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View Full Version : Brief Poll: Like the Pena trade?



REDREAD
03-20-2006, 02:55 PM
Curious of what the majority thinks.

KronoRed
03-20-2006, 02:58 PM
If this was the best we could do we should have kept him.

StillFunkyB
03-20-2006, 03:23 PM
I'm not to thrilled about it right now.

That could change.

uks2h
03-20-2006, 03:35 PM
I am a HUGE Wily Mo fan. That said, I hate this trade, obviously. I lose Larkin, Casey, and now Pena in the last few seasons and gain nobody to be a fan of. I guess Womack is likeable if he performs well...

I don't know what to say. I have bought my Opening Day tickets already, and was looking forward to the re-building of this organization and tradition that I love. I am forever going to be a Reds fan, but man, it's really sad to lose a player that you always knew has "it".

Bronson Arroyo? Heh, whatever. Not the player I'd want in exchange for one of my favorite players. There is a reason Red Sox fans are loving this. People aren't blind. WMP is young, and has a nice career ahead of him.

All of this said, I obviously understand why this was done. Hitting for pitching...that's fine. I just wonder why it couldn't have been Austin Kearns to be dumped for pitching. What has Kearns proved that Pena hasn't?

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 03:38 PM
The more I think about the deal, the more I like it.

Call it cautious, but I like the deal.

RedRoser
03-20-2006, 03:40 PM
That he can make consistent contact, not to mention play some good defense perhaps? :eek:

indy_dave00
03-20-2006, 03:40 PM
I'm definately less than pleased . So its just hard to get excited about a 29 year old .500 (33-33) pitcher with a lifetime 4.59 era. Giving up more hits 611 than innings pitched 588 doesn't excite me either.

But hopefully he'll give the Reds 200+ innings with an era in the 3.80-4.15 range. Just think Wily Mo Pena was worth a bit better return.

reds1869
03-20-2006, 03:44 PM
Pitching is very thin. Given the market, I think this was a good trade. WMP has explosive potential, but let's face the fact that we can give up plenty of offense for anything approaching decent pitching. Arroyo isn't Cy Young material, but he is more than adequate to get the job done with teh run support he will likely get. We managed to make a trade that improved our team and didn't break the bank.

dougdirt
03-20-2006, 04:14 PM
Hate it.
The last two seasons Arroyo has given up 60 more air outs than ground outs. He is a contact pitcher. He will be pitching in GABP. Its going to get real ugly.

BenHayes
03-20-2006, 04:17 PM
Pitching they say wins games. That said , will be interesting to see if the loss of WMP homers will be offset at the GABP by Arroyo,s fairly average stuff.Personally i think it would have been a nightmare to start the season with the rotation as it was shapeing up with or without Wilson.Offensively the development of EE at third might keep the runs per game at the same level as last year.I think the end result might be to the plus by a few games.

adampad
03-20-2006, 04:25 PM
I am a HUGE Wily Mo fan. That said, I hate this trade, obviously. I lose Larkin, Casey, and now Pena in the last few seasons and gain nobody to be a fan of. I guess Womack is likeable if he performs well...

I don't know what to say. I have bought my Opening Day tickets already, and was looking forward to the re-building of this organization and tradition that I love. I am forever going to be a Reds fan, but man, it's really sad to lose a player that you always knew has "it".

Bronson Arroyo? Heh, whatever. Not the player I'd want in exchange for one of my favorite players. There is a reason Red Sox fans are loving this. People aren't blind. WMP is young, and has a nice career ahead of him.

All of this said, I obviously understand why this was done. Hitting for pitching...that's fine. I just wonder why it couldn't have been Austin Kearns to be dumped for pitching. What has Kearns proved that Pena hasn't?

My feelings excatly. I feel cheated.

redsmetz
03-20-2006, 04:31 PM
Bronson Arroyo? Heh, whatever. Not the player I'd want in exchange for one of my favorite players. There is a reason Red Sox fans are loving this. People aren't blind. WMP is young, and has a nice career ahead of him.

My reading of fans' reactions on the Boston Globe website shows them to be as divided as Reds fans.

reds44
03-20-2006, 04:31 PM
I like it.

Highlifeman21
03-20-2006, 04:34 PM
I am a HUGE Wily Mo fan. That said, I hate this trade, obviously. I lose Larkin, Casey, and now Pena in the last few seasons and gain nobody to be a fan of. I guess Womack is likeable if he performs well...

I don't know what to say. I have bought my Opening Day tickets already, and was looking forward to the re-building of this organization and tradition that I love. I am forever going to be a Reds fan, but man, it's really sad to lose a player that you always knew has "it".

Bronson Arroyo? Heh, whatever. Not the player I'd want in exchange for one of my favorite players. There is a reason Red Sox fans are loving this. People aren't blind. WMP is young, and has a nice career ahead of him.

All of this said, I obviously understand why this was done. Hitting for pitching...that's fine. I just wonder why it couldn't have been Austin Kearns to be dumped for pitching. What has Kearns proved that Pena hasn't?

Your loyalties are divided if you're looking at Womack as your next Red to like.... Larkin was old, it was his time to go; Casey was getting old and way too expensive for his lack of production, time for him to go too; and while I like WMP, we have a strength in OF and moving an OF for pitching just makese way too much sense in my book. As for Womack being likeable if he performs well, you're gonna hate him, b/c he's never performed well his entire career!

Coffeybro
03-20-2006, 04:38 PM
I like the trade. I'm not to sure Wilson would be ready by the start of the season so this just adds to the starters while making Adamn happy playing his old position.

TRF
03-20-2006, 04:57 PM
nope. Arroyo was a good start, but the return was too small by half. I'd have preferred another arm to pile 'o cash.

Superdude
03-20-2006, 05:12 PM
I feel like Krivsky got raped by Theo here. Couldn't we have at least gotten Lester or something? We should have just waited a year for Pena to break out. Just seems like a waste of an absurdly talented player to me.

Larkin411
03-20-2006, 05:13 PM
Obviously I'm biased because I love Wily Mo and it makes me sad to see him leave.

However, this trade just strikes me as a bad idea in a lot of ways(unless, of course, it is all part of some complicated plan that involves us trading Arroyo for something much, much better later on).

I would much rather see the management building an actual farm system than trying to build Rome in a day. Plus, I have a lot more faith in Boston's management than in our own which makes me think this deal is probably better for them than us in a lot of ways.

spaethc
03-20-2006, 05:21 PM
I hate this trade. Sure I might be a bit biased since Wily Mo was my 2nd favorite player on the team, but I am not conviced that this is the best we could have gotten for him.

VI_RedsFan
03-20-2006, 05:33 PM
I'd give this trade a C. I don't hate it, but I don't love it either. I loved Wily Mo, but I trust Krivsky, and I feel that this is probably the best we could've got for him.

registerthis
03-20-2006, 05:34 PM
Hate it.
The last two seasons Arroyo has given up 60 more air outs than ground outs. He is a contact pitcher. He will be pitching in GABP. Its going to get real ugly.

Fenway is a hitter's park, you can't assume a spike in Arroyo's numbers based solely on park factors. The only legitimate concern I have with Arroyo is his ability to rebound from his disappointing K rate last year--whether it was merely indicative of his first year with over 200 IP, or whether it was indicative of a larger problem. He has good control and velocity, and not every fly ball is going to carry over the fence.

in fact, upon further contemplation, a flyball pitcher who can keep the ball in the park may be a perfect fit for this team, considering how the infield defense is shaping up. The fewer chances those guys have, the better as far as I'm concerned.

registerthis
03-20-2006, 05:36 PM
I feel like Krivsky got raped by Theo here. Couldn't we have at least gotten Lester or something?

Not for anything other than Kearns or Dunn, as per the Sox.

User Name
03-20-2006, 05:43 PM
IMO, while WMP did show flashes of ridiculous power and has a high ceiling, I don't feel that he will ever develop the baseball sense/knowledge that he would need to fully realize his potential. I feel that his deficiencies on defense (esp. being able to read a ball in the air, play it on a bounce, or make a sharp accurate throw) and baserunning outweigh his potential strengths within what this team already has and what I would like it to become.

oneupper
03-20-2006, 05:43 PM
I was on the fence, now I think we should have waited.
A full time Peña could have put up some huge numbers in the REDS lineup.
We could have gotten more for him at the end of the season (players) or at the deadline (prospects).

It's all about 2007 and beyond anyway.

As for 2006, I can see opposing managers lining up the lefty starters already. There isn't a potent RH bat in the lineup.

registerthis
03-20-2006, 05:44 PM
There isn't a potent RH bat in the lineup.

Don't have high hopes for FeLo or EdE then, eh?

User Name
03-20-2006, 05:45 PM
I think we could get more for Arroyo than WMP at the deadline or at the end of the season. Teams value pitching more in a pennant run.

oneupper
03-20-2006, 05:47 PM
Don't have high hopes for FeLo or EdE then, eh?


FeLo's RH splits last year were awful. As for EdE...I don't think he'll get the playing time or the spot in the lineup (look for him to bat 8th) to make an impact with his power.

Kearns splits equally against L/R. WMP was a LEFTY - KILLER

Bigredfan#1
03-20-2006, 05:48 PM
I HATE IT!! Another 3 type pitcher who was not even going to be in the rotation for the Sox. Surely Wily Mo was worth more. The are now weaker offensively, no way they make up for Casey at 1b. By the way that trade sure stinks too, it was a salary dump but they have not used the money to get anything worth having! Has the front office decided to throw in the towel already?

flyer85
03-20-2006, 05:57 PM
Depends on what the goal is.

If the goal is to maximize wins in 2006 then it is probably a good deal.

If the goal is position the team for success in the long term it makes little sense.

It seems to me the Krivsky/Uncle Bob plan is just a reincarnation of the Bowden plan which was simply figure out each year how to max out the number of wins without a plan to build future success.

Nugget
03-20-2006, 05:59 PM
Good Trade - WMP has probably dropped in the REDS hitter ranks to 5th and is overvalued when you consider that all he really has is his bat. Not a fielding outfielder. The REDS get a major league pitcher, a right hander and some cash for other deals.

Whilst WMP is only arbitration eligible the REDS would still be looking at $5 million on average for him over those years which could be better spent on pitching.

Arroyo may not be a #1 but looking at the other pitchers that could be had for WMP he is up there. He is better than Derek Lowe and Jake Westbrook.

registerthis
03-20-2006, 06:00 PM
FeLo's RH splits last year were awful. As for EdE...I don't think he'll get the playing time or the spot in the lineup (look for him to bat 8th) to make an impact with his power.

I think EdE will get a greater chance than many here seem to think. He's tearing things up in ST, my prediction is that he'll win the starting third base job and bat 6th--behind Kearns, before Hatteberg.

oneupper
03-20-2006, 06:25 PM
I think EdE will get a greater chance than many here seem to think. He's tearing things up in ST, my prediction is that he'll win the starting third base job and bat 6th--behind Kearns, before Hatteberg.

Hatteberg's splits, BTW aren't good either. Casey could hit LH, at least (and at times with power). I'd suspect Aurilia starts against RH.

Against LHP

Freel - 2B
Aurilia - 1B
Griffey - CF
Kearns - RF
Dunn - LF
Lopez - SS
LaRue - C
EdE - 3B

I don't like, but that's what it is gonna be, IMO.

uks2h
03-20-2006, 06:41 PM
Your loyalties are divided if you're looking at Womack as your next Red to like.... Larkin was old, it was his time to go; Casey was getting old and way too expensive for his lack of production, time for him to go too; and while I like WMP, we have a strength in OF and moving an OF for pitching just makese way too much sense in my book. As for Womack being likeable if he performs well, you're gonna hate him, b/c he's never performed well his entire career!

Hmm...I think Larkin should have gotten a final year to be a dugout leader...Casey was overrated, but we traded him for DAVE WILLIAMS???...Wily Mo Pena I can understand trading, but I would much rather trade Kearns who is UNPROVEN year after year...but let's say Pena is the only option to trade...why do we trade him for a 33-33 career pitcher who will just be another Milton and might have our club giving up more homers than any club in history? Someone needs to go back and look at Arroyo's games before they automatically love him for being in the World Series.

biggestREDSfan
03-20-2006, 06:57 PM
I think the trade for Arroyo was a good move for this year. I think he will get more wins for us than what Pena would have. I also loved Wily Mo Pena, but he never got to his potential. You always saw flashes of his potential, but not all the time. Plus right now we have some great outfielders and could afford to give up Pena. And in the mean time we got a good pitcher that can start in our pitching staff. I would grade this trade as a C+.

Highlifeman21
03-20-2006, 08:22 PM
Hmm...I think Larkin should have gotten a final year to be a dugout leader...Casey was overrated, but we traded him for DAVE WILLIAMS???...Wily Mo Pena I can understand trading, but I would much rather trade Kearns who is UNPROVEN year after year...but let's say Pena is the only option to trade...why do we trade him for a 33-33 career pitcher who will just be another Milton and might have our club giving up more homers than any club in history? Someone needs to go back and look at Arroyo's games before they automatically love him for being in the World Series.


IIRC, Larkin got that final year to be a dugout leader. He decided before the 2004 season that it would be his last. It wasn't like he decided to hang em up during the 2004, the decision had already been made.

Dave Williams pitches, Sean Casey does not. We need pitchers. Can Williams really pitch all that much worse that Milton or the rehabbed Wilson? Simple answer: no.

Kearns' career numbers are better than WMP's, so bye bye #26, hello #61.

Arroyo for his career is almost 50-50 FB to GB, so I'm not sure why you're convinced he's gonna give up 40+ HR.

I don't love Arroyo for the fact that he's been in the WS, I love him for the fact that he pitches and steps into be our #2 arm right now behind Harang.

This team made sense for both teams. Boston had a surplus in pitching, we had a surplus in inconsistent OF that like to be free swingers.

Heath
03-20-2006, 08:38 PM
Two things to comment -



It seems to me the Krivsky/Uncle Bob plan is just a reincarnation of the Bowden plan which was simply figure out each year how to max out the number of wins without a plan to build future success.

I'm giving Wayne a couple of drafts and an FA period where he gets the ENTIRE season plus some off-season to develop some type of program before I toss him under the bus. I can't judge a person's GM motives on a late start to the year. Heck, I even gave DanO some rope before he hung himself.


We should have just waited a year for Pena to break out.

What if Willy Mo gets Ray King-ed? What if he blows an ACL? What if he gets dinged on an inside pitch and starts getting paranoid and doesn't dig in?

Your what-if's are equal to my what-if's.

spaethc
03-20-2006, 09:04 PM
I also loved Wily Mo Pena, but he never got to his potential. You always saw flashes of his potential, but not all the time.

Wily Mo is only 24 years old, it isnt fair to say he hasnt lived up to his potential yet.

SunDeck
03-20-2006, 09:24 PM
Just don't know yet. Would I have liked to get a guy with less than a high 4 ERA instead? Sure. But, do I think the Reds could afford Wily Mo, Kearns and Dunn over the long haul AND still have enough scratch left over to acquire the #1/2 guy they need? Nope. And to complicate matters, there just isn't a lot of talent out there that people are willing to give up without getting something sweet in return...like Adam Dunn. I would have been happier if they'd have packaged Wily up with Williams to land someone a little better than what they ended up with.
Lastly, I still think Kearns has a higher ceiling than WMP, so I am happy to see him sticking around.

Krusty
03-20-2006, 10:49 PM
I don't mind this trade. Trading Casey for Dave Williams bothers me.

kyred14
03-20-2006, 10:58 PM
New owners, same crap.

I was getting my hopes up, too.

tts1stros
03-20-2006, 11:16 PM
To me, Pena seems like the ultimate one-tool player: he can hit for power. I knew he was a free-swinger, but I didn't realize his K numbers were as bad as they were. 116 Ks in 311 at-bats!!! Holy moley. And only 20 walks.

I think the Reds had offense to burn. This was a good move. The only question (I didn't think about this until someone said it): Arroyo was traded in the middle of a multi-year contract. Does he have the right to demand a trade next season? I know he took a discount to stay with Boston. If he forced a trade, well, that would be very bad.

ochre
03-20-2006, 11:22 PM
To me, Pena seems like the ultimate one-tool player: he can hit for power. I knew he was a free-swinger, but I didn't realize his K numbers were as bad as they were. 116 Ks in 311 at-bats!!! Holy moley. And only 20 walks.

I think the Reds had offense to burn. This was a good move. The only question (I didn't think about this until someone said it): Arroyo was traded in the middle of a multi-year contract. Does he have the right to demand a trade next season? I know he took a discount to stay with Boston. If he forced a trade, well, that would be very bad.
I think the consensus has been that since he is still in his arbitration years that stipulation does not apply.

Heath
03-20-2006, 11:22 PM
New owners, same crap.

I was getting my hopes up, too.


Sorry to hear that. They're might be some room on the bandwagon in the next couple of years.

Superdude
03-21-2006, 12:30 AM
We pretty much got the same return here as the Casey salary dump. :(

Patrick Bateman
03-21-2006, 12:33 AM
We pretty much got the same return here as the Casey salary dump. :(

Not even close. Williams isn't half the pitcher Bronson is. After looking through their peripheral numbers there is no way you can compare them. IF Bronson reverts to 2004 numbers he would be arguably our best pitcher and would be well above average.

Superdude
03-21-2006, 12:44 AM
That's a big IF. Arroyo's peripherals weren't good last year. His opponent OPS went up over 40 points from '04 and his K rate completely fell off the table.

WVRedsFan
03-21-2006, 01:19 AM
If you look at the statistics of both big trades (the Casey for Williams and Pena for Arroyo trades), you get the feeling that the Reds gave up some offense for pitching. Witness this...

Arroyo has averaged 12 wins the last two years. Harang has averaged around ten. Both have averaged around 10 losses. Both will give you +/- 33 starts and both allow about the same number of hits as innings pitched (a big improvement over the last few years). Neither are great finishers with Harang having two complete games to Arroyo's none. Both are on track to pitch 200 innings. Harang's ERA over the last two years is 4.22 and Arroyo's is 4.29. Close. But if you look at the next best pitcher on the Reds, you get Brandon Claussen who's sample size is so small you can't predict what he will do. His ERA is 4.22 for the two year period.

Compare that with 2004's rotation of Wilson, Harang, Lidle/Claussen (Claussen basically took over for Lidle after he was traded), and the two question marks (Hancock, Hudson, Jesus, etc) with a Harang, Arroyo, Claussen, Williams, and Milton rotation and it's all the difference in the world. Although there are no aces there at least they beat Von Poppel, Hudson, Hancock, Sanchez, Bong et al. So, it's an improvement.

We lose some offense. Assuming that Hatteburg goes to first and Freel to the outfield to replace Pena and Casey, you get more runs scored looking at their two year averages, less home runs, less RBI's, but more doubles, triples, and hits.

I don't know gang. Maybe WayneK knows what he is doing. I'm willing to give him a chance. I think the club is vastly improved over 2004 and somwhat improved over 2005. Time will tell, but I see a major league starting staff now where two years ago I saw a mockery and last year a travesty.

savafan
03-21-2006, 01:50 AM
I like this trade, and I'm a huge Wily Mo fan.

doug flynn
03-21-2006, 05:36 AM
If Arroyo slots between Harang and Claussen, it should give us a punchers chance in 60% vs.40% of this rotation's starts. That's worth WMP's 35 home runs to me.

Let's see what goes north before lamenting the right side of the infield. I expect other moves, as teams trim their rosters, and it won't take much to improve that situation.

RedFanAlways1966
03-21-2006, 07:40 AM
Pitching, pitching, pitching. Good pitching or bad pitching? Gotta start somewhere. OFs do not win divisons or get a team into the playoffs. Pitching, pitching, pitching.

:thumbup:

puca
03-21-2006, 07:57 AM
Really don't like it. Not enough to help this team contend this year. By this time next year we will be hoping someone will take Bronson off of our hands. In my opinion he is nothing but an average pitcher at the end of his good 2-year run. Think Elmer Dessens (post-Reds).

We got older and lost potential, not the right direction for a team that is still light years away from contending.

Raisor
03-21-2006, 10:21 AM
I can live with it. I'm not a big WMP fan anyway. Just doesn't get on base enough for me. (I've longed predicted that he ends up in Japan for a couple years soon). I think Arrooroorooroo will be easier to flip at the deadline for some more arms to a contender.

flyer85
03-21-2006, 10:44 AM
I think Arrooroorooroo will be easier to flip at the deadline for some more arms to a contender.seems like all we flip are burgers. Need to start flippin some steaks.

MikeS21
03-21-2006, 11:06 AM
After thinking about this trade over the last 22 hours or so, I still have to vote "I Don't Know."

I do know that Wily Mo had loads of potential. But the same could be said about virtually any player who makes it as far as the big leagues. I cannot annoint him a future superstar based on a half year performance in 2004. And apart from that stretch in 2004, Pena never showed any signs of getting better. I cannot imagine that given WMP's woeful OBP, that Theo was going to cough any real pitching value up.

As far as BA coming to the Reds, he wouldn't have been my first choice. But no team is going to give up a #1 or #2 pitcher in return for Pena. In fact, I don't see WK being able to improve the pitching at all unless he is willing to part with Adam Dunn. (I don't see any other GM's giving up decent pitching for ANY of the Reds' spare parts.)

And I am appalled at just how bad Arroyo's numbers are on paper. But then reality hits and I see that his terrible numbers last year would have been made him the third best pitcher on this team not far behind Harang and Claussen - far better than both Milton and the guy we got from the Angels (his name escapes me at the moment).

The worst part of this is that Hattesburg is the new 1B. I would love to see him become a "Joe Randa" and be moved for prospects come June or July.

I just going to hold off a while to see what happens before making up my mind about this.

ThatsAStrike
03-21-2006, 11:21 AM
I like this trade. I think Wily Mo is quite a bit over-valued by a lot of Reds fans. Sure he can hit impressive home runs at a pretty good rate, but what else could he do? He can't field, can't run the bases (when he manages to get on base), can't seem to stay healthy for any long periods of time. Heck, his home run rate versus right-handed pitching really isn't all that impressive (32 HRs in 562 ABs - not bad but not impressive). Wily Mo just seems like a very one-dimensional player to me. In fact I'd almost call him half-dimensional since he really only shines against left-handed pitching. Sure, who knows what the future will bring for Wily Mo? But right now, I just don't see him as being all that valuable.