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RedsManRick
04-26-2006, 04:05 PM
I'm not going to go out and claim he's a legit Ace or anything, but it's so nice to see another solid major league starter in this rotation. Right now, I feel like Harang and Arroyo give us a good chance to win every game they pitch. The concerns about his K/9 rate appear to addressed and this will be his 4th QS in 5 games. I love the over 4:1 K/BB ratio as well.

The only question in my mind is whether the K/9 decrease last year was a fatigue issue, minor injury, or simple random chance. His career Pre-Post AS break splits are virtually identicaly so I don't think it's a serious fatigue thing and think we have reason to believe he'll remain effective.

I suppose one could argue that given his repitoire he gets hit harder once guys are familiar with him. Does anybody have some numbers on how he's pitched against teams as he begins to see them multiple times? So far this year his best outing was the 2nd time faced the Cubs...

Unless Wily Mo really does end up going Sammy Sosa, I'm really liking the trade more and more...

Cyclone792
04-26-2006, 04:22 PM
Arroyo is giving us exactly what I wanted, and with a little bit of hit-luck sprinkled in he's really done a spectacular job overall. Here's some Arroyo stats through the 8th inning of today's game vs. Washington:

Actual ERA: 2.34
DIPS ERA: 3.97
HR/9: 1.30
K/9: 7.79
BB/9: 1.82
K/BB: 4.29
BABIP: .263*

* Does not include today's game, but through the 8th inning it has to be lower

Arroyo has been hit lucky so far this year, but heck, I won't complain at all. His DIPS figures are precisely where I hoped they'd be, though his HR/9 figure is slightly higher than his career mark, but as Rick noted his K/9 rate has rebounded.

Another big key is that Arroyo has dropped his BB/9 rate to 1.82 compared to his career mark of 2.86. In both 2004 and 2005 his BB/9 was 2.37 so the early drop this year in BB/9 has been a great surprise.

I do expect his BABIP to go up as I don't think he can hold it down near the .260 level all season. If Arroyo can lower his HR/9 while holding his K/9 and BB/9 levels steady, however, it should help balance out his BABIP regressing back to normal a bit.

EDIT: Adjusted stats through the 8th inning of today's work.

Cedric
04-26-2006, 04:23 PM
I'm worried about him relying on his curveball too much. He's throwing it in hitters counts and it's a weird style. I'm thinking the second time he faces teams will be key. I guess the Cubs game makes me feel better.

registerthis
04-26-2006, 05:12 PM
Arroyo is giving us exactly what I wanted, and with a little bit of hit-luck sprinkled in he's really done a spectacular job overall. Here's some Arroyo stats through the 8th inning of today's game vs. Washington:

Actual ERA: 2.34
DIPS ERA: 3.97
HR/9: 1.30
K/9: 7.79
BB/9: 1.82
K/BB: 4.29
BABIP: .263*

* Does not include today's game, but through the 8th inning it has to be lower

Arroyo has been hit lucky so far this year, but heck, I won't complain at all. His DIPS figures are precisely where I hoped they'd be, though his HR/9 figure is slightly higher than his career mark, but as Rick noted his K/9 rate has rebounded.

Another big key is that Arroyo has dropped his BB/9 rate to 1.82 compared to his career mark of 2.86. In both 2004 and 2005 his BB/9 was 2.37 so the early drop this year in BB/9 has been a great surprise.

I do expect his BABIP to go up as I don't think he can hold it down near the .260 level all season. If Arroyo can lower his HR/9 while holding his K/9 and BB/9 levels steady, however, it should help balance out his BABIP regressing back to normal a bit.

EDIT: Adjusted stats through the 8th inning of today's work.

Also, his K rate is up substantially from last year...he's on pace for around 170-180 for the year. If he's able to continue doing that, there's no question that he'll be successful.

Seriously, at this point in the season, how can this trade be graded anything other than an A+ for the Reds? Cincinnati hasn't had a starter this dependable since Pete Harnisch in the late 90s, and if Arroyo can maintain his current pace he'll be the Reds best starter since Pete Schourek in '95.

Chip R
04-26-2006, 05:13 PM
Whither the Wily Mo updates?

registerthis
04-26-2006, 05:15 PM
Whither the Wily Mo updates?

Well, he's barely playing, so there's not much to update. Only 1 AB since last Friday.

It's really unfortunate, he's going to waste away on the Boston bench.

WMR
04-26-2006, 05:16 PM
Whither the Wily Mo updates?

You've harped on the Wily Mo thing for a while now...

Keeping track of Wily Mo was never--in my eyes anyway--meant to denigrate Bronson's efforts as a Red.

Chip R
04-26-2006, 05:43 PM
You've harped on the Wily Mo thing for a while now...

Keeping track of Wily Mo was never--in my eyes anyway--meant to denigrate Bronson's efforts as a Red.

I haven't "harped" on it. I made one comment when the thread started and the one I just made. I don't see how that is harping about it. All I said was that we haven't seen any WMP updates lately which leads me to believe people believe we have gotten the better of that trade so far. Getting a little sensitive about it, aren't you?

MWM
04-26-2006, 05:47 PM
I"ve got to question the wisdom of the trade from Boston's standpoint if they didn't plan on letting him play almost everyday. Wily Mo has clearly shown in his career that he produces only when he's getting regular ABs. At the time of the trade I thought it was a good deal for Boston, but if this is how they planned on using him I'm not so sure it wouldn't have been better to keep Bronson around as insurance and as long relief.

Chip R
04-26-2006, 05:59 PM
I"ve got to question the wisdom of the trade from Boston's standpoint if they didn't plan on letting him play almost everyday. Wily Mo has clearly shown in his career that he produces only when he's getting regular ABs. At the time of the trade I thought it was a good deal for Boston, but if this is how they planned on using him I'm not so sure it wouldn't have been better to keep Bronson around as insurance and as long relief.

A team like BOS can afford - both financially and baseball wise - to have him on the roster in his role more than a team like the Reds can. He may win them as many games as he costs them. I've always looked at that deal from the BOS side as Manny insurance. He may play all the games and be as happy as a clam. Or he could pull a Ricky Williams and climb a mountaintop in Tibet. Or he could get hurt. If those things happen, they have Wily Mo to play in his stead. Their defense is about the same and although WMP doesn't hit for average like Manny does, he has more power and probably would hit 30 HRs by accident in Fenway. If he doesn' work out, they could always dump him on someone like Kansas City.

RedsManRick
04-26-2006, 06:04 PM
From a risk/reward or certainty standpoint, the trade still makes sense for the Reds Sox. The Sox simply weren't going to use him as a starter and the loss of Arroyo did/does nto drastically affect their chances to compete this year or in the future. His value to them was a middle reliever or swing starter. The potential gain from Wily Mo reaching his potential however is enormous. If he washes out, they're merely out a swing starter. A loss to be sure, but nothing they can't absorb.

However, by trading Arroyo they were able to capitalize on his value as a starter on other team's rosters. Still a smart trade by all parties invovled.

membengal
04-26-2006, 06:06 PM
Well...the Red Sox also left themselves short for that inevitable moment when Wells spit the bit this year (as he already has, with a DL stint underway). I think Boston may have undervalued him, by quite a lot...

KronoRed
04-26-2006, 06:22 PM
Maybe they planned and still plan to flip Wily for something else if he gets hot

He needs to play first though.

CTA513
04-26-2006, 06:30 PM
Maybe they planned and still plan to flip Wily for something else if he gets hot

He needs to play first though.

Maybe they plan on trading him for Dave Williams? :p:

KronoRed
04-26-2006, 06:33 PM
Do that deal now :D

Rojo
04-26-2006, 06:47 PM
As an interesting aside, perhaps only to myself, check out the second and third posts in this thread. A study in contrasts.

Chip R
04-26-2006, 06:49 PM
Well...the Red Sox also left themselves short for that inevitable moment when Wells spit the bit this year (as he already has, with a DL stint underway). I think Boston may have undervalued him, by quite a lot...

Sure, but it is like you said, it was probably inevitable that Wells would get hurt. If you and I could figure it out, you would think Theo did too. I don't think Theo started wailing about trading Bronson when Wells got hurt.

I'm not quite sure why Theo traded Bronson to us but I'm glad he did.

RedsManRick
04-26-2006, 07:00 PM
As an interesting aside, perhaps only to myself, check out the first two posts in this thread. A study in contrasts.

If you are referring to a possible scouting/stats comparison, you'll find I agree with cyclone somewhere in the neighborhood of 99.8% of the time, I just don't have the time that he does to dig up all the relevent numbers.

If you're referrined to Cyclone & Cedric.... well... yeah... :p:

Rojo
04-26-2006, 07:05 PM
My bad I meant between Cyclone and Cedric (posts #2 and #3 - since edited on my post). Not picking sides, its just about what makes it a great game.

wheels
04-26-2006, 07:44 PM
My bad I meant between Cyclone and Cedric (posts #2 and #3 - since edited on my post). Not picking sides, its just about what makes it a great game.

Absolutely.

I was thinking the same thing as I read them.

As far as Arroyo's concerned, I'm trying very hard to temper my enthusiasm.

It's still very early, but he's given them more than I expected. My thinking was that if he could give them 200 league average innings, I'd be feeling pretty good about the trade. Right now, he's on pace to do much more than that.

But doggone it......It's early, so I'll just take it all in stride.

When can I let myself feel good about Bronson?

Maybe the All Star break?

It's really, really early.

WMR
04-26-2006, 07:44 PM
I haven't "harped" on it. I made one comment when the thread started and the one I just made. I don't see how that is harping about it. All I said was that we haven't seen any WMP updates lately which leads me to believe people believe we have gotten the better of that trade so far. Getting a little sensitive about it, aren't you?

Me? Sensitive about WMP?? Of course (not)!

;) :laugh: :beerme:

Cedric
04-26-2006, 09:11 PM
Cyclone is awesome with the data. I haven't seen anything like it.

I just go from the gut :)

4256 Hits
04-26-2006, 10:03 PM
I"ve got to question the wisdom of the trade from Boston's standpoint if they didn't plan on letting him play almost everyday. Wily Mo has clearly shown in his career that he produces only when he's getting regular ABs. At the time of the trade I thought it was a good deal for Boston, but if this is how they planned on using him I'm not so sure it wouldn't have been better to keep Bronson around as insurance and as long relief.

Exactly, in this role the Red Sox would have been a better team signing someone like Quentin McCracken that has proven to perform well coming from the bench.

TeamBoone
04-26-2006, 10:52 PM
Wily Mo himself is the one that got the short end of the stick.

KronoRed
04-26-2006, 11:11 PM
Me? Sensitive about WMP?? Of course (not)!

;) :laugh: :beerme:
Want to change to Arroyo Rocks??

:D

WMR
04-26-2006, 11:17 PM
Want to change to Arroyo Rocks??

:D


Never!!!

cincinnati chili
04-26-2006, 11:32 PM
Wily Mo hit his second homer tonight. Josh Bard had another bout with Wakefield's knuckler and the Sox lost

marcshoe
04-26-2006, 11:51 PM
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v710/marcshoe/thencamebronsonarroyo.jpg

TeamBoone
04-27-2006, 12:15 AM
Tres cool, tixe!

M2
04-27-2006, 01:13 AM
I think we are seeing something that, for lack of a better term, I'll call the Arroyo effect.

Outside of Arroyo, the Reds have a 5.65 ERA. Without him, the starters have a 5.96 ERA. Imagine what his replacement would be doing if he weren't on the team? Take Arroyo away and the Reds, despite all the offense, are probably hovering around .500 instead of 14-7. It's amazing what kind of effect something that goes right can have on a team.

Now I happen to think Harang will be all right and that Arroyo will still be a reliable starter when he comes down to earth. If another starter can achieve solid mediocrity, the club might be able to hold some of its gains. That's really been the croaker in previous years. Even when things went right you knew that waves of bad would come crashing down soon enough.

Don't get me wrong, the Reds still have a pretty awful pitching staff and the bad parts are as bad as ever, but there's also a bulwark against that evil pitching tide for the first time in ages. I don't think it's enough to make the team a serious contender late into the season, but for the first time this century the club doesn't strike me as fate's plaything. For the first time in six seasons I'm thinking that it's possible the Reds might be better than I thought.

GullyFoyle
04-27-2006, 01:13 AM
I"ve got to question the wisdom of the trade from Boston's standpoint if they didn't plan on letting him play almost everyday. Wily Mo has clearly shown in his career that he produces only when he's getting regular ABs. At the time of the trade I thought it was a good deal for Boston, but if this is how they planned on using him I'm not so sure it wouldn't have been better to keep Bronson around as insurance and as long relief.

My understanding is that he was being groomed to possibly take Trots place next year or later and be insurance for Trot's stints on the DL. Tito said today (I'll see if I can find a link) that Wily Mo is going to play some center field this weekend in an effort to help the Sox offense (and get him more PAs).

GridironGrace
04-27-2006, 01:20 AM
Im gonna be very honest when it comes to Arroyo.

When this deal was made, i was SICK!!! I hated it. I understand the need for a good Pitcher but Arroyo,as far as i knew, was a streaky Pitcher. One day great, one day Bad etc.. whatever.

I REALLY REALLY liked Pena. Was one of my Favorites. And i only just got back into baseball last season after a long stint of "only following" now im a fan again and I really loved watching him.

Now.....5 starts into the season for Arroyo, and actually getting to watch some reds games on mlb.tv and on TV here in So. Ky. I've came to realize what a GREAT team we have here, and that only a few things are missing.

Arroyo, was one of the things missing, and i hope he finds a home here in Cincy, and doesnt run off as soon as he's able to get out. I feel he can help us for several years if things fall right.

4-0 Start. After last season It seemed it would be a LONG time before we seen that in Cincy.

I'll end with a GOOOO REDS!!! and a CANT WAIT TO SEE Arroyo VS Oswalt!!!!!!

RANDY IN INDY
04-27-2006, 10:35 AM
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v710/marcshoe/thencamebronsonarroyo.jpg

That definitely needs to be an avatar! Good work, tixie.

marcshoe
04-27-2006, 08:57 PM
I was trying for an avatar, but it turned out too small, and I was too tired to keep working on it. Maybe this weekend.