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TeamBoone
03-25-2006, 09:08 PM
2006-03-21
Reds Lop Off a Wily in More Ways Than One

The Cincinnati Reds will start the season Wily-less, but will have another mediocre pitcher to shove into their abysmal rotation.

They traded Wily Mo Pena to the Red Sox for Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo is 29 and has had one decent full season (2004—10-9 with a 121 adjusted ERA) since breaking into the Pirate rotation in 2000. Those Pirates seem to crank out the mediocre pitchers, don't they? Arroyo was about a league-average pitcher last year (98 adjusted OPS) and just signed a three-year, $11.25 M contract this winter.

Pena had a very good year subbing for most of the Red outfield in 2004 (26 homers, .527 slugging percentage, and 121 adjusted OPS). Last season was a push, but he is just 24 and should start to blossom over the next couple of years. Oh, and he made just $440 K last year and will not be eligible for free agency until 2008. The worst you can say about him is that he doesn't know how to draw a base on balls.

Pena plays all three outfield spots and should move into an instant platoon in right with lefty Trot Nixon. The Sox have never seemed enamored or Nixon even in his best seasons and 2005 was not one of them. He could start to decline quickly at 32. Expect Epstein to start shopping him should Pena fit in well.

Arroyo was probably not going to make the rotation given the development of Jon Papelbon. So he would have become an expensive albatross who would be at best a long reliever and rotation insurance.

The best you can say for Arroyo going to the Reds is that he will fit in well with the rest of their rotation dreck. I guess being saddled with Eric Milton's execrable contract wasn;t enough.

Arroyo could start anywhere from number two to number five (I guess Harang is the number one). What's the difference? If he keeps his ERA under 5.00 in Cincy, I'll be surprised. Not that it'll matter. He'll be in the rotation if he still has a pulse by the All-Star break. It seems that the Reds have five guys destined for 10-14 records with a 4.00-5.00 ERA. Bless 'em.

So on the surface, the Red Sox get a younger, cheaper, better. They jettison a player that would not have a major role this year or in the future for a player who should make a significant impact this year and for years to come.

But if you delve deeper it's even worse for the Reds. First, it effectively reverses just about the only decent deal the Reds have made this century. They originally acquired Pena from the Yankees in the Drew Henson deal, a major embarrassment for New York.

Wayne Krivsky, the new GM, carries on in the proud tradition of his predecessor, Dan O'Brien. That is, he got fleeced. The Reds were once a GM machine cranking out in rapid succession Larry MacPhail, Warren Giles, Gabe Paul, Bill DeWitt, and Bob Howsam. Now, the can't find a credible rendition of a general manager.

This line from Krivsky says it all, "Signing Hatteberg was the key" to the deal.

You see, the Reds needed to jettison Pena to move Adam Dunn back to left field in order to clear a starting spot for Scott Hatteberg. Oh, it all makes sense now!?! It was a trade of Pena for that stellar veteran Scott Hatteberg. Incredible.

Even if Hatteberg were Lou Gehrig, he's 36. Pena's 24. Even when he's not involved, Billy Beane gets the last laugh. Hatteberg was a washed up backup catcher whose career was resurrected by Beane when he became a role-playing first baseman in Oakland. Beane held onto him until it was clear that he was done. He signs with the Reds and now becomes probably the worst starting first baseman in baseball.

He replaces fan fave Sean Casey, who though overrated, had his points. The Reds trade him for another mediocre Pittsburgh pitcher (Dave Williams), and then putz around until eventually they replace him with Hatteberg? Way to bring in the fans! At least you can justify it with shifting Dunn there. What a screwed up team!

Krivsky further effuses, "They needed a right-handed bat to complement Trot Nixon. It all fell into place rather quickly. Theo Epstein and I have been talking about this for three or four days." Sheez, he sounds like a fantasy GM trading Barry Bonds for Andy Ashby circa 1999. Of course, it fell in place quickly. Epstein got him to bite at the bait and then reeled him in.

I hope the fans remember this trade fondly around the All-Star break when the Reds are fighting the Pirates for last in the NL Central, Ryan Freel is starting at two of the outfield spots (when was the last time Griffey, Dunn, and Kearns didn't go down with a season-ending injury at some point in the year?), Hatteberg is stinking up the lineup, and Williams and Arroyo are major albatrosses in the rotation.

The Reds are a perfect team. Perfectly awful. The only question is how bad they will be. They should compete with the Marlins, Rockies, and Pirates for worst team in the NL. Florida will be hard to beat since they have a different agenda besides trying to win. Krivsky's really going to have to try to out-awful them, but I know he can do it.


You can reply by clicking on this link:
http://mikesrants.baseballtoaster.com/archives/333958.html

KronoRed
03-25-2006, 09:15 PM
I don't disagree with the insanity of making the deal so that Hatteberg could start, but I don't see it as being that horrible a deal in terms of talent.

Reds1
03-25-2006, 09:36 PM
I can't wait to see the writer of that junk eat his words. Just a troll!

Johnny Footstool
03-25-2006, 09:41 PM
I can't wait to see the writer of that junk eat his words. Just a troll!

He's not trolling. He didn't come here and post those words himself.

He's entitled to his opinion. And he could be right.

Reds1
03-25-2006, 09:43 PM
Just an expression. As a fan I just hope he's Very, Very wrong.

guttle11
03-25-2006, 09:50 PM
Ahh sexual innuendos, the sign of a great baseball writer.

deltachi8
03-25-2006, 10:12 PM
I think we all hope he is very wrong.

Problem is I think he is more right than wrong on this one.

dougdirt
03-25-2006, 10:38 PM
deltachi, I agree completely. I hate the Pena for Arroyo trade as much as Bronson does. Dunn moving to the outfield for Hatteberg at first boggles my mind.

Hoosier Red
03-25-2006, 11:06 PM
Arroyo could start anywhere from number two to number five (I guess Harang is the number one). What's the difference? If he keeps his ERA under 5.00 in Cincy, I'll be surprised. Not that it'll matter. He'll be in the rotation if he still has a pulse by the All-Star break. It seems that the Reds have five guys destined for 10-14 records with a 4.00-5.00 ERA. Bless 'em.

Why would it be a surprise if he keeps his ERA under 5.00?
And am I the only one who would be happy with if the starters combined ERA is under 5?
With this offense, that would probably get the team to about .500 ball.

I just don't get how people are against this trade.

dougdirt
03-25-2006, 11:15 PM
Hoosier Red, I would be suprised if it stays under 5.00. As a starter the last two years, he has been a flyball pitcher. He has a bad defense behind him. He also has looked pretty bad this spring.

As for being against the trade, it comes down to this for me.
We traded Pena at a very low point, for a guy with basically no upside. He is basically just as good/bad as Dave Williams was last year. It isnt much of an upgrade to our staff if he performs to his norm of a 4.50 ERA. It also means we hurt the offense with Hatteberg getting PT now.

Reds1
03-25-2006, 11:17 PM
I've watched the last two games on FSO and listened to all the interviews and commentary. I got the vibe that the players liked the trade. They all thought Wily Mo was a great guy, but everyone thinks Arroyo can pitch. The Red Sox boards were pissed with this trade from what I saw. I don't think everyone was against this trade. Something needed to be done. I'm sure we've been trying to land someone better, but as we aren't adding payroll this seems like a logical trade that will help the team. We didn't have a #5 guy at all and Arroyo is probaby dare I say even better then a 5. No we aren't going to win it all and probably not the division with this team, but as they proved today they will be fun to watch.

Also, I think Aurilia will be getting just as much time at 1st as Hatteberg. Well, that is if we don't make another trade which I would not be surprised to see.

Also, besides the error Womack actually played ok today.

edabbs44
03-25-2006, 11:17 PM
Everyone is in awe of Pena's power. That's all he has. Maybe he turnes in to a .275-35-95 hitter, but he's a butcher in the field and Ks 200 times per year.

Aronchis
03-25-2006, 11:23 PM
We traded WMP before his value was gone completely. His legs won't allow for a long productive career IMO.

pedro
03-25-2006, 11:33 PM
whatever.

Reds1
03-25-2006, 11:34 PM
We traded WMP before his value was gone completely. His legs won't allow for a long productive career IMO.

This is a good point. I'm not sure if something is up with his legs, but he gets hurt running all the time. I was hopeful when he was a Red, but was worried. The trade just opens it back up to being able to play Dunn in LF where he wants and then platoon all those guys at 1st and 2nd. However, I think we'll pick up someone for 1st. Just a feeling.

Hoosier Red
03-25-2006, 11:36 PM
Hoosier Red, I would be suprised if it stays under 5.00. As a starter the last two years, he has been a flyball pitcher. He has a bad defense behind him. He also has looked pretty bad this spring.

Doug,
Arroyo hasn't had an ERA over 5 since 2001, is turning 29, posted 200 innings for the first time in his career last year, and is facing a new league. Why do you expect him to blow up to over a 5 ERA?

Describe a "flyball pitcher," from the stats I've seen he seems to get GB:FB fairly equally, (.98) if I remember correctly.

Also though I agree the defense is bad, GABP may actually help him.
From what I've read, the fact that there is little to no room in the power alleys mitigates the outfield defenses lack of range.
Despite giving up a few cheap home runs, isn't it true Arroyo will benefit from giving up fewer doubles and base hits.

Superdude
03-25-2006, 11:44 PM
I think that believing that this guy isn't right is nothing more than wishful thinking of a fan. Let's face it, Krivsky is starting to look like a more courageous version Dan O'. Stockpiling mediocre veterans, trading people away for more mediocre veterans... I'm just not seeing the light at the end of this tunnel. :cry:

captainmorgan07
03-25-2006, 11:49 PM
bunch of horse crap that article is the media is under rating us and over rating the pirates and brewers i live in teh pittsburgh area the moves they made aint that great they scored the fewest runs in the majors last year they didn't do much to help that out there pitching is young talented but in experinced which will hurt them brewers also young can they live up to the hype i don't think they can we have a better ball club who should respond to nobody giving them a chance to even be competitive yes we need good pitching but it doesn't hav eto be great pitching all it has to do is keep us in games we have a good enough offense to win teh close ones bullpen will do well aslong as they designate one guy to become the closer whcih shouldn't take more than 2 or 3 weeks our defense is not that bad yes ede is young but bucky dent is working with him womack hasn't been a bad defender over his career neither has aurilla hatteberg is a more than capable first baseman griffey may be old and his range might have diminished but he still makes the plays dunn isn't that bad of a lf and kearns has a cannon in right

Reds1
03-25-2006, 11:52 PM
I think that believing that this guy isn't right is nothing more than wishful thinking of a fan. Let's face it, Krivsky is starting to look like a more courageous version Dan O'. Stockpiling mediocre veterans, trading people away for more mediocre veterans... I'm just not seeing the light at the end of this tunnel. :cry:

It's hard to tell at this point. It's tough to take over at GM when he did. I'm impressed for getting someone as good as Arroyo at this point and not doing a Milton type deal. He's cheap, can pitching 200+ innings, is not a fly ball pitcher, and is a definate upgrade. I'm not sure why he's going out and picking up all these guys, but I"m hoping its for another trade. Bill Parcells is the same on the cowboys. Try to upgrade as many positions as possible and see what happens. Hatteberg would have been a great bench player, but now that he's the starter - which I"m not sure about, it seems the board is very sour on him. I think that situation will work itself out. It's not like Casey's offense is going to be that hard to replace.

cincrazy
03-25-2006, 11:54 PM
krivsky hasn't been on the job long. give the man time. i think he know's what he's doing. for all of the hype surrounding wily mo, the guy's horrible in the field, and strikes out WAY too much. it'll be interesting to see how he adjusts to the AL. it could possibly take years to see how this deal will play out, and who gets the best of it. i'm going to give it some time before judging

dougdirt
03-26-2006, 12:00 AM
Doug,
Arroyo hasn't had an ERA over 5 since 2001, is turning 29, posted 200 innings for the first time in his career last year, and is facing a new league. Why do you expect him to blow up to over a 5 ERA?
Well, as a strictly starting pitcher(before then he only had 29 starts in 59 games) the last two years, Arroyo has given up 59 more flyball outs than groundball outs. Last year, it was 49 more flyball outs than groundball outs. Add that with our ballpark being home run friendly, I see him giving up a few more home runs here than he did last year. Couple that in with a bad defense behind him, and he is going to be giving up more hits than last year. More hits + more home runs=more runs. Just my opinion and I hope I am wrong, but thats how I see it happening.



Describe a "flyball pitcher," from the stats I've seen he seems to get GB:FB fairly equally, (.98) if I remember correctly.
For his career that may be true, but the last two years....its not true. I prefer recent history, especially when it has trended the same way the last three seasons.



Also though I agree the defense is bad, GABP may actually help him.
From what I've read, the fact that there is little to no room in the power alleys mitigates the outfield defenses lack of range.
Despite giving up a few cheap home runs, isn't it true Arroyo will benefit from giving up fewer doubles and base hits.
He may give up fewer doubles, but I am not sure baout base hits. I have read that Arroyo gave up a ton of doubles off of the monster last year. I have no proof of it, as I havent done the research, but just read it. If that is the case though, with the way the ball flies out of our park I dont like that. The monster is close, but the ball launches here.

TeamBoone
03-26-2006, 12:52 AM
I think we all hope he is very wrong.

Problem is I think he is more right than wrong on this one.

My problem wasn't with what he said (most things anyway), but with how he said them. It was extremely disrespectful. I don't think I'd want to see any team's deficiencies described in that manner.

Plus, he apparently isn't totally educated on the Reds as he seems to believe that Adam Dunn is injury prone.

And it would have been nice if he'd thrown in a bone or two; the team does have a few redeeming qualities.

harangatang
03-26-2006, 01:23 AM
I hate the Pena for Arroyo trade as much as Bronson does. Dunn moving to the outfield for Hatteberg at first boggles my mind.
Why? I don't understand how this is a bad trade from any point view. If Arroyo put up good numbers aginst the toughest division in baseball in a pitchers why do you think there is going to be another implosion? The offenses of the NL Central have some good bats but nothing like the Tejadas, Sheffields, A-Rods, etc. that you have to face day in and day out. Plus Arroyo doesn't have to contend with pitching to the DH in National League. The Reds got as servicable and relatively young arm that will help solidfy this rotation. With Wily Mo gone that improves the defense in LF and at 1B. Whoa, what's that, the Reds are improving their pitching and their defense, no way, the Reds are making good decisions that helps the team win ballgames. If you haven't seen that offense alone doesn't get you anywhere then I'm afraid you'll never understand as the Reds the past few years are a prime example of this.

Arroyo doesn't like Cincinnati but give him until next year, I think things will drastically change. He'll soon realize this is a different regime that cares about winning and knows how to win baseball games, that is, not by overpowering offense and awful pitching and defense. Then with Arroyo as an example it shows other pitchers that Cincinnati is a place you want to be because they know how to run a ballclub. Then the Reds won't have to settle with an Eric Milton type and instead can get someone like Matt Clement.

dougdirt
03-26-2006, 01:36 AM
Dunn at first and someone like Denorfia in the OF it would improve the defense more than Dunn in LF and Hatteberg at first. In my opinion of course. I could be wrong, but Arroyo was a slightly below average pitcher last season by his ERA (0.11 higher than the league average). Dave Williams was 0.14 higher than the league average last year. I cant be sure, but the way everything coming from Narrons mouth is that when healthy, Paul Wilson is joining the rotation and that probably means Williams is out. Williams was nearly the same pitcher Arroyo was last year. Trading Pena for a guy just as good as Williams, who basically is the guy he pushes out of the rotation at the end of April wasnt a good trade in my estimation. Not at this point in time at least.
I dont want Pena back becuase he can hit balls 525 feet, I want him back becuase I think had we kept him and let him start everyday, his value would be more in 3 or 4 months than it was a week ago when we traded him and would mybe have netted a #3 starter. Maybe a prospect close to the majors. I mean Arroyo was going to be in the bullpen in Boston. Even if Pena didnt improve over his career norms, we still probably could have gotten Arroyo in July.

harangatang
03-26-2006, 01:46 AM
Dunn at 1B improves this team's defense? Have you read any reports about Dunn's defense this spring? It was hideous. I do agree that Denorfia improves the defense in the outfield but that's far as I can go with that. I would love to see Williams pitch at Fenway for half his starts then I think you would realize that Arroyo is superior. The comparison between the 2 is comparing apples and oranges.

dougdirt
03-26-2006, 01:50 AM
Hatteberg is pretty bad at first base also from what I have read. Really though all of this debate is pointless as it doesnt really matter a whole much past the point of I dont like the trade.

cincyinco
03-26-2006, 02:42 AM
I guess the question you all need to ask yourself is which is the real arroyo.

A) 2004 version of Arroyo
B) 2005 version of Arroyo
C) somewhere inbetween.

I happen to think it will lean more towards the 2004 version of Arroyo myself, probably not quite as good, but I think he's much better than his 2005 season.

Ravenlord
03-26-2006, 02:52 AM
2004 version of Arroyo
B) 2005 version of Arroyo
C) somewhere inbetween.

I happen to think it will lean more towards the 2004 version of Arroyo myself, probably not quite as good, but I think he's much better than his 2005 season.
i'm praying last year was similar to Matt Clement, in that Boston (admittedly) went a little to aggressive in telling their pitchers to not walk hitters.

Reds1
03-26-2006, 08:45 AM
Hatteberg is pretty bad at first base also from what I have read. Really though all of this debate is pointless as it doesnt really matter a whole much past the point of I dont like the trade.

I'm not sure where you get that Hattegerg is a bad 1b. Is it his age? I personally haven't seen him except for a couple innings yesterday. I can guarantee you he will play a better 1B then Wily Mo in LF. Denorfia plays better defense, but he hasn't proven that he can play every day in the bigs.
I guess we can debate this as we see what happens on the field, but as far as Arroyo no one can debate there is someone more deserving to pitch in one of the starting slots.

traderumor
03-26-2006, 09:06 AM
I love the internet

REDREAD
03-26-2006, 09:14 AM
This line from Krivsky says it all, "Signing Hatteberg was the key" to the deal.


Not a fair statement. Wayne obviously meant he had to get some depth at OF or 1b in order to deal Kearns or Pena. Wayne isn't saying that Hattenberg is a savior

There's a chance this trade could blow up in our faces, but it's not a sure thing. Pena is a risky commodity, who's value dropped over the past year. It's hard to say if Pena will be the next Eric Davis or Glenn Braggs. Sure, it was a good risk for the Red Sox, because they have like 7 starting pitchers.

But it's a good risk for the Reds as well. Even if Arroyo pitches league average for the next 3 years, it will help tremendously (vs trotting out Gosling, Geranamo, etc).

The Reds are a team in transition now. Wayne is doing what DanO should've been doing, making trades to improve the pitching long term. Arroyo is one step in that direction. Of course, it's not without risk, but every trade has some risk.

icehole3
03-26-2006, 09:17 AM
krivsky hasn't been on the job long. give the man time. i think he know's what he's doing. for all of the hype surrounding wily mo, the guy's horrible in the field, and strikes out WAY too much. it'll be interesting to see how he adjusts to the AL. it could possibly take years to see how this deal will play out, and who gets the best of it. i'm going to give it some time before judging

I agree, if we dont ever give a GM a chance we will never get anywhere. The guy made a trade for an average pitcher for a guy who was expendable. He got what he was able to get for Pena. There is enough power on the Reds to make up for losing Pena. This will not go down as the Frank Robinson trade 2 IMO.

REDREAD
03-26-2006, 09:20 AM
We traded Pena at a very low point, .

I agree. Pena (or Kearns) should've been dealt last spring. However, Pena is a high risk guy now. He's in arbitration years. He may not blossom until after he hits free agency (he'll be 27 when he hits FA then, I think).

Also, it's possible Pena might be worth LESS at the end of the year.

As far as the Reds go, I find it hard for them to lose, because it's highly likely Arroyo will outproduce a revolving door of Gosling/Germano/Reith types that are in our minor leagues now. That's the big problem for the Reds. Right now, I don't think they can reach into AAA and get a starting pitcher that could post an ERA below 7.00. It's that bad. I like Besile in the pen, but I really don't think he has what it takes to be a starter.

REDREAD
03-26-2006, 09:29 AM
I'm not sure where you get that Hattegerg is a bad 1b. Is it his age? I personally haven't seen him except for a couple innings yesterday. I can guarantee you he will play a better 1B then Wily Mo in LF. Denorfia plays better defense, but he hasn't proven that he can play every day in the bigs.
.

I agree with you on that. I haven't seen much of Denorfia, but he may not have the bat to play in the major leagues. I think we have to trust the Reds judgement on that call. I'm not particularly thrilled with Hattenberg starting either, but I can take comfort that he's just a stopgap.

Wayne came in and already had a bunch of decisions made for him this year (Womack, Williams, etc). I think he had the right plan. Sign a stopgap (Hattenberg) quickly so he could focus on trading either KEarns/Pena for long term pitching help.

westofyou
03-26-2006, 10:04 AM
Let's face it, Krivsky is starting to look like a more courageous version Dan O'.
Let's face it today's remote control generation has a problem letting events occur at a natural rate.

The new GM less than 8 weeks into the job looks to be anything but Dan O'Brien.

TeamBoone
03-26-2006, 01:19 PM
Dunn at 1B improves this team's defense? Have you read any reports about Dunn's defense this spring? It was hideous.

Really? Actually, I haven't read that anywhere.

In addition, I'm not even sure how they could accurately evaluate him at 1B as he's only played there what? 4 times?

harangatang
03-26-2006, 01:38 PM
Really? Actually, I haven't read that anywhere.

In addition, I'm not even sure how they could accurately evaluate him at 1B as he's only played there what? 4 times?

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44046

Reds manager Jerry Narron calls Edwin Encarnacion "the Grapefruit League MVP," but scouts are very concerned about the infeld defense, especially Dunn at first. "He just doesn't seem to take to the position," said one AL scout. "He's pretty rough over there."

Big Klu
03-26-2006, 01:52 PM
I'm not sure where you get that Hattegerg is a bad 1b. Is it his age? I personally haven't seen him except for a couple innings yesterday. I can guarantee you he will play a better 1B then Wily Mo in LF. Denorfia plays better defense, but he hasn't proven that he can play every day in the bigs.
I guess we can debate this as we see what happens on the field, but as far as Arroyo no one can debate there is someone more deserving to pitch in one of the starting slots.
I agree with you on that. I haven't seen much of Denorfia, but he may not have the bat to play in the major leagues. I think we have to trust the Reds judgement on that call. I'm not particularly thrilled with Hattenberg starting either, but I can take comfort that he's just a stopgap.

Wayne came in and already had a bunch of decisions made for him this year (Womack, Williams, etc). I think he had the right plan. Sign a stopgap (Hattenberg) quickly so he could focus on trading either KEarns/Pena for long term pitching help.

I also agree with Reds1 and REDSREAD about Chris Denorfia. I don't think there is any doubt that he can play defense at the Major League level, but I think that there is still some doubt as to whether he can hit. From what I have read (and maybe I'm wrong), last year was the the first season in the minors that Denorfia really impressed anyone with the bat. And I think he only played half a season at AAA. I'm optimistic that he can become a legitimate fourth outfielder at the big-league level, and I would have been happy if he had stayed with the big club, but let's give him some everyday at bats at the AAA level to see if last year was an aberration, or whether he has finally arrived.

In other words, lets find out if Chris Denorfia is another Brady Clark (or at least a Chris Jones), or whether he is another Mike Frank, Steve Gibralter, Chad Mottola, Pat Watkins, Mike Kelly, Raul Gonzalez, Cesar Hernandez, Keith Gordon, Van Snider, Rolando Roomes, Leo Garcia, et. al.

SteelSD
03-26-2006, 02:01 PM
I also agree with Reds1 and REDSREAD about Chris Denorfia. I don't think there is any doubt that he can play defense at the Major League level, but I think that there is still some doubt as to whether he can hit. From what I have read (and maybe I'm wrong), last year was the the first season in the minors that Denorfia really impressed anyone with the bat. And I think he only played half a season at AAA. I'm optimistic that he can become a legitimate fourth outfielder at the big-league level, and I would have been happy if he had stayed with the big club, but let's give him some everyday at bats at the AAA level to see if last year was an aberration, or whether he has finally arrived.

In other words, lets find out if Chris Denorfia is another Brady Clark (or at least a Chris Jones), or whether he is another Mike Frank, Steve Gibralter, Chad Mottola, Pat Watkins, Mike Kelly, Raul Gonzalez, Cesar Hernandez, Keith Gordon, Van Snider, Rolando Roomes, Leo Garcia, et. al.

Over 1,688 Minor League AB, Denorfia posted a line of .286 BA/.371 OBP/.432 SLG (.803 OPS). He's demonstrated excellent plate discipline skills every step of the way and his power numbers have consistently improved. He wasn't at all overmatched by MLB pitching in his brief stint in the Show last year.

He's going to be 26 in July. The only thing that happens if he's sitting in AAA is that he gets older while the Reds field less productive options at the MLB level.

Big Klu
03-26-2006, 02:10 PM
Over 1,688 Minor League AB, Denorfia posted a line of .286 BA/.371 OBP/.432 SLG (.803 OPS). He's demonstrated excellent plate discipline skills every step of the way and his power numbers have consistently improved. He wasn't at all overmatched by MLB pitching in his brief stint in the Show last year.

He's going to be 26 in July. The only thing that happens if he's sitting in AAA is that he gets older while the Reds field less productive options at the MLB level.

Which is why I would have been happy if he would have stuck with the big club. If you will check on some of the threads where folks gave their ideas and predictions on the 25-man roster, I always had Denorfia making the squad. In my opinion, it's time for him to sink or swim at the big-league level. But since management has decided otherwise, let's make the best of the situation. I still think he will pan out, and become a serviceable fourth OF. And I think he will be back up sooner, rather than later.

TeamBoone
03-26-2006, 03:46 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44046

Reds manager Jerry Narron calls Edwin Encarnacion "the Grapefruit League MVP," but scouts are very concerned about the infeld defense, especially Dunn at first. "He just doesn't seem to take to the position," said one AL scout. "He's pretty rough over there."

Yes, I read that... one article, probably based on one game. Like I said, he's only played 1B about four games this spring. He played there more than that last season and didn't look too bad. Did he need improvement, yep. And had they played him there this spring, he would have.

Big Klu
03-26-2006, 04:10 PM
However, it also sounds like he really didn't want to play there. So now that the OF situation is thinned out, why not move him back to LF?

Interesting that you and I have almost done a complete 180 on this issue. Unless I am mistaken, last year you were a big proponent of the "Leave Dunn in LF because he is unhappy at 1B" idea--while I was a supporter of the "Move Dunn to 1B ASAP to make room for WMP and Kearns in the OF" idea. Now that WMP is gone, I no longer see the urgency in moving a still-young Adam Dunn out of LF, while you seem more interested in getting him to 1B.

I still think that his defense at 1B is not nearly as bad as people are claiming--I think that he is no worse than average defensively at 1B. I also think that his defense in LF improved over the second half of last year, and will continue to improve under the tutilege of Billy Hatcher. I also think that it is inevitable (and I think Dunn knows this, too) that he will eventually have to make the move to 1B at some point in his career--all VLOF's (Very Large Outfielders) do so. He just wants to delay the pilgrimage until his 30's, if possible.

TC81190
03-26-2006, 04:13 PM
However, it also sounds like he really didn't want to play there. So now that the OF situation is thinned out, why not move him back to LF?

Interesting that you and I have almost done a complete 180 on this issue. Unless I am mistaken, last year you were a big proponent of the "Leave Dunn in LF because he is unhappy at 1B" idea--while I was a supporter of the "Move Dunn to 1B ASAP to make room for WMP and Kearns in the OF" idea. Now that WMP is gone, I no longer see the urgency in moving a still-young Adam Dunn out of LF, while you seem more interested in getting him to 1B.

I still think that his defense at 1B is not nearly as bad as people are claiming--I think that he is no worse than average defensively at 1B. I also think that his defense in LF improved over the second half of last year, and will continue to improve under the tutilege of Billy Hatcher. I also think that it is inevitable (and I think Dunn knows this, too) that he will eventually have to make the move to 1B at some point in his career--all VLOF's (Very Large Outfielders) do so. He just wants to delay the pilgrimage until his 30's, if possible.

Yeah, his legs won't allow him to roam the OF for a career length. And the OF situation hasn't really thinned out, we still have yet another starter-caliber OFer, and I prefer Denorfia over Hatteberg.

Big Klu
03-26-2006, 04:19 PM
I'm not convinced that Denorfia is starter-caliber (yet), though I do think that he is a legit 4th OF.

Reds1
03-26-2006, 05:16 PM
He's going to be 26 in July. The only thing that happens if he's sitting in AAA is that he gets older while the Reds field less productive options at the MLB level.

He's only 25. That's not old. I personally don't think he's ready to be with the big team, but it's not my call. Just because he starts in AAA doesn't mean he has to finish. It's his job to tear it up in AAA. It's not like he's tearing the cover off the ball in spring training.

harangatang
03-26-2006, 05:28 PM
Yes, I read that... one article, probably based on one game. Like I said, he's only played 1B about four games this spring. He played there more than that last season and didn't look too bad. Did he need improvement, yep. And had they played him there this spring, he would have.

Here's what you posted earlier, do you even know what you're saying?
Really? Actually, I haven't read that anywhere..

I think this comes down to the overall defense becoming better. I don't think there can be a rational argument about this team being worse off defensively with Dunn in LF and Hatteberg at 1B. Is it possible Dunn could have been better with more work at 1B, yes but we don't know. I actually have a little faith in this organization again and I actually trust they know more information than you do to make decisions that help the ballclub. I don't know why they haven't played Dunn at 1B but let's take this example that developed earlier in the day. The whole situation with Ross and the possibility of LaRue being traded and it turns out LaRue has had a nagging injury. No one knew why for sure but all of sudden we know. We may never know why the Reds didn't play Dunn at 1B but I think they have a darn good reason. Here's the link directly to the LaRue article so you don't look like a fool again.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=913964&postcount=68

SteelSD
03-26-2006, 05:35 PM
He's only 25. That's not old.

He'll be 26 in July and is moving into his age-prime years. Teams need to give MLB reps to talented 25 year-olds in order to best prepare them for when their ability best manifests itself.


I personally don't think he's ready to be with the big team, but it's not my call. Just because he starts in AAA doesn't mean he has to finish. It's his job to tear it up in AAA.

He's already torn the cover off the ball in AAA. He's got nothing more to prove there and keeping him stuck there does nothing to help a club that'll soon be wasting Plate Appearances on far less productive players.


It's not like he's tearing the cover off the ball in spring training.

Jeez. Even if Spring Training stats weren't completely meaningless, Denorfia has done nothing in Spring Training but play solid baseball. Building a MLB roster by picking and choosing who has the best Spring Training stats is an exercise in futility.

TeamBoone
03-26-2006, 11:45 PM
Interesting that you and I have almost done a complete 180 on this issue. Unless I am mistaken, last year you were a big proponent of the "Leave Dunn in LF because he is unhappy at 1B" idea--while I was a supporter of the "Move Dunn to 1B ASAP to make room for WMP and Kearns in the OF" idea. Now that WMP is gone, I no longer see the urgency in moving a still-young Adam Dunn out of LF, while you seem more interested in getting him to 1B.

True, I don't think a player necessarily performs at their best if they're thrown into an EVERY DAY position that they don't care for... Adam seemed ok with it when he was approached about playing every day. Plus, he gave up the WBC to really learn it, so it appeared he and the team were serious about him playing there.

I'm in no way a proponent of moving him to first base... or to the OF. In actuality, it really doesn't matter to me which position he plays though I'm sure he's more comfortable in the OF.

The point I was trying to make (poorly presented) is that it riles me a bit to hear/read of people dogging him on how badly he plays the position when they have nothing but a very small sample size on which to base that opinion. That's all.

TeamBoone
03-26-2006, 11:47 PM
Here's what you posted earlier, do you even know what you're saying?

I apologize; I forgot about the one article.

PS - I responded before reading your entire response. I'm not so sure I apologize now. I never claimed to know it all. I've seen much more severe criticism on this board without a person jumping all over the poster about what was said.

I think you over reacted.

Bill
03-27-2006, 01:47 AM
Just read this in a Cleveland plain Dealer story- I guess our new gm threw out the hotline phone to Cleveland:

The Indians had little contact with the Reds last week before Cincinnati sent outfielder Wily Mo Pena to Boston for starter Bronson Arroyo. If Washington puts disgruntled outfielder Alfonso Soriano on the open market, the Indians would take a look.

WMR
03-27-2006, 02:36 AM
Did he even explore other options b/f settling for Arroyo???

harangatang
03-27-2006, 02:45 AM
I apologize; I forgot about the one article.

PS - I responded before reading your entire response. I'm not so sure I apologize now. I never claimed to know it all. I've seen much more severe criticism on this board without a person jumping all over the poster about what was said.

I think you over reacted.

What? Apologize for what to me, I'm debating you on Dunn/Hatteberg/Pena, if you take things personal, I can't help it. I care about the Reds, not belittling you. Here's you, "Really? Actually, I haven't read that anywhere.", so what do I do, I go back and look it up to show you where I read it at. So you know where I read it, plain and simple. It's weird that one second you have no idea what I'm talking about and the next second you say you've already previously read the article. Then not to mention you try to second guess the content of it. Something you have been very critical of me for in the past, but it's OK, I don't take it personal and you shouldn't either, but unforunately you do. Would you like me to dig that up for you too, no actually I'm going to let you remember that on your own. An overreaction, on your part, I do say. I'm here to talk about the Reds and your more concerned about picking a fight.

Jpup
03-27-2006, 04:34 AM
What? Apologize for what to me, I'm debating you on Dunn/Hatteberg/Pena, if you take things personal, I can't help it. I care about the Reds, not belittling you. Here's you, "Really? Actually, I haven't read that anywhere.", so what do I do, I go back and look it up to show you where I read it at. So you know where I read it, plain and simple. It's weird that one second you have no idea what I'm talking about and the next second you say you've already previously read the article. Then not to mention you try to second guess the content of it. Something you have been very critical of me for in the past, but it's OK, I don't take it personal and you shouldn't either, but unforunately you do. Would you like me to dig that up for you too, no actually I'm going to let you remember that on your own. An overreaction, on your part, I do say. I'm here to talk about the Reds and your more concerned about picking a fight.

relax, i think you are getting a little too excited for nothing. TB is not here to pick fights. I think you are just misunderstanding.

REDREAD
03-27-2006, 08:24 AM
Over 1,688 Minor League AB, Denorfia posted a line of .286 BA/.371 OBP/.432 SLG (.803 OPS). .

That's true, but Brandon Larson, Alan Knicely, and other guys also posted some gaudy minor league numbers as well. For now, I'm trusting Wayne's judgement. He's cut quite a few guys loose (including Josh "The Savior" Hancock :laugh: ), if any of these come back to bite us, then I'll reconsider.

Rotater Cuff
03-27-2006, 08:33 AM
[QUOTE=
I hope the fans remember this trade fondly around the All-Star break when the Reds are fighting the Pirates for last in the NL Central, Ryan Freel is starting at two of the outfield spots (when was the last time Griffey, Dunn, and Kearns didn't go down with a season-ending injury at some point in the year?)

Adam Dunn has never gone down with a season-ending injury. As far as his other points, no one knows, although trashing the pitching and some of the players is easy, Krivsky deserves a shot. If this trade turns out as bad as the Reitsma trade, or the Milton signing, then we should by all means pile on.

Until then, give the guy a little bit of a honeymoon

KearnsyEars
03-27-2006, 08:56 AM
I'm sorry but I feel that we've got the firepower to outscore anyone in BASEBALL with our lineup if we stay healthy. We aren't going to be that bad. I think that if our guys throw strikes and "pitch to contact" (dangit!) we can have a .500 team. That is why I love baseball. It is a crapshoot. I can see us getting off to a hot start and I have optimism about this team's possibilities opening up the season. We will not be the worst team in the NL. NO WAY NO HOW.

Johnny Footstool
03-27-2006, 10:17 AM
I don't think there can be a rational argument about this team being worse off defensively with Dunn in LF and Hatteberg at 1B.

Dunn is a slightly below-average outfielder and a below-average first baseman. Despite what Narron thinks, Hatteberg is a below-average first baseman on par with Dunn. No defensive gains there.

Freel or Denorfia are at least average outfielders, and possibly above average. In order to see a gain on defense, the Reds would have to start one of them in LF and either Hatteberg or Dunn at 1B. Dunn's offense more than makes up for his lack of defense, so logically the best lineup would include Freel or Denorfia in LF and Dunn at 1B.

westofyou
03-27-2006, 10:29 AM
Despite what Narron thinks, Hatteberg is a below-average first baseman on par with Dunn. No defensive gains there.

Oddly enough the discussion of 1st base is being played out on XM Home Plate right now (someone just called to say that WMP should play 1st for the RS)

I think that if *anything* the experience that Hattenberg now as as a 1st baseman gives him a distinct edge on the defense side of the coin.

I know quantifying it is hard, but if the game is 75% mental then at times that plays into game time situations, where experience does trump the agility of a player (with little game time experience) Granted, with the high slg% and BB driven stat line of todays game, plus the lack of carpet the need for elite first baseman's fielding prowness has dropped considerably from the 70's and 80's.

But somewhere in the fog something about defense at first still has to factor in to the final tally.

Even if playing it is "Pudding"

macro
03-27-2006, 11:12 AM
What? Apologize for what to me, I'm debating you on Dunn/Hatteberg/Pena, if you take things personal, I can't help it. I care about the Reds, not belittling you. Here's you, "Really? Actually, I haven't read that anywhere.", so what do I do, I go back and look it up to show you where I read it at. So you know where I read it, plain and simple. It's weird that one second you have no idea what I'm talking about and the next second you say you've already previously read the article. Then not to mention you try to second guess the content of it. Something you have been very critical of me for in the past, but it's OK, I don't take it personal and you shouldn't either, but unforunately you do. Would you like me to dig that up for you too, no actually I'm going to let you remember that on your own. An overreaction, on your part, I do say. I'm here to talk about the Reds and your more concerned about picking a fight.

I'm not aware of what has happened or has been said in the past, so please don't think I'm taking sides, but this type of communication is better suited for a Private Message, not on the board for all to read. Again, I'm only addressing this thread and have no knowledge of what may or may not have led up to it.

NastyBoy
03-27-2006, 12:06 PM
This guy is an idiot. Apparently, he has never seen WMP play defense and is totally unaware that Rich Aurillia has been playing at 1B.

harangatang
03-27-2006, 12:16 PM
I'm not aware of what has happened or has been said in the past, so please don't think I'm taking sides, but this type of communication is better suited for a Private Message, not on the board for all to read. Again, I'm only addressing this thread and have no knowledge of what may or may not have led up to it.

Look I think maybe everyone needs to read this, if TeamBoone thinks I am attacking him personally then he needs to quit whining and take your advice. All I'm saying here is that I'm here to talk and debate about the Reds and he gets mad because he takes something personal when I am talking about the Reds. I didn't start anything.

Here's what happened:
1. I say that the scouting reports on Dunn shows he was hideous at 1B, this spring.
2. TeamBoone says he hasn't seen that anywhere
3. So I go back and post a link to the article
4. TeamBoone says he has already previously seen the article
5. I pointed out #2 and #4 because in one minute he has no idea what I'm talking about and the next minute he said he has already previously read it/
6. TeamBoone takes offense and publicly cries on the board, that's not me that started this
7. I reply on the board to TeamBoone because I meant absolutely no harm personally towards him.
8. Macro tells me THAT MY POST is better meant for a private message when I'm replying to the problem post. If you use that logic, if someone takes offense to this post, then a reply to this message is the problem and not the message itself. Absolute absurdity.

SteelSD
03-27-2006, 12:31 PM
That's true, but Brandon Larson, Alan Knicely, and other guys also posted some gaudy minor league numbers as well. For now, I'm trusting Wayne's judgement. He's cut quite a few guys loose (including Josh "The Savior" Hancock :laugh: ), if any of these come back to bite us, then I'll reconsider.

BB Rate:

Brandon Larson: 1BB per every 13.84 AB
Chris Denorfia: 1BB per every 7.57 AB

Denorfia's game projects better than Larson's at the MLB level. Way better.

Oh, and you're trusting a guy (Krivsky) while it appears that he'll allow his manager to run out the worst right side of an infield (Hatteberg + Womack) in recent MLB history. That's even worse than a Mientkiewicz/Matsui combo that reared it's ugly head at Shea last season.

In Win Shares Above Bench level last season, Hatteberg and Womack combined for a negative 4 WSAB.

I'll start trusting Krivsky when he demonstrates he's smart enough to understand that's not acceptable.

pedro
03-27-2006, 12:42 PM
Please take it private.

oh, and TB is a woman.

REDREAD
03-27-2006, 07:43 PM
Oh, and you're trusting a guy (Krivsky) while it appears that he'll allow his manager to run out the worst right side of an infield (Hatteberg + Womack) in recent MLB history. That's even worse than a Mientkiewicz/Matsui combo that reared it's ugly head at Shea last season.

In Win Shares Above Bench level last season, Hatteberg and Womack combined for a negative 4 WSAB.

I'll start trusting Krivsky when he demonstrates he's smart enough to understand that's not acceptable.

I agree that Defornia should be better than Larson. The point was that sometimes minor league numbers don't guarantee sucess. Machado had a nice walk rate in the minors, but he was clearly overmatched at the big league level. IMO, you need a combination of stats and knowledgable coaches evaluating the guy by sight.

What was Wayne supposed to do with Womack? Release him? Why do that when Womack is fine for a 25th man on the roster. It's Narron's fault if Womack starts every day.

As far as Hattenberg, the Reds had no depth. They had to grab someone quick in order to trade for pitching. Maybe the Reds will end up screwed on the Arroyo deal, but Wayne had to move before the season started. It's a huge risk to hold on to Pena another year and watch him lose more value. IMO, his method was sound, although maybe he picked the wrong pitcher.

I'm not too worried about a few holes in the position players this year if it builds for the future. This year is a lost cause anyhow. Wayne's #1 goal this year should be to improve the farm and improve the pitching. Maybe he's on his way, maybe the Pena deal blows up in his face, but at least he seems to be making good risks (IMO).

SteelSD
03-27-2006, 07:52 PM
I agree that Defornia should be better than Larson. The point was that sometimes minor league numbers don't guarantee sucess. Machado had a nice walk rate in the minors, but he was clearly overmatched at the big league level. IMO, you need a combination of stats and knowledgable coaches evaluating the guy by sight.

Machado doesn't profile the way Denorfia does either.


What was Wayne supposed to do with Womack? Release him? Why do that when Womack is fine for a 25th man on the roster. It's Narron's fault if Womack starts every day.

Yes. Yes, release Womack. Please. Do it multiple times per day. Guy was one of the two worst position players in MLB in 2005. That doesn't deserve a roster spot anywhere in the Show at any time. And if Womack starts every day, it's Krivsky's fault. Krivsky is Narron's boss and don't think that GM's don't have control or shouldn't have control over the lineup. They do and should.


As far as Hattenberg, the Reds had no depth. They had to grab someone quick in order to trade for pitching. Maybe the Reds will end up screwed on the Arroyo deal, but Wayne had to move before the season started. It's a huge risk to hold on to Pena another year and watch him lose more value. IMO, his method was sound, although maybe he picked the wrong pitcher.

Smart GM's can find stopgap options that don't include the worst players at a particular position. They just passed one up on the Waiver wire (Choi) and another (Pena) is just sitting out there.


I'm not too worried about a few holes in the position players this year if it builds for the future. This year is a lost cause anyhow. Wayne's #1 goal this year should be to improve the farm and improve the pitching. Maybe he's on his way, maybe the Pena deal blows up in his face, but at least he seems to be making good risks (IMO).

Allowing horrid older players to take valuable playing time from younger more projectible options (example: Hatteberg vs. Denorfia) isn't "building for the future". It's unrelated to the future. It's about the present.