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View Full Version : Hope from Spring Training numbers.



Eric_Davis
03-25-2006, 02:31 PM
It doesn't matter too much what hitters do during spring training. You pretty much know what you're going to get when the regular season starts.

With pitchers, however, it's a little different.


Everyone has their own ideas on what stat is important (when you don't have the opportunity to view the pitchers in person, a stat is all you have to go off of) to assess how a pitcher will look in April and May from their Spring Training appearances.

For me over the decades, it's always been the WHIP stat, long before they even came up with the stat itself.

I really don't care if a pitcher gives up a homerun or a single or a walk to a hitter because the pitcher during spring is working on "his" fundamentals", not on which pitch to fool a hitter with.

Consequently you're going to throw a 2-0 fastball to a Manny Ramirez or another favorite pitch to a different hitter that he launches out of the park or drives to the gap for a double.

Having watched the transition over the years of the number of batters reaching base per inning pitched and the pattern it shows to success during April and May, I find it to be the most solid stat, in fact, the only stat I pay attention to during Spring.

With that said, it's disheartening to see how horrendous the entire REDS pitching staff has been, excluding the exceptional Spring that Claussen has had.

There are a couple of players not projected to make the Opening Day roster that have done well, too. But the projected starting 11 or 12 pitchers have been horrible.

The Good News:

Stats can be heavily weighed by just a couple of bad early outings in Spring, so even more stock is put into what happened during their last outing, as it's usually against a lineup of opposing starters, too, and the pitcher is also allowed to stretch out his innings.

With Milton's and Williams last outings being successful, and the addition of Arroyo adding another potential winner to the staff, there is hope that our starters can leave duing the 6th and 7th innings in April and May with leads of 4-3, 5-4, and 6-4.

I doubt if we'll score any fewer runs than last year, and I believe that we'll score even more. So, if the staff can bring it's overall ERA down to about 4.40, we should win 85 games this year, putting us in contention for a Wild-Card spot when September 1st rolls around.

TeamBoone
03-25-2006, 06:41 PM
Harang has pitched well.

roby
03-25-2006, 06:58 PM
Amen, Boonie. Harang has been nearly perfect!

marcshoe
03-25-2006, 08:39 PM
With Milton's and Williams last outings being successful, and the addition of Arroyo adding another potential winner to the staff, there is hope that our starters can leave duing the 6th and 7th innings in April and May with leads of 4-3, 5-4, and 6-4.


I'm just encouraged by the idea that the starters look like they'll be able to pitch into the later innings more often. This can only make the bullpen more effective.

I think there are some very good indications of progress here. I still want to see one more starter added before I start thinking about a wild card, or even a winning record, though. There's still too much uncertainty, and too much dependence on pitchers such as Arroyo, Milton, and Williams. For the Reds as they stand now to contend, two of these three would have to step up. That may be a tall order.

But yes, things are looking better.

The other positive about this is that if the Reds get off to a fast start like they have the last couple of years, ownership will likely be more proactive about acquiring the pieces needed to continue improvement.

UPRedsFan
03-25-2006, 09:18 PM
Agreed. For the first time in a long time we won't be in the cellar for pitching statistics. Starters will go longer more often, bullpen has more balance so it won't implode. Narron should use a Sparky Anderson approach to the pen this year - don't be afraid to pull them quick if things go bad. Coffey, Wagner, Burns, Mercker, Weathers, White, Hammond may be inconsistent but not all on the same night.

reds44
03-25-2006, 09:37 PM
Agreed. For the first time in a long time we won't be in the cellar for pitching statistics. Starters will go longer more often, bullpen has more balance so it won't implode. Narron should use a Sparky Anderson approach to the pen this year - don't be afraid to pull them quick if things go bad. Coffey, Wagner, Burns, Mercker, Weathers, White, Hammond may be inconsistent but not all on the same night.
There is hope!!!

Honestly, in the short time Krivs has been here I really like what he has done with the pitching.

paulrichjr
03-25-2006, 10:32 PM
There is hope!!!

Honestly, in the short time Krivs has been here I really like what he has done with the pitching.


Honestly what has he done? Almost every single one of these guys are DanO guys or our GMs for a week. I haven't seen Krivs do much of anything except make a lot of moves that make me scratch my head and wonder what he is doing. I think he has a plan but I can't give him credit for anything yet.

Eric_Davis
03-26-2006, 12:24 AM
My Apologies....I meant Harang....not Claussen.

Hoosier Red
03-26-2006, 12:43 AM
I doubt if we'll score any fewer runs than last year, and I believe that we'll score even more. So, if the staff can bring it's overall ERA down to about 4.40, we should win 85 games this year, putting us in contention for a Wild-Card spot when September 1st rolls around.

ED, that last point caught my eye. Most everything I've read predicts it is nearly impossible for the Reds to score as many runs this year, why do you think they'll score more?

Just curious,

Eric_Davis
03-26-2006, 02:30 PM
Hoosier, I feel that we didn't have any players that had a year that wouldn't be lessened due to age. Ed E of course....Freel should get more at-bats and with more at-bats be more consistent....Dunn just keeps getting better....Junior's resurgence wasn't due to health as all the people outside of and including some inside of Cincinnati want to suggest, but his improvement was due to his willingness to go to the other side of the field (I made comments on this board last April that Junior was the Junior I knew back in '93-'94 when he'd wait on pitches and take a single instead of swinging for the fence...that even though he wasn't hitting homers, not to worry, because his swing was correct and that they'd soon come.) So, Junior will be as good as last year....We still have both of our catcher's...though LaRue is one whose numbers could drop off....How can Kearns do anything BUT get better?..Lopez is the real deal, though our own manager was blind to see it, and consequently sent us into the cellar by insisting on playing Aurilia, for why I have no idea....Casey's numbers are easily replaceable by 70 other first baseman in this league....and it's appearing that there are enough outfield prospects to make a dent in Wily Mo's numbers, though his are the hardest to replace...hopefully this Wise-guy gets more at-bats than Womack, Denorforia, or Aurilia.

It's just hard to see any drop off in the runs scored department.

TeamBoone
03-26-2006, 02:33 PM
Anybody surprised that McCracken made the OF instead of Denorfia? I was.

flyer85
03-26-2006, 02:38 PM
Anybody surprised that McCracken made the OF instead of Denorfia? I was.The roster is far from set at this point.

TeamBoone
03-26-2006, 04:40 PM
I was going by what is suggested here:


ROSTER RAMIFICATIONS: With Wise out, Quinton McCracken appears to be a lock for the fourth outfielder spot.

That means 12 of the 13 position players are set:

Outfielders (4) - Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Austin Kearns and McCracken.

Infielders (6) - Rich Aurilia, Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Freel, Scott Hatteberg, Felipe Lopez and Tony Womack.

Catchers (2) - Jason LaRue and Javier Valentin.

Jacob Cruz, Matt Kata, Frank Menechino and David Ross are in the mix for the final roster spot.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060326/SPT04/603260375

Eric_Davis
03-26-2006, 04:43 PM
You made me look for links around here that talk about Wise. Didn't know he was already considered not part of the opening day roster. Too bad with such a great spring.

TC81190
03-26-2006, 05:09 PM
You made me look for links around here that talk about Wise. Didn't know he was already considered not part of the opening day roster. Too bad with such a great spring.

He had an ankle injury.