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KearnsyEars
03-27-2006, 08:45 AM
Ok fellas, I wanna hear it. I drafted Dunn way early in my fantasy draft. He was ranked 13th overall by ESPN. What are his numbers gonna look like? Most important what will his average be? I feel if he can hit .270 he'll have a career year.

Here goes: .267, 106 runs, 50 HR, 113 RBI, 6 SB


I think he gets off to a horrid slow start out of the gates with alot of K's then has an excellent May-September. :beerme:

OnBaseMachine
03-27-2006, 09:12 AM
.280 BA
.430 OBP
.595 SLG
1.025 OPS
49 Homeruns
134 walks(Reds record)

Dunn generally gets off to a great start in April and then struggles badly in May. Look at his last three May's. Big dip in average and some power. Still a solid OBP in two of the three.

2003

April-.253/.382/.627-1.009 OPS

May-.193/.274/.518-.792 OPS

2004

April-.328/.538/.750-1.288 OPS 28 bb/24 k(possibly the best month in Reds history, or at least top 3)

May-.191/.345/.372-.717 OPS

2005

April-.292/.427/.694-1.121 OPS

May-.200/.392/.495-.887 OPS

For some odd reason, Dunn's batting average and power numbers have dropped off in May the last two seasons. Let's take a look at what his batting average would have looked like the last two seasons minus the month of May:

2004-.281

2005-.257(keep in mind he played most of the year with a fractured hand)

So, if Dunn gets off to one of his normal hot April's and can hit around .240 or so in Aprl, then I could see him having a solid batting average in the .280 area. I went with an optomisic choice of .280.

KearnsyEars
03-27-2006, 11:40 AM
I think he's a lock for 50 Homeruns this year. I really do. The thing i love most about Adam Dunn is that the son of a gun plays every day. I mean it just seems like come rain or shine, the tough texan gets out there and faces the music. I really like that about his game, he's a throwback of sorts in that aspect. If he can just play 150 games this season he's gonna hit 50.

pedro
03-27-2006, 12:01 PM
No one is ever a lock for 50 HR's.

TMBS, I think he'll do it too.

KearnsyEars
03-27-2006, 12:14 PM
Alright so I'm not alone!

RedsManRick
03-27-2006, 12:20 PM
If Dunn has any protection (meaning men on base ahead of him or real hitters behind him) and pitchers can't simply pitch around him, he'll put that many more balls in to play and 50 homers comes naturally -- without a big upswing in his contact rate. If he hits .270 or above, I think 50 homers is a very real possibility. Let's just hope Narron is smart enough to never bat him lower than 4th.

KronoRed
03-27-2006, 02:14 PM
If he's 5th again i expect years like the past.

I'd really love to see him work in the 3 spot.

KearnsyEars
03-28-2006, 10:47 AM
3rd or fourth would really make this guy happy. Why is that so hard for a ML caliber manager?

RedsManRick
03-28-2006, 11:24 AM
I could see him batting lower (5th) against lefties, but if he's anywhere but 3rd or 4th vs righties, Narron has major problems. One advantage of batting him 4th or 5th rather than 3rd is that he's more likely to either:

a.) bat in the first inning with men on base = rbi opportunity
b.) lead off the 2nd inning where his superior OBP becomes more valuable (as opposed to with 2 outs in the first)

I really think 4th is the perfect spot for Dunn. Because of his penchant for taking a walk, I'm not sure I'd want him up with 2 outs in the first and nobody on.

KearnsyEars
03-28-2006, 12:13 PM
Ahem.

Projections fellas, Projections :)

KronoRed
03-28-2006, 01:36 PM
.250 52 homers 110 RBIS..3 sac flys.

Cant Touch This
03-28-2006, 01:39 PM
.285
74 HRs
79 RBIs.
175 Ks
130 BBs

Cincinnati comes to life in September, not because of a playoff chase, but because it becomes home to the new single-season HR record in addition to the all-time hits leader. Cincy: We sure can hit. What's this glove thingy?

redsfan30
03-28-2006, 01:46 PM
.285
74 HRs
79 RBIs.
175 Ks
130 BBs

Cincinnati comes to life in September, not because of a playoff chase, but because it becomes home to the new single-season HR record in addition to the all-time hits leader. Cincy: We sure can hit. What's this glove thingy?
That'd be quite an impressive feat to hit .285 with 74 homeruns yet only drive in 79 runs.

Cant Touch This
03-28-2006, 01:47 PM
That's right. 74 solo shots and 5 sac flies. That's unrealistic, I know....he'd never hit 5 sac flies.

RedsBaron
03-28-2006, 02:03 PM
3rd or fourth would really make this guy happy. Why is that so hard for a ML caliber manager?
The Reds need a ML caliber manager. Boone wasn't one, Miley wasn't one, and Narron doesn't appear to be one.
I would bat Dunn second, followed by Kearns or EE, with Junior batting cleanup. Freel would lead off. Lopez would bat fifth, followed by either EE or Kearns. Womack would sell concessions.
Oh...projections? I really have no idea, but why not? .291 average, 57 HR, 126 RBI.

KearnsyEars
03-28-2006, 02:14 PM
man i really hope this is the year for 50 HR DUNN

BRM
03-28-2006, 03:15 PM
That's unrealistic, I know....he'd never hit 5 sac flies.

He hit four in 2003 so I'd say it's possible.

Larkin411
03-28-2006, 09:58 PM
.267, 41 HR, and 2 sac flies

redsfan30
03-28-2006, 10:33 PM
.267/43/104

Ohioballplayer
03-29-2006, 02:00 PM
.262
42 hr
129 rbi
106 runs

90 BB
157 K

Dom Heffner
03-29-2006, 06:15 PM
Dunn isn't going to hit above .250, and who really cares? He'll walk over a hundred times and put up close to 50 homeruns and around 100 RBIs with close to 100 runs scored. The guy is an underrated stud.

KearnsyEars
03-30-2006, 10:08 AM
I think he'll hit above .250

Puffy
03-30-2006, 10:36 AM
.268
48 HR's
109 RBI
.411 OBP
.985 OPS

KronoRed
03-30-2006, 02:48 PM
I like him below .250, gets the 'bat avg is all' group all riled up.