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View Full Version : Arroyo - how will he pitch?



RedsManRick
03-20-2006, 03:30 PM
Leaving aside the actual "was this a good deal" question, can we get some people's takes on what we can actually expect from Bronson over the next year? Much has been made in the other threads about his crazy low K/9 last year. However, even then he showed solid control and durability, worked deep in to games (especially by Reds standards), held runners very well, and kept the ball in the park.

I don't have the time to dig up his DIPS numbers, etc., but what are some reasonable projections for him this year? Are Harang '05 like numbers a fair estimate? I'm still not sure what I think about the trade, but a league average starter for the next 3 years sure beats whoever he replaces...

flyer85
03-20-2006, 04:08 PM
I don't care. PECOTA kinds of likes him but I am too POed at the thought of Hatteberg and Womack on the right side of the infield.

jmcclain19
03-20-2006, 04:11 PM
Here is his PECOTA

13-10, 34G, 31GS, 200.3IP, 215H, 49BB, 120K, 25HR, 1.31WHIP, 4.43ERA

I'd be pretty happy with those numbers

Ravenlord
03-20-2006, 04:16 PM
doesn't PECOTA adjust numbers for stadium effects? if so, wouldn't those numbers be slightly better pitching in Cincinnati as oppsosed to Boston?

M2
03-20-2006, 04:27 PM
Arroyo - how will he pitch?

Overhand


doesn't PECOTA adjust numbers for stadium effects? if so, wouldn't those numbers be slightly better pitching in Cincinnati as oppsosed to Boston?

I'm guessing the park-adjust would involve dropping the OB totals and raising the SLG.

lollipopcurve
03-20-2006, 04:29 PM
I'm guessing the park-adjust would involve dropping the OB totals and raising the SLG.

I assume we should expect a league adjustment too???

M2
03-20-2006, 04:30 PM
I assume we should expect a league adjustment too???

Good point. DHs do hit better than pitchers.

Reds1
03-20-2006, 05:09 PM
I don't care. PECOTA kinds of likes him but I am too POed at the thought of Hatteberg and Womack on the right side of the infield.

Probably not what you are wanting, but I bet Aurlia gets a lot of time at 1B. That's why he's been playing there. Who knows, but I agree with you on Womack. I wish we didn't sign him.

registerthis
03-20-2006, 05:30 PM
Probably not what you are wanting, but I bet Aurlia gets a lot of time at 1B. That's why he's been playing there. Who knows, but I agree with you on Womack. I wish we didn't sign him.

I'd rather see Aurilia there than Hatteberg, but good Lord what a choice to have to make.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 05:45 PM
Probably not what you are wanting, but I bet Aurlia gets a lot of time at 1B. PECOTA likes Aurilia a lot better than hatteberg.

Heath
03-20-2006, 06:17 PM
I wonder if WayneK wants to play Womack to see him crash hard to prove a point.

He's gone after this year (or earlier).

reds44
03-20-2006, 06:41 PM
I wonder if WayneK wants to play Womack to see him crash hard to prove a point.

He's gone after this year (or earlier).
What would that prove?

He isn't going to try and crash anyone. Sometimes 1 player is the difference between a L and W, and we are going to have to battle for every W.

captainmorgan07
03-20-2006, 06:57 PM
arroyo should do well as limited national leaguers have saw him pitch

max venable
03-20-2006, 07:42 PM
PECOTA likes Aurilia a lot better than hatteberg.
Honestly, doesn't Aurilia at 1B pretty much equate to Sean Casey at 1B?

Aurilia: .282 avg. 14 HR, 68 RBI in 114 games

Casey: .312 avg. 9 HR, 58 RBI in 137 games

I take it back...looks like Aurilia is an upgrade. ;)

Caveat Emperor
03-20-2006, 07:55 PM
Honestly, doesn't Aurilia at 1B pretty much equate to Sean Casey at 1B?

Aurilia: .282 avg. 14 HR, 68 RBI in 114 games

Casey: .312 avg. 9 HR, 58 RBI in 137 games

I take it back...looks like Aurilia is an upgrade. ;)

His Value Over Replacement Hugger is significantly less than Casey's and Smiles/9 is a definate regression.

Falls City Beer
03-20-2006, 08:16 PM
I'll say Arroyo's line looks something like this:

30 GS
210 IP
220 H
50 BB
150 K
4.25 ERA
.740 OPSA

TC81190
03-20-2006, 08:18 PM
Arroyo - how will he pitch?


Bad.




BAD.

KronoRed
03-20-2006, 08:20 PM
He'll throw some pitches, win some, lose some.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 08:34 PM
I'll say Arroyo's line looks something like this:

30 GS
210 IP
220 H
50 BB
150 K
4.25 ERA
.740 OPSA

If he does that then I would consider it a solid trade.

Heath
03-20-2006, 08:49 PM
If he does that then I would consider it a solid trade.

If he does that, I'll dance a jig.

Because that sure beats whatever snot we toss out there before the deal.

Reds Nd2
03-20-2006, 09:01 PM
doesn't PECOTA adjust numbers for stadium effects? if so, wouldn't those numbers be slightly better pitching in Cincinnati as oppsosed to Boston?

The Davenport Translations used do compare the league and team factors but I'm not sure they use park factors. Even if they do, I'm not convinced Arroyo will pitch better in GABP given his righty-lefty splits. And remember, PECOTA was forcast for Arroyo pitching in Boston, not Cincinnati. Here are the '05 Park Indices per Bill James.

For the following stats: 100 is neutral - Under 100 favor the pitcher - Over 100 favors the hitters.

2005 Park Indices


Park HR LHB-AVG LHB-HR
Fenway Park 99 101 84
GABP 121 111 127

If the dudes pitching peripherals (K/9, K/BB, G/F) fall in line with his '05 numbers, he's in for a rude awakening at GABP. At best, they follow his '04 numbers and then he's still a #4 or 5 on a good staff.

GAC
03-20-2006, 09:04 PM
If he does that, I'll dance a jig.

Because that sure beats whatever snot we toss out there before the deal.

And that "snot" was possibly gonna be guys like Gosling, Standridge, or Germano. YUCK!

GAC
03-20-2006, 09:05 PM
If he does that, I'll dance a jig.

Because that sure beats whatever snot we toss out there before the deal.

And that "snot" was possibly gonna be guys like Gosling, Standridge, or Germano. YUCK!

I agree. If Arroyo puts up numbers similar to what FCB posts, then we should all be dancing a jig.

Reds Nd2
03-20-2006, 09:39 PM
I agree. If Arroyo puts up numbers similar to what FCB posts, then we should all be dancing a jig.

If Arroyo puts up 7.0 innings a start with a WHIP of 1.30 and still maintains an ERA of 4.25, I'll crap myself and then do a jig.

TC81190
03-20-2006, 09:47 PM
If he does that, I'll dance a jig.

Because that sure beats whatever snot we toss out there before the deal.

Aaron Harang.

Falls City Beer
03-20-2006, 10:06 PM
If Arroyo puts up 7.0 innings a start with a WHIP of 1.30 and still maintains an ERA of 4.25, I'll crap myself and then do a jig.

Yeah, I just thought about it: he'll probably not average 7 innings a start, but probably 6 2/3, a more modesr improvement over last year's 6.41 innings per start.

And I see no reason whatever that Arroyo can't throw up a 1.30 WHIP .740 OPSA in the NL Central.

TOBTTReds
03-20-2006, 10:56 PM
Aaron Harang.

That is sad that we can only mention one pitcher better than Arroyo.

This is definitely an upgrade for our staff. He is replacing Mike Gosling or Justin Germano!

Also consider that he had to face the Yankees a few times (haven't checked the number of games) and the Orioles. I know there is a league adjustment, but there is also a division adjustment necessary too.

Krusty
03-20-2006, 10:59 PM
If anything, Arroyo pushes Dave Williams to the fifth spot in the rotation.

Reds Nd2
03-21-2006, 09:25 AM
Yeah, I just thought about it: he'll probably not average 7 innings a start, but probably 6 2/3, a more modesr improvement over last year's 6.41 innings per start.

And I see no reason whatever that Arroyo can't throw up a 1.30 WHIP .740 OPSA in the NL Central.

I was just trying to be funny but I hope your right about Arroyo. He switched leagues which should help but GABP isn't as pitcher friendly as Fenway and that's going to hurt him, especially against left handed batters. If his peripherals don't improve from '05, he's going to have a very difficult time avoiding a 5.00+ ERA.

Reds Nd2
03-21-2006, 09:33 AM
If anything, Arroyo pushes Dave Williams to the fifth spot in the rotation.

What about Wilson? I was thinking this move makes it easier for the Reds to put Milton in the bullpen.

registerthis
03-21-2006, 10:03 AM
What about Wilson? I was thinking this move makes it easier for the Reds to put Milton in the bullpen.

That's my thought too. A couple of Milton starts with people straining their necks watching the balls shooting out of GABP might send him packing to the 'pen.

RedsManRick
03-21-2006, 10:26 AM
His splits are pretty weird. He's money versus righties (.647) but struggles against lefties (.793 OPS). However, Fenway is tough on lefties, power wise, and very favorable for righties. It's almost like Arroyo is a ROOGY if there could be such a guy. With GABP a HR haven, especially for lefties, lookout. But that said, he should continue to dominate righties.

flyer85
03-21-2006, 10:42 AM
His splits are pretty weird. He's money versus righties (.647) but struggles against lefties (.793 OPS). not really weird when you consider he lacks a quality changeup and his best pitch is a curveball.

TeamSelig
03-21-2006, 11:07 AM
K/9

2003: 7.27
2004: 7.15
2005: 4.38

1.85 K/BB in 2005, compared to a 3.02 in '04 and 3.50 in '03

What happened?

Comparing last year to his '04 season, he has a higher ERA, more HRs allowed, more walks, less strike outs, more Hits allowed than innings pitched, and a higher OPSA. He used to be an above average pitcher, but now I'm not so sure.

My prediction is that he pitches close to 200 IP, 115 K, 50 BB, 28 HRs allowed, 4.67 ERA.

osuceltic
03-21-2006, 11:14 AM
I'm curious about the GAB's lefty-friendly numbers. Do those take into account the fact that the Reds had two of the best left-handed hitters in the game playing there 81 times? Junior and Dunn have to inflate those numbers somewhat, don't they? I'm not denying it's a favorable park for lefties, but do those two lefties make it seem a little more favorable than it really is? I honestly don't know, so if I'm wrong, let me know.

Arroyo is a pretty good pitcher. Some of his numbers are a little inflated by some really, REALLY bad outings. But those 20 quality starts are pretty compelling. And he pitched a lot against the Yankees, a team that had his number. He's not going to see them anymore.

Look at some of the contracts pitchers have gotten. Look at their production. I think Arroyo, who is at least a league average starter, is an absolute bargain. And those guys don't come cheaply on the market. The fact that we got him for a guy who has never been an everyday player, hits for a low average, doesn't make contact, doesn't get on base, is a poor base-runner and a lousy defender seems like a pretty good deal. He does one thing well -- hit the ball a long way. So that will help on the occasions that he does it. But Arroyo will help every fifth day.

Sorry ... I'm getting into a trade analysis. Suffice it to say I think Arroyo will be very solid and often very good. I think the Reds are closer to competing than they were yesterday, and positive steps are good things. There are more moves to be made.

TeamSelig
03-21-2006, 11:20 AM
I don't think it was a horrible trade, just a bad trade. I would have been more pleased if they kept their cash, and sent us a decent prospect in return (nothing major either, just something of value)

flyer85
03-21-2006, 11:22 AM
I'm curious about the GAB's lefty-friendly numbers. Do those take into account the fact that the Reds had two of the best left-handed hitters in the game playing there 81 times? Yep. It means those two guys thumped a lot better at GABP than they did on the road and that other teams LH hitters did as well.

Reds Nd2
03-21-2006, 12:55 PM
I'm curious about the GAB's lefty-friendly numbers. Do those take into account the fact that the Reds had two of the best left-handed hitters in the game playing there 81 times? Junior and Dunn have to inflate those numbers somewhat, don't they? I'm not denying it's a favorable park for lefties, but do those two lefties make it seem a little more favorable than it really is? I honestly don't know, so if I'm wrong, let me know.

The teams makeup doesn't skew the numbers like your thinking it would.

From the 2006 Bill James Handbook:
Park Indices are calculated in a way that neutralizes the effect of a team's makeup and isolates the effects of the park. This isolation is figured by comparing what both the team and it's opponents accomplished at home, and comparing that to what the same team and it's oponents accomplished on the road.

To calculate the Park Index for Home Runs in a given ballpark we take the total Home Runs of both the home team and it's opponents at the ballpark and compare it to the total Home Runs of the home team and it's opponenets in other games. We then divide each of those totals by the At Bats in the equivalent situations so that if there are more at bats in either situation the index is not skewed. The result is then multiplied by 100 to yield the familiar form.

The Park Indices for Doubles, Triples, Walks, Strikeouts, and Home Runs by lefties and righties are determined like Home Runs, above - relative to At Bats. Indices of At Bats, Runs, Hits, Errors, and Infield Fielding Errors (E-Infield) are calculated relative to Games. Average Indices are calculated as-is, as these are already relative to At Bats.

A park with an index of exactly 100 is neutral and can be said to have no effect on that particular stat. An index above 100 means the ballpark favors that statistic. For example, if a park has a Home Run Index of 120, it was 20% easier to hit Home Runs in that park then the rest of the parks in that teams league.

Interleague games are not included in the underlying Park Index data, both because the interleague schedules are significantly imbalanced, and because the designated hitter rule, only used in American League parks, would artificially skew all AL parks towards appearing to be hitters parks and all NL parks towards appearing to be pitcher parks.

KearnsyEars
03-21-2006, 08:02 PM
I'm predicting a Milton type year....from the right side.

KronoRed
03-21-2006, 09:09 PM
I'm predicting a Milton type year....from the right side.
At least we'll have both :help: