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View Full Version : Taking another look at the Casey trade



djsauter
04-17-2006, 04:38 PM
What we got:

D Williams
CIN 0 2 8.00

What we gave up:

S Casey
PIT .313

What we got to replace Casey:

S Hatteberg
CIN .136

...now, please, I'd love to see you all try and defend the trade. It was a joke when it was made, it still is a joke.

Joseph
04-17-2006, 04:39 PM
8.5 Million.

The defense rests.

djsauter
04-17-2006, 04:40 PM
8.5 Million.

The defense rests.

...and what have we done with that money that helps the team at all??

WVRedsFan
04-17-2006, 04:40 PM
Took the words right out of my mouth, Joseph. Plus, Williams won't always be that bad. He won 10 games for the awful Pirates.

OnBaseMachine
04-17-2006, 04:40 PM
...and what have we done with that money that helps the team at all??

Signed Dunn to an extension.

KronoRed
04-17-2006, 04:40 PM
Signed Dunn long term.

redsfan30
04-17-2006, 04:44 PM
8.5 Million.

The defense rests.
Plus, don't forget that he'd be taking that money sitting on the sidelines for 6-8 weeks..probably longer with that injury.

Team Clark
04-17-2006, 04:45 PM
Doesn't seem to me that Casey's .316 was helping Pittsburgh win any more games than Williams' 8.00 ERA was helping the Reds. Evaluating a trade in the first few weeks of the season is a litte premature. July/Aug would be more reasonable IMO.

kbrake
04-17-2006, 04:50 PM
I dont care if Williams ever wins a game for the Reds Joseph already said it all. 8.5 million.

Reds1
04-17-2006, 04:53 PM
Also, Casey has hit in a ton of DP already this year (rally killer) and is now injured. Pitt is in last place so I'm not sure you can say Casey has been a huge contributer.

Aurilia is also playing 1st so put his stats at 1B a couple games as he has rocked.

Williams pitched good his 1st outting. 2ER I think. it was a game we didn't score. Williams couldn't find the curve last game and that can't happen. He needs the curve.

12 games in is a bit early to say if this was a good trade or not.

Caveat Emperor
04-17-2006, 05:03 PM
...now, please, I'd love to see you all try and defend the trade. It was a joke when it was made, it still is a joke.

Garbage in, garbage out.

Given Casey's salary level, performance, and projected declines due to age and a body type (big and slow moving) that didn't fit his style of game (contact) I imagine the Reds would've been lucky to get a coupon for a free Whopper™ for him. Maybe they could've gotten fries thrown in if they offered to pay more of his salary.

Fault to Dan O'Brien for failing to move Casey in 2004 when he was batting close to .400 and hitting homers at a fair clip. Yet another black mark from the inaction packed days of the DanO regime.

Now, as to whether Williams or the Whopper was a better deal, you decide.

BRM
04-17-2006, 05:05 PM
Now, as to whether Williams or the Whopper was a better deal, you decide.

Whoppers upset my stomach. I'd take the Whopper.

Puffy
04-17-2006, 05:29 PM
My problem is and always has been that Dave Williams sucks. Dave Williams for Casey and 1.1 million is a bad trade no matter what. I'd rather pay Casey the money (mind you I have wanted Casey traded since 2003) than have Dave Williams on the Reds. But when you talk about this trade please remember that not only did the Reds trade Casey for Dave Williams straight up, the Reds also included cash cause, well, I don't know why.

So technically I agree with Caveat that the Reds waited too long to trade Casey and thats what makes this trade stink - but even so, Casey plus money for Dave Williams and Dave Williams alone is horrendous, even with ancilliary benefits like signing Dunn.

Thats how bad Dave Williams is (and I don't buy that he won 10 games for a bad team stuff - if you trot out a pitcher 30 plus times and the team wins 14 of those games and the pitchers picks up 10 of those wins he is still on the wrong side of .500, and even for a number 5 thats not good).

reds44
04-17-2006, 05:30 PM
8.5 Million.

The defense rests.
and the man making that money has a broken back

westofyou
04-17-2006, 05:34 PM
What we gave up:

S Casey
PIT .313 So using batting average is the way to win a small sample race between two players who play 2 different positions, that represent completley different statistical contributions to the team?

Forget the trade, I'd like to see someone defend that methodology.

Raisor
04-17-2006, 05:41 PM
So using batting average is the way to win a small sample race between two players who play 2 different positions, that represent completley different statistical contributions to the team?

Forget the trade, I'd like to see someone defend that methodology.



I think someone needs to bring out the Chewbacca defense.

KronoRed
04-17-2006, 05:45 PM
http://www.cnn.com/EVENTS/1997/star.wars.anniversary/where.are.they/chewbacca.lg.jpg

PuffyPig
04-17-2006, 06:00 PM
Thats how bad Dave Williams is (and I don't buy that he won 10 games for a bad team stuff - if you trot out a pitcher 30 plus times and the team wins 14 of those games and the pitchers picks up 10 of those wins he is still on the wrong side of .500, and even for a number 5 thats not good).

Not that I'm disagreeing with what you're really saying in most of your post, but if a bad team wins 14/30 of the #5 starter's starts, then the #5 starter isn't it's biggest problem.

If a teams gets 14/30 wins from it's worst starter, that team will likely be above .500.

Hooligan
04-17-2006, 06:09 PM
I second that.


8.5 Million.

The defense rests.

RedsManRick
04-17-2006, 06:10 PM
Everybody is overlooking the #1 problem with the Casey deal. Shortly after the Casey deal was made, O'Brien went and spent some of the newly freed money on a scrappy 2B on the Yankees. No Casey/Williams deal -> No available money -> No Tony Womack -> More Ryan Freel PT.

Team Clark
04-17-2006, 08:20 PM
Everybody is overlooking the #1 problem with the Casey deal. Shortly after the Casey deal was made, O'Brien went and spent some of the newly freed money on a scrappy 2B on the Yankees. No Casey/Williams deal -> No available money -> No Tony Womack -> More Ryan Freel PT.

I am not in a plcae that I can access the info as quickly. I'm at a rain delayed game. (actually still delayed from yesterday) Anyway, didn't the Yakees give the Reds some $$$ to cover part of Womack's salary?

Joseph
04-17-2006, 08:40 PM
I am not in a plcae that I can access the info as quickly. I'm at a rain delayed game. (actually still delayed from yesterday) Anyway, didn't the Yakees give the Reds some $$$ to cover part of Womack's salary?

IIRC Womack makes 1.9 and the Yankees gave the Reds the .9

nycredsfan
04-17-2006, 08:49 PM
So using batting average is the way to win a small sample race between two players who play 2 different positions, that represent completley different statistical contributions to the team?

Forget the trade, I'd like to see someone defend that methodology.

That was pretty weak, but here is a set of numbers that will make it very difficult to defend the trade. Casey can do 31 sit-ups while Dave Williams only brushes his teeth once a day. Anyone still like the trade now?

westofyou
04-17-2006, 09:02 PM
That was pretty weak, but here is a set of numbers that will make it very difficult to defend the trade. Casey can do 31 sit-ups while Dave Williams only brushes his teeth once a day. Anyone still like the trade now?
Hmmm... Dave Williams can snowshoe faster across a lava field in Idaho faster than Sean Casey can eat five 3 ways and a freezer full of JTM.

Therefore I like the trade.

nycredsfan
04-17-2006, 09:08 PM
Hmmm... Dave Williams can snowshoe faster across a lava field in Idaho faster than Sean Casey can eat five 3 ways and a freezer full of JTM.

Therefore I like the trade.

That is a little unfair as Casey has been eating with a pulled stomach muscle for the past two seasons. You have to go back to '03 when Casey could eat five 3 ways and a freezer full of JTM in 3:46. Furthermore while Williams can post a very respectable 3:59 snowshoe speed in the friendly confines of Idaho, outside of that snowshoe friendly state, he suffers with a 4:16 average.

Aronchis
04-17-2006, 09:31 PM
The Casey trade was made for the savings this year which was about 5 million.............

Of course any rational GM would have dealt Sean for a Aball prospect with some upside, Mr. O'brien went with the "now" help. Thank you.

kaldaniels
04-17-2006, 11:45 PM
What we got:

D Williams
CIN 0 2 8.00

What we gave up:

S Casey
PIT .313

What we got to replace Casey:

S Hatteberg
CIN .136

...now, please, I'd love to see you all try and defend the trade. It was a joke when it was made, it still is a joke.

Flawed logic my friend, flawed flawed logic. You don't judge a trade by the first 10 games played after the trade. Also, don't throw up those batting average numbers like they mean something because the sample size is too small. I don't like Hatteberg at first myself, but next time present a better argument.

Team Clark
04-18-2006, 12:24 AM
IIRC Womack makes 1.9 and the Yankees gave the Reds the .9

Thanks for helping me out on that. Greatly appreciated.

WVRedsFan
04-18-2006, 12:35 AM
Thats how bad Dave Williams is (and I don't buy that he won 10 games for a bad team stuff - if you trot out a pitcher 30 plus times and the team wins 14 of those games and the pitchers picks up 10 of those wins he is still on the wrong side of .500, and even for a number 5 thats not good).

Using that logic, Aaron Harang is that bad, right?

Puffy
04-18-2006, 10:11 AM
Using that logic, Aaron Harang is that bad, right?

No, Aaron harang has way better peripherals. Just throwing out that he won 10 games for a bad team is flawed logic to its core. You need to look at other numbers, ERA, K's per 9, WHIP, etc.

WVRedsFan
04-18-2006, 10:47 AM
No, Aaron harang has way better peripherals. Just throwing out that he won 10 games for a bad team is flawed logic to its core. You need to look at other numbers, ERA, K's per 9, WHIP, etc.

Just kidding you a little bit...:)

I'd say Dave Williams is a typical 5th starter/long relief guy at best, but my guess is that they shopped Casey to everyone they could and this was the best Dan O'Brien could do (note I said DanO, not anyone else). Casey was probably not wanted by most with his 8.5 million salary.

Puffy
04-18-2006, 11:20 AM
Just kidding you a little bit...:)

I'd say Dave Williams is a typical 5th starter/long relief guy at best, but my guess is that they shopped Casey to everyone they could and this was the best Dan O'Brien could do (note I said DanO, not anyone else). Casey was probably not wanted by most with his 8.5 million salary.

Ahhh, its all good! It just still peeves me that the best Dan O'Brien could do for Casey was Dave Williams along with giving up cash. The Brewers got a huge haul for Lyle Overbay. Casey and Overbay are almost identical players - Casey a little higher BA, Overbay with a tinge more pop. Now granted Overbay didn't have Casey's price tag which made it easier to get a bigger haul, but Toronto gave up three good players for Overbay, Casey got back no good players and we had to throw in cash. It just hurts.

djsauter
04-18-2006, 11:50 AM
You guys are unbeliveable. I will bring this baby back up at the end of the year to prove my point, maybe then the "sample size" will be big enough to please you??

westofyou
04-18-2006, 11:56 AM
You guys are unbeliveable. I will bring this baby back up at the end of the year to prove my point, maybe then the "sample size" will be big enough to please you??
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4979


Most teams can deal with one injury, even two at the same time. It gets more dicey when the injuries involve the same backup. The Pirates will be without Sean Casey for at least two months after it was discovered that he had small fractures in his back. Itís a serious injury for any hitter, let alone one with a history of back and hamstring problems. The popular Casey will undergo aggressive rehab in hopes of getting him back into Pittsburgh's lineup ASAP, but do not be surprised to see this go well beyond the listed six or eight weeks.

Chip R
04-18-2006, 12:02 PM
You guys are unbeliveable. I will bring this baby back up at the end of the year to prove my point, maybe then the "sample size" will be big enough to please you??

Glad you have such an open mind. :rolleyes:

Caveat Emperor
04-18-2006, 12:04 PM
You guys are unbeliveable. I will bring this baby back up at the end of the year to prove my point, maybe then the "sample size" will be big enough to please you??

To prove your point that Dave Williams is a mediocre to slightly-above awful pitcher?

While your at, would you mind writing me a term paper refuting Thales' contention that everything is made of water?

Benny-Distefano
04-18-2006, 12:34 PM
I can see both sides of this.

We have gotten nothing useful from the Casey trade. However, we were able to dump a bunch of salary...Which is what small market teams have to do.

But, I believe the Reds would be a beter ballclub with Casey and without Williams from a talent and production standpoint.

Sure we saved a few mil. Sure Casey is fat and slow. But the bottom line is that Casey is a perrenial .300 hitter who isnt too bad in the field anymore. Williams is a below average pitcher, at best.

I mean, I'm glad the team saved millions, but again, I think we are a better team with Casey at first.
Especially better than the stiff we have there now, hitting what? A buck-0-five? When you first baseman is in danger of being put in the 8-spot, he better be a gold glover. He's not.