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HotCorner
03-20-2006, 12:02 PM
Per Lance's blog ...



The Cincinnati Reds today acquired RHP Bronson Arroyo and cash from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for OF Wily Mo Pena.
Arroyo, 29, went 14-10 with a 4.51 ERA in 35 games (32 starts) for the Red Sox last season. He established career highs in wins (14), starts (32) and innings pitched (205.1) while producing a team-high 20 quality starts.
Arroyo has appeared in the postseason in each of the last three seasons, including as a member of the 2004 World Champion Boston Red Sox.
Originally selected by the Pirates in the third round of the June 1995 draft, Arroyo owns a career record of 33-33 with a 4.59 ERA in 126 games (90 starts) with Pittsburgh (2000-02) and Boston (2003-05). http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4416

Pena, 24, batted .248 with 51 HR and 134 RBI in 302 games with the Reds from 2002-05.

max venable
03-20-2006, 12:04 PM
Holy Smokes. R U kidding me?

I'm not sure how I feel about that. :confused:

At least Arroyo is relatively young and he should be coming into his prime within the next couple of years.

beb30
03-20-2006, 12:07 PM
With having only Claussen and Harang to depend on from what weve seen during spring training this is a great deal......

dougdirt
03-20-2006, 12:07 PM
Well, we just got screwed in that deal imo....and so did Wily Mo.

HotCorner
03-20-2006, 12:07 PM
Yeah it's official ...

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20060320&content_id=1356543&vkey=pr_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:08 PM
We got ripped off!

Highlifeman21
03-20-2006, 12:08 PM
Bronson Arroyo and cash for WMP.... This maybe puts Arroyo as our #2 behind Harang and marginally above Claussen?

Time to support our new starting 1B, Scott Hatteberg...

Hooligan
03-20-2006, 12:08 PM
Does this move in any way put Dunn back to the outfield and Hatteberg at first? I'm not sure how much I like this either, Pena is full of potential, but how long do the Reds wait for that? Plus, they do need pitching. I don't think Arroyo is a number one pitcher but he can help.

HBP
03-20-2006, 12:08 PM
I know pitching is needed, but I don't think I like this. I wonder if Wily Mo had been in spring training the whole time if this would have happend?

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:09 PM
Krivsky's first trade: F+ or D-

HotCorner
03-20-2006, 12:10 PM
I'm curious what SOSH's take is on the trade.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:10 PM
I hate being a Reds fan.

The offense just got worse and the pitching did not improve much at all.

Horrible organization.

max venable
03-20-2006, 12:10 PM
Time to support our new starting 1B, Scott Hatteberg...

Yup.

CrackerJack
03-20-2006, 12:11 PM
Couldn't get a prospect or two for a young slugger in addition to the 29 year old 4.50 ERA pitcher?

Geesh, not sure about that trade, but I suppose desperate times call for desperate measures.

beb30
03-20-2006, 12:12 PM
Why dont any of you like this? Arroyo is a groundball pitcher and has been pretty decent over the past 2 seasons. WE NEED PITCHING not to mention he is relatively cheap.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 12:12 PM
Ugh. Hatteberg not a starter and Arroyo and our ever-favorite "cash".

The more things change.... :not happy at all:

lollipopcurve
03-20-2006, 12:12 PM
Ugh. I understand it, but I don't like it.

max venable
03-20-2006, 12:14 PM
Starting rotation predictions?

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Claussen
4. Milton
5. Wilson/Williams?

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 12:14 PM
Interesting move. I'll hold judgement for awhile.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:16 PM
Man, I really wish we had Chris Antonetti.

This was a chance to bring in a Joe Nathan/Francisco Liriano type deal. Instead we get a pitcher with a career 4.59 ERA.

Narron's whining worked for him. If you can't bunt or play gold glove defense then he hates you.

Shaknb8k
03-20-2006, 12:17 PM
I agree with redsfan...not real impressed with it but I also understand that you have to give up stuff to get starting pitching. No team is going to trade any type of decent prospects for wily mo. Thats just the way it is.

princeton
03-20-2006, 12:17 PM
Krivsky specializes in contracts, and BA has a reasonable one.

it's not exactly building toward a BRM, but the move's coldly logical for a team that has bats and OFers but not even mediocre pitching

I give Krivsky an A for courage. Nobody else was brave enough to deal Pena, whose star could shine or nova.

Highlifeman21
03-20-2006, 12:18 PM
Krivsky's first trade: F+ or D-

I might go as high as D+ right now, but if Arroyo wins 15 games, then it's a C+/B-

Sham
03-20-2006, 12:18 PM
What does that ERA convert to in the NL?

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:19 PM
Offense will score 100-150 less runs this year. Pitching will not improve.

Hey jmmclain, fire up that Fire Krivsky website!

Reds Fanatic
03-20-2006, 12:20 PM
I don't mind them trading Pena for pitching but what I don't like about the deal is Arroyo. If we could have traded Pena for another pitcher no problem but I don't think Arroyo was a good trade for Pena.

steig
03-20-2006, 12:20 PM
How long is Arroyo under contract? For some reason I thought this was his last year as an arbitration player. If he isn't under a 3 year contract or so then I really don't like this deal. Krivsky did not do that well is his first trade, the offense is weaker, pitching is mildly better, but at least the defense improves.

OldXOhio
03-20-2006, 12:20 PM
Interesting move. I'll hold judgement for awhile.

second that

HalMorrisRules
03-20-2006, 12:21 PM
Why dont any of you like this? Arroyo is a groundball pitcher and has been pretty decent over the past 2 seasons. WE NEED PITCHING not to mention he is relatively cheap.

Does anyone have a breakdown of groundball vs. flyball outs? Just curious, because if he is a true groundball pitcher then this may work out. I remember watching Arroyo in the playoffs in '04 and thinking that he did pitch with alot of heart.

I would rather have had Clement but maybe thats just because he is a "name" pitcher. He probably was too expensive even if Boston paid some of his salary when you consider that we got Arroyo AND cash. But if Castellini thinks that at any point in the future the Reds are going to be successful without spending money then he is looking at our minors through rose colored glasses.

top6
03-20-2006, 12:22 PM
Everyone says we have bats and outfielders to spare. I don't get it, who are our starting outfielders now???? Did Dunn spend all spring training learning first base for nothing???

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 12:22 PM
Anyone know how much money we're getting?

redsmetz
03-20-2006, 12:22 PM
I agree that judgement must be reserved on this one. We're in desperate need to pitching and I think we've got the depth in our offense to handle WMP going.

As for 1st base, there's nothing to say Dunn will return regularly to the OF. Freel could be out there leaving 2nd to Womack and Aurilia and it might allow Denorfia make the club, although I think he would be better off with a full season in AAA.

joe

lollipopcurve
03-20-2006, 12:22 PM
Can't grade it for another 2-3 years.

I hate to see Wily Mo go (but at least it's up here to the Sox and the AL), and I'm lukewarm on Arroyo, but getting a functional 200 inning guy on a reasonable contract gets the Reds a step down the line to where they need to go. Like princeton said, it's logical.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:23 PM
Arroyo 213 hits in 205 innings last year and only 100 strikeouts. Woohoo! Another soft tosser, just what we need!

Bring back Dan O'Brien!

Reds Fanatic
03-20-2006, 12:24 PM
How long is Arroyo under contract? For some reason I thought this was his last year as an arbitration player. If he isn't under a 3 year contract or so then I really don't like this deal. Krivsky did not do that well is his first trade, the offense is weaker, pitching is mildly better, but at least the defense improves. 3 years. Here are some numbers on his contract he is due 3.5 million this year, 3.8 million next year and 3.95 million in 2008.

wheels
03-20-2006, 12:24 PM
If they play Denorfia, he could really help the club's outfield defense.

I don't know if they will, but now they have a golden opportunity.

We all know Arroyo is no great shakes, but this says more about the future availability of Paul Wilson, and suckitude of Dave Williams than anything else.

princeton
03-20-2006, 12:24 PM
it's a much better deal than DanO's first because it's actually logical, as opposed to giving up a bad pitching team's best bullpen arm for two poor prospects.

that doesn't mean that it won't blow up much worse, but it does suggest that there'll be reason if not rhyme in the new front office

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 12:26 PM
Aroyo produced 20 quality starts for the Red Sox last season.

What is the Reds winning percentage when getting a quality start? Pretty good, I know that.

That's a positive.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 12:26 PM
Arroyo 213 hits in 205 innings last year and only 100 strikeouts. Woohoo! Another soft tosser, just what we need!

Bring back Dan O'Brien!


I'm reading on SOSH that BA's peripherals took a nose dive last year...great, buy a guy on the decline...grrrr. Maybe I'm being rash, but you're telling me we couldn't have gotten a young arm to at least go with BA?!?

vaticanplum
03-20-2006, 12:26 PM
Bronson arroyo is one of my top five most hated players in baseball, and I still don't think this is a bad trade. In terms of what we're giving up, it's a power hitter with weak defense who has not completely proven himself to this point. We're not talking Adam Dunn here. In terms of what we're getting back, it's a relatively young and healthy pitcher whom I believe will improve, as opposed to Clement, for example, whom I could only see deteriorating.

We've had too many power-hitting, defensively weak outfielders for a long time. Wily Mo is very talented and I will so miss being able to shout ooooooohhhh Wily Mo when the Reds come to Chicago, but we needed pitching and there's a price to be paid for that. This is not a bad price.

But I will steadfastly refuse to go see Bronson Arroyo play at any open-mic night in Cincinnati. If he can pitch well for the Reds he's in my heart forever, but man, what a tool that guy is.

NastyBoy
03-20-2006, 12:26 PM
Rich Aurilla has been working out at 1B the past week... with Dunn playing alot of LF, so I thought there might be a trade in the works.

Womack 2B
Lopez SS
Griffey CF
Dunn LF
Kearns RF
Aurilla 1B
Encarnacion 3B
LaRue C

redsmetz
03-20-2006, 12:28 PM
Here's a plus... now Wily Mo gets to be a thorn in the side to the Yankees and they can remember what they once had. :thumbup:

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:28 PM
Maybe we can trade Dunn for Jeff Suppan later today.

PhatHead
03-20-2006, 12:29 PM
I think that the only way that this turns into a good trade is if the Reds use the cash that they got in the deal to find some more starting pitching.

I wish that we had Casey back now. :bang:

redsfanfalcon
03-20-2006, 12:29 PM
Unlike a majority of you, I like this trade. Maybe this could put Denorfia in the outfield, or even Wise. This gives us more speed, better defense, and a lot more contact. Wily Mo is fast, but didn't always give the effort. We do not need power, we have plenty of that. A 4.59 ERA in the AL isn't horrible. He also had a 1.30 WHIP which is pretty good in the AL. We are programmed to be negative right away, but what did Wily Mo really give us?

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 12:31 PM
Rich Aurilla has been working out at 1B the past week... with Dunn playing alot of LF, so I thought there might be a trade in the works.

Womack 2B
Lopez SS
Griffey CF
Dunn LF
Kearns RF
Aurilla 1B
Encarnacion 3B
LaRue C


Lineup, imo, would look much better like this:

Freel 2B (ok, Womack is here, but I wish)
Lopez SS
Griffey CF
Dunn 1B
Kearns RF
LaRue C
EdE 3B
Denorfia LF/CF

but, my gut tells me this:

Womack 2B
Lopez SS
Griffey CF
Dunn LF
Kearns RF
Hatteberg 1B
EdE 3B
Larue C
:thumbdown:

Joseph
03-20-2006, 12:31 PM
I'm in favor of it, over all. I've always been in awe of his power, but I just don't think he was a fit here in Cincy.

HalMorrisRules
03-20-2006, 12:32 PM
He has his own website (which looks like he will have to get some new graphics real soon) at www.bronsonarroyo.com and this was in his news section dated 3/15

"Making his third start of the spring, Arroyo allowed five runs, three hits and two walks in three innings in the Sox' 9-7 loss to the Cincinnati Reds at City of Palms Park. Nearly all of the damage came from the first five batters of the game before he retired nine of the final 10 Reds he faced.
"If I have to pitch out of the 'pen, I'll pitch out of the 'pen," said Arroyo, part of starting cast that includes Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Josh Beckett, Matt Clement, David Wells and Jonathan Papelbon. "The way I'm pitching right now, if it comes down to a coin flip, I'm going to lose."
This spring, Arroyo is 0-2 with a 17.55 ERA. In 6 2/3 innings, he's allowed 13 hits, 13 runs, four walks and three homers. Before yesterday, he did not have a strikeout."

Those sure are some encouraging numbers.

Highlifeman21
03-20-2006, 12:32 PM
Everyone says we have bats and outfielders to spare. I don't get it, who are our starting outfielders now???? Did Dunn spend all spring training learning first base for nothing???


With WMP playing in the WBC, Dunn has played the majority of ST in LF, with Hatteberg @ 1B.

This trade doesn't surprise me at all, I just hope both players perform for their new teams.

redsfanfalcon
03-20-2006, 12:33 PM
Sorry, but you can't judge a pitcher by spring training numbers. Or any player for that matter.

IslandRed
03-20-2006, 12:34 PM
Interesting move. I'll hold judgement for awhile.

Ditto.

The interesting thing here is that Arroyo is signed for the next three years at below market value (market value being $7-8 million for league average) and those are his arbitration years. Because he's not yet eligible for free agency, he can't play the demand-a-trade card. Depending on how much cash Boston is sending, Arroyo could be -- key word, could -- a highly cost-effective pitcher for the next three years, leaving money available to go get another one. And that contract makes him extremely tradeable should the opportunity arise.

Worst case, of course, is that Arroyo blows here in Cincinnati while Pena hits 50 bombs a year over the Green Monster.

On the lineup implications, what I don't want to see is a Hatteberg-Womack right side of the infield. Most other combinations I could live with.

SidneySlicker
03-20-2006, 12:36 PM
I loved watching Willy Mo at bat, but his fielding was terrible and it never seemed to progress in his time with the Reds. I hope BA can recapture his form from the playoffs a couple of years ago. As much as loosing the potential of WMP hurts I like the trade. Good pitching is hard to find. Good outfielders are a dime a dozen. I think the ideal situation for WMP is playing as a DH in the A.L. Hopefully down the road he gets the opportunity to play everyday and show what he can do.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:36 PM
Ever wakeup and wonder why you had to be a Reds fan? I do...a lot. What the heck did Reds fan do to deserve getting all these horrible GM's? It just never ends.

Offer Antonetti like 5 million a year to come here.

savafan
03-20-2006, 12:37 PM
I'm kinda liking this trade right now, but we'll see how the season plays out.

RedsNeck
03-20-2006, 12:37 PM
Unlike a majority of you, I like this trade. Maybe this could put Denorfia in the outfield, or even Wise. This gives us more speed, better defense, and a lot more contact. Wily Mo is fast, but didn't always give the effort. We do not need power, we have plenty of that. A 4.59 ERA in the AL isn't horrible. He also had a 1.30 WHIP which is pretty good in the AL. We are programmed to be negative right away, but what did Wily Mo really give us?

I agree 100%. Wily Mo does one thing well and only does that when the opposing pitcher has a lapse and throws him a fastball. I like this deal and if they move Dunn back to left even his D is better than Pena's.

guttle11
03-20-2006, 12:37 PM
Have to start somewhere. I'm not sure this the place, but you have to start somewhere.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 12:37 PM
Ditto.

The interesting thing here is that Arroyo is signed for the next three years at below market value (market value being $7-8 million for league average) and those are his arbitration years. Because he's not yet eligible for free agency, he can't play the demand-a-trade card. Depending on how much cash Boston is sending, Arroyo could be -- key word, could -- a highly cost-effective pitcher for the next three years, leaving money available to go get another one. And that contract makes him extremely tradeable should the opportunity arise.

Worst case, of course, is that Arroyo blows here in Cincinnati while Pena hits 50 bombs a year over the Green Monster.

On the lineup implications, what I don't want to see is a Hatteberg-Womack right side of the infield. Most other combinations I could live with.
.

Ok, now that the initial shock is wearing off, your post makes a ton of sense. It's the bolded part that worries me. Granted, we weren't going anywhere this year, but still...Hatteberg and Womack on the field together. Yay...hello OBP vacuum.

savafan
03-20-2006, 12:39 PM
OBM, you're making this out like it is the second coming of the Frank Robinson trade. On the surface, at least right now, it's not that bad of a trade.

Reds Fanatic
03-20-2006, 12:39 PM
Does anyone have a breakdown of groundball vs. flyball outs? Just curious, because if he is a true groundball pitcher then this may work out. Last year in 205.1 IP he struck out 100, had 266 groundball outs and 314 flyball outs.

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 12:39 PM
Getting out of the spotlight of a high profile city in Boston could be a benefit too.

He's another guy that can go 200 innings and can keep the ball on the ground. I'm more than willing to give this a chance.

This now lets us put Dave Williams in the 5th rotation spot where he probably belongs at this point.

Harang
Claussen
Arroyo
Milton
Williams

Now the question is this: Who leaves the rotation when Paul Wilson is ready to go?

graveyard
03-20-2006, 12:40 PM
What about Freel in left? This would give us speed at the top of the lineup.

dougdirt
03-20-2006, 12:40 PM
sidneyslicker, good pitching is hard to find. The problem is, the Reds didnt find it. Arroyo is going to suck this year.

Strikesout no one. Gave up a ton more flyball outs than ground ball outs last year. GABP. Reds horrible defense behind him. Its going to get ugly.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:42 PM
OBM, you're making this out like it is the second coming of the Frank Robinson trade. On the surface, at least right now, it's not that bad of a trade.

I guarantee you that ten years from now, people will be talking about this trade like they do with the Bagwell trade. Pena will go on and hit 500 homeruns in his career while the Reds may get a few decent years out of Arroyo...maybe.

princeton
03-20-2006, 12:42 PM
princeton cyberselected Arroyo in the Rule V draft one year...

Reds4Life
03-20-2006, 12:43 PM
OBM, you're making this out like it is the second coming of the Frank Robinson trade. On the surface, at least right now, it's not that bad of a trade.

No kidding. Step back from the ledge and breath, OBM. Reds need pitching, any pitching. Arroyo is a ground ball pitcher who's signed to a reasonable deal, these are the type of guys the Reds need to target. Losing WMP isn't great, but the odds are just as high the guy will never develop into the player people think he can be.

Some of you amaze me. Reds make no moves for pitching? You complain. They try and get some pitching? You complain. The Reds aren't going to spend $20+ million a year to sign the latest free agents like the Yankees, pitching will have to be developed or traded for, just the way it is.

beb30
03-20-2006, 12:43 PM
I guarantee you that ten years from now, people will be talking about this trade like they do with the Bagwell trade. Pena will go on and hit 500 homeruns in his career while the Reds may get a few decent years out of Arroyo...maybe.

VERY VERY unlikely, pena is no where near the hitter bagwell was, pena has a horrible obp and strikes out every other time he steps to the plate

BuckU
03-20-2006, 12:44 PM
Now the question is this: Who leaves the rotation when Paul Wilson is ready to go?

Paul Wilson

flyer85
03-20-2006, 12:44 PM
BTW, Dunn should be left at 1b. He is a below average LF and one way to help the pitching is to upgrade the defense, hopefully they will take advantage of it.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:45 PM
Some of you amaze me. Reds make no moves for pitching? You complain. They try and get some pitching? You complain. The Reds aren't going to spend $20+ million a year to sign the latest free agents like the Yankees, pitching will have to be developed or traded for, just the way it is.

I want good pitching.

Matt Clement would have been a better return.

Johnny Footstool
03-20-2006, 12:46 PM
Sorry, but you can't judge a pitcher by spring training numbers. Or any player for that matter.

OK, judge him on what he did last season, then.

205 IP, 100 K, 54 BB, .85 GB/FB ratio.

In GABP, that will add up to a Miltonesque ERA.

markymark69
03-20-2006, 12:46 PM
Personally I like the trade, which I know puts me in the minority. I was looking forward to seeing Wily Mo Pena playing everyday, but at first glance I like the trade. The Reds offense is good even without Pena. What needs to get better is the pitching as we all know. Although Arroyo will never win a Cy Young, I don't believe we could have got more for Wily Mo.

I try to look at our players objectively and not overvalue, which sometimes people tend to do.

I refer to past statements from Marty Brenneman, if the GM (Krisky) could have made a better trade he would have. This was the best he could get.

Plus, I think the Pena's (not) playing in the WBC, rubbed the Reds the wrong way.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 12:46 PM
I think the main problem I have with this trade is that it appears that Hatteberg now becomes your everyday 1B. As if Womack starting at 2B wasn't bad enough, coupled with this = not good. If Freel steps into LF or they find a spot for Denorfia, hey, I'll take the "wait n see" approach. But come OD when the right side of the infield is Hatte and Womack, :sick:

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:47 PM
2B Womack
SS Lopez
CF Griffey Jr.
RF Kearns
LF Dunn
1B Hatteberg/Aurilia
3B Encarnacion
C LaRue/Valentin

Woohoo!

We will score 100 less runs this year.

Denorfia should start, but Narron will go with his vets.

Only way I will understand this trade is if Krivsky can acquire Chris Young.

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 12:47 PM
Wily Mo now gets to play under the glare of the bright lights of Boston and he gets to face some pretty good pitching in the AL East.

Not sure you can compare this to the Bagwell trade and say that he's going to go hit 500 homeruns.....ESPECIALLY a mere 20 minutes after the trade was made.

princeton
03-20-2006, 12:47 PM
I guarantee you that ten years from now, people will be talking about this trade like they do with the Bagwell trade.

yeah, I think that's the great risk.

I was thinking more Lou Brock/Ernie Broglio, though-- who's the smart aleck who keeps saying that the 2006-2010 Reds may very well be the 1962-1966 Cubs?

flyer85
03-20-2006, 12:47 PM
Time to support our new starting 1B, Scott Hatteberg...... I hope not. Dunn should be left at 1b. Here is a chance to upgrade the OF defense with Denorfia or Freel:bang:

Roy Tucker
03-20-2006, 12:48 PM
I think this is a move the Reds had to make. They simply don't have a MLB pitching staff. 3 starts out of 5, they were going to be running guys out there that don't belong in the majors. And the bullpen is/was going to burned out by June.

This improves the odds a bit. They just moved 3-5 games closer to .500. I know, woo-hoo. But Krivsky got dealt a really bad hand and he's trying to get the Reds to be at least competitive.

This trade has the potential to be a monstrous backfire should Wily Mo deliver on his potential. But it is far from certain that he will.

I wonder if the Red Sox remember WMP playing RF in Fenway last summer.

letsgojunior
03-20-2006, 12:48 PM
Offense will score 100-150 less runs this year. Pitching will not improve.

Hey jmmclain, fire up that Fire Krivsky website!

Based on what - Pena and Casey being gone?!

First of all, Casey has never even resembled on a one-man offensive powerhouse, and Pena had exactly 311 AB's in which he registed a 796 OPS last year.

I'm not sure how to react to this trade, but lets not call this the second coming of Babe Ruth being traded to the Yankees.

Krivsky has just done what we've been calling for our GM to do for years - subtract from an area of strength and address an area of weakness - I don't necessarily like the return, but it's a sound trade from a philosophical standpoint.

kaldaniels
03-20-2006, 12:48 PM
I guarantee you that ten years from now, people will be talking about this trade like they do with the Bagwell trade. Pena will go on and hit 500 homeruns in his career while the Reds may get a few decent years out of Arroyo...maybe.

The Bagwell trade is a worst case example of what can happen when trading a prospect/rising star. For every Bagwell there are 10 duds. Drew Henson comes to mind, I'm sure the forum can come up with plenty more if need be. Let's not get too upset right now, this is a trade that will have to play out a few years before being judged a sucess/failure.

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 12:48 PM
Some of you amaze me. Reds make no moves for pitching? You complain. They try and get some pitching? You complain. The Reds aren't going to spend $20+ million a year to sign the latest free agents like the Yankees, pitching will have to be developed or traded for, just the way it is.
Good post.

Strikes Out Looking
03-20-2006, 12:48 PM
Time will tell whether or not the trade is a positive. Krivsky at least pulled the trigger to fill a need the team had.

As to what happens when Wilson comes back, do any of you really think the 5 starters we have will all be healthy come May 1?

PickOff
03-20-2006, 12:49 PM
I guarantee you that ten years from now, people will be talking about this trade like they do with the Bagwell trade. Pena will go on and hit 500 homeruns in his career while the Reds may get a few decent years out of Arroyo...maybe.

It is much more probable that Pena never pans out to be a superstud. You can't tie your own hands because you are afraid of giving away a whopper. You move steadily forward until you realize your long-term plan. This trade does make the Reds better today, and if Krivsky makes the right moves, we won't care about this trade 3 years from now regardless of how well Pena does.

That said, I don't know if I would have made the move now for Arroyo unless I was pretty down on Wilo Mo's ability. We shall see what happens, but I can definitely see Arroyo being traded at the deadline for a young hurler.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 12:50 PM
I'm kinda liking this trade right nowonly if they use it as an opportunity to improve the defense in the OF(that means Dunn stays at 1B).

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:50 PM
Wily Mo now gets to play under the glare of the bright lights of Boston and he gets to face some pretty good pitching in the AL East.

Not sure you can compare this to the Bagwell trade and say that he's going to go hit 500 homeruns.....ESPECIALLY a mere 20 minutes after the trade was made.

Wily Mo faced better pitching in the NL Central.

Mo will thrive in Boston. Watch him have a huge year and great career up there.

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 12:51 PM
Everyone's saying Arroyo's going to blow and Pena's going to develop into a Hall of Famer.

What if it happens the other way? What if Arroyo flurishes in Cincinnati and Pena plays for 10 teams in the next 6 years? Will you still be calling for Krivski's head?

Highlifeman21
03-20-2006, 12:51 PM
What about Freel in left? This would give us speed at the top of the lineup.

No.

Plain and simple, no.

I would bet a lot of money ToWo plays 120+ games this year, and I can't imagine they'll start Dunn @ 1B now, since he hardly played there during ST. Some posters worst fear will be realized and we'll see an everyday right side of the IF of ToWo and Hatteberg.

I love Freel, but they'll never play him and ToWo in the same lineup on a regular basis.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 12:51 PM
What about Freel in left? If Freel is to play the OF is should be in CF where he speed is a much bigger advantage.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:52 PM
Based on what - Pena and Casey being gone?!


Based on the Reds losing Pena, and giving Hatteberg and Womack 500 atbats a piece.

tbball10
03-20-2006, 12:52 PM
Great trade! Arroyo should be a good starting pitcher for our rotation and it's not like we gave up a proven slugger. wily mo may turn out to be good and he may not, but i like the trade, because something needed to be done about our pitching.

Reds4Life
03-20-2006, 12:52 PM
Wily Mo faced better pitching in the NL Central.

Mo will thrive in Boston. Watch him have a huge year and great career up there.

Since you have a magical crystal ball can you tell me who the next coach at UC is going to be? How about the lottery numbers?

SteelSD
03-20-2006, 12:53 PM
Arroyo 213 hits in 205 innings last year and only 100 strikeouts. Woohoo! Another soft tosser, just what we need!

Bring back Dan O'Brien!

Why do we need to bring back O'Brien? It's like he never left.

Wait. Strike that. My bad. At least O'Brien gave up only Dustin Moseley to acquire a low K rate, below-average defense independent run value fly ball pitcher.

Awful, awful trade.

savafan
03-20-2006, 12:53 PM
I guarantee you that ten years from now, people will be talking about this trade like they do with the Bagwell trade. Pena will go on and hit 500 homeruns in his career while the Reds may get a few decent years out of Arroyo...maybe.

According to most articles out of Boston, Pena is not even going to be a starter in Boston. At most, he will platoon with Trot Nixon. No one will compare a platoon player to Jeff Bagwell.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 12:53 PM
Anyone know how PECOTA sees BA this season?

And I will say this: Hats off to Krivski...he has logic behind his moves and this took brass. Not Adam Dunn trade brass, but brass enough. I just hope we end up on the right end of this....

WMR
03-20-2006, 12:54 PM
Trade a player when his value is at its absolute lowest, that's the ticket!

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 12:54 PM
Mo will thrive in Boston. Watch him have a huge year and great career up there.
How do you know? How do you know he'll be able to handle facing Randy Johnson with the bases loaded on ESPN all the time with the whole nation watching?

Many a player has not handled the transition from the small stage (Cincinnati) to the big stage (Boston) all to well. Why is Wily Mo Pena gaurenteed to be different?

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:54 PM
Since you have a magical crystal ball can you tell me who the next coach at UC is going to be? How about the lottery numbers?

Huggins. Zimpher will be fired and Huggins re-hired. ;)

flyer85
03-20-2006, 12:54 PM
Based on the Reds losing Pena, and giving Hatteberg and Womack 500 atbats a piece.that alone will kill the season. The offense and defense will have been downgraded from last season and with the Reds defense I didn't think it would be possible.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 12:56 PM
I think the Reds will make all the wrong corresponding moves(playing the vets awful vets like Hatteberg and Womack).

This really looks like a panic driven move on the surface.

guttle11
03-20-2006, 12:57 PM
Wily Mo faced better pitching in the NL Central.

Mo will thrive in Boston. Watch him have a huge year and great career up there.

So what? The Reds aren't winning anything without pitching. Arroyo is a young guy with some upside. He won't be the savior, but Wily Mo Pena wasn't either.

Wily Mo could hit 50 HR's a year, but if Arroyo is here for 5 or 6 and gets 13-15 wins a year, I'd call it a great trade.

redsmetz
03-20-2006, 12:58 PM
According to most articles out of Boston, Pena is not even going to be a starter in Boston. At most, he will platoon with Trot Nixon. No one will compare a platoon player to Jeff Bagwell.

Yes, I was just reading the fan reaction on the Boston Globe website and most are suggesting he'll be in a platoon. And many are bemoaning losing Arroyo, although many conceded that if they had to give up either him or Clement, most were glad they still had Clement. Some were frustrated at the apparent disloyalty of a player taking less to stay in Boston and then getting repaid with a trade. A number expressed umbrage at the Bosox sending money too.

We shall see..

Reds4Life
03-20-2006, 12:58 PM
Huggins. Zimpher will be fired and Huggins re-hired. ;)

Ok, I love you now.

:luvu:

minus5
03-20-2006, 12:58 PM
How did Wily Mo become the guy you don't want to give up? As I see it we simply lose the fielder most likely to be hit on the head by a fly ball. We need pitching. This helps.

registerthis
03-20-2006, 12:58 PM
Why dont any of you like this? Arroyo is a groundball pitcher and has been pretty decent over the past 2 seasons. WE NEED PITCHING not to mention he is relatively cheap.

Arroyo is NOT a groundball pitcher. He is a flyball pitcher who happens to keep the ball in the park.

Highlifeman21
03-20-2006, 12:59 PM
Since you have a magical crystal ball can you tell me who the next coach at UC is going to be? How about the lottery numbers?


Next UC coach will be either the guy currently @ Butler, or the guy currently @ Winthrop. Bye Bye Andy!

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 12:59 PM
How do you know? How do you know he'll be able to handle facing Randy Johnson with the bases loaded on ESPN all the time with the whole nation watching?


As a very raw player, he managed to hit 51 homeruns and put up a .780 OPS against the likes of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano.

As Pena continues to develop more consistency, I think Mo will eventually develop into a star. If Theo Epstein wants him then that should tell you how good he is.

savafan
03-20-2006, 01:00 PM
Maybe I have more faith in this current management regime than most of you, but I can't honestly believe that they will play Hatteberg and Womack when they have better, more productive options. They know more about baseball than a lot of use, and I just don't think they are that stupid.

deltachi8
03-20-2006, 01:01 PM
How did Wily Mo become the guy you don't want to give up? As I see it we simply lose the fielder most likely to be hit on the head by a fly ball. We need pitching. This helps.

There is a difference between pitching and quality pitching. Arroyo is the former.

It isnt about Pena for me, its about the return.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 01:01 PM
I will hate this trade less if Chris Denorfia becomes a starter.

No Hatteberg or Aurilia at 1B!

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 01:04 PM
ESPN just showed the video of Pena hitting the walk-off homerun against Tampa Bay last year. Makes me sad.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 01:05 PM
I will hate this trade less if Chris Denorfia becomes a starter.

No Hatteberg or Aurilia at 1B!


Been screaming this since page one....in both threads.


Arroyo's PECOTA? anyone? anyone?

TOBTTReds
03-20-2006, 01:06 PM
ESPN just showed the video of Pena hitting the walk-off homerun against Tampa Bay last year. Makes me sad.

I was there, favorite game of the year other than opening day.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 01:07 PM
What was Bronson's BAA last season? It just seems that he is on the edge of being a below average pitcher and a ROOGY. Bronson has one out pitch, an above average curve. What happens if he cannot locate the curve. He gets hit hard with an average fastball and a change that he didn't seem confident to throw. That sharp decline in K/9 is concerning:

2004: 7.15/9
2005: 4.38/9

:from SOSH:

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 01:07 PM
I was there, favorite game of the year other than opening day.

I was too. I thought the ball was going to hit the scoreboard.

Chip R
03-20-2006, 01:08 PM
If Freel is to play the OF is should be in CF where he speed is a much bigger advantage.

Yeah but the Reds feel that having Jr. in CF will keep him more healthy than if he were playing anywhere else.

RedEye
03-20-2006, 01:09 PM
Personally I like the trade, which I know puts me in the minority. I was looking forward to seeing Wily Mo Pena playing everyday, but at first glance I like the trade. The Reds offense is good even without Pena. What needs to get better is the pitching as we all know. Although Arroyo will never win a Cy Young, I don't believe we could have got more for Wily Mo.

Yeah... not right NOW we couldn't. That's why we should have waited another few months till, say, the trade deadline. I guarantee you that Wily Mo would have turned into AT LEAST another Jose Guillen, for whom we got Harang and (gulp) Joe Valentine. Anyway, I'm positive we could have gotten more if we were patient. Then again, Cast-man sez he is not a patient man. Apparently, neither is Kriv. I feel sick to my stomach.:thumbdown

TOBTTReds
03-20-2006, 01:09 PM
XM radio just called this a "possible Eric Milton part two"

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 01:10 PM
Does Anyone Have/know What Pecota Says About Bronson Arroyo?!?

WMR
03-20-2006, 01:10 PM
ESPN just showed the video of Pena hitting the walk-off homerun against Tampa Bay last year. Makes me sad.

I was at that game.

I hate to see Wily Mo traded, but what really makes the trade suck, IMO, is getting Arroyo in return.

Maybe Arroyo is all you *can* get for Pena right now... play him a whole season in LF, which is supposedly what clearing the OF logjam was going to be all about, and if he produces an even somewhat quality season his worth suddenly becomes much higher than a freakin' Bronson Arroyo.

If Denorfia becomes the everyday starter in CF w/ Junior moving to LF then I can stomach it a little better...

on a sidenote: How bad will Boston's OF defense be with Manny & Wily Mo?

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 01:12 PM
I was hoping Krivsky would be able to come in and make a great trade like the Pierzynski-for-Liriano, Nathan, and Bonser deal. Instead he trades an equal, if not better, player for a much, much lesser return.

rdiersin
03-20-2006, 01:12 PM
Been screaming this since page one....in both threads.


Arroyo's PECOTA? anyone? anyone?

PECOTA has Pena and Arroyo at about the same VORP (Pena:24.0; Arroyo:24.3) for 2006, but they diverge from there, and not in the Reds favor.

Caveat Emperor
03-20-2006, 01:13 PM
Why do we need to bring back O'Brien? It's like he never left.

Wait. Strike that. My bad. At least O'Brien gave up only Dustin Moseley to acquire a low K rate, below-average defense independent run value fly ball pitcher.

Awful, awful trade.

Something absolutely had to give. If this team came north with the 5 man rotation it had penciled in from the start of spring training (figuring on Gosling/Germano/Wilson 5th man), there was a good chance of the team hitting the 100 loss plateau. Krivsky had to make a trade here, if for no other reason than to at least give the ballclub a fighting chance at keeping the losses under control. Given what we know about R-Cast, I wouldn't be surprised if the edict to "improve the pitching, now" came directly from the top.

I'm reserving judgment on this trade until I see how Arroyo deals with pitching in GABP and how he adjsuts to being in the National League. The numbers don't look favorable, but I can't help but drinking a bit of kool-aid at the thought of potentially not having to watch Paul Wilson or Mike Gosling take the ball every 5 days.

I suppose this means Kearns will stick around now -- somebdoy has made the determination that they still feel Kearns to have the better upside than Pena.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 01:14 PM
PECOTA has Pena and Arroyo at about the same VORP (Pena:24.0; Arroyo:24.3) for 2006, but they diverge from there, and not in the Reds favor.

Figured as much. From what I'm gathering they diverge A LOT after this season. Anyone else notice the SHARP decline in his K rates I posted a lil earlier?

And again, if they start Womack and Hatteberg, I officially will loathe this trade. Seriously.

savafan
03-20-2006, 01:14 PM
Arroyo was third in the AL in hit batsmen last year, and first in the AL in 2004. Should be exciting.


He was also sixth in the AL in WHIP in 2004 with a 1.220

rdiersin
03-20-2006, 01:15 PM
Something absolutely had to give. If this team came north with the 5 man rotation it had penciled in from the start of spring training (figuring on Gosling/Germano/Wilson 5th man), there was a good chance of the team hitting the 100 loss plateau. Krivsky had to make a trade here, if for no other reason than to at least give the ballclub a fighting chance at keeping the losses under control. Given what we know about R-Cast, I wouldn't be surprised if the edict to "improve the pitching, now" came directly from the top.

I'm reserving judgment on this trade until I see how Arroyo deals with pitching in GABP and how he adjsuts to being in the National League. The numbers don't look favorable, but I can't help but drinking a bit of kool-aid at the thought of potentially not having to watch Paul Wilson or Mike Gosling take the ball every 5 days.

I suppose this means Kearns will stick around now -- somebdoy has made the determination that they still feel Kearns to have the better upside than Pena.

I agree, and I'm also reserving judgement until we see how much cash is coming back. If its used wisely in the draft or in another trade, then this could turn into good trade. But if its for more of the same, then this is crap IMO.

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 01:15 PM
Maybe Arroyo is all you *can* get for Pena right now... play him a whole season in LF, which is supposedly what clearing the OF logjam was going to be all about, and if he produces an even somewhat quality season his worth suddenly becomes much higher than a freakin' Bronson Arroyo.
We've been beating that same "give them a year to up their trade value" drum for 4 years now. Where has that plan gotten us?

It's like poker. To make money, you can't be afraid to lose money.

Is Arroyo the savior? No. Is it fair to call him junk and call for Krivski's head? No.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 01:16 PM
Arroyo's 50% PECOTA Line

192.0 IP
205 Hits
46 BB
115 Ks
24 HR
42%GB -slight GB pitcher similar to Harang
1.31 WHIP
4.37 ERA
25.6 VORP

Breakout 13
Improve 55
Collapse 9(very low)
attrition 2 (very very low)

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 01:16 PM
I agree, and I'm also reserving judgement untill we see how much cash is coming back. If its used wisely in the draft or in another trade, then this could turn into good trade. But if its for more of the same, then this is crap IMO.


Well, seeing as it is not going to the Commish's office for approval, it has to be less than $1M, right?

Highlifeman21
03-20-2006, 01:17 PM
I was at that game.

I hate to see Wily Mo traded, but what really makes the trade suck, IMO, is getting Arroyo in return.

Maybe Arroyo is all you *can* get for Pena right now... play him a whole season in LF, which is supposedly what clearing the OF logjam was going to be all about, and if he produces an even somewhat quality season his worth suddenly becomes much higher than a freakin' Bronson Arroyo.

If Denorfia becomes the everyday starter in CF w/ Junior moving to LF then I can stomach it a little better...

on a sidenote: How bad will Boston's OF defense be with Manny & Wily Mo?


Hehe, Manny and WMP in the Boston OF together... TV ratings for Red Sox games will jump exponentially as you can tune in and catch "Manny being Manny" and "The Adventures of Wily Mo: How to turn any ball hit at me into a 3 base error"

A serious question here.... Who would you rather see in LF/CF? Freel, or Denorfia? I'm still under the impression we're gonna see Hatteberg @ 1B and ToWo @ 2B, so does the trade of WMP guarantee Denorfia a spot on the 25 man, or does this mean we're gonna see Rhodes and or McCracken come to the Queen City out of camp?

puca
03-20-2006, 01:17 PM
So what? The Reds aren't winning anything without pitching. Arroyo is a young guy with some upside. He won't be the savior, but Wily Mo Pena wasn't either.

Wily Mo could hit 50 HR's a year, but if Arroyo is here for 5 or 6 and gets 13-15 wins a year, I'd call it a great trade.

Arroyo is 29 and parlayed what was quite likely a career year in 2004 into a multi-year deal. Arroyo was waiver wire fodder just 3 years ago, and my guess is that he will be again before Wily Mo is a free agent.

I don't like this trade at all. It is not about trading Wily Mo, it is about getting the right players in return. I can see how Arroyo will help this team from completely embarrassing themselves in 2006, but it doesn't make them any more likely to compete for the playoffs this year or the next. If this was the best Wily Mo could fetch, I would have rather they rolled the dice that he or Kearns would bust out this year and then made a trade for a quality pitcher.

shredda2000
03-20-2006, 01:18 PM
Arroyo was third in the AL in hit batsmen last year, and first in the AL in 2004. Should be exciting.


He was also sixth in the AL in WHIP in 2004 with a 1.220

Sounds like he pitches to contact...contacting the opposing batter:thumbup:

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 01:19 PM
Bronson Arroyo-National League Career

187 ip, 217 h, 23 hr, 85 bb, 111 k, 1.62 whip, 5.44 era

WMR
03-20-2006, 01:19 PM
We've been beating that same "give them a year to up their trade value" drum for 4 years now. Where has that plan gotten us?

It's like poker. To make money, you can't be afraid to lose money.

Is Arroyo the savior? No. Is it fair to call him junk and call for Krivski's head? No.

He's never gotten the full-time starting opportunity... I'd have preferred to roll the dice by letting him play the year. Even if he didn't have a great/good year, you can still get a Bronson Arroyo.

redsmetz
03-20-2006, 01:19 PM
Interesting note I saw on the Post's blog from a fan:

Arroyo's Road ERA for 2003-2005 is

*** 3.48 ****

with the DH!


I'll take that in the NL anytime without the DH.

WMR
03-20-2006, 01:21 PM
Hehe, Manny and WMP in the Boston OF together... TV ratings for Red Sox games will jump exponentially as you can tune in and catch "Manny being Manny" and "The Adventures of Wily Mo: How to turn any ball hit at me into a 3 base error"

A serious question here.... Who would you rather see in LF/CF? Freel, or Denorfia? I'm still under the impression we're gonna see Hatteberg @ 1B and ToWo @ 2B, so does the trade of WMP guarantee Denorfia a spot on the 25 man, or does this mean we're gonna see Rhodes and or McCracken come to the Queen City out of camp?

Tuffy was released, I believe... Narron being Narron, I'm sure he'll go with the proven veteran if given the option.

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 01:25 PM
He's never gotten the full-time starting opportunity... I'd have preferred to roll the dice by letting him play the year. Even if he didn't have a great/good year, you can still get a Bronson Arroyo.
We've been saying that with Kearns forever and he has never taken advantage of it. He either gets hurt or just plain doesn't produce.

Maybe Pena would have produced over a full season, but again maybe he wouldn't have. When you're as pitching starved as this organization is you have to make a few "bold" moves.

Until Wayne Krivski makes me believe otherwise, this is the best he could get for Wily Mo Pena.

Westofyou said on the other board something that I completely agree with. He said next year at this point Arroyo hopefully will be our 4th starter rather than our 2nd starter.

NewEraReds
03-20-2006, 01:25 PM
that ive seen/heard so many fans mad with this trade. wily mo MAY turn out to be a very good player, but he isnt what we need. Wayne knows this. you do not win with no defense, no pitching and a bunch of 260, 200k, 40hr guys. you need defense, speed, pitching, etc. you need some power but not an entire team. he knows how to build a winner and i for one love this first move. and i even like it from the bosox point of view. wily mo is a good guy to have in the al. thank you wayne

HalMorrisRules
03-20-2006, 01:25 PM
Lancaster is now saying that Dunn is back to LF, Hatteberg to 1B and the Reds got 1.5 million in the deal.

letsgojunior
03-20-2006, 01:26 PM
Wily Mo faced better pitching in the NL Central.

Mo will thrive in Boston. Watch him have a huge year and great career up there.

While we're in the process of peering into our crystal balls, I'm going to predict that WMP is not going to have the spectacular career that you forecast for him. I think he'll struggle tremendously defensively in Fenway, which historically is a very hard field to play (especially if they put him in center to replace Damon). I think he'll struggle with the fans there, who are perhaps the most unforgiving in baseball. I think he'll be benefitted by the monster but also hurt with his opposite field power by both the triangle and the depth in RCF and RF. And frankly, I'm not all that convinced that he's a superstar. He has glimpses where he looks like one at times. He also has significant periods where he'll strike out on three consecutive pitches. He doesn't walk frequency, strikes out at an alarming rate, doesn't have particularly good instincts. He is what he is - a raw talent - I think it's still VERY debatable whether he'll develop in this case.

And I think citing the Bagwell trade is somewhat specious for several reasons: that is absolutely the worst case scenario in trades like this, you also have the countless other "5 tool superstars" who are traded, and amount to something less than they were projected beforehand - Terrence Long, Ruben Mateo, etc.

I'm not saying I think this trade is golden, or that Arroyo is spectacular - I'm just not being sure if WMP actually is deserving of the stature he's being given.

NewEraReds
03-20-2006, 01:26 PM
Does this move in any way put Dunn back to the outfield and Hatteberg at first? I'm not sure how much I like this either, Pena is full of potential, but how long do the Reds wait for that? Plus, they do need pitching. I don't think Arroyo is a number one pitcher but he can help.
i dont think it does, maybe on more days than before. but i think you see freel or denorfia in left

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 01:26 PM
Oh and it's official according to Marc's blog: Dunn is going back to left with Hatteberg getting the majority of the playing time at first base.

Also, we are getting $1.5 million back from the Sox.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 01:26 PM
Lancaster is now saying that Dunn is back to LF, Hatteberg to 1B and the Reds got 1.5 million in the deal.

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

This trade is now a F-.

NewEraReds
03-20-2006, 01:28 PM
Man, I really wish we had Chris Antonetti.

This was a chance to bring in a Joe Nathan/Francisco Liriano type deal. Instead we get a pitcher with a career 4.59 ERA.

Narron's whining worked for him. If you can't bunt or play gold glove defense then he hates you.
can you tell me how we could get that for a player who cant catch the ball if you throw it in his glove

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 01:29 PM
Scott Hatteberg folks, .677 OPS last year.

100 losses here we come.

I hate Jerry Narron. Combined 1000 atbats between Womack and Hatteberg.

NewEraReds
03-20-2006, 01:29 PM
Krivsky specializes in contracts, and BA has a reasonable one.

it's not exactly building toward a BRM, but the move's coldly logical for a team that has bats and OFers but not even mediocre pitching

I give Krivsky an A for courage. Nobody else was brave enough to deal Pena, whose star could shine or nova.
exactly. arroyo is cheap and can pitch 200 plus innings, for a player who gives us nothing dif than the players we already have. when arroyo becomes our 4th starter in a year, at his cheap rate and his 10-15 wins, 200ip, we shall see who is whining

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 01:30 PM
can you tell me how we could get that for a player who cant catch the ball if you throw it in his glove

How did the Twins get what they got for a catcher who only posted an OPS over .775 once in his career.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 01:31 PM
Oh and it's official according to Marc's blog: Dunn is going back to left with Hatteberg getting the majority of the playing time at first base.

Also, we are getting $1.5 million back from the Sox.

You have got to be $*&^$ing me.:bang:

Caveat Emperor
03-20-2006, 01:31 PM
I hate Jerry Narron. Combined 1000 atbats between Womack and Hatteberg.

I hear Ted Turner isn't too busy these days...

NewEraReds
03-20-2006, 01:31 PM
Does anyone have a breakdown of groundball vs. flyball outs? Just curious, because if he is a true groundball pitcher then this may work out. I remember watching Arroyo in the playoffs in '04 and thinking that he did pitch with alot of heart.

I would rather have had Clement but maybe thats just because he is a "name" pitcher. He probably was too expensive even if Boston paid some of his salary when you consider that we got Arroyo AND cash. But if Castellini thinks that at any point in the future the Reds are going to be successful without spending money then he is looking at our minors through rose colored glasses.
like has been said many times, you cant win in a small market with a few high priced guys and a bunch of low ones. you need a bunch of middle guys, 1 or 2 higher guys and a few lower ones. clement wasnt even an option imo. arroyo has 3 years at 11.5 mill

SteelSD
03-20-2006, 01:32 PM
Something absolutely had to give. If this team came north with the 5 man rotation it had penciled in from the start of spring training (figuring on Gosling/Germano/Wilson 5th man), there was a good chance of the team hitting the 100 loss plateau. Krivsky had to make a trade here, if for no other reason than to at least give the ballclub a fighting chance at keeping the losses under control. Given what we know about R-Cast, I wouldn't be surprised if the edict to "improve the pitching, now" came directly from the top.

I'm reserving judgment on this trade until I see how Arroyo deals with pitching in GABP and how he adjsuts to being in the National League. The numbers don't look favorable, but I can't help but drinking a bit of kool-aid at the thought of potentially not having to watch Paul Wilson or Mike Gosling take the ball every 5 days.

I suppose this means Kearns will stick around now -- somebdoy has made the determination that they still feel Kearns to have the better upside than Pena.


Six of Bronson Arroyo at age 29, half dozen of Matt Belisle at age 25. If you're going to do something, then don't trade away talent for probable performance you already have on your roster- particularly when the player you're acquiring will most likely be nothing but worse than he was the year prior.

And I really can't insulate Krivsky from this deal considering that he came from an environment in which Brad Radke is viewed as being worth ace-level money. Krivsky's the GM. It's his deal.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 01:32 PM
BTW

Hatteberg 50% PECOTA is a -4.0
Womack is is a -9.0 and unbelievably his 90% is -3.6

Denorfia is a 5.9
Freel is a 3.9

You look at that and it suggests that Denorfia should become the OF starter and Dunn stays at 1st.

redsmetz
03-20-2006, 01:34 PM
Here's the Boston Globe's Bosox blogger on the trade:

A few Mo' questions

The moral? Don’t make any “gentleman’s agreements” with the Red Sox.

Scratch off another member of the ever-disappearing 2004 World Champs today, as the Red Sox sent Bronson Arroyo to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder Wily Mo Pena, a 24-year-old slugger who hit 19 home runs in 99 games last season.

Arroyo, who won 14 games for Boston in 2005, had his first decent outing since arriving in Florida this month yesterday against the Orioles. He signed a hometown-discounted three-year, $11.25 million contract in January with a handshake from Theo Epstein that indicated the team didn’t have plans to trade him at the time. It was a deal he went against the advice of his agent to sign.

Oops.

Now, besides what this does for Avalon’s off nights in the summer, one has to wonder what it means for Trot Nixon’s future in Boston. The right-handed hitting Pena will likely platoon with Nixon; but at 24, the much-younger Pena is certainly more in the long-range plans for the franchise than a guy like the oft-injured Nixon, who at 31 is signed through the end of this season. But with the continued offensive struggles of third baseman Mike Lowell, there remains the possibility that Pena could see time at first base, allowing Kevin Youkilis to return to his more natural position across the diamond.

That is, of course, as long as Pena matures as a hitter. Right now, he’s nothing more than Dave Kingman or Pete Incaviglia. Is he worth trading a young and versatile starting pitcher that was willing to go to the bullpen for? That can be argued, and likely will be for this entire season.

Again, as the Red Sox have handled themselves all winter, this was a deal with an eye on the long term, not a six-month sprint to October. Arroyo is just 29, and while not a blue chip prospect, was a 14-game winner last season. Now, it can be argued fervently that Arroyo topped out in 2005, that to expect him to match or better than performance is unrealistic, in which case the Red Sox would be crazy not to get value for him while his value was still high. After Arroyo struggled all spring, Epstein probably could only wriggle out a decent deal after yesterday’s performance against Baltimore and struck while the proverbial iron had some heat to it.

But Pena is a weird choice for this lineup, one predicated on patience at the plate, of which Pena has none. He has a pathetic .303 career on-base percentage, but is coming off a solid performance for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, batting .400 over three games with one run driven in. He also might conjure unpleasant memories of Mark Bellhorn, who struck out 116 times in 311 at-bats. That’ll go over well with the crowd.

How much of his prior performance is based on youth and immaturity? Andruw Jones took almost an entire decade to mature into the All-Star player he is today. Despite a waiting room full of hope and hype, it never happened for Jose Cruz Jr. Where Wily Mo Pena lies among them remains to be seen.

guttle11
03-20-2006, 01:34 PM
Scott Hatteberg folks, .677 OPS last year.

100 losses here we come.

I hate Jerry Narron. Combined 1000 atbats between Womack and Hatteberg.


So, if they had not done the deal you think they would be a playoff team? Get off your Wily Mo high-horse and see things for what they are. THEY NEED PITCHING. If Arroyo even just wins 12-13 games, they'll be a better team.

redsfan30
03-20-2006, 01:35 PM
So this becomes our new team:

1. Tony Womack 2B
2. Felipe Lopez SS
3. Ken Griffey, Jr. CF
4. Adam Dunn LF
5. Edwin Encarnacion 3B
6. Austin Kearns RF
7. Scott Hatteberg 1B
8. Jason LaRue C

1. Aaron Harang R
2. Bronson Arroyo R
3. Brandon Claussen L
4. Eric Milton L
5. Dave Williams L

Bench:
Ryan Freel
Chris Denorfia
Javier Valentin
Rich Aurilia
Quinton McCracken ??

Bullpen:
Chris Hammond L
Kent Mercker L
David Weathers R
Ryan Wagner R
Matt Belisle R
Todd Coffey R
Rick White R

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 01:35 PM
BTW

Hatteberg 50% PECOTA is a -4.0
Womack is is a -9.0 and unbelievably his 90% is -3.6

Denorfia is a 5.9
Freel is a 3.9

You look at that and it suggests that Denorfia should become the OF starter and Dunn stays at 1st.


But that isn't going to happen. And THAT is what pisses me off the most. Can anyone here answer me why you play Womack and Hatteberg when this team was going nowhere, anyway, this year. Denorfia should be playing and Dunn should be at 1B. At worst, Freel in the OF, but Denorfia makes the most sense if you are going to make this trade!

Cedric put it well when he said:
Why is Arroyo worth the risk of trading Pena now? Do you really care about winning 75 games instead of 65? I'd rather give Pena a chance for a big early start and then flip him for something that could help later this season. What's the big rush in going from extremely crappy to still very crappy?

flyer85
03-20-2006, 01:36 PM
Hatteberg at 1B will make us long for the days of Todd Benzinger.

savafan
03-20-2006, 01:36 PM
If Hatteberg is going to start at 1st base though, I really loathe the Sean Casey trade now.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 01:36 PM
So, if they had not done the deal you think they would be a playoff team? Get off your Wily Mo high-horse and see things for what they are. THEY NEED PITCHING. If Arroyo even just wins 12-13 games, they'll be a better team.


So we win 80 games instead of 70 and in the process, lose WMP who very well could have been flipped for something much more substantial at the AS break or in the offseason?!?

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 01:37 PM
So, if they had not done the deal you think they would be a playoff team? Get off your Wily Mo high-horse and see things for what they are. THEY NEED PITCHING. If Arroyo even just wins 12-13 games, they'll be a better team.

Get off your high-horse and realize that we need GOOD pitching.

This team sucks. Subtracting Pena, adding Arroyo, and giving Womack and Hatteberg 500 atbats makes this team worse. I will be laughing when we lose our 100th game.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 01:38 PM
How is noone else furious about Hatteberg now playing 1B?!?

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 01:38 PM
Get off your high-horse and realize that we need GOOD pitching.

This team sucks. Subtracting Pena, adding Arroyo, and giving Womack and Hatteberg 500 atbats makes this team worse. I will be laughing when we lose our 100th game.


I really thought you were overreacting about the trade an hour ago. When news came down that Hatteberg is our starting 1B, I'm right there with you now.:bang: :cry:

NewEraReds
03-20-2006, 01:39 PM
I guarantee you that ten years from now, people will be talking about this trade like they do with the Bagwell trade. Pena will go on and hit 500 homeruns in his career while the Reds may get a few decent years out of Arroyo...maybe.
while not fielding worth a crap and giving no effort. he will have to get traded to be reg in the bigs

Johnny Footstool
03-20-2006, 01:40 PM
Some of you amaze me. Reds make no moves for pitching? You complain. They try and get some pitching? You complain. The Reds aren't going to spend $20+ million a year to sign the latest free agents like the Yankees, pitching will have to be developed or traded for, just the way it is.

What amazes me is how some of you think ANY pitching is an improvement. Were you also the people who supported the Milton signing last season? Uh-huh. And how did that turn out?

Do any of you still like the Dave Williams deal?

The issue is that the Reds need to target GOOD pitchers, not junkballers like Arroyo.

The last thing the Reds need is a flyball pitcher who can't strike batters out. That's exactly what Arroyo was last season.

His ridiculous dropoff in K rate from 2004 to 2005 indicates something is extremely wrong with him. If it is fixable, I doubt the Red Sox would be so willing to part with him.

NewEraReds
03-20-2006, 01:40 PM
So we win 80 games instead of 70 and in the process, lose WMP who very well could have been flipped for something much more substantial at the AS break or in the offseason?!?
and how is this. what contender would trade for a guy who cant play def and strikes out a ton

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 01:41 PM
Two hours I was very excited for the season to begin, now I am dreading it. I don't want to watch Tony Womack and Scott Hatteberg all season. UGH!

NewEraReds
03-20-2006, 01:42 PM
What amazes me is how some of you think ANY pitching is an improvement. Were you also the people who supported the Milton signing last season? Uh-huh. And how did that turn out?

The last thing the Reds need is a flyball pitcher who can't strike batters out. That's exactly what Arroyo was last season.

His ridiculous dropoff in K rate from 2004 to 2005 indicates something is extremely wrong with him. If it is fixable, I doubt the Red Sox would be so willing to part with him.
actually what is amazing is how sad some of your lifes are. i really feel for you guys who cant ever be happy. and no, i wasnt happy when we got milton and yes i am happy today. we traded our WORST young player for a cheap good no. 3 starter. we cant get anymore than that for wily no defense pena. face it. when we bring homer up and get another pitcher and arroyo is our no.3/no.4 pitcher at 3.8 mill, i bet you guys arent whining anymore

traderumor
03-20-2006, 01:42 PM
Thinking of WMP, for his sake, in that pressure cooker, I hope he gets off to a good start. It will get brutal fast if he struggles through one of his whiff streaks.

SteelSD
03-20-2006, 01:43 PM
So, if they had not done the deal you think they would be a playoff team? Get off your Wily Mo high-horse and see things for what they are. THEY NEED PITCHING. If Arroyo even just wins 12-13 games, they'll be a better team.

guttle, let's take a step back for a moment.

The difference between a 4.50 ERA versus a 5.00 ERA is less than 15 Runs over the course of a 200 IP season. I can guarantee that the difference between 650 PA of Pena versus Hatteberg is more than 15 Runs.

And I'm being kind with a projection of a 4.50 ERA considering the warts on Arroyo. His K rate tanked last year. He's a fly ball pitcher coming into the GAB. He was BABIP lucky last year. Lefthanded hitters murdered him.

Best case scenario here is a wash at best. Realistic scenario is a Run Differential defecit. Worst case scenario (too probable for my liking) is an even bigger RD defecit.

When the best case scenario is the least likely to occur and is most probably a complete wash even if it happened, that's a trade you DON'T make.

NewEraReds
03-20-2006, 01:43 PM
Two hours I was very excited for the season to begin, now I am dreading it. I don't want to watch Tony Womack and Scott Hatteberg all season. UGH!
then dont. you think any of us or the reds care that you dont watch. i cant imagine you have anything better to do with your life seeing as you get this worked up over a trade

savafan
03-20-2006, 01:43 PM
How is noone else furious about Hatteberg now playing 1B?!?

I'm hoping it is a short lived experiment

flyer85
03-20-2006, 01:44 PM
Scott Hatteberg folks, .677 OPS last year.
PECOTA predicts a bounceback season and a jump to .689

His last 2 full season(03 and 04) on defense at 1st are -12 and -14 FRAA.

Ask a comparision Casey was -11 and +10. A defensive downgrade.

WOmack was a -14 at 2b in 2004.

NewEraReds
03-20-2006, 01:44 PM
guttle, let's take a step back for a moment.

The difference between a 4.50 ERA versus a 5.00 ERA is less than 15 Runs over the course of a 200 IP season. I can guarantee that the difference between 650 PA of Pena versus Hatteberg is more than 15 Runs.

And I'm being kind with a projection of a 4.50 ERA considering the warts on Arroyo. His K rate tanked last year. He's a fly ball pitcher coming into the GAB. He was BABIP lucky last year. Lefthanded hitters murdered him.

Best case scenario here is a wash at best. Realistic scenario is a Run Differential defecit. Worst case scenario (too probable for my liking) is an even bigger RD defecit.

When the best case scenario is the least likely to occur and is most probably a complete wash even if it happened, that's a trade you DON'T make.did you also take into account the runs wily mo costs us in the field?

guttle11
03-20-2006, 01:44 PM
Get off your high-horse and realize that we need GOOD pitching.

This team sucks. Subtracting Pena, adding Arroyo, and giving Womack and Hatteberg 500 atbats makes this team worse. I will be laughing when we lose our 100th game.

Yes, because how the team does this year means everything. Even with Womack and Hatteberg playing more this team will be better. The rotation got better today. That means more wins.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 01:45 PM
then dont. you think any of us or the reds care that you dont watch. i cant imagine you have anything better to do with your life seeing as you get this worked up over a trade

Sorry that I don't enjoy every move the Reds make. Let's stop with the personal attacks, ok?

Highlifeman21
03-20-2006, 01:47 PM
How is noone else furious about Hatteberg now playing 1B?!?


IMO, I'd rather have Hatteberg @ 1B than Casey. I like the idea of a rotation of Freel/Dunn/Hatteberg with Freel getting some time in the OF, Dunn @ 1B, or Dunn in LF, Hatteberg @ 1B.

I'd MUCH rather see Freel start @ 2B, Dunn @ 1B, and Denorfia in the OF, but I think we're overreacting about Hatteberg.

Caveat Emperor
03-20-2006, 01:48 PM
Yes, because how the team does this year means everything. Even with Womack and Hatteberg playing more this team will be better. The rotation got better today. That means more wins.

Not necessarily -- they've added two offensive black-holes to the lineup that will cost the team runs over the course of the year.

Although, if Arroyo pushes Mike "I'm destined for a double-digit ERA" Gosling out of the rotation, then I suppose it could perhaps mean an extra win or two.

guttle11
03-20-2006, 01:49 PM
guttle, let's take a step back for a moment.

The difference between a 4.50 ERA versus a 5.00 ERA is less than 15 Runs over the course of a 200 IP season. I can guarantee that the difference between 650 PA of Pena versus Hatteberg is more than 15 Runs.

And I'm being kind with a projection of a 4.50 ERA considering the warts on Arroyo. His K rate tanked last year. He's a fly ball pitcher coming into the GAB. He was BABIP lucky last year. Lefthanded hitters murdered him.

Best case scenario here is a wash at best. Realistic scenario is a Run Differential defecit. Worst case scenario (too probable for my liking) is an even bigger RD defecit.

When the best case scenario is the least likely to occur and is most probably a complete wash even if it happened, that's a trade you DON'T make.

That's a fair point, but what else can they do, sit back and hope the guys in the minors develop well?

Wily Mo wasn't going to fit in with Krivsky's style. Why not trade him for a #2/3 starter that can get you 12-15 wins? Some say wait until his Value increases, but it's likely that Pena's value will never increase.

KoryMac5
03-20-2006, 01:50 PM
Pena, Pena, Pena, I have been hearing about this guy since the Yankees signed him 6 or 7 years ago. Tremendous power and potential to be a prolific power hitter but he strikes out a ton and can't play D. He really reminds me of Dave Kingman who had great power played for about 15 teams and couldn't play D .We have offense already we needed pitching Arroyo brings us 12 to 14 wins and 200 innings at a reduced rate. If a better deal was out their Wayne K would have done it. Guess what no deal was out their. With Williams and Goose Gosling getting shelled the other day Wayne K had to make a deal to put a sembelance of a rotation out their.

membengal
03-20-2006, 01:51 PM
I have said all along I want Wily Mo to stay and Austin to go. I am concerned on top of that, that they have simply compounded the error by bringing in another pitcher ill-suited to success in GABP. We shall see.

I will miss watching Wily Mo develop and seeing how good he can be. I hope he thrives in Boston.

I hope Arroyo proves my worry wrong, but, today, this deal makes me grumpy.

WMR
03-20-2006, 01:52 PM
IMO, I'd rather have Hatteberg @ 1B than Casey. I like the idea of a rotation of Freel/Dunn/Hatteberg with Freel getting some time in the OF, Dunn @ 1B, or Dunn in LF, Hatteberg @ 1B.

I'd MUCH rather see Freel start @ 2B, Dunn @ 1B, and Denorfia in the OF, but I think we're overreacting about Hatteberg.

Why do the Reds seem intent on utilizing their field players in the stupidest way possible??? It belies logic which is something I thought we'd received an infusion of with this new regime...

SteelSD
03-20-2006, 01:52 PM
Yes, because how the team does this year means everything. Even with Womack and Hatteberg playing more this team will be better. The rotation got better today. That means more wins.

No, it doesn't mean more Wins. You can't offset a Run value loss offensively without making it up somewhere. To actually add Wins, you need to receive more Run value than you gave up in the context of your alternatives. The Reds don't do that with this trade considering that Hatteberg is going to get the lion's share of PA at 1B. If Womack steals a goodly number of PA from better players as well, then you're looking at a few more losses than last season even with Arroyo in the mix.

vaticanplum
03-20-2006, 01:56 PM
What amazes me is how some of you think ANY pitching is an improvement. Were you also the people who supported the Milton signing last season? Uh-huh. And how did that turn out?

Bronson Arroyo is a better pitcher than Eric Milton, period. He's also, I believe, better suited to this particular ballpark. He had an adjustment year last year while the Red Sox were fiddling around with their injured starting pitchers and he had a lot more pressure on him. He's been through that, and I believe his strikeout rate will improve.


Do any of you still like the Dave Williams deal?

I'm reserving judgment until I see him pitch.

Look, the Reds have a lot of work to do. There's no way they were going to trade Pena for a Roy Halladay-type or even Papelbon. We're not going to get that type of pitching unless we give up some combination of our very best players and prospects. Pena, in my mind, had edged himself out of both of those categories. Will Bronson Arroyo solve all our problems? Heck no. But a disagree that a slight improvement is equal to no improvement. Unless you're willing to give up Dunn, exactly what you do is build little by little. Again, Arroyo has good stuff, he's healthy, he's experienced (don't shoot me; I do think it makes a difference with pitchers) and he will help just as much if not more than Pena in an area where we need it much more.

KoryMac5
03-20-2006, 01:56 PM
SOme people on this board are never happy, just be glad we aren't on the phillies message board had philly done this deal the city would be on fire.

Danny Serafini
03-20-2006, 01:58 PM
Arroyo was third in the AL in hit batsmen last year, and first in the AL in 2004. Should be exciting.

Good thing he wasn't here at the start of camp. Watching him pitch to Jason LaRue in an intrasquad game would've been brutal.

SteelSD
03-20-2006, 01:58 PM
That's a fair point, but what else can they do, sit back and hope the guys in the minors develop well?

Wily Mo wasn't going to fit in with Krivsky's style. Why not trade him for a #2/3 starter that can get you 12-15 wins? Some say wait until his Value increases, but it's likely that Pena's value will never increase.

Hey, I'd love to have dealt Pena for a #2 or #3 Starting Pitcher. But Bronson Arroyo isn't one of those. And of the two players, Arroyo is the guy whose value is most likely to never increase.

The Reds just sold low and bought high and gained nothing of consequence from a Run Differential standpoint. To turn losing into winning via trade, a team actually has to win their trades on a consistent basis. Simply put, the Reds need to add more than they subtract in order to come out ahead. They haven't done that in what seems like forever and without doing that the losing will continue.

deltachi8
03-20-2006, 01:58 PM
and how is this. what contender would trade for a guy who cant play def and strikes out a ton

A contender who realizes a strike out is another out and the guy may hit 50 HRs.

Again, this is not about Pena, its about the return which isn't that good. It doesnt make this team better.

redsfanfalcon
03-20-2006, 01:59 PM
Can I get a witness from the congregation? Preach on NewEraReds and KoryMac5...I'm with you both on this one!

flyer85
03-20-2006, 02:00 PM
How is noone else furious about Hatteberg now playing 1B?!?i think everyone is. It is beyond stupidy and suggests complete ignorance in the front office.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 02:00 PM
Narron is so full of crap. I can't wait until he is fired or his contract runs out. I would seriously rather have Bob Boone or Dave Miley.

Goodbye, Pena. Hello, Arroyo
BY JOHN FAY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER

SARASOTA, Fla. – The Reds today traded outfielder Wily Mo Pena to the Boston Red Sox for right-hander Bronson Arroyo.

Arroyo will go immediately to the top of the rotation, probably right after Aaron Harang.

Scott Hatteberg will become the Reds’ everyday first baseman. Adam Dunn will return to left field.

The Reds also got cash in the deal.

Arroyo signed a three-year, $11.2 million contract in January.

“We know pitching wins in baseball,” Reds manager Jerry Narron said. “(General manager) Wayne Krivsky has worked hard getting it. This is the first step.”

Arroyo, 29, was 14-10 with a 4.51 ERA for the Red Sox last year. He pitched 205 1/3 innings and led the Red Sox with 20 quality starts.

“I think it’s a good trade for both teams,” Narron said. “They were looking for a right-handed bat. We got a solid major league starter. He can throw any pitch over in any count."

The moves also improve the team defense, Narron said.

“That’s what you need. Adam Dunn is better than Wily Mo in left. Hatteberg is better that Dunn at first,” Narron said.

The risk in trading Pena is he’s a 24-year-old with great talent. He could blossom into one of the game’s great sluggers.

“I can’t worry about that,” Krivsky said. “We’re a better team Arroyo in the rotation and Adam Dunn in left.”

Krivsky said the trade came together quickly – over two or three days.

But the Reds set themselves up to do it on Feb. 12, when they signed Hatteberg.

“Signing him gave us the flexibility.”

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060320/SPT04/303200014/1071

Danny Serafini
03-20-2006, 02:00 PM
Do any of you still like the Dave Williams deal?

How on earth can anyone judge it yet? Can the guy at least get one regular season start before he gets thrown under the bus?

deltachi8
03-20-2006, 02:01 PM
Is this the congrgation at the Church of Our Lady of perpetual 90 loss Seasons?

cumberlandreds
03-20-2006, 02:01 PM
I like others will reserve judgement. Maybe we could have got a little more for Pena but I doubt very much more at this time. If you wait you may get even less. I think there is a good chance Denorfia may be in the outfield with Dunn still at 1b. He would be a big imrovement defensively and may save a few runs over the course of the season. Sounds like Arroyo is a ground ball pitcher which fits our ballpark. A 4.50 era is better than anything else we have.

Just saw the article above. I guess you can scratch Denorfia from the starting OF. But don't be surprised if this happens before the season is done.

KoryMac5
03-20-2006, 02:02 PM
We posters who are fairly new to this board have been Reds fans for life and we bleed Cincy Red through and through. Every year somebody asks me who is going to the Show I always say the Reds. We as new posters need to inject some positive vibes to the Redszone board too much gloom and doom around here.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 02:03 PM
did you also take into account the runs wily mo costs us in the field?they will be more than offset by Hatteberg who is a 25 run deficit from the Casey of 2005.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 02:04 PM
IMO, I'd rather have Hatteberg @ 1B than Casey. any reason to support that?

savafan
03-20-2006, 02:04 PM
Interesting note I saw on the Post's blog from a fan:

Arroyo's Road ERA for 2003-2005 is

*** 3.48 ****

with the DH!


I'll take that in the NL anytime without the DH.


This gives hope, and I'm surprised that everyone overlooked it.

KoryMac5
03-20-2006, 02:05 PM
Is this the congrgation at the Church of Our Lady of perpetual 90 loss Seasons?


Im a fan regardless,whether they win 90 or lose 90. And I will preach my loyalty to this team until my last breath for that is what it is to be a fan.

deltachi8
03-20-2006, 02:06 PM
Do any of you still like the Dave Williams deal?



I did because I felt that the Reds with Pena+Kearns full time would produce better at less of a cost than Pena/Kearns + Casey.

I thought it really was the best they could get for Casey and Williams as a #5 would be just that, a #5 starter.

After today, its a bit different, because your lineup now has Kearns + Hatteberg....and Arroyo doesnt make up for that.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 02:08 PM
This gives hope, and I'm surprised that everyone overlooked it.The problem isn't Arroyo. The problem is they are going to have two loads of dung(who have no reason even being on a roster, much less starting) manning 1b and 2b. Nobody seems to know where the smell is coming from.

The 50% PECOTA line for both is a negative VORP and their career is defined by large FRAA numbers at 1b and 2b.

Denorfia projects a higher VORP(+6) and brings above average defense in the OF.

deltachi8
03-20-2006, 02:08 PM
gO rEdz

guttle11
03-20-2006, 02:08 PM
No, it doesn't mean more Wins. You can't offset a Run value loss offensively without making it up somewhere. To actually add Wins, you need to receive more Run value than you gave up in the context of your alternatives. The Reds don't do that with this trade considering that Hatteberg is going to get the lion's share of PA at 1B. If Womack steals a goodly number of PA from better players as well, then you're looking at a few more losses than last season even with Arroyo in the mix.

But why does this mean the Womack will play more? This is the line-up I'd expect...

Freel/Aurilia 2B
Lopez SS
Griffey CF
Dunn LF
Kearns RF
Encarnacion3B
Hatteberg 1B
LaRue C
P

With that line-up Womack may get two starts a week tops, same as any backup.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 02:10 PM
you do not win with no defenseand yet turning the 2b and 1B over to Womack and Hatteberg made the defense much worse than last year. Amazing. Beyond stupidity.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 02:11 PM
I was so pumped for this season to begin. I couldn't wait to see what an offense led by youngsters Adam Dunn, Felipe Lopez, Edwin Encarnacion, Austin Kearns, and Wily Mo Pena could do. Add in a healthy Griffey, Freel, and LaRue and I thought this team score 850 or more runs this year. Now I am so disappointed. They will be lucky to score 750 runs this year with Hatteberg and Womack in the lineup.

Very sad day. Completely ruined Opening Day for me.

guttle11
03-20-2006, 02:12 PM
gO rEdz

i Reelly leik teh ReDz two.

dfs
03-20-2006, 02:12 PM
Narron is so full of crap. I can't wait until he is fired or his contract runs out. I would seriously rather have Bob Boone or Dave Miley.

Wow. I thought I was the only one down on Narron. No way do I ever want Bob Boone in a reds uni ever again.

FWIW Hatteberg will put up better numbers than he did last year and the reds should be able to aquire a cheap decent hitting firstbaseman to plug in there. Right now, it's a weakness, but, once a GM starts looking for them those kind of players are all around.

Williams will be better than Milton/Ortiz from last year. That's progress of a sort. Sean Casey was way to expensive for his production.

The red sox aquired Arroyo by claiming him off waivers from the Pirates. They got two seasons of him as a starter in Fenway Park and then flipped him for WMP. THAT'S a front office. That's what the reds need to be doing, finding waiver claims and 6 year minor league free agents with that kind of up side. Not selling players low and buying high.

All that aside, Krivsky is trying to wrangle a baseball team out of the assembly of talent that Dan O'Brien left. As a fan I chaffed and chaffed under O'Brien's patient 'wait and see' mandates. While I don't agree with many of Krivsky's moves, I do appreciate that he is trying to form a baseball team, not get the best deal. In the short term, this deal made the reds better. The pitching was simply too thin.

WMP sure does seem to leave a trail out there. I wonder how many of his teamates will come to the going away party. I have to wonder how that is going to play in Boston.

Finally, I really wonder how long ago this deal was agreed upon. There were all kinds of comments when Hatteberg was signed. The reds never seriously seemed to want to put Adam Dunn at firstbase. Did he even see 10 innings there in ST? WMP never did come back from the WBC. I wonder if the deal was agreed upon weeks ago with only the amount of cash left over depending on circumstances when the deal was executed.

SteelSD
03-20-2006, 02:16 PM
But why does this mean the Womack will play more? This is the line-up I'd expect...

Freel/Aurilia 2B
Lopez SS
Griffey CF
Dunn LF
Kearns RF
Encarnacion3B
Hatteberg 1B
LaRue C
P

With that line-up Womack may get two starts a week tops, same as any backup.

Womack now has one less guy to stand between him and PT considering that Freel is now more likely to back up an OF on a consistent basis. And if Womack gets two starts per week, that's a real issue- particularly when combined with Hatteberg stealing PA from better lineup options. No reason to slot Hatteberg at 1B and Dunn in the OF when you've got Denorfia available to play the OF on a daily basis.

In short, Narron and Krivsky are going to use crappy players more often than they should as a result of the trade.

dougdirt
03-20-2006, 02:17 PM
newera, yes he did take that into account.

guttle, i dont think the rotation got much better. Is Arroyo going to be any better than Germano was? I am not sure about that one. I would rather have Pena back and Germano starting than not have Pena and have Arroyo.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 02:17 PM
I would love to see Krivsky target Hee Seop Choi now. He can be had for cheap, and I really think he could have a breakout season in the Great American Ballpark. Or sign Carlos Pena if the Tigers do release him.

Trade for Chris Young. The D-Backs are loaded with outfield prospects and would most likely part with him.

PickOff
03-20-2006, 02:19 PM
Hey, I'd love to have dealt Pena for a #2 or #3 Starting Pitcher. But Bronson Arroyo isn't one of those. And of the two players, Arroyo is the guy whose value is most likely to never increase.

The Reds just sold low and bought high and gained nothing of consequence from a Run Differential standpoint. To turn losing into winning via trade, a team actually has to win their trades on a consistent basis. Simply put, the Reds need to add more than they subtract in order to come out ahead. They haven't done that in what seems like forever and without doing that the losing will continue.

When basing the trade on Run Differential you have to look at who the other players are that would/would have played in their absence. I feel we give up more runs with the alternatives to Arroyo than we lose with the alternatives to Pena.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 02:22 PM
I would love to see Krivsky target Hee Seop Choi now. He can be had for cheap, and I really think he could have a breakout season in the Great American Ballpark. Or sign Carlos Pena if the Tigers do release him.
couldn't agree more. At least they each have upside, it's all downhill for the ancient Hatteberg.

TeamSelig
03-20-2006, 02:24 PM
Oh my god...... we didn't even get a prospect back... not even a low level prospect...

Bronson isn't even a starter. Please don't tell me we traded Wily Mo for an average 'closer'

GridironGrace
03-20-2006, 02:24 PM
Unless this SHOCK Wears off in a few days... it prolly will

but im prolly a REd sox fan now.

Atleast thier Front office is smart enough to see a Kid holding Candy and STEAL IT!!!!!!!!!!

So sorry WMP.........gonna mis you.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 02:28 PM
they will be more than offset by Hatteberg who is a 25 run deficit from the Casey of 2005.

And oh how we all were lamenting Casey last year. :cry:

Caveat Emperor
03-20-2006, 02:29 PM
I did because I felt that the Reds with Pena+Kearns full time would produce better at less of a cost than Pena/Kearns + Casey.

I thought it really was the best they could get for Casey and Williams as a #5 would be just that, a #5 starter.

After today, its a bit different, because your lineup now has Kearns + Hatteberg....and Arroyo doesnt make up for that.

This is the kind of cluster-messup that resutls with 2 different owners and 2 different GMs in the span of 4 months.

This team would now be better off having NOT made the Casey trade, since Williams could be bumped to the 'pen by this move and Hatteberg will, in all likelihood, be manning 1st instead of Dunn.

IslandRed
03-20-2006, 02:30 PM
The problem isn't Arroyo. The problem is they are going to have two loads of dung(who have no reason even being on a roster, much less starting) manning 1b and 2b. Nobody seems to know where the smell is coming from.

If the presumption is that we'll stop here, then I can see that. But for what it's worth, I'd be surprised if either of those two is a regular for long. Womack will play his way to a DFA; Hatteberg wasn't signed to be the starter and first base is the easiest position to scrape up a cheap bat.

The real question here is, why Dunn back to LF? The reason for moving Dunn to first base wasn't a consensus opinion that he'd play first better than he'd play left, it was because we needed him to move so both Pena and Kearns could play. That reason's gone now. So if Dunn's a better left fielder than first baseman, shouldn't he play there? Krivsky values defense, we know that. I'm just speculating here, but if part of the long-term plan is to stop using the square pegs/round holes approach to defense, that may not be a bad thing. Although it means we'll get to watch Scott Hatteberg only sort of hit for now.

adampad
03-20-2006, 02:30 PM
I hate this trade. I am heartbroken. I am wounded. Wily Mo was the reason I could watch the Reds over the last couple of years without vomitting. Everyone acts like his D is so bad and he strikes out too much. I call BS. Dunn is worse in the field IMHO. He doesn't have the speed or the arm Wily Mo has and he also strikes out more than ANYONE. Pena could carry the team when he was hot. And he usually had too, since everyone else was injured or busy sucking like Kearns. I couldn't wait to see him get a full season in without worring about being benched and with JR and Dunn in the same lineup. Remember how the guy came up with a messed up contract and we could send him down. He had to learn without playing as much as he could but when he got his chance he started to shine. I truely believe that his career will be great. And I will miss him. I will miss the MAMMOTH homers that could make me smile during a lot. I will never forget him for what he gave me, my best Reds memory. I was there on his bobblehead night when he hit a monster game winning homer, 2 days back from the DL.

I can understand we need pitching, but we did need his bat. Everyone talks about how he is not "proven". Someone show me how "proven" Kearns is. Someone tell me how much power will be there if Griffey goes down again. I would rather trade Dunn for a TRUE BIG name pitcher and roll the dice with Wily Mo. Don't get me wrong, I like Dunn, love Jr, and I enjoy watching Kearns sometimes. But I thought this was one of the reasons we traded Casey. That trade took a little piece of me when it happened, but it made sense to me. They needed the $$ and it cleared a spot for Kearns/Wily Mo to play everyday. I could deal with it. I could deal with a JR. trade, possibly in the same way. A Dunn deal, I would understand if we got an ace. But now I'm heart broken. Does it make the Reds a better team? Maybe, maybe not. Will Wily Mo reach his potential? I hope so, but I wish he could have tried to do it here. He was like a lottery ticket with the first 2 numbers matching. He gave me hope, something to dream about. Something to look foward to. I am still in shock and almost feel like crying. It seems like everytime someone becomes special to me or seems to enjoy playing in Cincinnati we trade them. Aaron Boone, Dimitri Young, Sean Casey, Chris Reitsma, and you could almost put Joe Randa in that category. Anyway, today is a sad day for me.

CySeymour
03-20-2006, 02:31 PM
Bronson isn't even a starter. Please don't tell me we traded Wily Mo for an average 'closer'

A closer? Where are you getting that from?

KoryMac5
03-20-2006, 02:31 PM
but im prolly a REd sox fan now.

sorry to see you go to the other side

Tommyjohn25
03-20-2006, 02:31 PM
Is this the congrgation at the Church of Our Lady of perpetual 90 loss Seasons?


Im a fan regardless,whether they win 90 or lose 90. And I will preach my loyalty to this team until my last breath for that is what it is to be a fan.

Right on Kory! Good attitude to have, make no mind of some members making fun of you for it, some of them thrive on misery.


gO rEdz

Not cool at all, come on...let the fan be optimistic.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 02:32 PM
And oh how we all were lamenting Casey last year. :cry:I take it all back. he is an MVP candidate compared to Hatteberg.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 02:32 PM
I wish I were an Oakland A's or Cleveland Indians fan right now. Wonder what it feels like to have a bunch of great young hitters and pitchers and a great farm system led by a great front office? Those two organizations have it made in the shade right now.

Seriously, if I were Bob Castinelli, I would give Chris Antonetti a call and offer him a ridiculous contract to become the Reds GM.

SidneySlicker
03-20-2006, 02:33 PM
Has Kearns shown the ability to stay healthy for an entire season surely not, however it has been proven that he strikes out far less and is a much better fielder than Pena.

GridironGrace
03-20-2006, 02:34 PM
man i dunno... ill die a Reds fan i know this.. but DANG............

WMP FOR THAT???????????????

Potential to be an ALL-STAR for several SEasons once he developes a bit more and we send him off for a what??????

Money? lol

Arroyo wont win 10 games for us EVER.. if he does it still wasnt worth WMP.

TOBTTReds
03-20-2006, 02:34 PM
I'm not going to argue any of these points whether they are right or wrong. But I am upset about it too. He made the Reds 'watchable' (when he was batting). My best memories from last year other than opening day were WMP homeruns (that are still flying). And actually the best defensive play I've ever seen live was a play by WMP two years ago robbing Pujols of a HR in center field. I loved the guy, but in baseball, you can't let your passion for a player stand in the way.

I would have traded him if the right guy came along (don't think it was arroyo). He certainly hit the furthest HR's I've seen.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 02:34 PM
I take it all back. he is an MVP candidate compared to Hatteberg.


Oh I know. I think people are now starting to realize what implications this trade has had. Now, If Hatteberg doesn't man 1st for more than April, I might can live with this. But OMG the right side of the infield is a black hole.

CTA513
03-20-2006, 02:35 PM
I just hope Arroyo doesnt come here and do what Milton did last year.

:eek:

flyer85
03-20-2006, 02:36 PM
The real question here is, why Dunn back to LF? The reason for moving Dunn to first base wasn't a consensus opinion that he'd play first better than he'd play left, it was because we needed him to move so both Pena and Kearns could play. No but Dunn is below average in LF and is likely to always be. There is a very good defensive OF on the team in Denorfia who is likely to provide more offense than Hatteberg, his only drawback is not being a scrappy veteran. In addition Dunn could turn out to be a very good defensive 1b and is a huge target. Hatteberg is a bad defensive 1b(as he has always been) and is a small target. The move of Dunn back to LF makes no sense on any level is the answer is Hatteberg at 1B. He is less than a zero both offensively and defensively.

Red Leader
03-20-2006, 02:36 PM
Hey, I'd love to have dealt Pena for a #2 or #3 Starting Pitcher. But Bronson Arroyo isn't one of those. And of the two players, Arroyo is the guy whose value is most likely to never increase.

The Reds just sold low and bought high and gained nothing of consequence from a Run Differential standpoint. To turn losing into winning via trade, a team actually has to win their trades on a consistent basis. Simply put, the Reds need to add more than they subtract in order to come out ahead. They haven't done that in what seems like forever and without doing that the losing will continue.


I'd argue that the last trade that resulted in a win was the Rob Bell to TEX for Ruben Mateo and Edwin, and it took what? 4 years for that to be a win?

corkedbat
03-20-2006, 02:37 PM
I kinda fall in the 'wait and see' category. The contract is good and BA is an improvement improvement over what we have, but I can't help wishing we got more.

This seems to me the kind of deal a team makes when they have extra positional players, a loaded farm system and need one more pitcher to put them over the top in a pennant race. The Reds aren't going to compete - even with Arroyo. I'd have rather seen if WMP or Kearns could build more value and personally would have liked to seen a younger pitcher with more upside.

I also wonder if Arroyo did a sweet hearts deal to stay in Boston. If he did, will he cause problems in Cincy and cann't he demand a trade at the end of the season since he has a LTC?

GridironGrace
03-20-2006, 02:37 PM
All i know is the excitement I had for another season is, atleast for now, GONE!!!!!!!!!


I was gonna pick out my games to goto soon too :( woulda been my first ever trip to sit in the stands watch a game...

Finally the Money and Time to do it... And they shoot me in the foot..

I can honestly say Pena was prolly one of my Top 3 Favorite players on teh Reds and basiclly a Tie between Lopez and Jr.

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 02:38 PM
Is this the congrgation at the Church of Our Lady of perpetual 90 loss Seasons?


Im a fan regardless,whether they win 90 or lose 90. And I will preach my loyalty to this team until my last breath for that is what it is to be a fan.


Hey, believe it or not, we all are fans of the Reds, regardless. But after losing season after losing season, and what seemed to be no hope in sight, we are allowed to lament, what we feel are more of the same type of moves that perpetuate losing.

Tommyjohn25
03-20-2006, 02:38 PM
sorry wrong thread.

flyer85
03-20-2006, 02:41 PM
But OMG the right side of the infield is a black hole.both with the glove and with the bat. It is amazing the Reds could even come up with such useless players. They bring nothing positive except for being "scrappy".

SirFelixCat
03-20-2006, 02:43 PM
both with the glove and with the bat. It is amazing the Reds could even come up with such useless players. They bring nothing positive except for being "scrappy".

Ya know, it's damn funny that last year, everyone, and I mean EVERYONE would have killed to have Aurillia not start at 2B. This year, I bet most would kill to have him start at either 1B or 2B.

Denorfia in the OF, Dunn at 1B and a platoon at 2B. Why is it so hard?!?

klw
03-20-2006, 02:44 PM
The only thing that makes me happy about this is that I also like the Red Sox. Plus living in New England I may actually get to see Wily Mo play alot more this year. I think Arroyo will be a good addition but I would have liked more or that less was sent. I am also surprised it wasn't a bigger deal with Valentin involved as the Sox are supposedly shopping for back up catchers and there was that report the Reds were looking at the 3rd catcher in San Diego.

guttle11
03-20-2006, 02:45 PM
Womack now has one less guy to stand between him and PT considering that Freel is now more likely to back up an OF on a consistent basis. And if Womack gets two starts per week, that's a real issue- particularly when combined with Hatteberg stealing PA from better lineup options. No reason to slot Hatteberg at 1B and Dunn in the OF when you've got Denorfia available to play the OF on a daily basis.

In short, Narron and Krivsky are going to use crappy players more often than they should as a result of the trade.

While I understand your point, I think you are reading too much into Womack. It seems to me that they are intent to have Denorfia spend at least another half season in AAA, which I agree with. Womack is nothing more than a back-up. Him playing twice a week won't hinder anyone's devolopment. He's harmless this year.

Cedric
03-20-2006, 02:48 PM
While I understand your point, I think you are reading too much into Womack. It seems to me that they are intent to have Denorfia spend at least another half season in AAA, which I agree with. Womack is nothing more than a back-up. Him playing twice a week won't hinder anyone's devolopment. He's harmless this year.

Tony Womack on this roster is harmful to anyone that actually cares about watching decent baseball. And he's VERY scary with a manager like Narron.

SteelSD
03-20-2006, 02:49 PM
When basing the trade on Run Differential you have to look at who the other players are that would/would have played in their absence. I feel we give up more runs with the alternatives to Arroyo than we lose with the alternatives to Pena.

It's a pretty easy comp.

Certainly the Reds have 200 IP of 5.00 ERA baseball sitting on the current roster for Arroyo's slot. Matt Belisle could probably do 3/4 of that all on his own (and likely at a lower ERA than 5.00, but let's be realistic).

The difference between a 4.50 ERA and a 5.00 ERA is about 12 Runs over 200 IP. Offensively, Scott Hatteberg was worth 57 Runs per 600 PA in 2005. Even if Pena only maintained his 2005 numbers, he would be worth 80 Runs over 600 PA. That's a difference of 23 Runs. And again, we're not even factoring in probable improvement by Pena and potential continued age decline by Hatteberg.

So we've deleted 23 Runs and added most likely about 12. Now let's take a look at the following:

Ramon Ortiz 2005: 5.47 DIPS
Bronson Arroyo 2005: 4.57 DIPS

Looking at it from a perspective of Defense-Independent pitching, Ramon Ortiz' DIPS ends up at 122 Runs Allowed over 200 IP. Arroyo? 102 Runs Allowed. That 20 Run advantage to Arroyo is almost identical to the 23 Run loss we see for Pena vs. Hatteberg.

Knowing that, the Reds didn't have to trade Pena for Arroyo. They could have simply re-signed Ramon Ortiz and kept Pena as it would have been most likely a RD wash versus the Arroyo/Hatteberg combo. Ouch. Double ouch.

Basically, Krivsky just told us that he doesn't trust anyone currently available to throw 200 IP of 5.00 ERA ball by themselves or in combination (i.e. 150-to-180 IP SP + 20-to-50 IP RP). So he made a bold move to acquire less than what the Reds actually needed and didn't make a Win probability impact to the plus side.

That'll happen when your General Manager doesn't understand simple math.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 02:50 PM
Reds acquire righty Arroyo for Pena
By Justice B. Hill / MLB.com

SARASOTA, Fla. -- Outfielder Wily Mo Pena had just said his hellos to his Reds teammates Monday and had to then turn around and say his good-byes.

Fresh from the World Baseball Classic, Pena arrived in Reds camp and found out before the morning ended that he'd been traded to the Red Sox.

"I was surprised when they told me," he said. "It was like when they traded me from the Yankees to here. It's another team. I'll have to focus and be ready for anything."

In exchange for the 24-year-old Pena, the Reds picked up right-hander Bronson Arroyo, a pitcher who went 14-10 with a 4.51 ERA last season, and roughly $2 million to offset Arroyo's salary.

The trade boiled down to two teams that had excess pieces in one area and willing to trade one of those pieces to strengthen an area of weakness, Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said.

Krivsky said the trade came about very quickly when the two sides realized that they had mutual interests that could be served.

"They've got about seven starting pitchers in their minds, and I would agree with that," he said of the Red Sox. "They're dealing from an area of surplus. They needed a right-handed bat. "

He said Pena, long considered a talent that was ready to blossom, would fit in nicely to hitter-friendly Fenway Park, where he'll probably play a platoon role.

Adding the 29-year-old Arroyo makes the Reds stronger, because a Major League team never has too much pitching, Krivsky said.

"He brings us a proven starting pitcher," Krivksy said. "The last two years, he's averaged roughly 190 innings. He's taken the ball every fifth day. He's never been hurt.

"I feel real good about the addition to our rotation."

So does manager Jerry Narron.

"For us, we get a solid Major League starter that's pitched in big games and knows how to compete," Narron said. "He's a guy who can throw a pitch over on any count. You've got to be able to do that.

"He's a guy who can give you 200 innings, which we definitely need. One thing that we've been missing is guys that go deep in the games. We think he's going to be able to do that for us."

Narron said he's made no decision on where Arroyo will fit into the rotation. He said Aaron Harang will remain at the front of it, and Arroyo should slide into the No. 2 or No. 3 spot.

"Whether he'll pitch that first time out before (Brandon) Claussen or after him, I don't know," Narron said. "But he'll be right there somewhere at the top of it."

In trading Pena, Narron will get a more settled situation in left field and at first base. He said Adam Dunn will move to left, and Scott Hatteberg will pick up at-bats at first base.

Dunn and Hatteberg improve the defense at both positions. Narron said he hated to see Pena go, but ...

"I like Wily Mo," Narron said. "I think everybody here does. But that's just part of the game. We're just trying to do everything we can to get better."

Justice B. Hill is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060320&content_id=1356625&vkey=spt2006news&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Sure you did, Jerry. You hated him after he decided to represent his country. It wouldn't surprise me if Jerry went to Krivsky and asked him to trade Wily Mo.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 02:54 PM
I'm hoping Hatteberg goes hitless the rest of the Spring and then starts the season in a 0 for 50 slump. Same with Womack.

If Krivsky can acquire Ryan Shealy, Choi, or Carlos Pena then I will completely forget about this deal.

registerthis
03-20-2006, 02:55 PM
I just hope Arroyo doesnt come here and do what Milton did last year.

:eek:

There's nothing to indicate that he will, unlike the numbers Milton brought with him, which should have been packaged with yellow caution tape.

registerthis
03-20-2006, 02:56 PM
"For us, we get a solid Major League starter that's pitched in big games and knows how to compete," Narron said.

That's a Narron-ism if I ever heard one. Good Lord.

Highlifeman21
03-20-2006, 02:57 PM
SOme people on this board are never happy, just be glad we aren't on the phillies message board had philly done this deal the city would be on fire.

Entirely false. As I've learned living in the City of Brotherly Love, Philly fans of any sport will throw any player under the bus, regardless of fame.

They moved Thome to make way for Ryan Howard and you had every conceivable emotion/reaction to the trade for Rowand. Now the buzz around town is that they need to get rid of Abreu, but I guarantee there will be no flames in this city should that happen.

guttle11
03-20-2006, 02:59 PM
I'm hoping Hatteberg goes hitless the rest of the Spring and then starts the season in a 0 for 50 slump. Same with Womack.

If Krivsky can acquire Ryan Shealy, Choi, or Carlos Pena then I will completely forget about this deal.

You're down on this deal simply because Hatteberg and Womack, two guys who will only be here for a year, will play some more?

SteelSD
03-20-2006, 03:01 PM
While I understand your point, I think you are reading too much into Womack. It seems to me that they are intent to have Denorfia spend at least another half season in AAA, which I agree with. Womack is nothing more than a back-up. Him playing twice a week won't hinder anyone's devolopment. He's harmless this year.

Tony Womack playing at all is harmful. Make no mistake about that.

Secondly, Denorfia is going to be 26 in July. You either play him in the OF beginning on Opening Day 2006 with Dunn at 1B or you trade him. There's absolutely no point in sending him back to AAA.

Newman4
03-20-2006, 03:01 PM
I hate this trade. I am heartbroken. I am wounded. Wily Mo was the reason I could watch the Reds over the last couple of years without vomitting. Everyone acts like his D is so bad and he strikes out too much. I call BS. Dunn is worse in the field IMHO. He doesn't have the speed or the arm Wily Mo has and he also strikes out more than ANYONE. Pena could carry the team when he was hot. And he usually had too, since everyone else was injured or busy sucking like Kearns. I couldn't wait to see him get a full season in without worring about being benched and with JR and Dunn in the same lineup. Remember how the guy came up with a messed up contract and we could send him down. He had to learn without playing as much as he could but when he got his chance he started to shine. I truely believe that his career will be great. And I will miss him. I will miss the MAMMOTH homers that could make me smile during a lot. I will never forget him for what he gave me, my best Reds memory. I was there on his bobblehead night when he hit a monster game winning homer, 2 days back from the DL.

I can understand we need pitching, but we did need his bat. Everyone talks about how he is not "proven". Someone show me how "proven" Kearns is. Someone tell me how much power will be there if Griffey goes down again. I would rather trade Dunn for a TRUE BIG name pitcher and roll the dice with Wily Mo. Don't get me wrong, I like Dunn, love Jr, and I enjoy watching Kearns sometimes. But I thought this was one of the reasons we traded Casey. That trade took a little piece of me when it happened, but it made sense to me. They needed the $$ and it cleared a spot for Kearns/Wily Mo to play everyday. I could deal with it. I could deal with a JR. trade, possibly in the same way. A Dunn deal, I would understand if we got an ace. But now I'm heart broken. Does it make the Reds a better team? Maybe, maybe not. Will Wily Mo reach his potential? I hope so, but I wish he could have tried to do it here. He was like a lottery ticket with the first 2 numbers matching. He gave me hope, something to dream about. Something to look foward to. I am still in shock and almost feel like crying. It seems like everytime someone becomes special to me or seems to enjoy playing in Cincinnati we trade them. Aaron Boone, Dimitri Young, Sean Casey, Chris Reitsma, and you could almost put Joe Randa in that category. Anyway, today is a sad day for me.

That's a great post. I feel almost the same way. You guys are looking at the newest Red Sox fan right here.

That aside, has anyone suggested letting Valentin play 1B instead of Hatteberg?

Highlifeman21
03-20-2006, 03:01 PM
any reason to support that?


Hatteberg is cheaper mainly, and the money hopefully could be more wisely spent. Defensively, Casey and Hatteberg are a wash IMO. At least with Hatteberg, it allows for the chance for Dunn @ 1B and Freel in the OF, if he's not playing 2B. If we still had Casey, we'd see less of Freel, IMO.

Bottomline, having Hatteberg leads to more Freel, which is better than more Casey.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2006, 03:01 PM
You're down on this deal simply because Hatteberg and Womack, two guys who will only be here for a year, will play some more?

Yeah, plus we traded for a pitcher with a career ERA over 5 in the National League. I think we could have gotten more.

traderumor
03-20-2006, 03:04 PM
Yeah, plus we traded for a pitcher with a career ERA over 5 in the National League. I think we could have gotten more.Don't play fast and loose with the stats. Those NL numbers were earned primarily under the age of 25. Barely relevant at this point.

westofyou
03-20-2006, 03:04 PM
Everyone acts like his D is so bad and he strikes out too much. I call BS. Dunn is worse in the field IMHO. He doesn't have the speed or the arm Wily Mo has and he also strikes out more than ANYONE. Pena could carry the team when he was hot.

1 k every 3 ab's - 1 BB every 17, never hit above .280 anywhere and fielded like he had a ashtray for a glove.

Pena couldn't carry Dunn's jock much alone the team.

Be disgusted but at least note the concept of reality.

dougdirt
03-20-2006, 03:04 PM
I'd argue that the last trade that resulted in a win was the Rob Bell to TEX for Ruben Mateo and Edwin, and it took what? 4 years for that to be a win?

Jose Guillen for Harang.
Aaron Boone for Brandon Claussen.

I get the point though.