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View Full Version : Scouts impressed with Milton. Now trade him.



OnBaseMachine
03-24-2006, 09:05 AM
Scouts are impressed, now offer him up for a prospect. Get that salary off the books and free up some room to make a run at a FA pitcher next offseason.

Scouts on Milton

Scouts Row was bedazzled by what they saw in Hammond Stadium Wednesday night from Reds lefthander Eric Milton — five innings, one run, three hits, no walks, six strikeouts.

"Looked like a 20-game winner," said one American League scout.

"Phenomenal," said another AL scout. "I had to take my hat off to what I saw."

"All the scouts who said they didn't like him last year sure like him now," said a National League scout.

Another scout, also in attendance, preferred to talk about bullpenners Matt Belisle and Todd Coffey and said, "Those two impress me with their arms, their stuff and their control." Rotation alignment

As of this moment, barring injuries or natural disasters, manager Jerry Narron has his rotation aligned this way: Righthander Aaron Harang on Opening Day, righthander Bronson Arroyo in Game 2, followed by lefthanders Brandon Claussen, Eric Milton and Dave Williams.

Aaron is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in three starts, Claussen is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four starts, Milton is 1-1 with a 7.94 ERA in two starts, Williams is 1-2 with a 7.20 in four starts and a relief appearance. Arroyo makes his first Cincinnati start Saturday and was 1-2 with a 10.03 ERA in four starts for the Red Sox.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/content/sports/reds/daily/0324redsnotesweb.html

REDREAD
03-24-2006, 10:13 AM
If what the scouts say is true (that's he's turned a corner and will be much improved), maybe it would be better to hold him to the deadline instead of discarding him for a bucket of balls. IMO, this team needs an influx of prospects more than it needs payflex.

Of course, I don't know the truth at this point. Last season, IIRC, Milton had 3-4 good starts, so the game they are refering to might be an isolated incident (if that's the case, I agree, dump him now)

vermonter
03-24-2006, 10:19 AM
When I close my eyes and try to think of which organization might be dumb enough, rich enough and/or desperate enough to trade for Eric Milton, I envision the Yankees. Seriously, if Pavano doesn't come back from injury and faced with having to give 30 starts to Jaret Wright and/or Aaron Small, I could see this happening, especially if the Tampa faction again starts meddling in the player personnel affairs.

Just a thought while the sap is running ...

OnBaseMachine
03-24-2006, 10:25 AM
If what the scouts say is true (that's he's turned a corner and will be much improved), maybe it would be better to hold him to the deadline instead of discarding him for a bucket of balls. IMO, this team needs an influx of prospects more than it needs payflex.

Of course, I don't know the truth at this point. Last season, IIRC, Milton had 3-4 good starts, so the game they are refering to might be an isolated incident (if that's the case, I agree, dump him now)

IMO, you trade him now. Don't give him a chance to go out and suck again. The best you are going to get out of Milton is probably an ERA in the 4.60 to 4.80 range anyway.

KoryMac5
03-24-2006, 10:33 AM
IMO, you trade him now. Don't give him a chance to go out and suck again. The best you are going to get out of Milton is probably an ERA in the 4.60 to 4.80 range anyway.

Every Gm in the MLB will be saying that to Wayne K, when he offers Milton to any team including the Yankees, nobody is going to take a chance on him until they see him consistently pitching well. Face it whether we like it or not Milton will be with us.

princeton
03-24-2006, 10:56 AM
as I said earlier in the week: he'll do a lot better. Pitchers often regress to the mean.

now, find a middle glove, haul Jr to first base, and most of all work on that closer problem

vaticanplum
03-24-2006, 11:06 AM
IMO, you trade him now. Don't give him a chance to go out and suck again.

Scouts can be "excited" all they want, but as it stands right Eric Milton's major leage ERA is right where it left off at the beginning of last October. When it comes down to a deal, spring training will not be enough to convince anyone to take him for anything remotely worthwhile.

This article was in the Dayton Daily News...sometimes I wonder if these aren't meant to pump up Reds fans rather than having any real value in the baseball world. I could probably go out on the street right now, show them a video of Milton's last start and get them to say he's phenomenal, but it doesn't really mean anything.

UPRedsFan
03-24-2006, 11:11 AM
In my opinion, after what we saw on tv the other night and what the scouts at the game were saying about him, now is not the time to trade Milton! Let's see if he can put together a strong first half. There's a chance he could come out of the gate very strong. Let's ride that for awhile, and unless we're in contention, then trade him for higher value.

registerthis
03-24-2006, 11:14 AM
I don't see the harm in letting Milton pitch for the reds for a few months. His value isn't going to drop much more than it is right now, and if he manages to pitch effectively, we might actually get something of value. I prefer giving a player away for nothing if other alternatives are available.

redsmetz
03-24-2006, 11:47 AM
I guess this is what is most maddening about these boards since I've joined. If, in fact, Milton has turned a corner, then lets ride that all the way. We signed him to be an effective pitcher and if is now an effective (i.e. winning) pitcher, why on earth would we want to eliminate what we needed in the first place? I hope he's a blasted 17 game winner, as Kent Mercker suggested. I'll dance in the streets if he's that and I don't want him pitching elsewhere if he's going to be successful. The hating on Milton gets a little old around here, IMHO.

:(

M2
03-24-2006, 11:50 AM
Do you think Ernest Borgnine got back on the U.S.S. Poseidon once he got off it?

Milton began to bleed velocity after a single inning when he should have been fresh as a daisy. Much ado about nothing, IMO.

If someone's stupid enough to trade for him, then I'd make him theirs. First patsy who asked could have him for nothing.

BRM
03-24-2006, 11:53 AM
I guess this is what is most maddening about these boards since I've joined. If, in fact, Milton has turned a corner, then lets ride that all the way. We signed him to be an effective pitcher and if is now an effective (i.e. winning) pitcher, why on earth would we want to eliminate what we needed in the first place? I hope he's a blasted 17 game winner, as Kent Mercker suggested. I'll dance in the streets if he's that and I don't want him pitching elsewhere if he's going to be successful. The hating on Milton gets a little old around here, IMHO.

:(

I think the point is that if Milton can string together enough good starts to garner interest, then the Reds should unload him before he tanks again. Even if Milton pitches to career norms, he's still a below average pitcher. If he can pitch well enough to force a few GMs to come calling, Krivsky should send him packing. The Reds need an influx of young talent more than they need a below average SP making over $8M per year.

redsfan30
03-24-2006, 11:57 AM
I know I'm going to be in the minority here, but if he pitches well I keep him. I think it's going to take more than one start for teams to be knocking down the door to try and get him.

top6
03-24-2006, 12:07 PM
Even if Milton ends up being terrible this year, as I'm sure he will, this article at least allows me to envision a scenario where the Reds finish over .500.

redsmetz
03-24-2006, 12:08 PM
I think the point is that if Milton can string together enough good starts to garner interest, then the Reds should unload him before he tanks again. Even if Milton pitches to career norms, he's still a below average pitcher. If he can pitch well enough to force a few GMs to come calling, Krivsky should send him packing. The Reds need an influx of young talent more than they need a below average SP making over $8M per year.

And never in the history of baseball has there been a pitcher who became a better pitcher and remained so? If he's gotten it together in the way he pitched the other night (and I acknowledge that is a big "if"), I'd like to be able to have that New & Improved guy on our squad. I'm placing caveats there, but I'd like to hope we've gotten the good pitcher now.

I do understand what you're saying in your comments though.

BRM
03-24-2006, 12:14 PM
Anything is possible. I'd rather the Reds sell high for once though. The odds of Milton returning to a career norm of mediocrity is much higher than him becoming a better pitcher in my opinion.

M2
03-24-2006, 12:16 PM
And never in the history of baseball has there been a pitcher who became a better pitcher and remained so? If he's gotten it together in the way he pitched the other night (and I acknowledge that is a big "if"), I'd like to be able to have that New & Improved guy on our squad. I'm placing caveats there, but I'd like to hope we've gotten the good pitcher now.

Milton was a bad pitcher for three years before the Reds got him and he's got a degenerative knee condition that will never get better. Hope all you want. He's toast.

Really the only thing you can hope for is that some other GM will buy into claptrap like what we just saw in that DDN piece and take a him and big chunk of his salary off your hands. My suggestion is don't wait until Milton's next start if that GM is out there because he's never more than five days away from a debacle.

REDREAD
03-24-2006, 12:34 PM
If someone's stupid enough to trade for him, then I'd make him theirs. First patsy who asked could have him for nothing.

I can see that reasoning.. my earlier caveat is "if Milton had legitimately improved".. Now deep down, I doubt he has. But hypothetically, even if he just improved to "average", it might be worth riding him a 1/2 season and hope to flip him for an asset, because as I said earlier.. the Reds need an influx of young talent. Payflex isn't going to help you get that. Flipping veterans potentially can.

I know it's pure fantasy to expect Milton to pull a season like Neagle did in 2000.

M2
03-24-2006, 12:37 PM
I can see that reasoning.. my earlier caveat is "if Milton had legitimately improved".. Now deep down, I doubt he has. But hypothetically, even if he just improved to "average", it might be worth riding him a 1/2 season and hope to flip him for an asset, because as I said earlier.. the Reds need an influx of young talent. Payflex isn't going to help you get that. Flipping veterans potentially can.

I know it's pure fantasy to expect Milton to pull a season like Neagle did in 2000.

Dude hasn't been average since 2001.

registerthis
03-24-2006, 12:42 PM
My suggestion is don't wait until Milton's next start if that GM is out there because he's never more than five days away from a debacle.

His entire 2005 season was a debacle. The only way his value goes any lower is if his knee blows out completely. Otherwise, if the Reds are lucky and Milton is able to string together a decent April/May, they might actually get some return for him.

I want Milton gone, mind you--no argument there. I just think, if he's shown flashes of at least being able to pitch decently, why not try to see if he can do that for a couple of months and unload him to some team with deep pockets and a jump-the-gun GM?

M2
03-24-2006, 12:47 PM
His entire 2005 season was a debacle. The only way his value goes any lower is if his knee blows out completely. Otherwise, if the Reds are lucky and Milton is able to string together a decent April/May, they might actually get some return for him.

I want Milton gone, mind you--no argument there. I just think, if he's shown flashes of at least being able to pitch decently, why not try to see if he can do that for a couple of months and unload him to some team with deep pockets and a jump-the-gun GM?

Well, seeing that appealing alternatives are not currently on hand, the team will try that regardless. I'm just stating that if it were up to me the first team that made any sort of offer for him would have him on that very same day. If another team wants Eric Milton, it would get Eric Milton.

Caveat Emperor
03-24-2006, 12:49 PM
His entire 2005 season was a debacle. The only way his value goes any lower is if his knee blows out completely. Otherwise, if the Reds are lucky and Milton is able to string together a decent April/May, they might actually get some return for him.

I want Milton gone, mind you--no argument there. I just think, if he's shown flashes of at least being able to pitch decently, why not try to see if he can do that for a couple of months and unload him to some team with deep pockets and a jump-the-gun GM?

"Lots of prospects...Lots of prospects...no meltdown...no meltdown....STOP!"

http://techakke.com/pix/0905whammy.jpg

princeton
03-24-2006, 01:40 PM
Casey's performance/contract ratio made him untradeable for a while, then his performance improved -- by which time we didn't want to trade him. Then, his performance fell again.

one key is to have a price that you can live with and sell when you hear it. But here's an even bigger key: often that price isn't offered until after the player's performance improves and seems to be worth even more, in which case you have to use self-discipline and remember how bad the guy can be, too.

I suspect that Wayne K. will have more self-discipline than DanO. But we'll see. And, what's his price-- we'll sell for a ham sandwich but only pay half of Milton's contract? None of it? Half of it but we need a young arm in return? How good of a young arm?

M2
03-24-2006, 01:43 PM
one key is to have a price that you can live with and sell when you hear it. But here's an even bigger key: often that price isn't offered until after the player's performance improves and seems to be worth even more, in which case you have to use self-discipline and remember how bad the guy can be, too.

Can't be said better than that.

registerthis
03-24-2006, 01:58 PM
Sure, I understand the wishes to run Milton out of two on the first train available. But, if we get a call today and someone offers a Single-A prospect and asks the Reds to pick up some of Milton's salary, for example, I'm not sure i'd pull the string on that deal. the reason being, if he pitches effectively through, say, May, you may find someone willing to offer a AA prospect and take on all of his salary. If Milton blows up again, as he did last year, then his trade value really hasn't decreased and you could still find that team willing to take Milton if the Reds pick up part of the contract.

like I said earlier, he has shown flashes--flashes--of being able to pitch effectively. Let's see if he can do that for a couple of months, then unload him before he tanks like we all know he will.