PROSPECT: Carlos Guevara - RHP [AA] 2003 draft (RD 7) DOB: 3-18-82

[BuckeyeRedleg]

2006 numbers so far (thru 6-14):

37.1 IP
30 H
13 BB
47 K
1.15 WHIP
2.65 ERA

Numbers coming into 2006, though 3 years of Rk, A, and A+:

158 IP
1.15 WHIP
11.82 K/9
3.13 BB/9
23 SAVES

Should we be excited about this guy? His numbers sure look good.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/carlos-guevara.shtml

[Ravenlord]

Should we be excited about this guy?
yes.

[flyer85]

He is not very tall with a slightly above average fastball BUT he has an out pitch that batters so far have not been able to hit or lay off of at any level. The pitch? The rarely seen these days screwball.

[lollipopcurve]

I'd keep in mind that, almost always, the big-time closers have the mid-90s heat and a good second pitch. I'm encouraged that Shafer and Guevara may be able to help in the pen (ETA 2007), but I think they're pre-9th inning guys.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Maybe a right-handed John Franco?

[flyer85]

The least of the Reds worries at this point is lack of a closer. They need some reliable relievers that can just get people out. With the current situation of the bullpen the need for a closer just won't come up all that often.

[lollipopcurve]

The least of the Reds worries at this point is lack of a closer.

I disagree. While marginal improvements in, say, pitchers 10-12 would help, I'd rather see a dominant arm at the back who pushes the worst pitcher off the team, makes pitcher 11 a garbage innings guy and gets Weathers/Mercker/Coffey out of the 9th inning. It's unlikely Krivsky will be able to find such a guy during the season, so your scenario of multiple mild upgrades is more likely now. Still, I think they have to have a shutdown guy to be a playoff contender in the near future.

[flyer85]

I disagree. While marginal improvements in, say, pitchers 10-12 would help, I'd rather see a dominant arm at the back who pushes the worst pitcher off the team, makes pitcher 11 a garbage innings guy and gets Weathers/Mercker/Coffey out of the 9th inning. It's unlikely Krivsky will be able to find such a guy during the season, so your scenario of multiple mild upgrades is more likely now. Still, I think they have to have a shutdown guy to be a playoff contender in the near future.If a closer is so important then lets hope they can conjure up one because he likely isn't in there organization at the moment.

Currently the reds bullpen is comprised of middle relievers and guys who shouldn't be on a major league roster. The first order of business is to replace the 3-4 guys that shouldn't be on a major league roster.

[lollipopcurve]

If a closer is so important then lets hope they can conjure up one because he likely isn't in there organization at the moment.

I suspect you're right.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I think there is still hope for Ryan Wagner.

[Doc. Scott]

I like Guevara and root for him, but don't expect him to start getting any respect any time soon. Until he impresses scouts with something besides his "trick" pitch, he'll have to pitch consistently well at every level.

But if the scroogie's that good or his fastball picks up some mustard, there's no reason he couldn't continue his success. He had a great outing yesterday for Sarasota (2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 5 K).

[dougdirt]

I think there is still hope for Ryan Wagner.

How about after his 4 run debacle today in Louisville.... Wagner seems to baffle me.

[reds2221]

Guevara could be the answers to our prayers. He's putting up good numbers

[flyer85]

He had a great outing yesterday for Sarasota (2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 5 K).that outing was for Chatanooga(AA)

[Marc D]

If a closer is so important then lets hope they can conjure up one because he likely isn't in there organization at the moment.

Currently the reds bullpen is comprised of middle relievers and guys who shouldn't be on a major league roster. The first order of business is to replace the 3-4 guys that shouldn't be on a major league roster.


Agree 100%.

Dominant talent is the ultimate goal but since we seem to have a slight shortage of that, I say focus on making sure all 11-12 guys are legit ML pitchers first.

As far as this guy goes, if he keeps posting numbers like that I don't care if he throws underhand. We need all the help we can get.

[Edd Roush]

Ladies and Gentleman,

With Guevara, could we be looking at a Chad Bradford type? After reading Moneyball in all of two days, I can't help but to make the comparison along the lines of amazing stats but doesn't exactly have a dominant closer's body?

As for the worries about the status of the current Reds' bullpen, I say we just all shake it off. I am a major fan of Todd Coffey and I believe the rest of the guys in the bullpen could do an average job. If we are still within two games of the division lead in late June, then we can worry about our bullpen seriously.

Right now, the backend of our rotation is what scares me. The lineup is solid but as we have learned through very tough lessons, that doesn't mean anything without performance from our pitching staff.

Haha, another random note, but I am very, very pleasantly surprised with the play thus far of one Scott Hatteburg. How great is it to recieve a .417 OBP from a position that was percieved to be a weakness? I have definately become enamoured with Billy Beane's 'Picking Machine.' But seriously, the Reds are making me feel very good as of this second. I guess comeback wins do that.

[Marc D]

As for the worries about the status of the current Reds' bullpen, I say we just all shake it off. I am a major fan of Todd Coffey and I believe the rest of the guys in the bullpen could do an average job. If we are still within two games of the division lead in late June, then we can worry about our bullpen seriously.

Right now, the backend of our rotation is what scares me. The lineup is solid but as we have learned through very tough lessons, that doesn't mean anything without performance from our pitching staff.



Not to get off the topic of carlos Guevara but its roughly 1/2 the staff that concerns me.

Harang, Claussen and Arroyo are average ML pitchers. Weathers, Mercker, and Coffey(so far) are the decent ML bullpen types. Thats 6 out of 12 who are legit ML pitchers and who could play for just about anyone.

That means you have 4-6 others, depending on your opinion of Williams and Milton, who range from either very bad to non-ML caliber.

We need as many Guevara's as possible to come up and fill those 4-6 spots with true ML talent/production before we can even dream of being a legit team.

[Edd Roush]

Yea, I follow you Marc. But does any one want WayneO to trade away what little minor league talent we have for formidable bullpenners? If we could sell Ross's and Phillips' stocks high, I could see us pulling in a couple of bullpenners. However, if we do it the old-fashion way and unload prospects, I think that would be a detrimental proposition considering this Reds' team will find it hard to legitamitely compete this year.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

2006 numbers so far (thru 6-14):

37.1 IP
30 H
13 BB
47 K
1.15 WHIP
2.65 ERA