Gonelong's 5th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

[gilpdawg]

Forgive me if there's an official thread about it, but I didn't see one on Reds Live.
How many games will the Reds win this year?
I'm gonna start it off by saying 78, with an optimistic eye towards 2007. Flirting with .500 and above until July, then tailing off.

Edit-I guess I'll make a range now, to make it official, so 75-80 wins.
I didn't know I had to wait for gonelong to legitimize a prediction thread. :)

[Joseph]

I don't think there is an official prediction thread as yet. Congrats for starting one.

My prediction....86 games.

Yes I'm nuts, but it just feels like a year with no expectations and it will yield some positive results.

[Red in Chicago]

i'll go for 76, but i think that may be pushing it:(

[RedsManRick]

71 -- I hope I'm wrong...:pray:

[Scrap Irony]

23 wins.

(Think of it this way. It's historic. They'd get the first pick in the draft, assuming the Royals are just a game better. Plus, if they're better than that, I walk away a happy man.)

It's a win/ win situation.
Wait a minute...

[redsfan30]

I believe they will get close to .500 but not quite there.

80-82.

[Cyclone792]

Why not, I think we can cling on to some good luck this season ...

75-87

If the team was properly managed and the was fortunate in the injury column (I know, I know ... two massive IFs), I could see them finishing over .500 and even possibly making it exciting for us if the NL Central has a down year. But Narron will ensure that mismanagement is the only consistent managing he will do this season.

I'd love for nothing more than to see this club surprise the heck out of everyone, especially me, but I just don't think it's realistic at this point.

[biggestREDSfan]

With the players that the Reds have now. I will be optimistic and say they will have 85 wins. Go Reds!!! :dancingco :dancingco :dancingco

[Reds Fanatic]

79-83

[guttle11]

81

[Caseyfan21]

101 wins for sure...

Nah, a little high without a great offense to back up our pitching. ;)


I'll realistically say 74 wins.

That being said if the pitching comes together nicely (need Milton, Harang, Claussen, and Arroyo to all give us a shot day in and day out which is asking a lot) and Krivsky could possibly swing a deadline deal or two, I could see the Reds winning 87-88 games.

[MWM]

74-88. Same recorded I predicted last year.

[KronoRed]

70-92

[shredda2000]

83-79

[dougdirt]

75 wins without any more trades happening....:cry:

[pedro]

77-85

[kyred14]

I'm feeling optimistic myself............

73-89

[red-in-la]

I'm gonna say 68-94....not because of the pitching, but because I think this group will set a franchise record for errors in a season.

Also, the offense now seemingly depends almost completely on JR......and that is trouble.

Hold on tight Reds fans....this is going to be a doosie!

[cumberlandreds]

78-84 but am hoping for a 100 wins.:) IF Harang,Arroyo and Milton can give us 200 innings each and Claussen 160 it may be better than we all think. But that is a mighty big IF.

[RedsBaron]

I predict that the Reds will play 162 games.
Oh, I'm supposed to predict how they will do in those 162 games.......
82-80. I hate predicting them to have a losing season.

[MrCinatit]

76-86
Narron will be fired near or at the end of the season.
i also believe the team will be minus a couple veteran infielders, and at least one from the starting rotation - hopefully via trade.

[Raisor]

74-88

All the trades/signings have been run differential neutral.

[VI_RedsFan]

78-84

[OnBaseMachine]

80-82

[Jpup]

69 is what I said a couple months ago and I think that Arroyo could be worth a couple more. I'll go with 71 wins. Jerry Narron will be out of town sometime in August.

[jmbraun773]

83-79

Narron is out about midseason
Our starting rotation does well and surprises a lot of people

[mound_patrol]

I'm a trends guy. If the Reds win the first one I'll say 162. Can't win em all without winning the first one.

More realistically I'll say 79-81

[NC Reds]

80-82. It would have been better, but I can see us giving away several games in April and May by playing bad lineups weighed down with slow, aging vets (Hatteburg and Aurillia say "hello").

[Red Leader]

75-87.

I'm thinking the Reds pull their usual, remain in contention at the All-Star break, but I'm hoping some of the veterans are removed from the roster in late July and the youngsters take over in August/September to gain experience and give Wayne a chance to evaluate. With development comes losing. I'm thinking they'll be under .500 in the second half.

[Puffy]

72-90.

Any team with Dave Williams, Tony Womack, Rich Aurilia and Scott Hatteburg on it cannot be a good thing.

[Highlifeman21]

72 - 90

Harang with 14 wins

Claussen with 12 wins

Arroyo with 15 wins

which, by the easy math means the other 2 starters and the bullpen will only rack up another 31 wins, due largely thanks to a mediocre bullpen at best and milton/williams/wilson at the back of the rotation...

[Falls City Beer]

81-81

But I think the roster's going to look a whole lot different by season's end.

[REDREAD]

I think Arroyo helps a lot, but there's a lot of holes still.. I'll say 75 wins.

[Chip R]

I predict they will win at least 1 game. :D

Seriously, I have the number 72 in my head and I doin't think it's losses.

[deltachi8]

72-90. Ugh.

[PickOff]

As much as I think Milton, Claussen, and Williams will improve upon last year, when you come right down to it, this team still only has one good starter. One good starter does not make a successful season.

It pains me to predict a losing record but here it is: 75-87

I will root and hope for better, however, happy to see my prediction fail spectacularly.

[Caveat Emperor]

71-91

The team will be out of contention by June, and there will be massive shakeups on the roster, with some combination of Jason LaRue, Austin Kearns, and Ryan Freel all dealt.

Jerry Narron will be fired on Thursday, June 15th and Bucky Dent will take over as the interim manager for the rest of the season.

Eric Milton will post a 5+ ERA for the season, but only on 18 starts, as he spends a good chunk of July and August on the DL before finally shutting it down.

Those are my Fearless precdictions.

[savafan]

I'm going to be the sunshine optimist here and predict 88-74, winning the NL Wild Card.

Watching Eric Milton pitch in spring training games this year, he looks like a completely different pitcher than I saw last year, and I'm not talking about the caveman stubble. His delievery is noticeably different, and seemingly more effective, and that has me a bit excited.

[dlconn]

85-77

[Reverend Doo-Rag]

72-90 start strong -> fade fast
Milton 9 wins, Arroyo 11, Harang 11, Claussen 8

Major roster turnover late.

[IowaRed]

Nothing about this team or the manager makes me think that they will win more games than last year

71-91

[flyer85]

The pitching has been improved by addition by subtraction. No Ortiz, Wilson, Graves, Valentine, Stone, Standridge, Weber, Hudson, Keisler. That is some serious subtraction. I think the Reds pitching will be better than expected while the offense may not quite measure up. The defense in CF and 2b is likely to be a problem. Hatteberg and Womack are not good things and I susupect that 2005 was Aurilia's last hurrah. I think there could be some turnover before the season starts.

77-85

[DeadRedinCT]

I'm thinking somewhere between 0-162 and 162-0. Although you could convince me otherwise.

[redsmetz]

85-77 - I'll choose to be optimistic. I think Hatteberg has a fair year and absolutely shocking many Redzoners - Womack has a half-way decent year.

[TRF]

71 - 91.

sadly. In my heart, I want that reversed, but my head sees Harang and Claussen and not much else. It sees 500 AB's from scrappy Hatteberg. He gets those AB's because everyone is distracted by the fact that Womack is the starting 2B. It kinda puts everyone into shock.

[Eric_Davis]

85-76.

One game will get rained out against Pittsburg that will never get made up.

[Newport Red]

The opposition and the Reds will both claim 81 games, shake hands and call it a year.

[redsfanmia]

This is going to go down as one of the worst years in recent memory 64 up and 98 down. On the bright side Wayne K is not afraid to make moves and totally blows it up.

[reds44]

98-64

Im feeling lucky

[Petitt33]

75-87.......

gonna be a long year. :(

[Reds1]

I'm going for 84 wins.

Griffey will be up for MVP honors, the Reds will stay relatively healthy and a pitcher to be named later will be the key to our success. Also, you heard it here 1st - Milton will get 14 wins despite giving up 39 HRs. :)

Go Reds!

[Betterread]

They will win 10 more games because of improved starting pitching.
They will lose 10 more games because of a weaker offense.
They will fall back an additional 6 games because of a bad bullpen.
Prediction 67-95.
If they improve to 80 wins, I will be quite pleased. Later I will wonder why.

[marcshoe]

Right now, I will say 78-84. Another deal or two could change that, though.

[M2]

I make no predictions until gonelong says it's time to predict.

[gonelong]

I make no predictions until gonelong says it's time to predict.

:eek:

I was going to start a thread on Thur/Friday, figured we might have a better idea of when Larue was going to be back.

Here are the old ones if anyone is interested:
2002 http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202
2003 http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414
2004 http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619
2005 http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108

GL

[Ron Madden]

I have nothing against Jerry Narron. I'd love to see him manage in AAA where he can mix and match scrappy baseball players with older guys who do the little things.

I'd love to see this pitching staff fool the world but....
With this pitching staff and this manager an 81-81 season bet would be a long shot.

My heart wants to say 88-74.

My head says 74-88. (hope i'm wrong)

[KearnsyEars]

90 and 72

[Strikes Out Looking]

88-74 and in contention for the Wild Card.

Here's how I think it will play out (in my wildest fantasies--or at least those not involving Elizabeth Hurley).

The Reds get off to a decent start in April as they get decent starting pitching (ERA of 4.5 for the month) and the bullpen blows only a couple of leads/saves. Womack is benched for a low OBP and lackluster defense--Freel and Aurilia basically split time at 2b after tax day.

As Memorial day winds closer, the Reds are a few games over .500. Wilson replaces Williams as the 5th Starter. Aurilia and Dunn see more time at 1b and Denforia is recalled from AAA to share time with Freel as the 4th OF when Dunn is at 1b. Dunn and JR. are both vying for the HR lead and Kearns, Ed. E and Lopez are having sold offensive years. Coffey becomes the closer and saves 90% of the leads he inherits.

Come summer, Williams and Milton (who has pitched sub 5.00 ERA) are dealt as part of a blockbuster deal (maybe 3 team) that gives the Reds another solid starting pitcher. They continue to play well until the last weekend of the season when they only need one victory to beat the Phillies out for the WC. They win on a Jr. home run, but the Phillies are in extra innings and we all have to sit on our hands until its over....

[Sabo4Life]

I like the wild card scenario, but I'm not as optimistic. 80-82

[gonelong]

Note: This is a good chance for all those lurkers out there to get a first post under their belt.

Ok, time for Gonelong's 5th annual Reds Win prediction thread. Similar to years past my requests are minimal:

1) We are not predicting a record here, but a range of 5 Wins you think the Reds will fall into. (Max range of 5 Ws, and not give or take 5 (a 10 W range).
2) Lets make our prediction as if your house was being bet on it. (Please no 162 Ws, etc ? we have other threads available for this)
3) I will be at home on opening day this year, not having a ticket, I'll be watching the game on the tube. (Please let this be on in HD!) I'll average the range in and come to a "Redszone consensus" (Hey, I just invented an Oxymoron!)
4) If I am feeling particularly sassy, I might just retroactively figure the first 4 Redszone's predictions and see how we "optimistic", "pessimistic", or "realistic" we are as a group.

Here are the historical prediction threads, if anyone wants to check on their past performance:
2002: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202
2003: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414
2004: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619
2005: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108

I realize there is a VERY similar thread on sticky at this point. Feel free to ignore this one, I won't be put out either way.

My prediction for 2006 Range of Reds Wins is between 72-77 Ws.

GL

Edit: Ok, shame on all of you for not calling me out on "range of 5 W's" for the past 4 seasons. 72-77 is actually a range of six ... 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, & 77 :redface:

[westofyou]

73-78

[Cyclone792]

Mark me down for 73-77 wins.

[Red Leader]

I'll go 71-75 wins.

[MasonBuzz3]

i'm going to go with 76-81 wins

[IowaRed]

70-75

[RedsManRick]

Put me down for 72-76.

[Red Leader]

Put me down for 72-76.

That's only a range of 4 :nono: :laugh:

Nevermind. I'm an idiot.

[DeadRedinCT]

76-80

[Reds Fanatic]

75-79

[redsfan30]

Just realized you don't want record totals, but a range.

77-81

[Strikes Out Looking]

83-88

[Shaggy Sanchez]

I will go with 74-78.

[Dunner44]

78-82

[KronoRed]

:eek:

I was going to start a thread on Thur/Friday, figured we might have a better idea of when Larue was going to be back.

Here are the old ones if anyone is interested:
2002 http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202
2003 http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414
2004 http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619
2005 http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108

GL
My predictionas have gone from 68 to 74 to 72

Bet with me folks :D

[KronoRed]

72-90

[pedro]

75-87

[Heath]

72-90

I'd like to check Krono's high school math class teacher. She was probably way too cute....;)

71-75. Its SO Cincinnati.

[CaiGuy]

90-94

Losses that is...:help:

[Eric_Davis]

You know what I'd like to see for once?

A dominating home record. The reds have floundered around .500 at home for 10 years now.

[Reds Nd2]

You know what I'd like to see for once?

A dominating home record. The reds have floundered around .500 at home for 10 years now.

It hasn't been that good for the home team. The Reds have a .487 winning percentage, at home, the last ten seasons. Ok, so I'm bored.

[Falls City Beer]

81 W

[redsfanmia]

66 to 71

[Raisor]

72 wins.

Rack me.

[Redsfaithful]

79-83 wins

[UPRedsFan]

81 - 85

[Joseph]

82-86

[paintmered]

71-76 wins.

[traderumor]

79-83

Sadly, I consider myself ever the optimist :(

[Caveat Emperor]

69-73 wins

God help this ballclub if Aaron Harang finds his way to the DL.

[RedsNeck]

85-90

[Hobo]

62-66

[RichRed]

76-80 wins

[Puffy]

69-73

[OnBaseMachine]

78 to 82.

[4256 Hits]

I will repeat my prediction from last year.

69-93

[vaticanplum]

79-83

Assuming that Krivsky trades for pitching before the deadline. Which I think he will.

If the Reds can hit 83 or 84 I think they will place third in the division. Seriously. That is how weak I think the NL Central will be this year.

edit: I have also elsewhere predicted that this guy
<<----- will pitch a perfect game in during the chicago home stretch the first week in July. Read it and weep! (or take my predictions with a grain of salt)

[cincrazy]

i'm leaning towards the optimistic side. i think our pitching's better than it has been in the past 5 years or so, and even in years where our pitching was horrific, we still somehow managed to hang around until June. I see more of the same this year. I think we can hang around until close to the deadline, then tail off, as the Rangers and Orioles have done in the past couple of years. Our pitching is better, but the depth is horrible. If one starter goes down, we're in major trouble. Injuries do happen, and we just don't have the kind of depth right now to battle through for a playoff spot if a big injury were to occur. With that being said, I'll say 82 wins. The streak of 5 straight losing seasons comes to an end :)

[NastyBoy]

79-83

[NastyBoy]

How many blown saves will they have???

[gonelong]

one shameless bump before the season starts.

GL

[dlconn]

82-86

[MWM]

72-77

[vaticanplum]

75-79

[KronoRed]

How many blown saves will they have???
Not too many, we don't have a closer to blow them.

[vaticanplum]

A new kind of optimism: If we're already losing, we can't blow a save!

[Falls City Beer]

A new kind of optimism: If we're already losing, we can't blow a save!

Alright...the board expressly forbids zen koans. :p:

[BuckeyeRedleg]

80-82

But for some reason, I can see the planets aligning perfectly and the Reds somehow winning 85-90 in a "freakshow" performance where they outperform RS-RA.

I don't know why.

[kbrake]

68-72

[reds44]

90-72

[M2]

Ooh, ooh, put me in the 69-73 club and I'll play 72-90 for the exacta.

[Ravenlord]

70-92

[captainmorgan07]

82-80

[top6]

70-92

[top6]

80-82

But for some reason, I can see the planets aligning perfectly and the Reds somehow winning 85-90 in a "freakshow" performance where they outperform RS-RA.

I don't know why.Because you are a baseball fan and it's March - that's why! :)

[paintmered]

I predict FCB will end up losing rights to another child.

:D


.......and 72 wins.

[cumberlandreds]

73-78 wins.

[MrCinatit]

73-77 wins.

[RFS62]

70-74

[RFS62]

With the current roster, 74 wins.

Who knows what changes will be made throughout the season. I'd bet a few.

But as they are right now, 74 tops.

[pedro]

82-86

that's a 168 game season.

[SteelSD]

78-84

Three game pythag gain over last season. Call me an optimist. ;)

[KronoRed]

that's a 168 game season.
Super suck teams play more.

Punishment.

[StillFunkyB]

76 - 86

I hope it's the other way around!

[Boss-Hog]

74-88

[smith288]

76-86

[alex trevino]

75-87

[TippyDrunks]

85-77 We all have to think positive for once in a while in the thread of prediction.


GO REDS.........................

[Eric_Davis]

Can you post in the first thread who came closest last year (since this is the 5th annual contest)?

[Kc61]

89 wins. Probably not enough for the wild card. Well, there's always 2007.

[User Name]

82-80. The first of 10 straight winning seasons.:pray:

[membengal]

Gimme 81-81. .500 will never have looked so good...

[oneupper]

78-84. Better, but not good.

[SteelSD]

Can you post in the first thread who came closest last year (since this is the 5th annual contest)?


2005 Actual Record: 73-89
2005 Pythag Record: 75-87
2005 PECOTA: 76-86

Closest to Actual:

M2: 74-88
MWM: 72-90
deltachi8: 72-90
RedFanAlways1966: 72-90

Closest to Pythag:

Ravenlord: 75-87
Raisor: 75-87
alloverjr: 75-87

[Reds Nd2]

70-74 Wins 72-90 Record

[TheBurn]

84-78 (+/- 3) :cool:

[Rex Argos]

83-79

[WVRedsFan]

86-76
I believe.

[WMR]

With Jerry Narron (actual prediction): 66 wins

Without Jerry Narron's mind-boggling management: 70 wins

A couple key injuries will cause the season to quickly tailspin after a decent start and Jerry will be a further hindrance.

[Edd Roush]

I'm going to go with a straight 81-81 season.

[DoogMinAmo]

80-84

[oregonred]

79-83 wins

[BigREDSfaninKY]

My best guess will be 79-83:mooner:

[flynn78]

Count me in for 72.

[alloverjr]

74 - 88.

Call it improvement.

[tripleaaaron]

78 wins unless they can add a SP and Todd Coffey has a monstrous year at closer then 86 or more

[BoomerSoonerRed]

78-84. We may get off to another slow start, but we might surprise some people after the All-Star break.

[Roy Tucker]

I'm the optimist. I'll say 82-80.

The Reds' pitching turns out to be only slightly bad instead of a train wreck.

The Reds start well, but injuries expose a very thin roster.

[Crosley68]

82-80

[SunDeck]

78-84
I sincerely hope I'm surprised.

[corkedbat]

78-84

[RBA]

Eighty-Five and Seventy-Seven

[TeamSelig]

79-82 wins

[Mario-Rijo]

84 w's gotta stick w/ it!