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WVRed
03-30-2006, 03:30 PM
Apologies if already posted.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/features/26782.html


The Reds are getting what they paid for. They went cheap in the draft for several years, resulting in their failure to sign first-rounder Jeremy Sowers in 2000 and taking Chris Gruler over Scott Kazmir with the third overall pick in 2001. Cincinnati appeared to score with pitchers Ryan Wagner, Thomas Pauly and Richie Gardner in the 2003 draft, but all three suffered serious injuries last year. Righthander Homer Bailey and outfielder Jay Bruce have huge celings, but they're a few years away. The Reds have little depth behind them, and almost none at the upper levels. A new ownership group led by Robert Castellini may have to invest heavily in player development to turn the team around. Castellini already has overhauled the front office, hiring Wayne Krivsky as GM and Chris Buckley as senior director of scouting, and promoting Johnny Almaraz to farm director.

M2
03-30-2006, 04:29 PM
Hey, they dropped a spot since the first release of the list earlier in the month.

Heath
03-30-2006, 04:44 PM
Your 2000 and 2001 last-place finishers were the Brewers. They got the #1 in 2004 and are still at the top.

So, 3-5 years if WayneK and JohnnyA do their jobs and Bob Castellini does his and we are right there.

Should be a fun, yet interesting ride.

Aronchis
03-30-2006, 04:46 PM
eh, who cares.

lollipopcurve
03-30-2006, 04:53 PM
Your 2000 and 2001 last-place finishers were the Brewers.

Maybe they don't like Dean Taylor.

I gotta feeling there are politics involved.

You see that they sharply discount Bailey and Bruce for being young prospects (even though they have "huge ceilings"). My guess is that the rationale for other systems being highly rated will be at least partly based on similarly aged, huge ceilinged prospects. I put little stock in their organizational rankings -- I think they use them to reward folks with whom they have a good relationship.

M2
03-30-2006, 05:00 PM
Like all BA rankings, it's a market value measurement.

The downside of ranking #30 in the BA list is that the market doesn't perceive your system as having much to offer. It ties Wayne Krivsky's hands a bit as he attempts to remake the club.

And the sad thing about the ranking is that so many of us saw this coming when DanO refused to embrace a rebuilding project. All he succeeded in doing is making the job harder for the next guy.

WVRed
03-30-2006, 05:02 PM
Maybe they don't like Dean Taylor.

I gotta feeling there are politics involved.

You see that they sharply discount Bailey and Bruce for being young prospects (even though they have "huge ceilings"). My guess is that the rationale for other systems being highly rated will be at least partly based on similarly aged, huge ceilinged prospects. I put little stock in their organizational rankings -- I think they use them to reward folks with whom they have a good relationship.

I have a better idea, they ranked us that low because we flat out suck.:)

Its true.

I seriously cannot think of a team on that list who should be ranked below us. San Diego has Cesar Carillo, and New York has Lastings Milledge and Mike Pelfrey. I don't think Baseball Prospectus or any other service will be any more friendly.

IslandRed
03-30-2006, 05:04 PM
You see that they sharply discount Bailey and Bruce for being young prospects (even though they have "huge ceilings"). My guess is that the rationale for other systems being highly rated will be at least partly based on similarly aged, huge ceilinged prospects.

I don't think they're dismissing Bailey and Bruce; BA has historically been the champion for high-upside kids drafted out of high school. They're dismissing the Reds' system for having so few of them. That, and having all but nothing in the pipeline that's close to helping the big club.

KronoRed
03-30-2006, 05:24 PM
Good to be the king.

Sea Ray
03-30-2006, 05:25 PM
Like all BA rankings, it's a market value measurement.

The downside of ranking #30 in the BA list is that the market doesn't perceive your system as having much to offer. It ties Wayne Krivsky's hands a bit as he attempts to remake the club.

And the sad thing about the ranking is that so many of us saw this coming when DanO refused to embrace a rebuilding project. All he succeeded in doing is making the job harder for the next guy.

This does not reflect well on O'Brien. His mantra all along was "it's a long rebuilding process and we're starting with the farm system..." His excuse for not winning at the major league level was that he was building the farm system. Well he made numerous trades to stock the farm system (Nelson, Bong etc) yet the farm teams put up horrible records and now they're ranked last by BA. O'Brien was a disaster as GM

RedsManRick
03-30-2006, 05:34 PM
Forget pitching -- name the last 5 players to come up through the Reds sytem and put together careers as major league regulars (ie. ML starter, primary bench guy, or pitcher that isn't a non-roster invite). If there are 600 such players at any given time, and the average career is 12 years long, that's 50 new players of that quality per yer -- or just under 2 per team.

1. Adam Dunn
2. Aaron Boone
3. Jason LaRue
4. Pokey Reese
5. Reggie Sanders
6. Dan Wilson

I think you get the idea. I know I'm missing some guys, but the system has been weak for 15 years and not only weak but "unlucky" the last 6 or 7.

Eric_Davis
03-30-2006, 05:42 PM
The issue isn't whether you're dead last, next to last or fifth from last.

Apparently, the players DanO got during his first two years, including the foreigners that weren't among the drafted players, haven't developed into prospects worthy of raising us out of the bottom third of the league.

I wouldn't mind starting over if we had actually won a championship like the Twins, Marlins, or D-backs, but we basically sucked for the last 10 years, and still have nothing to show for it.

Hey Bengals fans! Does any of this sound familiar?

At least we got rid of the one constant during all this....Carl Lindner.

Good Riddance Carl Lindner! Hope the door didn't hit you too hard in the behind on your way out.

redsrule2500
03-30-2006, 10:39 PM
Aww, they used to have a good farm team. I'm sure it changes over the years.

BoydsOfSummer
03-31-2006, 12:57 AM
Nowhere to go but up!

TC81190
03-31-2006, 01:16 AM
Nowhere to go but up!

If you're gonna make it in these parts, you'll change your tune.

Chip R
03-31-2006, 09:24 AM
Nowhere to go but up!

Unless they expand.

traderumor
03-31-2006, 09:33 AM
A GM worth having will look at that ranking as an opportunity to put his stamp all over the organization. I would imagine a lot of weeding will be done in the minors this year, which has already started somewhat in the spring. But I can tell you, I don't know enough of the other systems to compare ours, but all the losing records and so few exciting prospects makes me think that ranking is not a stretch at all. The only thing to get a little bit excited about are some of last year's draftees, like Bruce, Wood, Woody, LeCure, Stevens, Rosales, et al, showed some promise in their first go around.

lollipopcurve
03-31-2006, 10:46 AM
OK, not to beat a dead horse, but check out this write-up for the #15-ranked organization, the darling of BA's Jim Callis, those darn Cubbies:


Pitching injuries to prospects such as Chadd Blasko, Angel Guzman, Luke Hagerty and Billy Petrick have robbed the system of its strength, and first baseman Brian Dopirak severely regressed in 2005. After Corey Patterson went from poster boy to failure, Chicago may have overpaid when it gave up three pitching prospects to get Juan Pierre from the Marlins in December. There's still some solid talent, starting with outfielder Felix Pie and lefthander Mark Pawelek, but the Cubs have few sure things and a lot of questions to answer in both the major and minor leagues.

Somehow Pie, Pawelek plus unnamed "solid talent" vaults the Cubbies into the upper half of all organizations, while Bruce, Wood, Bailey and "lack of depth" relegates the Reds to the sub-basement. Once you look at this stuff with a certain measure of objectivity, you see how vacuous it is.

IslandRed
03-31-2006, 11:02 AM
There's a simple acid test to all this, and that's "ours or theirs?" Take a solid look at the other 29 farm systems -- a little more in-depth than the BA summary paragraphs -- and decide if we'd trade ours for theirs if we could.

To rank the Reds last means there's no farm system we wouldn't trade for, and I'm not so sure about that... but there aren't many I wouldn't rather have.

cReds1
03-31-2006, 11:20 AM
This does not reflect well on O'Brien. His mantra all along was "it's a long rebuilding process and we're starting with the farm system..." His excuse for not winning at the major league level was that he was building the farm system. Well he made numerous trades to stock the farm system (Nelson, Bong etc) yet the farm teams put up horrible records and now they're ranked last by BA. O'Brien was a disaster as GM

Excellent Post! I was thinking the same thing. I remember him sqwaking about that when he was hired. How could nobody not notice he was screwing up?

BuckeyeRedleg
03-31-2006, 12:03 PM
Good Riddance Carl Lindner! Hope the door didn't hit you too hard in the behind on your way out.

I hope it hit him hard enough to leave a red mark right here - :mooner:

So now that we have finally hit rock :mooner: , anything Krivsky does will make himself look like a genius, right?

Seriously though, if EE was still in AAA, we'd have at least moved up a couple spots to 27th or 28th.

So, we got that going for us.

traderumor
03-31-2006, 12:12 PM
Excellent Post! I was thinking the same thing. I remember him sqwaking about that when he was hired. How could nobody not notice he was screwing up?Someone did. Castellini took all of a weekend after taking the reins to send him packing.

Eric_Davis
03-31-2006, 02:58 PM
I don't have access to BA. Can someone post on this post the rankings first to last?

Caveat Emperor
03-31-2006, 11:22 PM
This does not reflect well on O'Brien. His mantra all along was "it's a long rebuilding process and we're starting with the farm system..." His excuse for not winning at the major league level was that he was building the farm system. Well he made numerous trades to stock the farm system (Nelson, Bong etc) yet the farm teams put up horrible records and now they're ranked last by BA. O'Brien was a disaster as GM

Part of the reason for this is for the simple reason that he adamantly refused to pull the trigger on the "blockbuster" deal. All of the trades that O'Brien made to "restock" the farm system fell firmly into the category of "Garbage in, Garbage out." When you're trading guys like Todd Jones, Corey Lidle and Joe Randa on 1 year deals the return isn't going to be much.

Where O'Brien went wrong was not fully commiting to the plan and getting maximum return out of tradeable commodities when they were at the height of their value. Guys like Danny Graves, Sean Casey and (to a certain extent) D'Angelo Jimenez were all successful with the Reds at some point, all had inflated value, and all returned nothing or next to nothing as a result of that.

But, all this has been debated into the ground before. The result of all this is that the Reds are going to be hamstrung for at least another 2 or 3 years as they wait for replacement players to perculate through the system. In the meantime, Krivsky is doing a good job by taking chances on minor leaguers in the waiver wire to try and infuse any sort of talent into the system. Even still, it's going to be a long climb out of the cellar.

WVRed
04-01-2006, 04:44 PM
I don't have access to BA. Can someone post on this post the rankings first to last?

I probably shouldnt, but here you go.


1. Arizona Diamondbacks 13 13 21 23 29
Signing Justin Upton is the icing on the cake for minor's most loaded system.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers 2 2 14 25 28

Even without top 2005 draft pick Luke Hochevar, the Dodgers have depth and star power.
3. Florida Marlins 14 14 8 10 9
Postseason fire sale brought depth, top-tier talent to a system that already had some of both.
4. Los Angeles Angels 1 3 5 17 25
Elite infielders head impressive group of hitters; pitching hinges on ‘04 picks Weaver, Adenhart.
5. Milwaukee Brewers 3 1 16 26 30
Despite graduating young talent to Milwaukee, Brewers still have plenty left on the farm.
6. Minnesota Twins 4 5 4 6 15
Healthy return by Jason Kubel would provide boost to organization loaded with young pitching.
7. Atlanta Braves 5 4 2 7 5
Lowest ranking in years for Braves only comes after graduating 19 rookies to big league club.
8. Boston Red Sox 21 23 27 28 24
Improved pitching depth leads to quantum leap forward.
9. Cleveland Indians 7 6 1 20 26
Depth is the Tribe’s biggest strength, and Marte acquisition boosted team into top 10.
10. Tampa Bay Devil Rays 9 9 10 15 6
Former scouting director Tim Wilken left behind much-improved pitching depth.
11. Colorado Rockies 6 15 25 24 16
Fruits of three consecutive productive drafts starting to percolate up through the system.
12. Baltimore Orioles 25 19 30 29 27
A farm system on the way up could improve even more if Adam Loewen fulfills his potential.
13. Detroit Tigers 29 22 12 18 18
Biggest mover on the list thanks to pair of elite power arms, Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya.
14. Chicago White Sox 12 20 15 9 1
Championship closer Bobby Jenks heads list with outfield depth to spare.
15. Chicago Cubs 10 7 3 1 2
Felix Pie takes up mantle as top prospect in a rapidly thinning organization.
16. Texas Rangers 16 16 19 8 13
Trio of Double-A pitchers, improved depth give new GM Jon Daniels pieces to deal.
17. New York Yankees 24 27 17 5 7
Premium talent on hand, but Yankees’ top prospects have yet to venture beyond A-ball.
18. San Francisco Giants 17 24 11 12 22
Bulk of top hitters reach make-or-break Double-A in ’06; Matt Cain gives team elite arm.
19. Pittsburgh Pirates 18 11 18 22 19
Last two first-round picks, Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen, provide best hope for impact.
20. Houston Astros 22 29 23 3 10
Farmhands helped big league team to first pennant, yet minor league talent still improved.
21. St. Louis Cardinals 30 28 28 30 23
Early returns on their bountiful 2005 draft boost stock of previously moribund system.
22. Philadelphia Phillies 20 21 7 11 12
Jim Thome trade nets pair of lefties who can step in if top prospect Cole Hamels gets hurt again.
23. Kansas City Royals 28 19 26 21 14
No. 2 overall pick Alex Gordon, Billy Butler provide 1-2 punch for club in need of hope.
24. Washington Nationals 26 30 29 16 21
Scouting director Dana Brown has done well in tough circumstances to accumulate talent.
25. Toronto Blue Jays 15 8 6 13 17
System has some depth, particularly on the mound, but few players project as regulars.
26. Oakland Athletics 8 17 22 19 11
Talent inevitably eroded after A’s graduated four impact rookies to big leagues in 2005.
27. Seattle Mariners 11 12 9 2 4
Utter lack of pitching prospects has roots in run of poor drafts in late 1990s, early 2000s.
28. New York Mets 19 10 13 27 20
It’s Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey and a lot of players who wouldn’t make other teams’ top 10s.
29. San Diego Padres 27 25 20 4 8
At least the best the Padres have to offer are close to helping the big league club . . .
30. Cincinnati Reds 23 26 24 14 3
While nearly all the Reds’ best hopes for the future are in A-ball or below.