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View Full Version : The guy the Reds really should be looking to trade - Ken Griffey Jr.



M2
04-27-2006, 12:39 AM
One of the subplots to the early season so far has been who might Wayne Krivsky deal next. For obvious reasons, the catching position has garnered lots of attention. Austin Kearns, Ryan Freel, Rich Aurilia and pretty much anyone in the bullpen who'd fetch the right return have been mentioned as well. IMO the name that should be at the top of that list is Ken Griffey Jr.

Now I know Jr. has a no-trade clause which complicates matters, but the reality is that no one knows if he'd use it until push came to shove. I'm also aware that he costs a lot of money and that he's injury prone, making him a risky acquisition for another team. So what I'm proposing here isn't concerned with whether the Reds can trade Jr. Unless somebody's got access to the part of his brain that would make the call on this, that's pure speculation. What I'm saying is the Reds should trade Jr.

Why? Well, the team seems to score just fine without him, six runs a game since he got injured in fact. The defense also gets better when he's not around. That might not be the case if he were in an OF corner, but it doesn't seem particularly likely that he'll be in an OF corner for the Reds anytime soon.

I'm aware that he's still a dynamite hitter when he's in the lineup. That's why I think he has a market. There's a lot of lousy OFs out there. We know the White Sox had an interest in him last year and that team's need for an OF is even greater this season. The Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals have serious OF holes as well. Honestly, if you look around MLB the need for big bats in the OF has never been greater.

If Jr. can come back and show no ill effects from his mystery knee injury, somebody's going to want him. If the Reds can move that kind of risk, shed a big chunk of that contract and get intriguing talent in return, then I think the organization has to try.

To me it makes a lot more sense than baiting your hook with Kearns or Freel (both of whom I'm not opposed to trading). IMO, Jr.'s been in the wrong place too long and the team is showing that it can get by without him.

KronoRed
04-27-2006, 12:45 AM
Impossible to deal unless the Reds bite the bullet and pay about 80% of his contract.

Patrick Bateman
04-27-2006, 12:49 AM
Impossible to deal unless the Reds bite the bullet and pay about 80% of his contract.

I'm not so sure about that. Last year before his injury I think we had a deal on the table with the Sox that woudn't have been nearly that costly.

M2
04-27-2006, 12:55 AM
Impossible to deal unless the Reds bite the bullet and pay about 80% of his contract.

Maybe, maybe not. Seems to me that what a team is willing to pay has a lot to do with how big a need it has and what it's expectations for the season are. He is still Ken Griffey Jr., first ballot Hall-of-Famer. Teams have been known to pay a little bit for such things.

Plus, I've been told Adam Dunn couldn't be signed to a reasonable contract and that Wily Mo Pena would never fetch a decent starting pitcher only to see both those things happen. Can't do might have left on the back of Dan O'Brien.

IslandRed
04-27-2006, 12:56 AM
Castellini factor: I'm sure he's enjoying the fast start. I'm also sure he understands the pitching isn't likely to hold up. Nonetheless, unless the "intriguing talent" we received in return for Griffey goes straight into the rotation, it would be perceived by many as a white-flag deal, and it's too early for that. We can analyze it and understand that it doesn't necessarily make the 2006 product worse but the bulk of the ticket-buyers won't get it.

But if he's healthy in July and the Reds aren't making a serious run, I think most of us would expect a deal to get done this time.

M2
04-27-2006, 12:58 AM
Island Red, you're probably right about the optimal timing, but when Jr.'s legs are part of the equation I say the optimal timing is whenever you can get the deal you want.

WVPacman
04-27-2006, 01:06 AM
Great great great post M2, I've been saying this for a couple of years now. JR is still a good player but the truth is that he has stayed way to long here and he needs traded so he can RESTART his career.

Gainesville Red
04-27-2006, 01:07 AM
I like Jr. a lot. That being said, Freel's made some nice running catches over the last couple of days in a huge outfield.

I'd pull the trigger if the opportunity presented itself.

gonelong
04-27-2006, 01:16 AM
I think Jr would be very selective about where he accepted a trade, and he has earned that right.

Given the Reds fast start ... I don't see him accepting a trade unless he is pretty sure he would make the post-season with a realistic shot at making the World Series. Given his injury this season already I think it would be a tough sell at this point. If he comes back strong and the Reds falter then it becomes a bit more feasible.

<dream scenario>
Is there a better script for Jr than winning a World Series in Cincy? Is there a better scenario for MLB than the "natural" Jr leading overcoming adversity to win a ring in Cincy with the ongoing steriods debacle? Oh, how sweet that would be. Jr. "saving baseball" from the guys that "saved baseball". </dream scenario>

GL

WVPacman
04-27-2006, 01:21 AM
I like Jr. a lot. That being said, Freel's made some nice running catches over the last couple of days in a huge outfield.

I'd pull the trigger if the opportunity presented itself.


Freel has done that the last two seasons out there!!! A player like Freel needs to be out there everyday.

RedsManRick
04-27-2006, 01:46 AM
The Sox would still make an interesting trade partner. Brian Anderson isn't tearing the cover off the ball and there are rumors of Cintron getting some starts. The Sox have the talent to deal, the money to spend, and Griffey could very well accept a deal that puts him on a WS favorite that's not much further from home than Cincy.

I don't know enough about the Sox (despite living here) to know if they'd part with McCarthy, but he sure would look nice in Red. FWIW, Garcia, Buerhle, and Vazquez are signed through 2007 and Contreras and Garland through 2008. So it's not like there's going to be a spot for him soon.

Caveat Emperor
04-27-2006, 01:46 AM
I'm in agreement with you M2 to the extent that I feel that if Krivsky could replace 1 person on the team, it would be Ken Griffey Jr. His contract and defense make him a liability on the team.

I think if Griffey has any future on this team, it has to be in LF or at 1st base, and I'm almost positive that if Krivsky had been installed as GM earlier in the offseason, this would've been an issue that got brought up. In either of those positions (basically with either him or Dunn at 1st base and the other in LF), the lineup is naturally stronger and the defense is naturally better. If Griffey ends up not being traded, then that's a move that will be made. The future of the Reds, as I see it, is Chris Denorfia's strong defense in CF. Who flanks him next season is anyones guess, IMO.

As far as trading Griffey goes...I have to divorce my baseball sense from my sentimentality when dealing with this topic. I love Griffey as a player and I've been nothing but a huge fan since he's come to Cincinnati. I also dispise the notion that the team is "financially hamstrung" by his contract -- it's not like they're running up against the salary cap because they're paying him too much. However, I also recognize realities and know that the dollars being spent on Griffey can be spent much more effectively.

I think the bottom line with trading Griffey has to be reaching a deal that makes sense. At this point, with as much money of his contract as the Reds have paid, I'm opposed to them sending any significant dollars along with his contract -- if they're going to pay for him to play, I'd rather see him playing 1st base or LF for this team. Further, I'd like it not to turn into a straight salary dump -- I think there is still value to a Ken Griffey Jr, especially for an AL team, and that there should be comparable return value coming back to the Reds in any deal.

He's a phenomenol player -- I feel privileged as a Reds fan to have watched him play in my hometown. If I had my way, he'd lead the Reds to a World Series title. All things being equal, I'd want him to retire a Red. But, real world concerns dictate that his best place might be somewhere other than the Reds.

CTA513
04-27-2006, 01:49 AM
The Sox would still make an interesting trade partner. Brian Anderson isn't tearing the cover off the ball and there are rumors of Cintron getting some starts. The Sox have the talent to deal, the money to spend, and Griffey could very well accept a deal that puts him on a WS favorite that's not much further from home than Cincy.

I don't know enough about the Sox (despite living here) to know if they'd part with McCarthy, but he sure would look nice in Red. FWIW, Garcia, Buerhle, and Vazquez are signed through 2007 and Contreras and Garland through 2008. So it's not like there's going to be a spot for him soon.

I think they have McCarthy pitching out of the bullpen.

RedsManRick
04-27-2006, 01:52 AM
I think they have McCarthy pitching out of the bullpen.

They do, which is a waste of his talent. Like Arroyo, often that bullpen guy who you can't fit in your rotation is more valuable to your team by getting him in somebody else's rotation and filling a weakness elsewhere in return.

A non-closer bullpen arm for Ken Griffey Junior? You make it sound even better.

CTA513
04-27-2006, 02:12 AM
They do, which is a waste of his talent. Like Arroyo, often that bullpen guy who you can't fit in your rotation is more valuable to your team by getting him in somebody else's rotation and filling a weakness elsewhere in return.

A non-closer bullpen arm for Ken Griffey Junior? You make it sound even better.

The Twins have Francisco Liriano working out of the bullpen. I would be nice if the Reds could pull him away from the Twins, but they would probably want alot for him.

GridironGrace
04-27-2006, 02:21 AM
WE all know JR aint going anywhere.

ONLY POSSIBLE CHANCE at dealing him is if he HEATS up again and stays that way until RIGHT AT THE DEADLINE and is traded to the World Series Favorite.

He's at home here and doesnt have to accept a thing.......he came here to retire and more then likely he's gonna retire here.

redsrule2500
04-27-2006, 02:27 AM
I<dream scenario>
Is there a better script for Jr than winning a World Series in Cincy? Is there a better scenario for MLB than the "natural" Jr leading overcoming adversity to win a ring in Cincy with the ongoing steriods debacle? Oh, how sweet that would be. Jr. "saving baseball" from the guys that "saved baseball". </dream scenario>

GL

:beerme: Great Dream Scenario...

CTA513
04-27-2006, 02:27 AM
WE all know JR aint going anywhere.

ONLY POSSIBLE CHANCE at dealing him is if he HEATS up again and stays that way until RIGHT AT THE DEADLINE and is traded to the World Series Favorite.

He's at home here and doesnt have to accept a thing.......he came here to retire and more then likely he's gonna retire here.

Maybe hes going to announce his retirement on friday? :evil:

KronoRed
04-27-2006, 03:13 AM
Maybe, maybe not. Seems to me that what a team is willing to pay has a lot to do with how big a need it has and what it's expectations for the season are. He is still Ken Griffey Jr., first ballot Hall-of-Famer. Teams have been known to pay a little bit for such things.

Plus, I've been told Adam Dunn couldn't be signed to a reasonable contract and that Wily Mo Pena would never fetch a decent starting pitcher only to see both those things happen. Can't do might have left on the back of Dan O'Brien.
I dunno, JR keeps getting hurt, it's a fact of life it seems, I don't think he'll bring many more fans to the park for any team short of the D-rays and he won't approve a trade there.

That said, if the Reds can get a good return I would not be upset if the paid 80-90% of the contract, it's only 2.9 more years, a good return would make it easier to accept.

GAC
04-27-2006, 05:52 AM
So what I'm proposing here isn't concerned with whether the Reds can trade Jr. Unless somebody's got access to the part of his brain that would make the call on this, that's pure speculation. What I'm saying is the Reds should trade Jr.

I agree. The "should" part though is complicated by the items/stipulations you mentioned above though. Only a few teams can afford to take on that salary and endure his being out of the lineup due to injury. And I think Jr would veto those deals if they were to arise.

I think the only likely candidate that Jr would go for would be an Atlanta... and would they be even interested?

I think the only other way they could POSSIBLY trade Jr, and open up other options, is if the Reds pay part of his contract (which most are not hot on), and to a regionally situated team he would approve of.

Jr is in the driver's seat... and he knows it.

buckeyenut
04-27-2006, 06:06 AM
The thing about Jrs contract, it is not that painful any more. Less than 30M left on the deal I believe. Jr is worth that risk, for sure.

If he could get somewhere where he could DH a couple days a week to protect his legs a little more and maybe play LF, I think he could stay healthy and play out his contract and then some. I also believe that this knee injury, if it had been anyone else on the team, they are probably playing after two days. But they are so scared of him blowing something out really bad that they are being way too cautious.

I am sure there are teams that would love to bring in Jr. The key is, can you get what we need from them?

Cyclone792
04-27-2006, 07:26 AM
An interesting question that I don't know the answer to, but was wondering if anybody else does: If Griffey is traded before his current contract expires, who gets stuck with the deferred payments?

Does whichever team Griffey is on when the contract expires responsible for the entire payload of his deferred payments? Is it pro-rated so that if Griffey plays x amount of seasons in Cincy, the Reds pay a certain percentage of the deferred payments and whichever other teams he plays with pays another pro-rated percentage? Or is it an issue that the Reds would have to work out in the meat of the trade if they'd ever deal Griffey, such as sending an enormous amount of cash to whichever team they traded him to?

One thing that worried me way back in 2000 with the way Griffey's contract is structured is what the small print specifics were about it, specifically the deferred payments. I loved acquiring him, and I loved it that the took a hometown discount from what he could have gotten on the open market, but I was also a bit apprehensive about the risk and potential downfalls involving the deferred payments. I'm not sure if the deferred payments would play any role in the Reds ability to trade Griffey near the end of this contract. Not only that, I was also a bit wary of the possibility that the deferred payments would handicap the team in any way in say, 2015, even if it's a only small handicap.

These were concerns I had six years ago when we acquired Griffey, and I'm still not even sure if they're legitimate or nothing to be worried about.

That said, I do agree fully with M2 that if the Reds find a suitable partner and can trade Griffey, they need to do it immediately. If we can't move him to another team, then they need to at least get him out of center field and into either left field or installed at first base.

I just think of it like this: Ryan Freel made an incredible catch in deep center field yesterday. When I think about other players in the Reds organization that could have made that catch with the same pre-pitch positioning, the only other name that comes to mind is Denorfia. IMO, there's no way Griffey comes close to that ball, and it's easily extra bases if he's out there. Statistically the last few seasons he's been one of the worst defensive center fielders in the game, and balls like that are balls that good to great center fielders can reach while a guy like Griffey lets it fall in. They'll add up over the course of the season, and if he costs us 10-15 runs beyond what an average defensive center fielder can give us, well that's run value that can easily be fixed simply by getting him out of center field.

MWM
04-27-2006, 07:59 AM
Cyclone, the Reds have been paying into an annuity over the course of the contract that would make it equal to the present value of the future payments at the end of the contract. This means that at the end of Junior's contract, he's not costing the Reds anything anymore. So the concern of his contract hurting the Reds in 2015 doesn't exist. I'm sure if he were traded, whoever he was traded to would be transferred the current balance and would have to take over these annuity payments until the end of the contract and then actually make the payments. This is assuming the contract was an even swap between teams.

Cyclone792
04-27-2006, 08:12 AM
Thanks for the info, MWM, and that eliminates the concern I've had over Griffey's contract with the deferred payments. It basically sounds like a pro-rated percentage then, and with the contract being about 2/3 complete that overall it's not as big of an issue as it once was two or three years ago.

Now to just get Griffey out of center field ...

flyer85
04-27-2006, 08:16 AM
I have a hard time with the concept there would be a market for Jr and his services because of the injuries, the risk would be extremely high. Also from a political standpoint I don't think the option becomes viable until the Reds are out of the race.

15fan
04-27-2006, 08:32 AM
Don't have the time to post a long counter-argument, but I'm still in the "Junior's a keeper unless it's a screamer of a deal" camp.

Sure, the offense has been clicking just fine.

But I don't expect Brandon Phillips to keep driving in 18 runs / week.

And at some point, Ed E is going to cool off. Right now, he's tied for 3rd in the NL in RBI with Andruw Jones (23). Pujols (29) and Berkman (24) are the only NL guys with more. I think EE is going to have a fine career, but I think it's folly to assume that he's going to keep up his pace with arguably the top 3 MVP candidates the league has to offer year-in & year-out.

When, not if, those two guys cool off, it'll be nice to have Junior's bat in the lineup to keep the offense humming.

flyer85
04-27-2006, 08:34 AM
And at some point, Ed E is going to cool off. he's got the RBIs simply because he is coming up with runners a lot of the time. His OBP or SLG% is not out of line with expectations. His RBI rate is likely to slow down but only because he'll get less opportunities.

Heath
04-27-2006, 08:37 AM
When, not if, those two guys cool off, it'll be nice to have Junior's bat in the lineup to keep the offense humming.

I'd agree to that above to point - but if Griffey's starting slow with everyone else slumping, well, good bye.

If Griffey plays well through May and into June - and a stretch run team like the White Sox needs him, well, why not?

I wish he'd move to a corner outfield spot. But this is starting to look eerily familar when Johnny Bench wanted to catch 2-3 days a week and play 3rd or 1st. It wasn't a team thing - it was a 'me' thing.

wheels
04-27-2006, 09:07 AM
he's got the RBIs simply because he is coming up with runners a lot of the time. His OBP or SLG% is not out of line with expectations. His RBI rate is likely to slow down but only because he'll get less opportunities.

You expected a .400 OBP?

Maybe a couple of years down the line, but right now it's a complete surprise to me.

I think EE is ripe for a bit of a cool down, and Junior's bat will be a welcome addition.

I'd still welcome a trade because of the whole defense/injury thing, but to expect Encarnacion to continue his torrid pace in his first full season, shouldering Junior's offensive load is a bit unrealistic.

Not having Junior in the lineup will eventually catch up to them, but if the right deal comes along the Reds have to jump on it.

Krusty
04-27-2006, 10:18 AM
The Sox would still make an interesting trade partner. Brian Anderson isn't tearing the cover off the ball and there are rumors of Cintron getting some starts. The Sox have the talent to deal, the money to spend, and Griffey could very well accept a deal that puts him on a WS favorite that's not much further from home than Cincy.

I don't know enough about the Sox (despite living here) to know if they'd part with McCarthy, but he sure would look nice in Red. FWIW, Garcia, Buerhle, and Vazquez are signed through 2007 and Contreras and Garland through 2008. So it's not like there's going to be a spot for him soon.

Griffey for RHP Freddie Garcia works out for both sides.

macro
04-27-2006, 10:23 AM
I'm still trying to figure out how it wasn't Krusty that started this thread! :evil:

Krusty
04-27-2006, 10:25 AM
I'm still trying to figure out how it wasn't Krusty that started this thread! :evil:

Some people are starting to see the light.

Johnny Footstool
04-27-2006, 10:27 AM
Dunn to 1B,
Griffey to LF,
Freel in CF.

Let that scenario play out for a couple of months, then start talking about trades.

Marc D
04-27-2006, 10:49 AM
Don't know what they have to give in return but JR sure would be a good fit for the Yankees imo.

He's got a whole lot more left in the tank than Bernie, JR's the type of big name that would feed the Boss's ego, the money wouldn't matter and it would give him a legit chance to win a ring.

That lineup is scary enough, adding JR to it would be sick.

pedro
04-27-2006, 10:54 AM
The Yankees need a DH. Although I'm not sure what they can offer besides payflex.

OnBaseMachine
04-27-2006, 11:02 AM
The Yankees need a DH. Although I'm not sure what they can offer besides payflex.

Philip Hughes, please. :D

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/philip-hughes.shtml

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Philip%20Hughes&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=461833

registerthis
04-27-2006, 11:06 AM
Dunn to 1B,
Griffey to LF,
Freel in CF.

Let that scenario play out for a couple of months, then start talking about trades.

It just makes too much sense, doesn't it?

GAC
04-27-2006, 11:19 AM
It just makes too much sense, doesn't it?

It makes sense... but convince two of the three players mentioned.

I've heard some say "You just take the bull by the horns and do it."

It sounds nice, but it just isn't that easy of a thing to do when it involves two of your star players.

And I bet that if any of the fans on here screaming for it were in management/coache's shoes, they wouldn't able to get it done either. ;)

Johnny Footstool
04-27-2006, 11:26 AM
It just makes too much sense, doesn't it?

That's how I set up my MLB2k6 team.

Of course, those electronic players don't have egos to bruise...

registerthis
04-27-2006, 11:28 AM
It makes sense... but convince two of the three players mentioned.

I've heard some say "You just take the bull by the horns and do it."

It sounds nice, but it just isn't that easy of a thing to do when it involves two of your star players.

And I bet that if any of the fans on here screaming for it were in management/coache's shoes, they wouldn't able to get it done either. ;)

Oh, I know GAC. Politics, egos, etc. I'm saying from a pure fantasy perspective, it makes perfect sense. That certainly doesn't mean it will happen. In fact, it likely won't.

registerthis
04-27-2006, 11:29 AM
That's how I set up my MLB2k6 team.

Of course, those electronic players don't have egos to bruise...

That feature is coming in the 2007 edition. If you have, say, a player who refers to himself in the third person (a la Tony Womack0 and you don't give him a lot of playign time, he gets fidgety and brings the morale of the team down. He then becomes poisonous and difficult to trade.

pedro
04-27-2006, 11:31 AM
It makes sense... but convince two of the three players mentioned.

I've heard some say "You just take the bull by the horns and do it."

It sounds nice, but it just isn't that easy of a thing to do when it involves two of your star players.

And I bet that if any of the fans on here screaming for it were in management/coache's shoes, they wouldn't able to get it done either. ;)

It's never going to be easier than it is right now. Freel is playing well in CF, Phillips is playing well at 2B, Griffey is coming off an injury, and the team is on a roll. They just need to play the "you want to win don't you?" card.

BRM
04-27-2006, 12:12 PM
It's never going to be easier than it is right now. Freel is playing well in CF, Phillips is playing well at 2B, Griffey is coming off an injury, and the team is on a roll. They just need to play the "you want to win don't you?" card.

That's my thinking. At least try to convince them that it's best for the team and it's the only way to keep the best lineup on the field. I think Dunn would be willing to give it a go. Junior would be the sticking point.

Johnny Footstool
04-27-2006, 12:41 PM
They could always use the "we've got to save Junior's creaky knees" argument. I'm sure Dunn would be willing to move to 1B if someone put it to him like that.

princeton
04-27-2006, 01:40 PM
Krivsky's a contracts guy, and his only big deal was to acquire a good contract.

so I figure that anyone with an overbearing contract is the guy that Krivsky is really looking to trade.

Milton and Wilson are first in line. Jr.'s next, though he might be viewed as a guy that draws corporate interest. But Dunn makes an argument that Jr's not necessary for that anymore.

the fourth guy on Mount Overpaid was Casey, but he's already gone. Larue is trying to make his case.

flyer85
04-27-2006, 01:46 PM
You expected a .400 OBP?
not necessarily but the fact that it is not batting average driven means there is a real possibility that he can stay up in that range.

Guacarock
04-27-2006, 01:55 PM
I'd look to trade Junior to the White Sox. They wouldn't give us McCarthy without expecting us to eat a lot of Griffey's contract. Probably the cleaner swap would involve Garcia -- as Krusty is proposing. Or maybe we could take Garland, who has looked pretty good his last two outings after getting off to a shaky start this season. Either way, the Sox need to jettison Garland or Garcia to clear a rotation spot for McCarthy.

Would Griffey accept a trade to Chicago? They are World Series champs, and they have most of the pieces in place to repeat, but could use a lefty slugger of Junior's caliber to ride shotgun alongside Konerko and Thome. Also, Chicago isn't that much farther than Cincy from Griffey's Florida home.

Where would that leave us? With Freel in CF, Dunn in LF. If we wanted to squeeze Denorfia into the outfield, perhaps Dunn could move over to 1B or Kearns could be dealt. Works for me.

flyer85
04-27-2006, 02:13 PM
I'd look to trade Junior to the White Sox. that ship sailed last year. Can't believe our FO/Owner passed on the chance get Young(actually I can).

Guacarock
04-27-2006, 02:41 PM
that ship sailed last year. Can't believe our FO/Owner passed on the chance get Young(actually I can).

Aw, but one wonders if White Sox GM Ken Williams is anything at all like Bowden -- pursuing players he covets for years at a stretch, until eventually getting his man.

If so, Griffey could return on the White Sox radar screen come June or July, if they are hoping to solidify another run at the pennant.

Young, by the way, spent most of this spring on the DL following wrist surgery. He's now in the Arizona Diamondbacks' organization, playing at Tucson. We'll see how he pans out.

flyer85
04-27-2006, 02:46 PM
Aw, but one wonders if White Sox GM Ken Williams is anything at all like Bowden -- pursuing players he covets for years at a stretch, until eventually getting his man.He may be but he was willing to trade Young because he saw him as expendable. I'm not sure he has the extra pieces at the moment.

As far as Young panning out, we will see, but he has an upside that is extremely high and what he did at age 21 in AA playing half his games in an extreme pitchers park was impressive to say the least.

pedro
04-27-2006, 02:50 PM
The White Sox have Thome at DH now, I can't see them wanting Griffey.

KronoRed
04-27-2006, 04:19 PM
Some people are starting to see the light.
You have minions to rival Raisor:evil:

cincinnati chili
04-27-2006, 09:28 PM
I'll play along with M2's rules for this thread.

If the Reds CAN trade Jr., I agree that they should if they can acquire a decent #3 or 4 starter. I'm skeptical of Freel being able to play CF everyday though. Perhaps his instincts are better than I've observed, but I've seen some crazy routes to balls. I'd do the deal to improve pitching. But ideally, I'd like Griffey's CF successor to be a plus defender.

wheels
04-27-2006, 09:56 PM
not necessarily but the fact that it is batting average driven means there is a real possibility that he can stay up in that range.

Good point.

WebScorpion
04-28-2006, 09:31 AM
The casual fan (that's none of us) comes to the game to see Ken Griffey, Jr. In fact, they still come in pretty large numbers. As his lifetime stats progress this will become even more pronounced. Ken is just too profitable to trade away. It's the same reason Barry Bonds is still limping around the bases in San Francisco...star power. No other player on the Reds puts asses in the seats by himself. Ken will not be traded. :cool:

BRM
04-28-2006, 09:40 AM
You have minions to rival Raisor:evil:

No one has minions equal to Raisor's!! ;)

princeton
04-28-2006, 10:21 AM
No other player on the Reds puts asses in the seats by himself. Ken will not be traded. :cool:

you might be right, but I'd have my polling team running the Dunn alone numbers, as well as the numbers for a team with last place pitching for the next few years.

Falls City Beer
04-28-2006, 10:24 AM
Aw, but one wonders if White Sox GM Ken Williams is anything at all like Bowden -- pursuing players he covets for years at a stretch, until eventually getting his man.

If so, Griffey could return on the White Sox radar screen come June or July, if they are hoping to solidify another run at the pennant.

Young, by the way, spent most of this spring on the DL following wrist surgery. He's now in the Arizona Diamondbacks' organization, playing at Tucson. We'll see how he pans out.

Why is that brain menacing that cute puppy dog?

Caveat Emperor
04-28-2006, 11:04 AM
No other player on the Reds puts asses in the seats by himself. Ken will not be traded. :cool:

Ken Griffey Jr. draws you 20,000 fans on a night where you otherwise might only have done 18,000.

Winning baseball draws you 40,000 for every home date in July-September.

I know which one I'd rather have.

Guacarock
04-28-2006, 11:37 AM
Why is that brain menacing that cute puppy dog?

FCB -- That was just a test avatar I uploaded from the John Agar sci-fi classic BRAIN FROM THE PLANET AROUS. Actually, that was the good brain, Vol, getting ready to occupy the dog's body to track down the evil, nuclear-meancing brain Gor.

Seeing Wheel's Angry Samoan avatar made me do it. I had lunch the other day with Angry Samoans' frontman, Gregg Turner. Believe it or not, he's now a math professor. He mentioned BRAIN FROM THE PLANET AROUS as being one of his favorite movies.

At any rate, in the cold light of day, the avatar did look too menacing. So I replaced it with a Red Army insignia -- an avatar not so menacing these days.

M2
04-28-2006, 11:57 AM
I had lunch the other day with Angry Samoans' frontman, Gregg Turner.

Did he use a steak knife?

Deepred05
04-28-2006, 11:59 AM
Why does the ghost of Frank Robinson still haunt me? I want Griffey to end his career in Cincinnati. Just a feeling I have.

Guacarock
04-28-2006, 01:47 PM
Did he use a steak knife?

But, of course. A knife he wielded with a devilish glint in his eyes. All the while describing his latest band, the Blood Drained Cows.

WebScorpion
04-28-2006, 02:43 PM
Ken Griffey Jr. draws you 20,000 fans on a night where you otherwise might only have done 18,000.

Winning baseball draws you 40,000 for every home date in July-September.

I know which one I'd rather have.

Personally, I'd rather have both.

Assuming you are correct, (although I'm sure the numbers are off, my guess is that a winning team without KGJ will draw more than KGJ on a losing team,) how do you guarantee a winning team? The KGJ draw is a sure thing ... even when he sucks people come to see the 'legend'. I think they'll hedge their bet and try to build a winning team WITH Ken Griffey Jr. Just my opinion. :D

westofyou
04-28-2006, 02:53 PM
The KGJ draw is a sure thing ... 2 years of declining attendance, Cincinnati feeds winners steaks, tosses stars biscuits.

KronoRed
04-28-2006, 03:19 PM
They said the same thing about Casey and attendance, fans come out anyway.

IslandRed
04-28-2006, 03:28 PM
Simply looking at the Reds attendance figures, other than the 2000 bump (coming off a good season and adding Griffey) and the 2003 bump (GABP opening), they've been sitting somewhere around 2 million, around 12th or 13th in the NL. That rank is no real accomplishment in a league with the perennially attendance-challenged Marlins, the equally small-market Pirates and Brewers, and until last year the truly forgettable Expos.

This is Griffey's seventh season in Cincinnati. The new has worn off. He's very popular among Reds fans, but I just don't see any evidence that having him, today, is a huge draw. I could be wrong. Someone would have to do a detailed analysis comparing healthy-Griffey and injured-Griffey periods during the last few years, factoring in quality of opponent, day of the week, whether we're plausibly in contention or not, etc. It's more work than I care to put in, obviously. :laugh: But I bet someone in the Cincinnati front office has. Or will.

Cooper
04-28-2006, 05:07 PM
Could there be more than say 10 fans who go to see Jr. regardless of how the team is functioning? Rarely do fans go to see a player alone unless they are nearing a record. There have been countless studies on this topic. A hobbled up ballplayer who has been here 7 years does not a make a huge dent in attendance....i wish that wasn't the case, but such is life.

Frank Robinson was 30 (or is that an "old 30"). KGJ is much older. There really isn't a comparision. At 36 Frank was in his a different team a different year phase. Still productive, but not nearly the player he was i.e. Griffey.

wheels
04-29-2006, 10:53 PM
But, of course. A knife he wielded with a devilish glint in his eyes. All the while describing his latest band, the Blood Drained Cows.

Bwahhh!!!

You must explain how the whole lunch with Greg thing came about.

I know a chick that dated Metal Mike, and if you use the degrees of seperation......Well, you get it.

pedro
05-01-2006, 02:00 PM
from BP today (Wll Carroll)

The hot streak the Reds had in Ken Griffey Jr.’s absence was coincidence, right? Griffey improves the team, right? As the team finds its identity under Wayne Krivsky and new ownership, Griffey is starting to get the sidelong glances that the symbol of an old regime gets. There are whispers that the team would be willing to let Griffey move on, eating more of his contract than Carl Lindner ever imagined. It’s not a giveaway deal and not something that the Reds feel they need to do. It’s just one of many options. Griffey should get back on the field this week, which will help determine his role and value. Thinking of Griffey as day-to-day each and every day is the best way to manage him.

vaticanplum
05-01-2006, 02:13 PM
from BP today (Wll Carroll)

The hot streak the Reds had in Ken Griffey Jr.ís absence was coincidence, right? Griffey improves the team, right? As the team finds its identity under Wayne Krivsky and new ownership, Griffey is starting to get the sidelong glances that the symbol of an old regime gets. There are whispers that the team would be willing to let Griffey move on, eating more of his contract than Carl Lindner ever imagined. Itís not a giveaway deal and not something that the Reds feel they need to do. Itís just one of many options. Griffey should get back on the field this week, which will help determine his role and value. Thinking of Griffey as day-to-day each and every day is the best way to manage him.

That pretty much sums it up in my opinion. Logic through and through.

KronoRed
05-01-2006, 03:00 PM
What happens if the Reds make him a part time player? not that I ever expect it to happen, but it's something to consider.

Cyclone792
05-01-2006, 03:44 PM
On April 19th, the Reds team defensive efficiency ratio was .682 - good for 27th in the majors - and I know this because that was the date I posted a rant about the team's pitching and defensive woes.

As of today, the Reds team defensive efficiency ratio is now .706 on the season, which now ranks 17th in the majors. What this means is defensively the Reds have been turning many more balls in play into outs in the last 10+ games than they were prior to April 19th.

What's happened defensively since April 19th?

1) Griffey out of center field (and off the field entirely), which essentially causes factors 2 and 3 below.
2) Freel in center field every day.
3) Phillips at second base every day.

All the above comes with the appropriate small sample size warnings, but feel free to draw your own conclusions.

M2
05-01-2006, 03:50 PM
On April 19th, the Reds team defensive efficiency ratio was .682 - good for 27th in the majors - and I know this because that was the date I posted a rant about the team's pitching and defensive woes.

As of today, the Reds team defensive efficiency ratio is now .706 on the season, which now ranks 17th in the majors. What this means is defensively the Reds have been turning many more balls in play into outs in the last 10+ games than they were prior to April 19th.

What's happened defensively since April 19th?

1) Griffey out of center field (and off the field entirely), which essentially causes factors 2 and 3 below.
2) Freel in center field every day.
3) Phillips at second base every day.

All the above comes with the appropriate small sample size warnings, but feel free to draw your own conclusions.

Amazing what can happen when you eliminate glaring problems from the mix.

westofyou
05-01-2006, 03:52 PM
Amazing what can happen when you eliminate glaring problems from the mix.
It's like taking all the celery out of a chicken salad, it really doesn't hurt it that much and it's still edible.

BRM
05-01-2006, 04:11 PM
Amazing what can happen when you eliminate glaring problems from the mix.

That's why Junior will be right back in CF upon his return.

M2
05-01-2006, 05:15 PM
That's why Junior will be right back in CF upon his return.

???

BRM
05-01-2006, 05:19 PM
???

Not saying I agree with him being in CF. Just saying the Reds will put him there even though it's painfully obvious that the defense improves when he's not manning CF. In other words, I was sort of being sarcastic.

M2
05-01-2006, 05:44 PM
Not saying I agree with him being in CF. Just saying the Reds will put him there even though it's painfully obvious that the defense improves when he's not manning CF. In other words, I was sort of being sarcastic.

That is frustrating, isn't it? My apologies for being a bit dense on that one.

BRM
05-01-2006, 05:46 PM
That is frustrating, isn't it? My apologies for being a bit dense on that one.

It's Monday. ;)

Yes, it's very frustrating. There is a pretty simple solution to improving the defense. I just wish the Reds would take the action.

Nugget
05-01-2006, 10:20 PM
I'd say we have the official Trade Ken Griffey Junior thread for the year.

Guacarock
05-04-2006, 03:14 AM
Bwahhh!!!

You must explain how the whole lunch with Greg thing came about.

I know a chick that dated Metal Mike, and if you use the degrees of seperation......Well, you get it.

Gregg lives here in Santa Fe part-time and teaches math part-time, up north. Santa Fe's a small town -- less than 75,000 residents. So we all see a lot of each other, doesn't matter if you're a punk-rocker math whiz like Gregg or just a psychopathic Reds fan like yours truly.

If you're interested in contacting Gregg, drop me a line at Guacarock@yahoo.com and I'll pass it along to him. Can't promise he'll reply, but knowing him, it wouldn't surprise me if he did.

gm
05-04-2006, 04:13 PM
I read this thread pretty quickly, but I missed any mention of the White Sox spring training location in Arizona. Now, I know Junior went west this March to play in the WBC, but that was a one-time event. He's said he'd rather train near home in Orlando...plus the Reds are finally starting to play well, making it less likely that he'll accept any trade proposal.

Krusty
05-05-2006, 09:44 AM
Griffey to the White Sox for RHP Freddie Garcia. It is begging to happen. White Sox Brian Anderson is struggling with the bat while playing center. Reds could use another veteran starter and allow Chris Denorfia to assume the role as centerfielder for the Reds.

Johnny Footstool
05-05-2006, 10:20 AM
If Denorfia's in center, where does Freel play?

traderumor
05-05-2006, 10:24 AM
If Denorfia's in center, where does Freel play?
Left, and Dunn to first, whether he likes it or not.

WebScorpion
05-05-2006, 11:02 AM
If Denorfia's in center, where does Freel play?
Everywhere. He's the supersub: Rotate him from 3rd (EE sits), to 2nd (BP sits), to 2nd (BP to SS, FeLo sits), to LF (Dunn sits), to RF (Kearns sits), to CF (Deno sits). That should give him plenty of playing time and he needs to sit every once in a while too. :beerme:

registerthis
05-05-2006, 11:09 AM
Left, and Dunn to first, whether he likes it or not.

<ding>

We have a winner.

traderumor
05-05-2006, 01:33 PM
<ding>

We have a winner.

The more I think about it, it is as plain as the nose on my face that Griffey just cannot be put in center anymore. Watching Freel and Denorfia get to balls that Jr. just cannot get to anymore makes me hope against hope that Narron makes another ballsy move because its the right move. Even though I do not know how those two compare on range to other CFers, for what we have on the roster, they are the best bets to go get 'em. How many catches has Freel made that were because of his speed? From Marty's calls during the Houston series, he made 3 or 4 important catches in that series alone that we all know Jr. just cannot get to anymore.

So, just as I think the leadership of Narron and Krivsky should care less how Dunn "feels" about playing first, they need to take the same attitude to Jr. and inform him that they need him in LF. All reports I hear is that Jr. would be much more concerned about winning than getting his toes stepped on. Of course, be careful stepping on his toes or he'll end up on the DL with a broken one. ;)

KronoRed
05-05-2006, 02:30 PM
Left, and Dunn to first, whether he likes it or not.
So easy it can't possibly be done ;)

Guacarock
05-05-2006, 02:37 PM
So far, in 2006, Griffey is logging 1 putout or assist every 3.14 innings played. Freel is logging 1 putout or assist every 2.88 innings played. It might not seem like a big differential, but stretch that out over a season and you'll find: If Freel played CF every game, every inning, he would snag 42 more balls than Griffey. That's an enormous defensive upgrade.

And the stats for 2006 aren't aberrations. The 2005 figures: 1 putout or assist every 3.15 IP for Griffey, 1 every 2.41 IP for Freel.

So, while our offense gets a lift with Griffey in the lineup, our defense suffers when he's roaming out in CF. Time he cedes that territory to Freel, Denorfia or another younger, more mobile fielder. Time to bite the bullet and move Junior to LF or 1B, whichever is the most do-able option.

traderumor
05-05-2006, 02:50 PM
So easy it can't possibly be done ;)Really, it isn't like a Foster/Rose move. But what do we know?

pedro
05-05-2006, 03:01 PM
Krusty, I have serious doubts the White Sox would be willing to suffer through Griffey's defense in CF, although I do agree that the Sox have a situation in CF that should probably be addressed. I think the WS are going to rue the day they traded Chris Young to Arizona.

KronoRed
05-05-2006, 03:05 PM
White Sox also have no need for a DH now, so I think they are out.

Cyclone792
05-05-2006, 03:05 PM
So far, in 2006, Griffey is logging 1 putout or assist every 3.14 innings played. Freel is logging 1 putout or assist every 2.88 innings played. It might not seem like a big differential, but stretch that out over a season and you'll find: If Freel played CF every game, every inning, he would snag 42 more balls than Griffey. That's an enormous defensive upgrade.

And the stats for 2006 aren't aberrations. The 2005 figures: 1 putout or assist every 3.15 IP for Griffey, 1 every 2.41 IP for Freel.

So, while our offense gets a lift with Griffey in the lineup, our defense suffers when he's roaming out in CF. Time he cedes that territory to Freel, Denorfia or another younger, more mobile fielder. Time to bite the bullet and move Junior to LF or 1B, whichever is the most do-able option.

I'm tracking a bunch of pitching and defensive stats, including splits with and without Griffey in another thread.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=966770&postcount=24 ... this is up-to-date as of last night's game.

And yes, IMO, it's time for Griffey to move to left field or first base. I don't care which one, but anything that gets him out of center field improves the team defense considerably.