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View Full Version : Narron describes what the 2006 lineup could look like



OnBaseMachine
03-25-2006, 09:52 PM
Flexible lineup? The Reds fielded what appeared to be close to their Opening Day lineup against Minnesota. It looked like this -- second baseman Tony Womack, shortstop Felipe Lopez, center fielder Ken Griffey Jr., third baseman Edwin Encarnacion, left fielder Adam Dunn, first baseman Rich Aurilia, right fielder Austin Kearns and LaRue.
One exception -- Scott Hatteberg is expected to get the bulk of time at first base over Aurilia. However, Narron felt the order could be adjusted several times throughout the season.

"Right now, Griffey is going to hit third. Other than that, I can't say where guys are going to hit," Narron said. "Lopez might hit one, two or probably fifth, sixth or seventh. Mostly one or two. Womack and [Ryan] Freel are going to hit one, two or eighth. Dunn is going to hit three, four or five. Kearns is going to hit anywhere from two to eight. LaRue probably two, seven and eight.

"You want me to keep going? If Javy [Valentin] is in there, there's no telling where he'll hit."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060325&content_id=1362529&vkey=spt2006news&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

OnBaseMachine
03-25-2006, 10:02 PM
Narron will single-handedly make this offense worse with his lineups. Tony Womack first? Adam Dunn fifth? Aurilia or Hatteberg protecting Dunn? Kearns seventh?

Dunn should bat either second, third, or fourth in the lineup - and Rich Aurilia or Scott Hatteberg should absolutely not bad directly behind Dunn. He would be pitched around every time. I prefer Adam batting third with Griffey behind him. Encarnacion should bat second, fifth or sixth.

If the Reds fail to make a trade or sign a better 1B like a Shealy or Carlos Pena, and Hatteberg/Aurilia are the first basemen, then they should bat eighth.

My ideal lineup with a trade:

2B Ryan Freel
SS Felipe Lopez
LF Adam Dunn
CF Ken Griffey Jr.
3B Edwin Encarnacion
RF Austin Kearns
1B Ryan Shealy
C Jason LaRue/Javier Valentin

Without a trade:

2B Freel
SS Lopez
LF Dunn
CF Griffey Jr.
3B Encarnacion
RF Kearns
C LaRue/Valentin
1B Hatteberg/Aurilia

mole44
03-25-2006, 10:06 PM
Flexible lineup? The Reds fielded what appeared to be close to their Opening Day lineup against Minnesota. It looked like this -- second baseman Tony Womack

:bang:

Newman4
03-25-2006, 10:31 PM
Narron sounds like the first country bumpkin to fall of the haystack when they interview him. I have these flashbacks from the other day of him calling Adam Dunn "Dunner" with what it sounded like was a big wad of Mail Pouch in his jaw.

Chip R
03-25-2006, 10:37 PM
Even without injuries, I think Narron is going to use a whole lot of lineups. He is going to mix and match so much he will make Bob Boone look like Sparky Anderson. Especially when Aurilia starts complaining about not getting enough starts. He has a lot of guys who can play more than one position. That is not necessarily a bad thing but when you have too many, you kinda have to prove to people that these guys are versatile. You will see guys like Dunn and Jr. coming out of the game in the late innings for defensive purposes. Maybe not Jr. so much but I would wager we see it with Dunn quite a bit. Also, he seems to favor alternating righties and lefties in the lineup. So we will probably see Dunn bat 5th most of the time if Jr. is playing.

PTBNL
03-25-2006, 10:40 PM
ARGH! Flexible lineup?!
That sounds like the famously fallen flat '03 Red Sox Bullpen-by-committee. :eek:

KronoRed
03-25-2006, 10:44 PM
Dunn batting 5th and leading off a ton of innings.

Jr batting 3rd because he's "JR"

Lopez buried because "we need to have power in front of the pitcher"

Womack/Aurilia/Batman/Hatteberg batting 1 or 2 because "contact high in the order is WOOO"

Freel getting few at bats at all cause he's too valuable.

The Reds are gonna suck no matter what the lineup but it's a major bummer to see junk lineups at the start of the game, a starting 9 of the best players 100 out of 162 games would be a nice thing to see, but alas..we have old school.

flyer85
03-25-2006, 10:47 PM
nothing surprising. The only thing that will save the Reds from a healthy dose of Womack and Hatteberg is if Krivsky removes them.

KronoRed
03-25-2006, 10:48 PM
nothing surprising. The only thing that will save the Reds from a healthy dose of Womack and Hatteberg is if Krivsky removes them.
I doubt that would even do much, Narron would probably start whatever retreads replace them.

reds44
03-25-2006, 10:59 PM
Lopez better not be hitting 6th or 7th.
Hitting 4th and having Dunn behind him will do wonders for EE's development.
Bat Kearns behind Dunn.
Griffey should bat 3rd.
Womack will be the OD 2nd baseman, but I get the feeling he will end up like Jimenez last year.

Lopez
EE
Griffey
Dunn
Kearns
Hatteberg
Larue
Womack

(LaRue would bat 6th, but I split up the lefties.)

If those are the 8 starters, then thats my lineup.

flyer85
03-25-2006, 11:02 PM
The only thing about the batting order is Womack should never bat anywhere but 8th. Outside of that is just isn't that big of a deal although I would always bat Dunn 4th.

IowaRed
03-26-2006, 12:06 AM
Freel getting few at bats at all cause he's too valuable.

The Reds are gonna suck no matter what the lineup but it's a major bummer to see junk lineups at the start of the game, a starting 9 of the best players 100 out of 162 games would be a nice thing to see, but alas..we have old school.

That about sums it up :(

wolfboy
03-26-2006, 12:41 AM
It just wrenches my gut with this guy as the manager. Unfortunately, I think we're in for a lot more illogical thinking from "baseball guy". The thing that makes me so upset is that talented guys are going to suffer because of Narron's foolish moves. If Encarnacion stumbles in the least, we're likely to see a lot more of Aurilia. Freel is not going to get a starting job when he should. We've already seen Denorfia sent down in favor of guys like Sanchez and McCracken. It's just sad to see that these talented guys are going to lose opportunities because of Narron's foolish obsession with veteran wash outs. I like to see young talent blossom instead of suffer. I really wish Narron felt the same way.

Ravenlord
03-26-2006, 01:32 AM
i misss (of all people) Ray Knight....

BCubb2003
03-26-2006, 02:05 AM
"Lopez might hit one, two or probably fifth, sixth or seventh. Mostly one or two."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060325&content_id=1362529&vkey=spt2006news&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Can anyone explain what variations in the universe would cause any given day to be the one when Lopez must hit fifth, and another day the one when he must hit sixth?

Then explan why he said "probably fifth, sixth or seventh" and "Mostly one or two"?

RedsBaron
03-26-2006, 08:32 AM
Bob Boone, Dave Miley, Narron....where do the Reds keep finding these people to hire as managers?:bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

Raisor
03-26-2006, 08:40 AM
Can anyone explain what variations in the universe would cause any given day to be the one when Lopez must hit fifth, and another day the one when he must hit sixth?

Then explan why he said "probably fifth, sixth or seventh" and "Mostly one or two"?


In my own mock lineups, I've been hitting Lopez 5th. Mostly because I love the idea of hitting EddieE second.

1. Freel 2B
2. EddieE 3B
3. Dunn 1B
4. Junior LF
5. Lopez SS
6. Kearns RF
7. LaRue C
8. Denoforia CF

Eddie in the two slot all year will a)maximize his PA's. b) give him Dunn behind him. c) it's something Lou would do.

wheels
03-26-2006, 08:46 AM
In my own mock lineups, I've been hitting Lopez 5th. Mostly because I love the idea of hitting EddieE second.

1. Freel 2B
2. EddieE 3B
3. Dunn 1B
4. Junior LF
5. Lopez SS
6. Kearns RF
7. LaRue C
8. Denoforia CF

Eddie in the two slot all year will a)maximize his PA's. b) give him Dunn behind him. c) it's something Lou would do.


That's the exact same lineup I came up with before I fell asleep last night.

I'm sure my girlfriend would be happy to know that.

OnBaseMachine
03-26-2006, 09:46 AM
Roster offers choice of lineups
But Griffey will bat in third spot

SARASOTA - The Reds used 127 lineups last year - 11th-most in the majors. When you hear Jerry Narron discuss the possibilities this year, 127 sounds like a reachable number.

Basically, the only thing written in cement - Narron's favorite expression when talking about lineup or rotation decisions - is that Ken Griffey Jr. will bat in the No. 3 hole.

With everyone else, there are variables. For you math majors out there, you know there are infinite possibilities when you have seven players to move among seven spots. (OK, maybe not quite infinite.)

The lineup Narron used Saturday against the Minnesota Twins is close to what you'll see on Opening Day:

1. Tony Womack 2B

2. Felipe Lopez SS

3. Griffey CF

4. Edwin Encarnacion 3B

5. Adam Dunn LF

6. Rich Aurilia 1B

7. Austin Kearns RF

8. Jason LaRue C

Left-handed hitter Scott Hatte- berg probably will start on Opening Day at first base because the Chicago Cubs will start right-hander Carlos Zambrano.

Narron shared some rules he'll follow when making the lineup:

Womack and Ryan Freel will hit first or second most often, but they'll occasionally be in the eighth spot.

Aurilia will hit in front of Griffey quite often. "He's best when he's in front of guys who are chasing dead men (on the home run record list)," Narron said. "He did well in front of (Barry) Bonds and Griffey."

Lopez will hit first, second, fourth or fifth. You'll see him lead off and Aurilia hit second when Womack and Freel aren't in the lineup.

Encarnacion will hit higher in the lineup than he did last year. "We're trying to do what we can to keep him out of the eighth hole." Narron said. "That's a tough spot for young hitters. We've been keeping him in the middle of the lineup. It's been pretty successful so far."

Encarnacion is in the race to win the spring training triple crown.

Dunn will hit third, fourth and fifth.

Kearns' spot is unsettled. "He's hit second to eighth," Narron said.

Lots of possibilities, right?

"It's set, but it's not," Narron said.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060326/COL09/603260374/1071/SPT04

wheels
03-26-2006, 01:00 PM
Jerry Narron is something of a boob when it comes to lineups.

At least he knows that Dunn needs to be in the middle of the order, not seventh.

Jr's Boy
03-26-2006, 01:08 PM
Narron sounds like the first country bumpkin to fall of the haystack when they interview him. I have these flashbacks from the other day of him calling Adam Dunn "Dunner" with what it sounded like was a big wad of Mail Pouch in his jaw.



Have there ever been any other managers that have chewed tobacco in MLB?Get real.

KronoRed
03-26-2006, 03:08 PM
At least he knows that Dunn needs to be in the middle of the order, not seventh.
But he'll break that when he needs to "break up the lefties"

I expect Dunn to again get a ton of at bats with nobody on.

flyer85
03-26-2006, 03:11 PM
But he'll break that when he needs to "break up the lefties"

I expect Dunn to again get a ton of at bats with nobody on.what bothers me even more is it likely because guys batting in front of him are lacking the skill to get on base.

Newport Red
03-26-2006, 03:24 PM
But he'll break that when he needs to "break up the lefties"

I expect Dunn to again get a ton of at bats with nobody on.

If Womack leads off, there will be alot of players getting at bats with nobody on.

While I'm reflexively against Lopez hitting 5th in the lineup, I like Raisor's lineup.

Chip R
03-26-2006, 03:29 PM
While I'm reflexively against Lopez hitting 5th in the lineup but I like Raisor's lineup.

Don't encourage him. ;)

Newport Red
03-26-2006, 03:32 PM
Don't encourage him. ;)

Hey, do you have a theorem?:)

Raisor
03-26-2006, 03:32 PM
Don't encourage him. ;)


Don't worry, I'm married. I need all the encouragement I can get.

:D

flyer85
03-26-2006, 03:37 PM
Don't worry, I'm married. I need all the encouragement I can get.... surely you meant your wife.

Caveat Emperor
03-26-2006, 04:26 PM
If Womack leads off, there will be alot of players getting at bats with noboby on.

While I'm reflexively against Lopez hitting 5th in the lineup but I like Raisor's lineup.

To be completely truthful, I'm not that worried about Womack batting leadoff. I'm sure it'll be an issue for the first couple weeks of the season, but I fully expect him to play himself out of the lineup with poor defense and poor offensive production.

An intelligent manager could discern this by the career numbers and watching Womack play last year. Jerry Narron will require reality to club him over the head several dozen times before things change. Either way, Tony Womack is a temporary annoyance, IMO.

flyer85
03-26-2006, 04:29 PM
To be completely truthful, I'm not that worried about Womack batting leadoff. I'm sure it'll be an issue for the first couple weeks of the season, but I fully expect him to play himself out of the lineup with poor defense and poor offensive production.

An intelligent manager could discern this by the career numbers and watching Womack play last year. Jerry Narron will require reality to club him over the head several dozen times before things change. Either way, Tony Womack is a temporary annoyance, IMO.However, if he is the "fattest albatross in the game" as BP described him, then it should be apparent that he is not an a starter

TC81190
03-26-2006, 04:30 PM
where do the Reds keep finding these people to hire as managers?:bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:


http://yorkville.mlogs.com/yorkville%5CImages%5C09152004175329.jpg

Strikes Out Looking
03-26-2006, 04:47 PM
I expect many lineups this year not only because of Narron or the players on the roster on opening day, but also due to the fact that Krivsky will probably be wheeling and dealing much more than DanO did.

Not because Krivsky is rebuilding per se, but what he probably believes to be more of a remodeling.

KronoRed
03-26-2006, 04:48 PM
I have no doubt Narron will stick with the vets even if they stink because they are vets, EE better get off to a huge start or he's bench bound.

dsmith421
03-26-2006, 06:17 PM
The only thing about the batting order is Womack should never bat.

Fixed it for you.

dsmith421
03-26-2006, 06:18 PM
The funniest thing about this is that the Reds already stink. Then they hire an absolute moron like Narron to make them worse. Aren't bad players enough of a handicap?

westofyou
03-26-2006, 06:24 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/19/sports/basketball/19score.html

Are the Mets Out of Order? It Doesn't Matter

By ALAN SCHWARZ
Published: March 19, 2006


For a player so seemingly perfect, David Wright is causing his manager some real headaches.

Wright, the Mets' 23-year-old third baseman, has done it all in his first season and a half in the majors, hitting for average (.302) and power (41 home runs), with speed (23 stolen bases) consistency and the plate discipline of a veteran.

Wright's versatility and aptitude suggest that he could hit anywhere in the batting order, his varied skills meeting every prerequisite.

The mounting debate among the news media and the fans has left Mets Manager Willie Randolph, who will make the decision, understandably chafed by rampant suggestions and theories from those who will not. Perhaps he will find some comfort in what the statistics folks have to say: It does not matter.

Randolph, a lifelong baseball man, retains a traditional image of what the top of his lineup should look like: A leadoff speedster (in this case, José Reyes), then a patient bat-control man (perhaps the new catcher Paul Lo Duca), then a veteran all-around hitter (Carlos Beltran), then the top slugger (the newly acquired Carlos Delgado).

This would push Wright — whom Randolph kept in the 7 and 6 holes most of last year to protect him from undue pressure — to No. 5 in the order, despite his growing reputation as the Mets' most potent offensive threat.

Randolph claims to be considering all his options, including having Wright hit as high as second.

"David saw more pitches than anybody on our team last year," Randolph said. (Wright's 3.98 pitches each plate appearance were the Mets' most.)

But for all the debate about where players should bat, deeper statistical methods have revealed that the order barely makes a difference — and the difference can be quite counterintuitive.

Mark Pankin, a financial adviser based in Lincoln, Va., has developed one of the most advanced computer models of lineup behavior, a method that simulates all the interactions among hitters and their tendencies to hit doubles, draw walks and more.

Using last year's statistics, Pankin turned it loose on the Mets and a half-dozen plausible batting orders.

Whether Lo Duca, Wright or Beltran batted anywhere from second to sixth, each order scored at rates of 4.82, 4.83 or 4.84 runs a game — which over a 162-game season would be a difference of merely three total runs.

"No matter how you look at it, switching hitters around only makes a difference in the second decimal place," Pankin said. "It basically doesn't matter."

This same conclusion has been reached by Bill James and dozens of other lineup empiricists.

And one irritated manager. In 1972, the Tigers' Billy Martin pulled names out of a hat to order his lineup against Cleveland, and wound up with the plodding slugger Norm Cash batting leadoff and the anemic shortstop Eddie Brinkman at cleanup. Deliciously, Brinkman wound up in the middle of the afternoon's key rally, doubling home the tying run and scoring the game-winner in the Tigers' 3-2 victory.

Many have posited over the years that putting batters in reverse order of overall skill — something the renegade manager Bobby Bragan tried a few times in the 1950's and 60's, including having the slugger Eddie Mathews bat leadoff — would produce the most runs, by virtue of those hitters getting more plate appearances over the course of a season. But Pankin's model demonstrated that it was not quite so simple.

Strangely enough, Pankin found that the most efficient lineup (assuming Reyes led off, an inevitability) featured Lo Duca second, then Delgado, Wright, Cliff Floyd and then Beltran; the worst had Wright batting second and Beltran third. (Even allowing Beltran to improve from last year's disappointing New York debut did not change matters much.) The reason, it appears, comes in how managers gear their lineups toward first-inning potency, at the expense of later innings.

A Reyes-Wright-Delgado start did enjoy the best first inning — but carried with it a 59.3 chance that the Nos. 4 or 5 hitters (Floyd and Beltran) led off the second inning, costing that frame more than the first inning had benefited. With Reyes-Lo Duca-Delgado-Wright-Floyd-Beltran, the best hitters (Delgado and Wright) usually came up with either runners on base in the first or led off the next.

"You weaken the first inning a bit, but you strengthen the second," Pankin said.

It appears as if Pankin is on to something. According to Stats LLC, over the past five seasons, more runs were scored in the first (1.16) than second (0.97) innings. But the average of those two (1.06) was still lower than any inning until the seventh — when relievers start taking over — suggesting that managers are indeed overplaying their first-inning hands.

So perhaps Wright's supporters should not worry so much about where he hits — as long as he hits.

"I really don't care," Wright said. "I'm still going to go up there with the same approach hitting second that I'd be hitting seventh or fourth."

In the end, when it comes to lineups, it's mind over doesn't matter.

KronoRed
03-26-2006, 06:49 PM
Obviously "baseball men" should be banned.

top6
03-26-2006, 08:24 PM
Most of the arguments for the order of the lineup are debatable; putting Tony Womack in a position where he will have more plate appearances than anyone else on the team is not.

Honestly, Krivisky has totally lost me as GM if he allows Tony Womack to start, let alone lead off. The terribleness of this decision cannot be overstated.

savafan
03-26-2006, 08:54 PM
Aurilia hitting in front of Griffey may not be too bad. For all of the grief I gave him last year, after he came back from the injury, he was one of the Reds best hitters.


Has anyone asked Bucky Dent what his lineups will look like?

Jpup
03-26-2006, 09:08 PM
Has anyone asked Bucky Dent what his lineups will look like?

will it be Dent or Chambliss?:p:

KronoRed
03-26-2006, 09:30 PM
he was one of the Reds best hitters.

At home ;)