PDA

View Full Version : Willy Mo rumored to Boston



Willy
03-19-2006, 05:02 PM
The Red Sox are pursuing Reds outfielder Wily Mo Pena, executives with two rival clubs told FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.
The Reds had one of their top scouts watching Bronson Arroyo have his best outing of the spring today. Boston would surely prefer to give up Matt Clement, even if it meant eating a portion of his salary. If the Red Sox acquired Pena, they could put Trot Nixon, a free agent after the season, on the block. Having Pena platoon for a year and then take over as a regular in 2007 would be another possibility. Mar. 19 - 4:34 pm et



Per Rotoworld

wheels
03-19-2006, 05:04 PM
Make this deal.

Make it now.

Heath
03-19-2006, 05:06 PM
I'm all over that. Send Willy Mo to the AL where he doesn't hurt us.

Any pitcher has to better than Dave Williams.

OnBaseMachine
03-19-2006, 05:07 PM
Arroyo for Pena? Heck no.

Pena for Clement? Probably, especially if they take Milton.

Pena for Papelbon? Oh yeah.

TC81190
03-19-2006, 05:08 PM
Make this deal.

Make it now.

Why? So everyone will look at this in a few years and know we get fleeced?

flyer85
03-19-2006, 05:10 PM
I would surely want more than Arroyo. This deal won't make the Reds a winner and Arroyo is nothing more than average at best, he is highly dependent on his defense and had a 4.5 ERA last year with a .280(BABIP).

They had better get another player(DelCarmen).

Another thing is that Hatteberg instantly becomes one of the worst(if not the worst) offensive 1B in baseball. The Reds would be better off turning an OF position over to Denorfia that giving 1b to Hatteberg.

wheels
03-19-2006, 05:19 PM
Talking about Pena for Clement.

Do it now.

Caveat Emperor
03-19-2006, 05:24 PM
Why? So everyone will look at this in a few years and know we get fleeced?

Unless the pitching gets better in a hurry, they'll be needing the fleece down in hell for the Reds to succeed.

Harang
Claussen
Milton
Williams
Wilson/Gosling/Germano

Those names frighten the bejesus out of me even more than the thought of Wily Mo Pena being a great player somewhere else.

TC81190
03-19-2006, 05:32 PM
Unless the pitching gets better in a hurry, they'll be needing the fleece down in hell for the Reds to succeed.

Harang
Claussen
Milton
Williams
Wilson/Gosling/Germano

Those names frighten the bejesus out of me even more than the thought of Wily Mo Pena being a great player somewhere else.

Yeah, but what are the odds of Clement or Arroyo succeeding for us? I'd MUCH rather have someone from another OF-starved club that's willing to give more than a very average, not very young pitcher.

I'd go hit up Washington, you know Mr. Bowden would just die to get Wily Mo back, and I think he'd pay a John Patterson to get it.

Jr's Boy
03-19-2006, 05:39 PM
Arroyo for Pena? Heck no.

Pena for Clement? Probably, especially if they take Milton.

Pena for Papelbon? Oh yeah.
Now your talkin.:thumbup:

OnBaseMachine
03-19-2006, 05:41 PM
Red Sox sign Gonzalez, may deal for Pena
Ken Rosenthal / FOXSports.com
Posted: 42 minutes ago

Free agent Juan Gonzalez has agreed to a minor-league contract with the Red Sox, but the Sox's quest to add power might not end there.

The team also is talking to the Reds about a trade for outfielder Wily Mo Pena, FOXSports.com has learned.

The Reds, in desperate need of starting pitching, could be targeting Red Sox right-hander Bronson Arroyo. One of their top scouts, Gene Bennett, watched Arroyo pitch against the Orioles on Sunday.

The Orioles, in need of a left fielder, are also among the teams pursuing Pena. The Cubs, too, are believed to have shown interest, but it is doubtful the Reds would trade Pena within their division. The Royals and Twins are among the other teams with possible interest.

Pena, 24, does not fit the Red Sox's typical offensive mold; his career on-base percentage is .303, and he has struck out 288 times and drawn only 54 walks in 898 lifetime plate appearances.

However, he has prodigious power, averaging one home run every 16.2 at-bats. He could serve as a backup for center fielder Coco Crisp a position the Sox want to address but is more suited for the corners.

Arroyo, 29, is the type of affordable pitcher that the Reds want to acquire he is signed for $3.5 million this season, $3.8 million in 2007 and $3.95 million in '08. Pena will earn $1.25 million this season.

The Red Sox, however, also are shopping right-hander Matt Clement and left-hander David Wells; they offered Clement to the Phillies and several other clubs last week, and reportedly are discussing him in a possible deal for Pirates first baseman/outfielder Craig Wilson.

If Gonzalez makes the team, it is unclear what his role might be. David Ortiz is the Sox's full-time designated hitter and Trot Nixon their right fielder. It is possible the Sox will trade Nixon if they acquired Pena.

Gonzalez, 35, had only one at-bat last season with the Indians due to a strained right hamstring, and appeared in only 33 games with the Royals because of injuries in 2004.

Gonzalez, who has hit 434 career homers, did not make Puerto Rico's 30-man roster for the World Baseball Classic, but he has been working out with the intention of resuming his major-league career.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5427236

Heath
03-19-2006, 05:41 PM
If we pick up Arroyo, we must be on a mission to stockpile former Pirate pitchers.

wheels
03-19-2006, 05:42 PM
Yeah, but what are the odds of Clement or Arroyo succeeding for us? I'd MUCH rather have someone from another OF-starved club that's willing to give more than a very average, not very young pitcher.

I'd go hit up Washington, you know Mr. Bowden would just die to get Wily Mo back, and I think he'd pay a John Patterson to get it.

If you think you'd get a horse like Patterson for Wily Mo, even when we're talking about Jim Bowden, think again.

By my estimation, Clement (if they picked up a little salary as the blurb suggests) in exchange for Wily Mo might be the best deal they can get at this point.

Clement got injured/roughed up last year, be he's got more of a history of success than any pitcher the Reds have, and that history of success is fairly recent.

Clement could bounce back, and if the Sox were willing to pay some salary it's a risk well worth taking.

Heath
03-19-2006, 05:43 PM
Did Ken Rosenthal write this?

That's what I thought I smelled.

TC81190
03-19-2006, 05:47 PM
Did I mention that I'd MUCH rather trade Kearns anyway? But if we're dealing Wily Mo, we need young, and we need good.

I say we revisit Cleveland. Go for Sabathia. Or the Giants. Cain or Lowry. Or Davies from Atlanta. McCarthy from the other Sox. I mean when you sit down and list all of the candidates, there are so many better trading partners than Boston.

jmcclain19
03-19-2006, 05:49 PM
Matt Clement's 3 year average (2003-2005)

191.1IP, 172H, 88ER, 75BB, 169K, 21HR, 1.29WHIP, 4.13ERA

Bronson Arroyo's 2 year average (2004-2005)

192.0IP, 192H, 92ER, 51BB, 121K, 20HR, 1.27WHIP, 4.31ERA

Aaron Harang's 2005

211.2IP, 217H, 90ER, 51BB, 163K, 22HR, 1.27WHIP, 3.83ERA

Sure Clement's HR numbers may slightly increase, but essentially you're giving up Wily Mo, an unknown quantity, for another Aaron Harang of 2005 in the rotation.

Similiar with Arroyo, although he has less of a track record than Clement.

Do it - do it now.

realreds1
03-19-2006, 05:59 PM
I like the trade at face value. If you get Clement in a bounce-back year, you have a solid pitcher -- moreso than Dave Williams, Paul Wilson, or Eric Milton. In Wily Mo, though there's a lot of raw talent there, I don't know what his ceiling is.

BTW, did anyone see Wily Mo play -- as in defensively -- right field in Boston last year? It was not pretty.

Chip R
03-19-2006, 06:10 PM
BTW, did anyone see Wily Mo play -- as in defensively -- right field in Boston last year? It was not pretty.
Coco would weigh about 120 lbs. by the time the season is over having to cover for Manny in LF and Wily Mo in RF.

RedEye
03-19-2006, 06:32 PM
No! I really don't want this to happen. Arroyo is mediocre and Clement is, well, not half of what we'll get for Wily Mo if he plays a whole season and knocks the crap out of the ball. Do the Reds need pitching? Heck yes. Do they need to give up their player with the most upside to get it? I don't think so... or at least they should wait until he shows his true value.

The only way I like this trade is if they package Wily Mo and Milton for Clement and a minor league P with potential. Then I say DO IT NOW!

VI_RedsFan
03-19-2006, 06:48 PM
I'm a little shakey about this one. But here's two different trades that I'd like:

Pena and Milton for Clement and Delcarmen

or

Pena for Arroyo and Delcarmen

If this trade is just Wily for Clement or Arroyo, then I'm not sure if I like it.

guttle11
03-19-2006, 07:00 PM
Arroyo for Pena? Heck no.

Pena for Clement? Probably, especially if they take Milton.

Pena for Papelbon? Oh yeah.

Yeah Papelbon would be great, but it ain't happening.

No Arroyo.

Pena for Clement with Boston eating a portion of his salary? Yes. Clement is an innings eater that with our offense, you can almost pencil in for 13-15 wins. He's a solid #2. You make this deal.

As a potential bonus, let's say that Clement has a great first half and the team does not. Well, then you would be able to move him to a contender for very good returns. A good pitcher will always yield more at the deadline than a position player.

If it's available, do it.

Willy
03-19-2006, 07:01 PM
Neither one of these guys are going to put us into the playoffs. I would wait to see if Pena or Kearns have a great April/May, then I would go looking for a younger/higher upside type of pitcher.

guttle11
03-19-2006, 07:03 PM
Neither one of these guys are going to put us into the playoffs. I would wait to see if Pena or Kearns have a great April/May, then I would go looking for a younger/higher upside type of pitcher.

Yes, keep waiting for "potential." Look where that has us.

Clement wouldn't be the savior by any means, but odds are Wily Mo will never be worth more. Do it. Yesterday.

KronoRed
03-19-2006, 07:07 PM
If we pick up Arroyo, we must be on a mission to stockpile former Pirate pitchers.
Worked for them....wait it didn't! ;)

Clement sure..Arroyo, no thanks

steig
03-19-2006, 07:12 PM
Are we trying to be a .500 team this year by making this trade? I thought the Reds wanted to develop a team to to compete for a division title and the world series. I don't believe that trading Wily Mo for Clement or Bronson will help us out in 2 or 3 years. If we trade an outfielder it should be for a young pitcher and if we trade Dunn it should be for a young pitcher ready to play in the big right now. I'm will to suffer through another long year rather than trade away good hitting prospects for a few wins in 2006. 3 years down the road will anybody care if we came in 3 or 4th. But if we can develop a championship team then we will remember.

realreds1
03-19-2006, 07:16 PM
Well, in fairness, this is only a rumor - and, likely, only PART of a rumored trade. I'd be curious to see what Krivsky can do here. My vote is he either stands pat or strikes a multi-player deal. With all of the good discussion here, I'm now leaning against the Wily Mo-for-Clement straight-up trade.

Without getting dramatic, I do think this scenario could give us a better idea of what the Krivsky tenure will be like. Until now, we haven't seen any fireworks from him -- mostly throw-away moves signing fringe utility guys and cutting unproven pitchers.

captainmorgan07
03-19-2006, 07:18 PM
do it in a heartbeat if i was krivsky we need pitching i'd ask for clement before i asked for arroyo atleast he's pitched in the national league before but if u get arroyo not alot of nl hitters have seen his stuff

guttle11
03-19-2006, 07:20 PM
Are we trying to be a .500 team this year by making this trade? I thought the Reds wanted to develop a team to to compete for a division title and the world series. I don't believe that trading Wily Mo for Clement or Bronson will help us out in 2 or 3 years. If we trade an outfielder it should be for a young pitcher and if we trade Dunn it should be for a young pitcher ready to play in the big right now. I'm will to suffer through another long year rather than trade away good hitting prospects for a few wins in 2006. 3 years down the road will anybody care if we came in 3 or 4th. But if we can develop a championship team then we will remember.

But isn't about time to stop labeling Wily Mo as a prospect? He's been up here for what 4 years? His devolopment was serverely hampered thanks to the ML deal he signed with the Yankees.

Who cares what they are doing this year? Let them try to win. Clement wouldn't be a long term commitment unless everything works out well. Why not try?

If trading away Wily Mo means the Reds suffer down the road then Krivsky will end up being a terrible GM.

Again, make the dang trade if it's out there.

Gainesville Red
03-19-2006, 07:22 PM
Here's what makes me nervous about a Wily Mo for Clement or Arroyo deal: At Sons of Sam Horn they're all for it. Some of their posters don't even think Wily Mo or Austin Kearns will turn out any good, and they're still all for it.

UPRedsFan
03-19-2006, 07:23 PM
Clement's 32 already and is a free agent again next year right? Arroyo is 29 and signed through '08 for less than 4 million. That's why we make the deal now for Arroyo. Get him back in the national league without the DH and he's a solid #3 for us. If we want Clement it should only be for a mid season trade. Not sure that's the best plan. May not pan out for 07 or 08.

deltachi8
03-19-2006, 07:24 PM
Id rather trade Kearns and have little interest in Arroyo. Clement I like a bunch though....

red-in-la
03-19-2006, 07:28 PM
You keep the team you have right now and take your lumps.

Next year in FA, you get Castellini to pay for a big name pitcher to go with Bailey, Harang and Claussen. Keep the offense in tact, other than getting rid if the Womacks and Aurillias and maybe sign a good defensive 2B as a FA.

In 2007 you have every position down pat and maybe a decent rotation. Also, by then, maybe Coffey, Wagner and Belisle will have developed into a formidable back end of the BP where you can fill the middle innings with a few veterans.

I totally agree that trading away a big chunk of the OF and offense right now to get a one or two year rental of a middlie of the rotation pitcher is just foolish.

traderumor
03-19-2006, 07:29 PM
You keep the team you have right now and take your lumps.

Next year in FA, you get Castellini to pay for a big name pitcher to go with Bailey, Harang and Claussen. Keep the offense in tact, other than getting rid if the Womacks and Aurillias and maybe sign a good defensive 2B as a FA.

In 2007 you have every position down pat and maybe a decent rotation. Also, by then, maybe Coffey, Wagner and Belisle will have developed into a formidable back end of the BP where you can fill the middle innings with a few veterans.

I totally agree that trading away a big chunk of the OF and offense right now to get a one or two year rental of a middlie of the rotation pitcher is just foolish.We need a CFer

RedLegSuperStar
03-19-2006, 07:32 PM
Arroyo for Pena? Heck no.

Pena for Clement? Probably, especially if they take Milton.

Pena for Papelbon? Oh yeah.

I agree. Don't trade Pena yet.. He is going to stick to his word and show he's the total package, minus the fielding. Playing 81 games in GAPB won't hurt either. I believe offensivly he will be the leader among this ball club in average, RBI's, runs, and possible HR's. His age, with his talent can get us more then Arroyo. Call Florida, I hear they are offering Willis... that would be who we target. Yes, I know we'd have to offer more.. but I think we need someone to build around not fill a roster spot

OnBaseMachine
03-19-2006, 07:32 PM
We need a CFer

I want Chris Young from the D-Backs. Looks like another Mike Camerson, perhaps with more power and walks.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/Y/chris-young-1.shtml

Johnny Footstool
03-19-2006, 07:34 PM
I don't believe that trading Wily Mo for Clement or Bronson will help us out in 2 or 3 years.

In 2 or 3 years, Dunn, Kearns, LaRue, Lopez, and possibly Griffey will probably be gone.

How will hanging on to Pena help the team in the interim? On in the long run, for that matter?

Krusty
03-19-2006, 07:43 PM
Package Pena and Mercker for Clement and Declarmen.

Red Sox also need a lefthander for the bullpen and the Reds have three. The difference in Clement and Mercker's salaries can be made up by the savings on the Casey deal.

Clement gives the Reds a solid starter, which they desperately need. It also buys them time (two years) till Homer Bailey and others are ready for the starting rotation.

The jury is still out on Willy Mo. But does the offense really suffer when you have Dunn and Freel to play LF, and either Dunn or Hatteberg at lst base?

The only two decent starters we have now is Harang and Claussen. Everyone else is a question mark. If this team doesn't address the starting rotation, it wouldn't surprise me to see them lose 100 games.

RedLegSuperStar
03-19-2006, 07:47 PM
I want Chris Young from the D-Backs. Looks like another Mike Camerson, perhaps with more power and walks.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/Y/chris-young-1.shtml

Chris Young and Halsey To The Reds for Mo Pena and Belisle To The D-Backs

captainmorgan07
03-19-2006, 08:06 PM
the more i read the replies i think we should do the deal for arroyo he's still young and signed threw 08 is a bonus for us he's 10 times better then wilson and williams he's pitched in the playoffs big key there for me that experince is vital if he gets in a jam sometime wily mo may not turn out to be anything but im not one to sit around and wait we need pitching we need to go out and get it with the springs some of the other outfielders are having like wise denorfia and even mcCracken we've got some ppl who can replace him i say go ahead make the deal you gotta take a chance sometime we all complained because dan'o never did you gotta gamble sometime to see how it goes

Krusty
03-19-2006, 08:11 PM
If the Reds don't make a deal, how much playing time will Freel get with Womack and Aurilia (along with Kata) playing second base? In the outfield, you figure Pena, Griffey and Kearns will be out there everyday.

Now if you trade Pena, you open up a spot in LF for Freel and to get him in the lineup everyday. You live with a Womack/Aurilia combo at second base. When Junior needs a day off, Freel goes to CF, Dunn to LF and Hatteberg to first.

Pena might be the next Sammy Sosa. He also might turn out to be the next Russell Branyan. If you can get a veteran starter for Willy Mo Pena, make the deal. We have more options for the outfield than we do for the starting rotation.

traderumor
03-19-2006, 08:27 PM
Chris Young and Halsey To The Reds for Mo Pena and Belisle To The D-BacksIsn't that the Chris Young involved in the Griffey rumor with the Sox last year?

OnBaseMachine
03-19-2006, 08:34 PM
Isn't that the Chris Young involved in the Griffey rumor with the Sox last year?

Yes. He was dealt to Arizona in the Javier Vazquez deal back in December.

traderumor
03-19-2006, 08:39 PM
Yes. He was dealt to Arizona in the Javier Vazquez deal back in December.
Thought so. Thanks again Carl.

Strikes Out Looking
03-19-2006, 08:46 PM
I've read the thread. Here are some points:

1. Yes, Arroyo is signed to a three year deal, but isn't true that players traded during a multi-year deal can ask to be traded, and if not traded, can then be granted free-agency. So Arroyo isn't a sure thing for 3 years.

2. Willie Mo is a talent, but, he hasn't shown that he can play 120-130 games at the very least without injury. While he may develop into someone who can stay healthy and hit 30 homers consistently, he also may not. Outfielders aren't that hard to develop (or trade for), as we Reds fans know, starting pitchers are.

3. A healthy Clement would be the Reds number one.

4. Many of the trades discussed in the thread are pure pipe dreams, no offense. Jim Bowden isn't giving up Patterson for any of the Reds at this point in the season. His starting pitching staff may even be shallower than the Reds at this point due to Lawrence's injury. And his bullpen isn't so hot either. The Reds can shop excess bullpen to Washington for some of their minor leaguers, but they aren't getting any starting pitchers from the Nats.

5. Trading Willie Mo may not make Hatteberg the full time 1b. I could see Dunn playing there quite a bit, with Freel in the OF. Or Aurilia at 1b, because his bat is pretty good (its his up the middle defense that is the problem).

My conclusion is that if the deal for Clement can be made, go for it. I'm 50-50 on Bronson, but beggers can't be chooser, so if I was the GM I'd probably roll the dice, pull the trigger and welcome him to the Rotation.

chicoruiz
03-19-2006, 08:52 PM
I agree with Steig...I'd rather take a chance on Wily Mo's future than deal him for someone to help us win 72 games this year rather than 65.

On a slightly related note, why do I get the feeling that everyone's upset at WMP because he hasn't been playing much in th WBC? Is that really his fault?

And speaking of the WBC, I bet there were non-ML-affiliated pitchers in that tournament who could do as well for us as Bronson Arroyo could. Why not exercise a little out-of-the-box thinking and take a chance on one of them? Does anyone know if we even scouted the WBC?

Cedric
03-19-2006, 09:45 PM
I agree with Steig...I'd rather take a chance on Wily Mo's future than deal him for someone to help us win 72 games this year rather than 65.

On a slightly related note, why do I get the feeling that everyone's upset at WMP because he hasn't been playing much in th WBC? Is that really his fault?

And speaking of the WBC, I bet there were non-ML-affiliated pitchers in that tournament who could do as well for us as Bronson Arroyo could. Why not exercise a little out-of-the-box thinking and take a chance on one of them? Does anyone know if we even scouted the WBC?

You get the same feeling I get. I think Jerry Narron has certain favorites and he is nitpicking. I don't wish for anyone to lose their job, but I pray that Jerry Narron doesn't wreck what little this team has left.

George Foster
03-19-2006, 10:53 PM
With the way the pitching is going this spring, you got to make the deal if you are the new management. "the first perception" is everything to this management. If we start out 6-15 there will be a lot of empty seats this summer. Most families who live out of town, buy their tickets 4-6 weeks in advance. If the Reds have a terrible April, this is really bad for summer ticket sales. Having a pitcher that can stop a losing streak like a Clement is important to the "first perception."

harangatang
03-19-2006, 11:13 PM
Now if you trade Pena, you open up a spot in LF for Freel and to get him in the lineup everyday. You live with a Womack/Aurilia combo at second base. When Junior needs a day off, Freel goes to CF, Dunn to LF and Hatteberg to first.

Nothing personal Krusty but do you realize the Reds have Chris Denorfia that can also play outfield. In almost all these scenarios that not only you but alot posters leave out that the fact that Denorfia can man the OF if someone gets traded. I would like to see Freel in the lineup everyday but the Reds have made it pretty clear about what role they want Freel to play on this team, a utility man. That means not starting in LF and occasionally going to CF or as some others suggest starting everyday at 2nd base, yadda yadda yadda. I don't know if all of this is like a fairytale in your head but I think we need to make a little push towards reality here.

Caveat Emperor
03-19-2006, 11:50 PM
I agree with Steig...I'd rather take a chance on Wily Mo's future than deal him for someone to help us win 72 games this year rather than 65.

Wily Mo's future, like the futures of Adam Dunn, Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns, et. al., is totally meaningless to this franchise unless the pitching gets better. Period.

He could transform into Albert Pujols tomorrow and this team would still lose close to 100 ballgames.

alex trevino
03-20-2006, 12:06 AM
I doubt Clement or Arroyo will make us a much better team...On the other hand Willie Mo could end up being Glenn Braggs....I suspect he will have a career year at some point but it may be one or two teams down the road...Bottom line is in the long run whether this trade happens or not it is not going to really matter.

reds44
03-20-2006, 12:18 AM
This board expects us to rob someone in any deal we make.

I would do WMP for Arroyo.

tts1stros
03-20-2006, 12:43 AM
Willie Mo is a talent, but, he hasn't shown that he can play 120-130 games at the very least without injury. While he may develop into someone who can stay healthy and hit 30 homers consistently, he also may not. Outfielders aren't that hard to develop (or trade for), as we Reds fans know, starting pitchers are.
Be sure you know what you're giving up. Outfielders are harder to develop then you're giving them credit for. Atlanta Braves fans probably think starting pitchers grow on trees. Pena's a good prospect for anyone.

But I think the Reds should make this trade. Getting

* a league-average pitcher who has the potential to be above average

helps your team more than

* an outfielder who has above average potential as well as an injury history.

This improves the Reds at an affordable cost; not only monetarily, but from a baseball perspective. Offense for pitching is a trade you can definitely afford to make.

This might be a win-win for both teams - you're both dealing from a position of strength and addressing a weakness. I'd do it.

RedEye
03-20-2006, 01:18 AM
Let's face it, the Reds aren't going anywhere this year anyway. Much as I hate to throw in the towel so early, I really think Kriv will be best served by waiting on this one. Why shouldn't we wait until Kearns and/or Pena perform better on the field? Isn't that the reason we traded Casey in the first place: to showcase our outfielders and see what they've got?

As we know, the problem with pitching is that there is such a difference between league average guys (Harang, Claussen, Clement, Arroyo) and #1 starters, who are far rarer. Nobody in their right minds ever trades a healthy #1 starter unless they are out of the race and they won't be able to sign them next year and can get future #2 and #1 starters in return (see Billy Beane).

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I just don't think that another league average guy is going to change the Reds' fortunes that markedly in 2006. Maybe they go from 75 wins to 82 wiith Clement or Arroyo instead of Germano or Wilson. String together too many years like that and you'll start looking like the Reds of the mid 1980s (coincidentally the years I first started caring). You remember that frustrating bunch, right? The ones who suddenly got better when they lucked into a certain A's prospect when they traded (gasp) Dave Parker? Well, that's something like the trade we need now.

Beyond a doubt, what WILL drastically change the Reds' fortunes in the near future is if they can draft or deal for some future star pitchers. We all know, at least logically, how they can do the first option (hopefully Bailey is the first of many promising arms to infiltrate the farm system), but the second is trickier and it is where GMs make their names. While I might be tempted to take Clement now, I would imagine that better pitchers of the prospect variety will be available around the mid-season trade deadline this year. At that point, I wouldn't shy away from trading both Kearns AND Pena in order to give us a handful of 20-22 year-old ace prospects in the hopes that one or two might pan out.

Let's all just pray that Kriv knows when to hold 'em. Barring some amazing offer (Wily Mo and Milton for Clement and Papelbon?), I say we wait this out. IMO, now is the last time to jump at the first Dennis Rasmussen or Ryan Dempster that shows up at the door. :bang:

BTW, I think Wily Mo already has like triple the value that Glenn Braggs ever did. Don't get me wrong though: we can't put a price on the catch he made against the wall in '90 series against the Pirates! :beerme:

RedEye
03-20-2006, 01:28 AM
First of all, let's get this straight: his names is WILY Mo. Not Willie, not Willy, and not Winnie. Sorry guys, but it just really gets to me when people screw up a name that is so memorably strange in the first place. Kind of like Ickey Woods, but I digress...

Anyway, I just wanted to discuss the other teams that are rumored in the other Wily Mo thread in this forum: Baltimore, KC, and the Cubs. Anyone know anything about the pitchers they might have to offer? Personally, I'm not intrigued by Matt Clement, but if you threw a Zack Greinke or a Erik Bedard into the fray, you might bend my ear. What do people think? Perhaps we could get Greinke since he's a bit of head case, and maybe even throw in David DeJesus to lead off and play center field?

Here it is: Wily Mo Pena and Eric Milton to KC for Zack Greinke and David DeJesus.

Or this: Wily Mo Pena to Baltimore for Erik Bedard

What say you? Could Kriv pull it off?

tts1stros
03-20-2006, 01:37 AM
Wily Mo Pena and Eric Milton to KC for Zack Greinke and David DeJesus.

Or this: Wily Mo Pena to Baltimore for Erik Bedard
You're not the only team in MLB looking for #1 pitchers. Both of those teams need #1 starters as much as the Reds do. Certainly more than they need Wily Mo Pena.

I really don't think Pena's going to get a potential ace pitcher unless that pitcher's very, very far away. Like A-ball. With the corresponding uncertainty that comes with an A-ball pitcher.

Caveat Emperor
03-20-2006, 01:45 AM
You're not the only team in MLB looking for #1 pitchers. Both of those teams need #1 starters as much as the Reds do. Certainly more than they need Wily Mo Pena.

I really don't think Pena's going to get a potential ace pitcher unless that pitcher's very, very far away. Like A-ball. With the corresponding uncertainty that comes with an A-ball pitcher.

True. Which is why you throw OUR A-Ball ace into the mix and see what transpires.

I'd start offering Homer Bailey w/ Wily Mo and see if I couldn't coax some "tighter fisted" organizations into parting with some top-shelf young pitching that's further along in the development track. Might even get a few nibbles based on the recent success Bailey had in spring training.

Maybe then you get a team like the Red Sox talking about Papelbon AND Arroyo as opposed to just the latter.

tts1stros
03-20-2006, 01:54 AM
You're not the only team in MLB looking for #1 pitchers. Both of those teams need #1 starters as much as the Reds do. Certainly more than they need Wily Mo Pena.

I really don't think Pena's going to get a potential ace pitcher unless that pitcher's very, very far away. Like A-ball. With the corresponding uncertainty that comes with an A-ball pitcher.True. Which is why you throw OUR A-Ball ace into the mix and see what transpires.

I'd start offering Homer Bailey w/ Wily Mo and see if I couldn't coax some "tighter fisted" organizations into parting with some top-shelf young pitching that's further along in the development track. Might even get a few nibbles based on the recent success Bailey had in spring training.

Maybe then you get a team like the Red Sox talking about Papelbon AND Arroyo as opposed to just the latter.

That's not a bad idea. To tell you the truth, I think I understated it in my earlier post. I wouldn't give up a potential Halladay/Oswalt/Santana/Harden for Wily Mo Pena, even if he is at A-ball.

That might be your best shot at truly getting a #1. But I just don't see a team being willing to give up a truly, truly excellent pitching prospect for Wily Mo Pena.

jmcclain19
03-20-2006, 02:19 AM
It's always seemed to me that many folks around here seem to drastically overvaule Pena & especially Kearns' worth around baseball.

If anyone wants an interesting comparison - a blast from the past of the late 90's, take a look at the No. 1 player baseball-reference.com says Wily Mo's Career most resembles

http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp.cgi?I=penawi01:Wily+Mo+Pena&st=career


Sim Player From To Yrs G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SB CS OPS+
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
Wily Mo Pena 2002-2005 4 302 830 108 206 33 2 51 134 54 288 .248 .303 .477 10 5 100
964 Jon Nunnally 1995-2000 6 364 885 162 218 47 12 42 125 146 239 .246 .354 .469 19 12 111
962 Bob Thurman 1955-1959 5 334 663 106 163 18 11 35 106 62 112 .246 .314 .465 1 4 100
950 Brant Alyea 1965-1972 6 371 866 100 214 33 2 38 148 100 210 .247 .326 .421 5 7 112
950 Chuck Essegian 1958-1963 6 404 1018 139 260 45 4 47 150 97 233 .255 .323 .446 0 0 106
950 Roy Foster 1970-1972 3 337 1016 136 257 51 1 45 118 110 146 .253 .336 .438 9 6 112
949 Mike Simms 1990-1999 9 330 660 92 163 33 1 36 121 69 175 .247 .323 .464 4 4 108
945 Laynce Nix 2003-2005 3 231 784 111 194 42 7 28 108 41 211 .247 .285 .426 6 1 78

KronoRed
03-20-2006, 02:34 AM
We should hold Wily Mo and Kearns unless someone makes a decent offer, more junk won't help and they aren't going to bring in great young arms, keep em and hope.

Only player on this team who has the potential to bring a great arm is Lopez.

SteelSD
03-20-2006, 03:11 AM
You're not the only team in MLB looking for #1 pitchers. Both of those teams need #1 starters as much as the Reds do. Certainly more than they need Wily Mo Pena.

I really don't think Pena's going to get a potential ace pitcher unless that pitcher's very, very far away. Like A-ball. With the corresponding uncertainty that comes with an A-ball pitcher.

I'll have to disagree with Caveat and say that your contention is actually untrue.

In 2005, we saw exactly 21 MLB Outfielders who posted 300 or more PA who also posted a SLG of .500 or higher. Of those 21 players, here's the list of those who did it while being 25 years old or younger:

Miguel Cabrera
Johnny Gomes
Matt Holiday

If we've learned one thing about Pena it's that he has massive power. His SLG over the past two seasons is over .500. Team will pay for Slugging Percentage. Dumb teams will nearly ignore OBP for it. And players who've demonstrated that they can produce at the MLB level are certainly more valuable than a single "future ace" in A-Ball. Well, part of that is because "future aces" in A-Ball really don't so much exist.

That being said, you don't need to get a current MLB ace-level pitcher for Wily Mo. You don't necessarily need to grab one higher up the rung at AA or AAA either using a player like Pena. But then, you shouldn't settle for a mediocrity like Bronson Arroyo either.

The secret is to think two or three trades ahead. If you're looking to swap Pena, then don't only look for what you need- look for what other teams need as well. And for gosh sakes look at what other teams have a surplus of. Let's take a quote from a really good interview with one current trade-master, Mark Shapiro:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1655


BP: How were you able to then trade for Travis Hafner?

MS: We looked at Texas' system from a statistical and scouting standpoint, and we knew they had guys like Mark Teixeira and Hank Blalock, as well as Travis Hafner, and they might be prepared to make a trade. Hafner was a guy who came up on our radar screen. He had one of the most unique combinations of plate discipline and run production in the minor leagues. He has some work to do defensively, but the worst-case scenario is being in the AL, that offers us the option of the DH position.

With Montreal's system, Texas' system--we were prepared to make deals with those teams. Last year we knew that Montreal was the one team looking at the present only, that could afford to give up high-level prospects. That's why it worked.

Shapiro said a number of really really smart things during that interview and I'd suggest that everyone who hasn't yet read it do so.

The primary point is that you can win trades consistently if you understand both context and player projection. You want better than either an "A-Ball potential ace" or the ilk of Bronson Arroyo for Pena? Then get smart and firgure out how to do it indirectly. Figure out who has what and where and who needs what and where and be smarter about who should do what when than the next guy. THEN you've got something cooking.

If you can't get the high-level potential #2 or better for Pena up front, then you take a look at who needs power and who values SLG over OBP. Ironically, the Twins come to mind. The Angels as well. Tampa Bay is ripe for a picking and I'd certainly test the new Dodgers front office. Detroit is a dumb team. Ditto for Baltimore and the Mets. Talent aplenty for a young cheap guy who can produce sexy power numbers. I'd include Washington because we know Bowden can be taken pretty easily, but they have little to offer.

In any case, there's enough talent out there to make swap one with Pena and then use the returns to either replace other players you could move or to use the returns to make swaps two and three. Take Boston. They wanted to move Renteria. Atlanta needed a SS because they lost Furcal so they were willing to move Andy Marte for Renteria. The Indians then swooped in and grabbed Marte for Coco Crisp, who they received for a played-out Chuck Finley.

But what if it doesn't stop there? What if Shapiro turned to Tampa and dealt Marte and a PTBNL for a disgruntled B.J. Upton and Joey Gathright? And then moved Upton toward another team like Minnesota (who desperately needs a SS) for Francisco Liriano? And THEN moved Gathright to the Angels (who desperately need a CF) for Dallas McPherson?

Want/Need + Want/Need. In the end, that moving and shaking would result in a gain of Liriano and McPherson for the Indians at an initial cost of Coco Crisp (really Chuck Finley, but let's stay current). And don't think that kind of stuff can't happen. If a team has a need NOW they'll certainly pay in spades with players they feel are either redundant or not ready to help within the context of the current window.

Heck, it can happen by starting out with Pena as an initial deal principal. You just need to know context and player projection. Start moving the right "now" for the right "future" and the whole thing ends up taking care of itself if you're smart.

SteelSD
03-20-2006, 03:51 AM
It's always seemed to me that many folks around here seem to drastically overvaule Pena & especially Kearns' worth around baseball.

If anyone wants an interesting comparison - a blast from the past of the late 90's, take a look at the No. 1 player baseball-reference.com says Wily Mo's Career most resembles

Um...you might want to note that baseball-reference.com comps Pena through age 23 with the following hitters:

1. Jesse Barfield
2. Rocky Colavito
3. Pete Incaviglia
4. Bobby Bonds
5. Dave Kingman
6. Willie Montanez
7. Billy Conigliaro
8. Willie Horton
9. Harmon Killebrew
10. Roger Maris

The average career OPS+ for those players is 119. The last two seasons, Pena's OPS+ was 121 and 101. For the players you noted, their average OPS+ is 102.

Going even further, the ten players you listed put up a combined 878 AB before the age of 24. Of the ten players on your list only four of them reached the Show when under 24 years old (Nunnally, Nix, Diaz, Simms) and two of them (Mike Diaz, Mike Simms) combined for only 20 AB.

baseball-reference.com does a generally crappy job of actually comparing players in those lists because they give points for what is generally irrelevant stuff. In the end, Pena comps with very few players because of his unique skill set. That doesn't mean he's incredibly better than the players he might comp with. But, certainly, teams will pay for the skills he has and I'd oversell those skills at every opportunity.

Krusty
03-20-2006, 07:48 AM
Nothing personal Krusty but do you realize the Reds have Chris Denorfia that can also play outfield. In almost all these scenarios that not only you but alot posters leave out that the fact that Denorfia can man the OF if someone gets traded. I would like to see Freel in the lineup everyday but the Reds have made it pretty clear about what role they want Freel to play on this team, a utility man. That means not starting in LF and occasionally going to CF or as some others suggest starting everyday at 2nd base, yadda yadda yadda. I don't know if all of this is like a fairytale in your head but I think we need to make a little push towards reality here.

Young players need to play everyday. That is why I see Denorfia starting the season at Louisville with reserve veterans like Cruz and McCracken filling in the outfield. As I also said, they want Freel up at the top of the lineup everyday and the best scenario would have him in the outfield.

wolfboy
03-20-2006, 09:27 AM
I'll have to disagree with Caveat and say that your contention is actually untrue.

In 2005, we saw exactly 21 MLB Outfielders who posted 300 or more PA who also posted a SLG of .500 or higher. Of those 21 players, here's the list of those who did it while being 25 years old or younger:

Miguel Cabrera
Johnny Gomes
Matt Holiday

If we've learned one thing about Pena it's that he has massive power. His SLG over the past two seasons is over .500. Team will pay for Slugging Percentage. Dumb teams will nearly ignore OBP for it. And players who've demonstrated that they can produce at the MLB level are certainly more valuable than a single "future ace" in A-Ball. Well, part of that is because "future aces" in A-Ball really don't so much exist.

That being said, you don't need to get a current MLB ace-level pitcher for Wily Mo. You don't necessarily need to grab one higher up the rung at AA or AAA either using a player like Pena. But then, you shouldn't settle for a mediocrity like Bronson Arroyo either.

The secret is to think two or three trades ahead. If you're looking to swap Pena, then don't only look for what you need- look for what other teams need as well. And for gosh sakes look at what other teams have a surplus of. Let's take a quote from a really good interview with one current trade-master, Mark Shapiro:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1655



Shapiro said a number of really really smart things during that interview and I'd suggest that everyone who hasn't yet read it do so.

The primary point is that you can win trades consistently if you understand both context and player projection. You want better than either an "A-Ball potential ace" or the ilk of Bronson Arroyo for Pena? Then get smart and firgure out how to do it indirectly. Figure out who has what and where and who needs what and where and be smarter about who should do what when than the next guy. THEN you've got something cooking.

If you can't get the high-level potential #2 or better for Pena up front, then you take a look at who needs power and who values SLG over OBP. Ironically, the Twins come to mind. The Angels as well. Tampa Bay is ripe for a picking and I'd certainly test the new Dodgers front office. Detroit is a dumb team. Ditto for Baltimore and the Mets. Talent aplenty for a young cheap guy who can produce sexy power numbers. I'd include Washington because we know Bowden can be taken pretty easily, but they have little to offer.

In any case, there's enough talent out there to make swap one with Pena and then use the returns to either replace other players you could move or to use the returns to make swaps two and three. Take Boston. They wanted to move Renteria. Atlanta needed a SS because they lost Furcal so they were willing to move Andy Marte for Renteria. The Indians then swooped in and grabbed Marte for Coco Crisp, who they received for a played-out Chuck Finley.

But what if it doesn't stop there? What if Shapiro turned to Tampa and dealt Marte and a PTBNL for a disgruntled B.J. Upton and Joey Gathright? And then moved Upton toward another team like Minnesota (who desperately needs a SS) for Francisco Liriano? And THEN moved Gathright to the Angels (who desperately need a CF) for Dallas McPherson?

Want/Need + Want/Need. In the end, that moving and shaking would result in a gain of Liriano and McPherson for the Indians at an initial cost of Coco Crisp (really Chuck Finley, but let's stay current). And don't think that kind of stuff can't happen. If a team has a need NOW they'll certainly pay in spades with players they feel are either redundant or not ready to help within the context of the current window.

Heck, it can happen by starting out with Pena as an initial deal principal. You just need to know context and player projection. Start moving the right "now" for the right "future" and the whole thing ends up taking care of itself if you're smart.


This is a great post Steel. There are a lot of people willing to trade Pena for Arroyo or Clement, but you have to ask how it really benefits the team.

Clement comes at a high price for the next two years. If the Reds were close to contention, I'd be all for it. Unfortunately, they aren't one player away. If you decide to flip Clement at the deadline, you're paying millions to do so. The prospects you get in return better be worth millions.

Arroyo is a relatively mediocre pitcher with a friendly price tag. Again, how does he help the Reds? If you needed back of the rotation filler on a contender, he's worth it. The Reds aren't in that situation.

So, what to do with Pena? I think Steel illustrates a perfect scenario. You don't have to target A level pitchers, Clement, or Arroyo. The key is knowing what other teams are willing to give up in a trade. There are teams out there that place a high value on SLG. Stay on the phone with those teams until you can get maximum value for Pena's skill set. If it's not pitching, no big deal. You can move those parts for what you need later. The key is knowing what you have, and what others want. Get maximum value for what you are trading. I sincerely hope that Krivsky can do this. If he can't, this team can look forward to many more years of disappointment.

Bob Borkowski
03-20-2006, 11:00 AM
Just announced on WLW radio: Wily Mo Pena for Bronson Arroyo

BrooklynRedz
03-20-2006, 11:01 AM
Put a sticky on it...this is a done deal.