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M2
03-09-2006, 05:04 PM
Someone's going to be the surprise of spring training. I'm not talking about a guy like Edwin Encarnacion here. We knew he was good. I'm talking about a guy coming from nowhere and making a big impression.

Right now Mike Gosling has the lead in that category, but I'm thinking Jimmy Journell could be the guy who really steps up. He throws as hard as anyone the Reds have got.

TRF
03-09-2006, 05:14 PM
Kozlowski could be the guy. It's doubtfull we'll see a sleeper out of the position players.

Sadly, it might be Homer. I say sadly because if it is, you just know the Reds will overpromote.

membengal
03-09-2006, 05:21 PM
Great thread M2.

With Milton's balky calf/leg/whatever and Wilson's arm, I am really hoping an arm comes out of nowhere to provide a legitmate "other" option.

I have not heard much from Journell, he intrigues. Gosling's numbers are indeed solid so far. But I saw Koz in AA last year, and have real hopes for him.

Red Leader
03-09-2006, 05:25 PM
I'm going to go with Kozlowski as well. He's pitched pretty well to this point, and should get stronger as the spring goes on.

Johnny Footstool
03-09-2006, 05:30 PM
Looks like he had some rotator cuff problems in the past. Journell's got an excellent minor league K ratio, but his control seemed to vanish in '04 and '05 following the injury.

If he can strike batters out, I'm rooting for him.

ochre
03-09-2006, 06:33 PM
Ahh the "who is the next Josias" informal poll :)


Manzanillo came to spring training as a non-roster invitee on a minor-league contract after the Pirates released him last August, a move he says he fully understood given the fact his right elbow wasn't sound. But he quickly became the feel-good story of the spring. He gave up just one run in 12 Grapefruit League innings to win a spot on the team, and he pounded his fists and more or less danced back to the dugout at the end of each inning to win the hearts of the Sarasota faithful.
http://www.cincypost.com/2003/04/03/reds04-03-2003.html

Ravenlord
03-09-2006, 07:06 PM
i'm thinking Coffey of the regulars/semi-regulars if the Reds follow through on Soto's advice.

i think Gosling will make the team, but i'm not sure he'll perform in the regular season. Tommy Phelps is the one i expect to be the real seasonal surprise.

and of the position players, i'm going with Tuffy Rhodes.

MartyFan
03-09-2006, 07:26 PM
Raven:

All the names you mentioned are who I was first thinking of when I read the post. I agree that Gosling will make the squad...I think that perhaps Phelps will make the team too.

Falls City Beer
03-09-2006, 07:43 PM
Why Phelps? Isn't he basically Lance Davis without the substance abuse problems?

Ravenlord
03-09-2006, 08:16 PM
Why Phelps? Isn't he basically Lance Davis without the substance abuse problems?
by being surprising i mean slightly better than league average for a LOOGY. and i think Lance Davis probably would have had a better career than Phelps has.

Phelps has decent stuff, he's pretty consistant with it too. last year was the first time he was really given a chance, and he summarily spent most of the year on the DL with various strains and pulls (wheather that's always the case is anyone's guess). he's also 32 and lefthanded, so he could be finally at his peak (albeit it'll probably only last a year).

Crash Davis
03-09-2006, 08:41 PM
Why Phelps? Isn't he basically Lance Davis without the substance abuse problems?

Phelps has a career MLB under 3.00 as a reliever. I think he can match Mercker.

However, my pick is Mike Burns. If he can find a pitch to neutralize lefties, watch out.

lollipopcurve
03-09-2006, 09:03 PM
Media-anointed sleeper -- Burns or Gosling

My sleeper -- DeWayne Wise

Crash Davis
03-09-2006, 10:20 PM
Someone's going to be the surprise of spring training. I'm not talking about a guy like Edwin Encarnacion here. We knew he was good. I'm talking about a guy coming from nowhere and making a big impression.

Right now Mike Gosling has the lead in that category, but I'm thinking Jimmy Journell could be the guy who really steps up. He throws as hard as anyone the Reds have got.

Does Journell still throw hard? IIRC, he's had a couple of shoulder surgeries to go with a couple more surgeries on his arm.

princeton
03-10-2006, 10:07 AM
hoping that someone improves enough to be the 12th man on a terrible pitching staff? how depressing

fast forward me five years, Sherman... uggh, same bandbox, except now no sluggers

RFS62
03-10-2006, 10:16 AM
Ahh the "who is the next Josias" informal poll :)





Ah, the Galloping Gonad. Brings back such special memories.


*sniff*

M2
03-10-2006, 10:18 AM
Does Journell still throw hard? IIRC, he's had a couple of shoulder surgeries to go with a couple more surgeries on his arm.

Good point, he might be down on velocity a bit. I've assumed he's retained most of his heat. That might not be the case.


hoping that someone improves enough to be the 12th man on a terrible pitching staff? how depressing

fast forward me five years, Sherman... uggh, same bandbox, except now no sluggers

I'm with you in that I'd much rather be wondering who the unlucky 11th man in the pitching staff is ... because he's getting sent to Louisville.

As for the current state of things, seeing what sticks on the wall is its own form of entertainment.

This summer and the next offseason will be critical for what you and your boy Sherman see when you use the Way-Forward Machine. The potential for a radical reshaping of this franchise is the thing that most holds my interest these days.

Krusty
03-10-2006, 10:26 AM
I got two sleepers.....Coffey and Gosling.

I think Coffey will be the closer this season and Gosling will give the Reds 10-12 wins.

Danny Serafini
03-10-2006, 10:36 AM
He's got virtually no chance to make the team, but it seems Andy Abad is having a decent spring so far. I think he'll last longer than expected this spring. Not the most exciting sleeper, I know.

flyer85
03-10-2006, 10:42 AM
I would think it would be Gosling. He is a lefty who gets ground balls, that is as good as you can hope for in GABP because it plays as a LH flyball hitters ballpark.

traderumor
03-10-2006, 11:17 AM
From the looks of Gosling's track record, he is the top candidate for the 2006 Manzanillo award. He wasn't even any good in college.

flyer85
03-10-2006, 11:19 AM
From the looks of Gosling's track record, he is the top candidate for the 2006 Manzanillo award. that could say that about almost every pitcher in camp, none of the ones fighting for a spot have even a decent track record.

KronoRed
03-10-2006, 01:39 PM
I can't think of any...maybe Coffey?

The rest fill me with despair

Doc. Scott
03-10-2006, 10:35 PM
Gosling has an option left, so he'll almost certainly start in AAA. But he might be one of the first called up.

puca
03-11-2006, 09:06 AM
I can't think of any...maybe Coffey?

The rest fill me with despair

I'm right there with you Krono.

ochre
03-11-2006, 10:49 AM
I'm hoping this hanging on to atrocious players while sending kids down that will/have outperform(ed) them, because they have options, is a thing that we can finally put behind us.

M2
03-11-2006, 11:37 AM
I'm hoping this hanging on to atrocious players while sending kids down that will/have outperform(ed) them, because they have options, is a thing that we can finally put behind us.

I'll second that.

Reds1
03-11-2006, 04:00 PM
Media-anointed sleeper -- Burns or Gosling

My sleeper -- DeWayne Wise

Agree, he's doing great

M2
03-11-2006, 06:19 PM
I like that Wise has some defensive skill.

Ravenlord
03-11-2006, 07:04 PM
I like that Wise has some defensive skill.
he's Reggie Taylor with defensive exceptional defensive instinct...i'll take that as my 5th OFer. problem is, i don't see Narron taking him immediately out of camp because he hits lefty and because of Tuffy Rhodes presence.

as long as Wise can avoid being played before the 7th inning, all should be fine.

Far East
03-12-2006, 12:15 PM
Couldn't find much in the spring stats about position players that jumped off the page to indicate any sleepers outperforming the group -- aside from the obvious great spring start by E.E..

But did notice that guys possibly competing for the second base job have been given a good many at bats so far.

Although Freel has also played OF and Aurilia also 3B and SS, if you include them, Womack, and the younger guys, they have a cumulative 100 AB out of the team's (discounting pitchers) 413 AB, or just over 24% of the ST at bats.

Of course it's way too early and it's only ST, but among the veterans Womack is slugging a whopping .350 (all singles in 20 AB), and among the kids Holbert is slugging .714 (1 HR and 1 single in just 7 AB).

Is the sleeper going to be whichever 2B guy wakes up?

jmcclain19
03-13-2006, 03:49 AM
I think that Rob Stratton still could emerge as a sleeper at some point in 2006, if he can get healthy. He's been well below the radar this spring, having not even been assigned to the major league camp.

Once the Reds get thru the usual AAAA chaff, the likes of Rhodes, McCracken, Holbert, etc, Stratton will be standing tall.

Kearns, Griffey and Pena are all due for 40-60 games minimum missed per year. When those overlap Denorfia can only play one spot and I think Stratton could sneak in there.

Maybe that is just a hope in my mind. But it could happen.

princeton
03-13-2006, 10:14 AM
I think that the biggest hope is that the handful of high ceiling players (EdE, Ryan Wagner, WMP and Austin Kearns, front and center) take a Felipe Lopez-sized jump

all else is of the "can Dwayne Wise or Dane Sardinha finally hit .240?" ilk. sheer boredom

M2
03-13-2006, 11:04 AM
I think that the biggest hope is that the handful of high ceiling players (EdE, Ryan Wagner, WMP and Austin Kearns, front and center) take a Felipe Lopez-sized jump

all else is of the "can Dwayne Wise or Dane Sardinha finally hit .240?" ilk. sheer boredom

I'm guessing everyone cares more about the high ceiling guys, but that's more of an April concern. Encarnacion's seemingly sewed up the 3B job, Kearns has lost weight, Pena's talked a good game about being more selective and Claussen's teased that he might be able to take a step forward. In every one of those cases we're waiting for the season to start.

In the meantime, there are some battles for the spots on the end of the bunch, the back of the bullpen and the #4 and #5 slots in the rotation. Do those spots ultimately matter as much as how Kearns performs? Absolutely not. But until Kearns starts to play in games that count, these are the open-ended issues of the moment. Spring Training is really nothing more than sun-drenched boredom to begin with. Seems to me your choices are either to hate it or take some amusement in the less-than-earth-shattering business of filling out the roster.

princeton
03-13-2006, 11:18 AM
there have been camps when I was intrigued by some young players trying to knock on the door. But it's not this one. In this one, I'm expect to be more intrigued by the cuts

M2
03-13-2006, 11:54 AM
there have been camps when I was intrigued by some young players trying to knock on the door. But it's not this one. In this one, I'm expect to be more intrigued by the cuts

Except you've surely known for months the Reds had no young players knocking on the door this ST. All the young guys they've got who could be of serious help have already garnered a good bit of big league experience. Denorfia's the closest thing to a contributing rookie the organization has to offer and the best he can hope for until a trade goes down is a 4th OF slot.

princeton
03-13-2006, 12:10 PM
it's true that if I had only expected less than zero, I would then be excited by nothing. Good motto: As a Reds fan, nothing excites me.

reminds me of a joke that I heard at a seminar last month. A biologist, a physicist and a mathemetician were watching a house. They observe two people go into the house, after which three came out.

The physicist says, "The initial measurements were incorrect." The biologist disagrees: "They must have reproduced". And the mathemetician says, "If one more person enters the house, then it will be empty"

M2
03-13-2006, 12:20 PM
it's true that if I had only expected less than zero, I would then be excited by nothing. Good motto: As a Reds fan, nothing excites me.

Speak for yourself, I'm making lemonade out of Dewayne Wise at the moment.

Encarnacion and Claussen have already had their ST splashes. That's worth some enthusiasm for when the season starts.

princeton
03-13-2006, 12:26 PM
I'm making lemonade out of Dewayne Wise at the moment.

see, it works

Reds fans: because Nothing excites us

Falls City Beer
03-13-2006, 12:31 PM
Encarnacion and Claussen have already had their ST splashes. That's worth some enthusiasm for when the season starts.

Yes, but will Kearns do his April "splat." And Harang's shoulder do the "pop." Pena do the "fizzle."

Stayed tuned. Unfortunately, the next five years of the franchise ride on the answers to those questions.

M2
03-13-2006, 12:34 PM
see, it works

Reds fans: because Nothing excites us

Ah, if you can't have fun with Dewayne Wise you can't have fun.

Don't know how many times I can mention my excitement over Encarnacion before that registers with you. He's just not a ST sleeper.

M2
03-13-2006, 12:38 PM
Yes, but will Kearns do his April "splat." And Harang's shoulder do the "pop." Pena do the "fizzle."

Stayed tuned. Unfortunately, the next five years of the franchise ride on the answers to those questions.

Well yeah, but since when is that news?

Falls City Beer
03-13-2006, 12:43 PM
Well yeah, but since when is that news?

It doesn't have to be news.

In fact, it can be moldering DanO speak.

If only the new regime had the guts to scrap the "build from the bottom" nonsense.

This team needs more than a regime change and a plan. It needs a sense of genuine urgency. It needs a front of the rotation starter. And they're out there.

Fixing the minors is a given. A new regime, frankly, shouldn't even have to mention that. They should be talking about how to make the team a winner. Right now. And executing it.

M2
03-13-2006, 12:59 PM
It doesn't have to be news.

In fact, it can be moldering DanO speak.

If only the new regime had the guts to scrap the "build from the bottom" nonsense.

This team needs more than a regime change and a plan. It needs a sense of genuine urgency. It needs a front of the rotation starter. And they're out there.

Fixing the minors is a given. A new regime, frankly, shouldn't even have to mention that. They should be talking about how to make the team a winner. Right now. And executing it.

All right, tell me how to make the Reds a winner right now ... because I don't think it can be done this year. Honestly, if the new regime (which has already moved faster to turnover the front offices than you suspected) were talking about trying to tweak the current product for a run at the playoffs I'd consider it to be more DanOesque stupidity.

Krivsky needs to attack this roster with a cleaver and bring in youth that can put the club on a 2008/9 timeframe. The time for that will come this summer when the market opens up a bit. Though I'd like to see Weathers, Mercker and Williams shopped right now. Those are the guys for whom you might be able to get a bit of market in ST. Mind you, while I'd like to see the club do that, I don't think it's a damnable if it doesn't.

Falls City Beer
03-13-2006, 01:09 PM
All right, tell me how to make the Reds a winner right now ... because I don't think it can be done this year. Honestly, if the new regime (which has already moved faster to turnover the front offices than you suspected) were talking about trying to tweak the current product for a run at the playoffs I'd consider it to be more DanOesque stupidity.

Krivsky needs to attack this roster with a cleaver and bring in youth that can put the club on a 2008/9 timeframe. The time for that will come this summer when the market opens up a bit. Though I'd like to see Weathers, Mercker and Williams shopped right now. Those are the guys for whom you might be able to get a bit of market in ST. Mind you, while I'd like to see the club do that, I don't think it's a damnable if it doesn't.

Beane turns questionable offensive talent/young pitching into a contender yearly.

Schuerholz has taken the most godawful offenses and landed them in the playoffs for the last epoch.

But each of these guys is hyperaggresive. The Twins haven't been, really, and that's the cultural hearth Krivsky's coming from.

Casting your timeline three years into the future means it's okay to fail in the present. And the future always slides away.

M2
03-13-2006, 01:32 PM
Beane turns questionable offensive talent/young pitching into a contender yearly.

Sure, but he does it by working an entire offseason and by scoring in and around the summer trade deadline. He's never once rebuilt his team during spring training.


Schuerholz has taken the most godawful offenses and landed them in the playoffs for the last epoch.

I suggest you take another look at the Braves' offense. It's finished 4th, 5th and 1st in the NL in scoring the past three seasons.


But each of these guys is hyperaggresive. The Twins haven't been, really, and that's the cultural hearth Krivsky's coming from.

I don't need to be sold on hyperaggressive, but even hyperaggressive organizations aren't making deals right now. I'm sure you could hyperaggressively offer other team deals they can't refuse, but that's not likely to help your club. As for the Twins, they got oddly passive last season. Don't know why. They'd been fairly active in previous seasons. How that reflects on Krivsky is anyone's guess.


Casting your timeline three years into the future means it's okay to fail in the present. And the future always slides away.

It's inevitable to fail in the present with this pitching staff. You want to change that, then you'd better be cognizant of the fact that a job this big will require a few years. Not only do you have to find good, young arms, but then you've to give them the time to mature. Harang took two years. Claussen, if he gets over the hump, will have taken three.

I suppose you could go the JimBo/DanO crafty veteran route and hope to get lucky, but I'm beyond sick of that crap. It's a pretty simple choice these days. The Reds can do the hard work of building a pitching staff that's consistently good (which won't pay immediate dividends) or they can keep trying to draw three cards to a straight.

I'm looking forward to seeing what Krivsky does in the summer market. If he does nothing or lands a pile of navel lint, then I'll be plenty ticked off about it. Yet this isn't the same as DanO coming to town and frittering away an entire offseason. The offseason was essentially over when Krivsky arrived. Like I said, I'm all for hypeaggressive, but anyone attempting a massive overhaul in the next three weeks would just be hyperspastic.

traderumor
03-13-2006, 01:37 PM
Beane turns questionable offensive talent/young pitching into a contender yearly.

Schuerholz has taken the most godawful offenses and landed them in the playoffs for the last epoch.

But each of these guys is hyperaggresive. The Twins haven't been, really, and that's the cultural hearth Krivsky's coming from.

Casting your timeline three years into the future means it's okay to fail in the present. And the future always slides away.If you are truly building for the future by accepting short-term failure at one level because of a situation that you can do nothing about, then I would say one is setting realistic goals. The success is then gauged by what you do in the short-term to accomplish that goal aimed at the future, instead of setting an unrealistic goal of contending in a season with a glaring organizational weakness.

We just fired the guy who did not understand or have the ability to diagnose and/or treat the patient. He simply tried to treat the patient with placebos made up of various inert ingredients while the patient was flatlining. Krivsky's pedigree is in a situation mirroring ours when Ryan took over. He at least has first-hand knowledge of a true rebuilding success story. All O'Brien had was a daddy in the business with limited success.

WebScorpion
03-13-2006, 02:20 PM
What? No magical revival of Howington, Gruler, or Basham this season? Those are the only kind of sleepers I'd expect ... fallen, but once promising guys who everyone else has given up hope for. We've had so many pitchers go down, you'd think eventually ONE would come back and have an impact. :pray:

TheBigLebowski
03-13-2006, 10:19 PM
I'll do it....I'll say it....

Tony Womack.

michst
03-14-2006, 12:49 PM
What? No magical revival of Howington, Gruler, or Basham this season? Those are the only kind of sleepers I'd expect ... fallen, but once promising guys who everyone else has given up hope for. We've had so many pitchers go down, you'd think eventually ONE would come back and have an impact. :pray:


Is there any chance at all any of those guys ever will be serviceable? I know they all had surgeries etc, but people have come back from Labrum tears etc. What stage are they at and any good news at all on them?

Chip R
03-14-2006, 02:36 PM
all else is of the "can Dwayne Wise or Dane Sardinha finally hit .240?" ilk. sheer boredom

When did you and DeWayne Wise break up? IIRC, you were all over the Reds for not protecting him in the Rule V draft back in the 20th century. I'd have thought you'd be all over having him back with the Reds.

princeton
03-14-2006, 03:03 PM
When did you and DeWayne Wise break up? IIRC, you were all over the Reds for not protecting him in the Rule V draft back in the 20th century. I'd have thought you'd be all over having him back with the Reds.

yup, and then Toronto ruined him

challenge thy hitters, don't sit 'em on a bench for the most important developmental year of their lives. Especially don't do it to a guy that barely projects with the bat anyway

Sicciardi

pedro
03-14-2006, 03:24 PM
http://www.scifimoviepage.com/dvd/sleeper-dvd.jpg

RFS62
03-14-2006, 08:49 PM
http://www.scifimoviepage.com/dvd/sleeper-dvd.jpg



Reds need to install an orgasmatron in the clubhouse.

And Wily Mo needs to stop bogartin' the orb.

Just sayin'

Danny Serafini
04-01-2006, 05:28 PM
He's got virtually no chance to make the team, but it seems Andy Abad is having a decent spring so far. I think he'll last longer than expected this spring. Not the most exciting sleeper, I know.

I know it's cheesy to quote yourself, but I just couldn't resist.