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Newman4
04-21-2006, 11:29 AM
AB H 2B 3B HR BB AVG SLG OBP OPS

Player A 500 150 30 5 20 50 .300 .500 .400 .900

Player B 500 140 20 0 40 30 .280 .560 .340 .900


Just curious to see comments and reasoning.

Highlifeman21
04-21-2006, 11:34 AM
If I'm looking at A vs B correctly, I like A b/c he gets on base 6% more of the time than B, mainly due to 20 more walks in the 500 AB sample size. He also has 10 more 2B than B in the same 500 AB, as well as has 5 3B to B's 0, which leads me to believe A might have more speed than B and or run the bases better/more efficiently.

I vote A overall.

beb30
04-21-2006, 11:43 AM
It depends on what your lineup is, if your lacking power id take B. If you need more of a discipline hitter who can hit for avg, still has some pop, and gets on base obviously you take B.

HotCorner
04-21-2006, 11:44 AM
If I'm looking at A vs B correctly, I like A b/c he gets on base 6% more of the time than B, mainly due to 20 more walks in the 500 AB sample size. He also has 10 more 2B than B in the same 500 AB, as well as has 5 3B to B's 0, which leads me to believe A might have more speed than B and or run the bases better/more efficiently.

I vote A overall.

I would vote A as well for the above stated reasons.

smith288
04-21-2006, 11:53 AM
If the guy you are looking for is A, then Ill take B, if you like B, then ill take A simply because Im a butthead.

blumj
04-21-2006, 01:06 PM
Pretend there's no difference defensively or in the cost, and that's like choosing between Andruw Jones now, and Bernie Williams in his prime. I'd be very happy to have either one. I think I'd take Bernie, everything else being equal, which it obviously isn't, since I'd usually choose fewer outs over more power. But I think there's a case for each, depending on how much power vs. on base ability the team already has.

Johnny Footstool
04-21-2006, 01:08 PM
Player A, regardless of what your team is lacking. OPB is slightly more valuable than slugging.

BRM
04-21-2006, 01:15 PM
I want whichever guy K's the most.

Johnny Footstool
04-21-2006, 01:18 PM
I want whichever guy K's the most.

Good choice. He'd be a late-count hitter who saw more pitches and therefore burned up the opposing pitching staff, benefitting himself and the rest of the team.

BRM
04-21-2006, 01:21 PM
Good choice. He'd be a late-count hitter who saw more pitches and therefore burned up the opposing pitching staff, benefitting himself and the rest of the team.

The more I think about it, the more I agree with Raisor. I want to see the Reds K even more this year and still lead the league in runs scored. If they can break the all-time K record and runs scored record in the same year, that would be awesome. It will drive lots of people completely bananas.

rdiersin
04-21-2006, 01:46 PM
Well, first off these numbers don't seem to jive with me. For Player A to get an OBP of 0.400, he would have to be hit by a lot of pitches, well over 30, I think. But, for fun, just using the H, 2B, 3B, HR, and BB numbers I calculated the weights for singles, doubles, triples, homers, and walks and got an estimation for the runs.

R_hat=0.1889*1B+0.7083*2B+0.9901*3B+1.3166*HR+0.23 29*BB

(not bad quick and dirty estimation with a correlation coefficient of 0.9498)

Using this Player A's runs estimate is 82.13, while player B's is 88.93. So I pick player B.

(And yes, I have problems.:) )

blumj
04-21-2006, 02:03 PM
Good choice. He'd be a late-count hitter who saw more pitches and therefore burned up the opposing pitching staff, benefitting himself and the rest of the team.
Wouldn't pitches per plate appearance be a more accurate reflection than Ks? There are hitters who see a lot of pitches but don't K a lot.

Newman4
04-21-2006, 02:05 PM
Well, first off these numbers don't seem to jive with me. For Player A to get an OBP of 0.400, he would have to be hit by a lot of pitches, well over 30, I think. But, for fun, just using the H, 2B, 3B, HR, and BB numbers I calculated the weights for singles, doubles, triples, homers, and walks and got an estimation for the runs.

R_hat=0.1889*1B+0.7083*2B+0.9901*3B+1.3166*HR+0.23 29*BB

(not bad quick and dirty estimation with a correlation coefficient of 0.9498)

Using this Player A's runs estimate is 82.13, while player B's is 88.93. So I pick player B.

(And yes, I have problems.:) )

Player A has 150 hits and 50 BB = 200 /500 = .400??? Correct???

rdiersin
04-21-2006, 02:09 PM
Player A has 150 hits and 50 BB = 200 /500 = .400??? Correct???


Ah, no, that's the problem

OBP=(H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)

edabbs44
04-21-2006, 02:18 PM
I want whoever is scrappier. And if they are a middle infielder or a catcher, all the better.

Sincerely,
Jerry Wayne O'Brien

IslandRed
04-21-2006, 02:21 PM
Ah, no, that's the problem

OBP=(H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)

Yep. OBP is calculated based on plate appearances, not at-bats. Newman's hypothetical player A, with 500 at-bats and 50 walks, would have 550 plate appearances and an OBP of .364.

Raisor
04-21-2006, 03:22 PM
The more I think about it, the more I agree with Raisor. I want to see the Reds K even more this year and still lead the league in runs scored. If they can break the all-time K record and runs scored record in the same year, that would be awesome. It will drive lots of people completely bananas.


I have a minion now. That rocks.

BRM
04-21-2006, 03:23 PM
I have a minion now. That rocks.

Glad I can serve the awesomeness known as Raisor. I'll be a hated man now...

Johnny Footstool
04-21-2006, 04:44 PM
Wouldn't pitches per plate appearance be a more accurate reflection than Ks? There are hitters who see a lot of pitches but don't K a lot.

Guys who see a lot of pitches tend to walk and strike out more than guys who hit the ball earlier in the count. If you think about it, it makes sense.

Guys who can work the count, see a lot of pitches, and avoid K's are extremely rare.

TheGARB posted an excellent article on this subject. It's about halfway down the page.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45010&page=26

TRF
04-21-2006, 05:11 PM
I prefer Mt. Dew. really the best drink out there. If Player A drinks that, then I choose him/her.

Handofdeath
04-21-2006, 05:26 PM
Why do I get the feeling Adam Dunn is somehow involved in those stats?

TeamBoone
04-21-2006, 08:11 PM
Adam's 2005 numbers:

AB H 2B 3B HR BB AVG SLG OBP OPS

543 134 35 2 40 114 .247 .540 .387 .927

Newman4
04-23-2006, 01:29 AM
Yep. OBP is calculated based on plate appearances, not at-bats. Newman's hypothetical player A, with 500 at-bats and 50 walks, would have 550 plate appearances and an OBP of .364.

Hmm, guess I messed that up. Well, I intented (not very successfully I might add) to make the OPS equal obviously and make one player have a higher SLG and one higher OBP to illustrate my underlying question of "how important is consistency"?

I'm admittingly fairly new to indepth baseball statistics despite being a math instructor by trade and boasting a GRE score of 800 on the quantitative. But, I can't help but wonder why consistency is not mentioned more often in baseball statistics?

In watching the Reds lead the NL in many offensive categories this season and last, I have noticed that they will score lots of runs and win some games by blowout and then score very few runs in some games. Thus, not being very consistent.

Same thing with many players. For instance, some guys will have like 6-7 total bases one game then 0-1 the next.

Does anyone measure something like Runs Created with Standard Deviations?
Since Dunn was mentioned earlier, I think this may be the problem with some "non-stat" guys with valuing Dunn. They see him have one game going 2 for 3 with a homer and a double and 2 walks and then go 0 for 4 the next night with 3 Ks. What they would like to see would be something more "dependable" to for lack of a better word.

MWM
04-23-2006, 01:42 AM
I've always wondered about how consistency of runs impacts wins. But Pythagarus is so close almost all the time, that I'm not sure that the idea of large standard deviations really exist. In other words, I think it's one of those things that "seems" like is happening by watching, but when you go look at the numbers, it just isn't happening like we think it is. All teams have scoring binges and scoring droughts. I'm not sure it's a differentiating factor very often.

redsrule2500
04-23-2006, 03:41 AM
A

SteelSD
04-23-2006, 04:37 AM
In watching the Reds lead the NL in many offensive categories this season and last, I have noticed that they will score lots of runs and win some games by blowout and then score very few runs in some games. Thus, not being very consistent.

The Reds produced one of the most consistent RS patterns in MLB in 2005. There wasn't any "blowout" effect last year. The Reds scored enough runs to win a high percentage of the time but were let down by a pitching staff they had to outscore far too consistently.

Newman4
04-23-2006, 09:52 AM
The Reds produced one of the most consistent RS patterns in MLB in 2005. There wasn't any "blowout" effect last year. The Reds scored enough runs to win a high percentage of the time but were let down by a pitching staff they had to outscore far too consistently.

I believe I'm getting kinda hooked on this stuff lol. Where do you find statstics like that or do you have to calculate it yourself?

MWM
04-23-2006, 10:00 AM
If all the Reds players were on the free agent market, who would command the highest contract?

Newman4
04-23-2006, 10:20 AM
If all the Reds players were on the free agent market, who would command the highest contract?

Agent factor (i.e. Felipe/Boras) included or not?

TeamBoone
04-23-2006, 02:54 PM
I believe I'm getting kinda hooked on this stuff lol. Where do you find statstics like that or do you have to calculate it yourself?

My primary sources are ESPN.com and MLB.com

You have to play around with them some to get the hang of it (at least when you're working with Splits). I still haven't mastered it but I keep trying.

The fundamental stuff though, is pretty easy to work with.

Is anyone ever going to tell us who these players are?

TeamBoone
04-28-2006, 12:44 AM
HEY!

I'm bumping this because Newman never told us which two players we are looking at.

Jpup
04-28-2006, 03:15 AM
Whoever makes less outs is always the best choice.:thumbup:

JohhnyBench1001
04-28-2006, 09:30 AM
As has been stated it really depends on what you need in your lineup.....power or an OBP guy, but all things being equal I'll take A. Mainly because imo a guy who makes the fewest outs is the most valuable always imo.........lucky for us we have a guy who does both extremely well in Dunn.

westofyou
04-28-2006, 11:56 AM
HEY!

I'm bumping this because Newman never told us which two players we are looking at.


AB H 2B 3B HR BB AVG SLG OBP OPS

Player A 500 150 30 5 20 50 .300 .500 .400 .900

Player B 500 140 20 0 40 30 .280 .560 .340 .900
Maybe because they don't exist in real life

Player B only 6 times in the history of the game and Player A ony 3 times




GAMES YEAR G AVG OBA SLG
1 Andruw Jones 2005 160 .263 .347 .575
2 Ernie Banks 1960 156 .271 .350 .554
3 Willie McCovey 1963 152 .280 .350 .566
4 Harmon Killebrew 1963 142 .258 .349 .555
5 Jay Buhner 1995 126 .262 .343 .566
6 Ned Williamson 1884 107 .278 .344 .554

SEASON
AVERAGE BETWEEN .295 AND .300
OBA >= .400
SLG BETWEEN .495 AND .505

GAMES YEAR G AVG OBA SLG
1 Mel Ott 1942 152 .295 .415 .497
2 Gavvy Cravath 1914 149 .299 .402 .499
3 Jimmie Foxx 1941 135 .300 .412 .505

Newman4
04-28-2006, 12:08 PM
HEY!

I'm bumping this because Newman never told us which two players we are looking at.

I made them up entirely. It was my futile attempt at bringing up a discussion on how important consistency is in statistics such as OPS. If you want real players:

Compare Miguel Cabrera and Morgan Ensberg:

Cabrera:

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2005 Fla 158 613 106 198 43 2 33 116 64 125 1 0 .323 .385 .561 .946

Ensberg:

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2005 Hou 150 526 86 149 30 3 36 101 85 119 6 7 .283 .388 .557 .945

Basically the same OPS. I would rather have Cabrera. Reason? He's more consistent. This is where I believe Batting Average can be used to settle who is the better player when other stats are relatively even. Just my opinion.

ochre
04-28-2006, 12:15 PM
So, they are Jay Buhner and Gavvy Cravath? I've often wondered which of those two I'd rather have on my team.

SteelSD
04-28-2006, 12:34 PM
I made them up entirely. It was my futile attempt at bringing up a discussion on how important consistency is in statistics such as OPS. If you want real players:

Compare Miguel Cabrera and Morgan Ensberg:

Cabrera:

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2005 Fla 158 613 106 198 43 2 33 116 64 125 1 0 .323 .385 .561 .946

Ensberg:

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2005 Hou 150 526 86 149 30 3 36 101 85 119 6 7 .283 .388 .557 .945

Basically the same OPS. I would rather have Cabrera. Reason? He's more consistent. This is where I believe Batting Average can be used to settle who is the better player when other stats are relatively even. Just my opinion.


If you're looking for consistency, here's the thing...

The guy with the higher Isolated Discipline number <OBP minus BA> will be less prone to OBP "slumps" than will the guy with the lower IsoD. Couple that with the fact that Ensberg has the higher Isolated Power number as well <SLG minus BA> and it adds up to more consistency from an Ensberg profile over the long haul because that type of player is still producing opportunities during periods in which the Hits aren't falling.

registerthis
04-28-2006, 12:38 PM
A

I agree.

registerthis
04-28-2006, 12:41 PM
Basically the same OPS. I would rather have Cabrera. Reason? He's more consistent. This is where I believe Batting Average can be used to settle who is the better player when other stats are relatively even. Just my opinion.

That doesn't seem to follow logically, though. If Ensberg's OBP is equal with Cabrera's, despite having a lower BA, doesn't that make his OBP less BA-driven and less susceptible to hitting slumps?

EDIT: Never mind, just saw Steel's post, who explained it better than I did.

smith288
04-28-2006, 01:28 PM
Which player has more sacrifice flyouts? I cant make a decision until I know which player can do that rather than hit a homerun.

TeamBoone
04-28-2006, 01:53 PM
I made them up entirely. It was my futile attempt at bringing up a discussion on how important consistency is in statistics such as OPS.

Ah, ok. It never entered my mind that they weren't real.

Thanks for the explanation.

Newman4
04-28-2006, 02:13 PM
If you're looking for consistency, here's the thing...

The guy with the higher Isolated Discipline number <OBP minus BA> will be less prone to OBP "slumps" than will the guy with the lower IsoD. Couple that with the fact that Ensberg has the higher Isolated Power number as well <SLG minus BA> and it adds up to more consistency from an Ensberg profile over the long haul because that type of player is still producing opportunities during periods in which the Hits aren't falling.

Steel, the IsoD refers to basically how often the guy gets on base in ways other than hits and the IsoSlg is how often he gets hits that result in more than a single. Since both of these numbers are higher for Ensberg then obviously he A.) Walks at a higher rate B.) More of his hits are for extra bases. Correct? Cabrera gets hits at a higher rate. Correct?

SteelSD
04-29-2006, 03:12 AM
Steel, the IsoD refers to basically how often the guy gets on base in ways other than hits and the IsoSlg is how often he gets hits that result in more than a single. Since both of these numbers are higher for Ensberg then obviously he A.) Walks at a higher rate B.) More of his hits are for extra bases. Correct? Cabrera gets hits at a higher rate. Correct?

You are correct on IsoD. IsoP is basically additional bases after the first acquired per Hit.

Players with higher IsoD and higher IsoP rates tend to be more consistent than more BA-driven guys because they tend to provide more opportunity when the Hits aren't falling and tend to produce higher quality Hit events even when acquiring few during a slump.

A good familiar example would be Adam Dunn from April 18th to April 25th this year. During that span, Dunn went 2-for-24 at the plate. But hidden in that slump are the 11 Bases on Balls Dunn also acquired. Those Walks don't help the Slugging Percentage during a slump like that, but Dunn produced a .371 OBP during those 8 games (13 non-Out events/35 Plate Appearances).

That's an extreme advantage for a team from a consistency standpoint because the lineup is a dynamic system over the course of a season. Slumps are unpredictable within the context of your day-to-day lineups. The key is non-Out event quality. Teams that produce higher non-Out event quality over time tend to produce more consistent Run Scoring patterns as well as Run Scoring volume due to the fact that the slumping portion of the lineup will still be able to produce non-Out events. Basically, high IsoD/IsoP guys who you don't think are doing stuff during a slump might actually be doing a lot more for the team than low IsoD/IsoP guys.

Secondary Average might also be another excellent tool to use, but that's a statistic for another day.

And my apologies for not responding to your earlier question about how to find things like Run Scoring pattern data. Yes, I looked up the data on the number of Runs Scored per game by every MLB team last season.

GridironGrace
04-29-2006, 05:22 AM
Player A will have MORE runs scored and MORE RBI's with those EXTRA Base Hits and all those Walks

I'd take Player A all Day over player B

KronoRed
04-29-2006, 05:27 AM
C

Newman4
04-29-2006, 08:58 AM
Yes, I looked up the data on the number of Runs Scored per game by every MLB team last season.

Good lord, Steel how do you have time to do that? I do good just to find the time to check on Redszone occasionally between work and family. Wow, how long did that take?

RedlegJake
04-29-2006, 10:45 AM
I can't choose until I see which one has the most sac flies.

SteelSD
04-29-2006, 11:26 AM
Good lord, Steel how do you have time to do that? I do good just to find the time to check on Redszone occasionally between work and family. Wow, how long did that take?

Didn't take long. I'm scrappy.