PDA

View Full Version : Gammons take on the trade



klw
03-20-2006, 03:45 PM
I don't have Insider status. Has anyone read Gammon's blog entry analyzing the trade? Just Curious what it says.

wolfboy
03-20-2006, 03:54 PM
Nothing earth shattering. Highly unlikely that Arroyo would be the Reds best starter.


The Reds had to trade for pitching, and they were not going to part with Austin Kearns or Adam Dunn unless they got a Jon Lester, or two. Bronson Arroyo, who threw a career-high 205 1/3 innings last season, posted 14 wins and was 10th in the American League in quality starts -- will be the Reds' best starter.
And while Wily Mo Pena is a .303 career on-base guy who sometimes plays out of control, he is still only 24, and about to begin learning the game with David Ortiz. Boston is not usually a tools-oriented organization, but one thing they lack through the minor leagues is right-handed power, and Pena is a project whose skills are worth the effort to hone.

Right-handed corner power bats are hard to find, and Pena has awesome power and remarkable speed. The Red Sox were looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder, and Pena can platoon with Trot Nixon; Pena had an .881 OPS against left-handed pitching last season (Mike Sweeney and Andruw Jones were .877, Manny Ramirez .885). He can fill in for Coco Crisp and Ramirez, when necessary.

The Red Sox hope this is a deal for today, giving them a boost against lefties and cutting down on the lefties coming out of the bullpen to face Nixon -- and for the future. Pena loves to play, wants to learn and because he was out of options and in the big leagues at 20, his development has been seriously retarded. Boston hopes it has another Jesse Barfield, who after the age of 23 and with almost an identical number of at-bats, had a .309 on-base percentage, the same exact .780 OPS and 45 homers, in contrast to Pena's 51.

Nixon can become a free agent at season's end, so if Pena develops, they have added a 26-year-old center fielder and a 24-year-old power bat in right field.

The fact that former Reds GM and current Nationals GM Jim Bowden has spent more than 1,000 hours trying to reacquire Pena speaks for his character.

Pena's career OPS at Great American Ball Park is .875, .741 on the road. Arroyo's OPS against was .790 at Fenway, .665 on the road. However, going from one offensive park to another is difficult to quantify.

guttle11
03-20-2006, 03:56 PM
The fact that former Reds GM and current Nationals GM Jim Bowden has spent more than 1,000 hours trying to reacquire Pena speaks for his character.

Did Gammons really write that? That's hilarious.

wolfboy
03-20-2006, 03:57 PM
Did Gammons really write that? That's hilarious.

Who else besides Gammons would write that?

KronoRed
03-20-2006, 04:00 PM
Best starter? I'd take Harang every day of the week.

LincolnparkRed
03-20-2006, 04:03 PM
Best starter? I'd take Harang every day of the week.

You know Gammons can't say that the Reds paid the tithe to the Red sox by giving up a good player for scrap as all teams should do when trading with the Red Sox or Yankees. He's gotta come up with something to try and even it out.

lollipopcurve
03-20-2006, 04:04 PM
Boston hopes it has another Jesse Barfield

A hopeful comparison if we're talking offense, and absolutely delusional if we're talking defense. Barfield was a great rightfielder. I think Wily Mo will struggle mightily if they put him in right in Fenway. It's a big, odd space.

LincolnparkRed
03-20-2006, 04:09 PM
A hopeful comparison if we're talking offense, and absolutely delusional if we're talking defense. Barfield was a great rightfielder. I think Wily Mo will struggle mightily if they put him in right in Fenway. It's a big, odd space.

You should have seen him slam into the wall near Pesky's pole last June, he had the ball until he hit that short fence. The ball wound up about two rows in the stands.

TOBTTReds
03-20-2006, 04:36 PM
I want to see him in left with the wall.

MartyFan
03-20-2006, 08:10 PM
Pants probably told Gammons he had spent that kind of time trying to get Pena...then again he has Sorianon playing in his OF...oh, no he doesn't.

TC81190
03-20-2006, 08:11 PM
TC81190's take on the trade: SUCK!!

kbrake
03-20-2006, 08:17 PM
TC81190's take on the trade: SUCK!!


Yeah, casue a 100 loss season would have been much better. I know Paul Wilson, Michael Gosling, and Justin Germano would be much better options then Arroyo every fifth day. Some of you must have really had a thing for Wily Mo, not sure why, but your feelings I guess. This team is better today then it was yesterday, BP might be less exciting but you still will have Milton every fifth day for that.

TC81190
03-20-2006, 08:19 PM
Yeah, casue a 100 loss season would have been much better. I know Paul Wilson, Michael Gosling, and Justin Germano would be much better options then Arroyo every fifth day. Some of you must have really had a thing for Wily Mo, not sure why, but your feelings I guess. This team is better today then it was yesterday, BP might be less exciting but you still will have Milton every fifth day for that.

Cause really, where does this get us? 75 wins as opposed to 70. This season? Arroyo is NOT worth a Pena, ever. Ever.

Heath
03-20-2006, 08:25 PM
Cause really, where does this get us? 75 wins as opposed to 70. This season? Arroyo is NOT worth a Pena, ever. Ever.

Well, sometimes our value and other's value are two different ideals.

I'm in a minority - but I give WayneK credit. It took some "marbles" to do the deal.

Murray Cook did a deal like that once. Took Kurt Stillwell and flipped it into Danny Jackson. That didn't turn out too bad.

BigRed
03-20-2006, 08:26 PM
I like the trade. If we can get 14 wins and 200+ innings out of Arroyo, it will be a great trade. Pena does have a lot of potential and is young, but you have to trade something to get something.

MartyFan
03-20-2006, 08:28 PM
Initially I am 50/50 on the trade but if I leaned one way or the other I lean in favor of it...why?

Krivsky has a pretty good track record of evaluating talent.

kbrake
03-20-2006, 08:33 PM
I hope Pena is a stud in Boston, but thats my heart, my head says he will struggle real bad. He will be a complete train wreck in RF, and Boston will eat him alive. As for Bronson, he is an improvement. I know I know just because he is an improvement to this team doesnt mean much, however Pena was just simply not worth that much and a couple more average seasons of the same from Wily Mo would have made him worth say a Dave Williams.

captainmorgan07
03-20-2006, 08:58 PM
he may nto be our best starter but he sure might be or second best

TC81190
03-20-2006, 10:01 PM
I hope Pena is a stud in Boston, but thats my heart, my head says he will struggle real bad. He will be a complete train wreck in RF, and Boston will eat him alive. As for Bronson, he is an improvement. I know I know just because he is an improvement to this team doesnt mean much, however Pena was just simply not worth that much and a couple more average seasons of the same from Wily Mo would have made him worth say a Dave Williams.

When I think about it you're right. And that makes me feel bad. Reral bad. I'm a Wily fan. Just a really cool guy on the field, someone you enjoy watching, like a gentle giant. :cry:

blumj
03-20-2006, 10:10 PM
I think there's a possibility that Theo's just holding Wily Mo hostage, and that he's already started sending Bowden ransom notes. But I have no real reason to believe that, just a feeling that having something Bowden really, really wants can be very useful.

remdog
03-20-2006, 10:13 PM
Actually, with Willy Mo penciled in LF for a year, rolling the dice that he would have a solid to big year was not much of a gamble compared to the difference between finishing 5th or 6th (Arroyo may not even make a difference there). Why not give him 500 AB's and see where you are when the dust settles?

Nothing to lose, everything to gain.

I will say that if this trade had netted a couple of highly rated pitching prospects I'd be all for it. But, the way it went, it's a waste IMO.

Rem

reds1869
03-20-2006, 10:13 PM
When I think about it you're right. And that makes me feel bad. Reral bad. I'm a Wily fan. Just a really cool guy on the field, someone you enjoy watching, like a gentle giant. :cry:

Which is why so many people are upset. Unfortunately being pleasant does not win ball games. This was at worst a mediocre trade, at best a very shrewd one.

tts1stros
03-20-2006, 10:32 PM
I will say that if this trade had netted a couple of highly rated pitching prospects I'd be all for it. But, the way it went, it's a waste IMO.

But no one would give you a couple of highly rated pitching prospects. (At least, no one not named Steve Phillips.) He's not worth that much.

princeton
03-20-2006, 10:44 PM
Murray Cook did a deal like that once. Took Kurt Stillwell and flipped it into Danny Jackson. That didn't turn out too bad.

Jackson had Cy Young upside. Broglio, er, Arroyo doesn't.

remdog
03-20-2006, 11:01 PM
But no one would give you a couple of highly rated pitching prospects. (At least, no one not named Steve Phillips.) He's not worth that much.

First of all, Wily Mo still has a big upside potential even though he's spent the last 3 years as a part-time player and still shown terrific play at times. Wily Mo's performance when he has played has been exceptional, given his particular circumstances. To get a couple of highly rated prospects who have never yet set foot in the Bigs is not a stretch, IMO.

But hey, if no one else wants to pony up some bonified prospects, I'm fine with that. WMP was scheduled to get 500 AB's this year. Hopefully, I shine him up this year and get the guys I want next winter. After all, Arroyo isn't going to make an iota of difference when it comes to winning the pennant this year.

Rem

Heath
03-20-2006, 11:29 PM
Jackson had Cy Young upside. Broglio, er, Arroyo doesn't.

Princeton, hindsight is 20/20, but I would guess if there was a redszone.com when Kurt Stillwell (high upside prospect at a crowded position) got traded for a guy who was coming off an 18 loss season where he gave up 100 ER in 224 innings and had an ERA above 4., I would guess that the new GM at the time would have been reamed a new one.

DJ did ok for about a year and half. More than Kurt Stillwell did.

Murray Cook took some stones to make a deal Bill Bergisch wouldn't. It made 1988 exciting, and it helped during 1990 as well.

princeton
03-20-2006, 11:41 PM
I would guess if there was a redszone.com when Kurt Stillwell (high upside prospect at a crowded position) got traded for a guy who was coming off an 18 loss season where he gave up 100 ER in 224 innings and had an ERA above 4., I would guess that the new GM at the time would have been reamed a new one.

If anyone's Danny Jackson in the present deal, it'd be WMP-- same age, same experience, same upside. But quite a bit more risk.

Heath
03-20-2006, 11:45 PM
If anyone's Danny Jackson in the present deal, it'd be WMP-- same age, same experience, same upside. But quite a bit more risk.

I'm looking at the deal from the standpoint of a new GM trying to make a splash by dealing with a percieved glut of one position to shore up a weakness.

This isn't a Captain Ahab move here. That was Tony Womack.

harangatang
03-20-2006, 11:46 PM
First of all, Wily Mo still has a big upside potential even though he's spent the last 3 years as a part-time player and still shown terrific play at times. Wily Mo's performance when he has played has been exceptional, given his particular circumstances. To get a couple of highly rated prospects who have never yet set foot in the Bigs is not a stretch, IMO.

But hey, if no one else wants to pony up some bonified prospects, I'm fine with that. WMP was scheduled to get 500 AB's this year. Hopefully, I shine him up this year and get the guys I want next winter. After all, Arroyo isn't going to make an iota of difference when it comes to winning the pennant this year.

Rem

The Cincinnati pitching is in such bad shape I could really care less if Wily Mo turns into the next superstar. The point is Wily Mo has potential now, and has had potential since he was traded to the Reds from the Yanks. That's it, potential. I'm glad Krivsky has enough intestinal fortitude to make a move now. By the next offseason comes the Reds might be able to get a frontline starter, say Barry Zito. This is because you are showing other pitchers that you are willing to make the club have a chance at winning. Keeping Wily Mo Pena in hopes of getting 2 unproven pitching prospects shows prospective pitchers you are no different than the old regime of Lindner/DanO. Arroyo won't help the Reds win the pennant this year but it may help this organization get a pennant in the next couple of years.

remdog
03-21-2006, 12:01 AM
The Cincinnati pitching is in such bad shape I could really care less if Wily Mo turns into the next superstar.....By the next offseason comes the Reds might be able to get a frontline starter....This is because you are showing other pitchers that you are willing to make the club have a chance at winning.

You don't care if a guy turns into a superstar because trading him shows other players you want to win? That's a big leap in logic there, IMO.

Rem

harangatang
03-21-2006, 12:39 AM
You don't care if a guy turns into a superstar because trading him shows other players you want to win? That's a big leap in logic there, IMO.

Rem

What good does WMP do for the Reds, absolutely nothing, what good does 40-50 homeruns in a lineup with no pitching, absolutely nothing. You act like the Reds got Jimmy Haynes for WMP, when in fact we got a servicable starter who pitched in the toughest division in baseball the past 2 years with success. Is Bronson Arroyo as good as a frontline starter such as Barry Zito, no, but something needs to be done to show prospective free agents that the Reds care about winning. With a core of Harang/Claussen/Arroyo it shows someone like Zito that the Reds have a chance at winning and pitchers will want to come here. Holding on to a guy with potential and no proven results in hopes he will blossom to obtain two unproven prospects is a leap in logic.

Superdude
03-21-2006, 12:40 AM
I love how people are happy with the deal just because Krivsky did something. We must still be used to Dan O'. Just making a trade to show you want to win is not always a good thing everybody!

harangatang
03-21-2006, 12:56 AM
I love how people are happy with the deal just because Krivsky did something. We must still be used to Dan O'. Just making a trade to show you want to win is not always a good thing everybody!

I think you're still used to DanO and the mindset, let's wait until next year. The Reds have been waiting since next year since 1999 and Krivsky has the gonads to stop it. I don't understand how sitting around and doing nothing shows everyone you want to win. Apparently all the FA starting pitchers have caught the drift the Reds don't have a shot at winning and pitchers like Matt Clement go elsewhere. The Reds made a good trade and got a proven commoditity that the Reds have a shortage of.

Nugget
03-21-2006, 01:19 AM
The main prblem here seems to be the value people are equating to WMP. Those who think it was a bad trade think the WMP could have got a #1 if he had a good year. And that's it, its a big IF for WMP to have a good year. A good year would also have to show that he can at least be serviceable in the field. If not his value is not going to bring in a #1 or even a #2. WMP for a #3 is par value at this point. There is no guarantee that WMP would improve during the year. And even Boston aren't going to give him a starting position.

buckeyenut
03-21-2006, 07:02 AM
I am going to guess that in 4 months, Arroyo is worth more on the trade market than Wily Mo would have been. Cheap, still young, if he puts up decent numbers at all, we ought to be able to flip him for a couple of good prospects to a contender. Wily Mo might have been tougher to flip, but everyone always needs SP.

That might be the first true test of Krivsky. Can he work the flip properly?

Peyton's Place
03-21-2006, 07:22 AM
I think there's a possibility that Theo's just holding Wily Mo hostage, and that he's already started sending Bowden ransom notes. But I have no real reason to believe that, just a feeling that having something Bowden really, really wants can be very useful.
That is an interesting point considering Soriano's refusal to play the OF in DC. Could Pena move to DC in a deal for Soriano, who could go to BOS and play 2b?

michst
03-21-2006, 11:03 AM
We have him for 3 years - pretty cheap too. He is a solid number 3. Why would we want to flip him for prospects that we hope may turn out to be a #3?

We now have Arrayo, Harrang and Claussen. While none of them are #1s (only a handful of teams have true #1s) we have 3 serviceable #2 or #3s. So we have 3/5s of a solid rotation for the next 3 years. Seems like its all a step in the right direction.

Sea Ray
03-21-2006, 11:16 AM
Sure it'd be great to trade him for Homer Bailey like prospects but I'm telling you, he's not worth that to other GMs; very few players are. If you are an advocate for trading him for prospects, be prepared for prospects like Bong, Nelson and Germano in return. If you think we'll get someone else's Homer Bailey you're living in a dream world.

dnitzsch
03-21-2006, 12:09 PM
I'm against the trade because my dog is named Wily Mo....no way in hell I'm changing his name to Bronson (although it doesn't sound too bad) or putting him in Red Sox gear. I got him on WMP's Bobble Head night so the name was obvious. Here he is riding shotgun: http://www.geocities.com/dn129693/WilyMoShotgun.JPG

blumj
03-21-2006, 12:21 PM
Speaking of names, though, the Red Sox now have Wily Mo, Coco, and Trot. That's some collection of OF names.

dnitzsch
03-21-2006, 12:24 PM
Speaking of names, though, the Red Sox now have Wily Mo, Coco, and Trot. That's some collection of OF names.

Coco Crisp. I love it. What jokers his parents must be.

Marc D
03-21-2006, 12:41 PM
My heart burn with this trade is this fantasy about winning now. A team with BA as its 2nd best pitcher, SH as its 1B and Woemack/Aurilia seeing significant PT isn't going to win anything. You can't build for the future and win now. You must pick one, develop a good plan and stick with it. The current construction of the Reds isn't capable of winning now so I would have hoped it made the FO's decison a little easier. Appearently it did not.

Why not let WMP and AK get 500-600 AB's no matter what and see what you've got to trade then? Even if WMP has a bad year you'l still have buyers for his potential. If he's worth a Bronson Arroyo now he'd be worth one later at the very least but at least you give yourself a chance to get more.

IMO you just gave away a chance at a 3 run homer in order to lay down a sac bunt in a game your losing by 5 early(otherwise known as a Milton start).

I just see this as the opposite style of Dan O but the same result. My confidence in the new regime is shaken already.

ochre
03-21-2006, 12:42 PM
I'm looking at the deal from the standpoint of a new GM trying to make a splash by dealing with a percieved glut of one position to shore up a weakness.

This isn't a Captain Ahab move here. That was Tony Womack.
But pitching is the white whale.

elfmanvt07
03-21-2006, 12:49 PM
When I think about it you're right. And that makes me feel bad. Reral bad. I'm a Wily fan. Just a really cool guy on the field, someone you enjoy watching, like a gentle giant. :cry:

Well. I liked watching him at the PLATE.

PTBNL
03-21-2006, 01:26 PM
Best starter? I'd take Harang every day of the week.

There's no way he's starting over Harang, #2 guy I could see, but I will probably get killed here for saying that. :)

Sea Ray
03-21-2006, 02:02 PM
My heart burn with this trade is this fantasy about winning now. A team with BA as its 2nd best pitcher, SH as its 1B and Woemack/Aurilia seeing significant PT isn't going to win anything. You can't build for the future and win now. You must pick one, develop a good plan and stick with it. The current construction of the Reds isn't capable of winning now so I would have hoped it made the FO's decison a little easier. Appearently it did not.



If your problem is that BA doesn't build for the future you may get your wish. If he pitches for us like he did last year for the Bosox he'll be as marketable for a deadline trade as Wily Mo. It would not surprise me a bit, especially if he continues to whine about wanting to pitch for a contender

Marc D
03-21-2006, 04:25 PM
If your problem is that BA doesn't build for the future you may get your wish. If he pitches for us like he did last year for the Bosox he'll be as marketable for a deadline trade as Wily Mo. It would not surprise me a bit, especially if he continues to whine about wanting to pitch for a contender


I may be completely off but it just seems to me you have everything to gain as far as Pena's trade value by playing him everyday and nothing to lose.

Even if he has a bad year he'll hit enough titanic HR's and be young enough to where you can still make a trade like this for him.

I like Pena and didn't want to see him go but my main concern is they just pulled the trigger too soon. BA isn't going to keep this team from mediocrity no matter what. IMO all they did was pass on a chance to reap a bigger reward from WMP.

kbrake
03-21-2006, 04:50 PM
As far as I'm concerned both Wily Mo and Kearns have had plenty of chances to up their trade value and over the course of 162 game schedule both have fallen on their face. When all the Clement for Kearns rumors were circling I said it a hundred times and I will say it again the 'potential' effect will wear off with these two. I am just glad we finally moved one before his value got to the point where he was worth Dave Ross.

Heath
03-21-2006, 04:54 PM
But pitching is the white whale.

Ochre - that's been the case since 1966.

I see the Reds searching for pitching like Monty Python searching for the Holy Grail.

Sea Ray
03-21-2006, 05:19 PM
I may be completely off but it just seems to me you have everything to gain as far as Pena's trade value by playing him everyday and nothing to lose.

Even if he has a bad year he'll hit enough titanic HR's and be young enough to where you can still make a trade like this for him.

I like Pena and didn't want to see him go but my main concern is they just pulled the trigger too soon. BA isn't going to keep this team from mediocrity no matter what. IMO all they did was pass on a chance to reap a bigger reward from WMP.

I hear what you're saying and you may be right. I think the risk in playing Wily Mo is that he plays so poorly as to be benched on this OF talented roster. This happened to Kearns last year and it could happen to Wily Mo. If that happens you're trying to trade a 4th outfielder and 4th outfielders don't get you pitchers like Arroyo.