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djsauter
03-12-2006, 02:13 PM
I know it is Spring Training, but looking at these numbers, it's kind of alarming.

I know you can't expect a .400 hitter in ST, to stay the way..but can you really expect a .040 hitter to suddenly go to .260 in the regular season?

Freel 0.42
vs.
Womack .350

Dunn .158
vs.
Wise .500

Larue .158
vs.
Sardihna .286

Kearns .190
vs.
McCracken .455

..interesting.

membengal
03-12-2006, 02:15 PM
Yes you can expect just that. If you take anything away from spring training games in terms of average etc. and project that as a prelude for what to expect in the regular season, you are making a mistake.

At most, at MOST, you can look at how certain guys are driving the ball etc., but the sample size is so small and the competition they are facing so uneven, that you don't waste a minute worrying about the spring vets who have proven themselves are having.

Matt700wlw
03-12-2006, 02:19 PM
Remember how bad the Bengals looked in preseason games?

Once the opener came, they turned it on.....maybe the case will be the same for our redlegs.

Falls City Beer
03-12-2006, 02:28 PM
I'm worried about whether the Reds will get 180 innings out of any single starter on the roster.

TeamBoone
03-12-2006, 02:28 PM
In addition, a lot of players use ST to tweak their batting stance, plate approach, swing, batter's eye, etc. Most times, experimenting on such things will affect the numbers... and not for the good.

I don't worry about it for that reason.

oneupper
03-12-2006, 05:52 PM
I am a bit worried about Freel. He didn't exactly finish on a strong note in 2005. (.224 after July).
I'd really like him to start hitting.

jmcclain19
03-12-2006, 07:50 PM
If anyone thinks that any of the bottom four in that comparison come close to matching up with the skills and talent level of the top four, I have some news for you.

wheels
03-12-2006, 07:55 PM
I'm worried about whether the Reds will get 180 innings out of any single starter on the roster.

Aaron Harang gave 'em 211 last year.

He might top that this year.

KronoRed
03-12-2006, 08:51 PM
If he's healthy

Falls City Beer
03-12-2006, 08:53 PM
Aaron Harang gave 'em 211 last year.

He might top that this year.

What Krono said. I'm not banking on a healthy start to the season for Harang.

jmcclain19
03-12-2006, 09:10 PM
I'm worried about whether the Reds will get 180 innings out of any single starter on the roster.

Unfortunately Milton is good for about 170-200IP every year.

Which doesn't bode well for the Reds chances for improving

wheels
03-13-2006, 12:54 PM
What Krono said. I'm not banking on a healthy start to the season for Harang.

That's not a real injury.

He's dealt with it before, and I'm not of the belief that it's a big deal.

Besides.......You're just being crotchety again.:p:

Rotater Cuff
03-13-2006, 02:50 PM
talk about spring training numbers, did anyone see Griffey's, uh, new poundage at the WBC? He looks like he's gained 20lbs.

KySteveH
03-14-2006, 12:47 PM
talk about spring training numbers, did anyone see Griffey's, uh, new poundage at the WBC? He looks like he's gained 20lbs.
No kidding...with him wearing 3, and the extra 20-25 pounds, I actually had to ask when I saw some highlights who it was using the Griffey stance.

bucksfan
03-14-2006, 01:57 PM
Turning any of those numbers into a .260 BA or whatever your batting KPI of choice is can happen in the blink of an eye given the # of AB's the players have had and the purpose of spring training.

Now if I am actually watching the players bat (which I am not at the moment) and they are exhibitting some very major flaws in their approach or mechanics , lingering effects of injuries, etc, then I might have cause to be a little concerned. But even then, it is very very early. As other have said, I am more worried about the pitching, and I still would be even if our pitchers were WHIPPING below 1 with a sub-2 ERA at this point.

RedsManRick
03-14-2006, 02:16 PM
Exactly --- you can be hitting 3/20 (.150) and then go 2/4, 1/3, 2/4 and suddenly you're hitting .267.

In fact, in ST you should pretty much throw stats completely out the window and rely solely on scouting. As far as the "can you really expect a .040 hitter to suddenly go to .260 in the regular season?" question, the answer is absoutlely yes. While I don't have the time to actually run the numbers, that if you look at a .260 hitters season, you will find at least 1, and probably multiple streaks where they hit under .100. You'll also find streaks where they hit .500.

ST should be about mechanics and being in shape. If a guy has 1,000 major league (or even minor league) at bats, trust that. Looking at DeWayne Wise's history for example tells me that even if he's having a breakout year, he probably wouldn't be as good over 400 major league at bats as Chris Denorfia. Now perhaps a scout would point something out that counters this, but the minor league stats tell me nothing.