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View Full Version : Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?



Far East
03-15-2006, 10:50 AM
If, and it's a big if, some trading partner was willing to give up one of its starting pitchers -- and of course which starter would be a huge factor -- and if their need was one of the Reds' regulars, the loss of which one of the starting 8 Reds would have the least negative impact upon the team's performance?

For the sake of simplicity, consider just last season's OBP + SLG:

Ken Griffey Jr. -- 0.946
Adam Dunn -- 0.927
Javier Valentín -- 0.883
Felipe López -- 0.838
Jason LaRue -- 0.806
Wily Mo Peña -- 0.796
Chris Denorfia -- 0.785
Austin Kearns -- 0.785
Rich Aurilia -- 0.782
Edwin Encarnación -- 0.744
Ryan Freel -- 0.743
Jacob Cruz -- 0.734
Tony Womack -- 0.556

At first glance, looking at the list from the top down, it looks like Valentin was more productive on offense than was LaRue, but then one must recognize Jason's superiority over Javier on defense.

Next we see Denorfia (with 10 times fewer AB than Kearns) tied with Austin in OPS. Could Chris and/or Cruz, McCracken, Rhodes, Wise supplant "Ears" if the Reds got the right pitcher in return?

Farther down the list is Aurilia's OPS topping that of both Freel and Womack, theoretically making those latter two possible trade bait.

Little of the foregoing considers defense, speed, age, or whether or not last season was typical of future performance, but who can replace whom should be considered when it comes time to trade a position guy for pitching.

Isn't there a quantative measure of player replacement value that has been discussed on this board in the past? Could that be useful in trade planning?

RedsFan75
03-15-2006, 11:04 AM
There is a VORP but I don't recall how to calculate, but just based on the numbers you've thrown out, I would dangle Wily Mo for a pitcher, knowing that Kearns and Denorfia would be very capable of keeping the Outfield under control.

princeton
03-15-2006, 11:05 AM
peddle everyone

RedsManRick
03-15-2006, 11:29 AM
At this point, I'm definitely willing to cut bait with either Kearns, Pena or both. While both have the potential to be very good players, I don't think either is crucial to our success.

If by some chance we were able to land a Scott Olsen, Scott Baker, Matt Cain, type pitcher, I think we'd be stupid not to do it. Denforia should be capable offensively and is proving to be a plus defender, we have plenty of depth to cover backups and our best position prospect, Jay Bruce, while still 3 years away, is also an OF.

registerthis
03-15-2006, 11:35 AM
Anyone who thinks Valentin is a superior offensive player to LaRue is being blinded by the brief flash of okay-ness that Valentin exhibited last year. LaRue has been one of the most consistent offensive catchers during the last 5 years, Valentin was chump change until the second half of 2005. There's no question who I would select if the battle was between those two for an everyday starting role.

I think offers should be entertained for everyone but Dunn and EdE--and, yes, I'm including FeLo. I think even Dunn or EdE could be moved if the right product was offered in return, but I doubt any team would be willing to part with what I would consider to be "fair value" for either of those two.

puca
03-15-2006, 11:51 AM
Problem is the Reds need to at least trade for the pitching equivalent of Pena and Kearns - young pitchers with plenty of upside or unfullfilled promise. And I just don't see teams willing to make that kind of swap. To trade any of the young players for stop-gap starting pitching just doesn't make any sense to me.

flyer85
03-15-2006, 12:05 PM
Anyone who thinks Valentin is a superior offensive player to LaRue is being blinded by the brief flash of okay-ness that Valentin exhibited last year. See The Hardball Times analysis of the Reds catching tandem posted yesterday.

TeamBoone
03-15-2006, 12:25 PM
If, and it's a big if, some trading partner was willing to give up one of its starting pitchers -- and of course which starter would be a huge factor -- and if their need was one of the Reds' regulars, the loss of which one of the starting 8 Reds would have the least negative impact upon the team's performance?

I think the Reds would have to be very careful in making such a decision for a top notch pitcher.... because they need more than that one person to become a winner.

registerthis
03-15-2006, 12:41 PM
See The Hardball Times analysis of the Reds catching tandem posted yesterday.

Yeah, I have no problems with the reds giving Valentin playing time. My key word, however was "consistent." What makes one think that Valentin is due to repeat the successes he had during the second half of 2005? I'd be thrilled if he did, but in his previous 4 seasons featuring part-time action he posted OBP of .247, .313, .254 and .293. He nearly doubled his career HR total, and slugged 140 points higher than his previous season high.

Jason has been a model of offensive consistency during the past 5 years, so in spite of Valentin posting marginally better numbers last season, I see no reason to proclaim Valentin a superior offensive player to LaRue. Another year of numbers akin to what Valentin did last year, and I would be willing to reconsider.

flyer85
03-15-2006, 12:46 PM
A lot of catchers mature late offensively and Valentin has hit well(and with power) in the minors at times. I guess this season will determine if he has risen to a new level of performance.

KronoRed
03-15-2006, 12:58 PM
peddle everyone
Only way to fix this thing for good.

OldXOhio
03-15-2006, 01:10 PM
I wouldn't wait til May 1st to deal WMP if he gets off to a good start.

flyer85
03-15-2006, 01:11 PM
I wouldn't wait til May 1st to deal WMP if he gets off to a good start.the problem as always is that it takes two to tango.

OldXOhio
03-15-2006, 01:25 PM
the problem as always is that it takes two to tango.

Understood, but my guess is one of WMP's patented hot streaks could draw some interest. The difference this time might have more to do not w/ a dance partner, but rather the individual now in charge in Cincinnati.

TC81190
03-16-2006, 09:03 AM
Denorfia has made Austin's days in the Nati numbered, IMO. And IMO, thats a good thing.

registerthis
03-16-2006, 09:20 AM
Denorfia has made Austin's days in the Nati numbered, IMO. And IMO, thats a good thing.

Actually, I think Austin has more to do with that than Denorfia does.

StillFunkyB
03-16-2006, 03:19 PM
Only way to fix this thing for good.

I still think that is what needs to be done, but now that the Reds have an owner that says he is willing to spend some cash I would like to see what this team can do if we can go out and add some pitching.

TeamBoone
03-16-2006, 04:15 PM
peddle everyone

I don't agree. The Reds do have a few keepers.

princeton
03-16-2006, 04:58 PM
I don't agree. The Reds do have a few keepers.

yep, everything is just peachy. We should only deal off guys that we don't want and have little value, yet get a lot in return for them

15fan
03-16-2006, 05:04 PM
peddle everyone

I'd trade my mother, wife & daughter if it netted some top notch arms.

Edit: Forgot to add this: ;)

pedro
03-16-2006, 05:04 PM
You have to be willing to listen to all offers.

TeamBoone
03-16-2006, 06:27 PM
yep, everything is just peachy. We should only deal off guys that we don't want and have little value, yet get a lot in return for them

Wow! Is that what I said?

KronoRed
03-16-2006, 06:32 PM
I'd trade my mother, wife & daughter if it netted some top notch arms.

Are they lefties?:D

TC81190
03-17-2006, 08:17 AM
Kearns for Matt Cain? :D

15fan
03-17-2006, 08:18 AM
Are they lefties?:D

Mom & my missus are both righties.

The 2.5 year old, though, definitely favors her left. She lives life like her hair & pants are on fire, won't stay still, and does a lot of yelling / screaming. Not afraid to get in someone else's grill & mix it up, either.

Perfect makeup for a closer.

RFS62
03-17-2006, 08:58 AM
The 2.5 year old, though, definitely favors her left. She lives life like her hair & pants are on fire, won't stay still, and does a lot of yelling / screaming. Not afraid to get in someone else's grill & mix it up, either.

Perfect makeup for a closer.


You need to go ahead and duct tape that right arm to her side. No sense taking any chances.