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View Full Version : Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006



Golgafrinchan
03-21-2006, 03:37 PM
From this site. (http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2006/03/2006-diamond-mind-projection-blowout.html)

He ran 1,000 season simulations each with Diamond Mind, PECOTA, and ZiPS projections. The average number of wins for the Reds for each simulation: 73, 74, and 69, for an overall average of 72.

Good news: He noted, however, that these simulations were run before the Arroyo-Pena trade. He said he did a run of 100 sims post-trade, and in those, the Reds gave up ~25 fewer runs, but scored ~10 fewer. That was based on Pena getting ~400 PA's per season.

From that, it sounds like a net gain of about 1.5 wins this season. So, even if the trade comes back to bite the Reds in the butt in the future, at least in the short-term it looks like it's fine.

BTW, the sims forecast the Reds to make the playoffs 1% of the time.

guttle11
03-21-2006, 03:47 PM
BTW, the sims forecast the Reds to make the playoffs 1% of the time.

So, you're telling me there's a chance?!

LincolnparkRed
03-21-2006, 03:48 PM
I would like it more if this guy actually knew the names of the players in yesterdays trade. he keeps refering to someone named Brandon.:mooner:

flyer85
03-21-2006, 03:48 PM
1% - we still gotta chance.

Golgafrinchan
03-21-2006, 04:11 PM
I would like it more if this guy actually knew the names of the players in yesterdays trade. he keeps refering to someone named Brandon.:mooner:

From the comments people have posted to the site:

"and the Brandon thing is a joke...a reference to A-Rod calling him Brandon after Arroyo hit him with the pitch that started the fight with Varitek."

So now you know.

vaticanplum
03-21-2006, 04:12 PM
"and the Brandon thing is a joke...a reference to A-Rod calling him Brandon after Arroyo hit him with the pitch that started the fight with Varitek."

He still calls him Brandon. It's probably my favorite thing about A-Rod.

KronoRed
03-21-2006, 04:24 PM
Better then my sim, we lost 96 in it, and that was with me releasing Womack after a spectacular 5-70 start :(

Doc. Scott
03-21-2006, 04:24 PM
Bah! This is just like the crap in that Billy Beane book. I'm not havin' none of it.

BRM
03-21-2006, 04:34 PM
Better then my sim, we lost 96 in it, and that was with me releasing Womack after a spectacular 5-70 start :(

You gave him 70 at-bats? :eek:

Doc. Scott
03-21-2006, 04:35 PM
Better then my sim, we lost 96 in it, and that was with me releasing Womack after a spectacular 5-70 start :(

I read it as "We went 91-26 after releasing Womack."

KronoRed
03-21-2006, 04:41 PM
You gave him 70 at-bats? :eek:
I was trying to be Narron like ;)

KronoRed
03-21-2006, 04:42 PM
I read it as "We went 91-26 after releasing Womack."
:laugh:

No..at bats

RedsManRick
03-21-2006, 04:45 PM
I want to see the player stats in the year we made the playoffs. What happened!? Was the NL Central similar to last year's NL West?

Doc. Scott
03-21-2006, 04:47 PM
I want to see the player stats in the year we made the playoffs. What happened!? Was the NL Central similar to last year's NL West?

Tony Womack hit .270/.310/.370 with 114 steals in 165 attempts.

BRM
03-21-2006, 04:49 PM
I was trying to be Narron like ;)

Oh. You should have given him 300+ at-bats then. ;)

Falls City Beer
03-21-2006, 05:14 PM
http://people.clarkson.edu/~johndan/datacloud/images/commodore_64.jpg

I hope they saved their work on the cassette tape.

KearnsyEars
03-21-2006, 05:16 PM
"So you're sayin' theres a chance!!!"

KearnsyEars
03-21-2006, 05:18 PM
That is a neat yankees page. I'd like to make a Reds blog like that one, anyone know where I Can get one that will save all my old blog posts like that?

Red in Chicago
03-21-2006, 06:37 PM
can someone give me a synopsis on what "pecota" actually is?

RedsManRick
03-21-2006, 07:21 PM
PECOTA is a projection system developed by Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus which uses historically comprable players to project future performance. That is, it looks at all the players who look like the player you're interested in, and it looks at how their careers progressed. It uses this as sort of a baseline and then provides a series of possible projections, summarized by a percentage. Of course, it makes more adjustments in terms of era's, ballparks, batting splits, health, etc. then you can imagine.

The 50% projection is your "average" projection, where as the 90% and 10% projections are kind of best and worst case scenarios. It goes in to a whole lot more than just that, but since it's inception a few years back, it's proven to be one of the most accurate projectors. Just google PECOTA for more info.

By the way, PECOTA predicted a break out season for Wily Mo and everybody laughed at the system for essentially missing the boat big time. Then Wily Mo went out and pretty much had exactly the season it predicted. It sees VERY good things in his future by the way...

MrCinatit
03-21-2006, 08:24 PM
I would like it more if this guy actually knew the names of the players in yesterdays trade. he keeps refering to someone named Brandon.:mooner:

maybe we actually got Brandon Larson in the trade.

REDREAD
03-24-2006, 10:00 AM
From that, it sounds like a net gain of about 1.5 wins this season. So, even if the trade comes back to bite the Reds in the butt in the future, at least in the short-term it looks like it's fine.
.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think replacing Geranamo/Gosling/whoever with Arroyo is worth a lot more than 1.5 wins. I remember that one season where there was a slot in the rotation with rotating overmatched kids that combined for something like 2-18.. (Reyes, Bell, Reith, maybe someone else too). I just saw that spot as a potential blackhole that could not be overcome even if Wily Mo hit 35 HR.

deltachi8
03-24-2006, 11:20 AM
70-75 wins sounds about right. Brandon, Bronson, Brutus or Balke wouldnt add that much to it.

Edskin
03-24-2006, 11:33 AM
I was just in Veags, and was about to put $10 on the Reds to win the World Seires: Payout if it happened: $1,750.00

But I didn't do it. I figured I might as well just light a $10 on fire and then flush it down the toilet. :(

KearnsyEars
03-24-2006, 04:40 PM
I was just in Veags, and was about to put $10 on the Reds to win the World Seires: Payout if it happened: $1,750.00

But I didn't do it. I figured I might as well just light a $10 on fire and then flush it down the toilet. :(


LOL Good Decision. There's alot of big buildings built in that town they call Lost Wages' because of people taking bets like that. You saved yourself ten bucks. Then again, what can a fella get with $10 nowadays :thumbup:

Buckeye33
03-24-2006, 06:14 PM
LOL Good Decision. There's alot of big buildings built in that town they call Lost Wages' because of people taking bets like that. You saved yourself ten bucks. Then again, what can a fella get with $10 nowadays :thumbup:

Depends on what part of town you go to.


;)

Marc D
03-24-2006, 10:51 PM
I think they'll be on a 90 loss pace untill someone runs up the white flag and Kriv starts selling parts for prospects(as he should imo). Also, there is the seemingly inevitible rash of injuries to consider. This sucker could get 1982 ugly.

Even if it doesn't, I think .500 is the end of the world for this team.

Depressing.

Redmachine2003
03-25-2006, 01:10 PM
I just glad they play the game.

KronoRed
03-25-2006, 04:18 PM
I just glad they play the game.
You saying the 0's and 1's don't play the game? :angry:


;)

BCubb2003
03-25-2006, 09:03 PM
You saying the 0's and 1's don't play the game? :angry:


;)

The 1's are pretty scrappy but the 0's bring nothing to the table.

guttle11
03-25-2006, 09:39 PM
When MLB 2k6 comes out I'll post the results of a simmed seasom.

KronoRed
03-25-2006, 09:42 PM
When MLB 2k6 comes out I'll post the results of a simmed seasom.
Isn't that the game that last year had Milton win Cy Young? :help: