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Highlifeman21
04-16-2006, 03:26 PM
Listening to the big one, and I heard these words escape from Marty's mouth...

"I don't know that Adam Dunn will ever be any good with runners in scoring position."

Why is Marty against our best player? Thoughts anyone?

OnBaseMachine
04-16-2006, 03:45 PM
Edit. Dunn is the man.

guttle11
04-16-2006, 04:00 PM
Listening to the big one, and I heard these words escape from Marty's mouth...

"I don't know that Adam Dunn will ever be any good with runners in scoring position."

Why is Marty against our best player? Thoughts anyone?

Dunn isn't the best player, and anyone who thinks that has a very skewed view of baseball. He's a glorified role player. Sure, the guy has tons of power and is probably the guy in the lineup who causes the most concern for opposing pitchers, but he is becoming way too one dimensional.

I'm not going to stand on a strikeout soapbox, but once in a while I'd like to see him learn to choke up and put the ball in play in the right situations. If he could do that, and get his walking eye back, he'd really be one of the best in baseball.

westofyou
04-16-2006, 04:01 PM
He has turned into Dave Kingman on us in the past 5 games or.

Five games, Five Games, five games, everytime he hits a skid his K's go up his BA goes down and everyone ponders and Dave freaking Kingmans name creeps up.

Last year we kicked it around

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35912

FWIW Mike Schmidt age 26 April and May (.164/.253/ .299 67 ab's)(.198/ .294/396 96 ab's)

westofyou
04-16-2006, 04:03 PM
but once in a while I'd like to see him learn to choke up and put the ball in play in the right situations. Paul O'Neil scoffed at that same suggestion when someone said the same thing about Giambi, his retort was, "Jason Giambi got here doing what he does best, asking him to change an approach that works for him is possibly asking him to get out of a comfort zone, and that's not what you want."

Highlifeman21
04-16-2006, 04:07 PM
Dunn isn't the best player, and anyone who thinks that has a very skewed view of baseball. He's a glorified role player. Sure, the guy has tons of power and is probably the guy in the lineup who causes the most concern for opposing pitchers, but he is becoming way too one dimensional.

I'm not going to stand on a strikeout soapbox, but once in a while I'd like to see him learn to choke up and put the ball in play in the right situations. If he could do that, and get his walking eye back, he'd really be one of the best in baseball.


So who's the Reds' best position player? Freel? Lopez? Kearns? EE? Junior?

Apparently I have a very skewed view of baseball since I firmly think Dunn's our best player, and has been for at least the last two seasons, maybe even three.

guttle11
04-16-2006, 04:09 PM
Paul O'Neil scoffed at that same suggestion when someone said the same thing about Giambi, his retort was, "Jason Giambi got here doing what he does best, asking him to change an approach that works for him is possibly asking him to get out of a comfort zone, and that's not what you want."


Precisely. That makes Dunn a glorified role player.

Right now, Adam Dunn is a very good offensive threat but he isn't a complete player, and he shows no signs whatsoever of becoming one. He'll hit his homeruns and be a very good complementary piece, and that's it. Not hardly worth the money he's going to make if you ask me.

He really does have a chance to be as complete a hitter as Pujols or as feared a hitter as Bonds, but he doesn't seem to want to be. He wants to swing hard and put on a show. I don't like that.

guttle11
04-16-2006, 04:12 PM
So who's the Reds' best position player? Freel? Lopez? Kearns? EE? Junior?

Apparently I have a very skewed view of baseball since I firmly think Dunn's our best player, and has been for at least the last two seasons, maybe even three.

Best all-around player? Lopez, and it's not even close.

Please don't get me wrong. Dunn is the best power weapon, but that's not the same as best player. FeLo is the best player and MVP. He does well in all te offensive stats and when the time comes, he can increase the odds of scoring a key run with "smallball" (I hate that term.)

westofyou
04-16-2006, 04:12 PM
Right now, Adam Dunn is a very good offensive threat but he isn't a complete player, and he shows no signs whatsoever of becoming one. He'll hit his homeruns and be a very good complementary piece, and that's it. Not hardly worth the money he's going to make if you ask me.


No, right now he's Harmon Killebrew, Frank Howard or Joe Adcock.

A glorified power hitter and on base machine who plays a corner position and produces a huge amount of runs, if you don't like him because he's not Bobby Tolan or George Bret that's fine.

But there is a place for guys like Dunn.

Just ask Thome.

westofyou
04-16-2006, 04:16 PM
Another thing about Dunn that so often slips through cracks... he's young.

5th most trips to the plate for a Reds player before the age of 26, behind Pinson, Bench, Robby and Hoblitzell (deadball 1stbaseman)

Highlifeman21
04-16-2006, 04:21 PM
Best all-around player? Lopez, and it's not even close.

Please don't get me wrong. Dunn is the best power weapon, but that's not the same as best player. FeLo is the best player and MVP. He does well in all te offensive stats and when the time comes, he can increase the odds of scoring a key run with "smallball" (I hate that term.)


Last year, Lopez was 3rd in both offensive winshares and total winshares, as well as RC behind Dunn and Griffey respectively. I still use winshares and RC as the benchmark for judging a player, and until Lopez challenges for that #1 spot in either offensive winshares or RC, I can't put him any higher on a "best" player list than #2.

As for defensive winshares, Dunn and Lopez both suffer dramatically, as Lopez is arguably one of the worst defensive SS in the entire game, and we all know of Dunn's defensive struggles so far in 2006. I know both of them had less than 3 defensive winshares last year, and I want to say Dunn was even below 2.

Lopez is a pest offensively for opposing pitchers, but he's not in the SS mold of a Tejada/Jeter/ARod, so I don't know how Lopez can compete with Dunn for the title of Best Red.

This isn't a rant to tear down Lopez, but more of a question as to why Dunn's perceived value is less than Lopez?

Believe me, I'm glad we have both on our team, but I think Dunn is more valuable right now. Maybe once we obtain a better defensive SS, or move BP over to SS and Lopez to 2B, then maybe Lopez will fight for that Best Red title.

Matt700wlw
04-16-2006, 04:41 PM
I'm a Dunn fan, I like him, I'm glad they locked him up.

He's 1-15 with RISP so far this season...I'm sorry, but that's not good.

(make that 2-16 after his 2 run HR :))

KronoRed
04-16-2006, 04:56 PM
IMO he's being "coached" to swing more with runners on, pitchers have picked it up and aren't going to throw him anything he can hit if he gets himself out on ball 4.

Oh..and Dunn has been in Marty's doghouse since 2002 ;)

Reds Nd2
04-16-2006, 05:10 PM
Another thing about Dunn that so often slips through cracks... he's young.

Yep and IIRC, he won't won't enter his prime age 27/28 peak years until next season.

2001MUgrad
04-16-2006, 06:36 PM
Adam Dunn is what he is. He is going to hit 50 HR's, have 100 RBI's, Walk 100 times and strike out 150 times. He is the definition of non-clutch.

Last 3 years with RISP.
2004
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG
127 142 62 34 12 0 9 56 48 46 2 0 .239
2005
127 129 71 32 9 0 11 62 51 40 1 1 .248
2006
11 13 6 1 0 0 0 3 2 7 0 0 .077
On the other Hand
Rich Aurilia

2005 RISP
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG
88 108 47 37 10 0 5 54 11 11 2 0 .343

2006
8 8 4 3 0 0 2 7 1 1 0 0 .375

makes you think about who you'd want up to bat in the bottom of the 9th in game 7 of the World Series in a tie game huh??

icehole3
04-16-2006, 06:37 PM
I can't blame Marty anymore.

Dunn is horrible this year. He has turned into Dave Kingman on us in the past 5 games or. I can't believe I just said that but it's true. He is swinging at everything. Just roll him a pitch in the dirt and he'll bite.

Blasphemy...mention Dunn and Kingman in the same sentence will get you in deep doo doo around here. Never ever mention those two together.

:p:

OnBaseMachine
04-16-2006, 06:39 PM
Give me Dunn everytime.

2005-Adam Dunn with RISP

1.042 OPS

That is "clutch".

pedro
04-16-2006, 06:40 PM
makes you think about who you'd want up to bat in the bottom of the 9th in game 7 of the World Series in a tie game huh??

makes me think about who I'd want picking my team.

OnBaseMachine
04-16-2006, 06:44 PM
Blasphemy...mention Dunn and Kingman in the same sentence will get you in deep doo doo around here. Never ever mention those two together.

:p:

There is no comparison between Dunn and Kingman. Adam Dunn is one of the elite hitters in baseball. He walks a lot more than Kingman and he gets on base at a much better clip. Dunn has never posted an OBP below .354. Kingman never posted an OBP above .343.

The only thing I said was, Dunn has been chasing a ton of pitches out of the zone in the last few games and not drawing walks, thus making him a Kingman clone in the last three games.

Dave Kingman was a free-swinging slugger. Adam Dunn is one of the game's elite hitters.

reds44
04-16-2006, 06:46 PM
Honestly

who cares who is in Marty's doghouse? His doghouse means as much as yours and mine.

pedro
04-16-2006, 06:50 PM
I wrote this email to marty today.

Dear Marty,

You consistenty rip on Adam Dunn for being a being a poor hitter with runners in scoring position. During todays' game (sunday 4/16) against the Cardinals you made the following comments.

"I don't know if Dunn will ever be good with RISP"

"Dunn had a problem with RISP last year"

I assume you can read so I'm wondering why you can't seem to find Adam's statistics from last year to support your assertion. Is it because you have a personal agenda against Adam Dunn or because you are just ignorant?

Since you are apparently unable or unwilling to do so yourself I thought I'd forward Dunn's numbers with RISP from last year. I thought they might be a good talking point for you to use when you admit that you don't know what you are talking about.


By Situation AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Scoring Position 129 71 32 9 0 11 62 51 4 40 1 1 .248 .468 .574 1.042

In case no one told you yet OPS is a players slugging percentage plus his on base pecentage. As a point of reference Albert Pujols' OPS for all of last year was 1.039 so as you can see Adam does quite well with RISP despite your constent diatribes to the contrary.

Thanks for "telling it like it is".

Steve Erts
Portland, Oregon

OnBaseMachine
04-16-2006, 06:51 PM
I wrote this email to marty today.


Did Marty cry when Dunn got that "clutch" two run homerun in the 5th inning?

pedro
04-16-2006, 06:52 PM
Did Marty cry when Dunn got that "clutch" two run homerun in the 5th inning?

no. but he wasn't too excited either. he inferred it was wind aided.

Cooper
04-16-2006, 06:53 PM
Marty dint sound happy when Dunn hit the HR.

Cooper
04-16-2006, 06:54 PM
Marty said inferred AD's homerun was wind aided while Kearns was a "shot". AD's HR went farther than AK's IIRC. Marty has a case of the goo over AD.

KronoRed
04-16-2006, 06:55 PM
Marty knows the game Pedro..at least that's what he'd tell you IF he ever wrote back.

Reds Nd2
04-16-2006, 07:01 PM
Marty knows the game Pedro..at least that's what he'd tell you IF he ever wrote back.

I just wonder if Marty has any more room in his doghouse for pedro? :confused:

Thanks for telling it like it really is pedro. :thumbup:

pedro
04-16-2006, 07:03 PM
IIRC he called me a "rube" when he read one of my emails last year.

I was very proud.

johngalt
04-16-2006, 07:22 PM
In 2005, Adam Dunn had 671 plate appearances.

186 of those plate appearances came with runners in scoring position. That accounts for roughly 28% of his plate appearances.

Even if you're making the argument that Dunn chokes in clutch situations with runners in scoring position - a notion I disagree with - do you really believe those 28% of his PAs are more valuable than the other 72% over the course of a full season?

Unfortunately, some people seem to think so.

2001MUgrad
04-16-2006, 08:09 PM
Give me Dunn everytime.

2005-Adam Dunn with RISP

1.042 OPS

That is "clutch".

It looks good to throw that OPS around, but with RISP it means nothing if you aren't knocking the guys in. I'll take Sac Flies from him with a runner on
3rd all day long, in the past he has struck out in those situations. Maybe this year will be different. When you have a guy on 3rd base with less than 2 outs your job as a cleanup hitter is to get that guy home, not work the pitcher for a walk from time to time, and strike out every other time.

I really wish Dunn would be more clutch because I really like Dunner, but what does he have now 7 HR and 11 RBI's?? That is what 2 2run HR's 5 Solo HR's and 2 Sac Flies this year??

johngalt
04-16-2006, 08:12 PM
It looks good to throw that OPS around, but with RISP it means nothing if you aren't knocking the guys in. I'll take Sac Flies from him with a runner on
3rd all day long, in the past he has struck out in those situations. Maybe this year will be different. When you have a guy on 3rd base with less than 2 outs your job as a cleanup hitter is to get that guy home, not work the pitcher for a walk from time to time, and strike out every other time.

I really wish Dunn would be more clutch because I really like Dunner, but what does he have now 7 HR and 11 RBI's?? That is what 2 2run HR's 5 Solo HR's and 2 Sac Flies this year??

It's also good to remember that so far this year he's mostly had guys like Scott Hatteberg and Rich Aurilia hitting behind him. I can't think of too many pitchers who would go after Dunn aggressively with a man on third and one out and Hatteberg in the on-deck circle.

Highlifeman21
04-16-2006, 08:20 PM
Honestly

who cares who is in Marty's doghouse? His doghouse means as much as yours and mine.


Pretty sure the Reds faithful put a lil more stock in Marty's doghouse than yours or mine, IMO. I can't understand for the life of me why a HOF announcer for the Reds can't stand the Reds' best player? To tie 2 threads together, Does Marty have it in for Dunn as much as George Grande has an unhealthy case of manlove for Jim Edmonds?

I think it's a close edge to Marty, as unfortunately the only way I could get the game live today was listening to The Big One and I don't remember 1 good or nice thing he said about Dunn today, and I watched FSN the other night as George was at a loss for words as Edmonds decided to play soccer in CF.

2001MUgrad
04-16-2006, 08:21 PM
With Kearns starting to hit the ball pretty well so far I think I'd probably take my chances with Dunn. EE has been hitting the ball pretty sharply so far just right at the 3B and SS.

Yachtzee
04-16-2006, 08:32 PM
I really wish Dunn would be more clutch because I really like Dunner, but what does he have now 7 HR and 11 RBI's?? That is what 2 2run HR's 5 Solo HR's and 2 Sac Flies this year??

These stats could also point to other possible scenarios.

1. The people batting ahead of him just aren't getting on base enough.
2. Narron has been batting him in a spot where he's just had the bad luck of coming up early in the inning with no one on.

In any case, that's a pretty small sample size. RBI depend a lot on what happens with the guys hitting ahead of you. However, A 1.042 OPS with RISP means he likely does two things well with runners in scoring position:

1. He knocks the hell out of the ball (Can't get credit for a sac fly if it goes out of the park).
2. He gets on base himself, setting the table for the next guy.

SteelSD
04-16-2006, 08:37 PM
It looks good to throw that OPS around, but with RISP it means nothing if you aren't knocking the guys in.

Myth.


I'll take Sac Flies from him with a runner on...

Players can't produce Sac Flies at will any more than they can produce non-DP ground balls.


Maybe this year will be different. When you have a guy on 3rd base with less than 2 outs your job as a cleanup hitter is to get that guy home, not work the pitcher for a walk from time to time, and strike out every other time.

Myth. The player's "job" is to not make an out. Even a more free swinger like Albert Pujols knows that and stated as much after yesterday's game.


I really wish Dunn would be more clutch because I really like Dunner, but what does he have now 7 HR and 11 RBI's?? That is what 2 2run HR's 5 Solo HR's and 2 Sac Flies this year??

And yet, Adam Dunn entered today's game tied for fifth in the NL in Runs Created and finished 9th in 2004 and 7th in 2005.

Doesn't get much more "clutch" than that.

cReds1
04-16-2006, 08:45 PM
It's also good to remember that so far this year he's mostly had guys like Scott Hatteberg and Rich Aurilia hitting behind him. I can't think of too many pitchers who would go after Dunn aggressively with a man on third and one out and Hatteberg in the on-deck circle.

Why not??? The guy strikes out about an average of 1 in 3 times AB. Plus, he has only averaged about 10 IBBs a season or less. In this situation, I think a pitcher will throw to him more than you think. For a power hitter his IBBs are really low, shoot, little Suzuki had double of IBBs last year than he did.

I mean, I see your point in that it would be considered they are throwing around him and he would chalk up a walk, but afraid of him when it is clutch time then I just don't see it.

Raisor
04-16-2006, 08:51 PM
The difference between Dunn hitting .300 with RISP last year and the .249 he did hit was 6 hits. Or about 1 hit a month.

Everyone freaks out about 1 freaking hit a month.

cReds1
04-16-2006, 08:53 PM
Myth.



Players can't produce Sac Flies at will any more than they can produce non-DP ground balls.



Myth. The player's "job" is to not make an out. Even a more free swinger like Albert Pujols knows that and stated as much after yesterday's game.



And yet, Adam Dunn entered today's game tied for fifth in the NL in Runs Created and finished 9th in 2004 and 7th in 2005.

Doesn't get much more "clutch" than that.

They can't produce SAC Flies? Did they forget how to do this along with bunting or do they not want to do it or at least try it? When you mean created, you mean moved the runner into position to score? I don't call this clutch, what is your definition of clutch? Did you mean he placed the runner in position to win the game and it happened by your ranking? His RBI total should explain what is clutch. Well, that is the way I see it. I am sure it does not to you.

2001MUgrad
04-16-2006, 08:58 PM
thats fine Steel. I disagree that Dunn's job is just to simply get on base. We'll never see eye to eye on this.

Redeye fly
04-16-2006, 08:59 PM
I'm not defending Marty, even though I do have very fond memories (and with this team some not so fond ones ;) ) listening to him and Joe.

But the thing that people need to realize when they ask "why does Marty say bad things about Dunn" is that Marty is not a stats guy. He's not paid to be a stats guy. He has a stats guy close to him or with him in the booth. Marty is paid to watch 162 or so games a year and describe the action in every single one of them. If Marty sees Dunn strike out and fail to drive runners in several times, that sticks in his head. Then he can whip out the batting average with runners in scoring position, especially this year, and say Dunn is no good with runners on base and in scoring position.

To the average baseball fan, batting average with runners in scoring position is the stat they're going to look at, and even a .248 average would not be considered very good. Now I know that's not where Dunn's true value lies, nor is it the best way to judge him. I will say that if Dunn is going to get on base via the walk in those situations, then he needs to have adequate protection behind him, or else all in the walks in the world will do him and the Reds absolutely no good. Hopefully Kearns can stay healthy and productive, because he should be batting right behind Dunn every day.

SteelSD
04-16-2006, 09:00 PM
They can't produce SAC Flies? Did they forget how to do this along with bunting or do they not want to do it or at least try it?

Doesn't happen. Hitters cannot hit Sacrifice Flies at will any more than they can avoid Double Play ground balls just by trying really hard.

Happy accidents aren't skill sets.


When you mean created, you mean moved the runner into position to score? I don't call this clutch, what is your definition of clutch? Did you mean he placed the runner in position to win the game and it happened by your ranking? His RBI total should explain what is clutch. Well, that is the way I see it. I am sure it does not to you.

Adam Dunn was worth more Runs offensively than all but six National League players last year. He'll move up the list from 5th after his game today for the 2006 season. That's clutch. Adam Dunn made fewer Outs with RISP and acquired more bases with RISP in 2005 than he did with no one on base in front of him. That's clutch too.

And just so we all realize it- Adam Dunn bats with a Runner is Scoring Position every time he walks to the plate. Solo Home Runs are "clutch" too.

M2
04-16-2006, 09:00 PM
Adam Dunn led the Reds in RBIs w/RISP in 2005.

Right now he's on a pace to score 189 runs and drive in 149. He's hitting over .300. Adam Dunn is in Marty's doghouse because Marty's a grade-A sphincter.

Raisor
04-16-2006, 09:03 PM
To the average baseball fan, batting average with runners in scoring position is the stat they're going to look at, and even a .248 average would not be considered very good. .


People need to strive to be ABOVE average baseball fans. Then they'd see what we have.

Especially in a town where everyone thinks they have the "best fans in baseball".

traderumor
04-16-2006, 09:03 PM
I'm a Dunn fan, I like him, I'm glad they locked him up.

He's 1-15 with RISP so far this season...I'm sorry, but that's not good.

(make that 2-16 after his 2 run HR :))RISP is pretty much a worthless stat. A stat that does not count a double, triple or home run with a runner on first isn't telling you jack.

Yachtzee
04-16-2006, 09:04 PM
Dear Marty,

I've been listening to you for over 30 years and have been a big fan. Lately, I haven't been sure if you were aware of the real problems the Reds seem to have this season. It seems like the Reds are weakest in two areas: 1. Pitching, 2. Defense up the middle. I hope this helps.

Also, could you please leave the Adam Dunn strawman alone for a few days? His stuffing is starting to thin from all the tearing down. Thanks.

Raisor
04-16-2006, 09:05 PM
RISP is pretty much a worthless stat. A stat that does not count a double, triple or home run with a runner on first isn't telling you jack.



You're coming close to stealing my koolaid here you know.

Just sayin.

:devil:

SteelSD
04-16-2006, 09:09 PM
thats fine Steel. I disagree that Dunn's job is just to simply get on base. We'll never see eye to eye on this.

Adam Dunn has two "jobs":

1. Avoid Outs
2. Acquire as many Bases as possible when avoiding an Out

That's how the Reds lead the NL in scoring last season while posting only the 7th highest team Batting Average. It's also how the Reds finished third in Runs with RISP in 2005 while posting the 7th most PA with RISP, the 11th highest team BA with RISP (.258), and struck out more than any other team with RISP.

Out avoidance rate and Base acquistion rate trump Hit acquisition rate every day of the 162-game season. If we'll never see eye to eye on that, it's because your eyes are looking at the wrong things.

2001MUgrad
04-16-2006, 09:12 PM
Ryan Freels job is to get on base anyway he can.

Adam Dunn's job is to knock Ryan Freel in anyway he can.

Raisor
04-16-2006, 09:14 PM
Ryan Freels job is to get on base anyway he can.

Adam Dunn's job is to knock Ryan Freel in anyway he can.


Dunn knocking in Freel is a byproduct. A lineup is a chain. A chain filled with solitary achievements.

It's every player's job to move the chain. That's how runs are created.

2001MUgrad
04-16-2006, 09:16 PM
I wouldn't exactly call it a "Byproduct" unless I'm dealing in terms of fantasy baseball, that is the goal. It doesn't matter how the goal is accomplished.

SteelSD
04-16-2006, 09:18 PM
Ryan Freels job is to get on base anyway he can.

Adam Dunn's job is to knock Ryan Freel in anyway he can.

2005 Cincinnati Reds w/RISP:

Runs Scored: 586 (NL Rank- 3rd)
Plate Appearances: 1,683 (NL Rank- 7th)
OBP: .362 (NL Rank- 3rd)
SLG: .442 (NL Rank- 1st)
BA: .256 (NL Rank- 11th)
Walks: 249 (NL Rank- 2nd)
Strikeouts: 338 (NL Rank- 16th)

PA per BB: 7.22 (NL Rank- 1st)
PA per Base: 2.74 (NL Rank- 1st)

It's staring you in the face but you won't let yourself see it.

Yachtzee
04-16-2006, 09:19 PM
Ryan Freels job is to get on base anyway he can.

Adam Dunn's job is to knock Ryan Freel in anyway he can.

Actually, I believe both have the same job: score runs.

Statistically, it's much easier to score runs by just focusing on getting as many bases as you can than it is to alter your style of hitting depending on what the situation dictates.

The fact of the matter is this: Dunn gets on base and usually gets it in bunches, by hitting doubles and HRs. If he's not getting guys in, he's getting on base to set up the next guy. That scores runs.

M2
04-16-2006, 09:22 PM
Ryan Freels job is to get on base anyway he can.

Adam Dunn's job is to knock Ryan Freel in anyway he can.

Adam Dunn's led the Reds in RBIs two years running and he's the first Reds player to top the 100-RBI mark in two consecutive seasons for the first time in almost two decades. If he stays healthy this season, he'll be the first Reds player to top 100 RBIs in three consecutive seasons in 28 years.

Essentially he's the best Reds RBI man of your lifetime ... and yet you gripe about him.

BTW, if you actually care about RBIs, look at SLG, not BA.

Raisor
04-16-2006, 09:23 PM
I wouldn't exactly call it a "Byproduct" unless I'm dealing in terms of fantasy baseball, that is the goal. It doesn't matter how the goal is accomplished.


Freel's job is the exact same job that Dunn has.

Not make an out/collect as many bases as possible. Stringing those events together is how teams score runs.

For every non-out event the team gets an extra chance at the end of the "chain". The more chances the more runs that are created.

GAC
04-16-2006, 09:24 PM
IMO he's being "coached" to swing more with runners on, pitchers have picked it up and aren't going to throw him anything he can hit if he gets himself out on ball 4.

That's right..... he's getting himself out swinging at ball 4.

Until someone can prove otherwise, I don't think this coaching staff is telling Adam Dunn to change his plate approach (especially with runners on).

Pitchers have learned to punch him inside, and then come low and away (breaking).

Pitchers have adjusted..... Adam needs to adjust.

But overall, and at season's end, Adam Dunn will be fine.

Also - players like Dunn need to be protected in the lineup. I was glad to see them move Kearns up today with Jr's absence. But getting Jr back will help Dunn.

And what is the definition of a "complete" player some seem to be throwing out?

Not many would fit that mold IMO.

flyer85
04-16-2006, 09:40 PM
Listening to the big one, and I heard these words escape from Marty's mouth...

"I don't know that Adam Dunn will ever be any good with runners in scoring position."

Why is Marty against our best player? Thoughts anyone?Adam doesn't fit in Marty's paradigm of what he believes a run producer should be.

So the fact he is top 10 in RBI, 2nd in Runs scored and top 5 in OPS doesn't matter because he has a flaw(doesn't hit well enough with RISP) and that is all Marty chooses to focus on. He focuses on a supposed weakness while ignoring his strengths.

johngalt
04-16-2006, 09:46 PM
Adam doesn't fit in Marty's paradigm of what he believes a run producer should be.

So the fact he is top 10 in RBI, 2nd in Runs scored and top 5 in OPS doesn't matter because he has a flaw(doesn't hit well enough with RISP) and that is all Marty chooses to focus on. He focuses on a supposed weakness while ignoring his strengths.

If Dunn hit .300+ with RISP and chalked up a bunch of sac flies, Marty would call him clutch and couldn't care less what any of his other statistics were. That's the problem with all this talk about "clutch" and "knowing how to play the game."

I truly believe that Marty would rather have someone like Joe Randa or Sean Casey than Adam Dunn any day of the week and that's what is laughable about our Hall of Fame broadcaster.

SteelSD
04-16-2006, 09:46 PM
Adam doesn't fit in Marty's paradigm of what he believes a run producer should be.

So the fact he is top 10 in RBI, 2nd in Runs scored and top 5 in OPS doesn't matter because he has a flaw(doesn't hit well enough with RISP) and that is all Marty chooses to focus on. He focuses on a supposed weakness while ignoring his strengths.

And I think, to be clear, we need to emphasize that Marty's issue is that Dunn doesn't get enough hits (BA) with RISP. Marty holds that opinion because he doesn't understand that Out avoidance and Base acquisition rate are the true drivers of Run scoring- even in RISP situations.

As Raisor noted, Marty is complaining about Dunn lacking one Hit per month without realizing that his other behavior (even w/RISP) more than makes up for that lacking hit.

flyer85
04-16-2006, 09:48 PM
thats fine Steel. I disagree that Dunn's job is just to simply get on base. We'll never see eye to eye on this.the first job of any hitter is to not make an out. After that is to accumulate as many bases as possible.

People walk for two reasons and mostly the first.
1)They take pitches they don't want to hit
2)They take pitches they can't hit

After reading thru the rest of the thread I realize I am quoting Steel. Geez, I'm blushing.

GAC
04-16-2006, 09:50 PM
Marty holds that opinion because he doesn't understand that Out avoidance and Base acquisition rate are the true drivers of Run scoring- even in RISP situations.

Hell! Marty's not the only one who doesn't understand that! :roll:

flyer85
04-16-2006, 09:53 PM
2005 Cincinnati Reds w/RISP:

Runs Scored: 586 (NL Rank- 3rd)
Plate Appearances: 1,683 (NL Rank- 7th)
OBP: .362 (NL Rank- 3rd)
SLG: .442 (NL Rank- 1st)
BA: .256 (NL Rank- 11th)
Walks: 249 (NL Rank- 2nd)
Strikeouts: 338 (NL Rank- 16th)

PA per BB: 7.22 (NL Rank- 1st)
PA per Base: 2.74 (NL Rank- 1st)

It's staring you in the face but you won't let yourself see it.
what is that saying about being able to lead a horse to water ...
:p:

flyer85
04-16-2006, 09:56 PM
I truly believe that Marty would rather have someone like Joe Randa or Sean Casey than Adam Dunn any day of the week and that's what is laughable about our Hall of Fame broadcaster.there is something to be said for scrappy.
Especially when you never played the game and have no idea how hard it is to actually hit a HR.

Team Clark
04-16-2006, 09:56 PM
Five games, Five Games, five games, everytime he hits a skid his K's go up his BA goes down and everyone ponders and Dave freaking Kingmans name creeps up.

Last year we kicked it around

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35912

FWIW Mike Schmidt age 26 April and May (.164/.253/ .299 67 ab's)(.198/ .294/396 96 ab's)

I really liked Dave Kingman's baseball cards. Big, scary looking guy.

flyer85
04-16-2006, 09:58 PM
And I think, to be clear, we need to emphasize that Marty's issue is that Dunn doesn't get enough hits (BA) with RISP. Marty holds that opinion because he doesn't understand that Out avoidance and Base acquisition rate are the true drivers of Run scoring- even in RISP situations.Go ahead and say it, the issue is Marty's ignorance. A statistical revolution has happened in the last 25 years and it has passed right on by someone who neither understands it premises or even cares to try and learn. Anecdotal evidence is so much better.

flyer85
04-16-2006, 10:02 PM
I'm much more bothered by Dunn's lack of prowess as an OF and his delayed move to first base. The offensive ability I don't give a second thought. At this point I realize he is what he is as a hitter. A lot of people are frustrated by Dunn as a hitter because he doesn't fit their paradigm of how a great offensive player should hit.

Cyclone792
04-16-2006, 11:26 PM
Go ahead and say it, the issue is Marty's ignorance. A statistical revolution has happened in the last 25 years and it has passed right on by someone who neither understands it premises or even cares to try and learn. Anecdotal evidence is so much better.

Marty pretty much tells everyone on the broadcast what he thinks, and his reasoning for telling everyone that he's right and they're wrong is because he's seen so many years of baseball. It's unfortunate too, because he could do so many great things for the Reds as a franchise and the fans if he actually embraced the recent statistical revolution instead of fighting it head on.

Steve can only push the barrier so far, otherwise he might be out of a job if he openly questioned Marty.

2001MUgrad
04-16-2006, 11:34 PM
Marty knows nothing about baseball does he?? Nor does Jerry Narron or anyone else affiliated with the Reds. I guess my question would be is that since everyone here is such the expert why aren't any posters on this board baseball GM's?? Hmm..

But, while on the topic. i can agree to a point with what you are saying. A batters job is to get on base that is correct if everyone leads off the inning. Every at bat is not equal and every situation is not equal. Its impossible to quantify every single individual situation in baseball. Sometimes a walk is as good as a hit, sometimes it isn't. An example of when it isn't is when you have a runner on 3rd base and walk. That is in no way shape or form equal to hit, yet the king stat OPS says that it is.
Ultimately every hitter wants to hit a HR every time he bats, but that isn't possible. Baseball is a team game made up of 9 individuals working collectively to score more runs than the other team. I hate to make it sound simple, but while batting the goal is to score runs. If someone is on 3B you get that guy in anyway you can. If it means a Sac Flay or a base hit. Unless the bases are loaded with a guy a 3rd and less than 2 outs a Sac Fly would be a better AB than a walk.
Get 'em on, Get 'em over, Get 'em in. As simple as that sounds thats baseball. It doesn't matter how you accomplish the "Get 'em in" goal, that is the ultimate goal. It doesn't matter how much you want to break it down and study what happens after it happens, the goal is to score the run. Everything else is the byproduct.

indyred
04-16-2006, 11:37 PM
Being new to the team and area..........who else has been in Marty's doghouse and who have been his favorites..........I did met him and Stewart on the Reds caravan at the Louisville Slugger museum and he was really nice......seems the people there just gushed over him.......

M2
04-16-2006, 11:51 PM
Get 'em on, Get 'em over, Get 'em in. As simple as that sounds thats baseball. It doesn't matter how you accomplish the "Get 'em in" goal, that is the ultimate goal. It doesn't matter how much you want to break it down and study what happens after it happens, the goal is to score the run. Everything else is the byproduct.

And the Reds did it better than any team in the NL last year with OB and SLG instead of BA.

And Adam Dunn led the team in getting on, getting in himself and getting others in as well. He also led the team in those categories in 2004. Mostly likely he'll lead the team in those categories in 2006.

Anyway, if what you care about is scoring runs, and make no mistake that it's what the vast majority of people trying to explain OPS to you care primarily about, then you need ditch your BA fascination. It's worthless compared to OB when it comes to getting 'em on and it's trivial compared to SLG in getting 'em over and in.

2001MUgrad
04-16-2006, 11:54 PM
No no, I agree. I'm not using BA as the basis for anything. I do feel that a single in most situations is better than a walk, other than that I do agree. I don't think combining SLG and OB is the best either. But, yes I do agree, I'm not really using BA as an argument. Honestly I'm not using any % or value in my basis. I don't care if it all equals .000 if the run gets scored thats all that matters.

pedro
04-17-2006, 12:01 AM
2001MUgrad, I think you are focusing too much on the value of scoring a single run. Sure a groundball might score a guy from third where a walk might not, but a player taking a walk in that situation instead of making an out may in fact lead to more than one run scoring during that inning. I'll take the non out event over an out any time as it increases the chance of scoring more runs.

westofyou
04-17-2006, 12:07 AM
Get 'em on, Get 'em over, Get 'em in. A by product of an era that runs were at a premium.

Once the reality of the offense in todays game comes to surface you have to realize that "Get 'em on, Get 'em over, Get 'em in" represents a small portion of the scoring that occurs day in and day out.

Sure there are players for that and at times the situation calls for that approach.

Unfortunatley Adam Dunn isn't the player that usually is called on for that.

Mike Schmidt played in the "Get 'em on, Get 'em over, Get 'em in" era and had a grand total of 16 sacs, that's one every 522 ab's and none in his last 4639.

Dunn gets more of them in then most, but he'll never be a guy who goes the other way for his paycheck.

flyer85
04-17-2006, 12:18 AM
The Cards really used that 3G strategy for their win today.

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 12:21 AM
I agree with Marty. Dunn is a terrible situational hitter, a terrible fielder, and a terrible baserunner. He has a nice OPS though which makes him untouchable to certain posters...:rolleyes:

westofyou
04-17-2006, 12:23 AM
He has a nice OPS though which makes him untouchable to certain posters...Which we can assume doesn't include you.

flyer85
04-17-2006, 12:25 AM
It's just unfortunate that OPS is that stat that mostly closely correlates with runs scored for a team.

westofyou
04-17-2006, 12:27 AM
It's just unfortunate that OPS is that stat that mostly closely correlates with runs scored for a team.
Well it ain't coaching hyberbole. Even though some posters seem to think so.

Go figure.

wheels
04-17-2006, 12:27 AM
I agree with Marty. Dunn is a terrible situational hitter, a terrible fielder, and a terrible baserunner. He has a nice OPS though which makes him untouchable to certain posters...:rolleyes:

:barf:

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 12:28 AM
Yeah but was it Casey Stengal who said "I don't like them fellas that drive in two and let in three."

flyer85
04-17-2006, 12:28 AM
Well it ain't coaching hyberbole. Even though some posters seem to think so.

Go figure.We just don't get it. Anecdotal evidence of those possessed of secret knowledge is much more reliable.

westofyou
04-17-2006, 12:30 AM
Yeah but was it Casey Stengal who said "I don't like them fellas that drive in two and let in three."
Yeah, when talking about key positions yeppers, but the leftside of the spectrum is for making offensive hay... just ask former platooning corner OF Casey Stengal.

TeamBoone
04-17-2006, 12:36 AM
Pitchers have learned to punch him inside, and then come low and away (breaking).

Pitchers have adjusted..... Adam needs to adjust.


Actually, pitchers have learned they can throw one just below his knees and have it called a strike.

flyer85
04-17-2006, 12:39 AM
Yeah but was it Casey Stengal who said "I don't like them fellas that drive in two and let in three."that would more aptly describe the currently injured CF.

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 12:42 AM
Look-- I guarantee that as poor a fielder and as one dimensional a hitter Dunn is, he will not last long on a Krivsky/Narron team. He is the type of player a middle market team cannot afford, both money wise (eventually) and in the type of game the Reds must play to win. The Reds can not be like the Red Sox and play average defense and have huge home run hitters to make up for it. That type of baseball is just too expensive, as HR hitters make the huge dollars. The Reds need crack defense in the OF with hitters that hit 15-35 hrs.-- players that make 5-10 MM a year. Dunn will eventually command 15-18 MM a year because of his hr numbers, but he has huge holes in his game. The Reds just don't have the bucks to make up for those holes and need more balanced players. This is what made the Twins successful, and why Krivsky was hired. The Reds can get highest value for Dunn now, and I can see him getting traded before the year is out. Don't get me wrong, I like Dunn as a personality, I just don't think he's going to fit into the Reds long term plans.

flyer85
04-17-2006, 12:43 AM
None of the Reds likely fit. Lopez is as good as gone as well because he won't be signing with the Reds past his arbitration years.

wheels
04-17-2006, 12:45 AM
Look-- I guarantee that as poor a fielder and as one dimensional a hitter Dunn is, he will not last long on a Krivsky/Narron team. He is the type of player a middle market team cannot afford, both money wise (eventually) and in the type of game the Reds must play to win. The Reds can not be like the Red Sox and play average defense and have huge home run hitters to make up for it. That type of baseball is just too expensive, as HR hitters make the huge dollars. The Reds need crack defense in the OF with hitters that hit 15-35 hrs.-- players that make 5-10 MM a year. Dunn will eventually command 15-18 MM a year because of his hr numbers, but he has huge holes in his game. The Reds just don't have the bucks to make up for those holes and need more balanced players. This is what made the Twins successful, and why Krivsky was hired. The Reds can get highest value for Dunn now, and I can see him getting traded before the year is out. Don't get me wrong, I like Dunn as a personality, I just don't think he's going to fit into the Reds long term plans.

Well, lucky for me, the Reds, and the rest of his fans, Wayne Krivsky doesn't seem to agree with your opinion.

Considering the fact that his first move as GM was to get him signed, and recently he stated that he considered Dunn to be the guy he was building around.

We can criticize alot of his other moves, but I think he's handled the Adam Dunn situation very well.

wheels
04-17-2006, 12:46 AM
None of the Reds likely fit. Lopez is as good as gone as well because he won't be signing with the Reds past his arbitration years.

Boras.:bang:

flyer85
04-17-2006, 12:47 AM
Well, lucky for me, the Reds, and the rest of his fans, Wayne Krivsky doesn't seem to agree with your opinion.

Considering the fact that his first move as GM was to get him signed, and recently he stated that he considered Dunn to be the guy he was building around.

We can criticize alot of his other moves, but I think he's handled the Adam Dunn situation very well.He really has no other position player to build around at the moment. I realize it's hard to believe but at only 26 Dunn is highly likely to get better.

flyer85
04-17-2006, 12:49 AM
Boras.:bang:Exactly. When a Scott Boras client stays with a small market team instead of heading to the free agent market it will be the first.

When you sign on with Boras you are shouting loudly that it's all about the money and that you will be going to the highest bidder at the earliest opportunity.

westofyou
04-17-2006, 12:52 AM
Look-- I guarantee that as poor a fielder and as one dimensional a hitter Dunn is, he will not last long on a Krivsky/Narron team. He is the type of player a middle market team cannot afford, both money wise (eventually) and in the type of game the Reds must play to win.

Yet it was Wayne who signed Dunn to a multi year contract as soon as he came aboard.

Oh well, I guess he hates him.

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 12:54 AM
I'm not critcizing Krivsky. He did great to sign Dunn...it makes him more tradeable. And how many times have we heard certain players are being "built around" only to see them traded when the right deal presents itself? I maintain that the Reds will not keep a player whose game is as imbalanced as Dunn's. We'll see...

KronoRed
04-17-2006, 12:55 AM
Oh well, I guess he hates him.
He hates Marty and signed him to make Marty mad

westofyou
04-17-2006, 12:58 AM
He did great to sign Dunn...it makes him more tradeable. Not really, his option for a 3rd year applies only to the Reds.

Plus if he's such a bad fit for the Reds and is so one dimensional, who the hell would want him?

Caveat Emperor
04-17-2006, 01:01 AM
Anyway, if what you care about is scoring runs, and make no mistake that it's what the vast majority of people trying to explain OPS to you care primarily about, then you need ditch your BA fascination. It's worthless compared to OB when it comes to getting 'em on and it's trivial compared to SLG in getting 'em over and in.

Question (ot of genuine curiousity and a desire to grow my knowledge of the game) -- Judging value based on OPS assumes an equal "value"/"weight" on OBP and SLG. A player can mask deficencies in one area by being extremely proficient in other.

Is there a lean to the statistic one way or the other? Is it slightly more valuable that a player be able to acquire bases (SLG) or that a player avoid outs (OBP)?

As far as Marty goes, I'm convinced this argument goes back to Dunn striking out too much and the belief in "putting the ball in play" being paramount. Marty will excuse a lot of failings in a player as long as they avoid the out via K -- which is why he hasn't (and won't) turn on a plyer like Hatteberg as long as he keeps making contact.

Dunn was blessed with a gifted ability to judge the strikezone. He knows better than almost any other player in baseball the difference between a ball and a strike and the difference between a pitch he can hit and a pitch he cannot. I want Adam Dunn swinging at pitches he thinks he can drive and laying off pitches he fells he cannot or are balls. If that results in lots of walks with RISP, so be it. It's a preferable outcome to him attempting to hit a pitch he knows he can't handle by changing his plate approach.

M2
04-17-2006, 01:06 AM
Look-- I guarantee that as poor a fielder and as one dimensional a hitter Dunn is, he will not last long on a Krivsky/Narron team. He is the type of player a middle market team cannot afford, both money wise (eventually) and in the type of game the Reds must play to win. The Reds can not be like the Red Sox and play average defense and have huge home run hitters to make up for it. That type of baseball is just too expensive, as HR hitters make the huge dollars. The Reds need crack defense in the OF with hitters that hit 15-35 hrs.-- players that make 5-10 MM a year. Dunn will eventually command 15-18 MM a year because of his hr numbers, but he has huge holes in his game. The Reds just don't have the bucks to make up for those holes and need more balanced players. This is what made the Twins successful, and why Krivsky was hired. The Reds can get highest value for Dunn now, and I can see him getting traded before the year is out. Don't get me wrong, I like Dunn as a personality, I just don't think he's going to fit into the Reds long term plans.

This would be the guy that Krivsky signed to a three-year deal as his first act as a GM?

Narron's the guy who isn't going to last. Get used to Dunn being around.

Also, Dunn's a great value for the Reds because he's allows the team to carry cheaper offense around him. You can play a middle IF for his glove. Put competent (not great) bats around him and he'll elevate the group into being one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. He's a disruptive force.

Plus, and I can't emphasize this enough, he's just now entering his prime. If someone wants to make the case that the Reds shouldn't get tied down to Dunn past age 30, I can see that argument, but this guy for the next five years is the kind of player who can carry a discount team full of solid, not spectacular players to another level.

Also, anyone trying to fix the Reds defense from the corners in is going about things bassackwards. Until the team installs a CF with some range and figures out how to make Felipe Lopez part of a better fielding keystone I can't even begin to care about Dunn's defensive limitations. Truth be told, 1B is probably where Dunn needs to go. He's shown some ability over there in the past and he makes a great target.

Highlifeman21
04-17-2006, 01:08 AM
I agree with Marty. Dunn is a terrible situational hitter, a terrible fielder, and a terrible baserunner. He has a nice OPS though which makes him untouchable to certain posters...:rolleyes:


Any evidence to back any of that up?

Dunn's a career .975 fielder, which isn't the best, but certainly ain't the worst. He still currently has exactly 34 Assists to 34 Errors in the OF, so while that's not gonna make anyone forget about Roberto Clemente, his bat more than makes up for whatever perceived defensive ineptitudes he may or may not have.

Terrible baserunner? 41 outta 57 = 72% success rate stealing, if my math's correct. And how many former college pocket QBs do you know that are nimble? Believe me, I'd love to watch Peyton Manning run the bases. I bet you would too.

As for terrible situational hitter, plenty of people have posted his stats for the various situations, and while he might be batting something like .248, he still has an OPS of like 1.042 for RISP.

You're right, he's absolutely horrible. Marty's my newest hero.

ochre
04-17-2006, 01:10 AM
Question (ot of genuine curiousity and a desire to grow my knowledge of the game) -- Judging value based on OPS assumes an equal "value"/"weight" on OBP and SLG. A player can mask deficencies in one area by being extremely proficient in other.

Is there a lean to the statistic one way or the other? Is it slightly more valuable that a player be able to acquire bases (SLG) or that a player avoid outs (OBP)?

As far as Marty goes, I'm convinced this argument goes back to Dunn striking out too much and the belief in "putting the ball in play" being paramount. Marty will excuse a lot of failings in a player as long as they avoid the out via K -- which is why he hasn't (and won't) turn on a plyer like Hatteberg as long as he keeps making contact.

Dunn was blessed with a gifted ability to judge the strikezone. He knows better than almost any other player in baseball the difference between a ball and a strike and the difference between a pitch he can hit and a pitch he cannot. I want Adam Dunn swinging at pitches he thinks he can drive and laying off pitches he fells he cannot or are balls. If that results in lots of walks with RISP, so be it. It's a preferable outcome to him attempting to hit a pitch he knows he can't handle by changing his plate approach.
Generally OBP is valued more out of the two. Not creating an out being marginally more beneficial than gaining the extra base(s). I think woy brought up one time something about it being somewhat era specific as well.

M2
04-17-2006, 01:13 AM
Is there a lean to the statistic one way or the other? Is it slightly more valuable that a player be able to acquire bases (SLG) or that a player avoid outs (OBP)?

There's been arguments that OPS should be weighted toward the O by mulitplier of anywhere from 1.4 to 2. It makes sense. That certainly creates more run-scoring opportunities for a team, not only more frequent chances, but also more big inning chances.

That said, you need to have some cleaners. Personally I like to see SLG- and BA-weighted players (e.g. Aaron Boone and Sean Casey) in the 5, 6 and 7 slots. Get the bases filthy in front of them and that makes what they can do with their bats all the more dangerous.

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 01:15 AM
He's still cheap for the contract even without the option. As I said before, the teams that would love Dunn are those that have the money to play mediocre defense and hire a slew of bashers and the top free agent pitchers every year-- Boston, NY, Chicago. Pedros, Clemenses, and hr hitters fill seats, yield huge TV contracts. They can afford to play that game and win. The Reds can't. They have to do it like the Twins, expect to see the Reds populated with Torii Hunter types rather than Adam Dunns.

Highlifeman21
04-17-2006, 01:21 AM
I'm not critcizing Krivsky. He did great to sign Dunn...it makes him more tradeable. And how many times have we heard certain players are being "built around" only to see them traded when the right deal presents itself? I maintain that the Reds will not keep a player whose game is as imbalanced as Dunn's. We'll see...


Who was tabbed as "build around this guy" and then traded? Care to enlighten the masses?

And you've yet to say how/why Dunn's game is imbalanced

If Dunn is imbalanced, I'd LOVE to know what balance might look like

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 01:22 AM
Highlifeman--
Are you contending that Dunn is an average fielder and baserunner?

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 01:26 AM
Were you around in the Bowden years? Plenty of "build around" players there (Aaron Boone, Pokey Reese, for starters) See Sean Casey for recent evidence.

M2
04-17-2006, 01:26 AM
He's still cheap for the contract even without the option. As I said before, the teams that would love Dunn are those that have the money to play mediocre defense and hire a slew of bashers and the top free agent pitchers every year-- Boston, NY, Chicago. Pedros, Clemenses, and hr hitters fill seats, yield huge TV contracts. They can afford to play that game and win. The Reds can't. They have to do it like the Twins, expect to see the Reds populated with Torii Hunter types rather than Adam Dunns.

And the Twins, perhaps more than any other team I've ever seen, have a desperate need for an Adam Dunn type. That team's going to miss its window due to offensive incompetence.

Highlifeman21
04-17-2006, 01:37 AM
Highlifeman--
Are you contending that Dunn is an average fielder and baserunner?


I'm contending that Dunn's defense and baserunning mean so absolutely very little in the grand scheme when accounting for his hitting ability that it doesn't matter.

Dunn hit 40 HR last year, made 9 errors and was caught stealing twice. If he made 8 errors and only had 1 CS, would that push him over the 45 mark? the 50 mark?

There is ZERO correlation to offensive ability at the plate compared to defensive ability or baserunning ability. All I do know is that in 4 full seasons (subtracting 2001), Dunn's averaged 106 BB per year, and every year I haven't given any thought to his defensive ability or baserunning ability.

Look at Dunn in the big picture, and forget his LF struggles opening day.

Highlifeman21
04-17-2006, 01:42 AM
Were you around in the Bowden years? Plenty of "build around" players there (Aaron Boone, Pokey Reese, for starters) See Sean Casey for recent evidence.

Who in their right mind was ever on record saying we were going to build around Aaron Boone, Pokey Reese or Sean Casey?! Only thing I would build around them would be 4 walls, lock them up and lose the key. In that short list, you've named 1 of the worst Reds EVER (Reese) , a league average player at best made into a fan favorite b/c his dad was the manager (Boone) and the last one was one of the most overrated Reds EVER. Congrats, that takes talent.

Casey's problem was that he was slow, wasn't all that great defensively, and lacked power.

Reese's problem was that he was all glove and nothing else.

Boone's problems are too numerous to list. IIRC, the best thing Aaron Boone had going for him is that we got Brandon Claussen for him.

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 01:49 AM
I have forgotten his struggles opening day. I like Dunn. But he is a BELOW average fielder and baserunner. He fails to get to balls, and makes baserunning gaffes that drive Marty nuts. And I agree with him. Numbers won't show that. And those mistakes can rob a team of momentum and take them out of rallies. Numbers won't show that either. I would say that Dunn is near Pujols in power, but in the other aspects of the game Dunn can't touch him. Would you say that Dunn is near the player Pujols is?

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 01:50 AM
Jim Bowden on Boone Reese and Casey, and O'brien on Casey

pedro
04-17-2006, 01:57 AM
Albert Pujols is one of the top 5 players of the last 40 years so the fact that Dunn isn't as good as Albert bears little relevance to this discussion.

Caveat Emperor
04-17-2006, 01:58 AM
I would say that Dunn is near Pujols in power, but in the other aspects of the game Dunn can't touch him. Would you say that Dunn is near the player Pujols is?

Nobody is near the player Pujols is. The man is a freak of nature who, if he continues his career path, has the opportunity to be one of the top 5 players to ever put on a jersey.

It's a silly comparison to make anyway because both are great players. Saying Adam Dunn isn't Albert Pujols is like telling Stephen Hawking he's no Albert Einstein.

Highlifeman21
04-17-2006, 01:59 AM
I have forgotten his struggles opening day. I like Dunn. But he is a BELOW average fielder and baserunner. He fails to get to balls, and makes baserunning gaffes that drive Marty nuts. And I agree with him. Numbers won't show that. And those mistakes can rob a team of momentum and take them out of rallies. Numbers won't show that either. I would say that Dunn is near Pujols in power, but in the other aspects of the game Dunn can't touch him. Would you say that Dunn is near the player Pujols is?


Short answer: Yes

Extended answer: Pujols is a horrible baserunner, and he plays 1B now, so you can't compare them defensively. When Dunn has played 1B, he's actually been very good defensively there, which is why most of this board has repeatedly said we need Dunn @ 1B to improve defensively, and have Denorfia play in the OF, most likely CF, move Jr to LF. Power wise, it's a push, they are equal. They are both upper tier, young, stud hitters. Pujols hits for higher average, that's it.

Cyclone792
04-17-2006, 02:02 AM
Would you say that Dunn is near the player Pujols is?

Albert Pujols is on a pace that could very well land him among the top 25 players of ALL-TIME, and may go down as quite possibly the greatest first baseman in National League history. The only other currently active player still in his peak years that can boast the same argument about landing in the top 25 all-time is Alex Rodriguez. The other currently active players (Bonds, Maddux, and Clemens, if you still count him as active) have just about wrapped their careers up.

Bringing up Albert Pujols as a comparison to Dunn when attempting to point out Dunn's shortcomings is about as far reaching as it gets. Albert Pujols has a chance to rank among the top two dozen or so players in the history of the game. Just because Dunn may not be that great doesn't mean that he's not an outstanding player in his own right.

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 02:04 AM
Hmm seems like Highlfeman and Caveat need to take the debate from here...

Highlifeman21
04-17-2006, 02:05 AM
Jim Bowden on Boone Reese and Casey, and O'brien on Casey


And we see where those decisions have gotten those esteemed GMs and the respective players....

Boone is trying to give rebirth to his career in Cleveland

Reese IIRC is out of baseball after walking out of ST this year

Casey's hurt for 6-8 b/c he's old and overpaid by the Pirates now instead of the Reds

Would YOU honestly label any of those players as guys to build around?

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 02:13 AM
No. My point is, they were labeled as such. Doesn't mean I agree with the label. As I don't with Dunn.

Johnny Footstool
04-17-2006, 02:18 AM
The "Dunn Sucks" threads seem to be blooming early this year...

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 02:22 AM
Your panties seem to be quite knotted up Caveat...are you reading my posts or just upset when the name Pujols is mentioned? In terms of raw power Dunn IS up there with Pujols-- he could be in the same league as him if the other aspects of his game were better. But they're not and he hasn't improved them in 4 ML seasons. This is what peeves Marty and what will make Dunn get traded away -- because the Reds can't play a game of raw power and compete with the big spenders. They need more balanced players. This is not to say Dunn wouldn't fit perfectly into another type of team (and another type of budget) Comprende?

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 02:23 AM
It's not a "Dunn sucks" thread.

Caveat Emperor
04-17-2006, 02:23 AM
The "Dunn Sucks" threads seem to be blooming early this year...

I've been a posting member of RedsZone for coming up on a year and a half... and for the life of me I can't figure out how the team can score 8 runs and the only one being beaten to death is Adam Dunn. Not just here -- but in the game broadcasts by Marty and by other people in other places after other games just like this one.

I guess the pitching has been so bad for so long that everyone just takes it as a given that the bullpen sucks and the starters are mediocre.

kyred14
04-17-2006, 02:31 AM
Yeah, Dunn does suck. I mean if you didn't count that whole not making outs and aquiring alot of bases while not making them, just imagine how bad he would suck!! This thread sucks, but its good comic relief after a rough day for a Reds fan.

M2
04-17-2006, 02:32 AM
No. My point is, they were labeled as such. Doesn't mean I agree with the label. As I don't with Dunn.

No one ever seriously believed Casey, Boone and Reese were really "build around" players. They were role players designed to fill in around a Jr./Larkin core.

Dunn is a build around player. He's an offensive powerhouse. If you can't tell the difference between role players and a guy with mammoth OB and SLG skills then you need to re-assess how you evaluate players.

Fact of the matter is, the Reds can improve the defense and put some trust in younger guys like Felipe Lopez, Edwin Encarnacion and Chris Denorfia AND have Adam Dunn be part of the mix. It's not an either/or proposition. If the Reds can keep Dunn around for the next five years, they'll have one of the most devastating hitters in the game bolstering all of the other things they do well. Get the middle IF and CF fixed up defensively, build a pitching staff and have the offense revolve around one of the game's most productive hitters. Now, THAT is a winning strategy.

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 02:33 AM
This article might shed some light on the subject (statheads might like it too...) http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060416/SPT04/604160403/1071

M2
04-17-2006, 02:58 AM
This article might shed some light on the subject (statheads might like it too...) http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060416/SPT04/604160403/1071

Perfect example of why it makes sense to fix the defense UP THE MIDDLE where most of the plays occur and look to move Dunn to what should be his optimum position (first base).

Cyclone792
04-17-2006, 03:11 AM
Your panties seem to be quite knotted up Caveat...are you reading my posts or just upset when the name Pujols is mentioned? In terms of raw power Dunn IS up there with Pujols-- he could be in the same league as him if the other aspects of his game were better. But they're not and he hasn't improved them in 4 ML seasons. This is what peeves Marty and what will make Dunn get traded away -- because the Reds can't play a game of raw power and compete with the big spenders. They need more balanced players. This is not to say Dunn wouldn't fit perfectly into another type of team (and another type of budget) Comprende?

Not to be harsh or anything, Wheelhouse, but you seem to think that balanced and lethal hitters such as Albert Pujols must grow on trees. Unfortunately they don't, and trying to compare Dunn to Pujols is an all-around flawed argument.

Honestly, I'd like to see a list of even five hitters in the history of the game that were as balanced and lethal as Albert Pujols.

How should we define balance? How about batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage relative to the league average? Seems simple enough, since Dunn's low batting average has to be the point of contention for pointing out Dunn's imbalance compared to Albert Pujols. Obviously I personally feel that on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more important than batting average, but that's ok. If you want balance and want Dunn to hit for a batting average like Albert Pujols, then we'll include batting average.

I'll help you out a bit. Use this site to look it up: http://www.baseball-reference.com ... and compare players to Pujols' figures, relative to league strength, of course:

Pujols' relative BA = 125 (.332 vs. .265 league average)
Pujols' relative OBP = 123 (.416 vs. .337 league average)
Pujols' relative SLG = 145 (.621 vs. .427 league average)

So there ya go, do five hitters even exist that can top Pujols in overall balance with BA, OBP and SLG? My guess is no, but you're more than welcome to take a look since you seem to believe it's easy to find outstanding hitters who are also as balanced as Albert Pujols.

I'll even help you out some more and tell you that Shoeless Joe Jackson, Ted Williams and Rogers Hornsby are three guys that do at least match or exceed Pujols in that overall balance. All among some of the greatest hitters the game has ever seen. Not bad.

And since I'm a nice guy, I'll help you out yet again. Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Eddie Collins, Lou Gehrig, Mike Schmidt, Joe Morgan, Mel Ott, Frank Robinson, Nap Lajoie, Rickey Henderson, Joe DiMaggio, Eddie Mathews and Pete Rose all come up short in matching Pujols' balance across batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, along with likely every other hitter who has ever played.

Good luck finding any others.

Caveat Emperor
04-17-2006, 03:32 AM
Your panties seem to be quite knotted up Caveat...are you reading my posts or just upset when the name Pujols is mentioned? In terms of raw power Dunn IS up there with Pujols-- he could be in the same league as him if the other aspects of his game were better. But they're not and he hasn't improved them in 4 ML seasons. This is what peeves Marty and what will make Dunn get traded away -- because the Reds can't play a game of raw power and compete with the big spenders. They need more balanced players. This is not to say Dunn wouldn't fit perfectly into another type of team (and another type of budget) Comprende?

Without getting into personal assualts, if the Reds can't play the type of game Adam Dunn plays (avoiding outs, advancing bases), then they should take up tiddlywinks.

It's not about "Raw Power" -- Wily Mo Pena was raw power with little to no aptitude for actually getting on base. It's raw power combined with on base ability and plate discipline, and it's a combination that is absolutely devestating to opposing pitching. The evidence is before your own eyes; look at the way the Reds systematically dismantle starting pitching they face. Starters labor as Reds like Adam Dunn take pitch after pitch, get on base, and drive runs, hit home runs. 4 and 5 innings into a ballgame, the starter is gassed and more runs come in as he starts throwing fatigued pitches.

That's Reds baseball.

And the only thing stopping the Reds from having a team that put the fear of God into opponents is the fact that they've been so dreadfully bad at identifying pitching talent for the past 20 years. If the Reds could just identify league average pitching instead of dropping $20 million on stiffs like Eric Milton, we'd likely be talking about Adam Dunn as the centerpiece of a playoff offense right now. The Reds can play (and win) with Adam Dunn in their lineup if they just did something about the horrendous black hole of talent on the mound and behind the center field fence.

The Reds lost 15 games last year despite scoring 6 runs or more. Reverse 10 of those and the Reds have a winning record. Reverse all 15 of them and the Reds are in firm contention for the Wild Card late into the season. That's an Adam Dunn powered offense being betrayed by a Ramon Ortiz led starting staff and a David Weathers led bullpen

Wheelhouse
04-17-2006, 04:13 AM
Interesting post Cyclone-- but I don't think your idea of what balance is and mine will mesh at all. It's odd: you chose the three hitting stats you value most and call that a balanced player. It is getting a little cultish and creepy the way you SABR guys spout this singular mania about a certain set of stats. Bad defense is like porn; I know it when I see it. Dunn is a bad defender--it's been four years, he consistently makes mental errors in the field and on the basepaths that someone with his experience should not make. These problems offset some of his offensive stats and make him a less valuable player than you think he is. You can throw out as many decimals and numbers and Billy Beanisms you want, but I've watched Dunn play alot, and that's my opinion, your new-jack stats notwithstanding.

SteelSD
04-17-2006, 05:34 AM
Interesting post Cyclone-- but I don't think your idea of what balance is and mine will mesh at all. It's odd: you chose the three hitting stats you value most and call that a balanced player. It is getting a little cultish and creepy the way you SABR guys spout this singular mania about a certain set of stats. Bad defense is like porn; I know it when I see it. Dunn is a bad defender--it's been four years, he consistently makes mental errors in the field and on the basepaths that someone with his experience should not make. These problems offset some of his offensive stats and make him a less valuable player than you think he is. You can throw out as many decimals and numbers and Billy Beanisms you want, but I've watched Dunn play alot, and that's my opinion, your new-jack stats notwithstanding.

Hyperbole is never an argument.

It's about time you figured that out.

Cyclone792
04-17-2006, 09:17 AM
Interesting post Cyclone-- but I don't think your idea of what balance is and mine will mesh at all. It's odd: you chose the three hitting stats you value most and call that a balanced player. It is getting a little cultish and creepy the way you SABR guys spout this singular mania about a certain set of stats. Bad defense is like porn; I know it when I see it. Dunn is a bad defender--it's been four years, he consistently makes mental errors in the field and on the basepaths that someone with his experience should not make. These problems offset some of his offensive stats and make him a less valuable player than you think he is. You can throw out as many decimals and numbers and Billy Beanisms you want, but I've watched Dunn play alot, and that's my opinion, your new-jack stats notwithstanding.

You must not have read my post very closely if you think I believe batting average is one of the stats I value most, though you're quick to label me cultish and creepy. The ad hominem is appreciated.

You're more than welcome to actually attempt to quantify his defense and baserunning alongside his offense, but it plainly appears that you still prefer to linger around in exaggeration and have no real interest in quantifying anything.

Raisor
04-17-2006, 09:21 AM
I didn't want to start another thread for this. If you squint a little, it fits:

I love it when irony is so darn ironic...The mantra for the past few years has been that the Reds need to K less. Last year, as everyone knows, they K'd more then any other team, but still scored more runs then any other NL team. This year, they're about 4th in both catagories.

Here's the ironic part. The Braves currently have both K'd and scored more runs then any other NL team.

membengal
04-17-2006, 09:37 AM
It is disheartening, the lengths at which some go to denigrate one of the better players in baseball. And unseemly.

Baseball is a game built around failure. I don't understand why people don't grasp that. The best players minimize the failure. Dunn is one of those players. Instead of dwelling on the times he fails, why can those same people not embrace the many many many times he succeeds?

By the way, Albert Pujols failed all over himself Friday night in a game the Cards lost 1-0. He sucks, right?

flyer85
04-17-2006, 09:59 AM
It is getting a little cultish and creepy ... You can throw out as many decimals and numbers and Billy Beanisms you want, but I've watched Dunn play alot, and that's my opinion, your new-jack stats notwithstanding.I think we have found the cult and the keeper of the secret knowledge.

johngalt
04-17-2006, 10:21 AM
I think we have found the cult and the keeper of the secret knowledge.

And your evil new-jack stats are no match for the eyes of the keeper.

Falls City Beer
04-17-2006, 10:26 AM
That someone actually wastes his time attacking the offense of this club (Marty) says all you need to know about the strength of his argument.

RFS62
04-17-2006, 10:27 AM
And your evil new-jack stats are no match for the eyes of the keeper.



This confirms my suspicion that Bob Boone is behind the sabr movement. Talk about your double agents - whoa.

ochre
04-17-2006, 10:33 AM
This confirms my suspicion that Bob Boone is behind the sabr movement. Talk about your double agents - whoa.
Are you saying he "bats for the other team"?

westofyou
04-17-2006, 10:41 AM
Bad defense is like porn; I know it when I see it.
That's funny, I was thinking the exact same thing about bad baseball analysis.

RFS62
04-17-2006, 10:43 AM
Are you saying he "bats for the other team"?


No, just that his whole Gene Mauch thing was a brilliant ruse. He used it to drive people to sabr.

Wheelhouse became an unwitting accomplice in Boone's evil plan.

Johnny Footstool
04-17-2006, 10:44 AM
It's not a "Dunn sucks" thread.

It's not? Sure looks like one.

Just another attempt to make Dunn some kind of poster boy for all the "evils" of sabrmetrics.

paintmered
04-17-2006, 10:45 AM
Alright. Let's get this topic back on track and leave the personal stuff out of it.

registerthis
04-17-2006, 10:46 AM
That someone actually wastes his time attacking the offense of this club (Marty) says all you need to know about the strength of his argument.

...because, apparently, it isn't enough that this team led the entire league in Runs Scored last year. It's that they didn't lead the entire league by ENOUGH.

Johnny Footstool
04-17-2006, 10:54 AM
...because, apparently, it isn't enough that this team led the entire league in Runs Scored last year. It's that they didn't lead the entire league by ENOUGH.

Clearly, those runs weren't Win Efficient.

BRM
04-17-2006, 11:06 AM
Can someone explain to me why it's more important to fix poor defense in LF than poor defense in CF, SS, and 2B?

So Dunn has "flaws" in his game. What current Reds player doesn't? Adam Dunn has to be the most unappreciated player in MLB, by fans and the broadcast booth.

wheels
04-17-2006, 11:11 AM
Can someone explain to me why it's more important to fix poor defense in LF than poor defense in CF, SS, and 2B?

So Dunn has "flaws" in his game. What current Reds player doesn't? Adam Dunn has to be the most unappreciated player in MLB, by fans and the broadcast booth.

It all starts in the booth.

When a guy got in Harry Caray's doghouse in his St.Louis days, he was as good as gone.

Marty does the same thing.

indyred
04-17-2006, 11:17 AM
Just curious....who has Marty run out of town............

Jpup
04-17-2006, 11:25 AM
It all starts in the booth.

When a guy got in Harry Caray's doghouse in his St.Louis days, he was as good as gone.

Marty does the same thing.

who has he ran off?

westofyou
04-17-2006, 11:26 AM
Ran off?

No one.. treated like crap publically in the booth?

You can start with Willie Greene.

wheels
04-17-2006, 11:37 AM
Lenny Harris.

Falls City Beer
04-17-2006, 11:40 AM
It's all about setting the tone for the culture surrounding the team. Marty's not the biggest or the most important arbiter of opinion surrounding the Reds, but he's up there, unfortunately.

big boy
04-17-2006, 11:40 AM
I may have overlooked it but I have yet to see a quote attributed to Marty regarding Dunn that is false. Can someone please provide it?

westofyou
04-17-2006, 11:44 AM
I may have overlooked it but I have yet to see a quote attributed to Marty regarding Dunn that is false. Can someone please provide it?
Just tune in the game and wait... it will come.

It's like the tide.

M2
04-17-2006, 11:44 AM
Can someone explain to me why it's more important to fix poor defense in LF than poor defense in CF, SS, and 2B?

Apparently there is no answer for this. There's certainly no rational reason for it.

The sensible way to fix the defense is to address the spots where a positive change can lead to the biggest turnaround and the sensible way to build the team is to let the best offensive player you've developed since Frank Robinson to have his prime for you and not someone else.

westofyou
04-17-2006, 11:45 AM
God knows the 65 Twins worried about Killebrews defense

Chip R
04-17-2006, 11:49 AM
I may have overlooked it but I have yet to see a quote attributed to Marty regarding Dunn that is false. Can someone please provide it?

"I don't know that Adam Dunn will ever be any good with runners in scoring position."

Raisor
04-17-2006, 11:52 AM
"I don't know that Adam Dunn will ever be any good with runners in scoring position."




"This is the song that doesn't end. Yes it goes on and on my friends. Some people started singing it not knowing what it was, and they'll continue singing it forever just because This is the song that doesn't end...."

gonelong
04-17-2006, 11:53 AM
"I don't know that Adam Dunn will ever be any good with runners in scoring position."

If a thousand old beliefs were ruined in our march to truth we must still march on. --Stopford Brooke

GL

flyer85
04-17-2006, 12:13 PM
I may have overlooked it but I have yet to see a quote attributed to Marty regarding Dunn that is false. Can someone please provide it?I can give you one that was an indirect slap at Dunn and a big one that shows incredible bias. In spring training Marty said that Rich Aurilia was the 2nd best player on the Reds in 2005 and then he emphasized the Jr was the best. A nice slap at Felipe as well.

johngalt
04-17-2006, 12:48 PM
I can give you one that was an indirect slap at Dunn and a big one that shows incredible bias. In spring training Marty said that Rich Aurilia was the 2nd best player on the Reds in 2005 and then he emphasized the Jr was the best.

Of course it was Aurilia. He hit .343 with RISP and provided "veteran leadership" and "played the game the right way."

Don't let all his other stats and his constant whining about playing time tell you otherwise.

westofyou
04-17-2006, 12:49 PM
Of course it was Aurilia. He hit .343 with RISP and provided "veteran leadership" and "played the game the right way."

Don't let all his other stats and his constant whining about playing time tell you otherwise.
I'll give Rich this... he can grow facial hair faster than most men.

flyer85
04-17-2006, 12:50 PM
I'll give Rich this... he can grow facial hair faster than most men.and has a hot wife

BRM
04-17-2006, 12:53 PM
I'll give Rich this... he can grow facial hair faster than most men.

Maybe that makes him more intimidating.

big boy
04-17-2006, 01:14 PM
In spring training Marty said that Rich Aurilia was the 2nd best player on the Reds in 2005 and then he emphasized the Jr was the best.

I really can't imagine Marty (or anyone) saying that RA is the 2nd best player on the Reds in 2005. It sounds like you heard that out of context.

big boy
04-17-2006, 01:17 PM
Lopez is arguably one of the worst defensive SS

Lopez is one of the worst? This year? I would be interested in seeing the list and his place on it if you have it.

flyer85
04-17-2006, 01:24 PM
I really can't imagine Marty (or anyone) saying that RA is the 2nd best player on the Reds in 2005. It sounds like you heard that out of context.Marty is the one lacking context.

MWM
04-17-2006, 01:25 PM
I really can't imagine Marty (or anyone) saying that RA is the 2nd best player on the Reds in 2005. It sounds like you heard that out of context.

Nope. It was clear as day. His exact words were something to the effect of, "Next to Junior, Aurilia had the best year of any Red last year." There was no mistaken what he meant.

Reds Nd2
04-17-2006, 01:41 PM
Lopez is one of the worst? This year? I would be interested in seeing the list and his place on it if you have it.

2005 N.L. Qualified SS Zone Rating


Jack Wilson, Pit .884
Neifi Perez, ChC .882
Adam Everett, Hou .875
Omar Vizquel, SF .872
Khalil Greene, SD .860
Rafael Furcal, Atl .858
J.J. Hardy, Mil .848
Jimmy Rollins, Phi .847
Alex Gonzalez, Fla .846
Felipe Lopez, Cin .836
David Eckstein, StL .833
Jose Reyes, NYM .821
Royce Clayton, Ari .815
Cristian Guzman, Was .804

big boy
04-17-2006, 01:47 PM
Wilson has booted 3 already...Fucal has booted 4. These guys are better than Lopez now (not 2005)?

Yachtzee
04-17-2006, 01:47 PM
Nope. It was clear as day. His exact words were something to the effect of, "Next to Junior, Aurilia had the best year of any Red last year." There was no mistaken what he meant.

I heard it too. He didn't hedge it whatsoever.

westofyou
04-17-2006, 01:50 PM
Wilson has booted 3 already...Fucal has booted 4. These guys are better than Lopez now (not 2005)?
The best player in a nine is the player that makes the most good plays in a match, not the one who commits the fewest errors.

Henry Chadwick 1870

Johnny Footstool
04-17-2006, 01:51 PM
Nope. It was clear as day. His exact words were something to the effect of, "Next to Junior, Aurilia had the best year of any Red last year." There was no mistaken what he meant.

I heard him say that when Aurilia came to bat.

westofyou
04-17-2006, 01:53 PM
I heard him say that when Aurilia came to bat.
He told me at a keg party in the woods... I remember it because Wishing You Were Hear by Chicago was playing in the background... Marty loves the band Chicago.

big boy
04-17-2006, 01:57 PM
The best player in a nine is the player that makes the most good plays in a match, not the one who commits the fewest errors.


That is all the proof I need that Lopez is the worst SS in the game.

Thanks.

westofyou
04-17-2006, 02:02 PM
That is all the proof I need that Lopez is the worst SS in the game.

Thanks.No more proof than 3 errors by Jack Wilson (who is a way better fielder than Lopez at SS)

big boy
04-17-2006, 02:05 PM
No more proof than 3 errors by Jack Wilson (who is a way better fielder than Lopez at SS)

At least I am quanitifying in some way that he is better than both Wilson and Furcal. By at least one measure (errors), he is better and that cannot be disputed.

pedro
04-17-2006, 02:05 PM
Wilson has booted 3 already...Fucal has booted 4. These guys are better than Lopez now (not 2005)?

You can't really judge improvement in defense of the span of 10 or so games. The sample size is to small. Is it possible that Lopez' defense will improve? Yes. Is it possible to tell this by counting errors over a 10 game span? Absolutely not.

big boy
04-17-2006, 02:07 PM
You can't really judge improvement in defense of the span of 10 or so games. The sample size is to small. Is it possible that Lopez' defense will improve? Yes. Is it possible to tell this by counting errors over a 10 game span? Absolutely not.

All true...I am merely proposing that Lopez is far better than last year.

pedro
04-17-2006, 02:08 PM
All true...I am merely proposing that Lopez is far better than last year.

I hope so but I honestly don't see how you can make a rational assessment about that at this point.

westofyou
04-17-2006, 02:09 PM
At least I am quanitifying in some way that he is better than both Wilson and Furcal. By at least one measure (errors), he is better and that cannot be disputed.
Ok, Wilson has a RF of 4.53 and Lopez has one of 3.55

big boy
04-17-2006, 02:11 PM
I hope so but I honestly don't see how you can make a rational assessment about that at this point.

Someone else called him one of the worst in the game. I was trying to determine where that came from. If that is based solely on 2005 stats, then so be it.

big boy
04-17-2006, 02:14 PM
Ok, Wilson has a RF of 4.53 and Lopez has one of 3.55

So he gets one more chance per game? I'm sold.

Johnny Footstool
04-17-2006, 02:17 PM
He told me at a keg party in the woods... I remember it because Wishing You Were Hear by Chicago was playing in the background... Marty loves the band Chicago.

Chicago, huh? Sounds like a heckuva party.

Cyclone792
04-17-2006, 02:17 PM
Someone else called him one of the worst in the game. I was trying to determine where that came from. If that is based solely on 2005 stats, then so be it.

That's because he was among the worst in the game in 2005. Nd2 already posted qualified range figures, and here's a few more defensive metrics:

According to Pinto's PMR, Lopez in 2005 was at circa -20 runs above average defensively.
According to BP's fielding runs above average, Lopez in 2005 was at -19 runs above average.
According to The Fielder's Bible, Lopez ranked 25th out of 30 shortstops.
According to defensive win shares, Lopez in 2005 had 2.6 defensive win shares, good for 29th among shortstops.

When every defensive metric out there shows Lopez to have significant negative value defensively, then chances are he's just a bad shortstop. And like pedro said, you can't make any type of assessment of Lopez's defensive numbers in 2006 so far because of the tiny sample size.

big boy
04-17-2006, 02:22 PM
That's because he was among the worst in the game in 2005. Nd2 already posted qualified range figures

Yeah...this is well-covered at this point. Geez...I was not annointing him as the next coming of Ozzie Smith.

Reds Nd2
04-17-2006, 02:25 PM
Someone else called him one of the worst in the game. I was trying to determine where that came from. If that is based solely on 2005 stats, then so be it.

It didn't come from the stats, it came from his defensive play in the field. He did improve from a .819 ZR in 2004 to the .836 in '05, so there is hope that he can continue to improve his defense. You just can't make that assumption using 104 innings played this season as definitive proof that he's improved. As pedro's pointed out, the sample size is too small to be of any significance.

big boy
04-17-2006, 02:28 PM
It didn't come from the stats, it came from his defensive play in the field. He did improve from a .819 ZR in 2004 to the .836 in '05, so there is hope that he can continue to improve his defense. You just can't make that assumption using 104 innings played this season as definitive proof that he's improved. As pedro's pointed out, the sample size is too small to be of any significance.

I am merely proposing that he is improved. We can revisit this at the end of the year.

The next thing you're going to tell me is that Derek Jeter is bad, also.

Reds Nd2
04-17-2006, 02:33 PM
I am merely proposing that he is improved. We can revisit this at the end of the year.

The next thing you're going to tell me is that Derek Jeter is bad, also.

No. You can look it up this time. Here's the link for ZR.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=7&season=2005&seasonType=2&split=82&sortOrder=true&sortColumn=zoneRating&qualified=1

Cyclone792
04-17-2006, 02:33 PM
Yeah...this is well-covered at this point. Geez...I was not annointing him as the next coming of Ozzie Smith.

You asked for data that quantifies Lopez's defense, and data was provided.


The next thing you're going to tell me is that Derek Jeter is bad, also.

Jeter has improved somewhat the last few years, but before 2004 he was beyond bad defensively.

Reds Nd2
04-17-2006, 02:38 PM
Jeter has improved somewhat the last few years, but before 2004 he was beyond bad defensively.

Which coincides with A-Rods arrival in Gotham. I'm curious about how much of Jeter's improvement can be attributed to this?

big boy
04-17-2006, 02:41 PM
You asked for data that quantifies Lopez's defense, and data was provided.


I provided data also. He has made one less error than Wilson and two less then Furcal.

big boy
04-17-2006, 02:42 PM
Which coincides with A-Rods arrival in Gotham. I'm curious about how much of Jeter's improvement can be attributed to this?

Can we give Lopez a pass because his 3rd basemen is no Arod?

Jpup
04-17-2006, 02:44 PM
I provided data also. He has made one less error than Wilson and two less then Furcal.

Lopez isn't in the same league as Furcal. Looking at the stats and/or just watching them play should show you that.

Caveat Emperor
04-17-2006, 02:48 PM
I provided data also. He has made one less error than Wilson and two less then Furcal.

Errors are a poor metric for judging defensive aptitude in isolation because they only quantify how well a player plays on balls they actually manage to place themselves in a position to make a play on.

An error puts a runner on base, but a shortstop or 2nd baseman who is unable to get a to a ball puts a runner on just as surely by letting a ball go for a base hit.

The problem I have with most defensive metrics is that they introduce the element of subjectivity into the equation by making assumptions about balls that weren't played that "should have been played." It'd be like keeping a stat on balls in a player's "hitting zone" that get fouled off instead being pulled for base hits and then constructing a model of how frequently hitters miss "their pitches" -- an interesting stat, but one of limited true value due to lack of true objectivity in measurement (since the determination of what a pitch in their hitting zone is a matter of subejctive interpretation).

That's not to say they're altogether not useful -- I just don't personally place the level of faith in them that I do other statistical information. Until there are better methods of measurement, this is one area where you've really got to follow the old cliches and just watch players play in addition to looking at the data.

Reds Nd2
04-17-2006, 03:08 PM
Can we give Lopez a pass because his 3rd basemen is no Arod?

In his limited playing time so far, going back to last season, Encarnacion has shown he has some range at 3B. If having a rangey 3B somehow limits the defensive liabilities of Lopez, then yes, but only because of his offensive potential and a lack of better options at the position. But remember, having a great 3B doesn't automatically make the SS better, it only limits the ineffectiveness of said SS.

pedro
04-17-2006, 03:08 PM
Can we give Lopez a pass because his 3rd basemen is no Arod?

nope. I doubt Arod has much more range than EE which is how Arod helps Jeter.

big boy
04-17-2006, 03:23 PM
having a great 3B doesn't automatically make the SS better, it only limits the ineffectiveness of said SS.

It would make his range factor lower, correct?

Reds Nd2
04-17-2006, 03:47 PM
It would make his range factor lower, correct?

Range Factor measures the balls that a fielder makes a play on. Reducing the number of those plays will lower his RF. RF is a pretty icky stat to use to judge a players defensive prowess, but you want a higher RF and not a lower one.

aodaniel
04-17-2006, 03:56 PM
So who's the Reds' best position player? Freel? Lopez? Kearns? EE? Junior?

Apparently I have a very skewed view of baseball since I firmly think Dunn's our best player, and has been for at least the last two seasons, maybe even three.

Remember when Dunn first came to the bigs? He killed pitching at the AA, AAA, and even the majors that year, hitting over .300 at each minor league level and hitting a combined 50 homeruns. He kept it up until the allstar break of the next season at the major league level, hitting over .300 for the first half of the season. Then after the break he had a horrible second half as far as batting average goes, and he's hit well below .300 ever since. Seems like he got caught up in the glory associated with the long ball and swings for the fences every time now.

Roy Tucker
04-17-2006, 04:00 PM
Hey, what's going on here. We are supposed to be ragging on Dunn.

Please change the title of this thread to "Why isn't Lopez in Marty's doghouse?"

Thank you.

KronoRed
04-17-2006, 04:02 PM
Please change the title of this thread to "Why isn't Lopez in Marty's doghouse?"

The answer to that is obvious

His bat avg is higher.

registerthis
04-17-2006, 04:04 PM
"Fewer errors" don't mean squat when the player committing fewer errors is doing so at least in part because he simply doesn't get to as many balls as his counterparts.

Using errors alone, Junior would still be among the elite CF'ers in baseball...problem is, he isn't getting errors because he isn't getting to balls. Hard to make an error on a ball you never reach.

RFS62
04-17-2006, 04:05 PM
Anybody remember Tony Perez at third base?

westofyou
04-17-2006, 04:07 PM
Anyone remember how Marty used to pound on Chris Sabo's baserunning?

Heath
04-17-2006, 04:08 PM
Can we give Lopez a pass because his 3rd basemen is no Arod?

Well before ARod, Jeter's infield partners on the left side were Wade Boggs, Scott Brosius, Robin Ventura, and Aaron Effin' Boone (Red Sox Term).

So Sakrete has faster moving potential then those guys.

Back to topic - Marty's being Marty. He can rag on anyone who wears the Reds Jersey. Marty was enamored that Pete Rose would work has hard about baseball as anyone with the least talent. Adam Dunn is a laid-back, hangin' out with boys, easy-going type who isn't ruffled that he K's a ton but has the knack of placing a baseball into airspace. Marty has confused personality types and baseball players. That's why Marty gives Adam all the business, but a guy like Rich Aurilia who has limited talent but had some decent work skills gets the free pass from Brennaman.

flyer85
04-17-2006, 04:10 PM
Range Factor measures the balls that a fielder makes a play on. Reducing the number of those plays will lower his RF. RF is a pretty icky stat to use to judge a players defensive prowess, but you want a higher RF and not a lower one.RF is can be highly dependent on what type of staff you have(gb/fb) in correlation with whether you are an IF or OF. There can be a lot of noise in RF because of that.

Dewan's Fielding Bible is a very good place to start for defensive statistical information but even the best data still has noise at this point. A lot of people are working hard at removing as much noise as possible but it is still a work in progress.

RANDY IN INDY
04-17-2006, 04:32 PM
Getting back to Marty, no matter how much Marty rags or doesn't rag on a particular ballplayer, it doesn't change what they are, any more than someone's views on this forum make a player better or worse than they are.

In the scheme of things, I don't think it matters what Marty or any of us think of a certain player. A players performance on the field is all that matters and the baseball people in the front office and around the league are going to make the decisions pertaining to that player, not Marty or any of us. Last time I checked, Marty Brenneman was not making player decisions for the Cincinnati Reds, nor was I aware that he had any input in such decisions.

Numbers people are sure giving a lot of credence to someone who is not so enamored with the numbers, when in fact, I don't think he really influences anyone that really matters in the evaluation of a ballplayer. Everyone is entitled to believe what ever they want to, but the only folks that really matter are the baseball people who make decisions for the Cincinnati Reds. I don't think they are being influenced by Marty or the average fan, or, as not to insult anyone, the so called "superior fan" on this message board.

Heath
04-17-2006, 04:36 PM
Getting back to Marty, no matter how much Marty rags or doesn't rag on a particular ballplayer, it doesn't change what they are, any more than someone's views on this forum make a player better or worse than they are.

In the scheme of things, I don't think it matters what Marty or any of us think of a certain player. A players performance on the field is all that matters and the baseball people in the front office and around the league are going to make the decisions pertaining to that player, not Marty or any of us. Last time I checked, Marty Brenneman was not making player decisions for the Cincinnati Reds, nor was I aware that he had any input in such decisions.

Numbers people are sure giving a lot of credence to someone who is not so enamored with the numbers, when in fact, I don't think he really influences anyone that really matters in the evaluation of a ballplayer. Everyone is entitled to believe what ever they want to, but the only folks that really matter are the baseball people who make decisions for the Cincinnati Reds. I don't think they are being influenced by Marty or the average fan, or, as not to insult anyone, the so called "superior fan" on this message board.

Randy - I think the above's a great point - but I think to the people on this board is that the "common fan" might interpret Marty's rants as "truth" to the point of where the "common fan" may stay away from the ball park and not help with the Cincinnati Reds marketing, ticket sales, etc.

big boy
04-17-2006, 04:37 PM
That's why Marty gives Adam all the business, but a guy like Rich Aurilia who has limited talent but had some decent work skills gets the free pass from Brennaman.

Could it be as simple as RA has a much higher ba with risp? I know...Dunn will have a higher obp with risp and ba is nothing compared to obp. How many runs will Dunner drive in with his anemic risp ba, though? He could always walk in a run when the bases are loaded while RA slaps a 2 run single, I suppose. No, I am not saying RA is better than Dunner.

Heath
04-17-2006, 04:40 PM
Could it be as simple as RA has a much higher ba with risp? I know...Dunn will have a higher obp with risp and ba is nothing compared to obp. How many runs will Dunner drive in with his anemic risp ba, though? He could always walk in a run when the bases are loaded while RA slaps a 2 run single, I suppose. No, I am not saying RA is better than Dunner.

If Adam Dunn's anemic RISP (which is has been highly mis-construed as a fact, rather than line-up placement, IMO) is the only deteremental part of his offensive capabilities, I'll take it.

He isn't Mickey Tettleton, and he isn't Dave Kingman. Get over it. And enjoy the "Adam Dunn Experience" as long as you can.

Reds Nd2
04-17-2006, 04:41 PM
RF is can be highly dependent on what type of staff you have(gb/fb) in correlation with whether you are an IF or OF. There can be a lot of noise in RF because of that.

Dewan's Fielding Bible is a very good place to start for defensive statistical information but even the best data still has noise at this point. A lot of people are working hard at removing as much noise as possible but it is still a work in progress.

I haven't picked it up yet. Is it going to be published each season like James' Handbooks?

big boy
04-17-2006, 04:42 PM
If Adam Dunn's anemic RISP (which is has been highly mis-construed as a fact, rather than line-up placement, IMO) is the only deteremental part of his offensive capabilities, I'll take it.

He isn't Mickey Tettleton, and he isn't Dave Kingman. Get over it. And enjoy the "Adam Dunn Experience" as long as you can.


Just explaining why Marty calls out Dunner. The simple fact is, he does not get too many hits when there are runners in scoring position.

M2
04-17-2006, 04:46 PM
Could it be as simple as RA has a much higher ba with risp? I know...Dunn will have a higher obp with risp and ba is nothing compared to obp. How many runs will Dunner drive in with his anemic risp ba, though? He could always walk in a run when the bases are loaded while RA slaps a 2 run single, I suppose. No, I am not saying RA is better than Dunner.

If you want RBIs then pay attention to SLG, not BA. Wade Boggs, Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn were never great RBI men even though they're some of the best BA hitters in modern history.

Andruw Jones led the NL in RBIs last season even though he only had a .263 BA. Vinny Castilla led in RBIs in 2004 with a .271 BA Preston Wilson led the year before despite a .282 BA. Now obviously racking up RBIs has a lot to do with having the opportunities presented to you. You need ducks on the pond. Yet even with ducks on the pond, none of those three were driving in gobs of runs with batting average. They plated all those runs thanks high SLGs.

RANDY IN INDY
04-17-2006, 04:47 PM
Randy - I think the above's a great point - but I think to the people on this board is that the "common fan" might interpret Marty's rants as "truth" to the point of where the "common fan" may stay away from the ball park and not help with the Cincinnati Reds marketing, ticket sales, etc.

I think that is a stretch. The Cincinnati Reds are bigger than Adam Dunn, Marty Brenneman, or any of us. I find it hard to believe that the pure conjecture about Marty's comments about Adam Dunn keeping enough people away from the ballpark to amount to a hill of beans to be anything more than a wild rant and dislike for Marty. That animosity, in itself is OK if a person feels that way, but why make up an argument that has no base in fact to support it?

westofyou
04-17-2006, 04:49 PM
The simple fact is, he does not get too many hits when there are runners in scoring position.And he walks more... maybe they're not throwing him squat with runners on? It minimizes the damage.

BTW Aurilia's pre Reds RISP line doesn't shine as brightly as the torch that he has as a Red.

.269/.338/.401 That's in 660 ab's.... but hey if we want to look at all the data on one side of the coin we have to look on the other one as well.

MWM
04-17-2006, 04:49 PM
I really hate the term (yes, I'm using the word hate) "runners in scoring position." It's something became part of baseball vernacular in the olden days and is never going to leave. And it's given so much more relevance than it warrants simply because it's something that people have heard since they were young (usually from the Marty's of the world). I wish the term would just go away.

big boy
04-17-2006, 04:49 PM
If you want RBIs then pay attention to SLG, not BA.

Exactly...that explains how Dunn can drive in over 100 with a poor ba with risp.

If player a hits a solo homer in the 2nd to make it 1-0, that is good. If player b hits a clutch single to drive in the winning run in the 9th, that is also good. Which one will make Marty raise his voice the most? This thread is about Marty, correct?

MWM
04-17-2006, 04:54 PM
Andruw Jones led the NL in RBIs last season even though he only had a .263 BA.

That can't possibly be true, M2. Andruw Jones' BA with RISP last year was only .244. Clearly, Aurilia was more clutch than Jones.

big boy
04-17-2006, 04:54 PM
And he walks more... maybe they're not throwing him squat with runners on? It minimizes the damage.

BTW Aurilia's pre Reds RISP line doesn't shine as brightly as the torch that he has as a Red.

.269/.338/.401 That's in 660 ab's.... but hey if we want to look at all the data on one side of the coin we have to look on the other one as well.


Don't include me in the RA fan club. I am trying to explain why Marty says, accurately, that Dunn doesn't hit so well with risp. Obp is nice but when you leave the risp chances to lesser players in the lineup, how is that a good thing?

M2
04-17-2006, 04:56 PM
Exactly...that explains how Dunn can drive in over 100 with a poor ba with risp.

If player a hits a solo homer in the 2nd to make it 1-0, that is good. If player b hits a clutch single to drive in the winning run in the 9th, that is also good. Which one will make Marty raise his voice the most? This thread is about Marty, correct?

Unfortunately, Marty also will rave more about a clutch single in the 3rd than he will about a two-run walkoff in the ninth dependent on who gets the hits. In fact he'll go out of his way to make the point that the late homer would have meant nothing if not for the earlier single. With Marty, credit for things done right all boils down to whether you're on his naughty or nice list ... and that's why he's such a pud.

MWM
04-17-2006, 04:57 PM
Don't include me in the RA fan club. I am trying to explain why Marty says, accurately, that Dunn doesn't hit so well with risp. Obp is nice but when you leave the risp chances to lesser players in the lineup, how is that a good thing?

Would you rather than Dunn swings at pitches out of the strike zone? That's the argument you're positioning. You're saying him taking walks in those situations is not a good thing because it leaves runners on for lesser hitters. The only alternative to him taking those walks is to swing at bad pitches. I'd rather have a lesser hitter swinging at strikes than Dunn swinging at balls.

SteelSD
04-17-2006, 05:02 PM
Don't include me in the RA fan club. I am trying to explain why Marty says, accurately, that Dunn doesn't hit so well with risp. Obp is nice but when you leave the risp chances to lesser players in the lineup, how is that a good thing?

As avoiding Outs (OBP) is THE primary hitter function regardless of situation, Marty is incorrect any and every time he says that Adam Dunn doesn't "hit" with RISP.

Secondly, taking what the pitcher is giving you is key to capitalizing on Run Scoring chain events. Pitchers are obviously scared of Adam Dunn with ducks on the pond this season. You can smell it and see it in every junk pitch they throw him, yet Dunn's primary issue this year is that he refuses to take the Walks being offered him.

There's no one on the Reds capable of adequately protecting Adam Dunn. He is THE guy to be pitched around and he's allowing pitchers to do that this season so far. Problem is that he's doing it by getting himself out while being pitched around. All that does is transfer a RISP opportunity to the hitter behind him- but now there's one more Out and one fewer baserunner. If you think transferring a RISP opportunity to a worse hitter is bad with one fewer Out and one more baserunner, then how is the above alternative any better?

big boy
04-17-2006, 05:02 PM
Would you rather than Dunn swings at pitches out of the strike zone?

No...I saw him do that on St. Louis a few times with bad results. He is who he is. I am trying to explain why Marty gets frustrated with Dunner.

Cyclone792
04-17-2006, 05:03 PM
But Marty watches the games, and he knows what he sees. The rest of us cannot possibly watch every pitch of all 162 games so we cannot possibly see everything that Marty is seeing ... when he says that Rich Aurilia is a better hitter than Adam Dunn, we must be believe him, because he's watching the games ...


One absolutely cannot tell, by watching, the difference between a .300 hitter and a .275 hitter. The difference is one hit every two weeks. It might be that a reporter, seeing every game the team plays, could sense the difference over the course of the year if no records were kept, but I doubt it . . . the difference between a good hitter and an average hitter is simply not visible. -- Bill James, 1977 Baseball Abstract

Oops, there goes the theory that you can determine which players have the best hitting results simply by watching them play.

big boy
04-17-2006, 05:05 PM
Marty is incorrect any and every time he says that Adam Dunn doesn't "hit" with RISP.

Uh...Marty would be correct as Dunner's risp ba is .125. With runners on, his ba is .091 and obp is .185. How can you defend that?

Patrick Bateman
04-17-2006, 05:07 PM
Uh...Marty would be correct as Dunner's risp ba is .125. With runners on, his ba is .091 and obp is .185. How can you defend that?

Uh... small sample size. His career stats are much more important than a 12 game span.

big boy
04-17-2006, 05:10 PM
Uh... small sample size. His career stats are much more important than a 12 game span.

On the plus side is that Dunner is hitting over .300. Marty should like that.

Chip R
04-17-2006, 05:13 PM
No...I saw him do that on St. Louis a few times with bad results. He is who he is. I am trying to explain why Marty gets frustrated with Dunner.

I agree. But Marty is the one who has been harping on Dunn to expand his strike zone and swing at pitches out of the strike zone, i.e. "He's not paid to walk." Then when Dunn expands the strike zone and swings at bad pitchers with runners on, Marty goes off on him. Dunn can't win for losing as far as Marty is concerned.

Cyclone792
04-17-2006, 05:14 PM
Uh...Marty would be correct as Dunner's risp ba is .125. With runners on, his ba is .091 and obp is .185. How can you defend that?

Run production in an offense works by avoiding outs (OBP) and acquiring bases (SLG). The combination of those two factors is the primary component of actual run scoring. Teams with the best collection of hitters that avoid outs and acquire bases are the teams that lead the league in scoring. Batting average is only a component of each of those, and nowhere near the entire story. Batting average with RISP is an even smaller component of it all.

Seriously, this isn't about carefully selecting specific stats just to make Dunn look good. There are stats that correlate very well to run scoring (OBP+SLG) and there are stats that correlate very poorly with run scoring (BA w/RISP). Nobody is pulling this out of the ground; it's a proven fact with substantial evidence to back it up.

The posters you're discussing this with aren't trying to pick on you, but they are trying to explain to you how actual run production really works. If you never grasp how run production works and which parameters correlates well/poorly with run scoring, then you'll never be able to grasp which hitters are more valuable than other hitters.

Marty Brennamen, unfortunately, doesn't have much of a clue how actual run production occurs.

SteelSD
04-17-2006, 05:14 PM
No...I saw him do that on St. Louis a few times with bad results. He is who he is. I am trying to explain why Marty gets frustrated with Dunner.

You're entirely right that Dunn is who he is. Problem is that Marty Brennaman wants to tell you who he thinks Adam Dunn is from moment to moment regardless of who Adam Dunn actually is. Brennaman will rail on him for taking a Walk (because "he's not paid to do that") and then will rail on him for failing when Dunn refuses to take a Walk.

Adam Dunn hit very well with RISP last year. The Reds hit very well with RISP last year. Marty Brennaman doesn't realize it, nor does he care to. If it ain't Martyball, you're not going to know about it.

It's a catch-22 with Marty. If he doesn't like a player's game, he LOOKS for things to rail on regardless of how well that player actually plays. Veteran players? He'll ignore virtually any hole in their game. Young players? You need to produce at All-Star level immediately and then he'll still rail on you if you supplant one of his veteran favorites or are perceived to be deficient in one or more Martyball areas. If you prove Marty wrong, one of two things happens- either Marty will credit the player for FINALLY having the smarts to play Martyball (regardless of the actual truth) or he'll continue to find stupid things to complain about.

The problem is that Marty's ego will not allow him to continually adjust his view on the game or the players who take the field so he has to bend success around his myopic funhouse mirror view on the game of baseball. At no point does "truth" or "accuracy" play into things unless "truth" and "accuracy" already box with the information Marty Brennaman has already given you at some point in the past. He's incapable of learning.

RANDY IN INDY
04-17-2006, 05:16 PM
I agree. But Marty is the one who has been harping on Dunn to expand his strike zone and swing at pitches out of the strike zone, i.e. "He's not paid to walk." Then when Dunn expands the strike zone and swings at bad pitchers with runners on, Marty goes off on him. Dunn can't win for losing as far as Marty is concerned.

Maybe, and this is pure conjecture, Marty would like to see Dunn swing at some of the pitches that he takes early, before expanding the strike zone late in the count.

flyer85
04-17-2006, 05:22 PM
I am trying to explain why Marty gets frustrated with Dunner.No explanantion needed. I have a very good understanding of his myopic view of baseball.

Caveat Emperor
04-17-2006, 05:42 PM
Secondly, taking what the pitcher is giving you is key to capitalizing on Run Scoring chain events. Pitchers are obviously scared of Adam Dunn with ducks on the pond this season. You can smell it and see it in every junk pitch they throw him, yet Dunn's primary issue this year is that he refuses to take the Walks being offered him.

Nailing it, as usual Steel.

If pitchers are throwing junkballs at Adam Dunn, him attempting to swing and induce contact is beyond bad. At worst, he's going to swing and miss. Likely, he's going to be induced into making a poor-contact event (flyout, popout, groundout). Trying to coach Dunn into making contact with bad pitches is merely playing into the opposition's hands.

The only thing coaches should be telling Dunn is to wait for his pitch and the only thing coaches should be working on with Dunn is being more reliable at making contact and driving his pitch. Don't have him swinging at the pitcher's pitch -- wait for the pitcher to come to you with a mistake or a pitch over the plate.

And if they're going to walk you, take your walk. Better lineup construction (with Kearns behind Dunn) will pick up the debris. Nobody ever insisted that Barry Bonds swing when he was being given the Luke Hudson treatment simply for the sake of "making contact" and getting the runners in.

Roy Tucker
04-17-2006, 06:00 PM
Marty suffers from RISP envy.

Raisor
04-17-2006, 06:03 PM
Dunn's career OPS w/RISP: .881.

We're all "above average" fans here. Time to get out of Baseball 101 and graduate to Grad school.

membengal
04-17-2006, 06:04 PM
Nailing it, as usual Steel.

And if they're going to walk you, take your walk. Better lineup construction (with Kearns behind Dunn) will pick up the debris. Nobody ever insisted that Barry Bonds swing when he was being given the Luke Hudson treatment simply for the sake of "making contact" and getting the runners in.


And there it is. IF pitchers are pitching around Dunn, and he lets them, which is what his instincts tell him to do, then the next guy up, Kearns hopefully, will see even better pitches as a consequence of the bases beginning to fill up. Dunn's natural selectivity makes those that follow him to the plate more dangerous. That is why the harping from the booth about how "Dunn isn't paid to walk" sets me off like it does. If Dunn walks, then the next guy up should see better pitches to hit. And should be in a nice position to rake those phat pitches.

Really, the whole thing is beyond insane. Dunn is fine. Marty needs lithium. Certain Reds fans need to enjoy what they have in Dunn.

Chip R
04-17-2006, 07:02 PM
Maybe, and this is pure conjecture, Marty would like to see Dunn swing at some of the pitches that he takes early, before expanding the strike zone late in the count.

That could be, Randy. But what if those pitches aren't any good to swing at or he couldn't do anything with the pitch even if he hit it? Maybe he swings at those pitches and misses them. What Marty fails to realize is that a walk with runners on base is a good thing. Dunn is going to drive in plenty of runs so carping about walking when runners are on base is dumb. Dunn is not the only one in the lineup who can drive in runs. If he walks with runners on base and the next hitter fails to drive in the run(s), that isn't his fault.

flyer85
04-17-2006, 07:19 PM
I really wish Dunn would be more clutch because I really like Dunner, but what does he have now 7 HR and 11 RBI's?? That is what 2 2run HR's 5 Solo HR's and 2 Sac Flies this year??I can't believe you conveniently forgot Dunn's scrappy 2 out bottom of the 8th single to LF against Mike GOnzalez to drive in a run from 2nd and break the tie game against the Pirates that lead the Reds to victory.

SteelSD
04-17-2006, 07:46 PM
I can't believe you conveniently forgot Dunn's scrappy 2 out bottom of the 8th single to LF against Mike GOnzalez to drive in a run from 2nd and break the tie game against the Pirates that lead the Reds to victory.

Meh. That only happened because Dunn has a penchant for "showboating".

Raisor
04-17-2006, 07:51 PM
Meh. That only happened because Dunn has a penchant for "showboating".


well, he DOES only steal bases when the Reds play on ESPN.

Or something.

Yachtzee
04-17-2006, 09:21 PM
Imagine if the Cards/Reds series this past weekend had been called by a booth of George Grande and Marty Brenneman. :eek:

wheels
04-17-2006, 10:16 PM
Meh. That only happened because Dunn has a penchant for "showboating".

It was a soft RBI.

redsrule2500
04-17-2006, 10:38 PM
What's wrong with that? It's a completely true statement.

Raisor
04-17-2006, 11:07 PM
What's wrong with that? It's a completely true statement.


881 OPS career w/RISP.

It's NOT a completely true statement.

RANDY IN INDY
04-17-2006, 11:26 PM
That could be, Randy. But what if those pitches aren't any good to swing at or he couldn't do anything with the pitch even if he hit it? Maybe he swings at those pitches and misses them. What Marty fails to realize is that a walk with runners on base is a good thing. Dunn is going to drive in plenty of runs so carping about walking when runners are on base is dumb. Dunn is not the only one in the lineup who can drive in runs. If he walks with runners on base and the next hitter fails to drive in the run(s), that isn't his fault.

Chip,

Only basing the comment on what I see watching the games. Don't get me wrong, I like the production that he brings. He is a beast. What I am seeing is that I would like to see him swing at a some of the good ones that he gets, early in the count, as opposed to some of the pitches, out of the strikezone, that he is swinging at with two strikes.

I'm sure there are some people that are going to try and tell me that I'm not seeing what I'm seeing, but it won't do any good. I know for sure that he has a lot better chance of hitting some of those good pitches early, than the balls that are nearly impossible to hit, with two strikes. Taking pitches in an at bat are a good thing if they are balls out of the strike zone, or if a pitcher is having trouble with his command. To let good pitches go by that he could and should punish, just for the sake of taking pitches in an at bat, just makes no sense to me. I've been taping Reds games and going back and watching. It is happening.

2001MUgrad
04-17-2006, 11:36 PM
I've been taping Reds games and going back and watching. It is happening.

Beleive what you see the first time after it starts to repeat itself in AB after AB.

flyer85
04-17-2006, 11:37 PM
Beleive what you see the first time after it starts to repeat itself in AB after AB.a doctor can fix that for ya

2001MUgrad
04-17-2006, 11:45 PM
a doctor can fix that for ya

If its a Reds medical provider I'd be day to day, given some cream and told to rest for 3 days. Then I'd go back in 3 days and they'd figure out I had 3 days to live.

GullyFoyle
04-18-2006, 12:24 AM
Look-- I guarantee that as poor a fielder and as one dimensional a hitter Dunn is, he will not last long on a Krivsky/Narron team. He is the type of player a middle market team cannot afford, both money wise (eventually) and in the type of game the Reds must play to win.

Dunn is exactly the kind of player a middle market team can afford... The high amount of strikeouts and the perceived lack of ability in RISP situations causes him to be undervalued by everyone who doesn't like OPS. Its finding players that are undervalued that the Reds need to do.


Adam Dunn is what he is. He is going to hit 50 HR's, have 100 RBI's, Walk 100 times and strike out 150 times. He is the definition of non-clutch.

How about having OBP of .474 and a Slugging of .769 with the bases loaded in 2005. :eek: Non-clutch?

2005 bases loaded:
Dunn .231 .474 .769
RA .350 .333 .500

I'd rather have Dunn and his .231 average...

This is what happens when Dunn has to be pitched to

edit: fixed RA's slugging

SteelSD
04-18-2006, 01:43 AM
Chip,

Only basing the comment based on what I see watching the games. Don't get me wrong, I like the production that he brings. He is a beast. What I am seeing is that I would like to see him swing at a some of the good ones that he gets, early in the count, as opposed to some of the pitches, out of the strikezone, that he is swinging at with two strikes.

I'm sure there are some people that are going to try and tell me that I'm not seeing what I'm seeing, but it won't do any good. I know for sure that he has a lot better chance of hitting some of those good pitches early, than the balls that are nearly impossible to hit, with two strikes. Taking pitches in an at bat are a good thing if they are balls out of the strike zone, or if a pitcher is having trouble with his command. To let good pitches go by that he could and should punish, just for the sake of taking pitches in an at bat, just makes no sense to me. I've been taping Reds games and going back and watching. It is happening.

From PBP data provided by MWM:

Adam Dunn has taken two of the first three pitches he's seen during a PA for strikes exactly four times this season.

Adam Dunn has taken one of the first three pitches he's seen during a PA for a strike exactly 24 times this season.

Adam Dunn has swung at two of the first three pitches he's seen during a PA 8 times this season.

Adam Dunn has swung at one of the first three pitches he's seen during a PA 38 times this season.

Adam Dunn has taken one of the first three pitches he's seen during a PA for a strike AND swung at one of the first three pitches during the same PA 15 times this season.

Adam Dunn is up there swinging a WHOLE lot in early-count situations (67% of his PA). So yeah, your brain is telling you tall tales. Adam Dunn is quite obviously not just taking early-count strikes for the "sake of taking them". His brain isn't wired like that. Dunn doesn't take pitches he likes. He swings at them...a lot. Sometimes he gets fooled and takes a good pitch. Happens to everyone. Even happened to Ted Williams- who rightly stated that it was better to take that pitch than to swing at it. Sometimes he swings at a bad pitch. Happens to everyone. Sometimes he swings at a good pitch and smokes it. Sometimes he misses. Happens to everyone.

What I'm unsure of is why you bring up the same item year after year when it's obviously not an accurate representation of Dunn's behavior. Either you think that a VAST majority of early-count taken strikes (28) Dunn has seen are of the "meatball" variety (a tenuous position considering the care taken when pitching to Dunn) or you're dramatically overestimating what one can expect of a selective hitter (who is, by nature, going to take more strikes). If it's the former, you might want to re-think your personal definition of "meatball pitch". If it's the latter, you might want to re-adjust your take to allow for a more reasonable expectation considering that Adam Dunn isn't a "plate coverage" style of hitter. In any case, there's been nothing wrong with Dunn's approach that not swinging at bad pitches with ducks on the pond wouldn't cure.

Adam Dunn has not traditionally been anything resembling a good two-strike hitter for sure. However, this season...

After 0-2 (9 PA): .111 OBP/.000 SLG
After 1-2 (19 PA): .389 OBP/1.063 SLG (not a typo)
After 2-2 (10 PA): .500 OBP/1.500 SLG (again, not a typo)
After 3-2 (9 PA): .444 OBP/1.143 SLG (nope, no typo yet)

Even including the 0-2 futility (the worst position in the world for a hitter), those are monster numbers. HUGE. While there's no way that type of overall two-strike proficiency will continue, I fail to see how Dunn's current two-strike performance (and against a higher % of LHP than normal) is anything resembling the issue you claim it to be thusfar in the season; much less an issue that would predicate Dunn needing to "fix" anything by swinging at a higher percentage of pitches early in counts- particularly when he's already swinging at a goodly number of early-count pitches.

Oh, and of the 9 times Dunn's placed himself at 0-2, only once has it been without swinging at one of the first two pitches he's seen in a PA. When he gets himself into those 2-Strike counts, he's swinging his way there.

MWM
04-18-2006, 02:34 AM
Adam Dunn has taken one of the first three pitches he's seen during a PA for a strike exactly 24 times this season.

I'll elaborate on this just a little since I have a feeling some folks are going to think this is high when I don't think it's at all high. That represents 41% of his plate appearances. I don't think it's unreasonable at all to take ONE strike within the first three pitches of an AB less than half the time (and we know that in only 4 of those a second strike looking also occured). And 15 of those 24, the strike looking was the very first pitch, which is not likely going to be a meatball to Adam Dunn. How many sluggers make a living regularly swinging at the very first pitch they see?

3 of those 24 instances resulted in a HR.

I always thought the best approach to hitting was to take pitches until you either get the exact pitch you're looking for or until you get a strike. So, a hitter should be taking a strike most of the time unless that first strike they see represents the pitch they chose ahead of time. That means that in 59% of his plate appearances, in the first three pitches he's either getting three balls thrown to him, he's putting the ball in play, or he's been swinging at the strikes. That sounds to me like Dunn is more than willing to swing at pitches early in the count. And of those PA's how many of those first strikes do you think are "meatballs" keeping in mind this is one of the more powerful hitters in the game?

I'm sure in all your baseball experience, Randy, you've taught your pupils the value of seeing plenty of pitches from a pitcher. Surely you don't teach them to swing at the first pitch they see over the plate? Surely taking one strike in the first three pitches in 40% of a player's plate appearances is a healthy thing to do. I would suggest that if you never let a really good pitch go by, you're most likely swingly too freely.

I've watched just abou every game this year and sure, I've seen Adam take some pitches he should have crushed, but I don't think there's a hitter alive who doesn't. But I just don't see him taking meatball after meatball early in the count like you're suggesting. We must be watching something completely different because I just don't see it.

MWM
04-18-2006, 03:24 AM
Adam Dunn has taken two of the first three pitches he's seen during a PA for strikes exactly four times this season.

5 times for Albert Pujols.


Adam Dunn has taken one of the first three pitches he's seen during a PA for a strike exactly 24 times this season.

Albert Pujols 37 times


Adam Dunn has swung at two of the first three pitches he's seen during a PA 8 times this season.

Pujols 6 times


Adam Dunn has swung at one of the first three pitches he's seen during a PA 38 times this season.

34 times for Pujols.


Adam Dunn has taken one of the first three pitches he's seen during a PA for a strike AND swung at one of the first three pitches during the same PA 15 times this season.

12 times for Pujols


Adam Dunn is up there swinging a WHOLE lot in early-count situations (67% of his PA).

Pujols 55% of his PA.


So Albert Pujols takes more early count strikes than Adam Dunn and swings early in the count a lot less than Dunn. Hell, maybe Adam needs to be EVEN MORE patient early in the count and swing less than he is now.

Just for our reference here, all 3 HRs he hit on Sunday were in plate appearances where he took a strike in the first three pitches. Man, I wish he would have swung at those early count strikes.

And the one he hit in his first AB tonight (the 4th PA in a row with an HR), he took TWO of the first three pitches for strikes. Maybe taking early count strikes makes sense afterall.

RANDY IN INDY
04-18-2006, 09:10 AM
Let me preface all that I say with this. I am thrilled that Adam Dunn is a member of the Cincinnati Reds. He brings an element to the team that only a handful of players in the entire game can supply. I'm a big fan, but the downside is that his abilities leave me wanting him to be not only a great source of power but a complete and polished ballplayer, which I think he can be. Maybe my expectations are too high, but that's how I feel about Adam Dunn.


Originally posted by SteelSD: So yeah, your brain is telling you tall tales.

That didn't take long. Actually, it is my TiVo that is telling me what I'm seeing. Maybe the TiVo fairy is coming in and recreating Adam's at bats and is merely trying to trick me.;) I'll tell you dude. A lot of those pitches that Adam Dunn takes early are very hittable. We're not talking about "pitchers' pitches" that he shouldn't swing at. I'm sure he would like to get a few of those offerings late in the count, but that's not gonna' happen very often. When it does, he obviously punishes those pitches.(What was Brian Moeller thinking?) The "brain wiring" that you are so familiar with, needs to be able to allow for some adjustment in the way he is being pitched from time to time. My book tells me that he takes a lot of good pitches early. If I'm a savvy kind of pitcher, I'm going to jump on that until it changes. The window for pitching Dunn is very small. Don't make mistakes after strike one. You have to make quality pitches, and the zones to get him out are very obvious right now.


Originally posted by MWM: But I just don't see him taking
meatball after meatball early in the count like you're suggesting.

And I'm not surprised at your misrepresentation of what I said. Go back to my post and find that statement. Very predictable, you are. I believe it was your buddy who brought up the "meatball" phrase.


Originally posted by MWM"I'm sure in all your baseball experience, Randy, you've taught your pupils the value of seeing plenty of pitches from a pitcher. Surely you don't teach them to swing at the first pitch they see over the plate? Surely taking one strike in the first three pitches in 40% of a player's plate appearances is a healthy thing to do. I would suggest that if you never let a really good pitch go by, you're most likely swingly too freely.

There were always certain situations and certain hitters where I wanted them to take a strike. That is nothing new, but I always wanted the young guys that I was coaching to be ready to hit a good pitch, particularly the 16-18's that I coached. You don't always get multiple good pitches to hit in any at bat. At that level, on the traveling teams that I coached, a good pitcher would not throw a lot of good hittable strikes after getting ahead. We faced a lot of good pitching, usually the cream of the crop. Not MLB, but very good and usually very well coached and smart.

With Dunn, I have seen a pattern develop where pitchers give him a lot of good pitches very early. He has a great knowledge of the strike zone, and I see no reason why he shouldn't cash in on that pattern until it changes. If he blasts a few of those early strikes, the pattern will change. Adjustments are a huge part of the professional game, for both hitters and pitchers. The ability to adjust is something that I think a great hitter like Dunn, can do.

As far as Pujols is concerned, I think it is a travesty that anyone gives him anything to hit after he takes all those first strikes.


Originally posted by MWM:Man, I wish he would have swung at those early count strikes.

Man, I wish the Reds pitchers wouldn't have given him those late count 'Meatballs" (as you guys so aptly describe them)to hit.


Originally posted by MWM:Maybe taking early count strikes makes sense afterall.

Particularly when those brainiac pitchers are throwing those late count meatballs to a guy who is absolutely on fire. They'd be a little lighter in their backpockets if I were their manager.

Johnny Footstool
04-18-2006, 10:51 AM
Randy, as a coach, I'm sure you know the value of a hitter seeing what kind of pitches the pitcher has to offer. Timing fastballs and anticipating curves, learning the pitcher's motion, and all those good things come from watching pitches. You can sorta see it from the on-deck circle, but it's best to see it from the batter's box. Sometimes, it means you have to watch a hittable 91-mph heater sail by. It pays off when you see that 91-mph heater again (maybe in a later at-bat) and crush it.

I'm sure you also know that hitters usually start off their at-bat looking for a particular pitch. A hitter could be looking for a curveball and ignore the fastball down the middle. It's just one strike. You get more. Even good pitchers will throw hittable balls in the zone, especially if you work the count and wear the pitcher down.

I understand the benefits of having a hitter immediately recognize a strike early in the count and take a swing at it. Despite what you're seeing, Dunn does that, and he does it well. Last season, Dunn swung at the first pitch 58 times (almost 10% of his PAs) and hit 7 HR with 12 RBIs. His line was .362/.393/.828 for a 1.221 OPS. He's already swung at 5 first pitches this season (still almost 10% of his PAs), and he's OPSing 1.700.

So maybe the criticism is unfounded.