View Full Version : Is it time for a preemptive strike change, or should we be patient?

04-16-2006, 11:10 PM
I don't wanna be one of these quick trigger guys that people have to be dropped asap after a bad few games ... but I don't want to be two months our and Chris Hammond and Rick White still doing terrible and the bullpen being extremely weak. You think we should make moves now or wait it out a little longer?

04-16-2006, 11:12 PM
No reason why Shackelford shouldn't be up here in stead of Hammond. Now White is a different story.

04-16-2006, 11:12 PM
I advocated no White and Hammonds before the season. Will bringing up Wagner and Shack make them a contender? No, but at some point you have to try and figure out if guys can help for the future(certainly White and Hammond won't).

04-16-2006, 11:15 PM
BTW, White suppressed his ERA(down to 3.8) last year by a HR rate that fell off the planet in respect to his career totals. With the HR today he now has given up as many HRs is he did last year(3). White is destined for a season where he will struggle to keep the ERA below 5.50 which would have been the case last year without the HR rate drop.

04-16-2006, 11:21 PM
Will bringing up Wagner and Shack make them a contender?

It certainly can't hurt.

04-16-2006, 11:21 PM
Keep on eye on Guevera now doing well at AA(where some have predicted a flameout). He has that nasty pitch that nobody throws anymore(a screwball) which has shown to be rather unhittable throughout his minor league career. His line so far in AA is 7IP 3H 1BB 9Ks

I think the Reds have 4 interesting potential BP arms in AA in Shafer, Medlock, Guevara and Dumatrait.

04-16-2006, 11:26 PM
Leaving Shack and Wags in AAA over White and Hammond baffles me...

04-16-2006, 11:27 PM
Shackleford and Wagner MAY help, but I mean its not a sure thing. White and Hammond both have career ERA around 4, and last year their ERA was under 4. They aren't world beaters, but I mean, its not like they've been bad their whole career either though. Mike Burns ERA was 2.10 in Triple A last year, the same type of player we would be clammering to bring up ASAP this year. There are no guarantees ... they pitcher SHOULD be doing a lot better based on their career, thats why I'm not going to say pull the plug ASAP, but at some point they have to step up because time is not a luxury we have. Once it starts going downhill, it can go downhill in an absolute hurry.

04-16-2006, 11:37 PM
I predicted failure for Hammond and White before the season. I must really be loaded with that special knowledge to discern something like that.:rolleyes:

BTW, anyone with an ounce of curiosity could have dug into the same numbers I looked at and would have come to the same conclusion. There was no genius or great insight involved, just some simple analysis.

White has struggled since the early in the decade and the only thing that suppressed his ERA last year was an abnornally low HR rate. With a regression to the mean a 5.50 ERA was likely and predictable.

With Hammond a 2nd half collapse at the age of 40 while pitching half the time in the most extreme pitchers park in baseball was enough of a huge warning sign to stay far away.

04-16-2006, 11:42 PM
Nuke 'em.