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Falls City Beer
04-16-2006, 11:05 PM
We all know it's coming. We all sniff it on the horizon--be it now or the middle of May--the fierce losing skid that signals the end. When RS and RA go careening in opposite directions and fans pull out their football jerseys and Street and Smith college ball guides.

So what's the first white-flag move by Krivsky?

If I had to guess, I'd say M2 was psychic in his guess of Kearns to Minnesota. They're finally getting it together pitching-wise, but they still could use another bat. It's my pick as the bellwether move: Kearns for _______ (hopefully two arms) from Minnesota.

What's your white-flagger?

reds44
04-16-2006, 11:07 PM
Oh God

MWM
04-16-2006, 11:08 PM
Oh God

Yes.

KronoRed
04-16-2006, 11:08 PM
Panic! ;)

flyer85
04-16-2006, 11:09 PM
Having watched WK in action to this point I would have no idea.

M2
04-16-2006, 11:10 PM
Love the thread title.

Honestly, hopefully Krivsky entered the season with a list of guys he's willing to move as soon as he gets his price.

flyer85
04-16-2006, 11:11 PM
Love the thread title.

Honestly, hopefully Krivsky entered the season with a list of guys he's willing to move as soon as he gets his price.hopefully it starts with Milton and Jr if you really want to rebuild

pedro
04-16-2006, 11:15 PM
Mr. Buckles would be much better if the the Reds got some pitching.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2006, 11:20 PM
hopefully it starts with Milton and Jr if you really want to rebuild

Absolutely. But I don't think those two will be first out the door. Teams will want more of an assurance that these two will stay healthy and productive--so probably around the deadline, if at all.

But the point of the thread is to name the first deal, the deal that throws other moves into motion.

Betterread
04-16-2006, 11:23 PM
Don't count on getting Baker for Kearns - he outpitched Mussina on Friday night and if he registers a few more quality starts - the expectation will be that he will be Radke's replacement in 2007. Liriano is a stud and the Twins won't trade him, either.
So what do you think a suitable offer for Kearns would be? How about Morneau?

Falls City Beer
04-16-2006, 11:25 PM
Don't count on getting Baker for Kearns - he outpitched Mussina on Friday night and if he registers a few more quality starts - the expectation will be that he will be Radke's replacement in 2007. Liriano is a stud and the Twins won't trade him, either.
So what do you think a suitable offer for Kearns would be? How about Morneau?

If they're smart and Kearns is OPSing @ 1.000 in mid-May, they'd be very wise to consider Baker for Kearns.

Betterread
04-16-2006, 11:28 PM
If they're smart and Kearns is OPSing @ 1.000 in mid-May, they'd be very wise to consider Baker for Kearns.
If Kearns is OPSing 1.000 in mid-may, why on earth would we trade him for a prospect whose ceiling is a 3-4 starter? Baker is over-valued by the Twins, just as Radke was. Don't undervalue Kearns. If you must trade him, you can get far more talent than Baker.

IslandRed
04-16-2006, 11:31 PM
Honestly, hopefully Krivsky entered the season with a list of guys he's willing to move as soon as he gets his price.

At least he's shown the willingness to actually do something, even if I'm not universally in favor of what he does, so yeah, we could see a lot of churn this year. Really, my list of "I'd be shocked if he was traded this year" guys numbers less than ten, and that's for the entire organization.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2006, 11:32 PM
If Kearns is OPSing 1.000 in mid-may, why on earth would we trade him for a prospect whose ceiling is a 3-4 starter?

Because we have a rotation consisting of a #2 and three #5 starters, plus a guy who has no business in the majors.

KronoRed
04-16-2006, 11:34 PM
Come on Arroyo and Claussen at least have potential to be 3's ;)

Falls City Beer
04-16-2006, 11:35 PM
Come on Arroyo and Claussen at least have potential to be 3's ;)

Arroyo's twice looked like a number 5 this season and once like a number 2/3.

And Claussen's been putrid.

nycredsfan
04-16-2006, 11:37 PM
I'm still enjoying the Human Amusements at Hourly Rates, which is to say watching the Reds play. But if the Reds are to Do the Collapse I would hope that Krivsky has a bottle of Earthquake Glue to put this team back together because as it stands now watching this bullpen midsummer will be liking staring into the Half Smiles of the Decomposed, which quite frankly would make me want to hide Under the Bushes, Under the Stars. Perhaps Krivsky can find a hapless GM out there on the Alien Lanes who is not familiar with the Universal Truths and Cycles of baseball and will be able to turn this team around. I have wasted enough of everyone's time and there are far too many album titles for this project to go on.

2001MUgrad
04-16-2006, 11:38 PM
I'm not ready to throw the towell in yet. A bullpen is usually fairly cheap and easy to rebuilt. Now that the season has started its not as easy, but still possible. If the Reds can shape up a BP there isn't any reason to not think they can't contend at this point.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2006, 11:41 PM
I'm not ready to throw the towell in yet. A bullpen is usually fairly cheap and easy to rebuilt. Now that the season has started its not as easy, but still possible. If the Reds can shape up a BP there isn't any reason to not think they can't contend at this point.

That's not really what I'm saying. But before long, you and I both know this club will come unravelled and Krivsky's going to be faced with the stark reality of a well-below .500 club.

What does he do?

Does he, as you suggest, turn Denorfia, say, into a bullpen arm for a quick fix? Which route does Krivsky take do you think?

KronoRed
04-16-2006, 11:42 PM
Kearns would be the first IMO to go, Denorfia won't bring much..but could be an adequate replacement for Kearns.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2006, 11:43 PM
If Kearns is OPSing 1.000 in mid-may, why on earth would we trade him for a prospect whose ceiling is a 3-4 starter? Baker is over-valued by the Twins, just as Radke was. Don't undervalue Kearns. If you must trade him, you can get far more talent than Baker.

Fair enough. Perhaps you can. So whom would you target?

edabbs44
04-16-2006, 11:46 PM
If they're smart and Kearns is OPSing @ 1.000 in mid-May, they'd be very wise to consider Baker for Kearns.

I think the 2 top trade partners we have are the Twins and the Marlins. Reasons are as follows:

Twins: They have the pitching to win now but are desperate for hitting. When you have Rondell White hitting cleanup and both Tony Batista and Juan Castro in your lineup, it speaks for itself. I think Krivsky is trying to get the most out of Aurilia and then try and package him with someone else for a Baker-type pitcher. Kearns would be too much at this point for Baker...he looks like he might be finally putting it together. Cincy's best hitters are lefties (Dunn and Jr) and we need Kearns to be the neutralizer vs lefties. I don't think the Morneau move would happen for that reason alone. Plus, Baker seems to be expendable since they have Liriano in their BP and have plenty of pitching prospects. Not to say Baker is useless for them, but they need more hitting to expect to do anything this year.

Marlins: After their purge, they absolutely loaded up on pitching prospects. So much so, they were dangling Scott Olsen for Gathright. I thought Pena for Olsen would have been a great move for both sides, esp since they wanted Gathright for him. Now if we were to deal Kearns, Florida would be a much better destination. They are going to need hitting when these pitchers get to the majors and Kearns would be hitting his prime when that happens. I bet they could get Olsen and another minor leaguer for Kearns. I don't know if I would be happy with that, but a potential top of the rotation lefty is not one you find every day.

Superdude
04-16-2006, 11:47 PM
Because we have a rotation consisting of a #2 and three #5 starters, plus a guy who has no business in the majors.

Does the fact that we need pitching make all trades for pitching good ones? If Kearns is still torching the ball mid May, why would you trade him away for a so-so prospect? When you're most likely not going to be in the playoff hunt, trades should be judged by whether or not you got full value, not whether you filled a team need.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2006, 11:53 PM
Does the fact that we need pitching make all trades for pitching good ones? If Kearns is still torching the ball mid May, why would you trade him away for a so-so prospect? When you're most likely not going to be in the playoff hunt, trades should be judged by whether or not you got full value, not whether you filled a team need.


No, but the Reds need all kinds of pitching, and acquiring a #3 pitcher for an outfielder would be a very good move. A #1 or 2 would be better, but the Reds would have to spend years waiting for that to emerge from the minors, as he would arrive from whatever team we got him from in the form of a prospect, not a major leaguer like Baker.

I think the Reds should target both major leaguers and prospects, not prospects alone.

Betterread
04-16-2006, 11:56 PM
Fair enough. Perhaps you can. So whom would you target?

I like the Toronto organization's pitching - they have 5 pitchers I am really keen on - lefthanded starters Dustin McGowan, David Purcey, and Ricky Romero and two hard throwing RHP relievers Brandon League and Francisco Rosario. How about one of each category for Kearns?

flyer85
04-17-2006, 12:05 AM
So what do you think a suitable offer for Kearns would be? How about Morneau?I'd do that in a heartbeat but I doubt the Twins would. I really don't see the Twins wanting Kearns, he doesn't seem to me to be a huge upgrade from their Stewart/Hunter/Ford troika, especially when they stay with a scrappy vet like White instead of going with Kubel.

edabbs44
04-17-2006, 12:06 AM
I like the Toronto organization's pitching - they have 5 pitchers I am really keen on - lefthanded starters Dustin McGowan, David Purcey, and Ricky Romero and two hard throwing RHP relievers Brandon League and Francisco Rosario. How about one of each category for Kearns?


That's not a bad scenario. They could use someone in LF, with Rios and Wells locked down in the other areas. McGowan might be too high and Romero wouldn't be able to be dealt until after this year's draft (one year rule). But I could see them being players if Kearns is available. If Kearns is still mashing at the break and Toronto and/or Minny is still in the race, I could see either Liriano and McGowan as not being a stretch.

flyer85
04-17-2006, 12:07 AM
I think the bullpen guys(weathers or Mercker ) are likely to go first. I don't forsee any May trades, I think it will be closer to the July deadline before Krivsky punts.

M2
04-17-2006, 12:08 AM
Arms in the Twins system that intrigue me include - Glen Perkins, Adam Harben, Justin Jones, Kevin Slowey, Matt Garza, Anthony Swarzak, John Thomas and Ryan Mullins. Pat Neshek and J.P. Martinez are power bullpen arms in that system. J.D. Durbin does nothing for me as a starter, but if you can get him as a throw-in, he migh take off as a reliever.

westofyou
04-17-2006, 12:09 AM
Mr. Buckles would be much better if the the Reds got some pitching.
this one is on the house
this one is better than ever

Falls City Beer
04-17-2006, 12:10 AM
I think the bullpen guys(weathers or Mercker ) are likely to go first. I don't forsee any May trades, I think it will be closer to the July deadline before Krivsky punts.

Oh, it's possible that Krivsky waits till July. But if on June 1st the team is 15 games under .500, something's going to give IMO.

edabbs44
04-17-2006, 12:13 AM
Oh, it's possible that Krivsky waits till July. But if on June 1st the team is 15 games under .500, something's going to give IMO.

I think Krivsky has to decide whether he is playing for the present or for the future. With RA, Womack and Hatte getting a lot of playing time, it seems like he is gunning for this year. But with the pen in its current state, he has to come to grips and get honest with himself. Mercker and Weathers might, and I say MIGHT, be decent trading chips come the deadline. It seems like BP help is always overpriced in July. So if he wants to see what can happen now, he should try and get that help soon before everyone is looking for help.

M2
04-17-2006, 12:20 AM
I think Krivsky has to decide whether he is playing for the present or for the future. With RA, Womack and Hatte getting a lot of playing time, it seems like he is gunning for this year. But with the pen in its current state, he has to come to grips and get honest with himself. Mercker and Weathers might, and I say MIGHT, be decent trading chips come the deadline. It seems like BP help is always overpriced in July. So if he wants to see what can happen now, he should try and get that help soon before everyone is looking for help.

IMO, Narron's the one gunning for this year and Krivsky's content to let him do it until the shine comes off the club and/or the trade market heats up.