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View Full Version : Does Griffey going on DL really hurt us?



Cooper
04-18-2006, 12:52 PM
Ok, I'll say it. I think you could make the case that Griffey going on the DL doesn't hurt the team that much.

1. Freel becomes CF and he has much more range than Griffey. I would guess a full 1 or 1.5 wins differnce (regarding defense). All this is assuming that Griffey's defense cost about -30 hits per year. You couple that with Freel being an average CF and i think it adds up to about 1.5 wins.

2. My best guess is there's a 1 win difference between Griffey and Freel offensively.

If all this is true, then a case could be made that there's an even exchange, Freel for Griffey.

3. Moving Freel to CF opens up 2nd base thus allowing Phillips to play full-time. The difference between Freel and Phillips is close to an even exchange. Freel and Phillips are essentially the same player offensively with Freel having an edge. I would think Phillps is better at defense and, i know he can turn the double play better than Freel.

Long term. The only real negative effect it has is possibly giving Tony Womack more ab's. I'm hoping Narron bats Aurilla instead. If they cut Womack today (per LaRue) then things really shape up.

The Griffey injury ain't gonna hurt this team that much....maybe not at all.

All this would change if they put Griffey in left and moved AD to first, but as of this configuration....we are fine.

Jpup
04-18-2006, 12:53 PM
It hurts, but the offense is good enough without him to make it not matter much.

flyer85
04-18-2006, 12:58 PM
Ok, I'll say it. I think you could make the case that Griffey going on the DL doesn't hurt the team that much.Not all that much. It depends on where the ABs go. The less Womack the better. The best answer is Denorfia in CF and Freel at 2nd but we know that won't happen.

Jpup
04-18-2006, 12:58 PM
Freel and Phillips are essentially the same player offensively .


There is no way that I can agree with that.

flyer85
04-18-2006, 01:01 PM
There is no way that I can agree with that.nor is there any evidence for that. Phillips has shown himself to be OBP challenged. Doesn't mean that Phillips couldn't improve because Freel certainly has shown more OBP skills in the majors than he did in the minors.

Cooper
04-18-2006, 01:10 PM
Meant to say esentially the same value overall. My guess is they are closer than first appearance.

1. GABP is a slight hitters park
2. Buffalo (iirc) is a pitchers park in a pitchers league.
3. Phillips is 24 and could make some slight gains (5-10%).
4. He has more power than Freel.

Overall, there ain't that much difference.

traderumor
04-18-2006, 01:29 PM
Not all that much. It depends on where the ABs go. The less Womack the better. The best answer is Denorfia in CF and Freel at 2nd but we know that won't happen.
It is stunning to me that this obvious move cannot be made by Krivsky. Womack is a $1M writeoff. DFA him yesterday.

Chip R
04-18-2006, 01:33 PM
It is stunning to me that this obvious move cannot be made by Krivsky. Womack is a $1M writeoff. DFA him yesterday.

With Jr. on the DL, though, you don't need to now. It would be a great move but activating LaRue takes Jr.'s spot.

registerthis
04-18-2006, 01:57 PM
So, in effect, we're rooting for Junior toc ome back quickly NOT necessarily because it would be great to have him back in the lineup, but because it hastens the possibility of Womack getting DFA'd?

I LOVE being a fan of this team.

KronoRed
04-18-2006, 01:58 PM
Depends, does this lead to Phillips getting time at 2nd with Freel on the OF, or does it lead to McCraken and Womack getting a lot of time?

KronoRed
04-18-2006, 01:59 PM
So, in effect, we're rooting for Junior toc ome back quickly NOT necessarily because it would be great to have him back in the lineup, but because it hastens the possibility of Womack getting DFA'd?

I LOVE being a fan of this team.
Word.

We aim for the little plesures.

RedsManRick
04-18-2006, 02:03 PM
Womack has not started since April 12. With Freel playing the way he is, I think we're seeing Narron recognize who the more valuable player is. I'm sure Freel we'll see the occasional day off, but I think Womack and Phillips are the better playing time comps at this point.

Big Klu
04-18-2006, 04:40 PM
Womack has not started since April 12. With Freel playing the way he is, I think we're seeing Narron recognize who the more valuable player is. I'm sure Freel we'll see the occasional day off, but I think Womack and Phillips are the better playing time comps at this point.

Didn't Womack start at 2B and bat eighth in the Reds' 1-0 win at St. Louis on April 14?

KronoRed
04-18-2006, 05:21 PM
Yeah.

I still like Phillips there better.

RedsManRick
04-18-2006, 06:04 PM
Didn't Womack start at 2B and bat eighth in the Reds' 1-0 win at St. Louis on April 14?

I stand corrected. He only got 1 AB which threw me off looking at the game log. He managed an AB and then was replaced by Aurilia for his 3rd AB. I think the general point remains -- Womack is not considered THE starter.

GridironGrace
04-18-2006, 06:30 PM
Takes away our everyday 3 hole hitter.

Best hitter on your team goes there, and regardless of how he's hitting this early he's the most patiant, and most veteran and therefore the best hitter we have. CONTACT wise.

I dont think it hurts us ALOT. Although it could towards the end of his stint on the DL with some pitchers we're gonna face.

I look forward to seeing how we play through this though. If we can continue to win ball games and score runs while he's on the DL then we'll be just that much better when he comes back.

Great test early in the season to play without a leader(well one of em). This is the kinda thing that builds team chemistry :)

4256 Hits
04-18-2006, 07:10 PM
2. My best guess is there's a 1 win difference between Griffey and Freel offensively.

.

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

You can't actually think that is true?

Reds1
04-18-2006, 07:55 PM
Griffey puts a bit hole in the line up. If he was out for long periods of time. He is a run producer that will be missed. Freel is just hot. He was 0-34 or something in the spring. His value is at leadoff, but much rather have Griffey in CF everyday.

butlerbulldogs
04-18-2006, 09:14 PM
griffey is much more important to the team than freel!!!

Henry Clay
04-18-2006, 09:45 PM
griffey is much more important to the team than freel!!!

Where Griffey's absence hurts the team is through the backup player at 2B in place of Freel. Griffey's absence doesn't give Freel playing time -- or at least it shouldn't, as Freel should be a starter. It gives more time to Womack and Phillips. I like Phillips, but he is no Griffey. I don't even need to bother comparing Womack to Griffey. In essence, Griffey is being replaced in the linueup by Phillips or Womack. I fail to see how that doesn't hurt the team on offense. The defensive point may hold, but the offensive deficit created by his absence is nothing minor. Griffey brings more than his own run production to the offense. His presence protects Dunn, Kearns, and the rest of the lineup.

WVPacman
04-18-2006, 11:47 PM
Reds | Griffey still working out
Tue, 18 Apr 2006 20:26:57 -0700

Updating a continuing story, Reds.MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports Cincinnati Reds OF Ken Griffey Jr. (knee) spent time working out and hitting in the batting cage Tuesday, April 18, despite being on the disabled list. Griffey is trying to work the soreness out and get himself back to normal.

membengal
04-19-2006, 10:28 AM
In a direct response to the question posed in this thread:

Not as much as Eric Milton NOT being on the DL is hurting the team...

Cooper
04-19-2006, 07:51 PM
4256 and others:

The last full year for both of them: Griffey produced 87 Runs created (2005). The last full year for Freel was (2004) -he produced 76 runs created. In a typical season 1 win =11 runs. That was my logic.

Overall the picture remains the same: Freel and Griffey are essentially of the same value at this point in their careers. You may quibble with the values but the point remains valid --has Griffey's demise hurt our offense (no)--has it hurt our defense (no).

I don't believe in protection (unless it involves birth control) and our replacements have a decent history of performance (though i would like to see some stats re: Phillips defense).

red-in-la
04-19-2006, 10:24 PM
The line up today should answer the question without need to study runs-created or VORP's or anything else.

Do you prefer Rich Aurilia hitting 3rd or JR?

Cooper
04-19-2006, 11:03 PM
does jerry narron's line up construction equal the true value of a ballplayer? of course not. that's silly. one does not have anything to do with another does it? do you base all your evals of players based on where they bat in a jerry narron line up? i.e. tony womak bats first--do you believe that makes him the best lead off hitter we have?

KronoRed
04-20-2006, 03:28 AM
Do you prefer Rich Aurilia hitting 3rd or JR?
Jr of course, but that's on Narron, should be Dunn.

REDJAKE
04-20-2006, 09:14 AM
I am amazed at the number of negative responses about Griffey and to compare a utility guy to the team leader is redicules. He has lost some skills all players do except the roid users but he is still the best overall player on the team(leadership.attitude.power,avg.,baserunning etc.) and if anyone on this team takes his place someday it would be the likes of Kearns,Lopez or Encarnacion not Freel.GO CINCY!!!!!

registerthis
04-20-2006, 09:37 AM
I am amazed at the number of negative responses about Griffey and to compare a utility guy to the team leader is redicules.

Redicules:

The Greek God of Sports Injuries.

Heath
04-20-2006, 10:07 AM
Redicules:

The Greek God of Sports Injuries.

Here's his tragic figure in action.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/news/2003/07/17/griffey_hurt_ap/t1_griffey_ap.jpg

REDREAD
04-20-2006, 10:15 AM
Ok, I'll say it. I think you could make the case that Griffey going on the DL doesn't hurt the team that much.
.

I just can't buy that logic.. You're saying that Freel moves to CF and Phillips moves to 2b.

So, in the lineup, you are replacing Jr, who last year posted 369 OBP/576 SLG for a 945 OPS with Phillips who is definitely challenged offensively.

Sure, the defense improves, but if those moves were truly equivalent, it seems like glove guys would be paid a premium, and sluggers that were defensively challenged (Manny Rameriz) would not be paid what they are, because a glove guy with no power and a low OBP would make just as much impact.

REDREAD
04-20-2006, 10:18 AM
4256 and others:

The last full year for both of them: Griffey produced 87 Runs created (2005).

How is that calculated?

SteelSD
04-20-2006, 12:49 PM
How is that calculated?

I'm assuming the wrong way because Griffey posted about 101 RC in 2005. Project Freel's 2005 and Griffey's 2005 over 600 PA and you've got a RC differential of about 30 RC.

That's about three Wins on the plus side for Junior.

Redmachine2003
04-21-2006, 08:52 AM
I just can't buy that logic.. You're saying that Freel moves to CF and Phillips moves to 2b.

So, in the lineup, you are replacing Jr, who last year posted 369 OBP/576 SLG for a 945 OPS with Phillips who is definitely challenged offensively.

Sure, the defense improves, but if those moves were truly equivalent, it seems like glove guys would be paid a premium, and sluggers that were defensively challenged (Manny Rameriz) would not be paid what they are, because a glove guy with no power and a low OBP would make just as much impact.Right now the best thing to do when Jr comes back is to leave Phillips at 2nd and Freel in the outfield and move Dunn to 1st. It improves the "D" and puts the best lineup on the field with RA as your supper sub.

Heath
04-21-2006, 09:26 AM
....puts the best lineup on the field with RA as your supper sub.


THAT IS IT! With RA being a supper sub, this picture NOW makes sense!

http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/sf/photo/2003_community/cookbook_aurilia_200.jpg

Redmachine2003
04-21-2006, 09:32 AM
THAT IS IT! With RA being a supper sub, this picture NOW makes sense!

http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/sf/photo/2003_community/cookbook_aurilia_200.jpgSorry typo, but that was good

Cooper
04-21-2006, 11:15 AM
The Hardball Times list Griffey with 87 runs created for 2005.

Griffey's defense cost close to 2 wins a year --there are 4 or 5 def. metrics which bare this out. Heck, you can see it.

If Freel is 3 wins below Griffey on offense --he's 2 wins better on defense--thus the overall net effect is close to break even. When you move Phillips to 2nd his defense makes up for his lack of offense relative to the player he replaced (Freel). What's clear is when Griffey is in center there's a poor allocation of resources which takes place. If he gets moved to LF then a reallocation can take place and the net effect is overall improvement.

REDJAKE
05-11-2006, 11:07 PM
Had To Bring This Back To Get Back At Griffey Doubters.go Cincy!!!!!

KronoRed
05-11-2006, 11:08 PM
Nobody argues JR isn't good on offense.

Nugget
05-11-2006, 11:16 PM
He also made a great catch in center - and none of the defense in CF tonight was bad - You have a different kind of CF in Junior these days. More the major general rather than the guy who thniks he can get to everything. The difference between Junior and Freel is that Junior knows his limitations.

kheidg-
05-11-2006, 11:17 PM
Nobody argues JR isn't good on offense.

He did have a nice catch in CF today as well.

Reds1
05-11-2006, 11:59 PM
The Hardball Times list Griffey with 87 runs created for 2005.

Griffey's defense cost close to 2 wins a year --there are 4 or 5 def. metrics which bare this out. Heck, you can see it.

If Freel is 3 wins below Griffey on offense --he's 2 wins better on defense--thus the overall net effect is close to break even. When you move Phillips to 2nd his defense makes up for his lack of offense relative to the player he replaced (Freel). What's clear is when Griffey is in center there's a poor allocation of resources which takes place. If he gets moved to LF then a reallocation can take place and the net effect is overall improvement.

Freel has been clueless. His running the bases could have cost us the game tonight. Jr. proved with his defense and offense and just being there this team is better. What a freakin line up. Awesome.

KronoRed
05-12-2006, 12:03 AM
He did have a nice catch in CF today as well.
That was good, but the trouble is how many balls will he reach over the year, it's less then avg, and with our pitching staff the concern is those are extra outs we have to have them get.