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redsmetz
03-21-2006, 10:17 AM
Here's Lonnie Wheeler's column in today's Cincinnati Post:


Dealing budding slugger Pena a risk worth taking

Column by The Post's Lonnie Wheeler

They traded the right guy for the best they could do. Wily Mo Pena may hit 60 home runs in some not-distant season, but a general manager cannot allow himself to be hogtied by the potential of a conspicuously imperfect player.

It comes down to scouting, which Wayne Krivsky, the Reds' new guy, has done a lot of in recent years. So informed, he was able to peer over the vast shoulders and recognize that Pena, for all his spectacular power, remains a can-miss prospect. The big fellow demonstrates it with each fly-ball adventure and every awkward strikeout.

An athlete like Pena can put fear in the other team, and even more in his own. No GM wants to be the guy who traded Babe Ruth. The best ones are sufficiently self-assured to act on the probabilities that they calculate with discerning eyes and seasoned judgment.

In the essential arithmetic of the Reds, Pena's number was up. The team needed pitching more than it needed him. Had he been immobilized by the possibility that Pena will become a more complete ballplayer, Krivsky, in the tradition of more timid executives, would have turned down Bronson Arroyo for his starting left fielder. He chose, instead, to accept the cardinal commodity that was being offered, rather generously, for the Wily Mo we know.

Some guys are just ballplayers. Pena isn't one of those. The young slugger, at 24, is not without prodigious gifts, chief among them being the ability to send baseballs far out of ballparks when met squarely; but in his sport, the more fundamental skill is the meeting squarely. It's the command of the game, the instinct to adjust to clever pitches and twisting line drives and sudden scenarios. On those accounts, Pena's upside is seriously compromised.

Credit Krivsky for the courage to act on that sober truth and suppress the dread of what Pena's brute strength might enable him to one day do. Credit Krivsky for making a deal that Cincinnati badly needed.

His eager owner, Bob Castellini, has been spinning optimistic takes on the Reds' pitching staff; but Krivsky knew better. So, deep down, did Castellini. Especially after Saturday.

On that unsettling afternoon, two of the Reds' new pitchers started games simultaneously. Dave Williams, the dividend for Sean Casey and an immediate member of the Cincinnati rotation, surrendered eight earned runs in just over three innings against the Braves. Michael Gosling, once the leading candidate to occupy the fifth starting slot while Paul Wilson works his way back, gave up the same number while recording just one out against the Pirates. Meanwhile, over the first three weeks of the Grapefruit season, Wilson and Eric Milton have pitched just two-thirds of an inning between them.

Suddenly, the need was so blatantly urgent that somebody had to go. Adam Dunn would have fetched a better pitcher than Arroyo, but a Dunn deal would have sent away a singular player and severely lessened the everyday lineup. With Pena, it isn't necessarily so.

His departure from the outfield strengthens it defensively, which wouldn't have been the case if Austin Kearns had been the traded player. Without Pena - with Dunn back in left field and Scott Hatteberg (a prior and forward-looking purchase on Krivsky's part) at first base - manager Jerry Narron, a defensive kind of dude and big fan of little things, can tinker with his several professionals, putting to better use some combination of Ryan Freel, Tony Womack, Quinton McCracken and Matt Kata.

So it's all good if Arroyo can pitch. He is a reasonable return for a player of Pena's unpredictability, a solid starter on the rise - his last two seasons have been his best - and arriving in his prime. The same, of course, could have been said last year of Milton, and we know how that worked out; but Arroyo is less expensive and more likely to keep the ball in the county.

A lanky right-hander who records grunge-rock guitar and was actually named for Charles Bronson (the tough-guy actor), Arroyo surrendered only five home runs to right-handed batters last year, a curious thing considering he pitched at Fenway Park. He gave up 17 to lefties, which suggests, wrongly, that he surmounted Boston's peculiar parameters.

The fact is, he was a far better pitcher in other places, as attested by his road earned run average, which was fifth-best in the American League. His frequency of walks was 10th best. His opponent batting average was ninth.

He pitched 205 innings. He won 14 games. His 20 quality starts were the most on the Red Sox and one more than Aaron Harang engineered in leading the Reds.

Put it all together, and he was pretty fair.

The same could be said for the trade.

flyer85
03-21-2006, 10:25 AM
It is amazing how every move they make seems to make the 2006 team worse. Unless the fascination with Womack and Hatteberg is nothing but a smokescreen. I for one think they actually believe that those two have value as everyday players.

Well they do have value as everyday players, it's just that it's negative value.

scounts22
03-21-2006, 10:33 AM
I'm all for leaving Dunner at first and putting Denorfia in the outfield. Leave Hatteberg on the bench and sneak Womack on the plane to Boston with Wily Mo!

SunDeck
03-21-2006, 10:41 AM
I'm all for leaving Dunner at first and putting Denorfia in the outfield. Leave Hatteberg on the bench and sneak Womack on the plane to Boston with Wily Mo!
Yeah, they don't know Wily, except that he's big. Krivsky could just say he's so big that he looks like two guys.
:beerme:

redsmetz
03-21-2006, 10:42 AM
It is amazing how every move they make seems to make the 2006 team worse. Unless the fascination with Womack and Hatteberg is nothing but a smokescreen. I for one think they actually believe that those two have value as everyday players.

Well they do have value as everyday players, it's just that it's negative value.

I would respectively disagree. I don't think this move made the 2006 team worse. I think it was absolutely clear last Saturday that this pitching staff was deeply inadequate. It has been improved.

I think too that we all knew that when Hatteberg was signed that something would be in the works. Clearly he is a stopgap. He's not the future at first base (and that may well be Adam Dunn, only time will tell). As for Womack, the Reds are saddled with him or his salary because of the dimwitted trade for him. I suspect, there's still something in the works there too. I don't think it's an accident that the Reds picked up Matt Kata. I don't know what that will be or if it will be, but my guess is, something will happen there. If it doesn't, these are the cards we've been dealt because of the late transfer of the ownership.

joe

flyer85
03-21-2006, 10:48 AM
I would respectively disagree. I don't think this move made the 2006 team worse. I think it was absolutely clear last Saturday that this pitching staff was deeply inadequate. It has been improved.
and the offense has clearly been made worseby replacing WMP with Hatteberg. A lateral move at best.

Project 2006 VORP
WMP +18.3
Hatteberg -4.0

Arroyo 25.6
Germano 6.4

When you consider the poor defense of Hatteberg it is really hard to see how this is anything but a wash for the Reds.

westofyou
03-21-2006, 10:54 AM
It is amazing how every move they make seems to make the 2006 team worse. Worse than what?

The last 5 years has been a blur of bad, losing a bopper without many other skills is hardly the end of an era of great play by the Reds.

What's more amazing (to me) is that Reds fans actually think that it can get worse... this season was circling the drain at the end of last season, any move that didn't include complete total roster revamp would result only in a stray win here or there.

I'll gamble that the Reds are about as bad as they were last year, maybe with better pitching this year and a little worse runs scorced, that said they still smell like rotton milk.

But at least someone started to clean out the fridge, WMP was the first move.

flyer85
03-21-2006, 11:00 AM
But at least someone started to clean out the fridge, WMP was the first move.Trouble was he bypassed all the really stinky cheese. I don't know how you clean your fridge but I don't do it by starting with the stuff that hasn't expired yet and ignoring all the containers that expired years ago.

graveyard
03-21-2006, 11:01 AM
Hatteberg has always been known as a great defensive first baseman. When did he lose his skills?

wheels
03-21-2006, 11:02 AM
Worse than what?

The last 5 years has been a blur of bad, losing a bopper without many other skills is hardly the end of an era of great play by the Reds.

What's more amazing (to me) is that Reds fans actually think that it can get worse... this season was circling the drain at the end of last season, any move that didn't include complete total roster revamp would result only in a stray win here or there.

I'll gamble that the Reds are about as bad as they were last year, maybe with better pitching this year and a little worse runs scorced, that said they still smell like rotton milk.

But at least someone started to clean out the fridge, WMP was the first move.

Thank you.

puca
03-21-2006, 11:02 AM
Worse than what?

The last 5 years has been a blur of bad, losing a bopper without many other skills is hardly the end of an era of great play by the Reds.

What's more amazing (to me) is that Reds fans actually think that it can get worse... this season was circling the drain at the end of last season, any move that didn't include complete total roster revamp would result only in a stray win here or there.

I'll gamble that the Reds are about as bad as they were last year, maybe with better pitching this year and a little worse runs scorced, that said they still smell like rotton milk.

But at least someone started to clean out the fridge, WMP was the first move.

Of course if your not restocking the fridge while you clean it out you wind up real hungry. Replacing sour milk with moldy bread doesn't really help.

westofyou
03-21-2006, 11:03 AM
Trouble was he bypassed all the really stinky cheese.

The real trouble is that everyone assumes that the cheese is the meal and not just something that sits there in case some mold needs to be removed and sustenance is needed.

Every year some relic is assigned a saviour tag and every year millions of zeros and ones are wasted on debating the merits of guys that will eventually play themselves out of a position.

flyer85
03-21-2006, 11:06 AM
Hatteberg has always been known as a great defensive first baseman. When did he lose his skills?he is a catcher converted to first. He has always been below average at first. He has less speed and range than Casey, basically a short statue. There isn't any objective data(but there is anecdotal evidence in the babblings of Narron) to suggest that Hatteberg was anything but poor at 1b. Maybe there was a reason Hatteberg spent most of last year as the DH and Dan Johnson played first for A's.

flyer85
03-21-2006, 11:08 AM
Every year some relic is assigned a saviour tag and every year millions of zeros and ones are wasted on debating the merits of guys that will eventually play themselves out of a position.but what faith should be placed in a GM and manager that can't identify the relics at a distance but instead must have the ineptitude proven to them?

wheels
03-21-2006, 11:08 AM
I really don't think that the Hatteberg/Womack spectre will hang around long.

Both of those guys are going to go into serious funks at one time or another, and they'll be quickly exposed.

Let's just hope that Encarnacion and an improved and healthy Kearns can shoulder that load until Narron wakes up.

...I still have a feeling that Womack won't make the club.

I'd like to think that Krivsky's IQ is significantly higher than DanO's.

It's Narron that I worry about.

Johnny Footstool
03-21-2006, 11:09 AM
But at least someone started to clean out the fridge, WMP was the first move.

Actually, the Sean Casey for Dave Williams trade was the first move towards cleaning out the fridge. DanO made it. The newspapers liked it. A lot of fans were happy that the Reds were "finally acquiring pitching" and thought Williams would be a nice addition to the staff.

Does Williams even have a spot in the rotation now?

The Pena deal doesn't suck as bad as that one, but it does reek of desperation.

westofyou
03-21-2006, 11:10 AM
but what faith should be placed in a GM and manager that can't identify the relics at a distance but instead must have the ineptitude proven to them?
What faith should be placed in an organization that just sits on its hands and tries nothing other than hitting the ball over the fence?

westofyou
03-21-2006, 11:11 AM
Does Williams even have a spot in the rotation now?
I alwasy thought he'd be a swing man, I always thought O'Brien waited a year too long on Casey and I don't miss him at all.

registerthis
03-21-2006, 11:13 AM
Trouble was he bypassed all the really stinky cheese. I don't know how you clean your fridge but I don't do it by starting with the stuff that hasn't expired yet and ignoring all the containers that expired years ago.

There isn't a bigger block of molding, stinking cheese on this team than the starting rotation, and the addition of Arroyo improves it by leaps and bounds.

Stop looking at it as a Pena - Hatteberg deal. We all know that hatteberg isn't a long term option--he may not even make it out of April. But Pena was a player for whom the phrase "unrefined skills" was a compliment. With Encarnacion setting the stage for a breakout year, Pena's bat is replaceable. Replacing him in the outfield with Kearns or Denorfia significantly improves the outfield defense. Replacing junk like Gosling or Germano with Arroyo is a significant improvement. In short, this is the first in a (hopefully) long line of moves that will set the stage for this club becoming a competitive franchise.

Johnny Footstool
03-21-2006, 11:14 AM
Hatteberg has always been known as a great defensive first baseman. When did he lose his skills?

Never had 'em.

He was a converted catcher. The A's grabbed him off the scrap heap and tried to teach him first base. He slowly worked his way up from being terrible to being merely below average. I don't know where this reputation as a "great defensive first baseman" came from.

Chip R
03-21-2006, 11:14 AM
he is a catcher converted to first. He has always been below average at first. He has less speed and range than Casey, basically a short statue. There isn't any objective data(but there is anecdotal evidence in the babblings of Narron) to suggest that Hatteberg was anything but poor at 1b. Maybe there was a reason Hatteberg spent most of last year as the DH and Dan Johnson played first for A's.

In "Moneyball" it mentioned that the As - particularly Ron Washington - spent a lot of time improving Hatteberg's defense. I think they got him to the point where he was OK. I believe Washington used to call him a "picking machine" at 1st to build his confidence. That may be where the reputation of Hatteberg being a good fielder came from but that has been a few years now.

flyer85
03-21-2006, 11:14 AM
What faith should be placed in an organization that just sits on its hands and tries nothing other than hitting the ball over the fence?Unless one travels toward their destination they never get any closer to their goal. Action simply for the sake of action generates heat but no light. What has been done so far is simply the difference between DanO and Leatherpants.

If they really wanted to build for the future then players would be flipped for guys that have a future, not ones who at best will only marginally improve the team in the short term and then disappear.

Johnny Footstool
03-21-2006, 11:15 AM
I always thought O'Brien waited a year too long on Casey and I don't miss him at all.

You will after Scott Hatteberg takes the field for 140 games this season.

SeeinRed
03-21-2006, 11:15 AM
When you consider the poor defense of Hatteberg it is really hard to see how this is anything but a wash for the Reds.

Do you really think Hatteberg's defense is worse than Dunn's at first. That just isn't the case. Hatteberg, even if he is not a great firstbaseman, is an upgrade from Dunn defensively right now. Thats not to say that Dunn couldn't eventually move to first and become better defensively, but that would not have happened in 2006.

Then you look in left field. Dunn, although not the swiftest in the outfield, is definately an upgrade over Pena defensively. So over all, on defense, I see no way that you can say this team wasn't improved by this trade.

Offensively, I cannot see how losing Pena really hurts the Reds as much as everybody is saying. You may not get the power from Hatteberg, but he gives you much better at-bats than does Pena. That is something this team really missed for much of last year, along with pitching, which brings me to my next point. The rotation is terrible, even after this trade, but you cannot argue that Arroyo will be better than arguably 3 of the pitchers that were slated to be in the rotation before the trade. Therefore, he is an upgrade.

Overall, I fail to see how you cannot look at this trade as an overall upgrade for 2006, even though just a minor one. This team is not going to make a blockbuster trade and become contenders this year, but I definately see the team building. Do you really think that this team needed another power hitter who may never play defense at a Major League level? Especially when he was hit or miss as far as making contact. No, they needed pitching, and thats what the got. Overall, good trade in my book.

flyer85
03-21-2006, 11:17 AM
Stop looking at it as a Pena - Hatteberg deal. We all know that hatteberg isn't a long term option.and guess what, neither is Arroyo. He is a marginal short term improvement who will soon be gone like flatulence on a windy day.

Johnny Footstool
03-21-2006, 11:17 AM
If they really wanted to build for the future then players would be flipped for guys that have a future, not ones who at best will only marginally improve the team in the short term and then disappear.

Very well said.

westofyou
03-21-2006, 11:17 AM
I don't know where this reputation as a "great defensive first baseman" came from.Probably that chapter in Moneyball called "Scott Hattenberg, Pickin Machine"

FWIW some of the folks in baseball can learn alot from reading that chapter, Alphonso Soriano is probably the first guy that should read it.

flyer85
03-21-2006, 11:19 AM
Do you really think Hatteberg's defense is worse than Dunn's at first. actually yes. Hatteberg's FRAA of -12 in 2003 and -14 in 2004 is as bad as it gets and I have little doubt that given the entire season Dunn numbers would not be that low. And if this team had the guts to put Denorfia in CF and move Jr in LF the defense would be greatly improved by leaving Dunn at 1B.

westofyou
03-21-2006, 11:19 AM
Action simply for the sake of action generates heat but no light. What has been done so far is simply the difference between DanO and Leatherpants.

Of course all of this is should be based on data, except it's incomplete, missing the key piece, the part about the current Reds team, who have yet to play a single game that would be included in Krivskey's data bucket.

vaticanplum
03-21-2006, 11:20 AM
Probably that chapter in Moneyball called "Scott Hattenberg, Pickin Machine"

That's my favorite chapter in the whole book. I know a lot of people get misty-eyed over the Chad Bradford book, but when they get into Scott Hatteberg running back to first to hang out with Don Mattingly, I lose it.

flyer85
03-21-2006, 11:22 AM
The funny thing is in a few years this team will still be fighting for 4th or 5th while we see the Marlins back in the playoff hunt wondering just how they did it.

puca
03-21-2006, 11:22 AM
For me the problem isn't what we gave up. We all know Wily Mo has warts. He will never be a perfect ballplayer and there is a decent chance he will never even be a good ballplayer. What I have a problem with is what we got back. Broson Arroyo was an average pitcher whose peripherals took a nosedive the second half of last year. He has done nothing this spring to show that the second half of last year was an aberration and not a trend. He was plucked from the scrap heap a few years ago and polished up, but his two year run as a decent starting pitcher is probably over. He is exactly the type of pitcher that smart teams trade, not trade for. I hope I'm wrong, but I predict that this time next year we will be hoping some team will take the remaining 2 years of his contract off of our hands.

This is Felo for Elmer Dessens in reverse.

Gainesville Red
03-21-2006, 11:23 AM
I alwasy thought he'd be a swing man, I always thought O'Brien waited a year too long on Casey and I don't miss him at all.

The thing I miss about Casey is the possibility of a Casey/Valentin race I always wanted to see. Guess I could settle for a Hatteburg/Valentin race, but it just doesn't seem as fun.

westofyou
03-21-2006, 11:30 AM
The funny thing is in a few years this team will still be fighting for 4th or 5th while we see the Marlins back in the playoff hunt wondering just how they did it.
Yeah they'll look real good in teal here in Portland, then I'll know how they did it.

flyer85
03-21-2006, 11:30 AM
This is Felo for Elmer Dessens in reverse.So who would rather put your money on, Epstein or Krivsky?

flyer85
03-21-2006, 11:32 AM
Yeah they'll look real good in teal here in Portland, then I'll know how they did it.They'll have done it by acquiring player whose best days are ahead of them and that they can control for the next 6-7 years.

Johnny Footstool
03-21-2006, 11:33 AM
For me the problem isn't what we gave up. We all know Wily Mo has warts. He will never be a perfect ballplayer and there is a decent chance he will never even be a good ballplayer. What I have a problem with is what we got back. Broson Arroyo was an average pitcher whose peripherals took a nosedive the second half of last year. He has done nothing this spring to show that the second half of last year was an aberration and not a trend. He was plucked from the scrap heap a few years ago and polished up, but his two year run as a decent starting pitcher is probably over. He is exactly the type of pitcher that smart teams trade, not trade for. I hope I'm wrong, but I predict that this time next year we will be hoping some team will take the remaining 2 years of his contract off of our hands.

This is Felo for Elmer Dessens in reverse.

Bingo! Perfectly said!

Smart teams sniff out desperation and exploit it. Dumb teams don't even recognize when they're being exploited.

redsfan30
03-21-2006, 11:50 AM
Folks, Bronson Arroyo was league average pitching in the bright lights of Boston in the best offensive division of the American League. He keeps the ball in the park and doesn't issue many free passes. No, he's not going to light up the radar gun. He isn't ace material but he's just coming into his prime and he's cheaply signed for three years.

For those of you who say it's not who we traded, it's what we got back....wake up. Stop overvaluing your favorite players (we're all guilty of that at times) and realize that Wily Mo Pena was not going to bring back a dominant number one starter nor was he going to bring back a top pitching prospect. Put yourself in the other teams' shoes. Would you trade Homer Bailey for Wily Mo Pena? I wouldn't.

I for the life of me can't understand why some are saying how this makes the team worse for 2006. Just like in poker, to make money, you can't be afraid to lose money. Everyone is so hell-bent on using PECOTA as a measuring stick. I think I saw where his PECOTA for 2006 wasn't all the bad.

Let the man pitch at least once in a Reds uniform before damning him to hell as long as Krivski.

Johnny Footstool
03-21-2006, 11:57 AM
He isn't ace material but he's just coming into his prime and he's cheaply signed for three years.

His "prime" includes a baffling dropoff in strikeout rate last season. He depends heavily on his defense to generate outs, and the Reds' defense is terrible.

If someone is being overvalued in this trade, it's Arroyo, not Pena.


Would you trade Homer Bailey for Wily Mo Pena? I wouldn't.

Of course not, because Homer Bailey is the only decent prospect in this pitching-thin organization. Put Homer Bailey in the Royals, Dodgers, Marlins, or Twins organizations -- teams with tons of pitching and little offense -- and Bailey for Pena sounds like a good deal.

redsmetz
03-21-2006, 11:59 AM
Let the man pitch at least once in a Reds uniform before damning him to hell as long as Krivski.

What he said.... :)

flyer85
03-21-2006, 12:14 PM
especially since he is unhappy to be pitching in a small market losing team in the National League.

His agent told him this would happen. I guess he won't be trusting any more GMs anytime soon.

MikeS21
03-21-2006, 12:24 PM
Of course not, because Homer Bailey is the only decent prospect in this pitching-thin organization. Put Homer Bailey in the Royals, Dodgers, Marlins, or Twins organizations -- teams with tons of pitching and little offense -- and Bailey for Pena sounds like a good deal.
But the teams you mentioned are not going to offer their top pitching prospects for Pena. Why give up your "Homer Baileys" for Pena, when you can use them to get Adam Dunn?

BRM
03-21-2006, 12:33 PM
And if this team had the guts to put Denorfia in CF and move Jr in LF the defense would be greatly improved by leaving Dunn at 1B.

I don't know why this is so hard to grasp. That alignment, along with Freel at 2B, is the best possible option for the 2006 Reds. The offense and defense are better with this lineup than any other lineup that has Hatteberg and Womack in it.

blumj
03-21-2006, 12:35 PM
I heard Arroyo on the radio yesterday. He's very disappointed, but he's not blaming anyone, the guy just doesn't have an ounce of bad attitude in him. And he's been pitching in a hitter's park, and a particularly difficult one for him, in front of a mostly bad defense against mostly better offenses than he'll face with the Reds. The biggest differences in Arroyo's '04 and '05 seasons were external. He made more Fenway starts, where he's consistently struggled, faced more left handed hitters, started more games within the best offensive division in MLB, and pitched more innings with greater reliance and expectations placed on him. And I honestly think that once he realizes that he's got a guaranteed rotation spot for a team that will really be relying on him and is full of guys who are just as much fun as his old teammates, he'll realize he's better off than he would have been pitching out of the Red Sox bullpen.

MartyFan
03-21-2006, 12:36 PM
Pena was not a major cog in our offense and cost us some runs on the defensive side of the ball...we picked up a DECENT pitcher who has the bility to pitch 6-7 innings or so in a game while keeping the team in the game....what is the big problem with this trade?

I'd have no problem with Krivsky trading every last player on our roster because they ahve done NOTHING together...these guys aren't a legacy team...there are some decent players here but if this deal made out of desperation tells us anything it tells us it tells us that Wily Mo was not going to take the mound any time soon.

Joseph
03-21-2006, 12:49 PM
Folks, Bronson Arroyo was league average pitching in the bright lights of Boston in the best offensive division of the American League. He keeps the ball in the park and doesn't issue many free passes. No, he's not going to light up the radar gun. He isn't ace material but he's just coming into his prime and he's cheaply signed for three years.

For those of you who say it's not who we traded, it's what we got back....wake up. Stop overvaluing your favorite players (we're all guilty of that at times) and realize that Wily Mo Pena was not going to bring back a dominant number one starter nor was he going to bring back a top pitching prospect. Put yourself in the other teams' shoes. Would you trade Homer Bailey for Wily Mo Pena? I wouldn't.

I for the life of me can't understand why some are saying how this makes the team worse for 2006. Just like in poker, to make money, you can't be afraid to lose money. Everyone is so hell-bent on using PECOTA as a measuring stick. I think I saw where his PECOTA for 2006 wasn't all the bad.

Let the man pitch at least once in a Reds uniform before damning him to hell as long as Krivski.


Well said, well said, well said.

registerthis
03-21-2006, 01:11 PM
and guess what, neither is Arroyo. He is a marginal short term improvement who will soon be gone like flatulence on a windy day.

He might be. He's signed through 2008 to a very reasonable contract. If he performs as he is capable of, teh reds will have a dependable starter in the rotation for the next several years, or they can jettison him to a needy team when the time is right.

In short, Arroyo is much more of a long-term solution in the rotation than Hatteberg is at first, that's not even in question.

Jr's Boy
03-21-2006, 02:54 PM
Compared to the Reds rotation right now Arroyo is tantamount to Cy Young.So we give up a young power hitter with great POTENTIAL,and we as Reds fans should be sick of that word. It's not like we lack in power.Oh and btw our defense is no liabilty either I guess.Pena was like a deer in the headlights when it came to fly balls,and you cant tell me you didn't worry when runners were on and a fly ball was hit to him.
I know it worried me and thats not what I want in a Reds outfielder.Yes he does put on a power display,and I think alot of fans have stars in their eyes because of that,and are reluctant to let him go unless the second coming of Roy Oswalt is headed to Cincy.
At least Krivsky is trying taken in hand the late aquisition of the team, and Arroyo isn't going to break the bank ala Milton.Dano set this club way back in his short tenure,and i'm supporting Krivsky till I see otherwise.

WVRedsFan
03-21-2006, 04:10 PM
You will after Scott Hatteberg takes the field for 140 games this season.

Ain't gonna happen. Not even with Jerry Narron as manager.

I've been quite entertained the last two days hearing all the gloom and doom from 'Zoners about the moves the club is making. It's as if we could get Roger Clemons for Sean Casey and the Big Unit for Willy Mo. A large dose of reality is in order.

Jim Bowden (I say again) formulated the Reds with a bunch of players almost no one wanted. A first baseman who was terribly slow, could hit .300, but had no power? Just like Hal Morris, his "gotta have it" factor was not very big. We did the best we could to shed the horrible contract Bowden gave him. I liked Sean, but not enough to keep him around if we could get any improvement in pitching. The fact that Williams replaces what was our fifth starting "group" is, like it or not, an improvement. WMP had raw talent when we got him from the Yanks and several years later, he still has raw talent. He wasn't going to get much better than Bronson Arroyo and at least the Red Sox could afford to gamble on him. Add to that the big contracts to Danny Graves and Juan Castro and you had no trading chips--if you wanted to get anything for them.

I look at it like WayneK is getting things trimmed down so that we can have desirable players at market value. It may take awhile, and I admit the Womack and Hatteberg acquisitions were a mystery to me, but I think there is a plan. At least, I hope so.

Chip R
03-21-2006, 04:14 PM
The thing I miss about Casey is the possibility of a Casey/Valentin race I always wanted to see. Guess I could settle for a Hatteburg/Valentin race, but it just doesn't seem as fun.

We'll always have :aurilia: He has that proverbial piano on his back

KronoRed
03-21-2006, 04:35 PM
Ain't gonna happen. Not even with Jerry Narron as manager.

I think he'll make sure of it.

He's Bob Boone Part.2, He'll bench JR and Dunn because of "kooky" lefties.

redsmetz
03-21-2006, 05:14 PM
I look at it like WayneK is getting things trimmed down so that we can have desirable players at market value. It may take awhile, and I admit the Womack and Hatteberg acquisitions were a mystery to me, but I think there is a plan. At least, I hope so.

Of course, we need to remember Womack was a DOB move - inexplicable, but his nonetheless.

Chip R
03-21-2006, 05:23 PM
I think he'll make sure of it.

He's Bob Boone Part.2, He'll bench JR and Dunn because of "kooky" lefties.

I don't think he'll be that bad but he's going to fiddle around with this lineup more than Charlie Daniels. Prepare to see Encarnacion benched against the likes of Oswalt. Womack will be the nominal starter but Freel and Aurilia will get playing time there too. Dunn may play some 1st to get Freel in LF. Jr. will get a break every now and then - day games after night games, etc - and Freel will spell him there. I expect to see a platoon of Hatteberg and Aurilia at 1st. Narron's big problem - other than the pitching - is going to be finding days to play Aurilia to keep him happy. Everyone was all sweetness and light during the off season and spring but it seemed to me Narron was none too pleased with him later last year when Aurilia was really getting POed about not starting. Even Marty was insinuating that he was a bad influence.

Johnny Footstool
03-21-2006, 05:29 PM
But the teams you mentioned are not going to offer their top pitching prospects for Pena. Why give up your "Homer Baileys" for Pena, when you can use them to get Adam Dunn?

The point is, Homer Bailey wouldn't be the top pitching prospect in any of those organizations. In an organization like the Royals, Bailey would be just another promising arm 3 years away from contributing at a major league level. An organization like that would be willing to give up such an arm to acquire Pena.


Jim Bowden (I say again) formulated the Reds with a bunch of players almost no one wanted.

Yeah, no one wanted Kearns or Dunn or Pena or Aaron Boone or Scott Williamson or Chris Reitsma.

Marc D
03-21-2006, 05:48 PM
What would have been lost by waiting and seeing what WMP's trade value would have been after playing every day for half a season or so?

Seems to me we got as much as we could based on Pena's potential correct?

Well that would have been there at the end of the year no matter what. He'd still be young, raw and have the special power that could fetch you an average type pitcher later.

What we could have gained was at least a chance that he puts up a big half season or so and fetches us much more in return.

All we did was miss a chance to catch lightning in a bottle for the security of knowing we might finish a little closer to .500 this year IMO.

Aronchis
03-21-2006, 05:52 PM
What would have been lost by waiting and seeing what WMP's trade value would have been after playing every day for half a season or so?

Seems to me we got as much as we could based on Pena's potential correct?

Well that would have been there at the end of the year no matter what. He'd still be young, raw and have the special power that could fetch you an average type pitcher later.

What we could have gained was at least a chance that he puts up a big half season or so and fetches us much more in return.

All we did was miss a chance to catch lightning in a bottle for the security of knowing we might finish a little closer to .500 this year IMO.

I don't agree. The Reds didn't care for Pena nor think he will reach his potential. They more of less, see him as a injury plagued, poor OBP bat that will DH for the next few years in the AL providing some pop for teams. That is it.

Reach 500? Krivsky doesn't care this year. We aren't in position to win this year and he is cleaning house. Arroyo gives him a fairly cheap pitcher for the next 3 years that can be used in several ways.

The house cleaning has just begun.

Heath
03-21-2006, 05:59 PM
The house cleaning has just begun.

It's a house that's been needed cleaning for about 5 years now.

It's gonna take a while. Sorry.

flyer85
03-21-2006, 06:05 PM
The house cleaning has just begun.Ok, who has the dynomite?:explode:

Johnny Footstool
03-21-2006, 06:23 PM
It's a house that's been needed cleaning for about 5 years now.

It's gonna take a while. Sorry.

You don't start "cleaning house" with a deal like this. You start cleaning house by trading commodities like Pena for decent prospects, not mediocre veterans like Arroyo.

RedsManRick
03-21-2006, 06:57 PM
Bingo! Perfectly said!

Smart teams sniff out desperation and exploit it. Dumb teams don't even recognize when they're being exploited.

Smart teams don't have to fill rotation spots that were earmarked for Eric Milton and Paul Wilson. Whether you want to admit it or not, 200 innings of league average pitcher is a HUGE upgrade for this squad. That Wily Mo couldn't bring better than 200 IP at league average levels says more about Wily Mo and how he's been handled than it does about Krivsky.

If you give Wily Mo 300 AB before the AS break, maybe he hits .260 with 20 homers and the Twins decide he's worth Scott Baker. Or maybe he gets a steady diet of outside sliders from righties, he hits .230 with 14 homers, leads the league in boneheaded plays in LF, and the Red Sox laugh in your face when you ask for Arroyo in July.

The fact of the matter is that Arroyo is a big step up from our other options and given the state of our pitching and depth of our OF, an offer of a legitimate major league pitcher was worth letting somebody else handle the high risk/reward situation.

redsfan30
03-21-2006, 09:29 PM
What would have been lost by waiting and seeing what WMP's trade value would have been after playing every day for half a season or so?

Seems to me we got as much as we could based on Pena's potential correct?

Well that would have been there at the end of the year no matter what. He'd still be young, raw and have the special power that could fetch you an average type pitcher later.

What we could have gained was at least a chance that he puts up a big half season or so and fetches us much more in return.

All we did was miss a chance to catch lightning in a bottle for the security of knowing we might finish a little closer to .500 this year IMO.
We've been playing that game for 4 years now, mainly with Austin Kearns. It's always been "give him a chance to play and up his value." At some point, you've got to crap or get off the pot. What if we kept Wily Mo and he stunk up the joint? Then we wouldn't have even gotten Bronson Arroyo.

If you even want a chance to be successful in this game, you have to be proactive. You can't sit around and wait. You can afford that luxury when you're the New York Yankees, not when you're stuck in an historic losing skid like the Cincinnati Reds.

Marc D
03-21-2006, 09:33 PM
We've been playing that game for 4 years now, mainly with Austin Kearns. It's always been "give him a chance to play and up his value." At some point, you've got to crap or get off the pot. What if we kept Wily Mo and he stunk up the joint? Then we wouldn't have even gotten Bronson Arroyo.

If you even want a chance to be successful in this game, you have to be proactive. You can't sit around and wait. You can afford that luxury when you're the New York Yankees, not when you're stuck in an historic losing skid like the Cincinnati Reds.


Thats my point, even if he stinks up the joint his trade value is about the same as it is right now. Someone will buy his youth and potential for a mid level player.

I think rolling the dice in such a low risk proposition is being proactive. Your taking a chance at least on hitting it big. Arroyo isn't going to halt the historic losing skid anymore than Pena would.

redsfan30
03-21-2006, 09:47 PM
Thats my point, even if he stinks up the joint his trade value is about the same as it is right now. Someone will buy his youth and potential for a mid level player.
But if he plays close to a full season and stinks it up, another team is going to view that as reason to offer low. Case in point, Austin Kearns...his value is at an all time low. Right now if you believe Austin Kearns could get you anything of value you're fooling yourself. If Wily Moplays a full year and sucks, you're not even going to get Bronson Arroyo for him. When you're trying to get better you can't afford to sit around to see if your trading chips get better because if they don't, you're screwed. You have to be proactive and get what you can get.

Sure, there's a chance that Wily Mo will blossom into a very nice ballplayer. But there's an equally good chance that that process will take years upon years if ever.

Sitting around and waiting is what got us into this mess in the first place. Someone should have been traded 2 years ago but Dan O'Brien was too affraid to pull the trigger and because he was so gunshy he let the value of his chips drop. Wayne Krivski's job is to try and use those chips now and improve this baseball team. If Wayne was going to sit on these players and never try to use them to improve the club, then what was the point in firing Dan O'Brien?

WVRedsFan
03-21-2006, 09:50 PM
Yeah, no one wanted Kearns or Dunn or Pena or Aaron Boone or Scott Williamson or Chris Reitsma.

No, I thought we wanted to keep them. From the pool of players we were trying to trade, Casey, Graves, Castro, Reggie Taylor, Russell Branyan, Ruben Mateo, Wilton Guerrrero, Brandon Larsen, Jimmy Haynes, John Reidling, and a cast of thousands, no one really wanted them, especially Casey and Graves with the ridiculous contracts. As for your list, we got Claussen for Boone only because the Yankees thought he'd never amount to anything. We got Phillip Dumatrait for Williamson. The Reitsma trade amounted to the Braves giving us nothing. Where was the player of worth when they were traded. Only Claussen stands out and that's because the Yanks gave up on him--they thought they were giving us nothing.

Marc D
03-21-2006, 11:58 PM
But if he plays close to a full season and stinks it up, another team is going to view that as reason to offer low. Case in point, Austin Kearns...his value is at an all time low. Right now if you believe Austin Kearns could get you anything of value you're fooling yourself. If Wily Moplays a full year and sucks, you're not even going to get Bronson Arroyo for him. When you're trying to get better you can't afford to sit around to see if your trading chips get better because if they don't, you're screwed. You have to be proactive and get what you can get.

There's risk in anything. Odds are greater that WMP will put up good numbers with steady PT than they are that he will fail so miseribly as to lower his trade value to below Arroyo status. Might it blow up in your face? Sure, but your going to be a cellar dweller either way. At least go down with guns blazing.


Wayne Krivski's job is to try and use those chips now and improve this baseball team. If Wayne was going to sit on these players and never try to use them to improve the club, then what was the point in firing Dan O'Brien?

We've been horrible for the better part of 6 years. Everyone knows we'll be horrible this year as well. Why not wait 3 or 4 months and take a chance on a big pay day when you have good odds? All you have to lose is a Bronson Arroyo.

Ultimately to me, as with all trades, time will tell. Right now, unless Arroyo turns into something significant in further trades this wasn't good for us.

Johnny Footstool
03-22-2006, 12:21 AM
That Wily Mo couldn't bring better than 200 IP at league average levels says more about Wily Mo and how he's been handled than it does about Krivsky.

I guess that's where we disagree. I think Pena was more of a commodity that people are giving him credit for, and one league average pitcher is not going to help this team turn any corner. I know, I know, "you have to start somewhere." But why start by trading a commodity for mediocrity?


for your list, we got Claussen for Boone only because the Yankees thought he'd never amount to anything. We got Phillip Dumatrait for Williamson. The Reitsma trade amounted to the Braves giving us nothing. Where was the player of worth when they were traded. Only Claussen stands out and that's because the Yanks gave up on him--they thought they were giving us nothing.

So you think we traded Boone and Williamson for what they were worth? Wrong. Those were desperation deals to cut payroll. The Reds sold those players.

Reitsma was a similar deal -- he was going to get too expensive to keep. The Reds got two prospects for him, and they didn't pan out. Sounds like you're trying to blame JimBo for DanO's incompetence on that one. Do you want to pin the Todd Jones and Cory Lidle deals on JimBo, too?

The Reds did have tradeable commodities. Unfortunately, desperation and DanO prevented the team from getting the most out of them.