Trade: Wily Mo to Red Sox

[GridironGrace]

An Article i Read said that Freel would most likely be In RF on opening day.

Cant remember if it was the one on reds.com or if i read it somewhere else.

I almost think you HAVE to start Freel now. Hopefully his bat is as good as last year and having him in the lineup everyday would be better then Hatteburg.

We do have alot of ways to mix up the INF and OF by moving players all over. I suspect Valentin to play 1B a few times this season as well as Aurilla.

I wouldnt discard the Fact that JR might take a crack at 1B at some point in the season if need be.. and i feel thats what shoulda been done anways.. just based on the fact he sat o ut games last year only because the Feild was Wet and in bad condition and they didnt wanna risk injury to him playing CF..

move him to first in those situations so he's still in the lineup.

I dunno man i cant think right now anyways..... Im REALLY Gonna miss Pena.

[GridironGrace]

1 k every 3 ab's - 1 BB every 17, never hit above .280 anywhere and fielded like he had a ashtray for a glove.

Pena couldn't carry Dunn's jock much alone the team.

Be disgusted but at least note the concept of reality.

And in another season or so he'll be a Big Name in MLB.

He's improving and working hard to do so. He was right there with Lopez most of last year taking extra fly balls and BP.

Pena WILL Be Great.
I just hope that this turns out to be a good deal, if its not...we are back to square one in a few seasons because of Pena being gone.

[traderumor]

That's a Narron-ism if I ever heard one. Good Lord.
I grew up listening to "The Main Spark." I'm used to not listening to much managers say.

[klw]

Ode to Wily Mo

Farewell Wily Mo
Shame to see you go
Bad contract stuck you in the Show
You could have laid low
Or become hooked on blow
Intead you went with the flow
Tried to become defensively in the know
If you stayed your homers would have brought dough
May greatness follow
Unless you become an Astro.




Thank you. Thank you very much. Enjoy Kajagoogoo

[kbrake]

I dont even know what to say, other then I love this trade, and no I'm not kidding. I was at work until now and am just reading up on the trade. When I first heard it I got real excited thinking it would get Denorfia in the OF and add a good starter. However it seems it took Narron virtually no time to screw that up, oh well he is gone by the end of June anyways. I really dont see what the love affair is with Wily Mo, yeah I liked him and wish him the best in Boston, and I understand he could hit the ball real far, but to say he is better in the OF then Dunn or anyone else we have is laughable.
I also read where someone said that they were just getting excited but this shot that in the foot, are you kidding? This team was going to lose 100 games with Wily Mo and might still do it but I dont understand why everyone loves losing every game 9-6.

[westofyou]

He's improving and working hard to do so. He was right there with Lopez most of last year taking extra fly balls and BP.

Tony Armas took extra BP, so did Ellis Valentine.

[GridironGrace]

I said it shot me in the foot.. I was VERY excited about the season.

Im still a little excited now but its purely to see how this deal works out now.

I really dont Feel like Arroyo is better then what we already have here. And a deal like this should get BETTER not the same as what you got.

I hope im wrong.. may even pray that im wrong :)

but as of right now i dont know what to expect this season.. before this trade i expected one thing.

Our young players to get better, and Our Young pitchers to get closer to thier prime.

Now.. i just wanna see if this helps us.. or makes it worse.

I dont see the trade HURTING US. But i dont see it making us better either.

[Caveat Emperor]

And in another season or so he'll be a Big Name in MLB.

He's improving and working hard to do so. He was right there with Lopez most of last year taking extra fly balls and BP.

Pena WILL Be Great.
I just hope that this turns out to be a good deal, if its not...we are back to square one in a few seasons because of Pena being gone.

Pena was going to be gone within a year -- this franchise is simply too pitching starved to have kept a player like him around. The issue isn't with Wily Mo Pena leaving, the issue is more with what return the Reds were going to get for him.

And, there's no way of knowing whether Pena would be great or not, but as a GM, you can't get too enamored with what MIGHT be while reality is crumbling around you in the present. That's why a team cannot put too much stock in a guy throwing ace-calibur innings in AA or a young major leaguer with limitless potential but difficulty in tapping it all.

Pena MIGHT be great. He might be medicore. He might be anything. The key is not to get vapor-lock wondering what's going to happen and watch as opportunities to improve the ballclub pass by.

[Chip R]

An Article i Read said that Freel would most likely be In RF on opening day.


And Kearns isn't going to start in RF? :confused:


I almost think you HAVE to start Freel now. Hopefully his bat is as good as last year and having him in the lineup everyday would be better then Hatteburg.

The Reds don't see it like that. They think Freel will hurt himself if he starts too much. It's utter bull but that is what they believe.


We do have alot of ways to mix up the INF and OF by moving players all over. I suspect Valentin to play 1B a few times this season as well as Aurilla.

If Valentin plays 1st, the terrorists have won.


I wouldnt discard the Fact that JR might take a crack at 1B at some point in the season if need be.. and i feel thats what shoulda been done anways.. just based on the fact he sat o ut games last year only because the Feild was Wet and in bad condition and they didnt wanna risk injury to him playing CF..


They believe that Jr. is at a greater risk of injury playing 1st, RF or LF than he would be if he plays CF. Plus I'm sure he doesn't want to move from CF yet - it's a pride thing.

[Newman4]

I hate to see Wily Mo gone. He was my favorite Red. My dog was named after Wily Mo. My little girl's first ever Reds game was Wily Mo Pena bobblehead night. I can only think what would've been. I hope Arroyo turns out to be solid for the Reds, but as I mentioned earlier, I'm the newest BoSox fan.

[GridironGrace]

Understandable.

But does this trade make us BETTER?

LIke i said before... i dont see it makign us any worse.. that would be hard to do :(

But does it improve us at all?

Its sad when the over under on us for WINS this season is 75.5 Wins
I said OVER.. Does this trade help win me my Bet??

[kbrake]

Those who dont think we got enough, I'm just curious what did you want and please be realisitc. I understand wanting more, but I also understand what I see as Pena's worth. You think he struggled in RF at GABP, it will much more than a struggle playing RF at Fenway.

[GridironGrace]

Whats this make our lineup now??
Predictions?

1B Dunn
2B Aurrilla
3B Edwin
C Larue
SS Lopez
RF Kearns/Freel
LF Freel/Kearns
CF JR

So Batting order:

Freel
Lopez
Jr
Kearns
Dunn
Aurilla
Larue
Edwin.

I dunno its hard to split up JR and Dunn now and Protect them

[Highlifeman21]

Understandable.

But does this trade make us BETTER?

LIke i said before... i dont see it makign us any worse.. that would be hard to do :(

But does it improve us at all?

Its sad when the over under on us for WINS this season is 75.5 Wins
I said OVER.. Does this trade help win me my Bet??


Before this trade, Buster Olney had us between 70 - 73 wins. This trade can only help us with your over of 75.5 wins now. Arroyo helps us win at least 3 games to push the over of 75.5, plus we led the NL in runs last year with WMP out of the lineup for the majority of the year.

IMO, we got proven talent (Arroyo) for a crap shoot (Pena). I wanna know what number Arroyo's gonna rock for us so I can pick up his jersey!

[puca]

From baseballreference.com

Bronson Arroyo Similar Pitchers through Age 28 :

Mike Harkey (978)
Kevin Foster (975)
Chris Codiroli (974)
Rodrigo Lopez (974)
Sean Bergman (972)
Art Ditmar (970)
Ted Lilly (969)
Brett Tomko (968)
Chad Ogea (967)
Scott Sanders (967)



Yea!

[SidneySlicker]

Willy Mo had 13 errors and 10 assist over the last 3 years. He is a defensive liability. Could he hit the ball a mile? Sure. You don't get to championships with players like that, and anyone who says he's gonna be a big time player in a year or two, I think thats doubtful. It's looking like he'll probably only platoon in Boston. To be a "Big time player" I think you have to be a difference maker on offense and defense. Most of the people here are hypocrites as you whine all day and night about not having enough pitching and once they make a move to bring a pitcher who has had a pretty decent career so far, is affordable and still pretty young, you rip them. Make up your minds people. We weren't going to get anything more for a one dimensional player.

[puca]

Those who dont think we got enough, I'm just curious what did you want and please be realisitc. I understand wanting more, but I also understand what I see as Pena's worth. You think he struggled in RF at GABP, it will much more than a struggle playing RF at Fenway.


Brett Tomko

[Chip R]

Willy Mo had 13 errors and 10 assist over the last 3 years. He is a defensive liability. Could he hit the ball a mile? Sure. You don't get to championships with players like that, and anyone who says he's gonna be a big time player in a year or two, I think thats doubtful. It's looking like he'll probably only platoon in Boston. To be a "Big time player" I think you have to be a difference maker on offense and defense.

The guys playing LF and DH for the Sox would disagree with you.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Argh.. I hate Mondays! This one will hurt. BoSox were only going to use Bronson as middle relief and now he's going to be possibly the Reds 2nd or 3rd starter.

[elfmanvt07]

Argh.. I hate Mondays! This one will hurt. BoSox were only going to use Bronson as middle relief and now he's going to be possibly the Reds 2nd or 3rd starter.

Frankly, they can do that. They have the pitching talent on tap up there.

[OnBaseMachine]

http://www.chattanoogan.com/articles/article_82322.asp

Reds Trade Former Lookout Wily Mo Pena To Boston
Cincinnati Acquires Pitcher Bronson Arroyo
by Tim Evearitt
posted March 20, 2006

The Cincinnati Reds today (Monday) acquired right handed pitcher Bronson Arroyo and cash from the Boston Red Sox for outfielder Wily Mo Pena.

Pena spent the 2002 in Chattanooga playing for the Lookouts where he batted .255 with 11 home runs and 47 RBI.

It was no secret that the Reds were in great need of pitching and the trade should improve the 2006 team.

The Red Sox could afford to deal Arroyo because they still have Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Matt Clement, David Wells and Tim Wakefield to anchor the rotation.

Until the trade, it appeared that Adam Dunn would become a first baseman so that Pena could become an everyday outfielder. This past winter Pena demanded of the Reds: "play me, or trade me." Today he got their answer.

Austin Kearns (another former Chattanooga player who had divided time with Pena in the outfield) had no comment on the trade, but obviously had to be very pleased.

General Manager Wayne Krivsky, speaking in Sarasota outside the Reds' complex, said the talks have been going on for four or five days. "The trade," he suggested, "should be beneficial for both teams. The Red Sox had a surplus of starting pitchers. They have about seven starting pitchers and they needed a right handed bat to complement Trot Nixon in right field. Where they play Pena is up to them."

Arroyo has appeared in the post season in each of the last three seasons, including as a member of the 2004 World Champion Boston Red Sox.

Originally selected by the Pirates in the third round of the June 1995 draft, Arroyo owns a career record of 33-33.

"I think we're a better team with Arroyo in the rotation," said the new Reds' GM.

Krivsky said that the acquisition of first baseman Scott Hatteberg made the deal possible. He continued, "It looks like Adam Dunn will be in left and Hatteberg will be getting more playing time at first. I think over time Adam Dunn would be an accomplished first baseman, at the very least adequate or average over time."

Krivsky concluded by saying, "When you put it all together we got a starting pitcher, Adam goes back to a position that he's familiar with, and now Hatteberg can play first. I just think we're a better team."

In return, the Red Sox get Pena, 24, a powerful right-handed hitter who batted .248 with 51 home runs and 134 RBIs in 302 games with the Reds from 2002-05. After a breakout season in 2004 in which he belted 26 homers in just 336 at-bats, Pena was squeezed in and out of the lineup throughout 2005 due to the Reds' crowded outfield that also included Ken Griffey, Jr., Austin Kearns and Ryan Freel. Still, Pena hit 19 home runs in only 311 at-bats last season.

Pena gives the Sox some right-handed pop in the lineup in the event Mike Lowell's struggles extend into the regular season.

http://www.chattanoogan.com/articles/article_82322.asp

:laugh:

[joeberk]

The deal works for me.

Oh, if this deal ruined opening day for you, and you've got tickets to same, I'm here to help.

:D

[KronoRed]

Hey! I didn't see we got pile o cash..I'd missed him :D

[letsgojunior]

1 k every 3 ab's - 1 BB every 17, never hit above .280 anywhere and fielded like he had a ashtray for a glove.

Pena couldn't carry Dunn's jock much alone the team.

Be disgusted but at least note the concept of reality.

:clap:

[kbrake]

I must say Hatteberg to first and Denorfia still not in the OF everyday certainly does make this a little bit painful. I just dont see why it would be so hard for the Reds to make one good transacition. They always seem away to screw things up afterwards. The only thing I can think of is that perhaps Dunn was begging to move back to LF/ or those who have watched him this spring were begging for him to go back to LF, doubt we will ever know.

[Tommyjohn25]

Hey! I didn't see we got pile o cash..I'd missed him :D


Yeah, I think alot of people here are looking the pile o' cash over. Like I said in another post, this is the beginning of a series of trades. 1.5 million included in this move is nothing to sneeze at.

[Falls City Beer]

I'm sure it's been mentioned, but Arroyo put up pretty nice numbers in the toughest offensive division in baseball. It's not like he's coming from the AL Central or NL West. Arroyo has to face the brutes.

[Tommyjohn25]

I'm sure it's been mentioned, but Arroyo put up pretty nice numbers in the toughest offensive division in baseball. It's not like he's coming from the AL Central or NL West. Arroyo has to face the brutes.


Good call FCB.

[Patrick Bateman]

Yeah, plus we traded for a pitcher with a career ERA over 5 in the National League. I think we could have gotten more.

C'mon you are much smarter than that. Those statistics are meaningless at this point in his career.

[corkedbat]

Can Arroyo demand a trade after the season since he was traded in the middle of a LTC? Never sure how those kind of things work.

[traderumor]

They might have to come up with a special Wily Mo insurance policy in the Monster Seats with some of the bombs he hits to left.

[Red Leader]

Can Arroyo demand a trade after the season since he was traded in the middle of a LTC? Never sure how those kind of things work.

No, as has been explained in this thread, and the other one ( I got it wrong initially, too), he can't request a trade since he wasn't FA eligible before signing that contract. He's here all 3 years unless we trade him.

[traderumor]

Can Arroyo demand a trade after the season since he was traded in the middle of a LTC? Never sure how those kind of things work.I'm thinking that is a poison pill that some guys have put in their contracts, but I don't think its a rule. Plus, Arroyo just signed his contract this January.

[Heath]

I'm going to take a time-out here.

I actuallly (gulp) agree with Falls City Beer.

For, that last statement, I'm going to get some Listerine and then have a Rolling Rock. Maybe even together.


:D


Hope for all the doubters - Arroyo goes career year - he gets flipped at the trade deadline. We can all hope.

[KronoRed]

Listerine clears the sinuses

[Falls City Beer]

It was a gutsy and correct move for Krivsky. I hope he's got several more cooking.

[harangatang]

I'm sure it's been mentioned, but Arroyo put up pretty nice numbers in the toughest offensive division in baseball. It's not like he's coming from the AL Central or NL West. Arroyo has to face the brutes.

That's a very good point and something else is that he also pitched well for the BoSox in the postseason. I don't know or remember his stats but I remember him being a vital part of the postseason especially the 2004 World Series run. With Arroyo switching leagues and to a less favorable offensive division I think there's no reason to expect a huge improvement on his numbers.

I also like this trade because it makes Cincinnati look better for pitchers who may want to come here in the 2007 offseason. With Harang, Claussen, and Arroyo in starting rotation it may be possible for the Reds to have a legitimate shot at signing an ace such as Barry Zito. It is unfortunate we had lose the potential of Pena but it's not like the Reds don't have enough offense anyway. I don't think this trade will bring a championship to Cincinnati but I think it may act as the catalyst that spurs other moves that will.

[blumj]

They might have to come up with a special Wily Mo insurance policy in the Monster Seats with some of the bombs he hits to left.

If he's anything like Manny, that won't be a problem, just don't park your car on the top of the parking garage across the street and look out on the Mass Pike. It's the opposite field Ortiz HRs that you actually have to worry about in the Monster seats.

[SteelSD]

That's a very good point and something else is that he also pitched well for the BoSox in the postseason. I don't know or remember his stats but I remember him being a vital part of the postseason especially the 2004 World Series run.

In five postseason series, Arroyo's ERA is 7.41. During th 2004 playoffs, Arroyo posted a 7.80 ERA.

[Raisor]

I'm hoping Arrorroorroooo! (cool, he's a wookie) will be eaiser to flip for some good arms at the deadline.

That's all I got.

[Cedric]

In five postseason series, Arroyo's ERA is 7.41. During th 2004 playoffs, Arroyo posted a 7.80 ERA.

I have a weird feeling that we won't see Arroyo in a Reds postseason game. Just a wild hunch.

[Red Leader]

In five postseason series, Arroyo's ERA is 7.41. During th 2004 playoffs, Arroyo posted a 7.80 ERA.

Yeah, but that was his first post season exposure. Now he comes to the Reds with "experience". ;)

[KronoRed]

Yeah, but that was his first post season exposure. Now he comes to the Reds with "experience". ;)
Solid vet experience

[Red Leader]

I'm hoping Arrorroorroooo! (cool, he's a wookie) will be eaiser to flip for some good arms at the deadline.

That's all I got.

My thoughts exactly. Pray he pitches like a Cy Young contender the first couple months of the season and then sell him.

[Raisor]

Egads,

This opens up a really really scary Sunday Special lineup

1B Human Pickin Machine
2B WOmack
SS Rich "The Horror"
3B Frank Manachevits

GAAAHHHH

[Chip R]

Yeah, but that was his first post season exposure. Now he comes to the Reds with "experience". ;)

He knows how to win.

[OnBaseMachine]

How long before Narron mentions Arroyo's playoff experience?

[vaticanplum]

Argh.. I hate Mondays! This one will hurt. BoSox were only going to use Bronson as middle relief and now he's going to be possibly the Reds 2nd or 3rd starter.

This isn't true. The projected 2006 starting rotation for the Red Sox was Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, clement and Arroyo. There was the chance that Papelbon would be brought up, but there are also still huge questions surrounding Schilling (and to a degree beckett as well).

Regarding the 2004 postseaons, that ERA, while pathetic, is kind of misleading. Arroyo started game 3, the Boston Massacre which the Yankees won 19-8, pitched just two innings, and was dreadful. But he pitched just an inning each in games 5 and 6, garnering neither a win nor a loss, allowing two hits total, which of course is not great, but four innings is hardly enough to rate him as awful in the postseason. One of those games was the infamous Slappy McBluelips game.

[KronoRed]

How long before Narron mentions Arroyo's playoff experience?
The first time he gets slammed for 6 runs in 3 innings.

[PickOff]

Your 2006 Redlegs opening day lineup per Jerron and Waynesky:

Womack 2b
Lopez ss
Griffey cf
Kearns rf
Dunn lf
Encarnacion 3b
Hatteberg 1b
Larue c
Harang p


You know Narron is just salavating at a L,R,L,R,L,R,L,R lineup. mmmm...yummy. I know it will pain him to put Hatteberg below Encarnacion but the lure of the L,R nectar will be too much.

My lineup (like it makes any difference)

Freel 2b(lf)
Lopez ss
Dunn 1b
Griffey cf
Kearns rf
Encarnacion 3b
Larue c
Denorfia lf (Hatteberg 1b/Aurilia 2b)
Harang p

[KronoRed]

The best lineup the Reds could run out..IMO

LF Freel
SS Lopez
1B Dunn
CF JR
RF Kearns
3B EE
C LaRue
2B Richey

[LincolnparkRed]

So I was looking at who I thought this trade would compare to and I thought about Jose Guillen. The reds traded him as part of the 2003 purge sand got two unproved pitchers Harang and Valentine. Now I totally agree the WMP has a higher ceiling than Jose but Jose had about 200 more games worth of experience and had some sucess, decent average, less power but he could only get us two mid level minor leaguers.

I guess I am saying that although this trade does not excite me we at least are trying to get something proven vs. potential and for the new owners it comes down to attendance this year to set the tone for their ownership.

[Falls City Beer]

Freel 2nd
Lopez SS
Dunn 1st
Junior LF
Kearns RF
EE 3rd
Denorfia CF
Larue C

Easily the optimal lineup. Easily.

[Raisor]

Freel 2nd
Lopez SS
Dunn 1st
Junior LF
Kearns RF
EE 3rd
Denorfia CF
Larue C

Easily the optimal lineup. Easily.

I still like

Freel 2B
EddieE 3B
Dunn 1B
Junior LF
Lopez SS
Kearns RF
LaRue C
Denofia CF

EddieE hitting second still does it for me. Hitting in front of Dunn=s-u-cc-e-ss.

[PickOff]

I still like

Freel 2B
EddieE 3B
Dunn 1B
Junior LF
Lopez SS
Kearns RF
LaRue C
Denofia CF

EddieE hitting second still does it for me. Hitting in front of Dunn=s-u-cc-e-ss.

Too much pressure on the kid, IMO, I'd keep him in the 6 slot.

[Falls City Beer]

I still like

Freel 2B
EddieE 3B
Dunn 1B
Junior LF
Lopez SS
Kearns RF
LaRue C
Denofia CF

EddieE hitting second still does it for me. Hitting in front of Dunn=s-u-cc-e-ss.

Sure. That'll work too. I guess I was thinking less "order" than who's in the lineup and what position they should man.

[OnBaseMachine]

2B Freel
SS Lopez
LF Dunn
CF Griffey
RF Kearns
3B Encarnacion
1B Shealy/Choi
C LaRue

[adampad]

1 k every 3 ab's - 1 BB every 17, never hit above .280 anywhere and fielded like he had a ashtray for a glove.

Pena couldn't carry Dunn's jock much alone the team.

Be disgusted but at least note the concept of reality.

WMP: AB/k = .346
Dunn: AB/k = .322

Dunn has never hit above .270.

And Dunn was allowed to learn the game in the minors and plays everyday. And if WMP has a ashtry for a glove, Dunn has a water balloon for a glove and a water pistol for an arm.

[PickOff]

What really buggers me about all this is that Hatteberg is 36 and had a poor year last year with alot of at bats. His bat speed has got to be suffering. It is probably asking too much for him to rebound. Best case we are looking at a 750 ops and average defense. Screams bench player to me. Give Denorfia shot. I don't think Dunn would be any worse defensively than Hatteberg and Denorfia would be at least as good as Dunn in the field.

[OnBaseMachine]

WMP: AB/k = .346
Dunn: AB/k = .322

Dunn has never hit above .270.

And Dunn was allowed to learn the game in the minors and plays everyday. And if WMP has a ashtry for a glove, Dunn has a water balloon for a glove and a water pistol for an arm.

Ah, the important batting average.

Adam Dunn is one of a couple handful of hitters still active with a career OPS over .900. Pena, as much as I love his power, has a career .780 OPS. Pena is not even in Dunn's league.

Dunn is a better fielder too.

[vaticanplum]

What really buggers me about all this is

No, it bugs you -- the imagery of buggering is bad, bad.

Back to baseball, carry on.

[adampad]

What is the point of trading for Arroyo? Lets be honest. He is not going to make us a contender. So why trade our potential superstar away? I would rather watch WMP play everyday and the Reds go 70-92 than not having him and going 80-82. The trade might be a step in the right direction but its at the wrong time.

[OnBaseMachine]

IF Arroyo can return to his 2004 form, then I won't mind the deal. What hurts the most is the fact that Womack and Hatteberg will now be everyday players. Just awful.

Krivsky needs to pick up a 1B before Opening Day. Ryan Shealy and Hee Seop Choi are available, go get 'em Krivsky.

[adampad]

Ah, the important batting average.

Adam Dunn is one of a couple handful of hitters still active with a career OPS over .900. Pena, as much as I love his power, has a career .780 OPS. Pena is not even in Dunn's league.

Dunn is a better fielder too.

Your putting words in my mouth. He said WMP never hit over .280 so I am simply reminding him that Dunn hasn't ever hit over .270. Oh and by the way, they have the exact same career AVG.

[westofyou]

Dunn has never hit above .270.

Sure he has, every year in the minors.

WMP... nah.

K's are closer than I recall, but the walks soften that quite a bit.

[Cyclone792]

2B Freel
RF Kearns
1B Dunn
LF Griffey
3B Encarnacion
SS Lopez
CF Denorfia
C LaRue

Will never happen, but I'd love to see it.

I look up a bit in the thread and notice that Raisor and I are thinking along very similar lines here.

[uks2h]

Just a view of where I am in my mind at this point....

We had good offense, and bad pitching. Now, we trade the good offense (Casey, Pena, who's next?) and sign a bunch of "veterans".

Two of the most loved players in Cincy were traded for mediocre pitchers.

One thing I have learned (as I sit here and watch Reitsma pitch for the Braves) is that if I'm going to be a lifetime Reds fan, I might as well get used to mediocrity for a while. I just hope we can make the playoffs before I'm too old to go. I'm 21, by the way. :P

[Gainesville Red]

Shealy's a gator, obviously meaning we need him. Wonder if he "know's how to play the game"?

[OnBaseMachine]

Your putting words in my mouth. He said WMP never hit over .280 so I am simply reminding him that Dunn hasn't ever hit over .270.

Dunn never hit below .281 in the minors.

[vaticanplum]

What is the point of trading for Arroyo? Lets be honest. He is not going to make us a contender. So why trade our potential superstar away? I would rather watch WMP play everyday and the Reds go 70-92 than not having him and going 80-82. The trade might be a step in the right direction but its at the wrong time.

No one pitcher is going to make the Reds a contender, not even Roger Clemens. And we have a small handful of potential (hitting) superstars.

A ten-game difference for one year may not be a huge difference, no. Fifteen or twenty games in two years will. These things take time. I will be very interested to see what Krivsky decides to do with Womack, Hatteberg, Denorfia and Freel in the future. I do think this is a step (albeit a slow one) in the right direction.

[beb30]

Arroyo is NOT a groundball pitcher. He is a flyball pitcher who happens to keep the ball in the park.

Career for Arroyo
776 Groundball Outs
792 Flyball Outs

essentially 50/50

[adampad]

Dunn never hit below .281 in the minors.

And WMP version of the minors was THE SHOW.

[RedRoser]

Well, hmmm. Just checked in to read a little and discovered that there's NO MO WILY MO!
Gotta like getting some pitching for him, but I'm not totally sold on the deal yet.
Anyway, Wily Mo's going to my SECOND favorite team---The Red Sox---so I'm pleased with that at least.
I've had a gut feeling, even back to last year, that Pena was going to be gone before this season opened. Casey, however, was a lot more of a shocker for me and a lot harder to swallow.

---'Roser

[adampad]

Just a view of where I am in my mind at this point....

We had good offense, and bad pitching. Now, we trade the good offense (Casey, Pena, who's next?) and sign a bunch of "veterans".

Two of the most loved players in Cincy were traded for mediocre pitchers.

One thing I have learned (as I sit here and watch Reitsma pitch for the Braves) is that if I'm going to be a lifetime Reds fan, I might as well get used to mediocrity for a while. I just hope we can make the playoffs before I'm too old to go. I'm 21, by the way. :P

This is my point excactly

[flyer85]

Tony Womack playing at all is harmful. Make no mistake about that.His 90% PECOTA projection still has a -3.6 VORP. That means even if he has a "great year for him" he will still be below replacement level. UGH!

[westofyou]

And WMP version of the minors was THE SHOW.
WMP had 1438 ML ab's and Dunn only 1208.

[redsmetz]

His 90% PECOTA projection still has a -3.6 VORP. That means even if he has a "great year for him" he will still be below replacement level. UGH!

Okay, I'm a newbie here - what is PECOTA?

joe

[flyer85]

Best case we are looking at a 750 ops and average defense. Screams bench player to me. His defense at first has always been below average. He has had negative FRAAs every year.

[flyer85]

Okay, I'm a newbie here - what is PECOTA?forecasting model.

see baseballprospectus.com

[redsmetz]

More from the Boston Globe:

Theo on Wily Mo
By Boston.com Staff
Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein called into Boston sports radio station WEEI this afternoon to discuss the trade that sent pitcher Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena. A summary of his comments (not direct quotes) follow:


Wily Mo Pena brings something for now and he brings a lot of potential for the future. Now, he has the ability to hit left-handed pitching and brings raw power. At his age, 24, he can get whole lot better.


In the future, Pena has the potential to be a legitimate middle-of-the-order power hitter. He strikes out a lot, and has not had a traditional development curve. The track record for players this young with this power is pretty good. If he hits his potential, he’s got a chance to be an impact guy but there is risk involved with this skill set.


He’s under our control this year, 2007, 2008 ... he was so good at 16 years old, such a physical freak, that was signed to major league contract out of the Dominican Republic.


Because he was signed so young, he eventually ran out of options and had to play at the major league level before he was ready. He’s been in big leagues for four years, with 850 at bats. We understand he’s a little behind. He has incredible raw tools. He is 6-foot-4, 245 pounds, is an above average runner, has a lot of power and a fantastic throwing arm. He hasn’t realized his full potential.


Strikeouts. There is no way around them. He’s No. 1 in strikeout ratio, that’s something that will decline with age but will always be a part of his game. The strikeouts are going to come. The pitch that gives him trouble: sliders from right-handed pitchers, chases them away ... hits left-handed pitching so much better. Very common for young hitters to chase away breaking balls. He’s got to learn to make pitchers come into the strike zone. He’s started to figure out how to make pitchers throw strikes in winter ball. He’s not going have a great walk rate, strike out rate, overnight, but had great winter ball.


Even if improvement doesn’t come right away, the way he hits left-handed pitching is an asset for us. His defense is like his offense. He can play center field, too. It’s up to Terry Francona to implement him into the lineup. We want him to get at-bats, to continue development.


I talked to him. We’re going to get him as much playing time as we can. He’s a hard worker who wants to get better. We think he’s coming into a nurturing environment.

Theo on Bronson Arroyo:


I’ve seen it repeated about a ‘gentlemen’s agreement,’ ... I talked to Jed Hoyer about the contract. The topic came up, but we said we cannot guarantee you’ll not be traded. There was nothing hot. No imminent trade talks. But certainly things change over months. There was no gentleman’s agreement. No handshake. Obviously he wanted to stay in Boston. It’s tough to do to someone who’s been a loyal soldier, enjoys being in Boston. But have to do what’s best for the organization.


We like Lenny DiNardo, Jonathan Papelbon, and Jon Lester, who may be ready to help us at the end of the season. I still think we have enough pitching depth but don’t hold me to it if we’re scrambling for bodies in June.

[vaticanplum]

We like Lenny DiNardo, Jonathan Papelbon, and Jon Lester, who may be ready to help us at the end of the season. I still think we have enough pitching depth but don’t hold me to it if we’re scrambling for bodies in June.

Almost every ounce of hatred I have is directed toward the Red Sox, but man I gotta admire Epstein's honesty. I would have keeled over from shock if we had ever heard anything like this come out of O'Brien's mouth.

[adampad]

WMP had 1438 ML ab's and Dunn only 1208.

Interesting. However, WMP never even had AAA experience before he was called up. But the fact remains, WMP wasn't ready for the majors when he came. Dunn was.

[redsmetz]

Interesting. However, WMP never even had AAA experience before he was called up. But the fact remains, WMP wasn't ready for the majors when he came. Dunn was.

This has been a longstanding problem with WMP given the structure of his contract when we got him from the Yankees. The first three years he was here, he should have been in the minors. Theo Epstein mentions that in his comments which I posted earlier.

[sdwagers]

Wily Mo could be the next Sammy Sosa or Jesse Barfield.

I suspect Jesse Barfield and think Krivsky got the better deal.

Arroyo will throw 200 innings alongside Claussen, and Harang. That would be almost 40% of the load and I feel better about this rototation than years past.

Good trade. :thumbup:

[Reds Fanatic]

This is Sports Illustrated's analysis of the trade:


This is the type of trade the Reds should have made two years ago -- swap a bat for a decent arm. The Reds had only two starters with a pulse -- Aaron Harang and Brandon Claussen -- before making this deal. Now they have three. On the downside, Arroyo is a flyball pitcher going to a homer-happy park, so you might want to keep him off your fantasy team because his ERA will take a hit. Pena may very well have become an All-Star if not for the way the Reds mangled his development. Instead he is just a very good platoon player -- his three-year averages against southpaws are .276-.347-.536. The Red Sox will be thrilled if they get that from him.

[dougdirt]

Career for Arroyo
776 Groundball Outs
792 Flyball Outs

essentially 50/50

Yeah, but look at his ground outs to air outs the last two seasons. When he was a starter all year long. He pitched 383 innings the last two seasons as a starter.

GO-411
AO-480

[minus5]

:

I think Wily's contract is what mangled his development.

[Heath]

Okay, I'm a newbie here - what is PECOTA?

joe

That's the place where you get your pets and spayed neutered. That's what Bob Barker told me.

[lollipopcurve]

I think Wily's contract is what mangled his development.

For the most part, this is true. There were times he should have played more, in my opinion, but for the most part it was his contract. It's a default setting for know-nothing national writers to c**p on the Reds. They're like a little pack of Beavis and Buttheads snickering under their pubic moustaches.

[Highlifeman21]

Just a view of where I am in my mind at this point....

We had good offense, and bad pitching. Now, we trade the good offense (Casey, Pena, who's next?) and sign a bunch of "veterans".

Two of the most loved players in Cincy were traded for mediocre pitchers.

One thing I have learned (as I sit here and watch Reitsma pitch for the Braves) is that if I'm going to be a lifetime Reds fan, I might as well get used to mediocrity for a while. I just hope we can make the playoffs before I'm too old to go. I'm 21, by the way. :P



This is my point excactly


Casey and Pena = good offense is an extreme stretch of the definition of good offense. Overrated and overpaid for Casey is definitely accurate. Burden of a contract (the one he signed with the Yankees) and unproven definitely is Pena. Next thing you know, you'll tell us Casey and Pena were great defensively...

Last time I checked, Williams and Arroyo haven't pitched 1 inning of baseball that matters for the Reds, so it's ridiculously premature as well as unfair to label them mediocre.

Time to go out and buy a #61 Reds jersey now!

[Redmachine2003]

But isn't Boston a Homer happy field too?????

[Cyclone792]

But isn't Boston a Homer happy field too?????

2005 Fenway Park Effects:

Runs: 115

Overall BA: 109
Overall HR: 99

BA RHB: 105
BA LHB: 114

HR RHB: 105
HR LHB: 92

For overall HR, the park is neutral. For RHB and HR, the park favors hitters slightly.

[TeamBoone]

There is a difference between pitching and quality pitching. Arroyo is the former.

It isnt about Pena for me, its about the return.

Isn't Arroyo better than 3 or 4 starters the Reds alrady have? How can he possibly be worse?

During the game today, they said he's a groundball pitcher. I haven't looked at the stats, so I'm taking them at their word (probably not a good thing to do though). Marty also said AD would stay in left field... don't know if Marty knows that for sure or if he was just talking. He often assumes more than he actually knows.

I love WMP and hate to see him go, but I'm glad they chose to keep Austin.

IMHO, Arroyo has got to be better than some of the slop that's already in the Reds' rotation.

[TeamBoone]

Pena may very well have become an All-Star if not for the way the Reds mangled his development. Instead he is just a very good platoon player -- his three-year averages against southpaws are .276-.347-.536.

The Reds mangled his development?

I'd say the Reds' hands were pretty much tied. Whomever wrote his contract mangled his development. I'm wondering if WMP even realized at the time what a disservice his agent/team was doing him.

[ochre]

And WMP version of the minors was THE SHOW.
Dunn's first minor league season -- 1998
Pena's first minor league season -- 1999
Dunn's call up to the majors -- 2001
Pena's call up to the majors -- 2002

What was your point again?

[corkedbat]

No, as has been explained in this thread, and the other one ( I got it wrong initially, too), he can't request a trade since he wasn't FA eligible before signing that contract. He's here all 3 years unless we trade him.

Thanks. Must've missed it. I've been trying to keep up, but they actually expect me to work here today. Cretins. :D

[corkedbat]

wonder if Hidalgo's still out there? :evil:

[TC81190]

Bye, Mr. Next Sammy Sosa. :barf: :rant2: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

We absolutely got raped in this trade, we're stuck with Kearns, and as I've said many many times before, I think Kearns is the bust and Pena is the real thing. I mean, we've all had the reports on Austin's terrible uppercuts he's been taking...ugh I don't get this at all. This sets us back a bit.

[guttle11]

Dunn's first minor league season -- 1998
Pena's first minor league season -- 1999
Dunn's call up to the majors -- 2001
Pena's call up to the majors -- 2002

What was your point again?

Yeah, he was in the minors for three years, but he probably needed 2-3 more. Blame the Yankees for that.

[adampad]

Dunn's first minor league season -- 1998
Pena's first minor league season -- 1999
Dunn's call up to the majors -- 2001
Pena's call up to the majors -- 2002

What was your point again?

I already stated WMP wasn't ready for bigs when he came and Dunn was. At least Dunn got to see AAA pitching before coming up.

[Caveat Emperor]

We absolutely got raped in this trade, we're stuck with Kearns, and as I've said many many times before, I think Kearns is the bust and Pena is the real thing. I mean, we've all had the reports on Austin's terrible uppercuts he's been taking...ugh I don't get this at all. This sets us back a bit.

Just go read Mike Gosling's statline for the spring and think: No matter how much I love Wily Mo Pena, would have been able to stay sane watching this guy pitch every 5th day?

Even if you hate everything else about this deal, at least a Germano/Gosling 5th starter option is now off the table.

[Heath]

Bye, Mr. Next Sammy Sosa. :barf: :rant2: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

We absolutely got raped in this trade, we're stuck with Kearns, and as I've said many many times before, I think Kearns is the bust and Pena is the real thing. I mean, we've all had the reports on Austin's terrible uppercuts he's been taking...ugh I don't get this at all. This sets us back a bit.

Please rephrase the Next Sammy Sosa Line. WMP is all natural.

I still think he's going to get Green Monster Googly Eyes and think he's going to swing for the fences everytime up. I'm guessing 200 k's if he plays all year.

Don't forget, Willy's good for a DL trip now and then.

[TC81190]

Why, just why, couldn't they have traded Kearns? He's the worst of the OFs, including Denorfia, but Boston still would've taken it.

[dougdirt]

caveat emporer, I think I would rather keep Pena and throw Germano out there every 5 days. I mean I have to see Milton every 5 days, and eventually have to see Wilson too....Germano cant be that bad.

[registerthis]

Bye, Mr. Next Sammy Sosa.

Or, perhaps, bye Mr. Next Russel Branyan.

[red-in-la]

In two years when Pena is the MOST feared power hitter in the AL, people will be trying to remember WHO the BoSox traded to get him.

So much for Krivisky......

If this new GM had once ounce more brain, he would have waited 3 months, until WMP had 20 HR's and gotten 2-3 top prospect for him.....if he felt he need to trade him so badly.

The only question here is.....doee Arroyo make the Reds competitive? Clearly, the answer is NOT A CHANCE.

So, between the wounded duck (DanO) and our new GM, the Reds have lost the bats of Sean Casey and WMP in return for one awful pitcher and one who is maybe average.....terrible....just terrible.

All I can say to this is again, rue the day Jimbo was fired AND bring on the Bengals.....the Reds now so clearly remind me of the 1990's Bungals.

[registerthis]

caveat emporer, I think I would rather keep Pena and throw Germano out there every 5 days. I mean I have to see Milton every 5 days, and eventually have to see Wilson too....Germano cant be that bad.

Having Arroyo may also free up Milton to move to the pen if he falls apart as he did last year.

[dougdirt]

registerthis, I hope you are right....but Im just not sure you put 8 million into the bullpen.

[flyer85]

This trade does nothing to position this team for any long term success. It smacks of nothing but panic.

[Jr's Boy]

I'm not all in favor of this deal,however he's an upgrade from the crap we got SP wise.

[registerthis]

The only question here is.....doee Arroyo make the Reds competitive? Clearly, the answer is NOT A CHANCE.

How have you figured this?

Arroyo by *himself* doesn't make the Reds competitive, but then again neither would Pena. it's foolish to use this deal as fodder for why the Reds won't be competitive this year, or in the future. Arroyo is a clear upgrade in the starting rotation, and Pena's value as a powerhouse masher with no plate discipline and even less of a glove was about what we got for him. Maybe Pena can vastly improve, and become that "most feared hitter" you mention. Or, considering the platoon system he's going to have to deal with, maybe he doesn't continue to develop and becomes a Branyan-type player--all power, no eye, and no glove. Krivsky saw a clear opportunity to improve the starting rotation immediately, and he took it. If you read this deal as an example of this team's ineptitude, you are reading entirely too much into it.

[registerthis]

registerthis, I hope you are right....but Im just not sure you put 8 million into the bullpen.

Well, you also don't put an $8 million turn on the mound every fifth day. You play Milton either where he will be most effective, or where he is capable of doing the least amount of damage. If that place is the bulpen, so be it.

[westofyou]

Please rephrase the Next Sammy Sosa Line. WMP is all natural.

More Ruben Sierra than Sammy Sosa

[corkedbat]

Well, you also don't put an $8 million turn on the mound every fifth day. You play Milton either where he will be most effective, or where he is capable of doing the least amount of damage. If that place is the bulpen, so be it.

Haven't you heard? Milton is gonna win 17 or 18 games this year. :D

[dougdirt]

the problem with that idea is the best place for milton is not in cincinnati. its probably not anywhere. he isnt a good pitcher. not for 1 inning out of the pen, not for 6 innings to start a game. he doesnt have good stuff anymore. He will be pitching somewhere on this team though. Odds are it will be at the start of games.

[Betterread]

I am really low after hearing about this trade. Pena or Kearns was the Reds' prime trading chip to improve in the next few years. If all the Reds can get for their best trade commodity is Bronson Arroyo, they are doomed to mediocrity for the next few years. Perhaps I have been in denial, but I wanted to think that if Pena and Kearns stayed healthy and put up a full year's numbers, they could have gotten a legitimate stud pitcher for one of them. Now that hope is gone.

The Reds offense now consists of two real threats (CF, LF), two occasional threats (RF, SS) and four below average space fillers (with only 3B as potentially better).
The Reds rotation is Harang, Arroyo, Claussen, Milton and D.Williams.
The Reds closer is ....who knows?
The Reds offense without Pena and Casey will scare no-one. Reds pitchers can't get any team out consistently. The only question is whether there are teams in even worse shape than the Reds.

[Patrick Bateman]

Why, just why, couldn't they have traded Kearns? He's the worst of the OFs, including Denorfia, but Boston still would've taken it.

How do you know this???????? If Kearns is really this bad why do you think Boston would be so eager to make the trade.

Obviously I like Kearns and I disagree with you, but many others would share my opinion. I think trading Kearns would be a big mistake.

[registerthis]

Obviously I like Kearns and I disagree with you, but many others would share my opinion. I think trading Kearns would be a big mistake.

Seems like the Reds agreed, if you can believe the reports of them refusing to deal kearns to Boston.

[red-in-la]

How have you figured this?

Arroyo by *himself* doesn't make the Reds competitive, but then again neither would Pena. it's foolish to use this deal as fodder for why the Reds won't be competitive this year, or in the future. Arroyo is a clear upgrade in the starting rotation, and Pena's value as a powerhouse masher with no plate discipline and even less of a glove was about what we got for him. Maybe Pena can vastly improve, and become that "most feared hitter" you mention. Or, considering the platoon system he's going to have to deal with, maybe he doesn't continue to develop and becomes a Branyan-type player--all power, no eye, and no glove. Krivsky saw a clear opportunity to improve the starting rotation immediately, and he took it. If you read this deal as an example of this team's ineptitude, you are reading entirely too much into it.

If you are NOT going to compete this year, then why trade a 23 year old with tremendous bat speed and unlimited power for an average, 29 year old pitcher? Had Krivisky trade Pena for a couple of top notch prospects, OK then. And, if you want to get the most you can get for Pena, why not wait until ke kas played everyday for a few months?

His value cannot get lower than 10 AB's in the WBC.

We all talked about trading offense for pitching...nobody disagrees with that....but to trade for the junk they have gotten so far is just making trades to make it look like you are in charge.

Right now, the BEST trade for a pitcher was made using a guy most of you thought was terrible (in Jose Guillen) where the Reds got Harang. At least Harang was going upwards in his development.

WMP is still developing. Had the Reds crummy managers played him more often, he might be farther along. WMP is going to get better the more he plays. If you want to compare him to Russell Branyan, then we have nothing more to talk about.

[Caveat Emperor]

In two years when Pena is the MOST feared power hitter in the AL, people will be trying to remember WHO the BoSox traded to get him.


I appreciate the love of all things Wily Mo...but people need to maintain some perspective.

We're talking about a raw talent here with as much of a chance to regress into any number of 5 tool talents gone awry as he is to develop into this fearsome power hitter that makes mortals tremble in his wake.

Boston is banking that he leans more towards the latter. The Reds are banking that he'll lean more towards the former. That's the way these deals work because nobody knows for sure what development track a player is going to take.

But, to listen to the way everyone is going on about Pena, you'd think the Reds just traded Albert Pujols. Let's just all try to keep a little perspective -- should make for better dialogue.

[red-in-la]

Let's just talk about trading upside and AGE here. In any terms, how does anybody think the Reds got the best of this deal.

[uks2h]

Casey and Pena = good offense is an extreme stretch of the definition of good offense. Overrated and overpaid for Casey is definitely accurate. Burden of a contract (the one he signed with the Yankees) and unproven definitely is Pena. Next thing you know, you'll tell us Casey and Pena were great defensively...

Last time I checked, Williams and Arroyo haven't pitched 1 inning of baseball that matters for the Reds, so it's ridiculously premature as well as unfair to label them mediocre.

Time to go out and buy a #61 Reds jersey now!

Hmm...last time I checked, Pena or Casey haven't played for their respective teams either. Yet you have labeled them as overrated, overpaid, bad defensively, unproven...

[letsgojunior]

I appreciate the love of all things Wily Mo...but people need to maintain some perspective.

We're talking about a raw talent here with as much of a chance to regress into any number of 5 tool talents gone awry as he is to develop into this fearsome power hitter that makes mortals tremble in his wake.

Boston is banking that he leans more towards the latter. The Reds are banking that he'll lean more towards the former. That's the way these deals work because nobody knows for sure what development track a player is going to take.

But, to listen to the way everyone is going on about Pena, you'd think the Reds just traded Albert Pujols. Let's just all try to keep a little perspective -- should make for better dialogue.

:thumbup:

[Rex Argos]

I don't have a problem with this deal. We need pitching, and Boston needs a non-fielding batter. Sure, we're not going to run roughshod over the NL Central with Arroyo at the helm--but we weren't going to get there with Pena, either.

Does the trade make the team better, I say yes.

[TheBurn]

Gammons just said Arroyo is automatically the Reds best pitcher... :dunno:

[oneupper]

Gammons just said Arroyo is automatically the Reds best pitcher... :dunno:

It's the W-L thing...you gotta understand.

[KronoRed]

Gammons just said Arroyo is automatically the Reds best pitcher... :dunno:
He's wrong.

[sdwagers]

Gammons just said Arroyo is automatically the Reds best pitcher... :dunno:


but thats coming from a hometown Boy. He was a Boston beat writer for years...

Harang is our best starter right now. Even MLB.com ranks him just ahead of Bronson.

[Heath]

He's wrong.

No, he's Peter.

You're Krono.

And stop calling me Shirley.

And Peter is wrong. If he did his research (pardon me with the next few seconds, I'm typing in uncontrollable laughter trying to think about Peter Gammons doing actual research) he would remember back in August that he said that Aaron Harang was the best thing in Cincinnati.

What has Harang done in the offseason that would require Peter's tune to change?

Just because you live in Bah-ston doesn't make you the next Bill Monbouquette.

[kyred14]

I don't like this trade. I'm hoping for the best, but this dude is going to give Milton a serious run for his money. Awful.......

[Patrick Bateman]

this dude is going to give Milton a serious run for his money.

Based on what???????????

[Highlifeman21]

Hmm...last time I checked, Pena or Casey haven't played for their respective teams either. Yet you have labeled them as overrated, overpaid, bad defensively, unproven...

Please tell me how/why Sean Casey is worth 7.8 million this year. IIRC, by the end of his contract, he'll be making 9 million per year.


Sean Casey averages 2003 through 2005

Games Runs Hits RBI TB OPS
143 82 172 79 254 .822

Those numbers, a 3 year average, while he's making the money he's making means 2 things: He's not worth the money he's making, which means he's overrated, and overpaid. If you cut his contract in 1/2, then by all means he's neither overrated nor overpaid. But he's not.

Time for you to tell me how Casey and Pena are defensive gems that will make us forget about Keith Hernandez and Roberto Clemente.

Pena has more errors than assists in his defensive career, and sports a robust .973 career Fielding %. Strong.

As for Mr. Casey... don't let his career Fielding % mislead you, as it doesn't take into consideration factor such as balls he can't get to since he's probably one of the slowest human beings in the world. His lack of speed and reflexes makes him the perfect candidate as a DH, but for some unknown reason he continues to rot at 1B.

Pena and Casey = defensive liabilities.

It's very fair to label Pena as "unproven" because he has a whopping 302 games in 4 years. I'm not sure why you'd debate this. Do you feel we know the real WMP? If that's the case, then by all means, I'd trade WMP for Arroyo once on monday, once on wednesday, once on friday and twice on sunday!

Please show me how I'm wrong with my labels.

[Patrick Bateman]

Please tell me how/why Sean Casey is worth 7.8 million this year. IIRC, by the end of his contract, he'll be making 9 million per year.


Sean Casey averages 2003 through 2005

Games Runs Hits RBI TB OPS
143 82 172 79 254 .822

Those numbers, a 3 year average, while he's making the money he's making means 2 things: He's not worth the money he's making, which means he's overrated, and overpaid. If you cut his contract in 1/2, then by all means he's neither overrated nor overpaid. But he's not.

Time for you to tell me how Casey and Pena are defensive gems that will make us forget about Keith Hernandez and Roberto Clemente.

Pena has more errors than assists in his defensive career, and sports a robust .973 career Fielding %. Strong.

As for Mr. Casey... don't let his career Fielding % mislead you, as it doesn't take into consideration factor such as balls he can't get to since he's probably one of the slowest human beings in the world. His lack of speed and reflexes makes him the perfect candidate as a DH, but for some unknown reason he continues to rot at 1B.

Pena and Casey = defensive liabilities.

It's very fair to label Pena as "unproven" because he has a whopping 302 games in 4 years. I'm not sure why you'd debate this. Do you feel we know the real WMP? If that's the case, then by all means, I'd trade WMP for Arroyo once on monday, once on wednesday, once on friday and twice on sunday!

Please show me how I'm wrong with my labels.

I don't thimk he's really questioning your labels are right or wrong, but the fact that you seem it fit to rate Casey and Pena, but not Williams and Bronson.

[dman]

Ever wakeup and wonder why you had to be a Reds fan? I do...a lot. What the heck did Reds fan do to deserve getting all these horrible GM's? It just never ends.

Offer Antonetti like 5 million a year to come here.
OK, So you don't like the trade. Now, how many posts are you going to make hammering in the same point?

Even if the trade blows chunks, I'll still give Krivsky an "A" for having the stones enough to make the trade.

Personally, I saw Pena as somewhat of a liability in spite of his power numbers. We get people on this board that harp about Dunn's strikeout numbers, had Pena been in everyday Dunn would never be able to catch those numbers. Plus Pena was a liability in the field.

[Highlifeman21]

I don't thimk he's really questioning your labels are right or wrong, but the fact that you seem it fit to rate Casey and Pena, but not Williams and Bronson.


Personally, I like Arroyo, and I think he'll make a great #2 pitcher for us in 2006, but I'll be the first to admit I was wrong if he goes Milton on us and tries to lead the world in losses.

As for Williams, he's a lefty, so fortunately or unfortunately he'll get more of a benefit of a doubt. I mean in all honesty, can he really pitch worse than Milton or a rehabbed Wilson? Double digit wins for a horrible Pirates team last year is a step in the right direction for me.

Bottomline, we need pitching, and both Williams and Arroyo pitch, last time I checked.

We were a 70 to 75 win team before the WMP/Arroyo deal, now hopefully we can be a 77 to 81 win team. Give the new regime another year of moving and shaking, and hopefully by 2007 we can be a consistent above .500 team.

Plus, I'm rating what's left town and what's happened here, I have no idea what Casey and Pena will do for Pittsburgh and Boston respectively, just like no one knows quite yet how Arroyo and Williams will do for our Reds.

[dougdirt]

dman, you can give someone all the A's you want for having stones to make a trade. I want someone who has the brains to make the right decision involving a trade. I dont think this was the right decision. I give it a D-.

[uks2h]

I don't thimk he's really questioning your labels are right or wrong, but the fact that you seem it fit to rate Casey and Pena, but not Williams and Bronson.

Thanks, Kearnsy. Exactly my point.

[George Foster]

Offense will score 100-150 less runs this year. Pitching will not improve.

Hey jmmclain, fire up that Fire Krivsky website!


Bull Crap!!!! Has there ever been a stretch that WMP has played 40 games in a row without an phantom injury? This is a good trade. WMP will never live up to his potential. Dunn has chunks in his stool that are tougher than WMP! Hey I just thought of a new signature for my posts!!!

[buckshotrod]

What the hell, I might as well chime in.

Wily Mo....if you all remember last year when the kid was playing full time he was awesome..then he got hurt and into somewhat of a spiral he went. If this guy plays regular, he plays very well and only gets better. If platooned..he will be less than average. Just my opinion.

Bronson..for some sick reason I have always liked this guy but not so sure about him in GAB. Gives up dingers and many extra base hits that could turn into more. I do think he is capable and don't think he will be another Uncle Milty.

Wayne has taken a chance and he will either float or sink with it. I am going to be optimistic and say it is an upgrade...I hope.

I just can't help thinking how much we might have got out of Pena after he played regular for 1 full year. I have a lot of faith in this guy...maybe more so than Kearnsy. Kearns just has never been the same since Fat Ray sat on him right in front of my face down in Atlanta. I could have cried cause I like him so much.

Ain't baseball great!!!!!!

[Heath]

Let's just talk about trading upside and AGE here. In any terms, how does anybody think the Reds got the best of this deal.


Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor
I appreciate the love of all things Wily Mo...but people need to maintain some perspective.

We're talking about a raw talent here with as much of a chance to regress into any number of 5 tool talents gone awry as he is to develop into this fearsome power hitter that makes mortals tremble in his wake.

Boston is banking that he leans more towards the latter. The Reds are banking that he'll lean more towards the former. That's the way these deals work because nobody knows for sure what development track a player is going to take.

But, to listen to the way everyone is going on about Pena, you'd think the Reds just traded Albert Pujols. Let's just all try to keep a little perspective -- should make for better dialogue.

There's one. And I'm almost 2.

[Falls City Beer]

Dunn has chunks in his stool that are tougher than WMP!

Dude, that is funny. :thumbup:

Stool has to be one of the greatest words in the English language.

[flyer85]

Stool has to be one of the greatest words in the English language.

http://www.oakinheritance.com/images/largepics/stool.jpg

[Heath]

http://www.oakinheritance.com/images/largepics/stool.jpg

flyer, after your day here today, I was sincerely afraid to look at this picture.

[westofyou]

Some have their own stool

http://freaks.monstrous.com/pictures/frank_lantini.jpg

[KronoRed]

Just a brown stool


;)

[Patrick Bateman]

Some have their own stool

http://freaks.monstrous.com/pictures/frank_lantini.jpg

I don't even want to know how you found that picture.

[westofyou]

I don't even want to know how you found that picture.
http://freaks.monstrous.com/

[TeamBoone]

Why, just why, couldn't they have traded Kearns? He's the worst of the OFs, including Denorfia.

Do you seriously believe that?

[blumj]

I don't like this trade. I'm hoping for the best, but this dude is going to give Milton a serious run for his money. Awful.......
Slight overreaction maybe? It's not like he's been pitching in some great pitcher's park against crappy lineups with a great defense behind him for the last 2 years.

[buckshotrod]

TeamBoone...I know you weren't posting to me but I did say I would have preferred Kearns trading over Pena..not because I think Kearns stinks, I just can't help think there is something lingering wrong with him since Fat Ray sat on him. He has not done crap since. Could he be shy from being HBP? I hope I am very wrong as like Austin a lot..but maybe you have some insight?

[HeCanSingToo]

I need to defend Arroyo a little bit. I'm a Sox fan and have seen all of his starts. For someone who was plucked out of the scrap heap of Pittsburgh, he's developed into a solid middle of the rotation starter. I'd say he he has a above average breaking ball, average fastball, and a below average change. He has a funky, deceptive delivery and normally, good control. He is durable, has a rubber arm, and led the Sox in quality starts last year (though the Sox pitching sucked in general all year) He is cost controlled for the next three years and is a good value at his price.

For the negatives, he's 29 and doesnt have the stuff to be an ace. Lefties have crushed him lately. His delivery and breaking ball dont help against lefties, and he didnt have the confidence/results to throw the change/ inside fastball against them. I think a good part of his declining k-rate was teams getting a better scouting report and stacking the lineup with lefties against him. He needs a lefty out pitch if his changeup isnt going to improve.

I dont know a hell of a lot about Wily Mo Pena other than clips of 500ft home runs and seeing him butcher a flyball into a homerun at Fenway last year, but from a Sox stand point, they would have gladly dumped Wells and Clement before Arroyo if they could have gotten value for them.

[Heath]

I need to defend Arroyo a little bit. I'm a Sox fan and have seen all of his starts. For someone who was plucked out of the scrap heap of Pittsburgh, he's developed into a solid middle of the rotation starter. I'd say he he has a above average breaking ball, average fastball, and a below average change. He has a funky, deceptive delivery and normally, good control. He is durable, has a rubber arm, and led the Sox in quality starts last year (though the Sox pitching sucked in general all year) He is cost controlled for the next three years and is a good value at his price.

For the negatives, he's 29 and doesnt have the stuff to be an ace. Lefties have crushed him lately. His delivery and breaking ball dont help against lefties, and he didnt have the confidence/results to throw the change/ inside fastball against them. I think a good part of his declining k-rate was teams getting a better scouting report and stacking the lineup with lefties against him. He needs a lefty out pitch if his changeup isnt going to improve.

I dont know a hell of a lot about Wily Mo Pena other than clips of 500ft home runs and seeing him butcher a flyball into a homerun at Fenway last year, but from a Sox stand point, they would have gladly dumped Wells and Clement before Arroyo if they could have gotten value for them.

Here's a question -

Could pitching in a less of a pressure cooker like Cincinnati give Arroyo a little more confidence in his stuff and allow him to "let-loose"?

Boston isn't a place to pitch if you can't handle the steam.

[HeCanSingToo]

Here's a question -

Could pitching in a less of a pressure cooker like Cincinnati give Arroyo a little more confidence in his stuff and allow him to "let-loose"?

Boston isn't a place to pitch if you can't handle the steam.

Well his nickname on SOSH is Saturn Balls. He came up big in the playoffs and I dont think mental toughness is an issue. IMO, he just needs an out pitch against lefties if he doesnt trust his change. Regardless, I think he'll be solid. I expect he'll be more effective his 1st time around the NL.

Tony Womack? Who thought that was a good idea? Tony Graffanino needs a home.

Edit: Sorry for the Womack comment, didnt realize it was a sore subject

[Gainesville Red]

Edit: Sorry for the Womack comment, didnt realize it was a sore subject

I don't think of it as a sore subject, I think the majority of the board feels about the same way you do.

[Falls City Beer]

Well his nickname on SOSH is Saturn Balls. He came up big in the playoffs and I dont think mental toughness is an issue. IMO, he just needs an out pitch against lefties if he doesnt trust his change. Regardless, I think he'll be solid. I expect he'll be more effective his 1st time around the NL.

Tony Womack? Who thought that was a good idea? Tony Graffanino needs a home.

Edit: Sorry for the Womack comment, didnt realize it was a sore subject

Thanks for the input, HCST.

[blumj]

Thanks for the input, HCST.

Just to add, that Saturn Balls nickname came directly from Schilling, right before Bronson's '04 ALDS start against the Angels. He pitched a hell of a game against them, too.

[vaticanplum]

Oh my Lord, it is freaking crazy in here. You'd seriously think we just traded Dunn, FeLo, and Harang for Ryan Klesko. We need some baseball games to distract us.

Anywho, I consulted my Boston fan friend (I keep one on staff purely for reasons such as this one) and he actually feels pretty much the same way that I do: that it's a rather indifferent trade right now. Arroyo will never be a #1 starter, but while the potential is greater with Pena, there are also more question marks. Could work out great for one or both teams; probably will be disastrous for neither. He also, despite the splits that somebody posted before, thinks of Arroyo as mainly a fly ball pitcher which could be harmful in GABP, but he said that the drop in his strikeouts last year was due to a loss of control which he expects he'll regain under less pressure. I said this already in small form today, but Arroyo was in an extremely tough situation last year. the Red Sox were coming off their World Championship and right away lost Martinez to the Mets and Schilling to injury. He was really the young, inexperienced pitcher in that rotation last year, and I think he probably learned a lot. He's always been healthy, and that's big in my book.

I feel like a broken record, but I do think this is a good step and fair for both teams. We need pitching and he is a good pitcher. And Boston is going to flip for a team with guys named Manny and Wily Mo there. I predict t-shirts.

When I step back and look at this, I still can't believe that Arroyo, of all people, is a Red. I want him to pitch well, but he has long been such a joke in my world...I have had, no kidding, an article from the New York times posted on my fridge for a year now. It details Arroyo's pursuits as a singer covering the Goo Goo Dolls, the Stone Temple Pilots, and Creed. He has an albume called "Believe" or "Last Man Home" or "Life on a Diamond" or something equally ridiculous, I can't remember. The particularly good bits of the article are actually highlighted. If any of you hear of him performing in Cincinnati, you have to let me know. I will be there with tomatoes. Not really. Maybe.

edit: forgot to mention, token Boston friend says that contrary to some of what has been conveyed on message boards, his impression is that Boston is very upset to be seeing Arroyo go.

[Section106Blue]

I haven't read all the posts, but it generally seems that most people realize we needed the pitching, but they don't like giving up Wily Mo's potential. I'm not sure how I feel, but how many feel that Wily Mo is going to develop into the the next Dunn like player, and how many think he will bust?

Also, the one of the first things I thought of in considering the trade was who was better to keep, Kearns of Wily Mo? They both seem to be on the verge of making it or not, with Kearns having the obvious edge in defensive skills.

[HeCanSingToo]

Thanks all.

How about Wily Mo? Any insight beyond the obvious?

From what I've read, tremendous power, hideous k-rate & OBP, great arm, decent speed but has horrible reads, instincts defensively. Why hasnt he improved? He's young but has a lot of MLB service time. Was he rushed, not receptive to coaching?

[blumj]

Bronson's album is "Covering the Bases". He can actually sing, and he will take opportunities to do so live or on tv if he's given them. He's really a very easy guy to like.

[TC81190]

Was he rushed

ABSOLUTELY 100% POSITIVELY YES

[KYRedsFan]

Gut reaction here is this is a bad bad deal. Arroyo hardly seems close to turning a corner and jumping to a top of the rotation starter at 29. WMP has shown fairly nice development and flashes of greatness. We seem to be on the short side of this trade in the present, and unfortunatley the potential is only for that to get worse. Upside is the commodity I think you have to look at in this trade, and that puts us on the short end big time.

[vaticanplum]

Bronson's album is "Covering the Bases". He can actually sing, and he will take opportunities to do so live or on tv if he's given them. He's really a very easy guy to like.

Ahhh that's it! Covering the Bases!!

I don't mean to be harsh and don't take what I say too seriously; I just generally don't like Red sox or people who cover Creed on principle. It's not Arroyo's fault. And I will certainly be rooting for him.

[Caveat Emperor]

Bronson's album is "Covering the Bases". He can actually sing, and he will take opportunities to do so live or on tv if he's given them. He's really a very easy guy to like.

Arroyo also did backing vocals on the single "Tessie" off the last Dropkick Murphys album.

[Nugget]

Thanks all.

How about Wily Mo? Any insight beyond the obvious?

From what I've read, tremendous power, hideous k-rate & OBP, great arm, decent speed but has horrible reads, instincts defensively. Why hasnt he improved? He's young but has a lot of MLB service time. Was he rushed, not receptive to coaching?

He was rushed but that being said he has not really improved his defence in the time he has been in the big leagues. In fact the more he plays the more inept he looks. His offense has steadily improved but in now way would you call it a meteoric rise. Essentially he could turn out to be a great basher or a Dave Kingman.

[WMR]

does ne1 know if erroyo can lay down a bunt good because hes coming to the nl now we dont play that other stuff hes going to need to lay down some bunts

hjopefully better than ortiz!!!

[vaticanplum]

does ne1 know if erroyo can lay down a bunt good because hes coming to the nl now we dont play that other stuff hes going to need to lay down some bunts

hjopefully better than ortiz!!!

Yeah Arroyo's not a really big guy, I can definitely smell scrappy potential.

[Falls City Beer]

Thanks all.

How about Wily Mo? Any insight beyond the obvious?

From what I've read, tremendous power, hideous k-rate & OBP, great arm, decent speed but has horrible reads, instincts defensively. Why hasnt he improved? He's young but has a lot of MLB service time. Was he rushed, not receptive to coaching?

He's brutal on defense, but that's not really much of a problem, honestly. I would play him in center in Fenway, if I could help it.

My biggest gripe with Pena is that he slides into horrific habits VERY quickly. Maybe age cures those tics, I don't know--but when the wheels come off for the guy, they sail into the stands. For all the talk of the guy's "coachability" and "work habits," I get the sense that not very much sinks in with him. He reaches a point when he's un-walkable because he fears the curve or the offspeed, so he swings at EVERYTHING.

But this is an observation from a guy who'd rather have patience at the plate develop first with physical power developing later than the reverse. So that's my bias.

[WMR]

Yeah Arroyo's not a really big guy, I can definitely smell scrappy potential.

well weve got some guys on the team this year who know how to get a bunt down maybe they should have womack or auriolia do some drills with the pitchers bc i know that jerry wants production out of that 9spot when he needs it!!!

[Nugget]

Judging by the simple batting stats Arroyo could be passable in the NL. Don't forget he came up through Pittsburgh so he has played NL, not as if he is a total novice at batting.

[mound_patrol]

I really like this move by the Reds. Arroyo gives us 3 quality arms in our rotation. Nothing special but atleast they can get some guys out. I definitly see this move helping the Reds in the future. 2006 is a lost cause already, but give krivsky all of next years offseason to bring in a good pitcher and possibly add Bailey and we actually will have a rotation worth competing with. This team needs quality arms and that's what arroyo is at a very reasonable price. If Arroyo can give the reds offense 20 quality starts then that'll equal about 15 wins for the Reds. Nothing flashy, but i'll take it.

But I definitly think the Reds need to go young this year. Denorfia needs to start in the outfield 2 out of every 3 days with Freel taking the other day. Begiolla (sp) should start every 2 out of 3 days with Freel taking that extra day, and Ede needs to start 150+ games this year. We're going to suck so lets suck while getting some young guys experiance

[wheels]

Boston fans.....

Get ready for an adventure.

He's strong, he's frustrating, he's big, and he's funny.

Should make for a hit in Beantown.

[pedro]

I really like this move by the Reds. Arroyo gives us 3 quality arms in our rotation. Nothing special but atleast they can get some guys out. I definitly see this move helping the Reds in the future. 2006 is a lost cause already, but give krivsky all of next years offseason to bring in a good pitcher and possibly add Bailey and we actually will have a rotation worth competing with. This team needs quality arms and that's what arroyo is at a very reasonable price. If Arroyo can give the reds offense 20 quality starts then that'll equal about 15 wins for the Reds. Nothing flashy, but i'll take it.

But I definitly think the Reds need to go young this year. Denorfia needs to start in the outfield 2 out of every 3 days with Freel taking the other day. Begiolla (sp) should start every 2 out of 3 days with Freel taking that extra day, and Ede needs to start 150+ games this year. We're going to suck so lets suck while getting some young guys experiance

I'd be happy if Denofria got some playing time, but bergolla can't hit and has no business on a major league roster.

[mound_patrol]

Pedro, you're probably right, but if we are going to lose then lets lose young. If we do win in the future it will be without aurillia and womack. So why play them now? Just my opinion. Bergolla was the best minor league infielder I could think of worth giving a shot.

[KronoRed]

but bergolla can't hit and has no business on a major league roster.
Neither can or does Womack :devil:

[Falls City Beer]

Neither can or does Womack :devil:

No, but Womack's mustache does. :alien:

[pedro]

Pedro, you're probably right, but if we are going to lose then lets lose young. If we do win in the future it will be without aurillia and womack. So why play them now? Just my opinion. Bergolla was the best minor league infielder I could think of worth giving a shot.

I'd rather see Freel in there myself.

Denofria has more upside than Bergolla IMO. Give him the AB's.

[mound_patrol]

Bergolla wouldn't be taking at bats away from denorfia.

All I am saying is let's give some guys a shot that are younger. I can only take so much of womack and aurillia, and want to get guys ready for the years to come.

[pedro]

Bergolla wouldn't be taking at bats away from denorfia.

All I am saying is let's give some guys a shot that are younger. I can only take so much of womack and aurillia, and want to get guys ready for the years to come.

what about Freel? certainly he deserves the AB's more than Bergolla.

Check out Bergolla's Minor League numbers. Aside from BA, they are really pretty sad.

[mound_patrol]

Freel is definitly a guy that needs to get atbats, but I don't see him as an everyday 2B. I like having Freel being available to play anywhere. I think that makes him all the more valuable to the team.

[Heath]

Freel is definitly a guy that needs to get atbats, but I don't see him as an everyday 2B. I like having Freel being available to play anywhere. I think that makes him all the more valuable to the team.

Welcome to the board, Mgr. Narron.

[Wheelhouse]

My impression: I hate trading Wily Mo, but the fact is, if Krivsky is the GM, the Reds will be more a defense and pitching oriented team. The Reds still have plenty of power, and their pitching and defense is improved. Wily may go on to hit many home runs, but he was never going to be top of the line defensively ( or baserunning). We are seeing the cast of the new Reds: more solid pitching, and more defense. It stings, but I like Krivsky and I have to go for this. For now...

[5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM]

I know im gonna get it for this, but do you all really think we are that far from A winner. We played the second half of the year at .500, led the nl in runs, added two good pitchers to replace Ortiz 5.36, and Hudson 6.38. The Cubs are hurtin, the cardinals havn't done much in the way of improving, the pirates and Brewers still have a way to go in my eyes and last but not least it looks like the Rocket has left the Astros. So maybe im nuts but I dont think it's time to shuffle in the youngins quite yet. Give em a chance to prove they are as bad as you think. And as for what I think about the Pena trade, we scored a lot of runs when he was out of the line-up last year we can do it again this year, only this time Ortiz and Hudson won't be around to keep the other team in it.

[savafan]

Where has anyone from the Reds said that Tony Womack will be the everyday second baseman?

I've always liked Bronson Arroyo, and have clamored for the Reds to get him for two years now. I've seen him pitch on TV about 8 times, and every game I've seen him pitch in he's been dominant.

Also, how many other Cincinnati Reds have a rock album? http://www.artistdirect.com/nad/store/artist/album/0,,3322067,00.html

If you still don't like the deal, check out this photo. That is Pile O'Cash sitting on Arroyo's lap.
http://cache.deadspin.com/sports/bronsonarroyowithlady.jpg


One more thing. The last Cincinnati Red first baseman to hit 30 or more homeruns was Lee May in 1971.

[Gainesville Red]

Ahh yes, the fringe benefits that come with being a professional athlete. Or a rock star. Or both.

[fisch11]

Glad to see that we are making more legitimate moves for pitching. I will just be sad to see Wily Mo turn into what I think he is going to be, in the next Manny Ramirez.

[savafan]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/BatterSplits.py?StartDate=09%2F10%2F2002&EndDate=09%2F28%2F2005&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=344&BatterType=1

In 438 home at bats and 392 road at bats, for his career, Wily Mo has a:

home OPS of .815
road OPS of .741
Fenway Park OPS of .282

[savafan]

Also, for his career,

against lefthanders, Pena has an OPS of .883
against righthanders, an OPS of .733

It is possible that we seriously overrate Wily Mo Pena a bit here at Redszone.

[savafan]

I'd also like to point out Arroyo's numbers against righthanders.

.228 avg. against

.647 OPS against

694 at bats, 12 homeruns


Wily Mo sure is injury prone.

http://www.rototimes.com/index.php?sport=bsball&type=transandnotes2005&name=3414

Dec. 6 Wily Mo Pena has a chance to be an everyday player for the Reds next season now that the team has traded Sean Casey. The deal should allow Adam Dunn to move to first base, clearing a corner outfield spot for Pena.

Sep. 29 The hyperextended lower back Wily Mo Pena sustained during yesterday's game likely will keep him from playing any more games this season, according to the Cincinnati Post. "I think he's OK," said Reds manager Jerry Narron. "I'm sure he's going to be sore for a couple days. I'm just thankful there isn't anything structurally wrong."

Sep. 28 Wily Mo Pena was injured in the fourth inning Wednesday night when he crashed into the wall with his head and left shoulder while diving for a ball, according to the AP. Pena remained on the ground for about 5 minutes while Reds trainers worked on him. He stood up and then was taken off the field on a cart. X-rays were negative, and Pena was diagnosed with a hyperextended lower back and will be re-evaluated on Thursday.

Aug. 15 Wily Mo Pena, who hasn't played since spraining his wrist last Wednesday, was available to pinch hit Monday, according to the AP. Manager Jerry Narron expects him to be able to start Wednesday.

Aug. 15 The Cincinnati Post reports that Wily Mo Pena likely will remain sidelined a couple of more days by his troublesome sprained left wrist. “He said he wasn't quite 100 percent, he can still feel it a little bit," said manager Jerry Narron. "So we'll probably wait until (facing Giants lefty Noah) Lowry on Wednesday (to start Pena). Hopefully, he'll be ready by then."

Aug. 13 Wily Mo Pena will take batting practice before today's game to determine whether he's ready to return from his sprained wrist, according to the Cincinnati Post.

Aug. 12 Wily Mo Pena had his wrist examined in Cincinnati yesterday and was diagnosed with a sprain, according to the Cincinnati Post. However, he's expected to be available this weekend.

Aug. 11 The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that Wily Mo Pena will travel back to Cincinnati today to have his sore wrist examined after leaving last night's game due to the injury. "The doctors are just going to check it out, because I think it's the same thing I did last year," Pena said. "It doesn't hurt bad like last year, but I can feel it."

Aug. 11 Wily Mo Pena is day-to-day after hurting his left wrist on a check-swing in the sixth inning of Wednesday's game, according to the Reds' official web site.

June 13 The Cincinnati Post reports that Wily Mo Pena has been cleared to return to the starting lineup today. He has been nursing a sore knee.

June 12 Wily Mo Pena will become the everyday right fielder for the Reds now that Austin Kearns has been sent to the minors. However, Pena was not in the starting lineup on Sunday, as he's still nursing a sore knee. Pena is hitting .318 with eight homers in just 66 at-bats this season.

June 11 Wily Mo Pena was out of the starting lineup Saturday with a sore knee, according to the AP. Jacob Cruz started in right field in place of Pena and went 0-for-3 with a run scored.

June 7 In his first game since coming off the disabled list, Wily Mo Pena went 1-for-4 with a RBI double. Pena batted fifth and started in right field.
June 7 The Reds activated Wily Mo Pena from the 15-day DL on Tuesday, according to the AP. He has been sidelined by a strained left thigh since May 9.

June 4 Wily Mo Pena expects to complete his rehab assignment on Monday, according to the AP. Pena has been out with a strained left quadriceps muscle. He is hitting .385 with one home run and four RBI with the Louisville Bats. "The first game I played I was worried and a little scared to put weight on my leg, but now it feels 100 percent," Pena said Saturday.

June 4 Wily Mo Pena had a setback in the third game of his rehab assignment at Louisville on Friday when he strained his left quad muscle, according to the AP.

June 1 The Reds still are not sure when Wily Mo Pena will return from his strained left quadriceps, but it likely won't be this week, according to the Cincinnati Post. He began a rehab assignment on Monday but has yet to play a full nine innings, something he may do today.

May 29 Recovering from a strained left quadriceps, Wily Mo Pena is slated to begin a rehab assignment on Monday, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer. It's unclear when he will be activated from the disabled list.

May 27 Wily Mo Pena reported no problems with his strained left quadriceps after running the bases yesterday, according to the Cincinnati Post. He'll be re-evaluated today.

May 26 Wily Mo Pena is close to being activated from the DL, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer. Pena has been out almost a month with strained left quadriceps, so he'll get a few days' worth of at-bats during a rehab assignment Triple-A Louisville before he's activated.

May 20 The Reds have yet to decide whether Wily Mo Pena will come off the disabled list today, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer. He's been out with a strained left quadriceps.

May 17 The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that Wily Mo Pena ran and did some work on the field Monday, and he reported no pain in his strained left quadriceps. He could come off the DL on Friday.

May 10 Wily Mo Pena will likely be activated from the DL on May 20, according to the Cinncinnati Enquirer.

May 9 The Reds placed Wily Mo Pena on the 15-day disabled list Monday with a strained left quadriceps, according to the AP. The move was retroactive to May 3. Pena was hitting .313 with six home runs in 48 at-bats this season.

May 9 Wily Mo Pena is still sidelined with a strained right thigh, but he was able to run on a treadmill on Sunday, according to the AP.

May 5 The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that Wily Mo Pena is back to being available for pinch-hitting only because of his sore left quadriceps. Pena otherwise would have started Wednesday against lefty Mark Mulder.

May 4 Wily Mo Pena was out of the lineup again on Wednesday because of his sore left thigh, according to the AP.

May 3 Wily Mo Pena was back in the starting lineup for the Cards on Monday for the first time since straining his left thigh on April 23.

May 2 Even though Wily Mo Pena was cleared to return from his strained quadriceps, Reds manager Dave Miley held the hitter out of Sunday's lineup, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer. "Once they're all right, I usually give them one more day to make sure," Miley said. "But he's all right to go out and play in the field."

April 30 Wily Mo Pena hopes to return to the Reds' starting lineup Sunday after being hobbled by a left quadriceps injury since April 23, according to the AP.

April 26 Wily Mo Pena was out of the lineup for the second straight day on Monday since leaving Saturday's game with tightness in his left quadriceps, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer. "He feels a lot better," Reds trainer Mark Mann said. "The tightness isn't as prominent."

April 24 Reds manager Dave Miley said that Wily Mo Pena was available to pinch-hit on Sunday, according to the AP. Pena left Saturday's game with a tight quadriceps.

April 24 The Reds believe that the stiff quadriceps that forced Wily Mo Pena from last night's game may not be serious, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer. "He said he had stiffness, almost like cramps," trainer Mark Mann said. "He also complained of stiffness in his hip flexor. That led us to believe it might be a hydration issue." He'll be re-evaluated today.

April 23 Wily Mo Pena left Saturday's game in the second inning with stiffness in his left quadriceps muscle, according to the AP.

April 1 Although Wily Mo Pena hasn't played since Saturday due to a stiff back, he took batting practice yesterday and felt fine, according to the Cincinnati Post. "We expect him to be available for (today's) game in Memphis," trainer Mark Mann said.

Mar. 22 The Reds have sent scouts to the Nationals spring camp to see if there is someone they like enough to acquire in exchange for Wily Mo Pena, according to the Washington Post. The Nationals have been scouting Pena all spring.

[Casey_21]

Wow... This is the best news I have heard all year!! I cant understand why so many people are whining, saying we got screwed. What kind of pitcher did you expect for him?!?!? Wily Mo has not proved himself yet, cant catch, or hit breaking pitches, strikes out intirely too much.. He is nothing but a 'We have yet to see his fullest potential' guy. If you ask me, the Red Sox are taking a huge chance with him. I am honestly surprised we got a below average SP for him, I was thinking along the lines of RP. Everyone should be happy.

[Casey_21]

Also, for his career,

against lefthanders, Pena has an OPS of .883
against righthanders, an OPS of .733

It is possible that we seriously overrate Wily Mo Pena a bit here at Redszone.

WAYYYYYYYYYYYY too much. :help:

[elfmanvt07]

Wow... This is the best news I have heard all year!! I cant understand why so many people are whining, saying we got screwed. What kind of pitcher did you expect for him?!?!? Wily Mo has not proved himself yet, cant catch, or hit breaking pitches, strikes out intirely too much.. He is nothing but a 'We have yet to see his fullest potential' guy. If you ask me, the Red Sox are taking a huge chance with him. I am honestly surprised we got a below average SP for him, I was thinking along the lines of RP. Everyone should be happy.

I think you have the right idea. I've seen several Sox message boards that are in civil disorder over this trade. Riots, fires, cats and dogs sleeping together, mass histeria.

[TeamSelig]

A closer? Where are you getting that from?

Because he has been demoted to bullpen in the past (not really sure but I thought he was still stuck in the Sox pen), and if he was in our pen then he would be our closer.

Meaning we probably just traded one of our best hitters for an average closer

[blumj]

Because he has been demoted to bullpen in the past (not really sure but I thought he was still stuck in the Sox pen), and if he was in our pen then he would be our closer.

Meaning we probably just traded one of our best hitters for an average closer

Bronson's never closed, the reason the Red Sox were willing to trade him is that they currently have under contract for this season: Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, David Wells, Matt Clement, and Tim Wakefield. They had Bronson slotted into the pen because they had no other place for him if they couldn't get a deal for Clement or Wells. Apparently, they couldn't. They also have young pitchers they intend to get into the rotation in the near future.

[PuffyPig]

Has anyone else thought it was strange that Dunn, who's supposed to be learning a new position, hadn't been playing first base all spring? I don't think that Dunn wanted to play first, and in signing his long term contract, was given a soft promise that he didn't have to. hence the stories about the Reds wanting to move an OF.

Secondly, I don't think that Pena's potential for hitting 40 HR's was reason enough to keep him. If he did hit 40 bombs, he would have quickly become non-affordable. He's simply not the type of player (1 demensional) that we can pay big, long term bucks too). What we really traded was the ability to flip Pena for something better later on.

Was that likely to occur? If Pena was not going to see fulltime duty (due to Dunn remaining in the OF), it simply wasn't going to happen. his trade value would decrease with his playing time, and as he inched closer to FA. At least with Arroyo, he's signed to a below market deal for 3 more years.

To me, the real question is whether or not Pena should have been shipped out for a (potentially) better prospect pitcher. Could we have gotten the equvalency of a Reyes? The answer to that question would go a long way to helping me form an opinion.

[Patrick Bateman]

Because he has been demoted to bullpen in the past (not really sure but I thought he was still stuck in the Sox pen), and if he was in our pen then he would be our closer.

Meaning we probably just traded one of our best hitters for an average closer

He was only in the pen because the Sox had 7 major league starters.

We traded Pena for an above average starter, plain and simple because that is the role he will be playing for us.

[Chip R]

They also have young pitchers they intend to get into the rotation in the near future.

A nice luxury to have, isn't it?

[blumj]

A nice luxury to have, isn't it?
Yeah, but Arroyo was claimed off waivers, Dinardo was a rule 5 pick, Papelbon a 4th round pick who closed in college, Lester a high school 2nd rounder, and Alvarez a college 1st round supplemental pick. And they have a bunch of relief prospects, too, one of whom is a converted catcher. A few years ago, Josh Hancock and Phil Dumatrait were their top pitching prospects. Having money helps, but there's a lot you can do without it, too.

[Chip R]

Yeah, but Arroyo was claimed off waivers, Dinardo was a rule 5 pick, Papelbon a 4th round pick who closed in college, Lester a high school 2nd rounder, and Alvarez a college 1st round supplemental pick. And they have a bunch of relief prospects, too, one of whom is a converted catcher. A few years ago, Josh Hancock and Phil Dumatrait were their top pitching prospect. Having money helps, but there's a lot you can do without it, too.

Oh, I totally agree and I'm just envious that the Sox have been able to have the luxury to be able to trade a guy like Arroyo. I don't particularly care how they did it - and from the looks of it they didn't go out and buy it - but they have it and we don't. Wouldn't it be nice if we were the ones who had a surplus of starters? It would be a nice problem to have.

[flyer85]

They also have young pitchers they intend to get into the rotation in the near future.what are those? Haven't seen any in Cincinnati.

Then again these kind of trades are what happens when you have little of value on the major league roster and absolutely nothing in the upper minors.

In little time Lester and Papelbon are likely to make the Sox Nation forget there ever was a pitcher named Arroyo.

[TeamSelig]

I never said he was a closer, just said that he was in the bullpen and that if he were to be in our bullpen, he would be our closer.

[ochre]

Thanks all.

How about Wily Mo? Any insight beyond the obvious?

From what I've read, tremendous power, hideous k-rate & OBP, great arm, decent speed but has horrible reads, instincts defensively. Why hasnt he improved? He's young but has a lot of MLB service time. Was he rushed, not receptive to coaching?
It's probably somewhat in the obvious category, but he has murdered lefties. If all Boston wants/needs him to do is platoon against lefties he'll likely put up monster numbers.

[Gainesville Red]

I've spent most of tonight reading the other team's boards from the Archives Section.

It's funny. Most of the teams boards feel like the Sox got the better end of the deal, but the Reds still got something they need for the first page or so. Not a great move, but not a terrible one either. Most are happy to have WMP out of the NL.

Then someone says, wait a second, didn't they trade Casey so WMP, Kearns and Griff can play at the same time.

Then someone says, it's okay, they'll move Freel out to left, they'll be alright. Maybe even better. They used a surplus, to get a serviceable pitcher.

Then someone says, no you don't understand, they're using Womack at second and Hatteberg at first. On the Cubs board a poster even said, "Womack, (ugh.)"

Then everyone laughs at the Reds for the next couple pages.

By the way, the Braves page was the only one I saw that gave any mention of Harang, so good for them I guess. Everyone else assumes Arroyo's our best pitcher by default.

Another thing I noticed is that everyone thinks they're in the Craig Wilson race.

Interesting to see what other teams think. I love that the boards are archived.

[Revering4Blue]

http://www.limaohio.com/story.php?IDnum=23840

Krivsky’s moves get Reds back in the game
By TOM USHER
419-993-2089
03/22/2006
tusher@limanews.com

Six weeks.
That’s all it took for Reds General Manager Wayne Krivsky to pull off a major trade.
In just six weeks, Krivsky has shown he is a true baseball man of action.
Krivsky sent promising 24-year-old outfielder Wily Mo Pena to Boston for right-hander Bronson Arroyo on Monday.
The 29-year-old Arroyo immediately uplifts one of the worst starting staffs in baseball.
After all, the Reds’ pitching staff ranked last in the league last year in earned-run average with a hefty 5.15 figure.
It was the reason they finished a miserable 73-89 last season.
Krivsky couldn’t stand to start the year with essentially the same cast.
Instead, he pulled the trigger on a major deal.
In the interview for the job he took on Feb. 8, Krivsky said rather matter-of-factly that the Reds had a staff of No. 4 starters.
With Arroyo, at least they have a No. 3 type and possibly a No. 2.
Arroyo went 14-10 with a 4.51 earned-run average in 35 games for the Red Sox last season. He established career highs for wins (14), starts (32) and innings pitched (205Z|c). He also had 20 quality starts.
He struck out 100 and walked 54. Right-handers hit .234 off Arroyo, while left-handers hit .288 against him.
Arroyo gives the rotation a slice of meat. Before, it had the look of a dinner of soup and salad.
There’s no doubt about Pena’s power. Last year, he hit .254 with 19 home runs in 311 at-bats. He also struck out 116 times.
And so what if Pena turns into an All-Star?
If Arroyo helps the team get back to respectability, it’s more than worth it.
“I can’t worry about that (Pena’s future),” Krivsky told The Cincinnati Enquirer. “We’re better with Arroyo in the rotation and Adam Dunn in left field.”
That’s the bottom line.
The rotation will now have Aaron Harang (11-13, 3.83 ERA), Arroyo, Brandon Claussen (10-11, 4.21), Dave Williams (10-11, 4.41) and Eric Milton (8-15, 6.47). Paul Wilson, who is coming off major shoulder surgery, may not be ready before May.
Krivsky signed first baseman Scott Hatteberg on Feb. 12. He had been a regular with Oakland and hit .256 with seven home runs and 59 RBIs last season. He also had 19 doubles and walked 51 times in 464 at-bats.
That move made it possible to deal Pena. Dunn, who was penciled in at first base, goes back to left field to join Ken Griffey Jr. and Austin Kearns in the outfield.
That makes the Reds’ defense much stronger.
In former general manager Dan O’Brien’s tenure (from Oct. 2003 to Jan. 2006), he talked of upgrading the club.
However, the best he could do this offseason was send first baseman Sean Casey to the Pirates for another No. 4 starter, left-hander Williams.
That simply wasn’t good enough.
The only way this rotation was going to receive a significant boost was to trade Dunn or Pena.
Austin Kearns’ market value has dropped after numerous injuries and hitting .240 last year.
Krivsky is limited this year by a budget that will range between $60 and $65 million. He knows this ballclub still needs pitching.
For now, he did the only thing he could.
He traded from the Reds’ strength, the outfield.
Getting Arroyo improves the starting staff.
That’s why it was a good move.

[redsmetz]

I found it interesting that some believe that in Wily Mo, they've got Dave Kingman reborn - a one-dimensional player whose job it is to hit homers. I went to baseball-reference.com and did the comparison at his age and it was interesting. Three are HOF'ers (with a 4th possible - Barry Bonds - this isn't about that debate): Winfield, Mays & R. Jackson), the remaining are guys who were pretty fair ballplayers, as they say: Burroughs, Incaviglia, W. Horton, Ruppert Jones, Steve Kemp, Mel Hall, etc. Some one dimensional, some complete ballplayers who had not too bad careers. I think the book remains out on Wily Mo. I do think he was worth getting a decent pitcher for at least 3 years. Hopefully in that time, we'll continue building around him and Harrang & Claussen and maybe he'll come to love Cincinnati as much as Boston - show him where Skyline Chili is... and Bogarts.

[Heath]

I found it interesting that some believe that in Wily Mo, they've got Dave Kingman reborn - a one-dimensional player whose job it is to hit homers. I went to baseball-reference.com and did the comparison at his age and it was interesting. Three are HOF'ers (with a 4th possible - Barry Bonds - this isn't about that debate): Winfield, Mays & R. Jackson), the remaining are guys who were pretty fair ballplayers, as they say: Burroughs, Incaviglia, W. Horton, Ruppert Jones, Steve Kemp, Mel Hall, etc. Some one dimensional, some complete ballplayers who had not too bad careers. I think the book remains out on Wily Mo. I do think he was worth getting a decent pitcher for at least 3 years. Hopefully in that time, we'll continue building around him and Harrang & Claussen and maybe he'll come to love Cincinnati as much as Boston - show him where Skyline Chili is... and Bogarts.

plus there has to be SOME hairdresser in Mt. Adams that would do cornrows - and don't forget Ladies' night down on Short Vine. ;) Mr. Arroyo will be the celebrity "bouncer".

[5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM]

I know im gonna get it for this, but do you all really think we are that far from A winner. We played the second half of the year at .500, led the nl in runs, added two good pitchers to replace Ortiz 5.36, and Hudson 6.38. The Cubs are hurtin, the cardinals havn't done much in the way of improving, the pirates and Brewers still have a way to go in my eyes and last but not least it looks like the Rocket has left the Astros. So maybe im nuts but I dont think it's time to shuffle in the youngins quite yet. Give em a chance to prove they are as bad as you think. And as for what I think about the Pena trade, we scored a lot of runs when he was out of the line-up last year we can do it again this year, only this time Ortiz and Hudson won't be around to keep the other team in it.
I had to pull this post from the archives, its my I told you so post. Ok dave Williams was one of the good pitchers I was talking about and he sucked, and the rocket is back, but nobody's perfect.

[Z-Fly]

Ok.... Pat on the back for you. :KoolAid:

[Hubba]

;)
We got ripped off!

[Hubba]

Krivsky's first trade: F+ or D-Fire Krivsky;)

[Hubba]

;)
Offense will score 100-150 less runs this year. Pitching will not improve.

Hey jmmclain, fire up that Fire Krivsky website!

[Ltlabner]

Wow...there are some quality gems in that thread for sure!

WMP for BA = F+ !!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHHA

[lollipopcurve]

I wish I were an Oakland A's or Cleveland Indians fan right now. Wonder what it feels like to have a bunch of great young hitters and pitchers and a great farm system led by a great front office? Those two organizations have it made in the shade right now.

Seriously, if I were Bob Castinelli, I would give Chris Antonetti a call and offer him a ridiculous contract to become the Reds GM.

Maybe Big Bob "Castenelli" did hire Antonetti under the table... "Sure, Wayne, we'll take Jeff Stevens for Brandon Phillips! You're welcome!"

[oregonred]

Knowing that, the Reds didn't have to trade Pena for Arroyo. They could have simply re-signed Ramon Ortiz and kept Pena as it would have been most likely a RD wash versus the Arroyo/Hatteberg combo. Ouch. Double ouch.

Basically, Krivsky just told us that he doesn't trust anyone currently available to throw 200 IP of 5.00 ERA ball by themselves or in combination (i.e. 150-to-180 IP SP + 20-to-50 IP RP). So he made a bold move to acquire less than what the Reds actually needed and didn't make a Win probability impact to the plus side.

That'll happen when your General Manager doesn't understand simple math.

Baseball is a funny game...

[RollyInRaleigh]

Yes it is. Yaneverknow.

[oregonred]

What I want to say is I LOVE it when people have strong opinions on trades.

And that should be encouraged even though it's sometimes funny to look back in time after things play out.

At times some of us are 100% wrong and sometimes some other folks are 100% right, but it's a blast to go back in time into an archived trade/draft/FA thread and see what was posted and how it played out.

[registerthis]

Baseball is a funny game...

Should we then assume that Arroyo has had a "Win probability impact to the plus side" for the Reds? :)

[lollipopcurve]

Yaneverknow.

No, it just takes time.

Tellyalater.

[Ltlabner]

Wow...I just read a few selected pages of this thread. (Yes, I know, I should be working).

If you just changed the name of the WMP/BA thread to "the trade" it would be almost identical to what we are hearing now about "the trade". Even a lot of the posts are the same.

"A panic move"
"A horrible return"
"No different than when DanO was here"
"Should have gotten more"
"We could have waited till the trade deadline and gotten more for him"

And on and on. And generally the same people on the anti-WMP/BA deal are the anti-The Trade people. Generally the same people who understood the WMP/BA deal are equally understanding of "the trade".

I'm not making any comment about people being right or wrong about either trade. It's just funny how peoples minds work and how they can react so simularlly about two completly different trades.

[RedEye]

Wow...I just read a few selected pages of this thread. (Yes, I know, I should be working).

If you just changed the name of the WMP/BA thread to "the trade" it would be almost identical to what we are hearing now about "the trade". Even a lot of the posts are the same.

"A panic move"
"A horrible return"
"No different than when DanO was here"
"Should have gotten more"
"We could have waited till the trade deadline and gotten more for him"

And on and on. And generally the same people on the anti-WMP/BA deal are the anti-The Trade people.

I'm not making any comment about people being right or wrong about either trade. It's just funny how peoples minds work and how they can react so simularlly about two completly different trades.

I reacted in a similar way to both trades, I must admit. The difference was that after the WMP-BA trade, I arrived at some sort of peace less than 24 hours later. Much as I hated to give up WMP, that trade made sense for the Reds. Even if Arroyo had a 4.5 ERA right now, he'd be an upgrade for this staff... and WMP wasn't ever really going to blossom as an all-around player in Cincy.

I am still not at peace with "The Trade", and I don't think I ever really will be. That's because I cannot, for the life of me, understand how we could get so little value in return for two players entering their prime. Maj going down with arm problems only exacerbates my indigestion.

In retrospect, the WMP-BA is a reasonable move that got under my skin for the first day or so. The Trade, on the other hand, will only not be a disaster if we get very, very lucky over the next few years, because the supposed "win now" return (the only way to defend it in the first place) has just not been there at all.

[Matt700wlw]

The Reds won this trade, even if Arroyo has struggled lately.

[Ltlabner]

Should we then assume that Arroyo has had a "Win probability impact to the plus side" for the Reds? :)

What the heck is a "win probablity impact to the plus side" anyway?

Sounds like some sorta gibberish DanO would have said.

[Rotater Cuff]

What the heck is a "win probablity impact to the plus side" anyway?

Sounds like some sorta gibberish DanO would have said.

I agree. Good trades benefit both teams, and that's exactly what's happening here. We may get 15 wins out of Arroyo this year, plus the bullpen took at least 3 games from him.
Meantime Pena is hitting well, but continues to suffer too many injuries. This trade works for me.

[RollyInRaleigh]

No, it just takes time.

Tellyalater.

Pretty sure of that?

[TeamBoone]

I agree. Good trades benefit both teams, and that's exactly what's happening here. We may get 15 wins out of Arroyo this year, plus the bullpen took at least 3 games from him.
Meantime Pena is hitting well, but continues to suffer too many injuries. This trade works for me.

I totally agree with this.

I see no reason why one team has to win and the other has to lose.

[vaticanplum]

I'd forgotten just how hard everybody was on Hatteberg at first. I know he's had an unexpectedly good year, but lord, there was NEVER any reason to put him in the same category as Tony Womack.

edit: There is an unintentional double entendre in my post. I enjoy it when I surprise myself with brilliance.

[TRF]

Wow...I just read a few selected pages of this thread. (Yes, I know, I should be working).

If you just changed the name of the WMP/BA thread to "the trade" it would be almost identical to what we are hearing now about "the trade". Even a lot of the posts are the same.

"A panic move"
"A horrible return"
"No different than when DanO was here"
"Should have gotten more"
"We could have waited till the trade deadline and gotten more for him"

And on and on. And generally the same people on the anti-WMP/BA deal are the anti-The Trade people. Generally the same people who understood the WMP/BA deal are equally understanding of "the trade".

I'm not making any comment about people being right or wrong about either trade. It's just funny how peoples minds work and how they can react so simularlly about two completly different trades.

The bolded text says that you are passing judgement. And yeah, I was/am still against the WMP trade. I thought the Reds should have gotten more.

And I still do. BA had a nice start the other day, and was abysmal the previous 4.

[Ltlabner]

The bolded text says that you are passing judgement. And yeah, Iwas am still against the WMP trade. I thought the Reds should have gotten more.

And I still do. BA had a nice start the other day, and was abysmal the previous 4.

Uhhhh.....I don't know what sort of "judgement" I have passed with that bolded text. I was commenting on who liked both trades vs. who didn't like both trades and how the reasoning and reactions were mostly identical for both groups. Not sure how that's a "judgement".

[TRF]

It implies that those who were for it, understood the trade, and thos who weren't don't understand. seemed like a passing judgement statement. If not, I apologize.

[blumj]

I totally agree with this.

I see no reason why one team has to win and the other has to lose.

As a Red Sox fan who has come to like the Reds a lot, I still love this trade for both teams, and I still think both players wound up in nearly perfect situations for them.

[Ltlabner]

It implies that those who were for it, understood the trade, and thos who weren't don't understand. seemed like a passing judgement statement. If not, I apologize.

Yea, not at all what I meant to imply. Sorry about that.

When I said "understand" I just meant understanding the rationale for the trade and the reasoning behind it. And seeing that addressing the pitching needs outweighed the "return" issue.

While those who didn't like the trade generally felt like the return wasn't good enough for what we gave up. But I wasn't trying to imply that those who didn't like the WMP/BA trade didn't "understand" the rationale behind it. Just that their emphasis was more on the trade return angle.

[ochre]

The people that hated it, largely, understood the rationale behind it.

[WVRed]

The people that hated it, largely, understood the rationale behind it.

I'd like for OBM's take on this thread right now.;)

[MWM]

The people that hated it, largely, understood the rationale behind it.

Seriously! This whole "those of us who understood it" is a bunch of crap, and very self-righteous as well. And for the record, I didn't hate the WMP trade.

[oregonred]

The people that hated it, largely, understood the rationale behind it.

Agree with that. The ongoing debate has been on the return received and the differing perceptions of the value of what was shipped to RFK.

[Ltlabner]

Agree with that. The ongoing debate has been on the return received and the differing perceptions of the value of what was shipped to RFK.

This is a far better way of expressing what I was trying to say in earlier posts.

Again, I did not mean to imply that those who didn't like the trade didn't understand it or were confused by it or something.

[Razor Shines]

Wow...I just read a few selected pages of this thread. (Yes, I know, I should be working).

If you just changed the name of the WMP/BA thread to "the trade" it would be almost identical to what we are hearing now about "the trade". Even a lot of the posts are the same.

"A panic move"
"A horrible return"
"No different than when DanO was here"
"Should have gotten more"
"We could have waited till the trade deadline and gotten more for him"

And on and on. And generally the same people on the anti-WMP/BA deal are the anti-The Trade people. Generally the same people who understood the WMP/BA deal are equally understanding of "the trade".

I'm not making any comment about people being right or wrong about either trade. It's just funny how peoples minds work and how they can react so simularlly about two completly different trades.
Gotta say I didn't see the problem with this sentence the first time I read it. But I think I knew what he meant. I don't want to put words in Ltlabner's mouth or in his posts, but I read "understood" and "understanding" as accepted and accepting or "ok with" the trade. That's what I thought he meant and I appologize Lt. if I am wrong.

[SteelSD]

Baseball is a funny game...

Bronson Arroyo is the current owner of a 4.12 DIPS ERA and a 1.19 DIPS rate; ranking him 7th in the NL in ERA luck. The good news is that Arroyo has been able to find a good K rate again- which is the only thing keeping his DIPS ERA below 4.50 because his HR/9 rate (1.32) has been awful for the season and decisively unacceptable since the ASB (2.09 HR/9 IP).

If find it quite ironic that anyone would dredge this thread to the top while Arroyo's been regressing to his mean- and while he's been pitching much much worse than earlier in the season. If his K rate deteriorates at all, he's sunk.

[Falls City Beer]

Bronson Arroyo is the current owner of a 4.12 DIPS ERA and a 1.19 DIPS rate; ranking him 7th in the NL in ERA luck. The good news is that Arroyo has been able to find a good K rate again- which is the only thing keeping his DIPS ERA below 4.50 because his HR/9 rate (1.32) has been awful for the season and decisively unacceptable since the ASB (2.09 HR/9 IP).

If find it quite ironic that anyone would dredge this thread to the top while Arroyo's been regressing to his mean- and while he's been pitching much much worse than earlier in the season. If his K rate deteriorates at all, he's sunk.

I think Bronson's HR rate is part and parcel of his Narron-ish workload.

[SteelSD]

I think Bronson's HR rate is part and parcel of his Narron-ish workload.

Maybe, but I wonder about whether or not some smacks that would have banged off the green monster in Fenway may have turned into HR at the GAB (or at a HR-neutral park as well). Arroyo's doubles totals for the past two years (46, 57) are extreme. If you look at 2004 versus this year, it's nearly a one-to-one 2B to HR transfer.

That's simply speculation, of course, because I don't have the split numbers to support it as a formal hypothesis. But it's enough to make me wonder.

[WMR]

Wow...I just read a few selected pages of this thread. (Yes, I know, I should be working).

If you just changed the name of the WMP/BA thread to "the trade" it would be almost identical to what we are hearing now about "the trade". Even a lot of the posts are the same.

"A panic move"
"A horrible return"
"No different than when DanO was here"
"Should have gotten more"
"We could have waited till the trade deadline and gotten more for him"

And on and on. And generally the same people on the anti-WMP/BA deal are the anti-The Trade people. Generally the same people who understood the WMP/BA deal are equally understanding of "the trade".

I'm not making any comment about people being right or wrong about either trade. It's just funny how peoples minds work and how they can react so simularlly about two completly different trades.

I still miss you Wily Mo and truly believe that you will end up being the more valuable MLB player.

[WMR]

Why do the Reds seem intent on utilizing their field players in the stupidest way possible??? It belies logic which is something I thought we'd received an infusion of with this new regime...

QUOTED please.

A real shame that Jerry and Wayne took 80% of a season to make the right decisions and still messed things up.

[RedsBaron]

I think Bronson's HR rate is part and parcel of his Narron-ish workload.
I have that same fear. It is possible to so overwork a pitcher that an extra day or so of rest isn't enough to "cure" an ailing arm. I have been concerned for some time that Narron may overwork both Arroyo and Harang.

[5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM]

The Reds won this trade, even if Arroyo has struggled lately.
We ccan probably get wmp back in the offseason if we wanted to, trade milton for him.

[TRF]

I think Bronson's HR rate is part and parcel of his Narron-ish workload.

Prior to the ASB, BA gave up 15 HR's in 130 IP. That's a lot of innings. In the 46 innings since he has give up 11 HR's. That is alarming. He's on a pace for 231 IP this year, almost 30 more than last year, his previous high.

[registerthis]

Hopefully his last outing is a sign that his last month or so is behind him.

When we acquired him, most people said an ERA under 4.50 would make them quite happy. Well, here we are in August, and he's got his ERA at 3.45 along with a 1.22 WHIP and is sitting at 7 K/9.

So, are we happy? I know I am. Let's not wring our hands over his DIPS ERA and instead appreciate the fact that he's been an above-average starter for us to this point in the year, and hope and pray that Narron does everything possible to save his arm for October.

[Johnny Footstool]

Maybe, but I wonder about whether or not some smacks that would have banged off the green monster in Fenway may have turned into HR at the GAB (or at a HR-neutral park as well). Arroyo's doubles totals for the past two years (46, 57) are extreme. If you look at 2004 versus this year, it's nearly a one-to-one 2B to HR transfer.

That's simply speculation, of course, because I don't have the split numbers to support it as a formal hypothesis. But it's enough to make me wonder.

Arroyo has allowed 24 2B and 19 HR vs. Lefties this season and only 10 2B and 7 HR vs. RH. His 2003-2005 splits showed a similar but somewhat less pronounced differentiation.

Arroyo owns righties, but simply gets bombed by lefties. I'd surmise that NL managers figured this out a couple of months ago and started stacking their lineups with lefties. Also, most lefty NL hitters figured out Arroyo throws quite a few floaters that they can get around on. Those are probably the main reasons for his recent struggles.

As for his time in Fenway, you can reasonably assume most of those HR allowed to lefties ended up in the right field bleachers, so I doubt the Green Monster was much of a factor.

[blumj]

As for his time in Fenway, you can reasonably assume most of those HR allowed to lefties ended up in the right field bleachers, so I doubt the Green Monster was much of a factor.
If you know where to find it, I believe the doubles allowed to RHHs at Fenway was the biggest difference in his H/R splits in '04-'05, and that would likely be a direct result of the monster.

[Handofdeath]

Arroyo has allowed 24 2B and 19 HR vs. Lefties this season and only 10 2B and 7 HR vs. RH. His 2003-2005 splits showed a similar but somewhat less pronounced differentiation.

Arroyo owns righties, but simply gets bombed by lefties. I'd surmise that NL managers figured this out a couple of months ago and started stacking their lineups with lefties. Also, most lefty NL hitters figured out Arroyo throws quite a few floaters that they can get around on. Those are probably the main reasons for his recent struggles.

As for his time in Fenway, you can reasonably assume most of those HR allowed to lefties ended up in the right field bleachers, so I doubt the Green Monster was much of a factor.


All I know is this. Despite his recent struggles Arroyo is still in the Top 10 in the NL in Wins, K's, and ERA. They traded a "potential" good hitter for a legit #2/#3 starter. I'd say the Reds made a very good trade and they would probably do it again in a heartbeat.

[Rotater Cuff]

It doesn't matter who "won" the trade. Trades can work for both teams.
My question is: Would we be in the position we're in (2.5 games behind St. Louis) with Wily Mo instead of Bronson?

That's the bottom line.