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Guacarock
03-27-2006, 03:23 PM
Ken Rosenthal of The Sporting News says in today's column that Baltimore offered SP Rodrigo Lopez for Wily Mo Pena, but the Reds preferred to deal with Boston for Bronson Arroyo instead. His take:

The Orioles were willing to trade righthander Rodrigo Lopez to the Reds for outfielder Wily Mo Pena, but the Reds preferred to acquire Red Sox righty Bronson Arroyo instead. Lopez, 30, is two years away from becoming a free agent; Arroyo, 29, is signed to an affordable contract for the next three. . . .

RedsManRick
03-27-2006, 03:31 PM
Arroyo's comprables through age 28 include:

4.) Rodrigo Lopez (974)
7.) Ted Lilly (969)
8.) Brett Tomko (968)

His #2 overall comp? Aaron Harang. Looks like cost certainty more than anything else.

Johnny Footstool
03-27-2006, 03:33 PM
I'd rather have Arroyo than Lopez.

traderumor
03-27-2006, 03:34 PM
Between the two, that sounds like the Reds made the right choice.

TRF
03-27-2006, 04:51 PM
If I have 2 teams offering me a starter, then the team with the starter plus a prospect wins.

If this is legit, then Krivsky should have gotten more from Boston. Not because Lopez is any great shakes, but because Arroyo just isn't THAT much better than him. It might even be a wash. Krivsky should have pushed the envelope and gotten a prospect along with Arroyo or just held on to WMP.

This IMO make the trade look worse.

traderumor
03-27-2006, 04:56 PM
Ah, the mythical prospect defense makes the trade look worse.

Team Clark
03-27-2006, 04:59 PM
Lopez's mechanics leave a lot to be desired. A LOT!!!! Good live arm but he's due for a break down.

pedro
03-27-2006, 05:01 PM
If I have 2 teams offering me a starter, then the team with the starter plus a prospect wins.

If this is legit, then Krivsky should have gotten more from Boston. Not because Lopez is any great shakes, but because Arroyo just isn't THAT much better than him. It might even be a wash. Krivsky should have pushed the envelope and gotten a prospect along with Arroyo or just held on to WMP.

This IMO make the trade look worse.

That makes no sense to me TRF.

Krivsky took the best of what was offered (at least between these two deals) especially considering the contract that Arroyo has. I don't see what additional leverage the fact that someone offered an obviously less attractive deal would have given the Reds.

TRF
03-27-2006, 05:02 PM
Ah, the mythical prospect defense makes the trade look worse.

Yup. And Saturday made it look even worse. Krivsky should have stood pat if the best he could have gotten was Arroyo or Lopez. Without a prospect, preferrably an arm, this trade was pretty damned lopsided in favor of Boston. They needed the YOUNG offensive talent more than the Reds needed another #3 starter. Now a #3 plus an arm, that would be worth it.

The more I think of this trade, the more it makes me want to wretch.

TRF
03-27-2006, 05:03 PM
That makes no sense to me TRF.

Krivsky took the best of what was offered (at least between these two deals) especially considering the contract that Arroyo has. I don't see what additional leverage the fact that someone offered an obviously less attractive deal would have given the Reds.

The best he could have done was turn down both teams unless they upped the ante.

Doc. Scott
03-27-2006, 05:04 PM
As well they should have.

Arroyo:

Career ERA+: 100
Best ERA+ in a Season: 121
0.95 HR/9 Career
5.6 K/9 Career
1.36 WHIP

Lopez:

Career ERA+: 96
Best ERA+ in a Season: 133
1.21 HR/9 Career
5.95 K/9 Career
1.38 WHIP

Not that far apart in overall results, but Arroyo's cheaper, over a year younger, and the home run rate is a much better fit for GABP. Also, Lopez' hair is much less interesting.

But if Lopez was offered with another B-level prospect, then I agree with TRF.

RedsManRick
03-27-2006, 05:06 PM
So Boston calls his him on it, flips Arroyo for Craig Wilson, and there goes the better of your two offers. Then, the Orioles knowing that Boston was their competion, pull Lopez and offer somebody even worse. I know you think he should've held out until he got what he wanted TRF, even if that means the break, but you can't wait forever and Pena's value (believe it or not) could go down. Further, deals don't stay on the table in perpetuity.

Why do we think the Orioles were offering a prospect?

Shaknb8k
03-27-2006, 05:07 PM
I think this just furthers the point that an ealier post was made on. That being the one where Krivsky wants to have a definate payroll where he knows pretty much what the payroll will be for the next year and knows what how much he has to deal with rather than having to worry about arbitration years with players.

M2
03-27-2006, 05:15 PM
Though Leo Mazzone may perform some magic on him this season, I wouldn't want to see Lopez in a Reds uni.

traderumor
03-27-2006, 05:19 PM
Though Leo Mazzone may perform some magic on him this season, I wouldn't want to see Lopez in a Reds uni.
We have. His arm fell off last year and whether or not it is reattached is anyone's guess.

Johnny Footstool
03-27-2006, 05:19 PM
So Boston calls his him on it, flips Arroyo for Craig Wilson, and there goes the better of your two offers. Then, the Orioles knowing that Boston was their competion, pull Lopez and offer somebody even worse. I know you think he should've held out until he got what he wanted TRF, even if that means the break, but you can't wait forever and Pena's value (believe it or not) could go down. Further, deals don't stay on the table in perpetuity.

So worst-case, the Reds miss out on two average pitchers and keep Pena. No big loss.

Injuries come up during the season. Teams look for missing pieces. Lots of teams have pitchers like Arroyo they might be willing to deal as the season unfolds.

I think a lot of you have grown allergic to being patient thanks to DanO, but patience and impotence are two different things.

pedro
03-27-2006, 05:20 PM
The best he could have done was turn down both teams unless they upped the ante.


yeah, but then Boston might have traded Arroyo for Craig Wilson.

pedro
03-27-2006, 05:22 PM
Yup. And Saturday made it look even worse. Krivsky should have stood pat if the best he could have gotten was Arroyo or Lopez. Without a prospect, preferrably an arm, this trade was pretty damned lopsided in favor of Boston. They needed the YOUNG offensive talent more than the Reds needed another #3 starter. Now a #3 plus an arm, that would be worth it.

The more I think of this trade, the more it makes me want to wretch.

I don't really agree with that. The Reds are much more desperate for any decent pitching that the Reds Sox are for a player taht isn;t even going to start for them accept for maybe againt lefties.

traderumor
03-27-2006, 05:23 PM
So worst-case, the Reds miss out on two average pitchers and keep Pena. No big loss.

Injuries come up during the season. Teams look for missing pieces. Lots of teams have pitchers like Arroyo they might be willing to deal as the season unfolds.

I think a lot of you have grown allergic to being patient thanks to DanO, but patience and impotence are two different things.Yea, and on a sinking ship, I'd rather have an average mate who knows how to lower a life boat than a muscle bound bloak from the coal room that doesn't.

OnBaseMachine
03-27-2006, 05:23 PM
I wonder if the Mets would have dealt Aaron Heilman for Pena?

Heilman is having a great spring as a starter, but word is the Mets may put him back in the bullpen. He is someone I would love to see Krivsky target, though it's hard to imagine them dealing him for anyone not named Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, or Felipe Lopez.

pedro
03-27-2006, 05:24 PM
I think a lot of you are underestimating the value of having any pitcher capable of turning in 200 innings in a Reds uniform. Arroyo may be nothing special but he is a cheap league average innings muncher (LAIM)

pedro
03-27-2006, 05:26 PM
I wonder if the Mets would have dealt Aaron Heilman for Pena?

Heilman is having a great spring as a starter, but word is the Mets may put him back in the bullpen. He is someone I would love to see Krivsky target, though it's hard to imagine them dealing him for anyone not named Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, or Felipe Lopez.

I'm not sold on Heilman. He may turn out ok, but I don;t think his upside is that much greater than Arroyo's and he still hasn't proven he can cut it as a starter yet.

Nugget
03-27-2006, 05:26 PM
And that's where the REDS have failed in last few years. Hanging on to their offensive prospects in the hope that their trade value will increase. WMP is worth what you can get for him, no more. Obviously other GMs know that. The REDS need pitching and Arroyo is an improvement over what the REDS have available. Your not going to get a #1 or #2 without giving up Dunn.

traderumor
03-27-2006, 05:28 PM
And that's where the REDS have failed in last few years. Hanging on to their offensive prospects in the hope that their trade value will increase. WMP is worth what you can get for him, no more. Obviously other GMs know that. The REDS need pitching and Arroyo is an improvement over what the REDS have available. Your not going to get a #1 or #2 without giving up Dunn.
WMP is internet stock

TRF
03-27-2006, 05:28 PM
I don't really agree with that. The Reds are much more desperate for any decent pitching that the Reds Sox are for a player taht isn;t even going to start for them accept for maybe againt lefties.

Pena is 24, likely to platoon this year only, and you can bet as the season progresses he'll get more PT. Trot Nixon is on his last legs, and Boston has no one in their system to replace him.

Yes, the Reds are desperate for pitching. But you can bet Arroyo won't give them much more than Dave Williams will. The Reds ML system is such a barren wasteland, that ANY trade of a young offensive talent like WMP HAS to net two players in return. Especially from a large market team like Boston.

Getting less for WMP than the Reds did for Guillen in full firesale mode is criminal.

TRF
03-27-2006, 05:29 PM
WMP is internet stock

And wouldn't you have loved to have bought AOL in 1992?

traderumor
03-27-2006, 05:31 PM
Getting less for WMP than the Reds did for Guillen in full firesale mode is criminal.That red herring's been addressed at least a couple of times. The Reds essentially got Harang for Guillen. Valentine and Bruksch were fodder. Pardon me if I tell the BoSox thank you, but I'll take $1.5M and go shopping somewhere else.

kbrake
03-27-2006, 05:32 PM
Yup. And Saturday made it look even worse. Krivsky should have stood pat if the best he could have gotten was Arroyo or Lopez. Without a prospect, preferrably an arm, this trade was pretty damned lopsided in favor of Boston. They needed the YOUNG offensive talent more than the Reds needed another #3 starter. Now a #3 plus an arm, that would be worth it.

The more I think of this trade, the more it makes me want to wretch.

It is unbelievable how highly you guys think of Wily Mo. He has proved nothing over an entire season, not a thing. Krivsky goes out and gets a good starter that we have for at least 3 years unless he flips him at the break. A time when Arroyo would get more then Pena anyways.

Another thing can we stop with the "another #3 or #4 starter" I'm sorry but there is only a small handfuls of true #1's in all of baseball and if you think Pena was worth more then what we got, again I think you are sadly mistaken. The way I look at it before this deal this rotation had 2 MLB starters, Harang and Claussen, now it has 3. You can assign all the numbers you want to these guys but if Arroyo is a 3, then Milton, Williams, and Wilson are 8's.

traderumor
03-27-2006, 05:32 PM
And wouldn't you have loved to have bought AOL in 1992?he's the .com that folks are still holding onto and including in their prayers when the head hits the pillow at night.

westofyou
03-27-2006, 05:32 PM
And wouldn't you have loved to have bought AOL in 1992?Webvan is more like it.

TRF
03-27-2006, 05:34 PM
And that's where the REDS have failed in last few years. Hanging on to their offensive prospects in the hope that their trade value will increase. WMP is worth what you can get for him, no more. Obviously other GMs know that. The REDS need pitching and Arroyo is an improvement over what the REDS have available. Your not going to get a #1 or #2 without giving up Dunn.

No their failure was giving LT contracts to players that were not offensive juggernaughts (Casey) or pitching studs (Milton, Graves)

And, yes you can get a #1 without giving up Dunn. That #1 might be in AA right now, but he is there. If said team lost it's CF to it's biggest rival, then yes they can give up more. A good GM would have made them realize that too. Theo had a better poker face, and the Reds lost this trade.

TRF
03-27-2006, 05:36 PM
Webvan is more like it.

Nah, AOL is a better comp. Starts out with low value because no one realized what they had. And the stock gains value and never looks back.

Now Austin Kearns is like pets.com. A lot of fanfare and nothing to show for it.

TRF
03-27-2006, 05:39 PM
That red herring's been addressed at least a couple of times. The Reds essentially got Harang for Guillen. Valentine and Bruksch were fodder. Pardon me if I tell the BoSox thank you, but I'll take $1.5M and go shopping somewhere else.

exactly right. Except WMP has far more upside than Guillen had at the time. A better track record too. So they should demand better prospects.

westofyou
03-27-2006, 05:46 PM
Nah, AOL is a better comp. Starts out with low value because no one realized what they had. And the stock gains value and never looks back.

Now Austin Kearns is like pets.com. A lot of fanfare and nothing to show for it.
Yeah getting on base and fielding don't matter, sorry I'm not buying it.

RedsManRick
03-27-2006, 05:48 PM
So worst-case, the Reds miss out on two average pitchers and keep Pena. No big loss.

Injuries come up during the season. Teams look for missing pieces. Lots of teams have pitchers like Arroyo they might be willing to deal as the season unfolds.

I think a lot of you have grown allergic to being patient thanks to DanO, but patience and impotence are two different things.

So on a team desperate for pitching, you hold out hope that Wily Mo explodes and some team comes to you during the season willing to give up a legitimate starter? When was the last time a team traded a legitimate

Average is not a bad thing! If the Reds had a staff full of average pitchers we'd be a playoff team. I'm not saying I love the Arroyo deal. However, Wily Mo's stock was not going to significantly increase unless he suddenly learned how to hit breaking stuff from righties. However, the potential market for his services was more likely to decrease than increase as the season wore on. Pitching becomes more valuable as the season goes on -- not hitting -- due to frequency of injuries.

I would love to have gotten a Scott Baker for Pena, but the deal just wasn't out there. If it was, O'Brien would've made it last year or Krivsky would've this spring. If you hold on to Wily Mo, you're right -- worst case scenario is we get nothing for him. That's a bad thing. I'm sorry if you feel that this team isn't improved by 3 years of a league average starter at sub-market cost. I agree, potentially there was some deal in the future that would've been better than Arroyo. However, when you have the worst rotation and baseball and can add somebody who easily slots as your #3 starter, you can't just hold out and hope something better comes along.

PuffyPig
03-27-2006, 05:51 PM
That red herring's been addressed at least a couple of times. The Reds essentially got Harang for Guillen. Valentine and Bruksch were fodder. Pardon me if I tell the BoSox thank you, but I'll take $1.5M and go shopping somewhere else.
It's eaven better than that.

At the time of the trade, most of the board thought that Harang would never amount to much.

Arroyo is way better thought of today than Harang was at the time of the trade.

The Guiillen trade turned out so well because Harang developed into, well, Arroyo. WIth Arroyo signed cheaply for three years, that's the equivalent of a B prospect. Actually, it's probably the equivalent of 10 B proespects.

Turning your nose up at a good deal because the other team won't throw in a B prospect strikes me as bad judgement. Especially if they are already thowing $1.5M your way.

Highlifeman21
03-27-2006, 05:52 PM
It is unbelievable how highly you guys think of Wily Mo. He has proved nothing over an entire season, not a thing. Krivsky goes out and gets a good starter that we have for at least 3 years unless he flips him at the break. A time when Arroyo would get more then Pena anyways.

Another thing can we stop with the "another #3 or #4 starter" I'm sorry but there is only a small handfuls of true #1's in all of baseball and if you think Pena was worth more then what we got, again I think you are sadly mistaken. The way I look at it before this deal this rotation had 2 MLB starters, Harang and Claussen, now it has 3. You can assign all the numbers you want to these guys but if Arroyo is a 3, then Milton, Williams, and Wilson are 8's.


I couldn't agree more. WMP was nothing special. Defensive liability, free swinger, raw talent... that's it. It's not like we traded Adam Dunn for Bronson Arroyo. We traded an excess OF for someone who will argueably be our #2 starter. Makes a lot of sense to me. Sure, I wanted to see WMP develop in a Reds uni, but if I can get a semi-proven arm with Arroyo, I can't have anything but good feelings about this trade.

Now if we'd only trade Jason LaRue after his knee heals...

RedsManRick
03-27-2006, 05:52 PM
exactly right. Except WMP has far more upside than Guillen had at the time. A better track record too. So they should demand better prospects.

When Wily Mo puts up a half season of .337/.385/.629 and solid defense, then you can expect more. You don't always get great REAL value for potential -- you either get a different kind of potential or less actual value than the potential value than you're trading. The Reds needed real pitching. Also, look at Aaron Harang's Oakland stats and what Joe Valentine has accomplished... you think Arroyo was really that much less of a return?

TRF
03-27-2006, 05:55 PM
Yeah getting on base and fielding don't matter, sorry I'm not buying it.

Hard to do from the trainers table. Dude is brittle and has been all the way back to his days in the minors.

TRF
03-27-2006, 05:59 PM
Arroyo is way better thought of today than Harang was at the time of the trade.

By who? Harang was younger and had at least some upside. He has improved his numbers 3 years straight now.

Arroyo is what he is, and not likely at his age to be much more. Harang may have hit his ceiling last year, or maybe not.

Personally, I'd have traded Kearns. His perceived value is much higher because of skills WMP never got a chance to develop. But Kearns is injury prone and perhaps that played into it.

pedro
03-27-2006, 06:03 PM
Arroyo is what he is, and not likely at his age to be much more. Harang may have hit his ceiling last year, or maybe not.

Personally, I'd have traded Kearns. His perceived value is much higher because of skills WMP never got a chance to develop. But Kearns is injury prone and perhaps that played into it.


I agree that Arroyo is what he is and that's unlikely to change but the Reds do have him for 3 years at below market cost.

As for trading Kearns instead of WMP, I couldn't disagree more. Someone on this team has to be a plus defender and that sure as hell wasn't going to be WMP.

ochre
03-27-2006, 06:05 PM
Kearns wasn't injury prone in the minors. His injury problems started with getting involved in an unfortunate sumo incident at the plate in an episode of MXC filmed in Cincinnati. From there he had the freak thumb injury. To say he is injury prone because of two seperate injuries that both lingered is a bit misleading.

pedro
03-27-2006, 06:06 PM
Lordy, lordy are you overvaluing WMP TRF.

Maybe I'm overvalueing Arroyo too, but I still think it's a trade the Reds had to make.

westofyou
03-27-2006, 06:07 PM
Hard to do from the trainers table. Dude is brittle and has been all the way back to his days in the minors.
No the dude has had a serious of accidents that are more game related than brittle related, J.D. Drew is "brittle" Kearns isn't.

pedro
03-27-2006, 06:13 PM
BP panned the deal too, but I don't agree with them either.

PuffyPig
03-27-2006, 06:44 PM
By who? Harang was younger and had at least some upside. He has improved his numbers 3 years straight now.



By most everyone on this board. Many thought that Valentine was the better prospect. Don't confuse what Harang has become to what most thought he was. Arroyo is already better than what the majority thought Harang could become. And signed to a cheap 3 year contract.

Three years ago, that upside you talk about with Harang was that he could become a servicable #4-5 starter. At best. he's done muxh better than that. The fact that many compare Harang to Arroyo tells me that Arroyo is a pretty fair pitcher.

Doc. Scott
03-27-2006, 06:47 PM
BP panned the deal too, but I don't agree with them either.

What was their pithy quote?

pedro
03-27-2006, 06:49 PM
What was their pithy quote?

from bp....

Dealing Pena for somebody else's fifth starter doesn't just give you a fifth starter, it may also cripple up your opportunities to swing other possible deals with the outfielders you've got left. Can the Reds afford to move Ken Griffey Jr. now? Even with Pena out of the way, they're not creating an opportunity for Denorfia, they're making it that much easier to give significant playing time to Scott Hatteberg, or perhaps to play Ryan Freel in the outfield a little more often, just to make sure they have Tony Womack in the lineup. As much as Krivsky inherited a weak hand, this was a deal that did nothing to make it any better, with the best possible outcome being that perhaps they'll flip Arroyo to a contender looking for a fifth man in July. Failing that, this is a reconstruction project that will really have to start from scratch, reliant on the draft's slowly-delivered gifts, and without the benefit of adding near-ready prospects from other systems through a needed tear-down.

westofyou
03-27-2006, 07:03 PM
What was their pithy quote?

Here's mine.

"Don't over value power in a power age, never underestimate getting on base and the defensive spectrum."

blumj
03-27-2006, 07:19 PM
Lopez is a little older, under contract for one less season, and might have some injury history, although I don't know for sure, I do know Arroyo has none. Doesn't even ice. They're pretty close to the same guy otherwise, so I'd say Bronson was the better choice. Plus you got the $1.5 million to even up the salaries for this season, and I don't see Angelos matching that. Hell, the only downside I see is for the Red Sox, who actually had the opportunity to get a pitcher who owns them out of their division and got in the way.

Mario-Rijo
03-27-2006, 07:38 PM
Except WMP has far more upside than Guillen had at the time. A better track record too. So they should demand better prospects.


I'm not so sure that is the case. Yeah he's much younger than Guillen and his power potential is much greater and perhaps his wheels are a tad better. But It's hard to imagine him being Jose's equivalent defensively, yeah Wily has a cannon but Guillen's arm is one of the best i've seen in a few years (Strength and Accuracy) with a guy like Richard Hidalgo maybe just a tad under Vladimirs arm. And if anyone remembers correctly Jose Guillen could not be stopped that summer, he was hitting everything and hitting it w/ authority.

I know what people are feeling, if Wily Mo reaches his potential we got absolutely smoked, if he doesn't we probably got a slightly better deal. If he becomes average in those weak areas the Sox got the better end. Yeah nowhere in there does it show where we get to smoke the Sox on this deal because Arroyo has likely fully reached his potential and it's not overwhelming frankly it's just well.. whelming. However I would say that better whelming that not even on the radar.

The general feeling about Arroyo is that he could be the equivalent of Milton from the right side because he throws nearly as many FB's as he does GB's in a notorious hitters/homer friendly park. And he is dependent on the defense behind him because his stuff is not special. I say for one if this is the case his ERA would have been 7.+ in years past due to the absolutely morbid defense he had behind him at times in Boston which incidentally is also a hitters park. He also had the specter of never really knowing if he would be in the Rotation or the Pen.

Sure he loved Boston and he was willing to leave it all out there on the line for them and he was always on a grand stage no matter when he stepped out there. So he had those things going for him. But whose to say that he won't feel that way about Cincy before it's all said & done? We are a tight knit group of "idiots" (Ok maybe not idiots), but definitely tight knit, we have our own dirty water right outside the stadium, us fans are every bit as passionate (Note the "WE" references) we are just probably more reality based than Boston (some of us anyway).

All that said I am looking at the big picture and if we stay competitive enough this year to improve the attendance semi-significantly we have a shot at adding perhaps 1 or 2 big pieces next year to make us a contender. Frankly this trade was not so much about the players involved as it was about positions with respect to making us a better team this year and for the future. Hey look although we once traded away one of the best players of all time in his prime (See Robinson, Frank) it didn't stop us from becoming one of the best franchises of all time and the team of the 1970's (2 championships in 4 WS appearances). In fact it may have actually helped us, I mean if we had Frank during the '68 season are we in a position to draft the best Catcher of all-time and perhaps the most pivotal player on the team? Frank had a down year that year but I would be willing to bet we wouldn't have been in that position!

So if Wily Mo becomes great we can say we knew he could and if he doesn't we can say we seen it coming. But what we can say with certainty is we got 3 world championships in the past 30 years who else can say that? Us and the Yankees not L.A., Not St Louis, Chicago, Philly or Mets and especially not Boston. And if Kharma plays into it (which I'm a big believer in) then we did what we had to for us and Wily Mo, we can say we got more coming. :thumbup:

Patrick Bateman
03-27-2006, 07:55 PM
In fact it may have actually helped us, I mean if we had Frank during the '68 season are we in a position to draft the best Catcher of all-time and perhaps the most pivotal player on the team? Frank had a down year that year but I would be willing to bet we wouldn't have been in that position!



Bench's first year for the Reds was in 67, as he was drafted in the second round in the major's first draft in 65 (when Frank was still with the team).

westofyou
03-27-2006, 07:59 PM
Bench's first year for the Reds was in 67, as he was drafted in the second round in the major's first draft in 65 (when Frank was still with the team).
That's right, and IIRC he was the 2nd catcher taken, looked down on because of the level of compition that his teams played.

Carbo was the first pick by the Reds, who didn't use the 1st pick on a college guy until they picked Pat Pacillo in 1984

westofyou
03-27-2006, 08:03 PM
Hey look although we once traded away one of the best players of all time in his prime (See Robinson, Frank) it didn't stop us from becoming one of the best franchises of all timeThat's because the move was so lamented as bad that it helped push a owner with less capital out the door and allowed ones with more capital to step in.

Otherwise the Reds continue the selling of plus 30 year old players ala the Cardinals and guys like Rose, Perez and Bench become guys like May, Edwards and Deron Johnson, jettisoned heros.

Anyway, Bill DeWtt never would have traded for Joe Morgan, he liked BA driven guys who got the bat on the ball. he'd have probably considered the talk of Morgan as a troublemaker as the truth too.

TRF
03-27-2006, 08:07 PM
No the dude has had a serious of accidents that are more game related than brittle related, J.D. Drew is "brittle" Kearns isn't.

no. he's brittle. always has been. he was injured in Chatt. when Dunn exploded in 2001. he's been injured every year since.

pedro
03-27-2006, 08:29 PM
no. he's brittle. always has been. he was injured in Chatt. when Dunn exploded in 2001. he's been injured every year since.

I don't think he was injured last year.

Patrick Bateman
03-27-2006, 08:46 PM
That's right, and IIRC he was the 2nd catcher taken, looked down on because of the level of compition that his teams played.

Carbo was the first pick by the Reds, who didn't use the 1st pick on a college guy until they picked Pat Pacillo in 1984

Most teams considered Bench a pitcher, which is one reason he fell into the second round.

westofyou
03-27-2006, 08:52 PM
no. he's brittle. always has been. he was injured in Chatt. when Dunn exploded in 2001. he's been injured every year since.

Brittle is what Brittle was

Kearns

2001 - Torn thumb ligament (RH)
2003 - Ray King Shoulder
2004 - Broken Bone (HBP) Continued Thumb problems from 2001 injury.

Pena

2002 - Torn Left Hamstring
2004 - Bruised Chest Wall, strained Right Hammy, sore wrist (missed 23 games)
2005 - Strained left quadriceps muscle (15-day DL

Newman4
03-27-2006, 09:14 PM
I think the Kearns/Pena debate will be just like the Stillwell/Larkin debate.....except this time we traded the wrong one.

kbrake
03-27-2006, 09:22 PM
I dont see why we are stopping with Pena, if someone will offer us a good starter I would send Kearns out in a second.

membengal
03-27-2006, 10:13 PM
Too bad the O's didn't step up with a Bedard for Pena offer...

pedro
03-27-2006, 10:22 PM
I think the Kearns/Pena debate will be just like the Stillwell/Larkin debate.....except this time we traded the wrong one.

I doubt that.

pedro
03-27-2006, 10:26 PM
Too bad the O's didn't step up with a Bedard for Pena offer...

Bedard is interesting. My worry with him is if he will really turn into a 200 innning pitcher. But his salary is low and he woudl have been under the reds control for 3-4 years.

biggestREDSfan
03-27-2006, 11:24 PM
I agree with taking Arroyo over Lopez. It would be very nice if the Reds could get Lopez also! I would go for that if we do not have to trade half of the team for him.

Johnny Footstool
03-27-2006, 11:40 PM
Too bad the O's didn't step up with a Bedard for Pena offer...

Or Bedard for Kearns. I'd jump on that one, too.

registerthis
03-28-2006, 12:12 AM
I would like to know when the scrub "B" prospect became the holy grail of trade deals. So Boston throws in a career AA outfielder to complete the package, rather than the $1.5. mil. Where does that leave the Reds? No better off than they are now.

This incessant whining about the lack of some random prospect being tossed into the Pena deal is just getting tiring. Pena's value was simply not that high, no matter how it is spun. He might, possibly, become a more well-rounded player and drive his value upwards, but the Reds decided they'd rather not gamble on that. Expecting an additional player of value to go along with an established durable ML pitcher in exchange for Pena is a classic symptom of overvalueitis.

westofyou
03-28-2006, 12:37 AM
Expecting an additional player of value to go along with an established durable ML pitcher in exchange for Pena is a classic symptom of overvalueitis.Especially since the market is flooded with corner OF types with power. Couple that witht he fact that Reds have had exactly 2 pitchers with 200 IP since 2000. Other teams like the Cardinals have had 13, the Reds need to be more like other teams when it comes to pitching and defense and a lot less like the Reds.

Jpup
03-28-2006, 07:45 AM
Or Bedard for Kearns. I'd jump on that one, too.

Baltimore wanted Dunn for Bedard. Thank God they Reds didn't do it. I can't see any deal that gets Bedard to Cincinnati unless Krivsky gets taken.

Lopez is a decent guy, but Arroyo is better. I would much rather have Lopez than Dave Williams.

I want to see the Reds get Philadelphia's Brett Myers. I think he would be great for the Reds, but again, I don't think the Reds have anything to trade them.

OnBaseMachine
03-28-2006, 07:55 AM
I want to see the Reds get Philadelphia's Brett Myers. I think he would be great for the Reds, but again, I don't think the Reds have anything to trade them.

It would take Dunn to get Brett Myers, although I think Myers is one of the best pitchers in the league, I still would not deal Dunn for him. I actually stated way back in 2004 that the Reds should targer Myers, since he was coming off a disappointing 2004 season(5.52 ERA).

Now that Myers is pretty much untouchable, the Reds should go after fellow Philly pitcher Gavin Floyd. Gavin's situation is pretty similar to that of Myers a couple years ago - he has very good stuff...good enough to be a number two starter, but he has had a couple disappointing seasons and as a result the Phils are a little down on him. Now is the time to deal for Floyd and hope he can put it together like Myers did.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/F/gavin-floyd.shtml

Jpup
03-28-2006, 07:59 AM
It would take Dunn to get Brett Myers, although I think Myers is one of the best pitchers in the league, I still would not deal Dunn for him. I actually stated way back in 2004 that the Reds should targer Myers, since he was coming off a disappointing 2004 season(5.52 ERA).

Now that Myers is pretty much untouchable, the Reds should go after fellow Philly pitcher Gavin Floyd. Gavin's situation is pretty similar to that of Myers a couple years ago - he has very good stuff...good enough to be a number two starter, but he has had a couple disappointing seasons and as a result the Phils are a little down on him. Now is the time to deal for Floyd and hope he can put it together like Myers did.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/F/gavin-floyd.shtml

good points. I wouldn't deal Dunn for him either.

VI_RedsFan
03-28-2006, 08:41 AM
I wouldn't mind getting Lopez. He isn't an ace, but he's an innings eater who won 15 games last year. I would deal Williams and Belisle for him. Another trade that I would think about would be Valentin or LaRue(when he is healthy) for Gavin Floyd.

TRF
03-28-2006, 09:17 AM
Why does anyone think Arroyo will give the Reds 200 IP? Because he has done it once? I'm sorry, but i see him topping out at around 170 ip for a variety of reasons: I think he'll get in trouble with the long ball, NL style of play often dictates early removal of pitchers and finally I don't think Narron will be able to let him pitch out of jams.

westofyou
03-28-2006, 09:22 AM
Why does anyone think Arroyo will give the Reds 200 IP? Because he has done it once?

On the otherside of the coin what mkes anyone think Pena's game willl ever be anything else but power against lh's?

Because he hit 26 HR's once?

TRF
03-28-2006, 09:34 AM
well he did follow that 26 with 19 in 25 fewer AB's. so yeah i do.

Arroyo has 2 seasons above 170 ip. He pitched as a flyball pitcher last year. His game doesn't play well in GABP and he's had a pretty crappy spring.

On the other hand, Pena's game does play well in Fenway. His fielding might be an adventure in LF, but his offensive game fits that park a lot better than Arroyos fits in Cincinnati.

I have been critical of probably three moves in the last 5 years. Signing Randa, signing Aurilia and this trade. I hope i got 2 out of 3 right. I hope I am wrong. I just don't think I am.

westofyou
03-28-2006, 09:40 AM
well he did follow that 26 with 19 in 25 fewer AB's. so yeah i do.

The Reds have 3 straight seasons with a 5 plus team ERA, they also have perhaps the worst team defense in 75 years.

The Reds set a team record for EBH last year and WMP accounted for exactly 6.9% of those hits and he contributed mightly to the team defense problem.

Bronson Arroyo ain't no Milt Pappas... but WMP is certainly not Frank Robinson, nor will his departure cause the Reds to spiral into a tailspin to the cellar.

They've already set up shop there anyway.

TRF
03-28-2006, 09:54 AM
Maybe so, but to me all Arroyo has done is replace Paul Wilson's putrid numbers with another set of Eric Milton.

blech.

It's like ERA subtraction by multiplication.

westofyou
03-28-2006, 09:58 AM
Maybe so, but to me all Arroyo has done is replace Paul Wilson's putrid numbers with another set of Eric Milton.

Talk about hyperbole.

registerthis
03-28-2006, 10:02 AM
Maybe so, but to me all Arroyo has done is replace Paul Wilson's putrid numbers with another set of Eric Milton.

Well, alrighty then. Arroyo and Milton are the same pitcher?

Then I guess comparing Pena to Russell Branyan would be appropriate.

osuceltic
03-28-2006, 10:39 AM
... the Reds need to be more like other teams when it comes to pitching and defense and a lot less like the Reds.

Bingo. And I think many fans have become so used to the miserable pitching and defense that they no longer realize just how bad it is. It's not just bad. It's historically bad. We can't use the Reds as our point of reference. Look at other teams. Look at past teams. Break out of this time-induced stupor that makes us numb to spectacularly bad pitching and defense. Pena-Arroyo was one the first step. It won't be the last. We finally have a GM who gets it.

TRF
03-28-2006, 10:45 AM
Well, alrighty then. Arroyo and Milton are the same pitcher?

Then I guess comparing Pena to Russell Branyan would be appropriate.

close. but because of his age, ridiculous contract, and lack of development, he has very few comps. But Branyan is close i guess. Sosa is probably a good comp at this point in his career.

TRF
03-28-2006, 10:49 AM
Talk about hyperbole.

really?

IMO last year was not the real Eric Milton. NOBODY could be that bad two years in a row. That said, I think he will be bad again this year... mebbe a 4.95-5.25 era, 35+ HR's allowed.

I think Arroyo will be in the 4.75+ era neighborhood, with around 30+ HR's allowed. I think he is vastly overrated.

registerthis
03-28-2006, 11:06 AM
close. but because of his age, ridiculous contract, and lack of development, he has very few comps. But Branyan is close i guess. Sosa is probably a good comp at this point in his career.

If Branyan is a good comp for Pena, then what on Earth is your beef with this deal? Surely a 24 year old Branyan wouldn't be worth an established starter + a legitimate prospect?

westofyou
03-28-2006, 11:12 AM
really?

You betcha.... you want to use only Sosa as your comp when the landscape is littered with ballplayers who couldn't master anything other than power.

TRF
03-28-2006, 11:12 AM
I like Branyan and would have preferred keeping him at 3B over the dreck that followed him. I also said Sosa was a better comp.

BTW Branyan has nowhere near WMP's speed, and was 25 before he topped 65 games played in a single season.

WMP is rather unique over the past 15 years.

TRF
03-28-2006, 11:15 AM
You betcha.... you want to use only Sosa as your comp when the landscape is littered with ballplayers who couldn't master anything other than power.

Yeah. he could be Ruben Rivera. But the rest of you say Arroyo is going to be a league average pitcher, based on what? Sosa might very well be WMP's ceiling. Arroyo's ceiling is what?

registerthis
03-28-2006, 11:16 AM
I like Branyan and would have preferred keeping him at 3B over the dreck that followed him. I also said Sosa was a better comp.

And you could have done that, but without improving the pitching the Reds would be *exactly* where they are right now. Nothing gained.

westofyou
03-28-2006, 11:17 AM
But the rest of you say Arroyo is going to be a league average pitcher, based on what?

Probably the last 1640 hitters he faced in the games toughest divison in a pure pitchers park.

BRONSON ARROYO


2004-2005

YEAR TEAM AGE W L PCT G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB SO ERA RSAA
2004 Red Sox 27 10 9 .526 32 29 0 0 0 178.2 171 99 80 47 142 4.03 18
2005 Red Sox 28 14 10 .583 35 32 0 0 1 205.1 213 116 103 54 100 4.51 -2
TOTALS 24 19 .558 67 61 0 0 1 384 384 215 183 101 242 4.29 16
LG AVERAGE 22 21 .503 2 0 384 397 208 192 135 269 4.49 0

YEAR TEAM HR H/9 BR/9 SO/9 BB/9 SO/BB SHO WP IBB HBP BFP BK NW NL
2004 Red Sox 17 8.61 11.99 7.15 2.37 3.02 0 5 3 20 764 0 11 8
2005 Red Sox 22 9.34 12.32 4.38 2.37 1.85 0 5 3 14 878 1 12 12
TOTALS 39 9.00 12.16 5.67 2.37 2.40 0 10 6 34 1642 1 23 20
LG AVERAGE 47 9.31 12.87 6.29 3.17 1.99 1 13 9 17 1662 2

registerthis
03-28-2006, 11:18 AM
Arroyo's ceiling is what?

The same, undefineable ceiling people seem to want to place on Pena, for no discernable reason.

TRF
03-28-2006, 11:23 AM
And he's a flyball pitcher moving to a park that inflates HR totals, he has trouble with LH hitters and had a sharp decline in his K/9.

In this park, in this division that's a recipe for disaster. BTW 18 games against the Yankess does not make it the toughest division unless you are a team not named Red Sox.

Arroyo is going to have to face the defending NL champs, a loaded Cards team, a young powerhouse in Milwaukee, plus tough games in Chicago. Pittsburgh... pheh. improved pitching and a judy offense.

Meanwhile, WMP gets to feast on D-Ray pitching, Baltimore is a sad sad place to be, The Yankees 3-4-5 in the rotation inspires no fear, while the Blue Jays might be better or might just be expensive.

blumj
03-28-2006, 11:24 AM
in a pure pitchers park.

Probably not what you meant?

TRF
03-28-2006, 11:24 AM
The same, undefineable ceiling people seem to want to place on Pena, for no discernable reason.

No, Pena gets that ceiling because of flashes and youth.

Arroyo is 29. he is what he is, and he is as likely to regress as he is to maintain. Improvement, I just don't see it.

Doc. Scott
03-28-2006, 11:24 AM
I like Branyan and would have preferred keeping him at 3B over the dreck that followed him. I also said Sosa was a better comp.

BTW Branyan has nowhere near WMP's speed, and was 25 before he topped 65 games played in a single season.

WMP is rather unique over the past 15 years.

Glenallen Hill is the guy who comes to my mind. Great power, but brittle and so bad defensively he couldn't stay in the lineup.

pedro
03-28-2006, 11:34 AM
Glenallen Hill is the guy who comes to my mind. Great power, but brittle and so bad defensively he couldn't stay in the lineup.

Doc, that's a good comp.

TRF, I have a hard time believing that GAPB is any worse a hitters park than Fenway.

TRF
03-28-2006, 11:40 AM
Fenway grades at .886 for HR's
GABP grades at 1.263 for HR's

for a flyball pitcher that doesn't K anyone, those are huge numbers.

GABP kills triples and is lower than Fenway in doubles, but still gives up more hits. Overall GABP is the third best hitters park, Fenway is 13th.

registerthis
03-28-2006, 11:42 AM
No, Pena gets that ceiling because of flashes and youth.

Which could be said of literally hundreds of players throughout history. I haven't seen any indication that he's going to improve this year--or anytime soon. Sosa didn't develop into a truly fearsome hitter until his early 30s, I'm not content with the Reds carrying an average offensive player with lacking defensive skills on a team overloaded with offense but no semblance of a pitching staff.

pedro
03-28-2006, 11:44 AM
Fenway grades at .886 for HR's
GABP grades at 1.263 for HR's

for a flyball pitcher that doesn't K anyone, those are huge numbers.

GABP kills triples and is lower than Fenway in doubles, but still gives up more hits. Overall GABP is the third best hitters park, Fenway is 13th.

thanks. where did you find those btw?

fwiw, I think the GABP numbers may be misleading because of the Reds crappy pitching, power hitting, and relatively small sample size.

TRF
03-28-2006, 11:47 AM
ESPN.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

These are the PF for 2005. The Reds crappry pitching does play into it, as well as the prolific offense, but the situation in Boston is prolific offense and good pitching. Maybe that accounts for the disparity in the HR measurement, but if it doesn't, Arroyo's in for a rough ride.

SteelSD
03-28-2006, 12:01 PM
Fenway grades at .886 for HR's
GABP grades at 1.263 for HR's

for a flyball pitcher that doesn't K anyone, those are huge numbers.

GABP kills triples and is lower than Fenway in doubles, but still gives up more hits. Overall GABP is the third best hitters park, Fenway is 13th.

You might also want to note that Arroyo faced exactly two teams (NYY, Toronto) throughout the season that finished in the top half of the AL in Runs Scored. A lot has been made of Arroyo pitching in a division with teams that score a lot of Runs. Problem with that reasoning is that Arroyo didn't have to face the best AL East offense because he was on the roster of the best AL East offensive club.

That being said, I think at some point we all need to holster our respective takes on this particular trade as all we're doing currently is re-typing the same positions we posted on the original trade thread.

westofyou
03-28-2006, 12:02 PM
That being said, I think at some point we all need to holster our respective takes on this particular trade as all we're doing currently is re-typing the same positions we posted on the original trade thread.

If we chase it a little longer it might turn into butter though.....mmm butter.

Well I'm going to breakfast with Pedro, we'll continue our side of the rant.

TRF
03-28-2006, 12:07 PM
woy, what's for breakfast? I'm about to head to lunch. spaghetti for me and the wife. I'll discuss baseball, and she'll nod and ask me when we are finishing the bathroom.

i wish pedro was my brother too. :)

TRF
03-28-2006, 12:09 PM
That being said, I think at some point we all need to holster our respective takes on this particular trade as all we're doing currently is re-typing the same positions we posted on the original trade thread.

I agree. Definitely two camps here. We'll see in October. I still think a WMP/Arroyo weekly update might help.

SteelSD
03-28-2006, 12:12 PM
If we chase it a little longer it might turn into butter though.....mmm butter.

Well I'm going to breakfast with Pedro, we'll continue our side of the rant.

Hah! Do you make him take notes? ;)

Falls City Beer
03-28-2006, 12:15 PM
You might also want to note that Arroyo faced exactly two teams (NYY, Toronto) throughout the season that finished in the top half of the AL in Runs Scored. .

Well, that's...creative.

Considering the Yankees scored the second most runs 886 and Blue Jays (5th in AL) at 775--and let's not kid ourselves, the D-Rays still scored 760. All that in hitters' parks in all three cities.

Brutal division, brutal league, no matter how cleverly you want to slice and dice it.

It got to Clement, and it got to Arroyo. It just gets to people. Because it's a brutal division. Period.

traderumor
03-28-2006, 12:21 PM
I agree. Definitely two camps here. We'll see in October. I still think a WMP/Arroyo weekly update might help.There's always at least two camps. This is America, land of the free, and home of the debaters.

RedsManRick
03-28-2006, 12:23 PM
well he did follow that 26 with 19 in 25 fewer AB's. so yeah i do.

Arroyo has 2 seasons above 170 ip. He pitched as a flyball pitcher last year. His game doesn't play well in GABP and he's had a pretty crappy spring.

On the other hand, Pena's game does play well in Fenway. His fielding might be an adventure in LF, but his offensive game fits that park a lot better than Arroyos fits in Cincinnati.

I have been critical of probably three moves in the last 5 years. Signing Randa, signing Aurilia and this trade. I hope i got 2 out of 3 right. I hope I am wrong. I just don't think I am.

Even as horrible as Milton was last year, he still managed 186.1 IP in 34 starts. Arroyo has averaged over 6 IP/GS the last two seasons. If you get 34 starts, you only need to average 5.88 to get 200 IP. You factor in that he won't be facing the DH and I think that balances out the increased HR factor. 200 IP will be a function of how many starts Arroyo gets, not how well he pitches (unless you honestly think he'll be a 6.00+ ERA Milton-esque disaster).

TRF
03-28-2006, 12:32 PM
Even as horrible as Milton was last year, he still managed 186.1 IP in 34 starts. Arroyo has averaged over 6 IP/GS the last two seasons. If you get 34 starts, you only need to average 5.88 to get 200 IP. You factor in that he won't be facing the DH and I think that balances out the increased HR factor. 200 IP will be a function of how many starts Arroyo gets, not how well he pitches (unless you honestly think he'll be a 6.00+ ERA Milton-esque disaster).

If you factor out the DH, you better factor in being substituted for a PH. And no, i don't think he'll be a 6.00+ era pitcher.

But I won't be surprised at anything over 5.00 either.

RedsManRick
03-28-2006, 12:45 PM
If you factor out the DH, you better factor in being substituted for a PH. And no, i don't think he'll be a 6.00+ era pitcher.

But I won't be surprised at anything over 5.00 either.

I considered that. But I don't think being lifted for a PH in the 5th or 6th inning should be a conern. If he's getting bombed early, he'd be out of the game in either league. I concede there might be an effect of getting pulled after the 6th or 7th instead of being allowed to take the mound for the next frame. Of course, that's likely to help as well as he's less likely to be out there when he's at his most tired and need a reliever to save to him mid-inning.

Interestingly, he's actually been quite effective after 90 pitches. Pitches 46-60 give him the most trouble, indicating that the 2nd time through the top of the order is where he struggles. This makes sense given his repitoire. If he's not on that day, batters will have gotten their timing, and his movement and location aren't making up the difference.

The point still remains, it's not hard to average 5.88 IP/GS (200 IP/ 34 GS). If he starts a full compliment of games, he'd have to be worse than Milton was last year to only get 175 IP. Now, if you want to argue he only gets 30 starts and hence the 175 IP, I'm willing to give you that possibility.

puca
03-28-2006, 01:04 PM
Going into 2005 Milton at 29 had a career ERA+ of 99.

Going into this season Arroyo at 29 has a career ERA+ of 100.

Arroyo certainly might pull a Milton. 200 innings at league average is not a guarantee.

pedro
03-28-2006, 01:08 PM
Hah! Do you make him take notes? ;)

note this.


I made him pay.

klw
03-28-2006, 01:15 PM
[QUOTE=westofyou]

Bronson Arroyo ain't no Milt Pappas... but WMP is certainly not Frank Robinson, nor will his departure cause the Reds to spiral into a tailspin to the cellar.

QUOTE]

Ah yes but would you be happy if, a la Mr. Pappas, for the next three years Bronson put up:



YEAR G GS CG SH IP H ER BB SO W L SV ERA
1 33 32 6 2 209.2 224 100 39 133 12 11 0 4.29
2 34 32 5 3 217.2 218 81 38 129 16 13 0 3.35
3 37 30 3 1 184.0 181 71 32 118 12 13 0 3.47