PDA

View Full Version : Paul Daugherty needs to buy a clue



OnBaseMachine
04-20-2006, 08:44 AM
This guy has to be one of dumbest writers in baseball. How does he even have a job? Someone needs to tell this guy that a 493 foot home run is gone in any park, including Yellowstone. The Reds horrible pitching and great hitters make it look like a great hitters park, not the park itself.

Going yard, again and again and ...
Longball is way of life at GABP
BY PAUL DAUGHERTY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER

In the sixth inning Wednesday, someone named Reggie Abercrombie of the Florida Marlins hit a ball 493 feet to the upper-deck bleachers in left field at Great American Small Park. Reg-gie Reg-gie was hitting .080 three days ago. It was his first major-league home run. No surprise there.

You could hit a home run at GASP! So could I. So could Marty Brennaman, Paula Abdul, Boy George, the Olsen twins and Zippy the Singing Chimp.

The Cincinnati Reds don't need pitchers who can keep their pitches down. They need pitchers who can hit lots of home runs. That way, they would have a chance to smash as many homers as are smashed against them.


When does it stop being over-the-top silly at GASP!, and take the turn to borderline fraudulent?

The Marlins hit four homers Wednesday. They hit three the night before. That's seven in two games from a team that had 10 in its first 12 games. It didn't matter that the Reds and Marlins threw their aces. It didn't matter it's April. (Wait 'til it heats up; the ball will fly like a John Daly 3-wood.) It didn't matter that the wind didn't blow. It was bombs-away. In the left- and right-field bleachers at the smallpark, every day is Ball Day.

Afterward, Reds manager Jerry Narron applauded his team's pluck.

The Reds did rally from five runs down against Dontrelle Willis, so Narron had a point. Then the manager said this: "Last night, I felt like we could come back, even when we were down 10-2" in an eventual 12-6 loss. "Our guys really believe we're going to score some runs."

Why wouldn't they? Playing in the Small Park is like hitting fungos in a phone booth. Thirty-three homers already, in nine games. Tops in baseball, again. Last year, GASP! permitted 246 dingers, 13 more than the second-most generous park. In Cincinnati, Reggie Abercrombie is King Kong.

A problem with this is it messes with the integrity of the longball. The bigger problem, if you care about the home team, is that nobody with an option and No. 1-starter stuff will want to pitch here. The last thing a club that hasn't developed a starting pitcher in 20 years needs is a ballpark where free agents refuse to pitch.

You can look to other places as homer-friendly, but most come with alibis. Wrigley Field, when the wind blows out. Coors Field, because of the thin air. What's the excuse here? The only park close to this one in the National League is Minute Maid in Houston, and even there the distance increases significantly once you get away from the foul lines.

Narron even offered that the ball seems livelier this year. Conspiracy theorists would suggest that just because players aren't allowed to juice doesn't mean MLB can't juice the baseball. If as many balls fly out this year as in recent years, Baseball can argue that steroids didn't have as big an effect as supposed.

Regardless, GASP! remains a place where men are men and pitchers are scared. What do the Reds do about it? Should they do anything? Chicks dig the longball, not the fastball. Fences were moved in this year in San Diego and Detroit. The ball apparently does everything but half-gainers getting out of the new Busch Stadium.

But when does it start getting ridiculous? In Philadelphia, they decided it already had. After two seasons of 200-plus homers at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies moved the left-field wall back 5 feet and raised it from 8 feet to 101/2. Team spokesman Larry Shenk said the move already has taken away "four or five" home runs. The move also took out 196 seats, so don't hold your breath for the Reds to do something similar.

But the fact is, teams that win 9-8 don't win titles. Narron argues, "It's more (about) pitches than it is the ballpark. If you make good pitches, you have a chance to get guys out." If you don't, you're suffering whiplash watching balls exit the grass. Can a whole pitching staff go on the DL with neck sprains? Meanwhile, Reggie Abercrombie can't wait to come back.

E-mail pdaugherty@enquirer.com

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060420/COL03/604200342/1071

jredmo2
04-20-2006, 09:06 AM
I agree. Any scientific minds out there? The dimensions of GABP are really not that small, save for maybe the foul lines, but even those aren't so bad in comparison to most parks today. Is there a wind-tunnel things going on I'm not aware of? Do the Red seats trigger a hormonal change in batters?

The econ major in me is telling me that this is merely a correlation rather than causation. I'd say its probably more: (Reds pitchers suck)+(Reds hitters are really good)+(players for SOME UNKNOWN REASON!! are bigger) = lots of HRs

Or I guess maybe the toxins from the Ohio river mutate pop-ups into 493 foot home-runs... any radiologists here?

redsmetz
04-20-2006, 09:32 AM
I think Daugherty is spouting the conventional wisdom, but the above post makes me wonder about finding someone to plot all the homers hit showing where in the park, breaking it down by Reds and visitors, comparing innings in which they were hit, compare the pitchers (winning/losing, above league avg. ERA/below...), etc. Anybody got some time on their hands? Maybe I'll email Lonnie Wheeler and suggest a column.

big boy
04-20-2006, 09:56 AM
Wouldn't a 493 foot homer leave any yard? How far back does he propose they move the fence?

BuckWoody
04-20-2006, 10:00 AM
Remember, though, Daugherty is a columnist not a baseball writer per se. His main charge is to be entertaining and thought provoking on the subject of sports. We may not agree with what he's written here but I guarantee it will provoke some thought. :)

I wonder if analysis of the homers hit at the GABP will reveal any effect from the gap in the upper deck behind the visitors on-deck circle. Maybe there is a slip-stream that blows out to right field from there and any ball caught up in it gets an extra 10-15 feet...of course that doesn't explain the upper-deckers to left.

I guess I'm of the mind that there are three main factors in the number of homers at the GABP, in order: the Reds have some big hitters, the Reds have some lousy pitchers, the park itself (layout, location, and dimensions).

flyer85
04-20-2006, 10:07 AM
I think Daugherty is spouting the conventional wisdomI think conventional ignorance is the more apt description. The Marlins hit those HRs because the Reds pitching was awful. As the Marlins announcers commented yesterday "those would have been HRs anywhere". Using the park as an excuse doesn't cut it. Dontrelle kept the ball down and the Reds didn't come close to hitting a HR off of him.

Jerry Narron was exactly right, it's about the pitching, or lack of it.

Ravenlord
04-20-2006, 10:07 AM
some pitcher i found with 10 or more IP at GABP



- Career - GABP
Pitcher IP HR/9 IP HR/9
Belisle 101 1.07 49.1 1.09
Carpenter 1321.1 1.06 22 1.64
Claussen 256 1.23 140 1.29
Davis 906 0.96 34 1.06
Dempster 1085.2 1.04 58.1 1.23
Estes 1634.2 0.84 20 1.35
Hancock 96.2 1.96 36.1 2.48
Harang 550 1.16 218.2 1.44
Lidge 267.2 0.71 11.1 1.54
Maddux 4526.2 0.61 21 3.43
Marquis 735.1 1.17 36.1 1.49
Mercker 1286.2 1.04 64 1.69
Miller 859 1.04 16.1 1.65
Milton 1392.2 1.53 104 2.16
Mulder 1228 0.89 11 1.64
Ohka 864 1.06 29 1.55
Oswalt 1010 0.73 26.2 1.69
Perez 535.2 1.43 42 1.93
Pettitte 2122 0.73 25 0.00
Prior 613.1 1.00 19.2 0.00
Rusch 1323.2 1.12 16.1 1.10
Sheets 987.1 1.08 19 0.47
Suppan 1687.2 1.22 22.2 1.19
Torres 635.2 1.02 18.2 2.89
Williams 343.2 1.34 17 1.59
Williamson 393 0.69 22 0.82
Wilson 941.2 1.20 226 1.27
Wood 1109 1.00 44 1.43
Zambrano 785.2 0.68 30.1 1.19
i dont have time right now to figure WHIP or ERA, however at a glance while making this, the ERAs at GABP are going to be almost at their career norm.

flyer85
04-20-2006, 10:17 AM
GABP is a HR friendly ballpark, no one will deny that. However, the White Sox won the WS last year playing in an even more HR friendly park. Laying any blame on GABP for the Reds woes is a lame excuse, it is the abysmal pitching that is the Reds problem and it will be exposed in any ballpark. In other parks some of those HRs would be turned into doubles and triples.

The answer to the Reds problem is simple, GET BETTER PITCHERS!

indyred
04-20-2006, 10:54 AM
GABP is a HR friendly ballpark, no one will deny that. However, the White Sox won the WS last year playing in an even more HR friendly park. Laying any blame on GABP for the Reds woes is a lame excuse, it is the abysmal pitching that is the Reds problem and it will be exposed in any ballpark. In other parks some of those HRs would be turned into doubles and triples.

The answer to the Reds problem is simple, GET BETTER PITCHERS!
Last year GAB gave up more than the Cell and way ahead of everybody this season..........I'm in minority here......yes better pitching would help, but when is it coming.....it's catch 22......GAB is branded now as the worst pitching park in baseball and will not help them get any free agent pitchers.........would it hurt to raise the fence and move them back some in areas.....I do think psychologically it would help the pitching....right field is way too short.....370 in in right center is short...and it's only 325 down line in right....down both lines it's not deep enough......it's 404 in center, that's decent......take Jacobs Field it's center is 400, but deepest part of left center is 420.......and has mini green monster in left, where the fence is shorter down the lines, but you still got hit farther, over much higher fence.....most parks have deep areas in left or right center where it jets out deep, then comes back in in center or Miller Park is deeper down the lines, something like 342,...I'd like to see some character added to the distances in GAB, why not tinker with it.....there really is no dead zone in the outfield where pitcher can get bailed out........Minute maid is real short down both lines, but super deep in center....Just not really any pitcher friendley spots in GAB........

traderumor
04-20-2006, 11:05 AM
Lost in Paul's "analysis" was two very important facts.

1) The homer happy Reds did not hit a one yesterday. Why was that? Willis on the mound, hmmmmm. Harang admitted hanging one to Uggla that resulted in a 3 run homer. Abercrombie and Cabrera both reached the upper deck. It's called BP pitches these guys are getting. It's called Eric Milton on the mound.

2) The Marlins play in a park that is tough on the longball, helping to explain why they had so few homers prior to visiting Cincy.

This much is sure, GAB does give up some cheap homers, mostly to right center and down the right field line. But the gaps are small, and if we had anybody that could chuck, they would likely put up something like a Robin Roberts or Curt Schilling--lots of longballs and an ERA in the 2s or low 3s. But we don't, we have a staff of generally really bad pitchers. The only way that article would make any sense is if it was written tongue-in-cheek as Paul sometimes does, but clearly he was not here.

BCubb2003
04-20-2006, 11:07 AM
Is an "upper deck" home run at GABP the same kind of mammoth clout that an "upper deck" at Riverfront was? Is the GABP upper deck lower or closer?

flyer85
04-20-2006, 11:08 AM
Last year GAB gave up more than the Cell and way ahead of everybody this seasonRaw counts are not how ballpark factors are calculated. The factors are calculated by comparing how teams perform in one park in comparison to other ballparks.

Ballpark factors 2003-2005 form Baseball HQ
Factors are broken down for RH and LH hitters.

Of note


US Cellular LH HR +31 RH HR +37
Ameriquest LH HR +37 RH HR +6
GABP LH HR +17 RH HR +16
Citizens LH HR +21 RH HR +20
Coors LH HR +26 RH HR +18
Petco LH HR -22 RH HR -41


During this time run scoring for GABP is less than +5

And the most interesting, 2 with short porches in left and big RFs
Fenway LH HR -18 RH HR +13
Minute Maid LH HR -23 RH HR +33

flyer85
04-20-2006, 11:11 AM
Another issue,

would you want an OF of Dunn, JR and Kearns chasing down flyballs in a big outfield with a lot of ground to cover?

indyred
04-20-2006, 11:19 AM
Another issue,

would you want an OF of Dunn, JR and Kearns chasing down flyballs in a big outfield with a lot of ground to cover?

Good point......would need a CF that can cover some ground.......short term no......when a new CF comes aboard and Dunn goes to first...then yes..

redsmetz
04-20-2006, 11:20 AM
some pitcher i found with 10 or more IP at GABP



- Career - GABP
Pitcher IP HR/9 IP HR/9
Belisle 101 1.07 49.1 1.09
Carpenter 1321.1 1.06 22 1.64
Claussen 256 1.23 140 1.29
Davis 906 0.96 34 1.06
Dempster 1085.2 1.04 58.1 1.23
Estes 1634.2 0.84 20 1.35
Hancock 96.2 1.96 36.1 2.48
Harang 550 1.16 218.2 1.44
Lidge 267.2 0.71 11.1 1.54
Maddux 4526.2 0.61 21 3.43
Marquis 735.1 1.17 36.1 1.49
Mercker 1286.2 1.04 64 1.69
Miller 859 1.04 16.1 1.65
Milton 1392.2 1.53 104 2.16
Mulder 1228 0.89 11 1.64
Ohka 864 1.06 29 1.55
Oswalt 1010 0.73 26.2 1.69
Perez 535.2 1.43 42 1.93
Pettitte 2122 0.73 25 0.00
Prior 613.1 1.00 19.2 0.00
Rusch 1323.2 1.12 16.1 1.10
Sheets 987.1 1.08 19 0.47
Suppan 1687.2 1.22 22.2 1.19
Torres 635.2 1.02 18.2 2.89
Williams 343.2 1.34 17 1.59
Williamson 393 0.69 22 0.82
Wilson 941.2 1.20 226 1.27
Wood 1109 1.00 44 1.43
Zambrano 785.2 0.68 30.1 1.19
i dont have time right now to figure WHIP or ERA, however at a glance while making this, the ERAs at GABP are going to be almost at their career norm.

A few who jump out at me are Carpenter, Maddux and Oswalt, all of whom have higher home run ratios at GABP. And yet neither Pettite or Prior has given up a homer at the park. Interesting.

flyer85
04-20-2006, 11:21 AM
A few who jump out at me are Carpenter, Maddux and Oswalt, all of whom have higher home run ratios at GABP. And yet neither Pettite or Prior has given up a homer at the park. Interesting.Small sample sizes. The Reds starters are really the only ones with enough data to be really meaningful.

Ravenlord
04-20-2006, 11:25 AM
Small sample sizes. The Reds starters are really the only ones with enough data to be really meaningful.
yep. Dempster probably has enough too, especially now that he's in the pen. the ERA figure will be the interesting one, but i probably won't have that one done for a couple more hours (being distracted).

traderumor
04-20-2006, 11:48 AM
Went and watched the highlights, and why any writer would put their integrity on the line to say that it is the ballpark that resulted in the Marlins sudden power surge is beyond me. Abercrombie and Cabrera simply crushed fat pitches yesterday. Anyone that has even a cursory knowledge of the game would realize that it is Reds pitching that is turning all comers into the '27 Yankees.

traderumor
04-20-2006, 11:52 AM
Small sample sizes. The Reds starters are really the only ones with enough data to be really meaningful.Plus, you would have to consider a standard deviation to show whether any particular opposing pitcher's HR #s in GAB exceed mere chance. I'd bet the ranch that home run numbers would reduce in a linear fashion with respect to a reduction in ERA of our pitchers due to higher quality.

reds1869
04-20-2006, 11:56 AM
PD is a joke sometimes. The entire time I read this article, I thought of the Coors Field Myth. It has been proven by physicists that Coors Field's thin air affects ball flight only minimally; the same goes for the hot air/cold air argument. In some cases "common sense" and "conventional wisdom" are flat wrong when laid out next to science.

Why do balls go farther in Coors or GABP? Bad pitching. Why do balls go farther during late summer? Because hitters are in peak condition and pitchers are starting to wear down. That's a little over simplified, but it's not just my opinion either--I have read a lot to back it up. I would highly recommend the book The Physics of Baseball by Robert K. Adair to Mr. Daugherty.

KronoRed
04-20-2006, 03:54 PM
Wouldn't a 493 foot homer leave any yard? How far back does he propose they move the fence?
Kentucky?

How will the OF's deal with the river?:devil:

Matt700wlw
04-20-2006, 04:03 PM
He got a reaction, and people are debating what he wrote....he's done his job.

KronoRed
04-20-2006, 04:08 PM
Not really..I never buy his paper ;)

traderumor
04-20-2006, 04:09 PM
PD is a joke sometimes. The entire time I read this article, I thought of the Coors Field Myth. It has been proven by physicists that Coors Field's thin air affects ball flight only minimally; the same goes for the hot air/cold air argument. In some cases "common sense" and "conventional wisdom" are flat wrong when laid out next to science.

Why do balls go farther in Coors or GABP? Bad pitching. Why do balls go farther during late summer? Because hitters are in peak condition and pitchers are starting to wear down. That's a little over simplified, but it's not just my opinion either--I have read a lot to back it up. I would highly recommend the book The Physics of Baseball by Robert K. Adair to Mr. Daugherty.

I don't think Coors Field is a myth. Is there a link for the research you suggest says so?

I say we get the "Mythbusters" on this right away. :evil:

traderumor
04-20-2006, 04:11 PM
He got a reaction, and people are debating what he wrote....he's done his job.I'm glad I don't have a job that requires me to present arguments that rise me to the intelligence level of a baboon.

Hollcat
04-20-2006, 04:22 PM
24 of the 29 pitchers on that list have higher HR/9 rates at GABP than their career norms. True Abercrombies blast was gone regardless of where it was hit but Uggla's would not have been out at alot of places and Olivia's probably wouldn't have been out at Fla.

The upper deck in left at GABP is both closer and lower that the red seats at riverfront especially as you get away from the foul line.

Sweetstop
04-20-2006, 05:41 PM
I'm glad I don't have a job that requires me to present arguments that rise me to the intelligence level of a baboon.

Geez! A baboon?:D He's a columnist having a bit of flippant fun with the most obvious angle of the GAB homerun story. Sports is entertainment. I thought it was supposed to be fun, right? ;) I enjoy Paul's column.

traderumor
04-20-2006, 05:47 PM
Geez! A baboon?:D He's a columnist having a bit of flippant fun with the most obvious angle of the GAB homerun story. Sports is entertainment. I thought it was supposed to be fun, right? ;) I enjoy Paul's column.No, sports is not only entertainment. There is an element of entertainment, but it is also competition. Regardless, dumb arguments are dumb arguments whether you're writing about world peace or a dumb old baseball team. And his tongue wasn't in cheek, as I previously mentioned. The reasoning was so bad that you said "surely he's just funnin' us." Sadly, that does not seem to be the case in this column.

reds1869
04-20-2006, 05:52 PM
I don't think Coors Field is a myth. Is there a link for the research you suggest says so?

I say we get the "Mythbusters" on this right away. :evil:


The ball goes a little farther--about 7 feet according to Adair. While that will certainly make a difference on some homers (especially to guys with warning track power), the vast majority of homers clear the wall by much more than that. Even a ball hit into the front row at many major league parks comfortably clears by more than 7 feet. So will the numbers be inflated? A bit. But I would argue most of that comes from poor pitching/good hitting, not the altitude. One example I can think of is that Larry Walker's Rockies career stats are roughly the same in Coors Field as they are out of it.

In fairness, the Rockies website claims the ball flies 40 feet farther, but I tend to side with the Ivy League physics professor. Colorado is trying to sell a product, so "40 feet" is equivalent to "improved pitching" for the Reds.

traderumor
04-20-2006, 05:55 PM
The ball goes a little farther--about 7 feet according to Adair. While that will certainly make a difference on some homers (especially to guys with warning track power), the vast majority of homers clear the wall by much more than that. Even a ball hit into the front row at many major league parks comfortably clears by more than 7 feet. So will the numbers be inflated? A bit. But I would argue most of that comes from poor pitching/good hitting, not the altitude. One example I can think of is that Larry Walker's Rockies career stats are roughly the same in Coors Field as they are out of it.

In fairness, the Rockies website claims the ball flies 40 feet farther, but I tend to side with the Ivy League physics professor. Colorado is trying to sell a product, so "40 feet" is equivalent to "improved pitching" for the Reds.The team's offensive woes away from Coors does not hold up that theory.

reds1869
04-20-2006, 06:10 PM
The team's offensive woes away from Coors does not hold up that theory.

Then I stand corrected. I looked up some recent splits and you are right; I was thinking way back to the first years of the franchise, and the numbers are definitely more even then than now. In Walker's MVP year he actually hit better away from Coors.

I'm not much of a SABR type, I just go with my gut. Probably has a lot to due with being a musician. I was that was as a player and I'm that way as a fan; perhaps that why I no longer play or coach. :)

WMR
04-20-2006, 06:21 PM
I'm glad I don't have a job that requires me to present arguments that rise me to the intelligence level of a baboon.

Yeah, seriously.

Propagating incorrect theories backed up by shoddy reasoning isn't Paul Daugherty doing his job or being 'entertaining,' it's poor journalism.