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Red Leader
03-28-2006, 09:11 AM
Here are the stats for my 10 team head to head league:

R, H, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS
IP, W, L, SV, R, HR, BB, K, ERA, K/9

I'm got stuck with the 10th spot, so I will pick 10th and 11th in the draft.

Who should I be eyeing with those first two picks.

I was going to go with 1 pitcher (someone like Carpenter or Peavy) and a hitter, and was thinking about Utley. Is taking Utley 11th too high. Not a lot of depth at 2B this year, and Utley, IMO, is the best option.

Other players I'd consider 11th: David Wright, Bobby Abreu, Jason Bay, Miguel Cabrera.

Or should I skip drafting a pitcher because there's a lot of depth this year and take two hitters, maybe Wright/Abreu/Bay/or Cabrera and Utley?

For those of you who have drafted 10th this year what was your strategy, and did it work.

I also thought about TRYING to start runs, like picking Peavy with pick 10, Utley with pick 11 (in hopes other managers reached for a SP or 2B) and then following that up with picking a RP like Rivera, Lidge, or Nathan in the 3rd round and a catcher in round 4 (to start runs at those positions). Is that a good idea?

Any help appreciated.

IowaRed
03-28-2006, 09:56 AM
I would go with 2 hitters but a case could be made for taking Peavy. Wright would be one of my picks and I would probably go with either Abreu or Bay. Based on your leagues categories, I would keep an eye on Helton and Hafner.

Red Leader
03-28-2006, 10:18 AM
I would go with 2 hitters but a case could be made for taking Peavy. Wright would be one of my picks and I would probably go with either Abreu or Bay. Based on your leagues categories, I would keep an eye on Helton and Hafner.

Travis Hafner is one of my favorite players. I target him every year. Problem this year is that he isn't 1B eligible. I can only use him at a UTIL spot, which isn't terrible, I'm hoping that I can grab him in the 5th round, but since I don't draft until the last pick of the 5th round, that might be asking too much.

I like the idea of taking Wright and Bay, but I'm worried that if I go that route, I'll be hurting at certain positons: 2B, SS, C, RP, and SP. If you did go with Bay and Wright, which positions would you target in rounds 3-4 (I know, it depends on who's been taken), *thinking out loud now*, but if I came back with a 3rd round pick of Harden and a 4th round pick of Rollins or Jeter, I'd have to take a RP and a 1B in rounds 5-6. No? And by the time my 7-8th round picks roll around, most of the good 2nd basemen are gone.

I just hate taking Wright so high since there's a lot of depth at 3B and I can wait to get another player, whereas if I pick Wright, I'd most likely lose out on the top players at other positions. I like David Wright a lot, he's a great player and one I'd love to have, I just think I'm strapping myself if I pick him.

What about taking Bay / Abreu and Utley? Can you tell I'm nervous about having a crappy 2nd baseman? Then if I came back with Harden and Jeter/Rollins in the 3-4th and a 1B / RP in the 5-6th, I'd be ok, I think.

IowaRed
03-28-2006, 10:55 AM
I tend to give less consideration to positional scarcity than most and try to go with the best available for the settings. That's why I would go with Wright and Bay, who are both likely to be available for the 10th and 11th pick. That's pretty high for Utley and there are a couple of 2B you can get later that should be pretty good i.e. Cano, Polanco

If you go with Bay/Wright, an SP and a SS would be reasonable unless somebody else had slipped through.

Johnny Footstool
03-28-2006, 11:03 AM
When I get stuck with two picks on the low end of the draft, I always take the best overall player available, then the best position-valued player available.

I picked 11th in a 12 team league this season, and I took Bay with my first pick and Utley with my second. The league required CFs, so Bay got some extra position-value. Utley usually goes late in the second round, so I knew that he wouldn't be there next time around. I didn't feel bad about taking him with the 14th pick. BTW - the guy who picked 10th took Peavy in the first round.

You just need to decide if you're better at sniffing out good starting pitching or finding a position-valued sleeper in the middle rounds. I usually do a good job with SP, so I filled my need at 2B early.

Red Leader
03-28-2006, 11:18 AM
When I get stuck with two picks on the low end of the draft, I always take the best overall player available, then the best position-valued player available.

I picked 11th in a 12 team league this season, and I took Bay with my first pick and Utley with my second. The league required CFs, so Bay got some extra position-value. Utley usually goes late in the second round, so I knew that he wouldn't be there next time around. I didn't feel bad about taking him with the 14th pick. BTW - the guy who picked 10th took Peavy in the first round.

You just need to decide if you're better at sniffing out good starting pitching or finding a position-valued sleeper in the middle rounds. I usually do a good job with SP, so I filled my need at 2B early.


Thanks, Johnny.

Yeah, see the problem this year is that I've never drafted any lower than 6th. Ever. That seems weird, but I've always had luck with draft positions (and this year our commish decided that the first name he pulled out of the hat would draft 1st, and the last name 10th. It's always been the reverse, 1st name picked picks 10th, last name picked picks 1st, so I SHOULD have had the 1st pick instead of the 10th). Anyway, I'm definately better at picking pitching than hitting.

The whole debate on Wright vs Utley in the 1st round. I'm figuring Wright will go .305/32/111/102/12. I'm figuring Utley at .290/31/116/108/19. Pretty close when it comes down to it. My thinking is that if Wright is a 1st round pick, than Utley might as well be since the numbers are so close, and he plays at a position that isn't as deep.

jmbraun773
03-28-2006, 11:26 AM
I would hold out on Wright, mainly because there is a lot of depth at the 3rd base position, including an Adrian Beltre that has seem to fall in the drafts I have completed already. I always like taking a pitcher in the first round, because that way you know you are getting a stud.

I wouldn't worry too much about 2nd base there are quite a few options there: Cantu, Cano, Felipe Lopez, Castillo, Vidro, etc... They don't give you huge numbers but they hit for average, steal bases, give you a few homeruns.

How I usually try to put a team together is run producers on the corners of the infield, speed in the middle infield, one speedy outfielder (i.e. Pierre) along with two long ball hitters in the outfield. If I can I try to steal a catcher with some pop late in the draft.

I will usually draft a starting pitcher with my first pick, third pick. Relief pitcher in the 4th or 5th round.

This is how my last draft turned out....my picks in order:

Johan Santana (SP)
Alfonso Soriano (2B)
Roy Halladay (SP)
Juan Pierre (OF)
Joe Nathan (RP)
Chipper Jones (3B)
Vernon Wells (OF)
Jim Edmonds (OF)
Javy Lopez (C)
F. Cordero (RP)
Tim Hudson (SP)
Jim Thome (1B)
Clint Barmes (SS)
Adrian Beltre (3B)
Jake Westbrook (SP)
Lyle Overbay (1B)
Ronnie Belliard (2B)
J. Jones (OF)
David Eckstein (SS)
Michael Barrett (C)
Tim Wakefield (SP)
David Dellucci (OF)

Red Leader
03-28-2006, 12:39 PM
Alright. Although nothing is set in stone, because anything and everything could happen during the draft, I'm going to go into the draft hoping to get:

Bay in the first (OF)
Wright with the 2nd pick (3B)
Peavy, Carpenter, or Oswalt in the 3rd (SP)
and V. Martinez in the 4th (C)
I'll then come back with a RP, and a 1B in the 5th and 6th.

How's that sound? I'm pretty convinced on the 1st four picks that that's the way to go. I'm hoping V. Martinez lasts until my pick at the end of rd 3.

HotCorner
03-28-2006, 12:48 PM
Alright. Although nothing is set in stone, because anything and everything could happen during the draft, I'm going to go into the draft hoping to get:

Bay in the first (OF)
Wright with the 2nd pick (3B)
Peavy, Carpenter, or Oswalt in the 3rd (SP)
and V. Martinez in the 4th (C)
I'll then come back with a RP, and a 1B in the 5th and 6th.

How's that sound? I'm pretty convinced on the 1st four picks that that's the way to go. I'm hoping V. Martinez lasts until my pick at the end of rd 3.

Nice strategy. Personally I value Martinez more due to the lack of depth at the catching position compared to OF or infielders.

Johnny Footstool
03-28-2006, 12:57 PM
I wouldn't worry too much about 2nd base there are quite a few options there: Cantu, Cano, Felipe Lopez, Castillo, Vidro, etc... They don't give you huge numbers but they hit for average, steal bases, give you a few homeruns.

That's the thing about Utley -- he will give you great numbers across the board whereas most other 2B's have big holes in their games. He's in the neighborhood .300/30/100 with 75 walks, 100 runs and a dozen steals. He'll be a very good contributor to every category in Red Leader's league. So will David Wright, but 3B is quite a bit deeper.

Felipe Lopez is probably the second-best option if you don't go after Utley. After that, you might as well wait until the end of the draft and get Ronnie Belliard.

jmbraun773
03-28-2006, 01:00 PM
Bay in the first (OF)
Wright with the 2nd pick (3B)
Peavy, Carpenter, or Oswalt in the 3rd (SP)
and V. Martinez in the 4th (C)
I'll then come back with a RP, and a 1B in the 5th and 6th.


Looks to be a pretty good strategy. I would think you would be able to get V. Martinez in the 4th.

Red Leader
03-28-2006, 01:14 PM
That's the thing about Utley -- he will give you great numbers across the board whereas most other 2B's have big holes in their games. He's in the neighborhood .300/30/100 with 75 walks, 100 runs and a dozen steals. He'll be a very good contributor to every category in Red Leader's league. So will David Wright, but 3B is quite a bit deeper.

Felipe Lopez is probably the second-best option if you don't go after Utley. After that, you might as well wait until the end of the draft and get Ronnie Belliard.

Dang it, Johnny. Now you got me thinking about taking Utley with the 1st pick in the 2nd round, and waiting to draft a 3B later in the draft since the postion is deeper. It makes sense to me. Their numbers are nearly identical last year, and both of their numbers should improve, although I'd imagine Utley's numbers go up more since he really wasn't a full time player until maybe late April last year.

1st rd (10) Bay
2nd rd (11) Utley
3rd rd (30) Peavy, Carpenter, or Oswalt
4th rd (31) V. Martinez, or 1B if Martinez is gone
5th rd (50) RP or 1B, or 3B
6th rd (51) RP or 1B, or 3B

:dunno:

HotCorner
03-28-2006, 01:25 PM
Player A

AVG .286 | HR 28 | RBI 117 | OBP .311 | SLG .497

vs.

Player B

AVG .291 | HR 28 | RBI 105 | OBP .376 | SLG .540

Both play the same position. Who would you select?

Red Leader
03-28-2006, 01:29 PM
With Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus likely falling because of health concerns, Adrian Beltre, Melvin Mora, Hank Blalock, and to some extent Eric Chavez falling because of bad years last year, A-Rod going early (thus either team 1 or 2 won't need another 3B), and Miguel Cabrera and Chipper Jones picking up eligibility at the position, 3B is definately deeper than 2B. Not to mention Wright could be taken before I pick #10.

The wrench to this whole thing could be if a top 5 player like Santana, Teixeira, Ortiz, or Derrek Lee fall to the 10th spot. Then, I'm going to have to re-evaluate everything on the fly.

Red Leader
03-28-2006, 01:30 PM
Player A

AVG .286 | HR 28 | RBI 117 | OBP .311 | SLG .497

vs.

Player B

AVG .291 | HR 28 | RBI 105 | OBP .376 | SLG .540

Both play the same position. Who would you select?

Doesn't seem like player A has as good of OBP skills and has a lower SLG%, although I'd have to look at his past and how old he is to see if that's what history says he is or if he is still adjusting. But without any knowledge of either of them, or their past, Player B.

IowaRed
03-28-2006, 01:53 PM
Player A

AVG .286 | HR 28 | RBI 117 | OBP .311 | SLG .497

vs.

Player B

AVG .291 | HR 28 | RBI 105 | OBP .376 | SLG .540

Both play the same position. Who would you select?

A would be Cantu and B would be Utley. I'm guessing the point is that you can get Cantu a few rounds later with 2B & 3B eligibility and some similar numbers? Utley will also have more SB's

Red Leader
03-28-2006, 02:01 PM
A would be Cantu and B would be Utley. I'm guessing the point is that you can get Cantu a few rounds later with 2B & 3B eligibility and some similar numbers? Utley will also have more SB's

Yeah, don't forget Cantu scored 20 less runs than Utley, had 15 less stolen bases (16-1) and 19 BB's compared to Utley's 69 (which is a stat in our league).

I see what you're saying about being able to wait and get Cantu, but I think Utley's numbers are going to be crazy this year. I already posted my prediction for him at .290 AVG. 31 HR 116 RBI 108 runs and 19 SB's, and I think that might be pretty close if not a little low. I think he'll run more this year because Abreu will run less, if that makes sense. I also think he'll improve on his 69 BB's, and I have some doubt that Cantu will be able to improve or repeat last year's numbers

IowaRed
03-28-2006, 02:15 PM
I agree with your assessment, I was trying to determine the purpose in posting those guys stats? I think Wright's power potential vs. Utley's power potential make him the choice but it won't make or break your season, Utley certainly isn't a bad choice. As you mentioned before, somebody may make a crazy pick early and somebody like Ortiz, Manny, or Santana might fall to you

HotCorner
03-28-2006, 02:22 PM
Yeah, don't forget Cantu scored 20 less runs than Utley, had 15 less stolen bases (16-1) and 19 BB's compared to Utley's 69 (which is a stat in our league).

I see what you're saying about being able to wait and get Cantu, but I think Utley's numbers are going to be crazy this year. I already posted my prediction for him at .290 AVG. 31 HR 116 RBI 108 runs and 19 SB's, and I think that might be pretty close if not a little low. I think he'll run more this year because Abreu will run less, if that makes sense. I also think he'll improve on his 69 BB's, and I have some doubt that Cantu will be able to improve or repeat last year's numbers

I won't disagree with your assessment of Utley. I believe he is worth a late first round pick. I wanted to point out that there are other comparable players at that position.

Johnny Footstool
03-28-2006, 03:00 PM
Player A

AVG .286 | HR 28 | RBI 117 | OBP .311 | SLG .497

vs.

Player B

AVG .291 | HR 28 | RBI 105 | OBP .376 | SLG .540

Both play the same position. Who would you select?


Somewhat similar stats here, but if you look at the scoring categories in this league, which include BB and SB, Utley has a clear advantage.

You could also snag Cantu to play 3B instead of Wright, if you wanted to.

As for Utley vs. Wright, I don't think you can go wrong either way, but my personal preference is Utley.

Red Leader
03-29-2006, 10:06 PM
Uggh. Terrible draft. My wife called from Atlanta and it caused me to make several mistakes during the draft and made keeping up with who was picked a chore. My "plan" was working until the 5th round or so.

Here's what I ended up with.

Stats are: R, H, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS for hitters and IP, W, L, SV, R, HR, BB, K, ERA, K/9 for pitchers

We play: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, BN, BN, DL, DL

1. (10) J. Bay (OF)- wanted HR, RBI, R, SB, AVG, OPS with my first pick. He fit.
2. (11) C. Utley (2B, 1B) wanted good numbers at a premium position. He fit.
3. (30) R. Harden (SP) Last pitcher I had ranked before a big drop off.
4. (31) V. Martínez (C) see Utley.
5. (50) R. Furcal (SS) - mistake, meant to take Jeter, and clicked the wrong guy-I blame my wife.
6. (51) R. Sexson (1B)- one of the last 1B left on the board at this point.
7. (70) B. Ryan (RP) - last "stud" closer left on my rankings.
8. (71) B. Myers (SP) - still there, needed another good SP since I didn't end up with a top 5 guy.
9. (90) J. Patterson (SP) - same with Myers. Think he'll produce in K, ERA, and K/9.
10. (91) C. Crisp (OF) - Wanted to start grabbing OFers and I think he's going to score 120 R's and produce in serveral cats.
11. (110) M. Holliday (OF)- Another guy that should contribute in several cats.
12. (111) M. Mora (3B) - Best 3B avail. Should have drafted Rolen in rd 10 or 11, but at that point there were 4 3B below him. Gambled since OF were going fast.
13. (130) T. Gordon (RP) - Had him ranked pretty high. Highest ranked closer left on my board.
14. (131) E. Bedard (SP) - I think Leo Mazzone will do wonders for him. Was dominant in 1st half last yr before injury.
15. (150) J. Bonderman (SP)- a guy I like a lot. Maybe too much.
16. (151) B. Wilkerson (OF, 1B)- should contribute across the board in that park.
17. (170) D. Bush (SP) - another mistake, I meant to draft Ray here, and then pickup J.D. Drew who was sitting out there
18. (171) C. Ray- had to pick a 3rd closer here because they were going fast, most teams have 3, some 4. Drew went the pick after this
19. (190) M. González - took him just because he was available. No good offensive players left on the board, except Granderson
20. (191) J. Guillén -was going to take Granderson, but figured I needed more pop. Don't like him, or this pick.


I'm going to drop David Bush. I think he'll have a good year, but there are starters like Kelvim Escobar (big in K/9), Wakefield, Chris Young and Loiaza out there, who are better across the board.

I'd like to improve my offense somehow. I don't like Guillen very much. He'll produce in HR somewhat but not as much in RBI, R, BB, OBP.

I usually draft straight power guys who get on base and don't run very much (Dunn, Hafner type guys). I usually struggle in the SB category every year. I think I have a more balanced team, but it's weird to me because I'm used to have big HR/RBI guys and no SB. That's why I drafted Guillen with the last pick. He was the only guy out there that hit for good power. It was either him or Preston Wilson. I still might drop Guillen for Wilson. No other power guys are out there.

What do you guys think of this team?

Red Leader
03-29-2006, 10:08 PM
Pos Batters Edit Opp Status H/AB R H HR RBI SB BB AVG OBP SLG OPS
C V. Martínez
(Cle - C) 167/547 73 167 20 80 0 63 .305 .378 .475 .853
1B R. Sexson
(Sea - 1B) 147/558 99 147 39 121 1 89 .263 .369 .541 .91
2B C. Utley
(Phi - 1B,2B) 158/543 93 158 28 105 16 69 .291 .376 .540 .916
3B M. Mora
(Bal - 3B) 168/593 86 168 27 88 7 50 .283 .348 .474 .822
SS R. Furcal
(LAD - SS) 175/616 100 175 12 58 46 62 .284 .348 .429 .777
OF J. Bay
(Pit - OF) 183/599 110 183 32 101 21 95 .306 .402 .559 .961
OF C. Crisp
(Bos - OF) 178/594 86 178 16 69 15 44 .300 .345 .465 .81
OF M. Holliday
(Col - OF) 147/479 68 147 19 87 14 36 .307 .361 .505 .866
Util B. Wilkerson
(Tex - 1B,OF) 140/565 76 140 11 57 8 84 .248 .351 .405 .756
Util J. Guillén
(Was - OF) 156/551 81 156 24 76 1 31 .283 .338 .479 .817
Pitching

Pos Pitchers Edit Opp Status IP W L SV R HR BB K ERA K/9
SP R. Harden
(Oak - SP) 128.0 10 5 0 42 7 43 121 2.53 8.51
SP B. Myers
(Phi - SP) 215.1 13 8 0 94 31 68 208 3.72 8.69
SP J. Patterson
(Was - SP) 198.1 9 7 0 71 19 65 185 3.13 8.39
SP E. Bedard
(Bal - SP) 141.2 6 8 0 66 10 57 125 4.00 7.94
RP B. Ryan
(Tor - RP) 70.1 1 4 36 20 4 26 100 2.43 12.80
RP T. Gordon
(Phi - RP) 80.2 5 4 2 25 8 29 69 2.57 7.70
P J. Bonderman
(Det - SP) 189.0 14 13 0 101 21 57 145 4.57 6.90
P C. Ray
(Bal - RP) 40.2 1 3 0 15 5 18 43 2.66 9.52
BN D. Bush
(Mil - SP) 136.1 5 11 0 73 20 29 75 4.49 4.95
BN M. González
(Pit - RP) 50.0 1 3 3 15 2 31 58 2.70 10.44

Dom Heffner
03-29-2006, 11:33 PM
I could be wrong here, but if you get power guys, they should dominate in pretty much every field except stolen bases. Why put little Ryan Freels on your team when they don't help you win anything except stolen bases? A homerun gets you a hit, a run, an rbi, and a hr as well as pumping up your slugging pct. and OPS if your league counts them. As well, lots of power guys walk, so they don't hurt there either.

I just don't see the logic in worrying about stolen bases. Unless you get Scott Podsednik and other scrappy guys, you can't win that category anyway.

Red Leader
03-30-2006, 01:09 AM
I could be wrong here, but if you get power guys, they should dominate in pretty much every field except stolen bases. Why put little Ryan Freels on your team when they don't help you win anything except stolen bases? A homerun gets you a hit, a run, an rbi, and a hr as well as pumping up your slugging pct. and OPS if your league counts them. As well, lots of power guys walk, so they don't hurt there either.

I just don't see the logic in worrying about stolen bases. Unless you get Scott Podsednik and other scrappy guys, you can't win that category anyway.


You're right. I really didn't target scrappy guys like Tony Womack, Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik, etc as much as I tried to make it a point to get power hitters that would contribute SB's (Bay, Utley in particular). Drafting Furcal was a mistake. I was going to take Jeter, and then hesitated because I wanted to wait a little bit longer and take Felipe or Peralta, but I was short on time and the computer auto selected Furcal right as I was about to make my pick, which was originally going to be Jeter, but then I noticed H.Matsui was still there and I wanted to get him, as I wanted another good OF to backup Bay. I don't think it totally ruined my season, but it did change the outcome of my draft. My team would have looked a lot different (and better, IMO) if I had drafted H. Matsui instead of Furcal and then drafted F.Lopez or J. Peralta instead of C. Crisp (they both fell that far) I felt like I was playing catchup on positions. This is the first time I had drafted 10th, and I didn't like the back to back picks and then waiting 20 picks before my next turn. Not easy to do. Made the same mistake on Bush. He was in my queue as someone to target in the last round, if a bunch of starters came off the board. I wanted to draft Chris Ray with that pick, and then use the following pick on J.D. Drew, realizing that he fell too far. I clicked on the draft button and I must have hit the down arrow on my keyboard because it picked the player (Bush) right under Ray in my queue. Since I drafted Ray, I felt I needed to get a 3rd closer, thus I had to take Ray with the pick after Bush tp get my closer and let Drew stay out there. Drew went the pick after Ray.

Red Leader
03-30-2006, 09:03 AM
Nevermind this post.

Red Leader
03-30-2006, 10:12 AM
If you had to pick a SP out of: Wakefield, Kelvim Escobar, Chris Young, Loiaza, Daniel Cabrera, or Oliver Perez, wihich one would you pick? W, L, R, HR, BB, K, ERA, K/9 are the categories. I'm torn. I could really use some wins on my team (Wakefield) but I'm still enamored with the K pitchers (Cabrera, Perez, and possibly Escobar).

Johnny Footstool
03-30-2006, 10:33 AM
Your team looks pretty solid. You can *always* find outfielders with pop on the waiver wire. Always.

As for the pitchers, Escobar was unbelievable last season after returning from the DL. He'll K nearly a batter per inning with few walks, and the Angels should win quite a few games for him.

Oliver Perez would be another good roll of the dice, although I don't think his win total will be that high.

Red Leader
03-30-2006, 10:51 AM
So, offensively you think my team can compete as is right now, Johnny. No major deficiencies? I'm thinking about asking around to see who's interested in Coco Crisp and see what I can get for him in return. I think he'll run less in Boston (hello, Johnny Damon). On the other hand, he could hit for more power in that park, though, so I'm unsure what to expect from him. Would it be wise for me to try and target more power in a trade for him? Who would you try and get for him to make my offense better?

I like Escobar, but he is *always* coming down with some injury, that scares me somewhat. I could always pick him up and then drop him and replace him if he does get injured, and he should provide wins, which I need. I'm just hoping I don't pass on Perez and he ends up being a top 15 pitcher like he was 2 years ago.