PDA

View Full Version : 2004 Draft thread



Pages : [1] 2 3

Lance McAlister
06-07-2004, 09:27 AM
Just talked with Jeff Spellman of TEAMONEBASEBALL.COM
He tells me it appears the Padres have a deal done with SS Matt Bush.
He now says he thinks the Reds will take SS Chris Nelson or RHP Homer Bailey.

Dan
06-07-2004, 09:37 AM
We should have a "sticky" draft thread, shouldn't we?

Raisor
06-07-2004, 09:40 AM
Just talked with Jeff Spellman of TEAMONEBASEBALL.COM
He tells me it appears the Padres have a deal done with SS Matt Bush.
He now says he thinks the Reds will take SS Chris Nelson or RHP Homer Bailey.


If the Reds take Nelson M2 needs to be given a parade or something. He called that six months ago, at least.

I'd still take a college starter though.

WVRed
06-07-2004, 09:42 AM
Sounds like my idea of a good draft;).

Baseball America said Bush signed for 3.1 million, a little bit less than league average.

1990WorldChamps
06-07-2004, 09:48 AM
What time is the draft? Anyone?

wheels
06-07-2004, 09:51 AM
Boy...I sure hope he's right. Nelson is special by all accounts.

Hobo
06-07-2004, 10:16 AM
1:00P.M. via teleconference.

Hobo
06-07-2004, 10:18 AM
http://reds.enquirer.com/2004/06/07/red1nte.html
Terry Reynolds thinks it will be a pitcher. The Reds' scouting director isn't basing that on what the club needs so much as the way the draft stacks up.
"My guess is it will be a pitcher just because there are so many quality pitchers on the board," he said.

zombie-a-go-go
06-07-2004, 10:18 AM
If they draft Bailey I'll ... I'll ... do something throroughly dramatic.

WVRed
06-07-2004, 10:23 AM
If they draft Bailey I'll ... I'll ... do something throroughly dramatic.

Like dance a jig?:)

traderumor
06-07-2004, 10:24 AM
With our current prospects at SS (none) and the state of the position in ML baseball, in which Mark Belanger and Roger Metzger types are becoming standard fare again (Adam Everett and Rey Ordonez, just to name a few are employed, for example), if Nelson is all that and a bag of chips, sounds like a good grab.

Hobo
06-07-2004, 10:25 AM
I also hope it is not Bailey, I don't like drafting someone who could spurn you and go to college if they don't give him the money he wants. If they draft him they better be sure they can sign him.

zombie-a-go-go
06-07-2004, 10:26 AM
Like dance a jig?:)

A very unhappy jig. :mhcky21:

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 10:26 AM
I hope Sowers or Niemann is on the board when the Reds pick.

HS arms scare me, though if Homer became Kerry Wood in a few years I would get over that fear.

REDREAD
06-07-2004, 10:31 AM
Terry Reynolds agrees with Redread's prediction :)

Don't worry about the Reds picking someone that will spurn them. If the Reds
are as motivated about this draft as they claim to be, I'm sure they've already
worked the finances out with their finalists for the #1 pick. As cautious as the BinderMan is, I'm sure he's only going to pick a guy #1 that he can sign.
This is different than a couple years ago, when they deliberately flushed their #1 pick. (At least I hope so).

WVRed
06-07-2004, 10:36 AM
I also hope it is not Bailey, I don't like drafting someone who could spurn you and go to college if they don't give him the money he wants. If they draft him they better be sure they can sign him.

Wasnt JD Drew at FSU when he was taken by Philly?

M2
06-07-2004, 10:36 AM
If they draft Bailey I'll ... I'll ... do something throroughly dramatic.

Me too. Maybe Homer Bailey turns out to be a superstar, but as of right now he's just a HS pitcher. The Reds can't afford to blow another high pick on one of those - Gruler, Sowers, Howington (none of whom are pitching live games for the Reds at this moment).

If they pass on Chris Nelson, and it looks like he might be there, I'm gonna cry. If they pass on Nelson and don't take a college pitcher (Verlander, Niemann, Humber, Townshend, Sowers or Diamond -- one of them will be there), I'm gonna break things.

Essentially, Terry Reynolds must NOT be Terry Reynolds. If he hasn't learned anything from the days when he killed the Dodgers' farm system, we (and by that I mean all the fine people who root for the Cincinnati Reds) are in trouble.

Second Round suggestions - J.P. Howell, LHP Texas and Michael Rogers, RHP N.C. State

redsfan30
06-07-2004, 10:40 AM
What if Jared Weaver falls to 7?

Do you take him, knowing you may not sign him also knowing he could be this year's Mark Prior?

I've seen reports that he may fall because of signability.

Thoughts?

princeton
06-07-2004, 10:46 AM
Essentially, Terry Reynolds must NOT be Terry Reynolds.



As you wish. If he takes Homer Bailey, he will NOT be Terry Reynolds. He ran a lot of drafts but never took a HS pitcher with the first pick

my nightmare is the Maine HS pitcher. 97 mph and he probably throws 5 games a year. The Little Unit had the same profile

Hobo
06-07-2004, 10:47 AM
Rockies look like they'll pick Weaver if he's there, If he fell to us at seven it would show me alot about the Reds willing to spend money to succeed.

zombie-a-go-go
06-07-2004, 10:50 AM
I don't want a Weaver - madness is hereditary, after all.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 10:55 AM
Baseball America's Official First Round Projection
(confirms that Matt Bush has already signed with San Diego and will be drafted No. 1)

Reds
7. Reds: Homer Bailey, rhp, La Grange (Texas) HS

The Reds had hoped that Bush or Rogers would get to them, but their consolation prize is a nice one. Bailey is the consensus best high school pitcher in the draft. Cincinnati drafted Sowers in 2001's first round and failed to sign him—some would say by design—and might take a second chance should Cleveland pass on him.

Stephen Drew falls all the way to 19 to St. Louis and Weaver goes to the Yanks at No. 23.

Interesting enough, Chris Nelson goes No. 8 AFTER us.

Entire First Round:

By Jim Callis
June 7, 2004

1. Padres: Matt Bush, ss, Mission Bay HS, El Cajon, Calif.

The Padres initially narrowed their field to three players: Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew, Rice righthander Jeff Niemann and Long Beach State righthander Jered Weaver. With less than a week to go, they zeroed in on Drew, only to be stopped cold when owner John Moores abruptly decided that San Diego would not exceed Major League Baseball's bonus recommendation for the No. 1 slot, believed to be in the neighborhood of $3.5 million. That took Drew out of play, as he reportedly wants a package similar to the $3.6 million bonus and $4.79 million guaranteed big league contract Rickie Weeks got as the No. 2 overall pick last year. The Padres quickly switched gears to local product Bush and signed him the day before the draft for $3.1 million.

2. Tigers: Justin Verlander, rhp, Old Dominion

When the Tigers thought Drew was going No. 1, they focused on La Grange (Texas) HS righthander Homer Bailey, Niemann and Verlander. Though Niemann's offseason arthroscopic elbow surgery and in-season groin strain aren't long-term concerns, they prevented him from pitching at 100 percent and dropped him out of the running. Detroit did consider Drew when he suddenly became available, but ultimately decided to go for pitching. There's still a small chance the Tigers could cut a deal with Bailey, but Verlander appears to be their man.

3. Mets: Philip Humber, rhp, Rice

If Verlander gets past Detroit, the Mets will take him. With that not expected to happen, New York was locked in on Humber before Drew unexpectedly became available. Whether Mets ownership would approve the money to sign Drew remains unclear, but the consensus is they'll settle on Humber regardless.

4. Devil Rays: Jeff Niemann, rhp, Rice

Though the Devil Rays already have the minors' best prospect in shortstop B.J. Upton, their scouts quickly homed in on Redan HS (Decatur, Ga.) shortstop Chris Nelson. But new owner Stuart Sternberg and manager Lou Piniella believe Tampa Bay has a greater need for pitching, and they'll get their way. Niemann pitched well in front of a Rays delegation this weekend, and will be their choice unless his bonus demands push them to Bailey.

5. Brewers: Mark Rogers, rhp, Mount Ararat HS, Orr's Island, Maine

The Brewers have rebuilt their farm system from the worst to the best in the game in three short years, thanks mainly to high school draft picks. They'll start the 2004 draft with another, unless Humber unexpectedly falls to them. Rogers had as much helium as any of the top prospects as the draft approached, rising near the top of draft boards for several clubs.

6. Indians: Jeremy Sowers, lhp, Vanderbilt

The Indians would love to get a crack at a power righthander like Verlander, Niemann or Humber. That's unlikely to happen, so they'll go in the opposite direction with the draft's most polished college lefthander, Sowers. Before Bush went off the board, Cleveland would have considered him very seriously. Another Rice righthander, Wade Townsend, is a longshot.

7. Reds: Homer Bailey, rhp, La Grange (Texas) HS

The Reds had hoped that Bush or Rogers would get to them, but their consolation prize is a nice one. Bailey is the consensus best high school pitcher in the draft. Cincinnati drafted Sowers in 2001's first round and failed to sign him—some would say by design—and might take a second chance should Cleveland pass on him.

8. Orioles: Chris Nelson, ss, Redan HS, Decatur, Ga.

Add the Orioles to the list of teams that wish they could get a shot at Rogers. But Baltimore has to be happy with Nelson, whom scouts consider a safer bet to hit than Bush. If they can't get Nelson, the Orioles will opt for Pine Richland HS (Gibsonia, Pa.) catcher Neil Walker. Had Williamsport (Md.) HS righthander Nick Adenhart not blown out his elbow in May, he would have been a natural pick for his homestate club.

9. Rockies: Wade Townsend, rhp, Rice

The Rockies would love Nelson and will settle for choosing between two righthanders whom several clubs project as big league closers, Townsend and New Orleans' Thomas Diamond. There were rumors Friday that the Rockies would be the club to take Weaver, who reportedly wants Mark Prior money ($10.5 million big league contract), but those had disappeared by Sunday.

10. Rangers: Scott Elbert, lhp, Seneca (Mo.) HS

After using 2003's ninth overall pick on high school lefthander John Danks, who looks great so far, the Rangers will tab another prep southpaw in Elbert. The feeling is that Texas would take him over Bailey, though they won't have to decide between the two. If both high school arms somehow go off the board, the Rangers would snap up one of the Rice righthanders. Late Sunday-night rumor: Texas A&M lefty Zach Jackson might be in the mix. Wolfson HS (Jacksonville) righthander Eric Hurley also has been mentioned, but he'd be a stretch at No. 10.

11. Pirates: Neil Walker, c, Pine Richland HS, Gibsonia, Pa.

After ownership pushed the Pirates to take college players with their last two first-round picks, including the regrettable choice of Bryan Bullington over Upton with 2002's No. 1 overall choice, Pittsburgh likely will go the prep route. Among the players who possibly could get to them, the Pirates would take them in this order: Nelson, Sowers (the lone collegian), Walker and Crespi HS (Northridge, Calif.) shortstop Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe would come at a discount. Walker, their likely choice, has some extra cachet as a product of suburban Pittsburgh.

12. Angels: Philip Hughes, rhp, Foothill HS, Santa Ana, Calif.

After making this pick, the Angels won't choose again until No. 113 after surrendering their second- and third-round picks as compensation for free agents Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar. Anaheim's best-case scenario would be to nab Bailey, Rogers or Nelson, but they look like they'll be long gone. Plan B for the Angels is Hughes, Elbert or Hurley.

13. Expos: Thomas Diamond, rhp, New Orleans

The feeling early on was that the Expos would follow a similar path to 2003, when they took college reliever Chad Cordero at No. 20, signed him for below-slot money and expedited him to the big leagues. While William & Mary closer Bill Bray is a possibility, Montreal most likely will wind up with either Townsend or Diamond, depending on whom the Rockies leave them. If the Expos want to go for a super-budget pick, they could take Fresno State outfielder Richie Robnett, who should be available to them in the second round.

14. Royals: Billy Butler, 1b/3b, Wolfson HS, Jacksonville

With multiple first-round picks a year ago, the Royals slightly overdrafted players and paid them below-slot bonuses. Kansas City will do the same thing in 2004, starting with signing Butler on Sunday for $1.45 million, $200,000 under the estimated recommendation for the pick. Before choosing the fast-rising Butler, who began drawing interest from several clubs at the bottom of the round, the Royals had been linked to Miami (Ohio) first baseman Mike Ferris and then Boston College righthander Chris Lambert.

15. Diamondbacks: Bill Bray, lhp, William & Mary

The Diamondbacks have been trying to keep their interest in Bray quiet, but now it's an open secret that he's their target unless Townsend or Diamond happen to tumble. Arizona had Bray in for a workout the weekend before the draft and could sign him very quickly. The Diamondbacks' second choice is Oklahoma lefthander David Purcey.

16. Blue Jays: David Purcey, lhp, Oklahoma

The Blue Jays are looking at most of the same players as the Diamondbacks and in roughly the same order: Townsend, Diamond, Purcey and Jackson. Bray and Minnesota's Glen Perkins are the next two southpaws on their list. If Toronto opts for a position player, Oklahoma State third baseman Josh Fields is believed to be their target.

17. Dodgers: Zack Jackson, lhp, Texas A&M

The Dodgers were at the center of several rumors during the final weekend before the draft. Word spread quickly that new general manager Paul DePodesta will impose his "Moneyball" beliefs on scouting director Logan White, forcing him to concentrate on college players. However, that may also be a smokescreen designed to help players fall to Los Angeles, which has three of the top 33 picks. Those extra choices would make it easier for the Dodgers to gamble that they could sign Weaver, whose brother Jeff is in their rotation, but they have decided to go in another direction. For a while it seemed like Elbert could get to them, but now he won't. Los Angeles has kept this pick very close to the vest, but they may pick from a deep pool of college lefties and choose the polished Jackson.

18. White Sox: Josh Fields, 3b, Oklahoma State

The White Sox are known to be interested in college catchers and lefthanders, and three days before the draft word was that they would take Long Beach State southpaw Jason Vargas. But they can probably get Vargas (or a comparable lefty) plus a backstop in the supplemental first round. Chicago likes to draft athletes and is taking a hard look at Fields, a record-setting quarterback at Oklahoma State. Clemson lefty Tyler Lumsden could be another option.

19. Cardinals: Stephen Drew, ss, Florida State

St. Louis has bought into the "Moneyball" approach and has been thought to be after Fields for more than a month. if the White Sox break the Cardinals' heart, they could go for broke and select Drew. St. Louis GM Walt Jocketty has a history of signing Scott Boras-advised draft picks, including Stephen's older brother J.D. If the Cardinals decide to be more fiscally conservative, they'd probably select a college lefty such as Perkins, Jackson or Lumsden.

20. Twins: Glen Perkins, lhp, Minnesota

The Twins have three of the next six picks, plus two more selections between the first and second rounds. Despite initial rumors to the contrary, Minnesota will choose players based on talent rather than their willingness to accept below-market deals. The Twins have been on homestate product Perkins for a while and have to choose him here if they don't want to risk losing him.

21. Phillies: Jay Rainville, rhp, Bishop Hendricken HS, Pawtucket, R.I.

Unless Purcey somehow sneaks by Arizona and Toronto, the Phillies likely will go to Rocco Baldelli's alma mater and take Rainville. Other college lefties that they'd consider include Perkins and Lumsden. This probably is as high as Virginia Commonwealth righthander Justin Orenduff or John Connally HS (Austin) outfielder Greg Golson could go.

22. Twins: Trevor Plouffe, ss, Crespi HS, Northridge, Calif.

Again, the Twins will play the percentages here. The Athletics have let it be known that they're interested in Plouffe—yes, Oakland would consider a high schooler—and Minnesota might lose him if it waits until No. 25. If Trabuco Hills HS (Lake Forest, Calif.) shortstop Andrew Romine's price tag weren't so high, the Twins could take Hurley here and wait on Plouffe or Romine three picks later.

23. Yankees: Jered Weaver, rhp, Long Beach State

If any team can afford to spend $10.5 million on Weaver, it's the Yankees. Some sources say they'd welcome the chance to draft Weaver, while others say they wouldn't touch him after his brother Jeff couldn't handle the pressure of pitching in New York. Should Weaver fall past the Yankees, he could keep dropping until he hits the Red Sox (No. 65) or Cubs (No. 66) in the late second round. If the Yankees are going to spend big money, Drew might be a better fit and would plug their hole at second base. This much is certain: New York wants athletes and power arms to restock its thin farm system. Princeton outfielder/wide receiver B.J. Szymanski was a good fit here in the first category before a tough weekend in the NCAA playoffs made it likely the Yankees could get him at the end of the supplemental first round. They're in more than anyone on Woodinville (Wash.) HS outfielder/quarterback Matt Tuiasosopo, but probably can land him with the first pick in the second round. Pitching candidates include Hurley, Lumsden and Notre Dame righthander Grant Johnson. New York also likes South Carolina catcher Landon Powell.

24. Athletics: Danny Putnam, of, Stanford

It's "Moneyball II: The Sequel,", as the A's have six of the first 67 choices. Putnam fits their offensive profile to a tee, as he's a pure hitter with some power and very good on-base ability. Oakland GM Billy Beane is said to covet Powell, of whom one club executive says, "Powell is what ("Moneyball" author) Michael Lewis thinks Jeremy Brown is." The A's can wait two more picks before they have to take Powell, however.

25. Twins: Eric Hurley, rhp, Wolfson HS, Jacksonville

The Twins probably will come back with a second first-round pitcher here, with Hurley and Rainville toward the top of their list. If both high schoolers are gone, they could look to collegians Jackson and Johnson. If the pitching has started to thin out, Golson would be a possibility.

26. Athletics: Landon Powell, c, South Carolina

If the White Sox or Yankees pop Powell, Oakland's catching target will become Cal State Fullerton's Kurt Suzuki. The A's can comfortably wait until the supplemental first round for Suzuki, so if Powell is gone they'll probably choose the top lefthander on their board. Bray (if he slides), South Carolina's Matt Campbell, Alabama's Taylor Tankersley and Texas' J.P. Howell are candidates if that happens.

27. Marlins: Tyler Lumsden, lhp, Clemson

The Marlins have built their big league rotation around high school draft picks but figure to take a college arm to kick off their 2004 draft. Lumsden, Tampa righthander Eric Beattie and Vargas are the names mentioned most. Florida also is stronger than most clubs on Milton HS (Alpharetta, Ga.) Dexter Fowler, but perhaps not enough to take him at No. 27.

28. Dodgers: Mark Trumbo, rhp, Villa Park HS, Orange, Calif.

If the Dodgers are going "Moneyball," one obvious college choice would be Orenduff. But the guess here is that the rumors aren't true and Los Angeles will take a blend of college and high school picks. Local product Trumbo has some appeal to the Dodgers, even though he's a prep righthander and carries a reported $1.5 million price tag. If they choose him but can't lure him away from the University of Southern California, they'd recoup a supplemental first-rounder next year. Other high school candidates include Fowler and Monsignor Pace HS (Miami) lefthander Gio Gonzalez, but one or both should be available when Los Angeles picks again at No. 33.

29. Royals: Chris Lambert, rhp, Boston College

After appearing to decide on Lambert as the 14th overall pick as of Friday, the Royals switched to Butler over the weekend—but still may get Lambert 15 choices later. They're not as high as they used to be on Ferris, another of their early targets, and would be more likely to take Campbell or Gonzalez if Lambert is gone.

30. Rangers: Greg Golson, of, John Connally HS

The Rangers don't figure to venture out of state for their second first-rounder. If someone beats Texas to Golson, it could turn to Tremble Tech (Fort Worth) righthander Yovani Gallardo. Central Florida righty Matt Fox could be the Rangers' guy if they adhere to their usual college approach.

SUPPLEMENTAL FIRST ROUND
31. Royals: Matt Campbell, lhp, South Carolina

32. Blue Jays: Eric Beattie, rhp, Tampa

33. Dodgers: Dexter Fowler, of, Milton HS, Alpharetta, Ga.

34. White Sox: Jason Vargas, lhp, Long Beach State

35. Twins: Blake DeWitt, ss, Sikeston (Mo.) HS

36. Athletics: Taylor Tankersley, lhp, Alabama

37. Yankees: Grant Johnson, rhp, Notre Dame

38. White Sox: Jason Jaramillo, c, Oklahoma State

39. Twins: Justin Hoyman, rhp, Florida

40. Athletics: Dustin Pedroia, ss, Arizona State

41. Yankees: Jason Szymanski, of, Princeton

Raisor
06-07-2004, 10:57 AM
Please, no HS pitcher in the first round. Please. I ask for so little.

zombie-a-go-go
06-07-2004, 11:02 AM
Weaver falling to 23 = amazing.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 11:02 AM
Draft starts at 1pm, correct? I'm hoping we get either Nelson or one of the college pitchers.

Hobo
06-07-2004, 11:06 AM
Weaver to the Yanks c'mon, these draft rules have got to change. There needs to be some kind of rookie draft salary limit. Rich keep getting richer. :thumbdn:

SirFelixCat
06-07-2004, 11:15 AM
If Sowers somehow falls to us at #7, I can NOT imagine the Reds pass on him for just about anyone...agree?

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 11:16 AM
If Sowers somehow falls to us at #7, I can NOT imagine the Reds pass on him for just about anyone...agree?

I would hope the Reds would pass on him if Niemann was still there.

johngalt
06-07-2004, 11:18 AM
With all of the great college pitching and all of the trouble we've had with HS arms, I just do not understand why the Reds would pass on a college pitcher like Townsend or Sowers for Bailey or even Nelson if it comes to that.

M2
06-07-2004, 11:23 AM
Weaver to the Yanks c'mon, these draft rules have got to change. There needs to be some kind of rookie draft salary limit. Rich keep getting richer. :thumbdn:

IMO Jered Weaver will prove an excellent vehicle for extracting money from the Yankees' coffers while never pitching any better than his brother in return for that sum.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 11:24 AM
With all of the great college pitching and all of the trouble we've had with HS arms, I just do not understand why the Reds would pass on a college pitcher like Townsend or Sowers for Bailey or even Nelson if it comes to that.

I agree, however, I don't like hearing in write ups that Townsend and Diamond project as closers. If that's the case, don't draft either of the two. We need a legit "STUD" starting pitcher, and not a reliever that can get to the majors quickly like Wagner last year.

If no STUD starting pitching options are there, take Nelson.

knuckler
06-07-2004, 11:24 AM
Baseball America also lists draft-and-follows and 5th-year college players recently signed. It's not as glamorous as the draft, but guys like Calvin Medlock, David Shafer and Derek Hawk (all on the Dragons now) were draft-and-follow signees. The Reds didn't get anybody via draft-and-follow this year, but they did sign three 5th-year college guys:

OF Jeremiah Piepkorn recently started with the Dayton Dragons
OF Ashley Farr
LHP Adam Lingenfelter

I don't know anything more about these guys, although there is a thread about Mr. Piepkorn for the interested.

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 11:34 AM
What I really like about Sowers is how consistently good he has been in a great baseball conference. He sees better competition throughout a season than any of the Rice pitchers. I would still take Niemann over him, but it is close.

lollipopcurve
06-07-2004, 11:38 AM
I think if you're looking to get potential aces into your organization, and you're a small/mid market team, you could do a lot worse than taking the #1 HS pitcher in the draft. It's higher risk, higher potential reward. But we all know no aces are coming to Cincy via free agency. I am not saying the Red should or shouldn't take Bailey or Rogers. I'm saying I think it's a legitimate gamble, if they do.

Still, my personal preference is Sowers or Nelson. But I'm no professional.

Rounds 2-5 are what intrigue me. They are what will show what Reynolds is about, I think, as much as the #1 pick.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 11:39 AM
Anyone else catch some of the numbers Gammons quoted yesterday in his draft column

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1816317

In the 1989-99 drafts of first round picks
62% of College Arms made the majors
43% of HS Arms
65% of College Bats
60% of HS Bats

Then he also pointed out this


One club's study shows that from 1993 to 2001, $191 million was spent on first-round high school players, and $123.4 million of those dollars have never seen the big leagues. From 1991 through 2001, 49 percent of No. 1 picks out of high school made the majors, and of those 24 percent were regulars.

I wish I could remember who, but another Redszoner a day or so ago said he had the worst feeling about Nelson.

And besides, the kid's name is HOMER!?!?

Here's a bit from that MLB.com story on Bailey. Certainly doesn't inspire any faith that the Reds could make a smart choice

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20040602&content_id=759213&vkey=draft2004&fext=.jsp


La GRANGE, Texas -- One of the three cute girls standing by the desk in the office at the high school announced "Super Star" as Homer Bailey walked by. He smiled, but didn't stop to acknowledge the compliment.
Bailey, projected to be the No. 1 high school player taken in Monday's draft, has grown accustom to such adulation.

"Pretty much everyone knows who I am," he said of living in this town of 4,400 in central Texas, 100 miles west of Houston. "Sometimes it's a good thing. Sometimes it's a bad thing, because people who you never met decide you're best friends.

"There's always a jealousy factor in a small town. A lot of people don't see the hard work and dedication it takes."

When you're a 6-foot-4 right-hander with a 94 mph fastball, a 13-0 record and 0.57 ERA, people know who you are, from near and far. Coach Ralph Ferguson said 43 pro scouts attended Bailey's first game this season. And that was a scrimmage!

High school pitchers sometimes compile outrageous statistics against overmatched hitters, particularly in Bailey's case when you're playing at the 3A high school level.

But it's his nearly immaculate control that catches your eye. In 78 2/3 innings this season Bailey has struck out 180 and walked only 12. That's right. Just 12 walks.

"Throwing strikes is easy," he said. "I've always had decent control. You go after batters. If I want to throw a strike, I can."

Opponents are hitting a measly .089 against him.

"When they hit the ball, people (from the other team) cheer," Ferguson said. "Base hits are like they scored a run."

Bailey has allowed only 27 hits all season.

There's nothing fancy about him. He throws a fastball, curveball and occasional changeup.

"I live with the fastball and curveball," he said. "I can't really throw a changeup that much playing high school baseball. It's the only thing they can hit."

Frankly, the competition during the regular season can be lacking. La Grange won several games by the 10-run rule.

"Three-A baseball is not where I'm really challenged," said Bailey, who plays for the more competitive Houston Heat in the summer.

He was born to pitch.

Raisor
06-07-2004, 11:40 AM
I think if you're looking to get potential aces into your organization, and you're a small/mid market team, you could do a lot worse than taking the #1 HS pitcher in the draft. It's higher risk, higher potential reward. .

The "higer risk" part is why you DON'T take a HS pitcher with a 1st round pick, if you're a small market team.

M2
06-07-2004, 11:43 AM
I agree, however, I don't like hearing in write ups that Townsend and Diamond project as closers. If that's the case, don't draft either of the two. We need a legit "STUD" starting pitcher, and not a reliever that can get to the majors quickly like Wagner last year.

If no STUD starting pitching options are there, take Nelson.

I agree about staying away from relievers. OTOH, if the Reds think Townshend and Diamond can cut it as starters, then I'd be highly interested.

As for the pecking order, while I understand the organization needs all the pitching it can get, there's 0% doubt in my mind that Nelson is the signature player in this draft, a major league All-Star level SS in the making. To put this in terms Cincinnatians can easily identify with -- Matt Bush will be playing Akili Smith to Chris Nelson's Donovan McNabb in the future.

Nelson's the guy with star written all over him. In this case, I'd be label shopping.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 11:44 AM
The "higer risk" part is why you DON'T take a HS pitcher with a 1st round pick, if you're a small market team.

Well said, Raisor. I agree. Picking #7 you either have to get your STUD starter for the future, or a potential perennial All-Star position player and BOTH better be pretty sure things.

princeton
06-07-2004, 11:45 AM
The Reds didn't get anybody via draft-and-follow this year.

Peter Gammons wrote twice that RHPer Matt Harrington is working at Best Buy

I was thinking that the Reds might make a play for 2003 draftee 1b/OF Johntavis Character

Hobo
06-07-2004, 11:46 AM
"I live with the fastball and curveball," he said. "I can't really throw a changeup that much playing high school baseball. It's the only thing they can hit." Geez, he better be really good with his location, if he thinks he's going to get big league hitters out with fastballs and curveballs.

Raisor
06-07-2004, 11:46 AM
M2,

Here's why I'd still go college pitching, even if Nelson is still around. If you stockpile arms, you can always trade some to fill needs.

Much easier to move pitching for offense then offense for pitching.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 11:49 AM
M2,

Here's why I'd still go college pitching, even if Nelson is still around. If you stockpile arms, you can always trade some to fill needs.

Much easier to move pitching for offense then offense for pitching.

I would say that someone woke up today ready for the draft.

The last two statements you've made have been really good ones, Raisor. A lot of common sense in those statements that a lot of people overlook.

princeton
06-07-2004, 11:50 AM
The "higer risk" part is why you DON'T take a HS pitcher with a 1st round pick, if you're a small market team.

oh I disagree with that

the Reds do have to draft a guy that's going to work out. But that's because the system is a shambles, not because we're a small market team

if we had a more talented system, we could better afford to take a gamble.

Raisor
06-07-2004, 11:53 AM
I would say that someone woke up today ready for the draft.

.

Actually, I thought the dumb thing was next week until I logged on this morning.

:thumbup:

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 11:54 AM
MLB.com is saying you can watch the first 5 rounds on their website through streaming video. This is the first year for this isn't it?

Bill
06-07-2004, 11:56 AM
If Weaver and Drew drop to low 1r, it essentially means the Reds are drafting 9th in terms of gettign the 9th best player available. If Drew stays in, the Reds would have had a shot at either Sowers or Bush depending on which the indians took.

lollipopcurve
06-07-2004, 11:57 AM
If you're ideologically opposed to taking high school pitchers at the top of the draft, you would n't even look at Kerry Wood, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke. Again, I'm not saying the Reds should take a HS pitcher. But I do think it's shortsighted to advocate NEVER doing so. If you have a shot at the top HS pitcher in the country, you have to consider it seriously, in my opinion. Potential #1s aren't available for the choosing often. If Reynolds et al pull the trigger on Bailey or Rogers, I'll applaud them for not making the safe pick. You want high rewards, you have to take risks sometimes. Got to get outside the box every now and then.

M2
06-07-2004, 12:01 PM
M2,

Here's why I'd still go college pitching, even if Nelson is still around. If you stockpile arms, you can always trade some to fill needs.

Much easier to move pitching for offense then offense for pitching.

Thing is, I'm not interested in the Reds spending the #7 pick in the draft on trade bait. What I want them to pick is someone they'd never consider trading in a billion years.

For me, Nelson's that player. I'm not interested in any other position player on that pick. If Nelson's not there, then I'd be taking the top college arm on my board. I want the sure thing. In Nelson I really think the Reds are looking at a guy in the Jeter/Upton class. He's played top-flight competition and dominated. He's got a full compliment of tools and skills. In addition he's got "plus-plus makeup." It's like meeting a supermodel, nuclear physicist with a heart of gold who just won the Pulitzer for fiction and who thinks you're really cute and funny and can't keep her hands off of you.

M2
06-07-2004, 12:03 PM
If you're ideologically opposed to taking high school pitchers at the top of the draft, you would n't even look at Kerry Wood, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke. Again, I'm not saying the Reds should take a HS pitcher. But I do think it's shortsighted to advocate NEVER doing so. If you have a shot at the top HS pitcher in the country, you have to consider it seriously, in my opinion. Potential #1s aren't available for the choosing often. If Reynolds et al pull the trigger on Bailey or Rogers, I'll applaud them for not making the safe pick. You want high rewards, you have to take risks sometimes. Got to get outside the box every now and then.

The Reds have been outside that box three times in the past five drafts and it's gotten them nowhere.


the Reds do have to draft a guy that's going to work out. But that's because the system is a shambles, not because we're a small market team

if we had a more talented system, we could better afford to take a gamble.

Pretty much sums it up for me.

Puffy
06-07-2004, 12:03 PM
"I live with the fastball and curveball," he said. "I can't really throw a changeup that much playing high school baseball. It's the only thing they can hit." Geez, he better be really good with his location, if he thinks he's going to get big league hitters out with fastballs and curveballs.

I don't think he thinks he can get by with a fastball and a curve (although many pitchers have - see Doc Gooden, circa 1984). He is 17 or 18 and already working to develop a change, the problem he has is he can't use it against HS hitters cause they are already so late on his fastball that when they see the change (which I assume they still believe from his arm action is a fastball), they can now catch up to the change. In short, cause I'm not sure how clear that was - they see the fastball arm action, take their normal cut and now they actually make contact cause the change is slower.

But if he is already working on developing a change that is a good sign for whoever drafts him.

Puffy
06-07-2004, 12:06 PM
It's like meeting a supermodel, nuclear physicist with a heart of gold who just won the Pulitzer for fiction and who thinks you're really cute and funny and can't keep her hands off of you.

When did I tell you about my weekend?

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 12:06 PM
If you're ideologically opposed to taking high school pitchers at the top of the draft, you would n't even look at Kerry Wood, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke. Again, I'm not saying the Reds should take a HS pitcher. But I do think it's shortsighted to advocate NEVER doing so. If you have a shot at the top HS pitcher in the country, you have to consider it seriously, in my opinion. Potential #1s aren't available for the choosing often. If Reynolds et al pull the trigger on Bailey or Rogers, I'll applaud them for not making the safe pick. You want high rewards, you have to take risks sometimes. Got to get outside the box every now and then.

I agree the team has to take risks. But like the Gammons column pointed out.

If you were a gambler, and you had four choices, and three of the choices had similiar odds, but one choice had significantly lower odds, and you didn't have that much money to gamble with, which one would you choose?

I don't think many in this thread are advocating never picking HS pitchers, just not with the first pick. With so much money at stake and the Reds horrid recent history w/ HS pitchers (Gruler, Howington, Sowers, McClendon) - I would hope they are a tad more risk adverse.

lollipopcurve
06-07-2004, 12:12 PM
M2,
3 out of the last 5? Disagree -- what I said was that when you have a shot at the top HS arm in the draft, you have to consider it seriously. I'll give you Gruler. But Howington was not the #1 HS arm, nor was Sowers (and we all know the Reds had NO intention of signing whoever they chose that year).
Hey, I'm for drafting Sowers or Nelson. But bottom line is I'm against coming out staunchly opposed to the #1 HS arm in the country. The thinking is too rigid, in my opinion.

westofyou
06-07-2004, 12:13 PM
I agree the team has to take risks. But like the Gammons column pointed out.

If you were a gambler, and you had four choices, and three of the choices had similiar odds, but one choice had significantly lower odds, and you didn't have that much money to gamble with, which one would you choose?

I don't think many in this thread are advocating never picking HS pitchers, just not with the first pick. With so much money at stake and the Reds horrid recent history w/ HS pitchers (Gruler, Howington, Sowers, McClendon) - I would hope they are a tad more risk adverse.

I can hit on 17 and get 4 or I can play it safe and play longer.

I agree that one shouldn't turn their nose up at HS talent, but climbing out of a hole often involves small moves that are logically going to get you out of said hole. In my mind 1st round picks should not be the high leverage *what-if* picks when you're talent level is low (like your wallet whilst playing blackjack) make the best decision to keep you in the game and build up your war chest.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 12:18 PM
I can hit on 17 and get 4 or I can play it safe and play longer.

I agree that one shouldn't turn their nose up at HS talent, but climbing out of a hole often involves small moves that are logically going to get you out of said hole. In my mind 1st round picks should not be the high leverage *what-if* picks when you're talent level is low (like your wallet whilst playing blackjack) make the best decision to keep you in the game and build up your war chest.

I agree on a strategy to make the best decision to move forward.

But you ignore recent history at your own peril.

4 of the last 8 picks the Reds have made in the first round have been HS arms.

Not a single one of those picks have yet to throw an inning above AA ball for the Reds.

Something to think about.

ochre
06-07-2004, 12:18 PM
I am in the Nelson camp.

WVRed
06-07-2004, 12:19 PM
The Reds have been outside that box three times in the past five drafts and it's gotten them nowhere.



Pretty much sums it up for me.

We didnt have an inconsistent drafting sociopath as a GM either. We picked one high school arm(Chris Gruler) over the top lefty prospect in the Mets organization.(Scott Kazmir).

I understand the prospect of college arms helping sooner rather than later, but thats not necessarily the case. Most of the top pitching prospects or current pitchers in the game are high schoolers(see lollipopcurves list).

Best example-The Pirates wanted a college arm with the first overall pick in 2002. They took Bryan Bullington, who wasnt rated near as well as some of the other picks. Bullington may be 4th on the Pirates farm system, while two of the other picks(BJ Upton and Scott Kazmir) are top 25 prospects in baseball.

princeton
06-07-2004, 12:22 PM
in hindsight, Sowers was the right pick (had he been signed), not a Howington/Gruler quality-pick

the only guy drafted around that slot that you'd really rather have right now is 3bman David Wright, who went 18 picks later.

lollipopcurve
06-07-2004, 12:29 PM
Top 6 HS arms drafted in 2002
Gruler
Loewen
Everts
Greinke
Kazmir
Hamels
Cain

Top 6 college arms drafted in 2002
Bullington
Francis
Saunders
Ring
Brownlie
Guthrie
Blanton

That year, you had some great HS arms. It's possible to argue that the choice of Gruler wasn't necessarily a bad choice, but that the Reds worked him too hard, leading to surgery. It's plausible that the new 75-pitch limit (and perhaps other allowances made for newly drafted HS arms???) will curtail the risk of injury to young arms, making Bailey or Rogers safer choices now than Gruler was under a previous regime.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 12:29 PM
If Sowers is gone and Nelson is available, I want him.

westofyou
06-07-2004, 12:34 PM
I agree on a strategy to make the best decision to move forward.

But you ignore recent history at your own peril.

4 of the last 8 picks the Reds have made in the first round have been HS arms.

Not a single one of those picks have yet to throw an inning above AA ball for the Reds.

Something to think about.

Wait..... I agree with you. I don't believe a team as poor in the pitching department as the Reds need to go with high leverage what-ifs over lower risk players who are ahead in age, development and body growth.

princeton
06-07-2004, 12:39 PM
Weaver to the Cardinals?

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 12:46 PM
Wait..... I agree with you. I don't believe a team as poor in the pitching department as the Reds need to go with high leverage what-ifs over lower risk players who are ahead in age, development and body growth.

In the end, it's all a crapshoot anyway.

I say we just put all the players names in a hat and let each team pull out a slip of paper. You'd have about the same amount of luck.

wheels
06-07-2004, 12:50 PM
How many people stayed home from work for this?

I did.

That, and yesterday's game and subsequent sunburn.

ochre
06-07-2004, 12:53 PM
In the end, it's all a crapshoot anyway.

I say we just put all the players names in a hat and let each team pull out a slip of paper. You'd have about the same amount of luck.
Good point. While I had problems with many of their drafts, the Bengals are a prime example of this. The years they drafted wilkinson and carter, those were no-brainer picks that anybody else in the league would have likely taken in that situation. We all know how those turned out. Add to that the fact that the MLB draft is even more nebulous than the NFL draft and it really does look like a crapshoot.

westofyou
06-07-2004, 12:54 PM
In the end, it's all a crapshoot anyway

IMO it's a card game, the odds shift in favor to those who can count the cards that have come up in the past and factor that in when the game starts at their table.

Scouts are the guys that find the games with the bigger payoff.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 12:55 PM
CNNSI's Mike Fish

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/writers/mike_fish/06/04/draft.boras/index.html


Old guard baseball owners cringe at the mere mention of ex-union boss Marvin Miller. Well, the Lords of the Realm have similar antipathy for Scott Boras, too, especially when the amateur draft rolls around every June.

Some have dubbed Boras "baseball's most hated man.'' Forget that he has negotiated mega-million dollar deals for Alex Rodriguez and a galaxy of major league stars. What bugs baseball's bean counters most is the way Boras has used holdouts and stints in semipro ball to wreack havoc with the draft system and engineer a huge spike in signing bonuses.

As the amateur draft begins Monday, Boras again will be a major player, serving as the "advisor'' to a handful of top draftees, including Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew and Long Beach State right-hander Jered Weaver -- both of whom have been mentioned as the possible No. 1 overall pick by San Diego. Clubs already know they'll have to play hardball if they draft either, with Boras boldly suggesting the 6-foot-7 Weaver is one of those rare, ready-for-the-majors draftees who should be treated as a free-agent.

Boras' representation often has prompted teams to steer clear of his clients in the draft. It will be interesting to see if that is the case again with Drew and Weaver.

"It is a factor because of what it is going to take [to sign a draft pick], and obviously the track record of his clients being willing to sit out,'' said Kansas City Royals general manager Allard Baird.

Whether they appreciate his tactics, most baseball executives respect that Boras does his homework and routinely aligns himself with top players. Boras typically has no more than a handful of players in a draft. And as for impact, his firm claims that from 1983-98 all 29 of the college players represented made it to the majors as well as 19 of 24 clients drafted out of high school.

Scott Chiamparino, a top Boras assistant, rattles off a string of firsts and mind-numbing dollar figures: more than 50 first-round picks; the first $1 million player in the draft [Ben McDonald]; more than $100 million in draft contracts.

The firm's attention to detail hasn't gone unnoticed by the Commissioner's office. Boras has worked out a remedy with baseball for paragraph 17-B of the standard minor-league player contract for his clients -- which is prime evidence of why young athletes need a trained hand. The fine print in the clause permits clubs to terminate the contract within 90 days -- and retrieve their signing bonus in full -- as a result of a defect uncovered in physical, psychiatric, psychological and/or dental examination.

"Yeah, he's done good for the players,'' an American League club official said. "If I were a player I'd get him.''

So why is Boras considered such a thorn in baseball's side? Because he ruined a good thing. By instituting the amateur draft in 1965, the owners kept themselves from bidding up the value of top prospects. Draft picks had no representation from the union and a scant few had an agent/advisor until Boras entered the picture in the early 1980s.

Rick Reichart landed a $205,000 signing bonus from the California Angels in 1964, the last year before the draft. Yet it remained the fattest contract until the Mets signed Darryl Strawberry for $210,000 in 1980.

Not long after, Boras came along jabbing at the system and advising players to reject deals. When the Mariners refused to meet catcher Jason Varitek's asking price in 1994, the first-round pick played with the St. Paul Saints of the independent Northern League until the Mariners came around with a better offer. In 1997, Boras told first-round pick J.D. Drew to reject a $3 million offer from the Phillies. After a year in semi-pro ball, Drew re-entered the draft and bagged an $8 million deal from the Cardinals.

"People say what we're doing is holding out when in reality the teams are trying to crush the draft market because they don't want to pay fair market value,'' Boras argues.

It's this in-your-face attitude coupled with innovative maneuvering that burns scouts and makes Boras a hated name in some circles, especially when you consider the average signing bonus for last year's first-round picks topped $1.75 million.

"You're going to hear everything people write, saying you're going to drop in the draft and this and that,'' said J.D. Drew, recalling his controversial holdout. "You hear, 'Hey, this guy is this and that.' But Scott understands that he's going to have to be the bad guy sometimes, and he takes a lot of the heat.''

Boras claims the bad-mouthing by clubs, specifically local scouts, is actionable and, at its height in the mid-1990s, cost his firm clients.

"We could file a lawsuit against major league teams,'' Boras contends. "Every year these local scouts come in and say, 'This Boras is a bad guy. He's money hungry.' The traditional scout wants the guy to sign right away, get him going.''

Until the kid signs, Boras is nothing more than an advisor, holding the family's hand as it negotiates with the club. The tactic is used to circumvent an NCAA rule that costs an athlete his eligibility for signing with an agent, which is an important distinction since most draftees are either high school seniors or college juniors.

Boras says teenage prospects shouldn't even be messing with pro ball unless they're A-Rod. Or unless clubs are willing to guarantee the kid's future.

"I don't think high school players should be drafted unless clubs are required to pay the guys over $5 million,'' said Boras, without a hint of laughter. "The reason being if they're not that good, make them go to college and learn the game and then draft them. But if you draft a high school player you have to guarantee his future. And if the player is not that good the team won't take the risk. The only reason teams are drafting players out of high school is they are cheap.''

Only not as cheap as they used to be.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:00 PM
Under an hour to go...

princeton
06-07-2004, 01:01 PM
IMO it's a card game.

batter versus pitcher. Hit .300 and you could lead the league. Slug .550 and you're a star

M2
06-07-2004, 01:03 PM
M2,
3 out of the last 5? Disagree -- what I said was that when you have a shot at the top HS arm in the draft, you have to consider it seriously. I'll give you Gruler. But Howington was not the #1 HS arm, nor was Sowers (and we all know the Reds had NO intention of signing whoever they chose that year).
Hey, I'm for drafting Sowers or Nelson. But bottom line is I'm against coming out staunchly opposed to the #1 HS arm in the country. The thinking is too rigid, in my opinion.

Well, they had to have Howington in their top four HS arms in 1999, probably top three as the Expos took a reach with Josh Girdley. Sowers would have had to be top six, but I'd hazard a guess that they liked him better than Kris Honel and Dan Denham, possibly as much as Mike Jones and Colt Griffin.

And here's a list of the top HS arm taken in every draft of the '90s:

1999 - Josh Beckett
1998 - J.M. Gold
1997 - Geoff Goetz
1996 - John Patterson
1995 - Kerry Wood
1994 - Doug Million
1993 - Kirk Presley
1992 - Jim Pittsley
1991 - Brien Taylor
1990 - Kurt Miller

Important to remember that Becket, Wood and Taylor were considered extraordinary arms, far better than just the average top HS arm on the board. Homer Bailey hasn't been given that kind of pedigree. In fact, he may not ever be the first HS pitcher selected (unthinkable in the cases of Beckett, Wood and Taylor).



We didnt have an inconsistent drafting sociopath as a GM either. We picked one high school arm(Chris Gruler) over the top lefty prospect in the Mets organization.(Scott Kazmir).

I understand the prospect of college arms helping sooner rather than later, but thats not necessarily the case. Most of the top pitching prospects or current pitchers in the game are high schoolers(see lollipopcurves list).

Best example-The Pirates wanted a college arm with the first overall pick in 2002. They took Bryan Bullington, who wasnt rated near as well as some of the other picks. Bullington may be 4th on the Pirates farm system, while two of the other picks(BJ Upton and Scott Kazmir) are top 25 prospects in baseball.

First off, Bowden gave his scouting directors a lot of leeway. Second, a bad idea is still a bad idea no matter who had it.

As for the 2002 draft, Kazmir's currently banged up and struggling (6.23 ERa in High A). Bullington been coming around in AA, 3.93 ERA. The other top two college arms from that draft were Jeff Francis (2.12 ERA in AA and probably the best pitcher in the minors right now) and Bobby Brownlie (3.12 ERA in AA). Of course you've touched upon a larger point here. Forget about the HS vs. college arm debate if a guy like B.J. Upton's on the board. One might be for the Reds. His name is Chris Nelson. That's the pick you make if you want to banish risk from the equation.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:04 PM
2004 MLB Draft Blog
By the Staff of Baseball America
June 7, 2004

There's no bigger days in the Baseball America year than draft days, and this year we bring you our annual Draft Blog. Whenever one of our draft experts has a tidbit of information, a piece of analysis or an impression of something from the draft, you'll find it here.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday
11:35 AM ET: Monday Morning Rumor Dept.
As the baseball world continues to ponder where Jered Weaver might fall, the Cardinals may be the best first-round possibility. They've gotten deals done with Scott Boras draft picks in the past, including another guy who had a rumored eight-figure price tag, J.D. Drew.
-- Jim Callis

11:00 AM ET: Where In The World Is Jered Weaver Going?
That is the $10.5 million question. No team is claiming him as a possible first-round pick, and there's no sense that a club is lying in the weeds on him. He and adviser Scott Boras don't seem to be backing down from a reported desire for Mark Prior money, and he could slide through the entire first round altogether.
-- Jim Callis

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 01:06 PM
Link for the draft blog at Baseball America

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/2004draft/2004blog.html

Cedric
06-07-2004, 01:07 PM
M2 i've never heard that Nelson is even close to Upton. I'm not discounting you at all, just wondering why you feel that way? Thanks.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:11 PM
BA REPORT ON NELSON

Scouting Report:Indians infielder Brandon Phillips also went to Redan High, but Nelson is more frequently compared with such shortstops as Derek Jeter and B.J. Upton. While Nelson isn't tall and rangy in the new shortstop mold, he has athletic ability to spare, which is why he's expected to be drafted in the first 10 picks overall and ranked first on at least one team's draft board. Nelson's best tool is his arm, even though he had Tommy John surgery in the fall. He's made a full recovery and has shelved his low-90s fastball for good. Smooth and easy at shortstop, Nelson has fluid infield actions, plenty of range and good baseball savvy. He may be the first high school player picked, though, because he has a polished bat. He has a short, compact swing, makes consistent contact and has solid bat speed. He hit .582-8-36 this spring. Along with his strong frame, the package has scouts projecting him to hit for average power down the road. It's an enticing total package when Nelson's plus-plus makeup is added in.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 01:13 PM
If he is close to Upton then i'm all for it. I've never seen the kid play obviously, but that would do it for me.

WVRed
06-07-2004, 01:15 PM
Forget about the HS vs. college arm debate if a guy like B.J. Upton's on the board. One might be for the Reds. His name is Chris Nelson. That's the pick you make if you want to banish risk from the equation.

Agreed, but my point is that the top prospects in baseball are pretty much all high schoolers-

BBA Top 25-
4.Edwin Jackson
8.Greg Miller(blew his arm out though I think)
12.Scott Kazmir
13.Adam Loewen
14.Zack Grienke
17.Cole Hammels
18.Dustin McGowan(blew his arm out)
23.Gavin Floyd

Tsao is ranked 24th. After that, its mostly foreign developed players or college pitchers(Kyle Sleeth at 36).

M2
06-07-2004, 01:16 PM
M2 i've never heard that Nelson is even close to Upton. I'm not discounting you at all, just wondering why you feel that way? Thanks.

Like Upton, he does everything - speed, quick bat, short stroke, great arm, big range, great hands, great eye at the plate. When he plays in an All-Star tournament, he hits cleanup, plays SS and walks away with the tournament MVP trophy. Had he not had TJ surgery, he'd be at the top of everyone's boards. Someone's going to get a steal in the late single-digit picks this season.

BTW, per BA - "Nelson is more frequently compared with such shortstops as Derek Jeter and B.J. Upton." That's the class he's in.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:18 PM
Hopefully the Reds are just playing it close to the vest and just putting out rumors they're interested in a HS arm like Bailey or Rogers when they really want Nelson.

What if both Nelson and Sowers are available? Who would you want then?

WVRed
06-07-2004, 01:19 PM
Nelson.

Doc. Scott
06-07-2004, 01:19 PM
I think the Reds should take Nelson, but they probably will take Sowers or (grits teeth) Bailey. I'm okay with Sowers, but I'm not as intrigued.

Kc61
06-07-2004, 01:27 PM
How's this for a view. I don't care who the Reds take with the first pick. Nelson, Bailey, Drew, Sowers, high school, college, pitcher, whatever.

But: please no reaches (Gruler at 3) or unsignables (Sowers three years ago).

knuckler
06-07-2004, 01:28 PM
That year, you had some great HS arms. It's possible to argue that the choice of Gruler wasn't necessarily a bad choice, but that the Reds worked him too hard, leading to surgery. It's plausible that the new 75-pitch limit (and perhaps other allowances made for newly drafted HS arms???) will curtail the risk of injury to young arms, making Bailey or Rogers safer choices now than Gruler was under a previous regime.

I don't think it's fair to blame the Reds for Gruler's injury, given how long they had him before he went down. More likely, it happened during his youth baseball career, and the rigors of pitching more frequently as a pro simply finished him off. That's the risk with high school pitchers.

The reward, though is high. Kerry Wood, Roy Oswalt... And you have development time for young athletes to grow physically and in maturity, whereas college pitchers in general have less ceiling. Trust thy scouts, I guess.

zombie-a-go-go
06-07-2004, 01:29 PM
I want Sowers, then Neimann, and then, maybe Nelson.

I'd rather draft Weaver and lose him than take Bailey.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 01:30 PM
I want Niemann (who I think will be special as a SP), then Nelson, then Sowers.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 01:31 PM
Why Zombie? Have you ever seen Bailey pitch?

You are really painting yourself in a corner as a team if you will NEVER draft a high school pitcher. I'm amazed that people here are so sure that Bailey will faulter without most likely never seeing him pitch.

zombie-a-go-go
06-07-2004, 01:31 PM
Callis is now saying the Reds might be taking Woodinville (Wash.) HS outfielder Matt Tuiasosopo at No. 7.

Who???

johngalt
06-07-2004, 01:32 PM
From the latest Draft Blog Update at BA...

Crazy Last-Hour Rumor Dept.
The Reds may be considering Woodinville (Wash.) HS outfielder Matt Tuiasosopo at No. 7. He's one of the nation's top quarterback recruits and a very good athlete, but it's hard to believe Cincinnati would pass up players like Georgia HS shortstop Chris Nelson and Texas HS righty Homer Bailey to take him. Cincy probably could get Tuiasosopo in the second round, unless the Yankees take him at No. 42. New York reportedly is interested.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 01:34 PM
He's the Raiders QB's little brother.

He's got a letter of intent to go to Washington, but he wants to play minor league ball and college football at the same time.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 01:34 PM
That better be just crap they are throwing out there instead of a serious pick. No OF's in the first round, please. Especially ahead of Nelson and Bailey.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 01:35 PM
Washington qb signee, brother was a star and now with Raiders. Is said to be above average in every facet of the game.

zombie-a-go-go
06-07-2004, 01:35 PM
Why Zombie? Have you ever seen Bailey pitch?

No; but to think that this org will suddenly develop this raw arm when they've failed so many times before is foolish. I'm not saying it's impossible for Bailey to, someday, succeed, but rather that if the Reds take him they'll grind his arm into powder before he ever reaches the bigs.

And I thought he sounded like a little turd in his interview on MLB.com.

Yep, that's it. :mhcky21:

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 01:35 PM
If the Reds reach on their first pick, I will be very upset. The first draft for a new regime should send the right message. Taking a second round talent in the first round would infuriate me. :thumbdn:

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 01:37 PM
:help: :help: :help: :help: :help: :help: :help: :help:

gm
06-07-2004, 01:37 PM
Callis is now saying the Reds might be taking Woodinville (Wash.) HS outfielder Matt Tuiasosopo at No. 7.

Who???

Yes, that's Marcus' brother. The Raider backup was at the QB "Shootout" golf tourney this weekend (here in Portland) and was interviewed on the radio. Marcus talked about how Matt was going to play college FB unless he was drafted pretty high in the 1st round, etc

If the Reds actually select him @ #7...this place could get ugly

Cedric
06-07-2004, 01:37 PM
haha, I like your honestly man!

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:44 PM
12:13 PM ET: Crazy Last-Hour Rumor Dept.
The Reds may be considering Woodinville (Wash.) HS outfielder Matt Tuiasosopo at No. 7. He's one of the nation's top quarterback recruits and a very good athlete, but it's hard to believe Cincinnati would pass up players like Georgia HS shortstop Chris Nelson and Texas HS righty Homer Bailey to take him. Cincy probably could get Tuiasosopo in the second round, unless the Yankees take him at No. 42. New York reportedly is interested.
-- Jim Callis

12:25 PM ET: Has Drew Found A Home?
Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew may not tumble too far after all. The Orioles appear to be closing in on Drew at No. 8. The ripple effects: The Rockies take Georgia HS shortstop Chris Nelson at No. 9, and the Rangers could ponder taking Rice righthander Wade Townsend rather than Missouri HS lefty Scott Elbert at No. 10. At No. 13, the Expos would take Townsend, and if he's not there, likely William & Mary lefty Bill Bray or New Orleans righty Thomas Diamond. If Montreal winds up with Bray, the Diamondbacks would take Oklahoma lefty David Purcey at 15, and the Blue Jays would take Texas A&M lefty Zach Jackson if Purcey is gone at 16.
-- Jim Callis

MWM
06-07-2004, 01:46 PM
Roy Oswalt was a college pitcher when he was drafted.


The reward, though is high. Kerry Wood, Roy Oswalt... And you have development time for young athletes to grow physically and in maturity, whereas college pitchers in general have less ceiling.

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 01:49 PM
Why do I have a sense of doom with this draft? :( I don't trust Reynolds much.

I hope the rumors are a smokescreen.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 01:53 PM
Why do I have a sense of doom with this draft? :( I don't trust Reynolds much.

I hope the rumors are a smokescreen.

Well, within a half hour we'll find out. I kind of have the same feeling about Reynolds, but I'm hoping its all been smokescreen and they take one of the high ceiling players (Nelson, Sowers, Bailey) that is sure to be there ahead of a reach pick like Tuiasosopo.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 01:54 PM
I should add that seeing Nelson being drafted #9 and the Reds rumored to take an OF that has a football scholarship and brothers in the NFL does not make me feel good.

MWM
06-07-2004, 01:57 PM
Who knows, maybe this Tuiasasopo is the "Jeremy Brown" of the 2004 draft. :MandJ:

zombie-a-go-go
06-07-2004, 01:57 PM
Well, within a half hour we'll find out. I kind of have the same feeling about Reynolds, but I'm hoping its all been smokescreen and they take one of the high ceiling players (Nelson, Sowers, Bailey) that is sure to be there ahead of a reach pick like Tuiasosopo.

Yeah, but you would think that if the Reds were trying to be crafty they wouldn't throw out a "you gotta be kidding me!" name like Tuiasosopo, which no one is going to believe.... which means it just might be true. :eek:

Cedric
06-07-2004, 01:59 PM
It's not that out of the world, he's rated top 35 I believe from BA and honestly he's mucher higher on position player charts.

Puffy
06-07-2004, 01:59 PM
There is no way the Reds can take a guy like Tuiasosopa with the first round pick. He is going to college to play football. Even if he plays in the summer like he wants the Reds can't take the chance to develop him for four years and then have him go to the NFL. Not when John Allen stated the purge was so as to build thru the draft. Not after Dan O states the Reds are not signing free agents to stay the course and build a farm system. You have to take the best player on the board when you pick (i.e., Chris Nelson) to back up that plan.

Now I know that no matter who the Reds pick they are going to claim he was the top rated guy on their board at that slot - but Tuisosopa is a risk, a risk that he won't stick with baseball and a risk that he won't develop.

Now in the second round, OK, maybe - but with the seventh pick, no freakin way.

M2
06-07-2004, 02:00 PM
Agreed, but my point is that the top prospects in baseball are pretty much all high schoolers-

BBA Top 25-
4.Edwin Jackson
8.Greg Miller(blew his arm out though I think)
12.Scott Kazmir
13.Adam Loewen
14.Zack Grienke
17.Cole Hammels
18.Dustin McGowan(blew his arm out)
23.Gavin Floyd

Tsao is ranked 24th. After that, its mostly foreign developed players or college pitchers(Kyle Sleeth at 36).

Yet in just two months we can already perform a where-are-they-now on these guys.

Jackson - AAA 5.13 ERA, Majors 1.80 ERA (one start)
Miller - Blowout
Kazmir - High A 6.23 ERA, feared injured
Loewen - Low A 3.48 ERA
Greinke - AAA 2.51 ERA, Majors 2.37 ERA
Hamels - High A 1.13 ERA, started season on DL
MCGowan - Blowout
Floyd - AA 2.59 ERA

Already you're seeing a high attrition rate. And this is from the guys who've risen to be the cream of the crop. My guess would be that two of these eight turn into significant pitchers. Just a guess, but if you go through past BA Top 100 lists you'll see a high flameout rate for guys like them.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 02:00 PM
How many rounds to they complete on Day 1? I can't remember.

LvJ
06-07-2004, 02:00 PM
MLB.com radio = :thumbup:

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:01 PM
I can't get the draft up on mlb.com. crap

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 02:02 PM
I can't get the draft up on mlb.com. crap

I can't get audio because of company firewall, so I'm using this site:


http://teamonebaseball.rivals.com/draft.asp?Draft=41&Round=690

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:03 PM
Thanks Leader. My screen just says YOU ARE WATCHING MLB.COM

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:03 PM
Who knows, maybe this Tuiasasopo is the "Jeremy Brown" of the 2004 draft. :MandJ:

Heh, will we still be laughing when he's pulling a Jeremy Brown of 2004 - batting .174 in AA ball?

REDREAD
06-07-2004, 02:03 PM
Yeah, but you would think that if the Reds were trying to be crafty they wouldn't throw out a "you gotta be kidding me!" name like Tuiasosopo, which no one is going to believe.... which means it just might be true. :eek:


In all honest, I think this front office is completely uncapable of being
crafty. :)

I really doubt that clubs try to generate bogus rumors in the draft.
Every club pretty much has their depth chart. For example, we are
at #7.. Knowing the picks in #1 - #6 shouldn't change our depth
chart/talent evaluation at all. In other words, while it's good
fodder for the fans, I doubt other ML clubs really pay attention
to the rumors generated by other clubs.

A writer probably heard the Reds were interested in Tuiasasopo and
threw it out there. Maybe he is high on the depth chart due to signablity..
We'll have to wait and see, but I doubt it was a "smokescreen" attempt.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:03 PM
I believe they said they try to get 18-19 rounds done on day one and then 19 or 20 to 50 tomorrow.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:04 PM
What's the holdup? It's 12:05 p.m. CST. Let's get it on!

MWM
06-07-2004, 02:05 PM
Heh, will we still be laughing when he's pulling a Jeremy Brown of 2004 - batting .174 in AA ball?

The reference was to the fact that everyone pretty much laughed at Beane for taking the guy, but Beane didn't care. He took him anyway.
And BTW, Brown had a minor league career OPS of .870 coming into this year. I wouldn't write him off after two months of struggles.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:07 PM
3. Mets
Philip Humber -Rice

I missed the Tigers pick.

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 02:07 PM
mlb radio drops the ball.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:07 PM
What does everyone else see on mlb.com video player?

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 02:07 PM
Matt Bush selected first by the Fathers

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:07 PM
4. Tampa Bay
Jeff Niemann - Rice

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:07 PM
Neiman to the D-Rays

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 02:07 PM
I'm scared.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:08 PM
5. Milwaukee
Mark Rogers - HS

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:08 PM
Anybody get the Tigers' pick?

LvJ
06-07-2004, 02:09 PM
Tribe got Sowers.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:09 PM
Where are people getting picks at?

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:09 PM
Sowers to Cleveland

Doc. Scott
06-07-2004, 02:09 PM
Sowers to the Indians at #6.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:09 PM
6. Cleveland
Jeremy Sowers - Vanderbilt

We're up NEXT.

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 02:09 PM
Sowers to Cleveland. Ugh.

MasonBuzz3
06-07-2004, 02:09 PM
Tigers got Verlander

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:09 PM
moment of truth

zombie-a-go-go
06-07-2004, 02:09 PM
4. Tampa Bay
Jeff Niemann - Rice

Darn.

Doc. Scott
06-07-2004, 02:10 PM
Homer Bailey. No!!

redsfaninbsg
06-07-2004, 02:10 PM
Reds after a seeming long wait selected Bailey.

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:10 PM
David Bailey

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 02:10 PM
Homer Bailey.

halcyon
06-07-2004, 02:10 PM
Back to the HS arms...yay.

M2
06-07-2004, 02:10 PM
The future is when?

Hard to sum up how disgusted I am at the moment.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:10 PM
Can't blame the front office for this pick.

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:10 PM
No problems here if you think he is the best arm then take him.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:11 PM
A pitcher named Homer. Fantastic

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:11 PM
Townsend to Baltimore at No. 8

zombie-a-go-go
06-07-2004, 02:11 PM
Well, now that he's a Redleg, I'll be wishing him the best of luck, and praying to whatever'll listen that his arm doesn't blow up.

redsfaninbsg
06-07-2004, 02:11 PM
Why not Townsend? This blows our organization doesn't wanna win.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:11 PM
Nelson at nine i'm sure.

princeton
06-07-2004, 02:11 PM
D'oh

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:11 PM
Nelson to Rockies at No. 9

Red Heeler
06-07-2004, 02:11 PM
I think I'm going to throw up!!! :dflynn: :barf:

Reds select Homer Bailey.

Doc. Scott
06-07-2004, 02:12 PM
Nelson to the Rockies at #9.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 02:12 PM
better than Tuiasosopo, IMO. But NELSON :thumbdn: Can't believe we took a high school arm over a high school MI.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:12 PM
Well, now that he's a Redleg, I'll be wishing him the best of luck, and praying to whatever'll listen that his arm doesn't blow up.

Exactly. He's "our" Homer now.

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:12 PM
Nelson to Colorado

CougarQuest
06-07-2004, 02:12 PM
6. Cleveland
Jeremy Sowers - Vanderbilt

We're up NEXT.

:mad:

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:12 PM
Why not Townsend? He's a reliever in the making. Our organization doesn't want to win? That makes alot of sense.

MWM
06-07-2004, 02:12 PM
UN-FREAKING-BELIEVABLE!

Horrible. Horrible. Horrible.

Very discouraging.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:12 PM
Thomas Diamond to Texas at No. 10

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 02:13 PM
I'm concerned about the caliber of competition that Bailey saw in HS. In any event, he has a power arm.

I hope we sign him and manage to keep him healthy.

M2
06-07-2004, 02:13 PM
D'oh

Now how long were you sitting on that joke?

Good one, but I imagined it's been gnawing a hole in you.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:13 PM
11. Pittsburgh
Neil Walker - C

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:14 PM
12. Angels
Jared Weaver

Doc. Scott
06-07-2004, 02:14 PM
Weaver doesn't go until the Angels at #...12?

LvJ
06-07-2004, 02:14 PM
Funny how posters who aren't scouts talk crap.


Anyways, heres an article from BA on Homer:


There's not often a lot of fuss in La Grange, Texas. A town of 4,500, it sets off U.S. Highway 77 about midway between San Antonio and Houston, and beyond the Fayette County Fair and an air show, there's not much going on.

But once a week during baseball season this spring, La Grange became a must-see travel destination for major league scouting directors and crosscheckers. And they all came to see easygoing, hard-throwing senior righthander Homer Bailey.

David "Homer" Bailey Jr. is the real McCoy. He drives a Ford F-150 diesel pickup truck, wears boots and a cowboy hat and spends his free time hunting in the woods back of his father's egg farm. "Right now it's wild boar season," he says. "I cut the tusks out and keep a collection in my room."

Like the eye of a hurricane, the sanguine Bailey hasn't been caught up in the hype that has surrounded the town, yet he is at its center. He offers a mid-90s fastball, solid secondary pitches, a slender, projectable build and an unflappable demeanor strong enough to withstand a Texas twister. It has made him the most sought-after high school player in the draft class of 2004.

The 18-year-old has long been a big deal in his hometown. Texas has produced a bevy of pitching prospects, and it was clear Bailey was another one in the making as he cut his teeth against the state's tough competition. He has notched wins over current minor league pitching prospects Zach Segovia and Don Levinski, to name just a couple.

Legacy Born
As a freshman in 2001, Bailey was thrown right in to the fire and led La Grange High to the Class 3-A championship. He matched up with future Reds first-rounder Ryan Wagner, then a Houston-bound senior, in a regional final against Yoakum High and outdueled him to advance. Against Iowa Park High in the state semifinals, he took on lefty Chase Wright, a third-round pick that year by the Yankees, and dominated, winning 7-1. "He could do everything," recalls Wright, now with the Yankees' Class A Battle Creek affiliate. "In that big of a game to get the start, that takes a lot. Velocity-wise and good command . . . You could tell he had a chance."

A day later in the title game against Forney High, with the score tied 3-3 in the fifth inning, La Grange coach Ralph Ferguson called on Bailey in relief. He retired all eight batters he faced as La Grange rallied to win 4-3. As a 15-year-old, Bailey was the Class 3-A tournament MVP as the winning pitcher in the school's first state championship since 1973.

"When you're around baseball you just see certain talents, and you know they're special," Ferguson says. "He handled pressure very well from the beginning."

Bailey's fastball was touching 89 mph then, and his velocity has climbed each year. Despite his impressive credentials, however, he entered his senior season as one of about a dozen good righthanders in this year's prep class. While most of the others have faded, at least a bit, Bailey has surged to the top of the list.

He was brilliant from the season's first outing. He grabbed the reins in March, when he took on Weimar High's Ken Kasparek and struck out 10 over four perfect innings, touching 94 mph. From there, he dug in the spurs and galloped to the top of draft boards with a fearless approach and an advanced assortment of pitches.

"Absolutely," a scouting director said when asked if Bailey had surpassed Nick Adenhart, who was the top prep pitching prospect coming into the season. "I think he's got a better body, the ball comes out of his hand easier, he has more projection to him, he throws harder and has a sharper breaking ball.

"He's the epitome of a pure projection pitcher. He has plus stuff with a good breaking ball, and he even has a little change-piece now. And it comes out of his hand really easy."

Bailey did not allow an earned run until his eighth outing and wrapped up the regular season 10-0, 0.23 with two saves. He allowed two earned runs, striking out 144 and walking seven in 61 innings. He threw a five-inning no-hitter with 13 strikeouts in a mercy-rule 10-0 win over Hardin-Jefferson High in the first round of the playoffs.

Scouts said Bailey will add velocity as he fills out his spindly, 6-foot-4, 185-pound frame. He's pitched at 93 mph this season with plus command of all three of his pitches, including an 81-83 mph curveball with 11-to-5 break.

"He's always been able to have more velocity than the average pitcher out there, so everyone knew that he had some arm strength," an area scout said. "But to develop the secondary pitches that he has is a credit to how hard he's worked.

"It doesn't look like he's throwing that hard, but you pull out the gun and he's 92, 93, 94 and it's so easy and smooth."

Signature Of His Own
Easy and smooth are not often adjectives used to describe the big flamethrowers the state has produced so many of. The first image of Roger Clemens to pop into your head doesn't often incorporate anything resembling mellow. Even Texas high school product Josh Beckett has taken a liking to a rugged goatee and is known for his signature ripping of his right leg through the air after releasing a pitch.

But Bailey has produced similar results at the high school level with a smooth and fluid motion. His delivery has perfect tempo, and though his body is still awkward, his mechanics look comfortable and aligned, never forced or deliberate.

Still, his delivery and stuff draw comparisons to other pitchers the state has produced. And in an era when high school righthanders are picked apart by scouts looking for a reason not to spend an early-round selection and millions of dollars, Bailey stands up to the scrutiny.

"There's always going to be some risk involved with any pitcher you take," a scouting director said. "But there's going to be some people taking chances on this kind of arm. It's one of those rare ones that doesn't come along often.

"If you look at the state of Texas, two recent ones that have gone out of the state in the first five picks have had a little success: Beckett and (Kerry) Wood."

Bailey has a scholarship to stay in state at Texas, but as a likely top 10 pick in the draft, he's not likely to make it to Austin except as a visitor. He doesn't seem any more anxious about what lies ahead than he is about the collection of mud on his truck's tailgate.

"It's a tough position to be in, but at the same time it's really not," he says in the matter-of-fact fashion that epitomizes his humble persona. "If I was lucky enough to be taken in the first five picks, who would not go pro? If you talk to anyone who goes that high and says they're going to college, they're lying.

"It makes sense. If you go to college, it's not to pursue a career, it's to get better and go higher in the draft. If you go in the first five picks, you can't do any better than that. You have to take that advantage when it's there. You don't just pass up that kind of money."

So until the draft, Bailey will continue to savor the long summer evenings that allow him a little extra daylight for hunting. And La Grange will savor its easygoing, hard-throwing prospect for a little bit longer, before giving him over to the rest of the country.

redsfaninbsg
06-07-2004, 02:14 PM
I wasn't exactly saying draft Townsend as I said I was just wanting a College Arm not a High School arm. Hopefully it works out but rarely do these pitchers become studs.

redsfan30
06-07-2004, 02:14 PM
What are the numbers on Bailey?

What pitches does he have and what is his velocity like?

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:14 PM
13. Expos
William Bray

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:15 PM
We get one of the best arms in the draft, a guy who could be Wood, Beckett, Penny, or any other HS arm and people immediatly say he will blow out his arm. Amazing lets give the guy a chance.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:15 PM
The Angels have money now - that's prob. a good pick for them.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:15 PM
14. Royals
Billy Butler

WVRed
06-07-2004, 02:15 PM
Im somewhat split on this pick, I am probably one of the few who is high on Homer Bailey, but only if Chris Nelson wasnt available.

Its a good pick, I think Bailey will be a great pitcher if developed right, and should have went higher. I had Bailey over Sowers, but I have a feeling we will regret not taking Nelson.

redsfanbybirth
06-07-2004, 02:15 PM
All of you need to relax, besides the scouting video what have any of you seen of any of these players. The baseball draft more so then any other is a crap shoot. The later rounds are just as important as round one.

REDREAD
06-07-2004, 02:16 PM
I think I'm going to throw up!!! :dflynn: :barf:

Reds select Homer Bailey.

Well, I'm sure this pick is going to save us plenty of money and was reponsible for the industry :rolleyes:

I wish the guy well, but it appears the reds did not take the best guy available.

Buckeye33
06-07-2004, 02:16 PM
The Angels picking Weaver shows how much money DOESN'T matter to the new Angels owner. Oh how I long for the day the Reds have an owner who is willing to spend SOME money.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:16 PM
15. Arizona
Stephen Drew

Doc. Scott
06-07-2004, 02:16 PM
Stephen Drew to the D'Backs at #15.

MWM
06-07-2004, 02:16 PM
This hasn't ruined my day. I'm seething right now.

It's not the pick itself as much as what the pick represents. I've never been completely convinced the new regime knew what they were doing, but there's always that hope that things will be different. Now that hope is pretty much gone. And they just got here, too.

Am I over-reacting? Maybe, maybe not.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:16 PM
rarely does ANY pitcher in the draft work out completely as hoped. That's no reason to swear off high school arms all together.

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 02:16 PM
It's great that mlb's draft show is like 6 picks behind

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:17 PM
16. Toronto
David Purcey

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:17 PM
The regime doesn't know what they are doing because they picked the best arm available at the 7 slot? Explain that one too me.

Doc. Scott
06-07-2004, 02:17 PM
Toronto selects LHP David Percy out of Oklahoma. College pitching.

Ravenlord
06-07-2004, 02:17 PM
we draft the only guy discussed as a first round pick that i didn't want to see drafted.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:18 PM
17. Dodgers
Timonthy Albert

PuffyPig
06-07-2004, 02:18 PM
A couple of things to consider:
1. We picked the best high school arm in the country How can that be bad?

2. Alot of posters have not extensively scouted these players, yet are ready to jump off the bridge because their "guy' wasn't picked. I'm assuming that our scouts know more than alot of us. Homer was highly rated, and it's not a reach. He's a power arm.I'd rather go with him, than draft a college pitcher who's projected to be a reliever and has probably already maxed out his potential.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:18 PM
18. White Sox
Josh Fields

MWM
06-07-2004, 02:19 PM
We get one of the best arms in the draft, a guy who could be Wood, Beckett, Penny, or any other HS arm and people immediatly say he will blow out his arm. Amazing lets give the guy a chance.

Where did you see him being compared to Wood, Beckett, or Penny? He's not even in their universe. I never even heard him called one of hte best arms in the draft.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:19 PM
19. Cardinals
Chris Lambert

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:20 PM
Well, I'm sure this pick is going to save us plenty of money and was reponsible for the industry :rolleyes:

I wish the guy well, but it appears the reds did not take the best guy available.

Please tell me u are joking because if you arent this makes NO sense at all. He is the top HS arm means a few things: 1). NOT CHEAP, 2). At 7 not an overdraft, 3). He might have been the best guy available depending on who you talk to.

Doc. Scott
06-07-2004, 02:20 PM
The Cardinals take a college righty- Chris Lambert out of BC.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:20 PM
20. Twins
Trevor Ploof (sp?)

Ravenlord
06-07-2004, 02:20 PM
A couple of things to consider:
1. We picked the best high school arm in the country How can that be bad?all numbers aside, the sheer odds say that the Reds are better off with a HS skill position player in the first round than a HS pitcher.

traderumor
06-07-2004, 02:21 PM
M2,

I find it interesting that Bailey (HS pitcher I know) sounds like the MO for pitchers that you want in your organization. The BA article is awfully impressive, and I must say that the Reds will hardly be made fun of for making that pick. I know that Nelson was your boy, and I agree that he sounds like a stud for a deep, deep need in our organization, but so is Bailey's position. Why are you disgusted at the pick?

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:21 PM
21. Phillies
Greg Golson - CF (HS)

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:21 PM
it's not even close to a reach, Bailey isn't a signablitiy pick at all.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:22 PM
22. Twins
Glen Perkins - LHP out of Minnesota

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:22 PM
The White Sox picked themselves a stud. Fields is an incredible athlete, wait until he plays baseball full time.

The anti-Drew Henson

LvJ
06-07-2004, 02:22 PM
MLB.com on Bailey: MEDIUM-LONG FRAME. GOOD BODY. LONG, SLENDER, BUILD. HIGH WAISTED. LONG ARMS. LARGE HANDS. LOOSE, EFFORTLESS ARM. COMFORT ZONE 93-95 W/ LATE SINK. BALL EXPLODES OUT OF HAND. 11/5 CB W/ TIGHT ROTATION, SHARP K ZONE BITE WHEN OUT FRONT. EXCELLENT MOUND PRESENCE. YOUNG RHP W/ EXTREMELY HIGH CEILING. EFFORTLESS POWER ARM W/ PLUS PITCHABILITY.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:22 PM
23. Yankees
Philip Hughes - RHP (HS)

M2
06-07-2004, 02:23 PM
We get one of the best arms in the draft, a guy who could be Wood, Beckett, Penny, or any other HS arm and people immediatly say he will blow out his arm. Amazing lets give the guy a chance.

We have no choice but to give him a chance. Doesn't change it from being a pick with an exceptionally low chance of working out.

On a separate note, you'd think the league would give the Expos a draft budget since they're about to be sold. Bill Bray? Nice little pitcher, but no way he's going at #13 for any other reason than signability.

Bill
06-07-2004, 02:23 PM
They need both pitching and position talent. Position talent is thin this year, college pitching is abundant. That should have pushed them toward Nelson and college pitchers in later rounds. Just hope they did not pass on another Jeter.

Wonder if they have a deal already worked out with Homer? Could have been the deciding factor.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:23 PM
24. A's
Landon Powell - South Carolina

And the A's slew of picks begin...

Doc. Scott
06-07-2004, 02:23 PM
Oakland takes Landon Powell, C, U. of South Carolina.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:23 PM
I'd say for all of us who do and don't agree with the pick, what's done is done.

I hope, and I hope everyone else feels the same way, that Homer proves our pessism unfounded and goes lights out for Billings this summer.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:24 PM
25. Twins
Stephen Waldrup (sp?)

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:24 PM
Landon Powell is a player, that's one guy I have seen.

REDREAD
06-07-2004, 02:24 PM
Please tell me u are joking because if you arent this makes NO sense at all. He is the top HS arm means a few things: 1). NOT CHEAP, 2). At 7 not an overdraft, 3). He might have been the best guy available depending on who you talk to.

well, I was partially joking, but signablity was going to play a huge part in whoever
the Reds sign, and the ordering of their depth chart. It always has. No reason to think
that has changed, since Allen is still in charge.

I was hoping for the SS that M2 liked, mainly because we have no position player talent in
the minors other than Edwin Encarcion.. and we seem to have a very poor record at
developing any pitching (HS Or college).

It doesn't bother me though that he's a high school pitcher instead of a college pitcher,
like it does some posters.

So, in summary, I'd rather they grabbed Nelson (SS, is that his name)? And then grabbed
a bunch of arms later.

But hopefully Homer becomes the ace we are looking for. I'm pulling for him to get signed
and wish him the best.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:25 PM
26. A's
Richard Robnet (sp?) - Fresno State

Doc. Scott
06-07-2004, 02:25 PM
The the A's take a college OF out of Fresno State two picks later.

Buckeye33
06-07-2004, 02:25 PM
Damn, I was hoping Powell would slip to us in the 2nd round.

Question, If Drew is sitting there in the 2nd round (not likely) do you take the chance of taking him?

MWM
06-07-2004, 02:25 PM
A couple of things to consider:
2. Alot of posters have not extensively scouted these players, yet are ready to jump off the bridge because their "guy' wasn't picked. I'm assuming that our scouts know more than alot of us. Homer was highly rated, and it's not a reach. He's a power arm.I'd rather go with him, than draft a college pitcher who's projected to be a reliever and has probably already maxed out his potential.

Heck, using that philosophy we can't have an opinion at all unless we've scouted these players.

Are these the same scouts who scouted Chris Gruler and Ty Howington? The same scouts who wanted Brandon Larson over Lance Berkman?

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:25 PM
27. Marlins
Taylor Tankersley - LHP: Alabama

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:26 PM
28. Dodgers
Blake Dewitt - 2B (HS)

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:26 PM
Your No. 1 pick in 2004 - Homer Bailey of La Grange, HS

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:26 PM
Buckeye33- Drew already was drafted.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:27 PM
29. Kansas City
Matt Campbell - LHP of South Carolina

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:27 PM
Honestly even with bad precedent I still can't imagine how anyone here would be willing to put their evaluations over the Reds scouts, seems egotistical to me.
I mean these guys are scouting 24/7 for a living, it's not our job and we don't have the pressure they have. If they fail they lose their livelyhood, we fail we NEVER mention it /:)

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:28 PM
30. Texas
Eric Hearly - HS

15 minute break until supplemental round

M2
06-07-2004, 02:28 PM
M2,

I find it interesting that Bailey (HS pitcher I know) sounds like the MO for pitchers that you want in your organization. The BA article is awfully impressive, and I must say that the Reds will hardly be made fun of for making that pick. I know that Nelson was your boy, and I agree that he sounds like a stud for a deep, deep need in our organization, but so is Bailey's position. Why are you disgusted at the pick?

They all get nice writeups, but the chances of Homer Bailey staying healthy and putting together a successful pitching repertoire are minimal. His age and level of advancement make him a highly toxic pick.

It's not uncommon for hard-throwing HS pitchers lose velocity as they mature, particularly ones who throw a lot of curveballs. The Reds could have selected a college pitcher with just as much stuff, a better chance of maintaining their stuff, a better chance of staying healthy and a better chance of reaching their ceilings. Or they could have just drafted the flawless SS prospect. Instead we get Homer Mottola, I mean Bailey.

MattyHo4Life
06-07-2004, 02:29 PM
Do any of you guys know anyhing about the Cardinals pick, Chris Lambert? He's one guy I haven't heard much about.

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:29 PM
For the record to avoid any confusion Bailey was the #3 rated prospect by Baseball America. So that should avoid an accusation of being an overdraft. I hope the Reds do have a deal with him, and if they do get him to Billings.

halcyon
06-07-2004, 02:29 PM
Cedric,
I don't recall very many posters saying that Bailey isn't talented enough to merit where he was chosen, but I think they are saying that HS pitchers are a risk they can't afford to take w/ the Reds shallow system. Course, this has only been stated a hundred thousand times on the board, so I don't know why I repeat it.

Stormy
06-07-2004, 02:29 PM
M2,

I find it interesting that Bailey (HS pitcher I know) sounds like the MO for pitchers that you want in your organization. The BA article is awfully impressive, and I must say that the Reds will hardly be made fun of for making that pick. I know that Nelson was your boy, and I agree that he sounds like a stud for a deep, deep need in our organization, but so is Bailey's position. Why are you disgusted at the pick?

Because he's familiar with the studies which indicate that the chances of a HS power arm like Bailey's chances of making it to a MLB roster are infinitesimal. One could disregard the league-wide research and just use the Reds organization as their own case study on the effectiveness of taking a HS arm early in recent drafts: Howington, Gruler, Gilman - not to mention the bevy of those we've traded for which have since made their journey to the operating table. There were polished, quality college arms available at our spot and we past. There was an exceptional quality MI available at the same spot... and instead we went the wrong route, again.

Bailey's profile and video look impressive, but then again, so did Gruler's and Howington's and Gilman's etc... I like everything I have read, heard, seen about Homer Bailey, but it seems like an exceptionally risky pick for a new regime attempting to avoid the same pattern of mistakes which sunk the previous regime.

Buckeye33
06-07-2004, 02:30 PM
Oops...who got him? I'm on dial-up at work. Hard to keep up.

LvJ
06-07-2004, 02:30 PM
:rolleyes: :rolleyes: Good God people.

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:30 PM
They all get nice writeups, but the chances of Homer Bailey staying healthy and putting together a successful pitching repertoire are minimal. His age and level of advancement make him a highly toxic pick.

It's not uncommon for hard-throwing HS pitchers lose velocity as they mature, particularly ones who throw a lot of curveballs. The Reds could have selected a college pitcher with just as much stuff, a better chance of maintaining their stuff, a better chance of staying healthy and a better chance of reaching their ceilings. Or they could have just drafted the flawless SS prospect. Instead we get Homer Mottola, I mean Bailey.

Someone has been drinking a little bit too much of the moneyball Kool-aid.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:30 PM
It's also been stated few thousand times that Bailey isn't an overdraft, yet people still clamor that the Front office doesn't want to win and that they only care about signability.

WVRed
06-07-2004, 02:30 PM
Heres hoping BJ Syzmanski from Princeton is there, this guy looks like he could be a good pick.

PuffyPig
06-07-2004, 02:31 PM
Heck, using that philosophy we can't have an opinion at all unless we've scouted these players.

Are these the same scouts who scouted Chris Gruler and Ty Howington? The same scouts who wanted Brandon Larson over Lance Berkman?

Everyone can have an opinion, it's just that the majority of posters here have little real idea who the best player available is. Even scouts have mixed opinions, yet the experts here are talking like their opinion is more important that our scouts.


most picks don't work out for all teams. that's the nature of the draft. We've had a number of players like Dunn and Kearns that have worked out well.

The Braves are one team that has gone with HS talent over College talent for years, with great success. Shying away from HS pitchers because of a poor track record would be foolhardy.

gm
06-07-2004, 02:31 PM
So, Terry Reynolds never drafts HS arms, eh? I wonder who talked him into selecting Bailey, then?

No one can say that O'Binder isn't O'Ballsy

Send Homer Vern Ruhle's way. The Red's player development department is sending a message "We CAN develop young starting pitching"

Despite past organizational failures in this area

Another positive step in this direction would be to lure (minor league pitching instructor and former BRM standout) Jack Billingham away from the Houston system, IMO

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:32 PM
I NEVER said someone can't have an opinion on who is a better player or a safer pick. I just said it's a bit extreme to act like you are one hundred percent sure of it, and the Reds are just wasting picks.

Dan
06-07-2004, 02:32 PM
One could disregard the league-wide research and just use the Reds organization as their own case study on the effectiveness of taking a HS arm early in recent drafts:

I can't think of the last HS arm that the Reds drafted and developed all the way to a ML pitcher. Scott Scudder perhaps?

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:33 PM
Someone has been drinking a little bit too much of the moneyball Kool-aid.

mmm...Koolaid

redsfaninbsg
06-07-2004, 02:33 PM
Does Bailey automatically go to Bilings? Why not start him in A or AA ball and see what happens. If he struggles you can always move him down.

traderumor
06-07-2004, 02:33 PM
Do any of you guys know anyhing about the Cardinals pick, Chris Lambert? He's one guy I haven't heard much about.
I don't Matty, but I just wanted to let you know you were missed around here but saw you posting again the other day. Welcome back. :thumbup:

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:34 PM
ENTIRE FIRST ROUND

1 (1) Matt Bush San Diego Padres INF Mission Bay HS
(Bush becomes only the fifth high school SS to ever be chosen first overall in the 2004 Draft.)

2 (2) Justin Verlander Old Dominion University RHP

3 (3) Phil Humber New York Mets P Rice University
Humber is the first of three Rice players to be drafted among the first eight overall picks.

4 (4) Jeff Niemann Tampa Bay Devil Rays P Rice University
Niemann is one of the most physically dominant players in the Draft.

5 (5) Mark Rogers Milwaukee Brewers P Mt. Ararat HS
Milwaukee loves high school players with big upsides. Rogers fits the bill.

6 (6) Jeremy Sowers Cleveland Indians P Vanderbilt

7 (7) Homer Bailey Cincinnati Reds P LaGrange HS

8 (8) Wade Townsend Baltimore Orioles P Rice University

9 (9) Chris Nelson Colorado Rockies INF Redan HS

10 (10) Thomas Diamond Texas Rangers P New Orleans

11 (11) Neil Walker Pittsburgh Pirates C Pine-Richland HS

12 (12) Jered Weaver Anaheim Angels P Long Beach State

13 (13) Bill Bray Montreal Expos P William and Mary

14 (14) Billy Butler Kansas City Royals 1B Wolfson HS

15 (15) Stephen Drew Arizona Diamondbacks INF Florida State University

16 (16) David Purcey Toronto Blue Jays P University of Oklahoma

17 (17) Scott Elbert Los Angeles Dodgers P Seneca HS

18 (18) Josh Fields Chicago White Sox 3B Oklahoma State University

19 (19) Chris Lambert St. Louis Cardinals P Boston College

20 (20) Trevor Plouffe Minnesota Twins P Crespi HS

21 (21) Greg Golson Philadelphia Phillies OF Connally HS

22 (22) Glen Perkins Minnesota Twins P Univ. of Minnesota
(Draft choice from Seattle as compensation for Eddie Guardado.)

23 (23) Phil Hughes New York Yankees P Foothill HS
(Draft choice from Houston as compensation for Andy Pettitte)

24 (24) Landon Powell Oakland Athletics C University of South Carolina
(Draft choice from Boston as compensation for Keith Foulke)

25 (25) Kyle Waldrop Minnesota Twins 1B Farragut HS
(Draft choice from Chicago Cubs as compensation for LaTroy Hawkins)

26 (26) Richie Robnett Oakland Athletics OF Fresno State

27 (27) Taylor Tanksersley Florida Marlins P University of Alabama

28 (28) Blake DeWitt Los Angeles Dodgers 3B Sikeston HS
(Draft choice from New York Yankees as compensation for Paul Quantrill)

29 (29) Matt Campbell Kansas City Royals P University of South Carolina
(Draft choice from San Francisco as compensation for Michael Tucker)

30 (30) Eric Hurley Texas Rangers P Wolfson HS
(Draft choice from Atlanta as compensation for John Thomson)

Stormy
06-07-2004, 02:34 PM
Someone has been drinking a little bit too much of the moneyball Kool-aid.

Who was the last HS arm the Reds drafted in an early round to pitch a single inning as a Starter in the majors? And when you realize who the last one was, you'll also realize that it hasn't been for a lack of trying, as we've drafted a high number of them since he was selected.

M2
06-07-2004, 02:35 PM
The regime doesn't know what they are doing because they picked the best arm available at the 7 slot? Explain that one too me.

IMO, this selection stands as fairly compelling evidence that the people who made the decision aren't capable of finding the best arm/player available.

I hope like hell I'm wrong about this, but the Reds draft folks (led by a guy with just about the worst track record in the business) just took a mammoth risk with their first pick. Why does anyone think Terry Reynolds is going to beat a set of long odds?

ochre
06-07-2004, 02:35 PM
"It doesn't look like he's throwing that hard, but you pull out the gun and he's 92, 93, 94 and it's so easy and smooth."
from the Homer report. That's the reason I am willing to give this kid a chance (up until Bench says he's better than seaver anyway), but I am terribly dissappointed the Reds didn't take nelson in that slot...

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:37 PM
Who was the last HS arm the Reds drafted in an early round to pitch a single inning as a Starter in the majors? And when you realize who the last one was, you'll also realize that it hasn't been for a lack of trying, as we've drafted a high number of them since he was selected.

They have also failed with numerous college pitchers. But if you as a GM and scouting director feel Bailey is the best player you take him it is that simple. If he turns into Zach Greinke that is wonderful. Odds are it will take him 3 yrs at minimum to get to the majors. But most college pitchers also take 2 yrs to get to the majors. With his potential and upsdie this definitly not a bad pick.

PuffyPig
06-07-2004, 02:38 PM
I notr that baseball Americe picked the first 9 picks correctly.

Yes picking a HS pitcher pitcher in the first round is risky, but so is every pick you make and no matter who you pick.

There is no evidence that favouring college players over HS kids improves your chances of getting a star plalyer.

MattyHo4Life
06-07-2004, 02:39 PM
I don't Matty, but I just wanted to let you know you were missed around here but saw you posting again the other day. Welcome back. :thumbup:

Thanks TR... I couldn't miss the draft thread at Redszone. You guys have some of the most knowledgeable posters on the draft.

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:39 PM
IMO, this selection stands as fairly compelling evidence that the people who made the decision aren't capable of finding the best arm/player available.

I hope like hell I'm wrong about this, but the Reds draft folks (led by a guy with just about the worst track record in the business) just took a mammoth risk with their first pick. Why does anyone think Terry Reynolds is going to beat a set of long odds?

The Braves, Marlins, Cubs, and many others have continually "beaten the odds". Maybe the Reds will start it with Bailey.

westofyou
06-07-2004, 02:41 PM
Odds are it will take him 3 yrs at minimum to get to the majors.

If we're talking *odds* then recent odds are he'll have a scar on his arm before those 3 years get here.

MWM
06-07-2004, 02:41 PM
Bailey's profile and video look impressive, but then again, so did Gruler's and Howington's and Gilman's etc... I like everything I have read, heard, seen about Homer Bailey, but it seems like an exceptionally risky pick for a new regime attempting to avoid the same pattern of mistakes which sunk the previous regime.

Bingo!

Why all the love affairs with the scouts? I'm hearing a lot of "scouts know what they're doing. Scouts are out there 24/7 watching." How often are these same scouts corect in their assessments? Then, how often to they fall in love with guys like Bailey just to have them flame out as they mature and face better competition? Scouts don't exactly have the best track record, so why should we just put our faith in these guys who are wrong more often than they are right. It's about the approach, the philosophy. NOt the actual player. Ignoring the overwhelming evidence in favor of a few scouts who have watched a guy face small school comeptition out in the middle of nowhere in Texas is nothing short of foolish.

I thought things would be different. Apparently not.

MWM
06-07-2004, 02:42 PM
Someone has been drinking a little bit too much of the moneyball Kool-aid.

Nice, well-reasoned comeback. Specifically, which part of his post was wrong?

MasonBuzz3
06-07-2004, 02:42 PM
Homer Bailey is on the mlb.tv draft coverage right now

princeton
06-07-2004, 02:43 PM
three observations:

1. the Reds have a lot of faith in 8 man rotations to keep guys like Homer Bailey healthy. Hopefully, that's warranted, but they're basing that on very little data

2. the Reds have not turned over the developmental department. Why?

3. Weaver, if he signs for less than $4mill, easily made the most sense. Let's see what he does sign for.

WVRed
06-07-2004, 02:43 PM
Bingo!

Why all the love affairs with the scouts? I'm hearing a lot of "scouts know what they're doing. Scouts are out there 24/7 watching." How often are these same scouts corect in their assessments? Then, how often to they fall in love with guys like Bailey just to have them flame out as they mature and face better competition? Scouts don't exactly have the best track record, so why should we just put our faith in these guys who are wrong more often than they are right. It's about the approach, the philosophy. NOt the actual player. Ignoring the overwhelming evidence in favor of a few scouts who have watched a guy face small school comeptition out in the middle of nowhere in Texas is nothing short of foolish.

I thought things would be different. Apparently not.

Maybe we are going the Minnesota Twins route instead of the Oakland Athletics :D

Bill
06-07-2004, 02:43 PM
Syzmanski worked out at a Reds tryout when he was only playing FB. The Reds told him they liked what they saw and he should play college BB. Too bad they did not sign him there (if he was willing to play in the summers).

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:44 PM
Bingo!

Why all the love affairs with the scouts? I'm hearing a lot of "scouts know what they're doing. Scouts are out there 24/7 watching." How often are these same scouts corect in their assessments? Then, how often to they fall in love with guys like Bailey just to have them flame out as they mature and face better competition? Scouts don't exactly have the best track record, so why should we just put our faith in these guys who are wrong more often than they are right. It's about the approach, the philosophy. NOt the actual player. Ignoring the overwhelming evidence in favor of a few scouts who have watched a guy face small school comeptition out in the middle of nowhere in Texas is nothing short of foolish.

I thought things would be different. Apparently not.

So a guy who at most has seen a 30 second video clip of a kid is a much better evaluator of talent then a scout?? Glad to know I always thought the guy who did talent eval. for a living had I better idea, but today I have found out that guys who are sitting behind a desk at work has a better idea because he read moneyball and saw a 30 second video clip.