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View Full Version : The bullpen matters too



Kc61
04-06-2006, 10:10 PM
With all the emphasis on starting pitchers the Reds' bullpen looks pretty weak. With all the emphasis on starting pitching, the Reds can't forget about developing some relievers. Maybe this explains Medlock's move to the pen at AA.

The only promising late inning reliever on the staff is Coffey. Wagner has been iffy so far in his career. Some young hard throwing relievers wouldn't hurt.

KronoRed
04-06-2006, 10:15 PM
They sent one to AAA, otherwise the system is bare.

kbrake
04-06-2006, 10:28 PM
The only two guys I feel confident in right now is Weahters and Belisle. And I really dont know that calling up Wagner is that great of a solution.

wheels
04-06-2006, 10:47 PM
I will say that if Weathers is the closer, and has a decent season......

Well, if he's not traded at the deadline, our new GM might be asleep at the wheel.

Maybe I'm getting ahead of myself here, but a real opportunity might be in the midst of presenting itself.

ochre
04-06-2006, 10:49 PM
I'd have liked Basham in that role.

**Implied Medlock role that is.

kbrake
04-06-2006, 10:51 PM
Wheels I think if Mercker or Weathers are doing decent at the break or near it, both of them have to be gone and I dont think Krivsky will miss that chance. As for right does anyone think we could trade anything majors or minors that would help the bullpen out at all, without really hurting the team too much in any other way.

wheels
04-06-2006, 11:39 PM
Wheels I think if Mercker or Weathers are doing decent at the break or near it, both of them have to be gone and I dont think Krivsky will miss that chance. As for right does anyone think we could trade anything majors or minors that would help the bullpen out at all, without really hurting the team too much in any other way.

Nope.

They pretty much gotta go with what they have.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-07-2006, 12:52 AM
Let's not forget that everyone hated Weathers, last year at this time as well, and now he's Eric Gagne around here. While I agree the BP doesn't have anyone that inspires confidence, we knew that two months ago. Basically, nothing that has happened so far should be freaking people out that they shouldn't have already expected.

It's early. Who knows, we may find another Biff Gagne amongst this current cast of Milton's.

WVPacman
04-07-2006, 12:53 AM
Guys I did'nt get to watch hardly none of Spring training so I might be wrong for what im about to say.

Why would you send down a quality young pitcher like Wagner thats getting better and better for a pitcher like White who I have to honestly say scares me to death when he pitchs.Wagner's pitchs has more movement on them and can get you out of big jams something White can't do.Wagner would be a perfect set up man in the seventh or eighth inning for Weathers to close out the game.

Aronchis
04-07-2006, 12:58 AM
Guys I did'nt get to watch hardly none of Spring training so I might be wrong for what im about to say.

Why would you send down a quality young pitcher thats getting better like Wagner for a pitcher like White who I have to honestly say scares me to death when he pitchs.Wagner's pitchs has more movement on them and can get you out of big jams something White can't do.Wagner would be a perfect set up man in the seventh or eighth inning for Weathers to close out the game.

Because White's got gmoney and Narron has manlove for Burns. Wagner should have made the team, but somethings got in his way. He will be up here soon enough though, so I don't think we will have to wait overly long.

RedsManRick
04-07-2006, 01:02 AM
Grooming minor leaguers to be relievers is fairly new, right? There are numerous good relievers who were starters in the minors -- gagne, rivera, williamson jump to mind. If a guy could start effectively, he should be starting.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-07-2006, 01:05 AM
Whatever happened to Simpson and Booker? Did they miss too many bats for our system?

BCubb2003
04-07-2006, 02:16 AM
my theory is that we had great bullpens because the starting pitching was so bad and we can*t have both.

KronoRed
04-07-2006, 03:35 AM
Whatever happened to Simpson and Booker? Did they miss too many bats for our system?
Think they both got the ole DFA

flyer85
04-07-2006, 08:24 AM
Whatever happened to Simpson and Booker? Did they miss too many bats for our system?they were not able to learn to "pitch to contact"

RedsManRick
04-07-2006, 10:38 AM
they were not able to learn to "pitch to contact"

I thought the problem was their inability to "pitch to strike zone"....

Doc. Scott
04-07-2006, 05:51 PM
Decent relievers grow on trees. Dominant relievers, not so much, but guys who can put up a 4.00 ERA in a major-league bullpen? Pretty easy.

TC81190
04-07-2006, 05:59 PM
If their ERAs are under 4 by July, Weathers, Mercker, White, and Hammond better be out of here.

buckeyenut
04-07-2006, 10:13 PM
Guys I did'nt get to watch hardly none of Spring training so I might be wrong for what im about to say.

Why would you send down a quality young pitcher like Wagner thats getting better and better for a pitcher like White who I have to honestly say scares me to death when he pitchs.Wagner's pitchs has more movement on them and can get you out of big jams something White can't do.Wagner would be a perfect set up man in the seventh or eighth inning for Weathers to close out the game.

Because you roll the dice. If White gets off to a good start (which ANY reliever can get lucky and do) he could get dealt to a contender if he has a mid June ERA under 4. Very possible with limited innings and there is always a contender looking for a veteran arm having a good year.

Candy Cummings
04-08-2006, 08:58 AM
I don't have numbers to back it up, but I can't believe that gettting a bullpen that pitches to the NL Avg ERA at an average $$ should be that difficult. Right now, we're really suffering out there.

Hoosier Red
04-08-2006, 09:27 AM
I think people are missing the point of league average.

It's not necessarily easy to have a "league average" bullpen because by definition, half the league is better, and half the league is worse.
There have to be teams who are in the bottom half of the league, or else there would be no league average.

Spitball
04-08-2006, 09:36 AM
... because by definition, half the league is better, and half the league is worse.

I believe that would be the league median, the middle point of the averages. Actually, league average could be anywhere in between, especially if there are really bad or good statistics by one or more teams.

The average of 18, 2, 1 is 7. The median is 2.

Candy Cummings
04-08-2006, 09:41 AM
Hoosier, I was thinking more like this...

There should be the most players available around the league average. Some pitchers are really good---they are scarce. And some are really poor--they are scarce and not around much. But, there should be the most pitchers around the league average. If that's true, it should be an affordable market, and we should be able to find enough to compete.

Anyone with knowledge of the actual distribution being different is welcome to correct this.

Kc61
04-08-2006, 10:05 AM
What teams have deep bullpens and may be good trade partners for the Reds? Who can the Reds realistically target to improve the pen this year?

IslandRed
04-08-2006, 11:22 AM
Hoosier, I was thinking more like this...

There should be the most players available around the league average. Some pitchers are really good---they are scarce. And some are really poor--they are scarce and not around much. But, there should be the most pitchers around the league average. If that's true, it should be an affordable market, and we should be able to find enough to compete.

Anyone with knowledge of the actual distribution being different is welcome to correct this.

Yeah, the distribution's different. The talent pool goes something like:

* Superstars -- not many
* Well above average -- more, but not in great numbers
* "Major league average" -- more
* Below ML average -- lots more
* Replacement level -- bunches and bunches
* Not ML caliber at all -- everyone else

Because the better pitchers get more innings, the statistics that define an "average" major-league pitcher are actually skewed towards the top part of the talent pool. There are more below-average pitchers in the majors than above-average ones. A major leaguer who is putting up major-league average statistics is a valuable part of a team, not an easily replaceable part. Which leads to the concept of "replacement level." That type of player -- easily and cheaply obtainable, the type any club can go out and get -- is not average. He's considerably below that.

Which is to say, poor pitchers aren't scarce, they're unbelievably abundant. They just don't get to keep their jobs very long.

Now, you're right about one thing -- the bullpen is the easiest part of the team to assemble on the cheap. It's also the hardest, if that makes any sense. Bullpen guys are hugely unpredictable, so getting the right mix of guys in any given year is as much luck as science.

Hoosier Red
04-08-2006, 12:37 PM
I believe that would be the league median, the middle point of the averages. Actually, league average could be anywhere in between, especially if there are really bad or good statistics by one or more teams.

The average of 18, 2, 1 is 7. The median is 2.

Yeah yeah yeah, details.
I knew somebody was going to catch me on that.