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OnBaseMachine
04-25-2006, 07:17 AM
Reds are smart to keep Bailey in minors
By Marc Katz

Staff Writer

Sure, if I were running the Reds, Homer Bailey would be up with the big club right now, sitting on the bench a couple days to soak up the atmosphere, then firing that 97 mph fastball past Albert Pujols and the big curve past everybody else.

But, like the Reds, I can wait a little longer, too. After all, Bailey's 20th birthday isn't until next Wednesday.

Still, there was muted talk over the weekend that Bailey might be called up from "high" Class A Sarasota for a spot start until Reds General Manager Wayne Krivsky put the kibosh to it. Reds minor league pitching coordinator Mack Jenkins in Dayton to check on the Dragons also thought it was a bad idea, for now.

"There's a history of guys having a terrible debut and taking a long time to recover," Jenkins said. "For me, there is no positive in taking him up."

Jenkins does admit Bailey who pitched with the Dragons last season is on a fast track.

"If he progresses this year the way we expect, he would be a candidate for the big club in mid '07," Jenkins said.

Bailey is 1-2 with a 3.98 era in four starts at Sarasota. He has struck out 20 and walked five.

Bailey is not yet on the 40-man roster, where he has to be to get called up. Then, he'd have three options back to the minors. To use up one of those options now would seem premature.

How about this: mid-2007 with the Reds, Opening Day starter 2008.

That's still a rush, but Bailey's moving fast.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/content/sports/reds/daily/0425audible.html

KronoRed
04-25-2006, 03:23 PM
That's still too fast IMO

How bout mid 08 and and a starter (not opening day) in 09.

Why rush and ruin?

Aronchis
04-25-2006, 03:50 PM
Bailey will be called when his strikeouts increase and ERA drops. Simple as that. Whether it is 2007 or 2008, it doesn't matter. That will be the sign of maturity with his secondary pitches that we have been looking for since his arrival.

traderumor
04-25-2006, 04:36 PM
Will Krivsky have the cajones to move him for a more sure bet with the legendary status he is reaching as a prospect? Regardless, keep hyping, Reds, get that value up. Then turn him over to be some other team's pipe dream.

Ravenlord
04-25-2006, 05:11 PM
Bailey will be called when his strikeouts increase and ERA drops. Simple as that. Whether it is 2007 or 2008, it doesn't matter. That will be the sign of maturity with his secondary pitches that we have been looking for since his arrival.
exactly right.

Superdude
04-25-2006, 06:12 PM
Bailey will be called when his strikeouts increase and ERA drops.

Didn't Bailey have a K/9 innings last year of like 11? I think it has more to do with when Bailey's walk totals drop.

Caveat Emperor
04-26-2006, 01:55 AM
Bailey will be called when his strikeouts increase and ERA drops. Simple as that. Whether it is 2007 or 2008, it doesn't matter. That will be the sign of maturity with his secondary pitches that we have been looking for since his arrival.

Agreed.

For me, the only thing numbers in low-A and high-A should be used for are "are you good enough to pitch in AA?" status. As of right now, Bailey hasn't done what he is supposed to be doing: dominating people who are of inferior talent level (compared to him).

When he drops his ERA and increases his K/9 and K/BB rates in Chattanooga, then you'll know it's time for Bailey to arrive.

wolfboy
04-26-2006, 05:29 PM
Agreed.

For me, the only thing numbers in low-A and high-A should be used for are "are you good enough to pitch in AA?" status. As of right now, Bailey hasn't done what he is supposed to be doing: dominating people who are of inferior talent level (compared to him).

When he drops his ERA and increases his K/9 and K/BB rates in Chattanooga, then you'll know it's time for Bailey to arrive.

I don't know how much more he could increase his K/9 over last year. 10.85/9. Kerry Wood averaged 11.09/9 in the minors. Roger Clemens 10.52/9. Randy Johnson 9.64/9. The only person that comes to mind drastically above Homer's ml k/9 for last year was Mark Prior. He had a ridiculous 14-15/9 number in the minors (in a very short ml stay).

I'll be the first to agree that Homer is several years off. I just don't understand how increasing his K/9 is an expectation. He hasn't put up a pedestrian rate so far.

Superdude
04-27-2006, 10:31 AM
I just don't understand how increasing his K/9 is an expectation. He hasn't put up a pedestrian rate so far.

I agree. Does he have to get 20K's a game before we call him up?! A K rate close to 11 is good enough for me.