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View Full Version : Do you guys think Brandon Phillips is for real, and if he is....



G-nati
04-23-2006, 09:00 PM
Could this be one of those cases where a former prospect who was suppose to have it all but just didn't pan out suddenly breaks out with a change of scenery?

And! If so would you move....Freel to the Tigers for Fernando Rodney to be our closer?

I like Freel and I know he is a valuable player for the Reds, but the bottom line is some players are going to have to go if the team is going to get pitching and get back to being any kind of contender.

The Tigers signed Todd Jones to a big contract so he is going to be their closer as long as he comes back healthy anyway.

I'm sure Freel could start over Craig Monroe who I believe the Tigers are starting in left right now.

If I could get a decent starter for Freel I would rather go that way and try to move Todd Coffey into the closer role eventually, but I haven't really looked at any deals for starters yet. I just happened to think about the Freel/Rodney deal when Phillips exploded on the scene and Jones came off the DL.

Whatta ya think?

redsfan30
04-23-2006, 09:14 PM
As highly regarded as Brandon Phillips was coming up through the minors, I'm going to believe he is for real until he proves me otherwise.

A fresh start and a spot everyday in the lineup can do wonders for young kids, and we're seeing it with Brandon.

guttle11
04-23-2006, 09:16 PM
Who knows? I don't think there is much chance he can keep up at his current pace, but I think he can be a very good second basemen for the Reds.

Danny Serafini
04-23-2006, 09:47 PM
I'll believe it when I see it. He's going to have to put up a full season of solid play to make me believe the past couple years of sucking weren't a total mirage. If he can do it, great, I'm just not sure he can.

Heath
04-23-2006, 09:50 PM
This happens more often than not. The "rejected" guy feeling a groove.
Talk to me in September.

Red Daddy
04-23-2006, 09:53 PM
I absolutely believe that this guy is for real. He was in the majors at 21. He is 5-tool. His only weakness is a low oba. He doesn't walk very much. I think what we are seeing is what this kid is going to do for a long time.

Krivinski did a great job in getting Phillips.

This now gives the Reds Dunn, Kearns, Encarnacion, Phillips, and Lopez. This is a solid, young group of players.

OldRightHander
04-23-2006, 09:58 PM
Krivinski did a great job in getting Phillips.


Wayne's cousin?

cincyinco
04-23-2006, 10:01 PM
I've always been a fan of Brandon Phillips from his days in the Montreal system... His "breakout" could very well be legit.. but I'm holding my enthusiasm until he does this for more than a week or two. Lets see how he holds up over the course of the year before proclaiming him part of the young nucleus.

As for the trade idea.. I'm hesitant.. Rodney has really only had 1 good year - and that was last year. Before that two years of 6+ ERA's. If I'm Krivsky, I'd target a guy like Zumaya from the Tigers instead. And I'm not sure Detroit would trade him. But thats the kind of value I place on Freel. He's better than a Rodney in a trade IMHO.

MWM
04-23-2006, 10:03 PM
I don't think so. He swings at everything. Those guys get hot from time to time, which he is right now. But sooner or later pitchers figure out that they don't have to throw them strikes and they return to their old performance. I hope I'm wrong, but until he exhibits some patience at the plate, I won't believe what we're seeing now is the real Brandon Phillips. I think he's benefitting quite a bit from coming up with lots of runners on base when he's seeing a lot of strikes.

pedro
04-23-2006, 10:05 PM
He's doing well now b/c teams are throwing him strikes and challenging him. His success will be determined by what he does when they stop.

flyer85
04-23-2006, 10:08 PM
Don't know the answer for the Long term but I would ride the wave for the moment

bengalred
04-23-2006, 10:11 PM
It's too early to completely judge this guy, but what has Phillips done that would make me not want to like him? And I would never want to trade Freel. He is a complete pest on the bases, and his presence works wonders in our lineup.

cincyinco
04-23-2006, 10:13 PM
Phillips has never really taken a lot of walks... but he hasn't alway's K'd a ton either.. His K rate is not obscene.

Cedric
04-23-2006, 10:18 PM
Phillips is gonna walk about 45 times in 500+ at bats. If he can hit even .280 with his speed/defense he is a valuable player for this team.

Heath
04-23-2006, 10:45 PM
Wayne's cousin?

no, he was this guy's cousin from Da Bears -

http://snl.jt.org/arc/char/George%20Wendt-Bob%20Swerski.jpg

Topcat
04-24-2006, 03:13 AM
I'll believe it when I see it. He's going to have to put up a full season of solid play to make me believe the past couple years of sucking weren't a total mirage. If he can do it, great, I'm just not sure he can.


Be honest if he knocks in 70 rbi's and gives a solid glove, how will that not show decent progress. Yes I am loving what he has done but jesus, the doom and gloom negativity of he never walks blah blah blah is pathetic. get behind the kid he is a RED !, 85 wins is what i want for this team. progress begins with a simple improvement. So far there has been 2 pieces in Arroyo and Phillips. Optimism is all a fan can have. If I lose that. Then why even care about baseball?

StRedlegs900
04-24-2006, 03:25 AM
Be honest if he knocks in 70 rbi's and gives a solid glove, how will that not show decent progress. Yes I am loving what he has done but jesus, the doom and gloom negativity of he never walks blah blah blah is pathetic. get behind the kid he is a RED !, 85 wins is what i want for this team. progress begins with a simple improvement. So far there has been 2 pieces in Arroyo and Phillips. Optimism is all a fan can have. If I lose that. Then why even care about baseball?

Yea, I'm going to have to agree. Only a few years ago, this guy was the the #1 position player prospect in all of baseball. That doesn't happen for no reason. The kid's got talent, and the talent that I'm most interested in is his defense. He robbed 2 hits today, and one with the bases loaded. If BP is not at 2nd, then Harang doesn't have his shutout.

The guy has simply been in the zone of late, and it shows you what he can do. I don't buy any of this "he's benefiting from people throwing strikes..blah blah blah". He has been in the 6, 7 and 8 spots in the lineup. Usually you don't get a lot to hit there, b/c the pitcher is coming up soon. He hasn't swung at every bad pitch he's seen (unlike what Dunn has seemed to do lately, and nobody hates on him for good reason), and hasn't struck out that much.

Everyone seemed ok with this trade b/c of his defense. Consequently, his defense has been very, very good up the middle, and now people are upset b/c he's had 17 RBI in one week? If you ask me, this was a great trade and the kid is for real. Even if he is just in the zone, do you think you'll ever see Womack put up 17 RBI and a .459 or something average in one week? Just that potential alone gets me excited.

westofyou
04-24-2006, 12:14 PM
Phillips is gonna walk about 45 times in 500+ at bats. If he can hit even .280 with his speed/defense he is a valuable player for this team.
That's a pretty big walk total for BP, in 3551 AAA ab's he walked 111 times, that's Shawon Dunston country, 1 every 31 AB's (WMP is 1/17) in 475 MLB ab's it's been 1 BB every 25 ab's.

Players like BP are great when they are hot (Jeff Francour) but when they are cold it's cold...... but he should pile up some RBI's in this lineup, provide speed and defense... that's needed and as long as they don't pay out the nose for the batting part of his game down road.


I don't buy any of this "he's benefiting from people throwing strikes..blah blah blah". So he's going out of the zone for all those ab's? And this is a good approach?

flyer85
04-24-2006, 12:19 PM
That's a pretty big walk total for BP, in 3551 AAA ab's he walked 111 times, that's Shawon Dunston country, 1 every 31 AB's (WMP is 1/17) in 475 MLB ab's it's been 1 BB every 25 ab's.The data I am looking at says he walked 230 times in around ~2700 minor league ABs.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/brandon-phillips.shtml

Caveman Techie
04-24-2006, 12:23 PM
I am cautiously optimistic. I would like to see some more patcience from him at the plate, but it's hard to argue with the results so far.

westofyou
04-24-2006, 12:23 PM
The data I am looking at says he walked 230 times in around ~2700 minor league ABs.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/brandon-phillips.shtml
That's his whole ML total, but now that I've gone back I read the AAA ab's wrong.

My bad... it's 1/12.5 in AAA so maybe he can reach Ceds predictions.

My bad...doh

But heres the link I got it from

http://www.forecaster.ca/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?3061

RedsManRick
04-24-2006, 12:26 PM
I think I want to see the other side of this coin before making any judgements. Will he maintain 17 RBI/week? Ummm, no. Could he possibly be a .270/.330/.400 guy with plus defense. Yeah, I think so. But he could play the rest of the year every day and if you gave me an over/under of 12 HR & 70 RBI I'd most certainly take the under.

At any rate, if he can play plus defense at 2B while not embarrasing himself offensively, I think either he of Freel needs to be in the game as much as possible.

Red Leader
04-24-2006, 12:28 PM
I always thought when he was a highly touted prospect in the Expos system that he was billed as a 30/30 guy. When the Colon deal went down and Phillips was dealt to Cleveland, I swear they said he'd be a potential 30/30 guy for the next 5-10 years. Huh? From what I saw in his minor league stats, his success rate in SB's is pretty awful, and he hasn't swiped more than 25 bags in a season. Not that I care, I was just surprised to see this when I pulled up his stats today.

I like Phillips. He's real good on defense (as advertised), and has simply been on fire at the plate. I don't think he'll keep that up all year, but obviously, the guy does have some offensive talent. I'll take that out of a 2B any day of the week. IMO, he's a better option than Aurilia, Womack, Bergolla, or Olmedo.

toledodan
04-24-2006, 12:47 PM
That's a pretty big walk total for BP, in 3551 AAA ab's he walked 111 times, that's Shawon Dunston country, 1 every 31 AB's (WMP is 1/17) in 475 MLB ab's it's been 1 BB every 25 ab's.





if he is anywhere close to the player dunston was he will be in great shape. lets face it he doesn't draw walks now or in the past. still he was rated one of the best prospects in all of baseball. people need to let him be the player that he is. he is agressive early in the count and seems to be rewarded for it. on the other hand dunn takes alot of pitches and either walks, strikeouts or homers. some players feel better when they see a pitch early and know they can handle it.

Mario-Rijo
04-24-2006, 12:49 PM
I don't think so. He swings at everything. Those guys get hot from time to time, which he is right now. But sooner or later pitchers figure out that they don't have to throw them strikes and they return to their old performance. I hope I'm wrong, but until he exhibits some patience at the plate, I won't believe what we're seeing now is the real Brandon Phillips. I think he's benefitting quite a bit from coming up with lots of runners on base when he's seeing a lot of strikes.


Jeff Francoeur of the Braves is feeling the return of this syndrome. He had a very good rookie season at the tender age of 21. Of course his #'s at 1st glance are deceiving .336 OBP in 257 should mean he's doing a ok job of walking but interestingly enough he had 11 walks all of last year. He also had 58 k's, so over a 500+ AB season you are looking @ 25 walks and 120 k's. IF he can gain some degree of discipline on pitches he can't possibly hit and continue to make good contact on those pitches around the zone wow.

Recognizing& making the small adjustments is what this game is all about. Take this for example I remember hearing at the beginning of last season during a Reds-Cubs game that Derek Lee had made one slight improvement in the offseason (don't recall the exact subtle change), to his
approach at the plate. What happened? You know the rest, but take a good look at his stats from '04 and before to '05, it's staggering. His career highs were as follows (and they were good, so the light was already on).

Pre-'05
32 Hr's ('04)
39 Dbls. ('04)
98 RBI ('04)
95 Runs ('02)
305 TB's ('04)
.282 Avg. ('01)
.379 OBP ('03)
.508 SLG. ('03)
.887 OPS ('03)
98 Walks ('02)
164 K's ('02) (Avg. roughly 127 '00-'04 minus '02)

'05
46 HR's
50 DBL's
107 RBI
120 Runs
393 TB's
.335 Avg.
.418 OBP
.662 Slg.
1.080 OPS
85 BB
109 K's

The difference? Pitchers were getting him out inside on the hands pre-05, whatever the change was sealed up the hole. What's it equal? From very good to HOF perhaps at least to maybe even one of the most famed hitters ever depending on how he does from here on especially if this wrist problem doesn't linger. (Are you listening Adam/Chambliss).

The moral here for Francoeur and more importantly for Phillips is don't stop working towards being more disciplined and everywhere else for that matter. They don't have to take a bunch of walks to be highly productive (as evidenced by Lee's drop in BB's) but they do have to stop swinging at crap. Which incidentally I haven't seen enough of Phillips to say he does that, so i'll take yor guys word on it. I have seen him take some close ones though.

They all have great talent and even though they don't walk much (roughly 2:1 K/BB for Lee, somewhat reasonable for a power hitter) they seem to all have similiar approaches to the plate. So get some discipline and then by all means swing away.

smith288
04-24-2006, 12:58 PM
I think Brandon just has really good plate coverage. It looks like he can attack the ball where ever they put it. His double down the 3rd base line was a inner half curve ball I think and he jumped on it with a pretty quick bat.

Its not like they are lollipopping it in there... his recent success hasnt gone unnoticed by the Brewers or any other team he has faced but im sure there will be a nicely bound DanO styled binder on BPs tendencies in the near future that will start to limit his successes.

lollipopcurve
04-24-2006, 01:26 PM
Yeah, Phillips is definitely the answer at 2B. Good D and a dangerous bat. 24/25 years old. The fact that he isn't flashing Anderson Machado-like patience at the plate isn't getting me down somehow.

He'll cool off, of course, and have bad streaks, of course, but he's got a ton of talent, and he's young.

Bravo Krivsky.

westofyou
04-24-2006, 01:42 PM
if he is anywhere close to the player dunston was he will be in great shape.Until he costs money... Some teams 'shouldn't' pay a lot for guys who feel comfortable swinging over waiting for their pitch. There was a time that Dunston was too expensive for the amount of outs he made.

It's bound to happen with those type of hitters, that's why I prefer them to play skill positions like Dunston and Phillips, that way you assured of getting something from them every game.

TRF
04-24-2006, 02:22 PM
Considering age, and the likelyhood that all are ensconced at their current positions likely for the rest of the year, I'd like a comparison and career projection of BP, EE and FeLo.

Youth in the infield and tremendous range on both sides of the SS position. I think we'll see FeLo's range improve this year over last as he'll be 2 years removed from that borken ankle that nearly cost him his career.

51roscoe
04-24-2006, 02:24 PM
I have a pretty good feeling that B. Phillips is for real. Of course his stats won't stay at the current level, but who's would? He is lights out right now.
But, I do think he is an excellent pick-up and should be the regular at 2B.

KoryMac5
04-24-2006, 02:32 PM
looking at his career minor league numbers he should stay around .260 15 hr and 60rbi's or so. Not bad for a player to be named later.

max venable
04-24-2006, 02:41 PM
As highly regarded as Brandon Phillips was coming up through the minors, I'm going to believe he is for real until he proves me otherwise.

A fresh start and a spot everyday in the lineup can do wonders for young kids, and we're seeing it with Brandon.
Remember when we were all saying the same thing about D'Angelo Jimenez? :evil:

51roscoe
04-24-2006, 02:45 PM
True; I don't know what happened to Jimenez. I hope the same doesn't happen with Phillips.

KronoRed
04-24-2006, 03:43 PM
Phillips is gonna walk about 45 times in 500+ at bats. If he can hit even .280 with his speed/defense he is a valuable player for this team.
Agreed, and if he gets hot now and then all the better, he's here (to me) for D

redsfanmia
04-24-2006, 04:06 PM
I dont care if he walks 10 times all year he makes this team better because of his glove. How many hits has he already taken away since he has been here? I know of atleast 4. If he can hit around 270 or so and get 60 rbi's then thats gravy IMO.

smith288
04-24-2006, 04:08 PM
True; I don't know what happened to Jimenez. I hope the same doesn't happen with Phillips.
What happened to Jimenez was Sean Casey went and cried to management that D'Angelo was a meanie while D'Angelo was struggling.

smith288
04-24-2006, 04:10 PM
I have heard that BP's faults were that he convinced himself he was a power hitter after a few shots early on in his career. I noticed one thing he said during his post game interview that Chambliss has convinced him he is a "singles" hitter... Which is good stuff because if he focuses on singles, the homeruns come naturally.

membengal
04-24-2006, 04:44 PM
I have heard that BP's faults were that he convinced himself he was a power hitter after a few shots early on in his career. I noticed one thing he said during his post game interview that Chambliss has convinced him he is a "singles" hitter... Which is good stuff because if he focuses on singles, the homeruns come naturally.

Given how fast Phillips gets his bat through the hitting zone, that's a very true statement. Solid contact from Phillips will beget plenty of power, without him trying to hit for power.

membengal
04-28-2006, 10:41 PM
Just bumping this back up, after Phillips put on another show tonight. Most impressive...the speed to manufacture the second run, including the heads up baserunning to score on Claussen's grounder (he got a helluva jump on contact on that one).

And...with that 0-2 count...getting enough of a nasty pitch to drive it back up the middle. Very impressive.

I know he isn't walking, but he puts the bat on the ball with authority. That's a nice start.

Wheelhouse
04-28-2006, 10:44 PM
Look, he's for real. He was the NUMBER ONE shortstop prospect in baseball when he was traded to the Indians.

UGADaddy
04-28-2006, 10:51 PM
Even if Phillips is the real deal, who's going to hit leadoff? I'd keep Freel and use him in different spots. If you want to trade someone for pitching, I'd use one of the catchers or the new Ross.

Betterread
04-28-2006, 11:01 PM
I have changed my view of him. He has exceeded the expectations I had when we traded for him. He is a good fielder (which I was aware of), has a quick swing and more power than I was aware he had. I think he realizes that this is his best chance to be seen as a Major league starter and he is really helping the Reds right now.

toledodan
04-28-2006, 11:10 PM
his bat speed along with his defense will make him a all-star down the road.

MWM
04-28-2006, 11:36 PM
I will say that was a nice piece of hitting in his last AB when he drove in those final two runs.

membengal
04-29-2006, 04:40 PM
I will say that was a nice piece of hitting in his last AB when he drove in those final two runs.

More nice work from him today, including, again, fine use of his wheels to manufacture a run.

The Baumer
04-29-2006, 05:02 PM
I'm sorry to say this, but he isn't real. In fact, there is no one on the Reds' roster by the name of Brandon Phillips. Brandon Phillips is the name of the sheriff on the old western series you used to watch as a child.

Is there anyone else who you "see" when you watch the Reds on television?

fisch11
04-29-2006, 10:08 PM
I'm keeping my fingers crossed. All I know is he is electric. The stadium rocks when this guy steps into the box. It's exciting to watch a young guy find success and bring energy to everybody in the organization.

dougdirt
04-29-2006, 10:13 PM
I'm keeping my fingers crossed. All I know is he is electric. The stadium rocks when this guy steps into the box. It's exciting to watch a young guy find success and bring energy to everybody in the organization.

Its because of his song when he comes up to the plate

KronoRed
04-29-2006, 11:12 PM
He took a walk.

I'm now a fan :D

GAC
04-30-2006, 07:14 AM
Could this be one of those cases where a former prospect who was suppose to have it all but just didn't pan out suddenly breaks out with a change of scenery?

The Indians put too much pressure on this kid and expected him to be their star everyday 2Bman at age 21. They handed it to him, and showed very little patience.

And then along came Belliard, they ran out of options on BP and had to do something.

He improves our defense at 2B, and in the INF overall.

He's still a kid and needs to learn patience at the plate.

Does he have the mindset/batting eye to do so? Only time will tell (and a good batting coach).

SirFelixCat
04-30-2006, 07:21 AM
The Indians put too much pressure on this kid and expected him to be their star everyday 2Bman at age 21. They showed very little patience.

And then along came Belliard, they ran out of options on BP and had to do something.

He improves our defense at 2B, and in the INF overall.

He's still a kid and needs to learn patience at the plate.

Does he have the mindset/batting eye to do so? Only time will tell (and a good batting coach).


I agree, Gac. But I will say, while it's only 1 AB, his final AB yesterday (as well as Kearn's AB where he got down 0-2, battled back to 3-2 and lined a shot up the middle), really leads you to believe that he is learning.

And his heady plays on the basepath yesterday were just a thing of beauty.

Dare I say, but Jr. seems to be the odd man out with this team...

membengal
04-30-2006, 10:19 PM
Four walks in two days, including three on Sunday, including a damn fine effort to get on base in the 9th when he took some nasty pitches.

Another small step forward for my new favorite Red...

pedro
04-30-2006, 10:23 PM
He really strikes me as the type of guy who's minor league numbers over last couple of years might be more reflective of the fact that he didn't give a crap than his talent level, which appears to have a good bit of.

Red Heeler
04-30-2006, 10:51 PM
He really strikes me as the type of guy who's minor league numbers over last couple of years might be more reflective of the fact that he didn't give a crap than his talent level, which appears to have a good bit of.

I think you may be correct about this. However, I'm not sure that that is a good thing. He could go all Pokey on the team if the losing begins. From the couple of interviews that I've seen, he seems to understand that his approach has been wrong the last couple of years. Lets hope that he has matured and taken it to heart. If so, the Reds could have something really special on their hands.

M2
04-30-2006, 11:11 PM
pedro, I like the undermotivated theory. Like Heeler said, guys like that are always scary. Even if he's over the irk of being down in the minors, guys like that usually don't have to look too hard to find something else to bother them.

Then again, pro sports are full of gameday players.