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View Full Version : Could the Reds have possibly gotten more for Sean Casey and Wily Mo Pena?



seligstinks
04-05-2006, 09:47 PM
Could the Reds have possibly gotten more for Sean Casey and Wily Mo Pena, if, let's say, they had not accepted cash for Pena, and if they had been willing to raise the payroll by perhaps up to $5 million a year for each deal? Why or why not? Also, who (if anyone) do you think they could or should have gotten under such circumstances?

reds44
04-05-2006, 09:53 PM
Casey maybe
WMP nope

KronoRed
04-05-2006, 09:55 PM
Doubt it on both.

flyer85
04-05-2006, 09:59 PM
possibly on Casey. I think DanO settled for whatever the Pirates offered. They had no use for Williams and didn't want to pay him.

vaticanplum
04-05-2006, 10:02 PM
I don't think so. Not for WMP -- believe it or not, many nonparial non-reds/Red Sox fans I've talked to have been very surprised the Reds were able to have a straight-up trade for Arroyo. Casey, after all, was not a straight-up trade. I still think that was partially a salary dump, and given the timing and Casey's age, a pretty wise one.

pedro
04-05-2006, 10:03 PM
nobody else wanted casey IMO

jmcclain19
04-05-2006, 10:06 PM
Casey's numbers in 2005
.312AVG/.371OBP/.423SLG/.794OPS
Overbay's numbers in 2005
.276AVG/.367OBP/.449/SLG.816OPS

Casey will make $8.5 mil in 2006
Overbay will make $2.25 mil in 2006

Casey will turn 32 this year
Overbay just turned 29

Casey netted Dave Williams and cash
Lyle Overbay netted Gabe Gross, Zach Jackson and David Bush

So I think it's safe to say that the Reds got much less for Casey than they should have. Or you could say that the Brewers committed highway robbery of the Blue Jays. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

reds44
04-05-2006, 10:08 PM
Casey's numbers in 2005
.312AVG/.371OBP/.423SLG/.794OPS
Overbay's numbers in 2005
.276AVG/.367OBP/.449/SLG.816OPS

Casey will make $8.5 mil in 2006
Overbay will make $2.25 mil in 2006

Casey will turn 32 this year
Overbay just turned 29

Casey netted Dave Williams and cash
Lyle Overbay netted Gabe Gross, Zach Jackson and David Bush

So I think it's safe to say that the Reds got much less for Casey than they could have.
What were the homer and RBI comparison? I honestly don't know.

Also Casey make over $6 mil more, I bet that had something to do with it.

flyer85
04-05-2006, 10:10 PM
What were the homer and RBI comparison? I honestly don't know.

Also Casey make over $6 mil more, I bet that had something to do with it.didn't the Reds throw in $2M+?

reds44
04-05-2006, 10:11 PM
didn't the Reds throw in $2M+?
Yes they did you are correct. I am still curious to see the homer and rbi numbers tho.

If they are anywhere close, then either A. we could have got more or B. the Jays got fleeced.

westofyou
04-05-2006, 10:12 PM
Could Jack have gotten more for that cow than a handful of beans?

Caveat Emperor
04-05-2006, 10:28 PM
So I think it's safe to say that the Reds got much less for Casey than they should have. Or you could say that the Brewers committed highway robbery of the Blue Jays. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Perception is 9/10ths of the truth. I'd venture (without having ever spoken to these mythical "baseball execs" who make such deals) that the perception around baseball is that Overbay has better days in front of him, and that Casey's best days are behind him.

When you add in that Casey makes $6 million more than Overbay, hit 10 fewer home runs than Overbay, 13 fewer XBHs, and knocked in 14 fewer RBI -- it probably made him less of a desireable commodity.

I think the Reds might've been able to get better, but only because I think Dave Williams is just a shade above worthless.

kbrake
04-05-2006, 10:56 PM
Funny how the tone on the Pena/Arroyo deal has changed so fast around here.

vaticanplum
04-05-2006, 11:11 PM
Funny how the tone on the Pena/Arroyo deal has changed so fast around here.

I don't know, there was a lot of debate but that's because a lot of people supported the deal.

NatiRedGals
04-05-2006, 11:12 PM
Always possibilties! :) http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/6064/endless28ef.th.jpg (http://img212.imageshack.us/my.php?image=endless28ef.jpg)

deltachi8
04-05-2006, 11:15 PM
Casey - nope, you got value.

Pena - I think yes, but only if you had waited until July. It would have been a risk, but one I would have taken myself. Of course there is a reason why I work in healthcare and not baseball...

corkedbat
04-05-2006, 11:19 PM
Don't know if they could have gotten more for Casey, but they couldn't have gotten much less.

Newman4
04-06-2006, 09:10 AM
Could trading Kearns gotten more than Pena?

redsmetz
04-06-2006, 09:20 AM
Don't know if they could have gotten more for Casey, but they couldn't have gotten much less.

On Casey, I'd have liked seeing another player thrown in, perhaps a AA pitcher. I think we got too little for Casey and think he'll be a great fit for Pittsburgh, both on and off the field. His numbers may not be stellar, but I don't think you can calculate the value he will bring to that clubhouse, particular with Tracy managing them now. I've said all along that Williams himself was shocked that it was a straight up trade (albeit with the cash flowing over from the Reds).

MattyHo4Life
04-06-2006, 09:37 AM
Funny how the tone on the Pena/Arroyo deal has changed so fast around here.

I don't think so. Most Zoners were all for getting Arroyo at the time of the trade. There is a big difference between wanting more in a deal than not wanting the deal at all.

wheels
04-06-2006, 09:40 AM
DanO could have done a better sell job on Casey.

The Pirates wanted him badly, being a hometown boy and all. DanO could have talked up his .370 OBP, and his 2004 numbers. Heck, he could have landed prospects instead of Dave Williams, maybe paying a bit of Casey's salary to get a better return.

Pena was a different story in my mind.

RFS62
04-06-2006, 09:47 AM
Could Casey have brought more? Maybe, but that wasn't the goal. His trade was a salary dump, and to free up first base for Dunn and unclog the outfield. That didn't work out the way it was drawn up, but I believe that was the idea at the time.

Could we have got more for Pena? Maybe, but we got what we needed, dealing from surplus into need.

You don't win every trade. Sometimes you overpay to fill a need. Deals don't happen in a vacuum, and can't be analyzed without a myriad of other factors being weighed.

MattyHo4Life
04-06-2006, 09:58 AM
Could Casey have brought more? Maybe, but that wasn't the goal. His trade was a salary dump, and to free up first base for Dunn and unclog the outfield. That didn't work out the way it was drawn up, but I believe that was the idea at the time.

Could we have got more for Pena? Maybe, but we got what we needed, dealing from surplus into need.

You don't win every trade. Sometimes you overpay to fill a need. Deals don't happen in a vacuum, and can't be analyzed without a myriad of other factors being weighed.

Of course it was a salary dump, but what good came from it. The team made a little extra money. The fans don't benefit from a salary dump unless the money is put back into the team. The Casey trade makes some sense if Pena is kept. I don't see how it makes sense to trade both Pena and Casey. I think the Reds would have been better off keeping Casey and dealing Pena for Arroyo.

puca
04-06-2006, 10:10 AM
Don't know if they could have gotten more for Casey, but they couldn't have gotten much less.

Very true.

Johnny Footstool
04-06-2006, 10:17 AM
They could have done better on both deals.

But we've debated this endlessly on other threads.

traderumor
04-06-2006, 10:18 AM
The Reds should have sweetened the pot with Casey and another offensive player, such as Freel to replace Mocowiak, to get one of the major league ready, cheap young arms away from the Pirates. Of course, much like the Reds are way too slow in their pursuit of pitching while holding on to a boatload of offense, the Pirates still don't seem to recognize that they may have an excess of good young pitching but year after year have a pitiful offense that turns losing low scoring games into an art form much like the Reds have done so with high scoring games.

remdog
04-06-2006, 10:21 AM
Most Zoners were all for getting Arroyo at the time of the trade.

I would disagree with that.

Most 'zoners didn't really know a whole lot about Arroyo. They just knew that they got a pitcher for an outfielder.

Could the Reds have gotten more for Pena? Perhaps. If they had waited till mid-season. What the people that objected to the deal was that it didn't really do anything to get the Reds to the WS. Now, we're simply in the race for 5th place. Whoopee!

Rem

traderumor
04-06-2006, 10:39 AM
I would disagree with that.

Most 'zoners didn't really know a whole lot about Arroyo. They just knew that they got a pitcher for an outfielder.

Could the Reds have gotten more for Pena? Perhaps. If they had waited till mid-season. What the people that objected to the deal was that it didn't really do anything to get the Reds to the WS. Now, we're simply in the race for 5th place. Whoopee!

Rem
That's hogwash. There is a megapost thread that discusses nearly everything but what Arroyo eats for breakfast and what kind of toilet paper he uses. And that might be in there somewhere, I might have just missed it because of all the posts.

westofyou
04-06-2006, 10:42 AM
Now, we're simply in the race for 5th place. Whoopee!As if any other sort of place was attainable?

If most "zoners" didn't know who Arroyo was by your POV, I'll counter that most of them also know that there's a snowball's chance in hell of the Reds even finishing 2nd in their division, with Arroyo or Pena or even both on the team.

MartyFan
04-06-2006, 10:50 AM
The only way I see getting more value for Casey was trading him a couple of years earlier...same with WMP.

I like the deal with the BoSox and did at the time of the trade...we need arms more than we need a 4th OF with the masssive power of WMP.

registerthis
04-06-2006, 10:53 AM
That's hogwash. There is a megapost thread that discusses nearly everything but what Arroyo eats for breakfast and what kind of toilet paper he uses. And that might be in there somewhere, I might have just missed it because of all the posts.

Wheaties and Charmin, I hear.

I can't believe the Reds traded WMP for a guy that uses Charmin TP. Ridiculous. They could have at least gotten a guy who uses Charmin AND a guy who uses Cottonelle. The Reds got fleeced.

remdog
04-06-2006, 11:34 AM
That's hogwash. There is a megapost thread that discusses nearly everything but what Arroyo eats for breakfast and what kind of toilet paper he uses. And that might be in there somewhere, I might have just missed it because of all the posts.

Then maybe that hog that needs washing. 'Cause the point you and every other supporter of the trade consistantly ignored was not that Arroyo wasn't a step up in terms of pitching but that it was, and will be in the future, a trade that will not put the Reds in contention for this year and it took away a potential trading chip that might have made a difference down the road.

But hey, I don't expect everyone to understand that. In fact, I don't expect most of the 'masses' to understand it. As P.T Barnum said......

RedsBaron
04-06-2006, 11:36 AM
The only way I see getting more value for Casey was trading him a couple of years earlier...same with WMP.


Yep. I would have loved to have seen the Reds trade Casey after the 2004 season, and he should have brought more in return then.

remdog
04-06-2006, 11:37 AM
As if any other sort of place was attainable?

If most "zoners" didn't know who Arroyo was by your POV, I'll counter that most of them also know that there's a snowball's chance in hell of the Reds even finishing 2nd in their division, with Arroyo or Pena or even both on the team.

And I'll counter that there is a significant group of people on this site that have their heads ummmm, in the clouds and think that this is a trade that made the season and don't consider or even think about effects down the road.

Rem

Heath
04-06-2006, 11:41 AM
Hindsight is always 20/20.

While the optimists claim a sleeper year and there are others claiming them to be the worst team in the NL.

Whether Casey, Pena, or Arroyo et. al. would make a difference, who knows.

There are other things to worry about.

TRF
04-06-2006, 11:41 AM
I don't think so. Most Zoners were all for getting Arroyo at the time of the trade. There is a big difference between wanting more in a deal than not wanting the deal at all.

Agreed. I still think they could have gotten more, but it is what it is.

registerthis
04-06-2006, 11:46 AM
But hey, I don't expect everyone to understand that. In fact, I don't expect most of the 'masses' to understand it. As P.T Barnum said......

Of course, YOU consistently neglect the fact that a pitcher like Arroyo is capable of making us competitive in years to come. The "potential trading chip down the road" may or may not ever pan out to the value some people here wish to assign to him, ignoring the fact that we got an above-average starter for three years at a very affordable price for him.

But then again, you'd rather just generalize and toss around irrelevant P.T. Barnum references.

TRF
04-06-2006, 12:15 PM
rem may be gruff, but I don't think the PT Barnum content is irrelevent. We've been carny fodder for quite some time, and we keep coming back for more.

The last time the Reds won a trade was Guillen for Harang. Mateo and EE for Rob Bell might also constitute a win. Everything besides those 2 moves in 6 years... pfft!

Casey was traded a year too late. For a number 5 starter.
WMP a half season (at best) too soon. For a number 3 starter. At best. And I actually think for at least the first half, he'll pitch like a #2.

I'm not asking that the GM fleece a team. But it would be nice to at least break even and actually improve the club. Dave Williams does not improve this club. Arroyo does, but he could have been had at the break, especially if the Sox get a little nervous in what might shape up to be a 3 team race this season. And if they do.. the price goes up.

BUt what we got was more sleight of hand. "Folks, he's better than what we had... pay no attention to that Hatteberg behind the curtain!"

traderumor
04-06-2006, 12:22 PM
Then maybe that hog that needs washing. 'Cause the point you and every other supporter of the trade consistantly ignored was not that Arroyo wasn't a step up in terms of pitching but that it was, and will be in the future, a trade that will not put the Reds in contention for this year and it took away a potential trading chip that might have made a difference down the road.

But hey, I don't expect everyone to understand that. In fact, I don't expect most of the 'masses' to understand it. As P.T Barnum said......

Gee, thanks for letting all of us suckers in on your irrefutable genius. Not to mention that the P.T. Barnum story is a myth.

westofyou
04-06-2006, 12:30 PM
Not to mention that the P.T. Barnum story is a myth.
Does that mean Wily Mo is the Cardiff Giant of baseball players?

registerthis
04-06-2006, 12:38 PM
rem may be gruff, but I don't think the PT Barnum content is irrelevent. We've been carny fodder for quite some time, and we keep coming back for more.

So by virtue of the fact that the Reds have lost more trades than they've won, Reds fans are incapable of judging a trade on its merits?

I don't buy it.

Those of us who supported the WMP-BA trade aren't suckers or homers--we simply looked at the players involved, what they might bring to their respective clubs, and were satisfied with the results.

No one here has a monopoly on the truth, so throwing out lines calling people who feel differently than you "suckers" is irrelevant and asinine.

RedsManRick
04-06-2006, 12:41 PM
While I think most us agree that it doesn't look like Dave Williams will be a valuable member of the Reds, perhaps we should let his performance bear that out before declaring that we could've gotten better value from Casey.

The fact is that, like Pena, his availability was no secret and that if any significantly better offer were on the table, it would have been acted on. The shame in the Casey trade is that we traded while his value was low and then O'Brien turned around and turned some of the value we got back in to Tony Womack. If that cash we saved had instead been turned in to something useful, the Casey deal may look better in retrospect.

That all said, if Dave Williams gives us 180 IP with a 4.20 ERA this year, I don't think anybody can say we got poor value for Casey.

traderumor
04-06-2006, 12:46 PM
Does that mean Wily Mo is the Cardiff Giant of baseball players?I guess that will depend on the yarns Red Sox fans spin on top of the myths spread far and wide in Reds Country.

registerthis
04-06-2006, 12:48 PM
The shame in the Casey trade is that we traded while his value was low

That's the problem right there. Everyone and their mother knew Casey should have been dealt after the 2004 season. Well, everyone except our own GM, it seems.