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View Full Version : Your opinions on Chris Denorfia as an everyday player



OnBaseMachine
04-22-2006, 11:51 PM
I was looking at the Louisville boxscore a little while ago, and I noticed that Chris Denorfia had another 3-for-5 day and it got me to thinking. Do you think he can be an effective everyday player? If so, you do you think he compares best to?

I am of the opinion that he can and will be a very productive player in center field - both offensively and defensively, if given the chance. Up until last year I thought he compared favorably to Brady Clark, you know... because of the scrapiness factor and the fact that he was a late round draft pick(19th rounder in 2002)... Clark was signed as an undrafted free agent in 1996 by the Reds.

Other than the scrapiness and being late round draft picks, Denorfia and Clark have plenty of other similarities: Size and build, above average speed and defensive skills, can hit for average, willingness to take a walk, neither are prolific strikeout hitters, both were always a bit older than their competition in the minors, and both were blocked behind the outfielders in Cincinnati. But the one difference in the two in my opinion, is Denorfia may possess a little more power. Clark never hit more than 17 home runs or slugged over .516 in a minor league season - 1999 at Chattanooga(506 atbats). His major league career high is 13 home runs and a .426 slugging, last year for Milwaukee(599 atbats).

Denorfia really found his power stroke last season in Chattanooga. In 188 atbats, Denorfia hit 7 home runs and slugged .564, earning a promotion to Louisville where he proceeded to hit 13 more home runs and SLG .505 in 323 atbats. Overall between AA, AAA, and the majors, he hit 21 home runs and hit 62 extra-base hits in 549 atbats. He will not hit 30 home runs in a major league season, however, I could see him hitting 18 to 20 dingers a year.

Brady Clark has put up a career .280/.359/.399-.758 statline through 1780 plate appearances in the major leagues. In a very, very, very small sample size, Chris Denorfia has put a .300/.391/.475-.866 statline in 46 plate appearances. Again, a very small sample size but impressive numbers nonetheless.

If given the opportunity to start everyday, I could see him as a .285/.370/.440-.475 type of hitter, plus he brings that much needed defense in center field. I hope that he gets a chance to prove that he can be an everyday player with the Reds. Move Dunn to 1B, trade Griffey or move him to LF, stick Denorfia in center and watch the outfield defense improve.

Thoughts?

Falls City Beer
04-22-2006, 11:53 PM
Get him up here, let him kick arse for a few weeks and trade him for some pitching.

flyer85
04-23-2006, 12:00 AM
He really blossomed as a player last year. Is he an everyday player? Only know that when he gets a chance, only an injury or a trade would afford that opportunity with the Reds.

Cyclone792
04-23-2006, 12:03 AM
If given the opportunity to start everyday, I could see him as a .285/.370/.440-.475 type of hitter, plus he brings that much needed defense in center field. I hope that he gets a chance to prove that he can be an everyday player with the Reds. Move Dunn to 1B, trade Griffey or move him to LF, stick Denorfia in center and watch the outfield defense improve.

Thoughts?

Great post, OBM, and I definitely agree with you on Denorfia. I know M2 and Team Clark gave out some "scouting grades" on Denorfia, and they graded him both very well in scouting terms. I posted about this when the Arroyo/Pena trade originally went down, but it bears repeating ...

I could easily see Denorfia giving us 10-11 offensive win shares and 5-7 fielding win shares in center field over a full season. If Denorfia breaks out a bit past expectations, he could even get in the 13-15 range for offensive win shares, which would push him near or possibly over the 20 win share plateau after including his fielding. That's roughly about 15-20 win shares total when you add it up.

Additionally, when I look at how Denorfia will accumulate those 15-20 win shares, I like him even more. He won't do it with gaudy stats such as a high BA or high home run totals that spikes the salary demand upward. His production is such that his 15-20 win shares will likely always be exceptionally cost efficient in salary.

reds44
04-23-2006, 12:07 AM
He is good, but not as good as Dunn, Junior, Freel, Kearns, or BP who he would be taking PT from if he was in the majors right now.

Steve4192
04-23-2006, 12:26 AM
You beat me to the Brady Clark comparison. I think Denorfia could be a slightly better version of Brady Clark. Not the kind of guy you want to build around, but he certainly could be a quality contributor until he hits his arbitration years and his salary starts to get out of whack.

IslandRed
04-23-2006, 12:38 AM
I think he can be a solid regular, not an All-Star but a useful player. I wasn't completely convinced going into this season, as his resemblance of a good major-league hitter came pretty late and he only had 300-some at-bats in AAA. So far, it's looking like he's building on last year's improvement, and worth being included in the argument as Krivsky makes over the roster.

KronoRed
04-23-2006, 12:47 AM
I think he could be just as good as a lot of outfielders currently playing ball, and his D would be worth it alone on a team with such defensive trouble as the Reds.

WMR
04-23-2006, 01:15 AM
He is good, but not as good as Dunn, Junior, Freel, Kearns, or BP who he would be taking PT from if he was in the majors right now.

Not if our roster was being utilized properly he wouldn't.

Plenty of PT for everybody with Deno in the mix, you just gotta subtract a few others: Woe GONE w/ Aurilia relegated to an even bigger back-up role and Hat primarily a PH'er.

Exactly where is Junior playing right now?
Plenty of room, esp. right now.

(Dunn at 1st)

GAC
04-23-2006, 07:51 AM
Get him up here, let him kick arse for a few weeks and trade him for some pitching.

There you go! ;)

IMO - finding youg OFers like this are a dime a dozen.

Jay Bruce anyone?

WMR
04-23-2006, 08:02 AM
I'm not against trading Deno if he'll next NICE prospects.

Griff is not long-term.

Deno, Cyclone discussed earlier, projects to create the sort of offense that gernerally allows teams like the Reds to keep him long-term.

I see Deno in my long term Reds plans.

If he's traded, he'd better net a NICE NICE return, because if we can't get that, he can fulfill a valuable role with the big club for at least the next 10 years. I do believe that.

GAC
04-23-2006, 08:10 AM
I'm not against trading Deno if he'll next NICE prospects.

Griff is not long-term.

Unless he retires though, he is here for the next couple of years... and in CF (regardless of what some suggest).


Deno, Cyclone discussed earlier, projects to create the sort of offense that gernerally allows teams like the Reds to keep him long-term.

I see Deno in my long term Reds plans.

Which could be a possibility. But right now - there just isn't any room for him this season. I'm glad he has options.


If he's traded, he'd better net a NICE NICE return, because if we can't get that, he can fulfill a valuable role with the big club for at least the next 10 years. I do believe that.

And where does Jay Bruce - who is playing pretty darn good in Dayton, fit into that equation? I could see him stepping in 2-3 years down the road if all goes well. ;)

We have options with Deno, and if the scenario presents itself, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

Krusty
04-23-2006, 12:37 PM
Krivsky likes the kid and I think he will be back up if Krivsky moves either Kearns or Junior sometime this season.

westofyou
04-23-2006, 12:42 PM
Unless he retires though, he is here for the next couple of years... and in CF (regardless of what some suggest).
Disagree, the mans legs will push him aside eventually. A smart team doesn't keep him there, all one has to do is picture Mays in a Mets uniform to see where its headed.

wheels
04-23-2006, 12:44 PM
It's the same deal as Brandon Phillips.

They need to upgrade the middle of the defense, and Denorfia does just that.
Whatever he gives them with the bat is a bonus.

They've got offense to spare, but if configured properly (as so many have stated) they won't lose any of the main cogs.

It would basically swap out Hatteberg and Aurilia.

4256 Hits
04-23-2006, 02:01 PM
I think will fall in between other older late round OFers Brady Clark and Stephen Smitherman; with much closer to Clark.

WVRedsFan
04-23-2006, 02:32 PM
He is good, but not as good as Dunn, Junior, Freel, Kearns, or BP who he would be taking PT from if he was in the majors right now.

BINGO!

We already have better up with the club. I've never understood the love affair for Chris. He appears, at least to me, to be a bench player.

Cyclone792
04-23-2006, 02:53 PM
We already have better up with the club. I've never understood the love affair for Chris. He appears, at least to me, to be a bench player.

Denorfia does things that many people inaccurately undervalue, such as taking walks, hitting a fair amount of doubles and playing outstanding defense in center field. Last season the average major league center fielder put up a .757 OPS, a figure that Denorfia could easily surpass if he played every day.

Essentially, he's a very inexpensive solution already in the organiztion that helps alleviate a massive problem with this club by playing outstanding defense, and his offense would be above average for his position.

Add it up and we've got ourselves a nice, young, inexpensive and overall solid center fielder. Too bad this organization has yet to figure that out.

GAC
04-23-2006, 04:15 PM
Disagree, the mans legs will push him aside eventually.

Sure, that is obvious. But when is "eventually"? And I'd love to see a JR position move. But it just hasn't happened, and Jr has something to do with that IMO.


A smart team doesn't keep him there, all one has to do is picture Mays in a Mets uniform to see where its headed.

Well there you go! :lol:

KronoRed
04-23-2006, 04:23 PM
And where does Jay Bruce - who is playing pretty darn good in Dayton, fit into that equation? I could see him stepping in 2-3 years down the road if all goes well. ;)

He'll replace Dunn who will move to 1st.

GAC
04-23-2006, 04:35 PM
He'll replace Dunn who will move to 1st.

That's been floated around by fans.... but where has that even been mentioned by management? Has to be a reason why.... and I believe it's because Dunn has put up strong resistance at playing 1B.

KronoRed
04-23-2006, 04:43 PM
Well then he'll replace Dunn when he moves on in 3 years, his future is 1st or DH, he needs to accept it, if he won't sign on here at 1st then he'll be moving on.

GAC
04-23-2006, 04:51 PM
Well then he'll replace Dunn when he moves on in 3 years

Who replaces Dunn in 3 years? Denorfria? You think he is gonna sit for 3 years in the minors waiting to play on the major league level, waiting for the possibility of Dunn moving on?

I have no problem with Dunn in LF. I've seen far worse.

KronoRed
04-23-2006, 04:52 PM
No, Bruce.

GAC
04-23-2006, 04:54 PM
No, Bruce.

That's Jr's replacement. ;)

KronoRed
04-23-2006, 05:06 PM
Nah, JR's replacement isn't around yet..he's playing for Tampa :D

GAC
04-23-2006, 05:31 PM
But Bruce has been tabbed the "next" Edmonds. ;)

KronoRed
04-23-2006, 05:32 PM
I hope not..freaking hot dog :lol:

corkedbat
04-23-2006, 06:43 PM
I actually prefer Phillips at 2b for D and Freel in CF for his ability at the top of the lineup. Now if they can somehow deal KGJ and move Dunn to first, I'd be fine w/Deno.

I'd keep the catchers fresh, but wouldn't mess with the current lineup though (including Aurillia @ 1B).

GAC
04-23-2006, 10:03 PM
I actually prefer Phillips at 2b for D and Freel in CF for his ability at the top of the lineup. Now if they can somehow deal KGJ and move Dunn to first, I'd be fine w/Deno.

I'd keep the catchers fresh, but wouldn't mess with the current lineup though (including Aurillia @ 1B).

If they could deal Jr (he'd have to Ok any trade), then that would be ideal. But I just don't see that as a viable scenario. Maybe as a DH, and with a team that will contend. But Jr's list is so small, it makes it almost an impossibility IMO.

My own personal feelings are that they are grooming a kid like Jay Bruce to be Jr's replacement in a couple of years when his contract is up.

I like Deno... but I bet he is gone at some point or time in a trade. Especially the way he is performing at AAA. Time is not on his side. You're talking about a guy who will 27/28 by the time Jr is ready to hang it up. And right now, there just is not any room for him on the 25 man roster.

People see the problem being solved by moving Dunn to 1B. But I'm telling ya right here and now - the reason Dunn is not playing 1B is because Adam Dunn has told them (in a private kind of way) it's not his bag. ;)

Because I have no problem with Dunn at 1B, and a Freel or Deno in the OF. But one must ask themselves why it hasn't happened?... and why it won't once Jr is back. ;)

It would be nice if they would DFA Womack. It's a possibility. But then they still have to pay him the remainder of the 1 Mil, unless someone picks him up. I really don't see anyone doing that.