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Rex Argos
04-22-2006, 10:25 PM
The Marty/Dunn thread has brought up a lot of discussion about the value of statistics. Much of that discussion has focused on Dunn's ability/inability to hit with RISP--the old "clutch" argument. One poster mentioned that Dunn's OPS with RISP was over 1.000. That OPS would suggest that Dunn is indeed a solid clutch hitter. But my question is this: what's the league average OPS with RISP? Can any of you statheads provide the answer?

MWM
04-22-2006, 10:41 PM
Last year Pujols had a 1.093 with RISP and Dunn had 1.042. Lance Berkman was at .829 and Andruw Jones was at .721.

The league average was somewhere around .760, which turns out to be right about the overall league average OPS.

Cyclone792
04-22-2006, 10:41 PM
This should give you the answers to what you're looking for, and more ...



Major League splits 2001-2005

2005
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Total 68435 166335 22325 43991 8863 888 5017 21248 15207 1216 30644 1797 1620 1315 18 1946 3912 2565 1069 .264 .330 .419

Situation AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
None On 94735 2847 24419 4972 534 2842 2842 7491 2 17586 935 0 0 6 919 0 0 0 .258 .318 .412
Men On 71600 19478 19572 3891 354 2175 18406 7716 1214 13058 862 1620 1315 12 1027 3912 2565 1069 .273 .345 .429
RISP 41410 16716 11038 2225 231 1227 15709 5489 1214 8054 559 707 1315 3 604 1467 649 179 .267 .350 .420
Bases Loaded 3977 3413 1101 227 20 132 3164 271 0 822 51 2 336 0 84 276 0 1 .277 .307 .444


2004
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Total 68880 167353 23376 44522 8919 898 5451 22248 16222 1380 31828 1850 1731 1363 20 2032 3786 2589 1100 .266 .335 .428

Situation AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
None On 94614 3154 24836 5027 521 3145 3145 7901 19 17994 866 0 0 6 965 0 0 0 .262 .325 .426
Men On 72739 20222 19686 3892 377 2306 19103 8321 1361 13834 984 1731 1363 14 1067 3786 2589 1100 .271 .348 .430
RISP 42090 17318 11118 2249 245 1299 16267 5971 1350 8366 641 734 1363 7 639 1434 616 191 .264 .354 .422
Bases Loaded 4198 3701 1159 246 28 133 3430 329 0 848 64 2 355 1 78 318 0 5 .276 .314 .443


2003
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Total 68532 166737 22978 44057 8827 934 5207 21886 15889 1316 30801 1849 1626 1336 12 2042 3850 2573 1132 .264 .333 .422

Situation AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
None On 94621 3052 24431 4981 498 3048 3048 7837 7 17683 894 0 0 6 975 0 0 0 .258 .321 .418
Men On 72116 19926 19626 3846 436 2159 18838 8052 1309 13118 955 1626 1336 6 1067 3850 2573 1132 .272 .347 .427
RISP 41875 17168 11171 2232 277 1241 16151 5729 1306 8103 639 671 1336 3 633 1428 632 201 .267 .354 .422
Bases Loaded 4043 3608 1152 222 32 123 3371 326 0 821 64 2 358 0 66 313 1 3 .285 .322 .447


2002
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Total 68345 165582 22408 43272 8700 921 5059 21332 16246 1452 31394 1746 1633 1399 9 2055 3846 2750 1282 .261 .331 .417

Situation AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
None On 94374 2954 24231 5041 498 2948 2948 7974 12 17993 859 0 0 3 937 0 0 0 .257 .320 .414
Men On 71208 19454 19041 3659 423 2111 18384 8272 1440 13401 887 1633 1399 6 1118 3846 2750 1282 .267 .345 .420
RISP 41569 16844 10990 2175 270 1209 15843 5849 1434 8305 573 698 1399 2 670 1395 670 257 .264 .353 .417
Bases Loaded 4043 3523 1129 249 39 125 3304 268 0 836 57 5 393 1 79 307 0 2 .279 .305 .453


2001
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Total 68510 166234 23199 43879 8813 928 5458 22087 15806 1384 32404 1890 1607 1424 15 2133 3653 3103 1408 .264 .332 .427

Situation AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
None On 95108 3218 24594 4922 533 3212 3212 7750 6 18662 980 0 0 1 1037 0 0 0 .259 .321 .423
Men On 71126 19981 19285 3891 395 2246 18875 8056 1378 13742 910 1607 1424 14 1096 3653 3103 1408 .271 .347 .432
RISP 41283 16983 10981 2327 237 1199 15942 5828 1374 8567 587 720 1424 6 645 1333 871 272 .266 .354 .421
Bases Loaded 3949 3575 1149 260 36 134 3330 255 0 840 55 4 362 0 75 286 0 1 .291 .316 .477

MWM
04-22-2006, 10:53 PM
And Mr. Clutch himself, Big Papi had an OPS of 1.042 last year with RISP.

Newport Red
04-22-2006, 10:54 PM
This really adds nothing to the conversation but it is topical.

http://www.livescience.com/othernews/050505_clutch_hitters.html


Study Reveals Baseball's Great Clutch Hitters
By LiveScience Staff

posted: 05 May 2005
05:01 pm ET



A baseball fan and statistics buff has proven that clutch hitters really do exist, putting statistics behind the obvious.

The new study, by math and economics student Elan Fuld of the University of Pennsylvania, was announced by the university Thursday.

Fuld defined a clutch hitter as one who hits better at more important moments. He studied stats on 1,075 Major League players in the 1974-1992 seasons.

Factors determining a clutch hit: how many bases were occupied, the score at the time, the inning, and how many outs. He also counted sacrifice flies, in which a runner scores but no hit is recorded.

"What I found was that, when I included sacrifice flys in the analysis, there was overwhelming evidence that there were clutch hitters," Fuld said.

So who were the greatest under pressure? Frank Duffy, Eddie Murray and Luis Gomez stood out.

Bill Buckner, known as a choke artist for his Game 6 World Series error in 1986 that many remember as costing Boston the championship, was statistically proven to be a clutch hitter, too.

Fans and players have always known there's a lot of psychology to hitting.

"Once situational importance rose to around at least a certain level," Fuld explained, "the player would start to think this is very important and start doing something that makes him hit better, if he's clutch, or panics and does something that makes him hit worse, if he's a choke hitter."







Boston Red Sox first baseman Bill Buckner is a picture of dejection as he leaves the field after committing an error on a ball hit by New York Mets Mookie Wilson which allowed the winning run to score in the sixth game of the World Series, Saturday night, Oct. 25, 1986 in New York. AP PHOTO/Rusty Kennedy

> Click to View



While a Baltimore Oriole, Eddie Murray hit two home runs Wednesday August 14, 1996 against the Milwaukee Brewers in Baltimore. AP Photo/John Mummert

Rex Argos
04-22-2006, 11:09 PM
So, the league average OPS with RISP is around .770-.775. I think we can then make the conclusion that AD does just fine with RISP. Would that be a fair conclusion to everyone on the board?

MWM
04-22-2006, 11:11 PM
So, the league average OPS with RISP is around .770-.775. I think we can then make the conclusion that AD does just fine with RISP. Would that be a fair conclusion to everyone on the board?


:clap: :clap: :clap:

RisingReds
04-22-2006, 11:11 PM
I really like adam dunn, and i think he will get better with age, but sometimes i dread seeing him come up with runners on 3rd base and one out, he's so likely to strikeout.

forfreelin04
04-22-2006, 11:25 PM
Granted Dunn has a high OPS with RISP but are these numbers inflated due to his talent of usually hitting a long ball no matter what? I would enjoy if one of you fine people would bring me up the stats to show what Dunn's probability to to do one of the following A) walk B) K C)HR or D) other. I think those numbers would be pretty telling.

forfreelin04
04-22-2006, 11:30 PM
I really like adam dunn, and i think he will get better with age, but sometimes i dread seeing him come up with runners on 3rd base and one out, he's so likely to strikeout.

I agree but keep in mind Marty always aknowledges Dunn's negatives but rarely his positives.

However, Dunn's problem is he see runners in scoring posistion and changes his approach at the plate. It's a fallacy to tell batters to change their approach with RISP. They think that putting in the ball in the play is a must. This is certainly not true considering your liable to swing at bad pitches when tempted to put the ball in play no matter what. Dunn seems to do this. He has a different approach when he bats with no runners on. He focuses on getting on base and getting his pitch. If he would use the same approach with RISP I think his AVG with RISP would elevate quite steadily.

paintmered
04-22-2006, 11:33 PM
Granted Dunn has a high OPS with RISP but are these numbers inflated due to his talent of usually hitting a long ball no matter what? I would enjoy if one of you fine people would bring me up the stats to show what Dunn's probability to to do one of the following A) walk B) K C)HR or D) other. I think those numbers would be pretty telling.


Ask and you shall receive. From 2003-2005:



By Situation AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS SO% BB% HR%
1B Only 285 35 77 12 1 22 46 63 7 90 10 3 0.270 0.414 0.551 0.965 31.58% 22.11% 7.72%
Bases Loaded 40 52 8 3 0 4 33 7 0 20 0 0 0.200 0.300 0.575 0.875 50.00% 17.50% 10.00%
Close and Late 228 44 55 11 0 19 44 50 5 87 3 0 0.241 0.385 0.539 0.924 38.16% 21.93% 8.33%
First and Second 110 42 29 8 0 8 43 20 6 37 1 0 0.264 0.404 0.555 0.959 33.64% 18.18% 7.27%
First and Third 46 23 9 1 0 4 21 16 1 15 4 1 0.196 0.400 0.478 0.878 32.61% 34.78% 8.70%
Lead Off Inning 377 0 100 22 2 30 30 35 3 110 0 0 0.265 0.333 0.573 0.906 29.18% 9.28% 7.96%
Man on 3rd, <2 out 72 62 16 5 0 7 54 24 2 28 1 1 0.222 0.404 0.583 0.987 38.89% 33.33% 9.72%
Men On, 2 out 278 85 60 14 0 12 62 94 2 105 11 2 0.216 0.417 0.396 0.813 37.77% 33.81% 4.32%
None On 842 64 208 47 2 64 64 106 10 277 0 0 0.247 0.338 0.536 0.874 32.90% 12.59% 7.60%
None On, 1/2 out 445 32 105 25 0 32 32 68 5 160 0 0 0.236 0.344 0.508 0.852 35.96% 15.28% 7.19%
None On/Out 397 32 103 22 2 32 32 38 5 117 0 0 0.259 0.332 0.567 0.899 29.47% 9.57% 8.06%
On Second 116 31 25 8 0 6 25 58 1 37 3 0 0.216 0.480 0.440 0.920 31.90% 50.00% 5.17%
On Third 33 15 6 2 0 3 14 14 0 5 0 0 0.182 0.426 0.515 0.941 15.15% 42.42% 9.09%
Runners On 650 218 159 34 1 49 196 190 17 212 18 5 0.245 0.424 0.526 0.950 32.62% 29.23% 7.54%
Scoring Position 365 183 82 22 0 27 150 127 10 122 8 2 0.225 0.431 0.507 0.938 33.42% 34.79% 7.40%
Scoring Posn, 2 out 166 78 36 11 0 9 55 69 1 57 7 1 0.217 0.449 0.446 0.895 34.34% 41.57% 5.42%
Second and Third 20 20 5 0 0 2 14 12 2 8 0 1 0.250 0.543 0.550 1.093 40.00% 60.00% 10.00%



Edit: Added percentage of HR, K and BB for each situation.

IslandRed
04-22-2006, 11:34 PM
Granted Dunn has a high OPS with RISP but are these numbers inflated due to his talent of usually hitting a long ball no matter what? I would enjoy if one of you fine people would bring me up the stats to show what Dunn's probability to to do one of the following A) walk B) K C)HR or D) other. I think those numbers would be pretty telling.

They wouldn't tell us anything about Dunn everyone doesn't already understand.

But your use of the word "inflated" is telling. ;)

Rex Argos
04-22-2006, 11:37 PM
Based on the previous stat (thanks), Dunn either walks or strikes out in half of his plate appearance with RISP. Interesting.

LoganBuck
04-23-2006, 12:10 AM
Rex read this
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45168&page=2

Patrick Bateman
04-23-2006, 09:19 AM
Granted Dunn has a high OPS with RISP but are these numbers inflated due to his talent of usually hitting a long ball no matter what?

Isn't that like saying that a player's BA is inflated due to his ability to get hits?

A HR increases one's OPS because it increases OBA and SL%. THe word "inflates" suggests some artificial increase. There's nothing less artificial than a HR.

westofyou
04-23-2006, 10:57 AM
There's nothing less artificial than a HR.
Aside from some of the anaylsis on this board you're probably right.

PTI (pti)
04-23-2006, 11:26 PM
The problem with Dunn is that he either hits a home run, strikes out, of walks EVERY SINGLE time to the plate - which is very frustrating to watch, in my opinion.

One poster mentioned that his OPS was high due to hitting a lot of home runs w/RISP, but I think we all know that probably isn't the case, as AD seems to hit most of his with the bases empty. In fact, I'd say his OPS w/RISP is helped most by his On-base %, which in his case is due to the fact that he walks so much. Most would agree that if you've got 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd, a walk isn't what you're looking for out of AD.

Bill James is the mack daddy of sabermetrics, but sometimes it's frustrating trying to analyze all of his different stats. Dunn's OPS w/RISP may be equal to Big Papi's, but is there a single manager in all of baseball that would rather send Dunn to the plate that Ortiz in that situation?

Redmachine2003
04-23-2006, 11:50 PM
I think the best way to look at this is with runners in scoring position Dunn gets the job done less than 20% of the time if you factor in walks, since most walks do not drive in runs.

Caveat Emperor
04-23-2006, 11:57 PM
Dunn's OPS w/RISP may be equal to Big Papi's, but is there a single manager in all of baseball that would rather send Dunn to the plate that Ortiz in that situation?

To be fair...If I pick Dunn, can I still ask for Manny Ramirez to be standing in the on deck circle while he bats?

You know...just to remind pitchers that there are consequences for junkballing Dunn the same way there are consequences for Junkballing Ortiz?

IslandRed
04-24-2006, 12:43 AM
I think the best way to look at this is with runners in scoring position Dunn gets the job done less than 20% of the time if you factor in walks, since most walks do not drive in runs.

What you mean by "gets the job done" brings up a fundamental issue with the way folks look at RISP situations.

In any given inning, a team is trying to do one of two things: 1) Maximize the potential for scoring runs or 2) Maximize the likelihood of scoring one run. There are certain late-game situations where #2 is more appropriate strategy. Most of the time, #1 applies. (At least in this era where it takes five or six runs... ok, we're the Reds, seven or eight runs to have a good chance of winning most days.)

When many folks talk about RISP situations, they seem to mentally flash to that ninth-inning tie-game deal and believe that in any RISP situation, the only thing that matters is getting that runner home. It's then easy to devalue walks (which don't score runners unless the bases were loaded) and home runs (what difference does it make if the hitter scores?). But in the vast majority of RISP situations, "runners in scoring position" is just another name for "we've got a rally going." In a rally, you're trying to hang up as big a number as you can. Walks are great in a rally. Extra-base hits are the bomb. You don't want your power hitters choking up trying to hit singles or giving themselves up to advance runners, you want them to keep the rally going.

With the Reds having productive hitters all up and down the lineup, it may not be good for the RBI total of the player in question to draw a walk but it's usually good for the team. It's more runners on base for the next guy who can also rake.

paintmered
04-24-2006, 12:45 AM
What you mean by "gets the job done" brings up a fundamental issue with the way folks look at RISP situations.

In any given inning, a team is trying to do one of two things: 1) Maximize the potential for scoring runs or 2) Maximize the likelihood of scoring one run. There are certain late-game situations where #2 is more appropriate strategy. Most of the time, #1 applies. (At least in this era where it takes five or six runs... ok, we're the Reds, seven or eight runs to have a good chance of winning most days.)

When many folks talk about RISP situations, they seem to mentally flash to that ninth-inning tie-game deal and assume that in any RISP situation, the only thing that matters is getting that runner home. It's then easy to devalue walks (which don't score runners unless the bases were loaded) and home runs (what difference does it make if the hitter scores?). But in the vast majority of RISP situations, "runners in scoring position" is just another name for "we've got a rally going." In a rally, you're trying to hang up as big a number as you can. Walks are great in a rally. Homers are great. You don't want your power hitters choking up trying to hit singles or giving themselves up to advance runners, you want them to keep the rally going.

With the Reds having productive hitters all up and down the lineup, it may not be good for the RBI total of the player in question to draw a walk but it's usually good for the team. It's more runners on base for the next guy who can also rake.

:clap: Excellent post!