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Matt700wlw
04-09-2006, 01:49 PM
Nothing to this....just thought of it...

Dunn to the A's for Barry Zito straight up. Would you do it?

OnBaseMachine
04-09-2006, 01:51 PM
Hell no.

Zito is from California, no way he would sign a LTC in Cincy. Even if he would, the Reds still get ripped off. There is only two players in baseball who I would trade Dunn for: Albert Pujols and Rich Harden.

NatiRedGals
04-09-2006, 01:52 PM
Rich Harden Yes! Zito No!!

Matt700wlw
04-09-2006, 01:55 PM
Didn't think of Rich Harden......I like that one!

BEETTLEBUG
04-09-2006, 01:56 PM
Rich Harden Yes! Zito No!!


I heard he maybe would sign with one of the New York teams. DUH DUH

cincy09
04-09-2006, 01:56 PM
Dunn to the A's for Barry Zito straight up. Would you do it?

Bet Dano would jump on it! :bang:

Matt700wlw
04-09-2006, 01:58 PM
Bet Dano would jump on it! :bang:

That's better than anything DanO came up with...

cincy09
04-09-2006, 02:09 PM
That's better than anything DanO came up with...

Very true

KronoRed
04-09-2006, 04:05 PM
Zito? no..Harden? YES

SirFelixCat
04-09-2006, 04:06 PM
No, Harden yes, Zito, no

VI_RedsFan
04-09-2006, 04:57 PM
Zito? No, no, and no. Harden? Yes, yes, and yes

dougdirt
04-09-2006, 06:28 PM
No, but only becuase of his current contract. If they had the same contracts, without a doubt.

indyred
04-09-2006, 06:47 PM
I would consider it. Haven't followed Zito all that close of late. I doubt A's would be interested in the deal.

VI_RedsFan
04-09-2006, 07:15 PM
I doubt A's would be interested in the deal.

Why not? Zito is a free agent after the season and likely won't return to Oakland. Dunn is probably the best they could get for Zito in a trade.

BTW, me saying this doesn't mean I would do the deal. I would hang Kriv if he did it.

indyred
04-09-2006, 09:33 PM
Didn't know Zito was FA........Zito would have to be locked up for a few years for the Reds to even consider doing the deal. We all know how much we would have to overpay him to pitch in GAB.........So there is absolutley no way I would do this deal as it stands today.

VI_RedsFan
04-09-2006, 09:40 PM
Didn't know Zito was FA........Zito would have to be locked up for a few years for the Reds to even consider doing the deal. We all know how much we would have to overpay him to pitch in GAB.........So there is absolutley no way I would do this deal as it stands today.

OK then :)

pedro
04-09-2006, 09:43 PM
Nothing to this....just thought of it...

Dunn to the A's for Barry Zito straight up. Would you do it?

no way. Zito is in his walk year.

pedro
04-09-2006, 09:44 PM
I would consider it. Haven't followed Zito all that close of late. I doubt A's would be interested in the deal.

the A's would do it in a minute. Zito's gone after this year.

Gainesville Red
04-09-2006, 09:56 PM
I don't really follow the AL, so I could be way off base, but hasn't Zito been on sort of a decline? I'm too lazy to look up stats. Even if he has, he's still prob. better than anything we've got. Not saying I'd give up Dunn for him. Dunn's comedic value alone makes him okay in my book.

Reds Nd2
04-09-2006, 10:06 PM
Dunn to the A's for Barry Zito straight up. Would you do it?

Absolutely not. Zito walks after this season and Dunns tied up, relatively cheap, for the next two seasons with a Reds only option for the third year.

However, I might send him to Oakland for Blanton and Duchscherer. Of course, making trades on a message board are like going home from the bar with a fat girl. It may seem like a good idea at the time, but eventually you wake up and wonder what the hell you were thinking.

Highlifeman21
04-10-2006, 06:34 PM
Lopez for Bobby Crosby, straight up.

While we're at it, let's send them something for Huston Street.

Never hurts to dream...

OnBaseMachine
04-10-2006, 06:54 PM
Lopez for Bobby Crosby, straight up.

Interesting.

Yesterday you said the Reds should trade Lopez because he's only had one good year. Now you are proposing the Reds trade Lopez for Bobby Crosby, who ironically has only had one good year in 2004 and it was only 333 atbats. Meanwhile, Felipe had a solid second half of 2004, a great 2005, and is off to a great start in 2006.

Crosby will be a fine player but Lopez is better at this point. The Reds get the short end of the stick in this deal.

Highlifeman21
04-10-2006, 07:04 PM
Interesting.

Yesterday you said the Reds should trade Lopez because he's only had one good year. Now you are proposing the Reds trade Lopez for Bobby Crosby, who ironically has only had one good year in 2004 and it was only 333 atbats. Meanwhile, Felipe had a solid second half of 2004, a great 2005, and is off to a great start in 2006.

Crosby will be a fine player but Lopez is better at this point. The Reds get the short end of the stick in this deal.


I feel Crosby is better defensively, although off the top of my head don't have any numbers to back that up, just IMO. I think Lopez does have value to the team, just not at SS. Move him to 2B, play Phillips at SS and see how we improve defensively. I think too much emphasis is placed on improving the pitching when our defense is also a major liability to improve. We need both, but I think in the short run we can improve defensively more easily that we can improve the quality of our arms.

reds44
04-10-2006, 07:10 PM
[QUOTE=Highlifeman21]Lopez for Bobby Crosby, straight up.
QUOTE]

Nope, IMO Lopez has a higher cieling then Crosby, and he is better right now.

Yes Felipe isn't the greatest shortstop defensively, but he isn't that bad.

VI_RedsFan
04-10-2006, 07:12 PM
Lopez for Bobby Crosby, straight up.

Sorry, no. I don't trade Felipe unless we get an ace or a legit closer in return.

pedro
04-10-2006, 07:18 PM
For pursposes of comparison Pecota projects Lopez to have a VORP this year of 21.7 with a defense value of -7 runs and Croby to have a VORP of 32.3 with a defensive value of +4 runs.

OnBaseMachine
04-10-2006, 07:28 PM
Interesting.

Yesterday you said the Reds should trade Lopez because he's only had one good year. Now you are proposing the Reds trade Lopez for Bobby Crosby, who ironically has only had one good year in 2004 and it was only 333 atbats. Meanwhile, Felipe had a solid second half of 2004, a great 2005, and is off to a great start in 2006.

Crosby will be a fine player but Lopez is better at this point. The Reds get the short end of the stick in this deal.

I would love to see the Reds switch Lopez to second and put a gold glove caliber player at SS. I agree with that part. However, I wouldn't trade Lopez just for the sake of trading him. I want a #1 type of starter in return if I'm trading him.

Cyclone792
04-10-2006, 07:33 PM
Yes Felipe isn't the greatest shortstop defensively, but he isn't that bad.

Well ...

According to Pinto's PMR, Lopez in 2005 was at circa -20 runs above average defensively.
According to BP's fielding runs above average, Lopez in 2005 was at -19 runs above average.
According to The Fielder's Bible, Lopez ranked 25th out of 30 shortstops.
According to defensive win shares, Lopez in 2005 had 2.6 defensive win shares, good for 29th among shortstops.

No matter how you look at it, that's bad. Maybe his UZR tells a different story, but Lopez's defense in 2005 is ranked no better than awful by four other defensive metrics. It probably pains some people to realize this, but if 2005 is any indication, Felipe Lopez is just a plain bad shortstop defensively.

KronoRed
04-10-2006, 07:34 PM
But he's better then Aurilia, the one most of us are probably comparing him to ;)

Highlifeman21
04-10-2006, 07:39 PM
Sorry, no. I don't trade Felipe unless we get an ace or a legit closer in return.


so see what else we can send the A's for Street and Crosby along with Lopez and whatever.... bottomline, we'd be improving our team immensely defensively, while really not giving up all that much offense if any at all, and we'd be getting a closer who shut the door on a consistent basis albeit in his rookie year

VI_RedsFan
04-10-2006, 08:01 PM
so see what else we can send the A's for Street and Crosby along with Lopez and whatever.... bottomline, we'd be improving our team immensely defensively, while really not giving up all that much offense if any at all, and we'd be getting a closer who shut the door on a consistent basis albeit in his rookie year

Two things:

1. The A's will never trade Street

2. You say we aren't giving up that much offense, but this trade would have us losing arguably our BEST offensive player in Lopez? :rolleyes:

Cyclone792
04-10-2006, 08:05 PM
But he's better then Aurilia, the one most of us are probably comparing him to ;)

Probably better, but not by much ;)

The Reds are in a bit of a quandry as far as the middle infield is concerned defensively. We have a pair of guys in Freel and Lopez who are both suited to play second base and both should be in the lineup every day because of their offensive abilities. As long as we have both of them, I'm tolerant of playing Lopez at shortstop with the hope and prayer that Freel gets regular action at second base.

Of course, Narron has that infatuation with Player F so it shoots that theory down the drain ;)

There will likely be a day, perhaps very soon, where I'll be ranting about the necessity of moving Lopez to second base.

Highlifeman21
04-10-2006, 08:06 PM
Two things:

1. The A's will never trade Street

2. You say we aren't giving up that much offense, but this trade would have us losing arguably our BEST offensive player in Lopez? :rolleyes:


1. You're right about Street. I wouldn't trade him if I were the A's. But like I said, never hurts to dream.

2. Lopez being our BEST offensive player scares me b/c I'm pretty sure his RC and Winshares aren't the best on the team. We have plenty of offense on this team. Subtract Lopez and add a better glove, and we're a better ballclub overall. Period.

VI_RedsFan
04-10-2006, 08:11 PM
1. But like I said, never hurts to dream.

Hey, I don't blame you there...I love to dream. :)

KYRedsFan
04-10-2006, 08:15 PM
Zito, too late on that one. No way

Highlifeman21
04-10-2006, 08:15 PM
Two things:

1. The A's will never trade Street

2. You say we aren't giving up that much offense, but this trade would have us losing arguably our BEST offensive player in Lopez? :rolleyes:




Player: RC: Winshares (Batting):

Lopez 100 19.9

Dunn 111 26.5

That right there tells me that Dunn is our BEST offensive player, and for the record, Lopez was 3rd last year behind Griffey for Batting Winshares, as well as 3rd behind Griffey for RC.

reds44
04-10-2006, 08:19 PM
Player: RC: Winshares (Batting):

Lopez 100 19.9

Dunn 111 26.5

That right there tells me that Dunn is our BEST offensive player, and for the record, Lopez was 3rd last year behind Griffey for Batting Winshares, as well as 3rd behind Griffey for RC.
Sometimes you have to look beyond stats. With the bases loaded and two out who would you rather be at the plate? Dunn or Felipe? I want Felipe. These winsharers and vorp stats I don't care about. Watch the game, and tell me what happens. Take any non-Reds fan and have him watch alot of Reds games and he will tell you that our best player is Felipe. My brother is a Sox fan and he says our best player is Lopez.

Why do you want to trade our 26 year old all-star SS so badly?

For umpteenth time, keep Felipe and Dunn and build around them.

VI_RedsFan
04-10-2006, 08:26 PM
Sometimes you have to look beyond stats. With the bases loaded and two out who would you rather be at the plate? Dunn or Felipe? I want Felipe.

For umpteenth time, keep Felipe and Dunn and build around them.

I wholeheartedly agree, reds44.

Highlifeman21
04-10-2006, 08:30 PM
Sometimes you have to look beyond stats. With the bases loaded and two out who would you rather be at the plate? Dunn or Felipe? I want Felipe.

Why do you want to trade our 26 year old all-star SS so badly?

For umpteenth time, keep Felipe and Dunn and build around them.


You've established your raging case of manlove for Lopez. That's apparent. Statistics don't lie. Lopez has no glove, and has had 1 decent year and was selected as the Reds AS representative. I've never put much stock in All-Star selections, but that's another topic... My guess would be that Lopez has good market value right now for a trade, and unless we're going to move him to 2B, he would better help our ballclub via trade to pick up more pieces to solve this Reds puzzle.

It's not that I want to trade Felipe so badly as much as I think trading him would help the ballclub more than keeping him. He won't get better defensively, so why not move him when his perceived value is high? If we can get an arm to compliment Harang, Claussen and Arroyo, do it. If we can get a far superior defensive SS who isn't a complete offensive liability, then do that.

I'll keep saying it, cuz apparently you haven't heard me.... we have enough offense, let's concentrate on improving the pitching and the defense so we can one day win the Wild Card and then try and win the Central.

pedro
04-10-2006, 08:33 PM
Sometimes you have to look beyond stats. With the bases loaded and two out who would you rather be at the plate? Dunn or Felipe? I want Felipe. These winsharers and vorp stats I don't care about. Watch the game, and tell me what happens. Take any non-Reds fan and have him watch alot of Reds games and he will tell you that our best player is Felipe. My brother is a Sox fan and he says our best player is Lopez.

Why do you want to trade our 26 year old all-star SS so badly?

For umpteenth time, keep Felipe and Dunn and build around them.

You aren't going to get very far with the whole I don't care about stats b/c I watch the game and I know better. This stuff isn't just being made up. It's being created by people who are a lot smarter than most anyone on RZ, including both you and I.

BTW- Last year Lopez had 10 total AB's with the bases loaded and Dunn had 13 so I don't think I'll pick my team based on what happens in those situations.

reds44
04-10-2006, 08:42 PM
You aren't going to get very far with the whole I don't care about stats b/c I watch the game and I know better. This stuff isn't just being made up. It's being created by people who are a lot smarter than most anyone on RZ, including both you and I.

BTW- Last year Lopez had 10 total AB's with the bases loaded and Dunn had 13 so I don't think I'll pick my team based on what happens in those situations.
VORP also said Aaron Rowand was a better fielder then Willy Mays.


'Nuff said.

pedro
04-10-2006, 08:46 PM
VORP also said Aaron Rowand was a better fielder then Willy Mays.


'Nuff said.


VORP isn't a purely defensive metric. It stands for Value Above Replacement Player.

I'm not sure you know what you are talking about.

Can you show me where you got that from?

pedro
04-10-2006, 08:47 PM
Besides, how would you know he wasn't? You apparently have to watch games to know and Willy Mays had been retired for 16 years when you born.

reds44
04-10-2006, 08:49 PM
I guess I could be wrong, but I swear I remember seeing it sometime last year.

This is like the 3rd time we have had this argument, and I will keep saying the same things. Build are Felipe and Dunn. Two 26 years olds who have already been all-stars, one who one a silver slugger at his position, should not be leaving town anytime soon.

BRM
04-10-2006, 08:50 PM
I guess I could be wrong, but I swear I remember seeing it sometime last year.

This is like the 3rd time we have had this argument, and I will keep saying the same things. Build are Felipe and Dunn. Two 26 years olds who have already been all-stars, one who one a silver slugger at his position, should not be leaving town anytime soon.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds build around those two. I'd rather move Lopez to 2B and get a glove man to play SS though.

pedro
04-10-2006, 08:52 PM
I guess I could be wrong, but I swear I remember seeing it sometime last year.

This is like the 3rd time we have had this argument, and I will keep saying the same things. Build are Felipe and Dunn. Two 26 years olds who have already been all-stars, one who one a silver slugger at his position, should not be leaving town anytime soon.

Don't get me wrong. I like Felipe. I just think he should be moved to 2B if the Reds can get a SS who is better defensively.

Right now, the Reds can't afford to make anybody untouchable if teh right trade comes along.

Highlifeman21
04-10-2006, 08:55 PM
I guess I could be wrong, but I swear I remember seeing it sometime last year.

This is like the 3rd time we have had this argument, and I will keep saying the same things. Build are Felipe and Dunn. Two 26 years olds who have already been all-stars, one who one a silver slugger at his position, should not be leaving town anytime soon.


Would love to see where you saw that Rowand is better than Mays...

I agree building around Dunn, b/c he's a franchise type player, but as for Lopez, I'm not saying to trade him just to trade him, I'm saying his overall value to the Reds may be in the value as to what we could get via trade for him. IMO, I would MUCH rather we keep Lopez, move him to 2B, and get a defensive whiz at SS, but I firmly believe that we can improve on Lopez with either a better starting pitcher, or a better defensive SS and a bullpen arm. If we trade Aurillia or Womack, they have FAR less trade value than Lopez, so while I don't like them on the Reds, they've produced so far in the infield-go-round of Jerry Narron.

If we could get a Dontrelle Willis (although after his WBC showing I'm not sold on him) for Lopez, would you do that? If we could get a starter from the White Sox named Vazquez, Buerhle or Garland for Lopez, would you do that?

reds44
04-10-2006, 09:18 PM
Would love to see where you saw that Rowand is better than Mays...

I agree building around Dunn, b/c he's a franchise type player, but as for Lopez, I'm not saying to trade him just to trade him, I'm saying his overall value to the Reds may be in the value as to what we could get via trade for him. IMO, I would MUCH rather we keep Lopez, move him to 2B, and get a defensive whiz at SS, but I firmly believe that we can improve on Lopez with either a better starting pitcher, or a better defensive SS and a bullpen arm. If we trade Aurillia or Womack, they have FAR less trade value than Lopez, so while I don't like them on the Reds, they've produced so far in the infield-go-round of Jerry Narron.

If we could get a Dontrelle Willis (although after his WBC showing I'm not sold on him) for Lopez, would you do that? If we could get a starter from the White Sox named Vazquez, Buerhle or Garland for Lopez, would you do that?
Willis
Buerhle
yes

Garland
Vazquez
no

And who knows, next year Felipe could be moved to 2B and BP be the SS. I don't care if we move Felipe to 2B, but I just think him and Dunn should be here for along time.

However if somebody comes calling with a Willis or Buerhle type, I wouldn't be against trading Lopez. But it would have to be a TOP pitcher.

SteelSD
04-11-2006, 01:54 AM
Sometimes you have to look beyond stats. With the bases loaded and two out who would you rather be at the plate? Dunn or Felipe? I want Felipe. These winsharers and vorp stats I don't care about. Watch the game, and tell me what happens. Take any non-Reds fan and have him watch alot of Reds games and he will tell you that our best player is Felipe. My brother is a Sox fan and he says our best player is Lopez.

And yet, sometimes the numbers smack you in the face hard and make you realize that your brain isn't exactly capable of processing all that data accurately...

2005...

Runs Above Replacement Player (Positional Adjusted):

Adam Dunn: +51.7
Ken Griffey Junior: +48.6
Felipe Lopez: +41.4

Now, a high-level offensive RARP Shortstop IS a tougher find than a high-level offensive RARP Left Fielder. True dat.

Here's the defensive value for that trio...

Adam Dunn: +3 Runs Above Replacement (+2 LF, +1 1B)
Ken Griffey Junior: -2 Runs Above Replacement
Felipe Lopez: 0 Runs Above Replacement

That leaves us with Dunn at a +54.7 RARP, Junior at a +46.6 RARP, and Lopez at a +41.4 RARP.

But those are versus "replacement" players (assumed to be the worst player in baseball at the position). So let's look at their Runs Above Position (equals Runs above the average player at the position) offensively...

Dunn: +30.3 RAP
Griffey: +32.1 RAP
Lopez: +23.3 RAP

Now defense...

Dunn: -8 Runs Above Average
Griffey: -16 Runs Above Average
Lopez: -19 Runs Above Average

That leaves us with Dunn being worth 22.2 Runs above the average LF. Griffey is worth about 16 Runs versus the average CF. Lopez was worth about 4.3 Runs more than the average MLB Shortstop in 2005. That's big.

Now, keep in mind that Derek Jeter was Felipe Lopez bad at SS for a long while but was able to justify the position because of his offense. Lopez, as good as he is, isn't prime Jeter-level offensively. Interestingly enough, Jeter has improved dramatically since the Yankees acquired a better Shortstop (A-Rod) to play third base. Go figure. Part of that may be that A-Rod is hiding Jeter's deficiency in moving to his right, but I also have an inkling that Jeter is simply more motivated to hold a prime defensive position with a better player right next to him who could lay claim to in any day.

Of course, Lopez is young and could improve defensively. But he's a big kid who's getting thicker and hasn't yet demonstrated range to his right or the ability to create outs on fielded balls in the "hole". That concerns me. I used to think it was more a footwork issue, but I'm beginning to believe that it's a range issue- i.e. that Lopez simply can't possibly get to those balls in time to enable proper footwork to put him in position to make the throw.

Lopez' arm, while good, isn't great. Simply put, there's a portion of the field in which Lopez can field the ball but can't create Outs. That will show in his Zone Rating over time (and already has) as well as his defensive Runs above Replacement and Average assessments. If those numbers don't go up this season, I'll be full-on with the folks who feel that he should be shifted to 2nd base.

Right now, Lopez isn't the best player on his own team and certainly isn't the best Shortstop in Ohio (Johnny Peralta). If a team comes looking for a Shortstop and decides that they'll give the sun and the moon for Felipe Lopez, I move him yesterday.

And before you mark me up as just another guy who can't figure out talent without the stats, you should know that I've been a STAUNCH Felipe Lopez proponent from the day that trade was made (one of the few here). Dunn is a guy you build around. His skill set and comps are rock solid nigh-guarantees for future Win value.

Lopez is a guy that you hope will significantly improve defensively and, if he doesn't (with Scott Boras as an agent no less), you move out to some team that dramatically overvalues his peak offensive ability in order for you to gain a talent windfall in return. It's why Boston held onto Edgar Renteria (who was always vastly overrated defensively and tanked in 2005) for only a year and then shipped him off to Atlanta for what ended up being one of the most productive Center Fielders in MLB (Coco Crisp).

WVRed
04-11-2006, 07:54 AM
Hell no.

Zito is from California, no way he would sign a LTC in Cincy. Even if he would, the Reds still get ripped off. There is only two players in baseball who I would trade Dunn for: Albert Pujols and Rich Harden.

I could think of a lot more than those two.

bottom_feeder
04-11-2006, 09:29 PM
I probably wouldn't do it. Three years of Dunn is worth more than one year of Zito. Let's hope the Reds break the piggy bank this winter and sign some good pitchers.