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SanDiegoRed
04-28-2006, 04:40 AM
Would you give up Ed and Homer? Ken Rosenthal mentions the possible trade scenario on the Fox MLB website.
Here is the link. Count me as a yes...
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb

jmcclain19
04-28-2006, 04:54 AM
Here is the story

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5549214


Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria keeps denying that the team might trade left-hander Dontrelle Willis, growing increasingly outraged by each new round of speculation.

What Loria can't deny is the sheer logic of moving Willis at the July 31 non-waiver deadline if the rebuilding Marlins get the right offer.

Willis, 24, will appeal not just to the losers of the Roger Clemens sweepstakes, but also to any surprise team that wants to maintain its early momentum with a midseason blockbuster.

For example, what if the Reds offered a package including third baseman Edwin Encarnacion and top pitching prospect Homer Bailey?The notion isn't as far-fetched as it might appear.

The Reds' new owners want to win. And while Encarnacion and Bailey would be a high price, the Reds would get Willis for the rest of this season and all of 2007 and '08 before he becomes a free agent.

Yes, Willis' salaries in arbitration likely will exceed $7 million '07 and $10 million in '08. But his arrival would change the entire dynamic of the franchise. Willis is one of the few players in the majors who is an actual draw. If he stayed healthy — a big "if" with any pitcher — he would pay for himself.

And, as the Marlins' Loria surely recognizes, other clubs might want Willis for the same reasons as the Reds, creating the possibility of a frenzied auction before the July 31 non-waiver deadline.

Say the Brewers, like the Reds, hang around in the National League Central. Perhaps they would want to pair Willis with right-hander Ben Sheets at the top of their rotation. Perhaps they would offer a package starting with second baseman Rickie Weeks.

The Diamondbacks could be in a similar position in the NL West, seeking to put together a 1-2 combination of Willis and right-hander Brandon Webb. Outfielder Carlos Quentin and shortstop Stephen Drew are among the many Arizona prospects who could spur the Marlins' interest.

Then there are the more obvious potential suitors.

The Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels and Cubs all boast strong farm systems. Imagine the Mets adding Willis to their impressive young core. Imagine the Braves getting Willis to go with Tim Hudson and John Smoltz.

Still with us, Mr. Loria?

See you July 31 — if not before.

KronoRed
04-28-2006, 04:59 AM
Wouldn't come close to getting him.

Jpup
04-28-2006, 06:15 AM
Wouldn't come close to getting him.

Homer, EdE, and Kearns would get him. I don't want to trade those guys, but I would do it in a second to get Dontrelle. There is only one problem, Encarnacion wouldn't have a place to play with Cabrera at 3rd.

I think that BoB and Krivsky want to win, this year, we'll see how far they are willing to go. For the Reds to even be mentioned in the same sentence as Dontrelle Willis is a step in the right direction.

OnBaseMachine
04-28-2006, 07:50 AM
You guys are going to think I'm crazy...

I like Dontrelle but I would not deal Edwin Encarnacion and Homer Bailey for him. Austin Kearns and Bailey? Yes. EE? No. Dontrelle's declining K rate worries me enough that I would not include Edwin in the deal. EE is going to be a superstar in this game and he is a guy I want to see the Reds hang on to for a long time.

TC81190
04-28-2006, 09:19 AM
Yeah, EE is close to untouchable. Kearns and Bailey for Willis? Yeah. I'd give em BJ too. But not EE.

Nugget
04-28-2006, 09:33 AM
I'm not sure that DW is the kind of the pitcher should be going after. He's coming into big money, will cost a lot to get and is has more hype than success at the moment.

Arroyo is a move that I agree with in that you don't have to give up too much, won't break the bank and is less about hype and more about results.

In Australia there is a saying that you shouldn't have to mortgage the farm to get what you want and that's exactly what Willis would be.

Highlifeman21
04-28-2006, 09:33 AM
Homer, EdE, and Kearns would get him. I don't want to trade those guys, but I would do it in a second to get Dontrelle. There is only one problem, Encarnacion wouldn't have a place to play with Cabrera at 3rd.

I think that BoB and Krivsky want to win, this year, we'll see how far they are willing to go. For the Reds to even be mentioned in the same sentence as Dontrelle Willis is a step in the right direction.


Cabrera's played some OF in his time, so he could easily go back there if they felt that EE was better defensively @ 3B. The problem is that Cabrera is better than EE defensively, so now Florida would have to put EE at a new position, maybe SS, maybe 2B.

I'm amused by all these "who would you trade for Willis" threads. Honestly, is it gonna happen? No. Even if we got Dontrelle, does that instantly make us the favorite in the NL Central? Hard to say. This team has too many bullpen woes to be magically addressed by 1 starting pitcher.

wheels
04-28-2006, 09:36 AM
I'd give em BJ too. But not EE.

:laugh:

TC81190
04-28-2006, 09:39 AM
:laugh:

I was tempted to put 'a' in there. :evil:

edabbs44
04-28-2006, 09:41 AM
I wouldn't deal EE or Kearns in that deal. What happens to the offense? Willis then goes from a team with no offense to a team that is one Jr. hammy tear away from having no O. BJ, Bailey, Wood, etc are all free game if I am concerned (but not all of them). And only if we sign him to a 5 year deal after the trade.

RedLegSuperStar
04-28-2006, 09:43 AM
Remember getting D-Train is like getting another bat off the bench!

Might not be a bad deal.. but i'd hate to lose EE and Bailey even to get a #1 ace.

steig
04-28-2006, 09:51 AM
If it is true that the Marlins offered Willis to the Mets straight up for Wright then I think offering EdE and Bailey is to much. EdE might be close the the level of Wright in a year. I would start by offering any minor league package of players that doesn't involve Bailey. Give them Wood, Bruce, etc. If we are trying to get Willis to win now then we can't give up a lot of talent on the 25 man roster. And trading Bailey is taking a chance that he isn't as good as Willis. Bailey would be under the teams control for 6 years compared to 3 for Willis, but Willis is proven and a lefty.

CaiGuy
04-28-2006, 09:53 AM
EE is going to be a superstar in this game.
Thats exactly right, and that is what it would take to get willis. It would take EE PLUS some other legit player/prospect. Thats why Willis isn't going to be a red.

MattyHo4Life
04-28-2006, 10:04 AM
It might take more than Homer and EE to get Willis, but that would be a great start if it wasn't. I think that is a deal the Reds need to make. It would make the Reds a much better team. Imagine having Harang and Arroyo as your 2nd and 3rd best pitchers. Willis isn't cheap, but teams don't trade cheap established pitchers. That's why the Brewers have held onto Sheets for all these years even though every poster on every teams message board has proposed trades to steal Sheets from the Brewers. If the Reds can get Willis, then they need to do it no matter the cost.

beb30
04-28-2006, 10:15 AM
Do whatever it takes to get Dontrelle Willis in Cincinnati........

cincy jacket
04-28-2006, 10:24 AM
I think I would be willing to give up one of either Homer or EE in a package to get Willis but not both. A #1 like Willis is something we have not had around here in forever, but for as good as Willis is there is still a certain risk in dealing for him. His troubles in the second half of seasons are well documented and his declining K rate also raises some ?'s. With that being said though do what you have to do to get this deal done. If flying Larue back to Cincy on private plane for surgery gave the team a big moral boost in spring training like they said it did, imagine what trading for Willis would do not only to the team but to the fan base. Package a deal around EE, Wood and Kearns and see if they bite.

indyred
04-28-2006, 10:31 AM
I would give up a package of EE, Homer and Kearns for him........even that package probally wouldn't get it done.....I doubt they would have much interest in Kearns........

Aronchis
04-28-2006, 10:40 AM
I would stay away from Willis, his days as a power lefty are most likely nearing a end, which is why the Marlins are dangling him. Don't be the sucker.

MattyHo4Life
04-28-2006, 10:53 AM
I would stay away from Willis, his days as a power lefty are most likely nearing a end, which is why the Marlins are dangling him. Don't be the sucker.

If the Marlins trade Willis, it isn't because he isn't any good. It is because they aren't planning on contending anytime soon, and Willis isn't on their timetable. If you want to win now... you get Willis.

Krusty
04-28-2006, 10:56 AM
If the Reds are adding Kearns, they need to get Cabrera in return along with Willis?

What would it take to get Willis and Cabrera? How about Kearns, Encarncion, Bailey, Wagner and RHP Travis Chick?

Reds would then use either Freel or Denorfia in RF. If you look at his stats lately, Denorifa is showing that he hasn't nothing to prove at Triple A.

Newman4
04-28-2006, 10:57 AM
:laugh:

Throw in Jon Coutlangus from AA to go with BJ and assign jersey #69. :evil:

Oxilon
04-28-2006, 11:00 AM
If it is true that the Marlins offered Willis to the Mets straight up for Wright then I think offering EdE and Bailey is to much. EdE might be close the the level of Wright in a year.

I'm as big as a fan of EdE than the rest of you. He's going to be an All Star 3B for the next decade and a half. But David Wright is one of those players that only comes along once in a decade. He has 'Scott Rolen' written all over him, and than some.

MattyHo4Life
04-28-2006, 11:07 AM
If the Reds are adding Kearns, they need to get Cabrera in return along with Willis?

That will never happen. Cabreara is one of the best players in the MLB and he's is still young and cheap. Talent wise you would have to add Dunn to compare, but then the finances don't work. The Reds might be able to make a package for Willis, but not Cabrera too.

REDREAD
04-28-2006, 11:07 AM
Guys, I like Edwin a lot too. But let's just remember, Kearns (and a host of others) were once thought to be "can't miss guys".

If you can get Willis for EdE and Homer, you do it before the Marlins change their minds.

If the Reds made that trade, all they'd have to do this winter is sign a Randa type to stop gap 3b, revamp the bullpen, and maybe add a .500 starting pitcher [to replace Dave Williams] to be legit contenders.

Krusty
04-28-2006, 11:11 AM
Guys, I like Edwin a lot too. But let's just remember, Kearns (and a host of others) were once thought to be "can't miss guys".

If you can get Willis for EdE and Homer, you do it before the Marlins change their minds.

If the Reds made that trade, all they'd have to do this winter is sign a Randa type to stop gap 3b, revamp the bullpen, and maybe add a .500 starting pitcher [to replace Dave Williams] to be legit contenders.

If the Reds trade Encarncion for Willis, they could get by with Aurilia and Freel for the remainder of the season.

Nugget
04-28-2006, 11:15 AM
I would stay away from Willis, his days as a power lefty are most likely nearing a end, which is why the Marlins are dangling him. Don't be the sucker.

Good call - from what I saw in the WBC it would appear that Willis could turn from a #1 to #4 if he cannot overpower batters.

registerthis
04-28-2006, 11:30 AM
I wouldn't deal EE or Kearns in that deal. What happens to the offense? Willis then goes from a team with no offense to a team that is one Jr. hammy tear away from having no O.

Yep, you're right. A team with Dunn, Lopez, Freel, Aurilia, LaRue, Phillips and either EE/Kearns would be "no offense."

registerthis
04-28-2006, 11:40 AM
I would stay away from Willis, his days as a power lefty are most likely nearing a end, which is why the Marlins are dangling him. Don't be the sucker.

Yep, at 24 he's definitely reached his peak.

He's had an "average" April, but while his K's are down slightly from a year ago, his GB/FB ratio is actually quite a bit better.

Rumors of his demise have been greatly exagerrated.

westofyou
04-28-2006, 11:45 AM
Yep, at 24 he's definitely reached his peak.

He's had an "average" April, but while his K's are down slightly from a year ago, his GB/FB ratio is actually quite a bit better.

Rumors of his demise have been greatly exagerrated.
The guy has a vilolent motion that is fraught with mechanics that MUST be employed to display his stuff, problem is that motion has a chance of wearing his arm down before he gets older.

I'd be careful trading for any pitcher who threw like that.

Caveat Emperor
04-28-2006, 11:51 AM
The guy has a vilolent motion that is fraught with mechanics that MUST be employed to display his stuff, problem is that motion has a chance of wearing his arm down before he gets older.

I'd be careful trading for any pitcher who threw like that.

I imagine he's a nightmare for a pitching coach, because when he's not finding success on the mound, if it's due to a mechanical flaw it's a mechanical flaw relative to an already completely out of the ordinary delivery. How do you tell a guy what he's doing wrong if he's already doing absolutely nothing right?

Still -- it's hard to argue with the success he's had over the last two years. I imagine if he was going to break down from doing that herky-jerky delivery, it would've happened before now.

registerthis
04-28-2006, 11:57 AM
Still -- it's hard to argue with the success he's had over the last two years. I imagine if he was going to break down from doing that herky-jerky delivery, it would've happened before now.

And he's still young enough that even if the delivery is going to cause him problems, there's a good chance it won't be until he's off somewhere else.

Sure, he *could* injure himself, but there's no indication yet that he has or will.

westofyou
04-28-2006, 12:02 PM
And he's still young enough that even if the delivery is going to cause him problems, there's a good chance it won't be until he's off somewhere else.

Sure, he *could* injure himself, but there's no indication yet that he has or will.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2649

Last year's sensation, Dontrelle Willis, broke down under a workload he had never faced. As he wore down physically, his glove-side arm weakened and threw off his dynamic balance. Key on his glove as you watch him pitch instead of the high leg and you'll know whether he'll be sensational or one-hit wonder quickly. (For the record, that famous high leg kick is neither deceptive nor gimmick. It contributes strongly to his linear loading, just in case you were wondering.)

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4863

Dontrelle Willis has changed his complicated motion yet again. Not only is he throwing across his body, but he isn't raising his leg as much. He's also cocking his arm while it's positioned above his head. After his two poor performances in the Classic, we have to wonder if Willis has much left for the Marlins. “Without a solid Willis at the top of their rotation, the Marlins may not win 40,” Brad said.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3787


Red light SP Dontrelle Willis: It's not his mechanics that get him the red; they really aren't that different if you can get past the high leg kick. It's the innings--a ton of them in the last two years--at such a young age. You have to hope this red light is wrong, because baseball needs more Dontrelles.

MartyFan
04-28-2006, 12:04 PM
Homer, EdE, and Kearns would get him. I don't want to trade those guys, but I would do it in a second to get Dontrelle. There is only one problem, Encarnacion wouldn't have a place to play with Cabrera at 3rd.

I think that BoB and Krivsky want to win, this year, we'll see how far they are willing to go. For the Reds to even be mentioned in the same sentence as Dontrelle Willis is a step in the right direction.

Like they wouldn't move Cabrera to get more holes filled with top tier prospects...sure, they would do a trade for Homer, EE and Kearns...I would too!

M2
04-28-2006, 12:12 PM
Yeah, EE is close to untouchable. Kearns and Bailey for Willis? Yeah. I'd give em BJ too. But not EE.

I totally agree.

I also maintain that Kearns, Bailey and an extra or two would likely beat any offer the Marlins would get for Willis.

To those insisting otherwise I ask, what organization is going to pay more?

huber14
04-28-2006, 12:13 PM
how serious are these talks? if the reds get Willis i will cheer like i have never cheered before

RedsMan3203
04-28-2006, 12:16 PM
Pass.

Caveat Emperor
04-28-2006, 12:19 PM
Dontrelle Willis has changed his complicated motion yet again. Not only is he throwing across his body, but he isn't raising his leg as much. He's also cocking his arm while it's positioned above his head. After his two poor performances in the Classic, we have to wonder if Willis has much left for the Marlins. “Without a solid Willis at the top of their rotation, the Marlins may not win 40,” Brad said.

He had 2 bad starts in what amounted to be the start of spring training at the WBC. There were a lot of members of Team USA that contributed to that choke artist affair.

So far this season, opposing hitters are OPS'ing .585 off him -- a full .100 points lower than it was last year. He's not going to maintain that pace, but he's definately not showing signs of a pitcher that's starting to get hit. He's not missing as many bats as usual, with a K/9 rate that's about half a strikeout off his totals for last year, and he is walking batters a bit higher rate than usual -- those are both kinda troubling, but it's early in the year.

Maybe it's not a smart acquisition, maybe it is...He may very well break down -- I've never seen a pitcher with his kind of delivery before, so I have nothing to compare him to. All the great mechanics in the world havent't helped keep Mark Prior healthy, though. Willis might be due for a fall, but I'd at least let him get roughed up a bit before I start booking with funeral homes to bury his career.

registerthis
04-28-2006, 12:37 PM
Dontrelle Willis has changed his complicated motion yet again. Not only is he throwing across his body, but he isn't raising his leg as much. He's also cocking his arm while it's positioned above his head. After his two poor performances in the Classic, we have to wonder if Willis has much left for the Marlins. “Without a solid Willis at the top of their rotation, the Marlins may not win 40,” Brad said.


Super. He's being judged based upon two sub-par performances in the WBC. Forgive me for not being convinced.

And I'm not sure where this came from:


Last year's sensation, Dontrelle Willis, broke down under a workload he had never faced.

He threw far more innings than he ever had before, and yet 3 of his last four starts were 8 innings or more, and in those 3 starts he gave up a grand total of 5 ERs while strking out 18. Only a poor final game against Washington ended his season on a low note. That's some breakdown.

westofyou
04-28-2006, 12:44 PM
He threw far more innings than he ever had before, and yet 3 of his last four starts were 8 innings or more, and in those 3 starts he gave up a grand total of 5 ERs while strking out 18. Only a poor final game against Washington ended his season on a low note. That's some breakdown.

Will Carroll focuses more on pitches and pitches thrown in "stress situations" I'll take his pitching acumen in most instances, whether others do or not is their business, but be sure he's not "glancing at IP" and deciding on this .

johngalt
04-28-2006, 12:51 PM
I totally agree.

I also maintain that Kearns, Bailey and an extra or two would likely beat any offer the Marlins would get for Willis.

To those insisting otherwise I ask, what organization is going to pay more?

The Marlins have a thing for ML-ready players for the most part, and I think you could easily see another team offering up a pitcher on the cusp of the bigs instead of Bailey in addition to a quality bat and another couple others.

M2
04-28-2006, 12:55 PM
It seems to me that Willis might just be a throwback to the 1970s, the kind of guy who starts early, throws a ton of innings and keeps doing it for a decade.

When he first came up I figured the Marlins were just trying to kill another young pitcher, but Willis has since distinguished himself as something well out of the norm. It doesn't hurt that he's got a great frame and tremendous athleticism either.

Anyway, would you have traded for a 24-year-old Vida Blue? Because, IMO, you're probably getting something similar with Willis.

lollipopcurve
04-28-2006, 01:08 PM
To those insisting otherwise I ask, what organization is going to pay more?

What I heard is that Florida would want a good CF prospect. To me, that screams Arizona, who have Upton, Chris Young and Carlos Gonzalez. They have upper level pitching prospects like Dustin Nippert, Matt Chico and Micah Owings. If top-notch CF talent is Florida's main target, AZ could outbid the Reds.

I'll go on record as being against these Willis scenarios -- but it's a tough call for sure.

Redmachine2003
04-28-2006, 01:18 PM
No way no shape no form would I trade Homer and EE for Willis. Willis will be a freeagent in a couple of years and comand big money. Homer has the Willis upside and EE is already one of the top run producers in the League so the sky is the limit for both of these guys.

DeadRedinCT
04-28-2006, 01:27 PM
No way no shape no form would I trade Homer and EE for Willis. Willis will be a freeagent in a couple of years and comand big money. Homer has the Willis upside and EE is already one of the top run producers in the League so the sky is the limit for both of these guys.

Willis was a "Super 2" arbitration player this past winter. He won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2009 season.

Jr's Boy
04-28-2006, 01:34 PM
I may be in favor of pulling the trigger on that deal,however who plays 3rd if EE is dealt?Lord knows 3b has been a revolving door.

westofyou
04-28-2006, 01:39 PM
Lord knows 3b has been a revolving door.

By far the worst position in Reds history.

Hands down, there is no competition, even the pitching has been better.

M2
04-28-2006, 01:43 PM
What I heard is that Florida would want a good CF prospect. To me, that screams Arizona, who have Upton, Chris Young and Carlos Gonzalez. They have upper level pitching prospects like Dustin Nippert, Matt Chico and Micah Owings. If top-notch CF talent is Florida's main target, AZ could outbid the Reds.

I'll go on record as being against these Willis scenarios -- but it's a tough call for sure.

Nippert's getting smacked around pretty good at the moment and he's had injury problems. Chico carried a 4.08 minor league ERA into this season and has never been a highly regarded prospect. Owings is doing awfully well, but was only a third rounder last June.

Gonzalez, IMO, is overrated. That may not bug the Marlins, but he's only in High A and doesn't look like he's going to rocket up to higher levels any time soon.

My guess is if the D-Backs put Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Micah Owings on the table, that would get the attention of the Marlins. I doubt they're trading Upton. Though can Arizona take on Willis' contract moving forward? That franchise has some serious financial woes to contend with. The Reds wipe Paul Wilson and the leftover from Sean Casey off the books after this season and Eric Milton comes free the year after that.

Also, Arizona's on the verge of a major youth movement. Would the Snakes even be willing to part with three components of that movement at this point in time? This may not be the diem that franchise intends to carpe.

dougdirt
04-28-2006, 01:43 PM
Personally I pass on Homer and Edwin for Willis. Maybe I am biased, but I think those two guys are the only two untouchables in the system right now. Anyone else you could probably convince me of, but those two are the ones I dont let go of, much less together in one deal.

BrooklynRedz
04-28-2006, 01:47 PM
Personally I pass on Homer and Edwin for Willis. Maybe I am biased, but I think those two guys are the only two untouchables in the system right now. Anyone else you could probably convince me of, but those two are the ones I dont let go of, much less together in one deal.

The Reds would be foolish to consider any minor leaguer an untouchable.

registerthis
04-28-2006, 01:48 PM
Will Carroll focuses more on pitches and pitches thrown in "stress situations" I'll take his pitching acumen in most instances, whether others do or not is their business, but be sure he's not "glancing at IP" and deciding on this .

Well, what is he glancing at then? I just reviewed the last two months of Willis's season in 2005, and nothing strikes me as a "breakdown." Perhaps Mr. Carroll is witnessing something in his delivery or pitch command that has him concerned, but if so it's not reflected in his stats.

Caveat Emperor
04-28-2006, 01:54 PM
Personally I pass on Homer and Edwin for Willis. Maybe I am biased, but I think those two guys are the only two untouchables in the system right now. Anyone else you could probably convince me of, but those two are the ones I dont let go of, much less together in one deal.

Basically, trading Homer for a pitcher like Willis is like putting Bailey in the DeLorean and sending him 4 years into the future.

If you can turn Homer into a #1 starter, you make the move. Period. Waiting for him to become a #1 on his own is like playing russian roulette with live rounds, given the history of the Reds farm system and the general history of first round prep arms in drafts past.

Let some other team assume the risk of his development and take high value return instead.

M2
04-28-2006, 02:01 PM
Basically, trading Homer for a pitcher like Willis is like putting Bailey in the DeLorean and sending him 4 years into the future.

If you can turn Homer into a #1 starter, you make the move. Period. Waiting for him to become a #1 on his own is like playing russian roulette with live rounds, given the history of the Reds farm system and the general history of first round prep arms in drafts past.

Let some other team assume the risk of his development and take high value return instead.

Yep.


The Reds would be foolish to consider any minor leaguer an untouchable.

And yep. What sets Encarnacion apart is that he's no longer a prospect.

Moments like this is where I truly wish the Reds had some legitimate prospects in the upper minors to add balast to this kind offer. It would be really nice if Miguel Perez could swing a bat with any sort of effectiveness because somebody might be willing to get goofy over his defense if he could.

westofyou
04-28-2006, 02:07 PM
Well, what is he glancing at then?
I'd assume pitches per inning, pitches with runners on, pitches after a certain plateau, a myriad of data that monkeys like us on the lower canopy never see.

I'd also think that he's refering to his mechanics from a scouting perspective.

dougdirt
04-28-2006, 02:08 PM
Basically, trading Homer for a pitcher like Willis is like putting Bailey in the DeLorean and sending him 4 years into the future.

If you can turn Homer into a #1 starter, you make the move. Period. Waiting for him to become a #1 on his own is like playing russian roulette with live rounds, given the history of the Reds farm system and the general history of first round prep arms in drafts past.

Let some other team assume the risk of his development and take high value return instead.

Thats only if you are assuming the Bailey cant be better than Willis. I think Bailey can be better than Willis. There are chances and good ones based on past evidence that first round high school draft picks arent going to succeed, but there are always exceptions. I dont care what the history of the Reds Farm System has done....those guys, those instructors, those coaches, they arent with Bailey. Those players who were hurt, they didnt have his arm or his mechanics....can he get hurt? Sure. I just dont like the idea of getting Willis for those two players based on what they can be one day for the Reds. We can agree that we have differering opinions on this, but either way I dont think this deal is going down.

westofyou
04-28-2006, 02:10 PM
I think Bailey can be better than Willis.

Lottery Tickets can make you rich in one trip to 7-11 too.

TINNSAPP

MattyHo4Life
04-28-2006, 02:12 PM
Thats only if you are assuming the Bailey cant be better than Willis. I think Bailey can be better than Willis.

There are a ton of players that teams thought would be better than an Ace like Willis, and very few of them ever panned out. I'm not saying the same thing will happen with Homer, but the odds are in favor of it.

M2
04-28-2006, 02:14 PM
Thats only if you are assuming the Bailey cant be better than Willis. I think Bailey can be better than Willis.

No one knows that and that it would take half a decade to find it out. Everything you're now saying was said five years ago about Ty Howington. That doesn't mean Bailey's going down the same route, but if the Reds can take the sure thing and let someone else embrace the mystery, then that's a trade I'd applaud.

Sabo Fan
04-28-2006, 02:23 PM
Will Carroll focuses more on pitches and pitches thrown in "stress situations" I'll take his pitching acumen in most instances, whether others do or not is their business, but be sure he's not "glancing at IP" and deciding on this .

Great point as always woy. IP are a bad way to evaluate pitcher usage. Maddux at his peak could go seven, eight, or nine and not break 100 pitches, meaning he could rack up the innings but not the pitch counts that most would usually attribut to the innngs he would throw. Of course Maddux is an outlier anyway, so maybe that's not the best example.

Either way, I've got some workload concerns about Willis as well. He seems to have been used in a similar manner to the way Carlos Zambrano has been by the Cubs. For the longest time I thought the guy was headed for a breakdown, but now I think he may have some Livan Hernandez-like durability. Willis could very well be the same way, an exception to the young age/high workload concerns that seem to plague so many pitchers. Ultimately I don't know if Willis ever achieves full-blown #1 status. More likely he's a real good #2, but then again I'm the pessimistic type when it comes to pitchers. Best case he's a lefthanded Carlos Zambrano.

Count me as one who would jump at a package for Willis that centers around Homer Bailey, but I draw the line at EE. EE is as special a talent as this organization has had at any time in the last 20 years, up there with Larkin, Dunn, Davis, etc.

Caveat Emperor
04-28-2006, 02:40 PM
Thats only if you are assuming the Bailey cant be better than Willis. I think Bailey can be better than Willis. There are chances and good ones based on past evidence that first round high school draft picks arent going to succeed, but there are always exceptions. I dont care what the history of the Reds Farm System has done....those guys, those instructors, those coaches, they arent with Bailey. Those players who were hurt, they didnt have his arm or his mechanics....can he get hurt? Sure. I just dont like the idea of getting Willis for those two players based on what they can be one day for the Reds. We can agree that we have differering opinions on this, but either way I dont think this deal is going down.

I'd love to believe it's a new era in Reds prospect development -- but it's hard to ignore that every major prospect that has come through the pipeline in the past 20 years has been derailed by major or catastrophic arm injury. Howington, Gruler, Basham, Pauley, Gardner and a litnay of other guys before them all point to absolutely horrid prospect development and coaching by the Reds instructional staff, a lack of good scouting, and piles of awful luck.

I've heard this talk before -- great stuff, fire flows from the fingers when he trows, clear-cut #1 stuff. It all ends the same way: on the mound, in Chattanooga, with the report saying he's feeling soreness or stiffness in his throwing shoulder/elbow. Second verse, same as the first.

Bailey making the majors is an even money bet, at best. It's easy to get excited about what he's doing -- but he's 20 years old, and has AT LEAST 2 complete years of minor league ball to pitch if he's on a good timetable (full season at high-A, full season at AA w/ callup in september, major leagues in 2008). That's 300-400 innings of baseball to be thrown, 3,000 to 4,000 windups and deliveries before he even gets to take a seat in the big league bullpen and wait his turn for mopup duty in a September game.

And, you can talk about "great mechanics" all you want -- but I remember reading about the great mechanics Mark Prior had, as I stated earlier, and it hasn't helped him stay off the shelf.

If I can have Dontrelle Willis right now, who can win ballgames and be a Cy Young candidate RIGHT NOW at a mere 4 years older than Bailey, I make that deal 100 times out of 100. The odds just aren't good enough for the Reds to blow a chance at dealing a hype-machine prep arm that could come crashing down tomorrow -- especially if Willis is the type of return you're getting.

registerthis
04-28-2006, 03:02 PM
I'd assume pitches per inning, pitches with runners on, pitches after a certain plateau, a myriad of data that monkeys like us on the lower canopy never see.

I'd also think that he's refering to his mechanics from a scouting perspective.

Willis had one poor month--July. In August, he was exceptional, and in September he was back to being merely very good (2.49 ERA, 5 QS). His pitches per inning in September (14.8) were the second lowest of any month in 2005 (behind April, which had 13.2), so he was still efficient. His Ks were down and walks were up slightly in the second half, largely a factor of his poor July. Beyond that, he was essentially as effective and efficient in August and September as he was in April and May. I'm still not seeing the "breakdown."

westofyou
04-28-2006, 03:06 PM
Willis had one poor month--July. In August, he was exceptional, and in September he was back to being merely very good (2.49 ERA, 5 QS). His pitches per inning in September (14.8) were the second lowest of any month in 2005 (behind April, which had 13.2), so he was still efficient. His Ks were down and walks were up slightly in the second half, largely a factor of his poor July. Beyond that, he was essentially as effective and efficient in August and September as he was in April and May. I'm still not seeing the "breakdown."
Probably because the article is talking about the 2003 season in that particular piece.

The point is there is a long history of his mechanics being scrutanized, it's not a new arrow being shot at him.

registerthis
04-28-2006, 03:08 PM
Probably because the article is talking about the 2003 season in that particular piece.

Ahhh, NOW you tell me. I want the 15 minutes of my life I spent looking that stuff up back. ;)

westofyou
04-28-2006, 03:09 PM
Ahhh, NOW you tell me. I want the 15 minutes of my life I spent looking that stuff up back. ;)
Sorry... I'm still writing James Cameron about the 3 hours I spent on Titantic.

Highlifeman21
04-28-2006, 03:48 PM
Sorry... I'm still writing James Cameron about the 3 hours I spent on Titantic.

At least you weren't dragged to that epic by 3 different women... While that doesn't sound all that bad, having to act like it was the first time I'd seen it for times 2 and 3, no easy matter.

KronoRed
04-28-2006, 04:28 PM
Homer, EdE, and Kearns would get him.
I doubt it, Kearns is too expensive for the bottom basement Marlins, Homer could be fools gold, EE isn't enough on his own.

IMO :)

Chip R
04-28-2006, 04:39 PM
At least you weren't dragged to that epic by 3 different women... While that doesn't sound all that bad, having to act like it was the first time I'd seen it for times 2 and 3, no easy matter.

DYGA?:evil:

Highlifeman21
04-28-2006, 04:56 PM
DYGA?:evil:


No. Nice try.

Although that movie did spark my profound love for all things Celine Dion....

M2
04-28-2006, 05:07 PM
"Titanic" strikes me as a horrible date movie. It takes forever and your date is bound to come away wondering if you'd be worth throwing a priceless necklace into the ocean.

Back in the day I took three separate dates to see "The Breakfast Club." That was a perfect date movie. Rebel against your parents in specific and authority in general, preferably by getting intimate with the nearest possible guy. Now that's a message an 18-year-old guy wants to send his date.

westofyou
04-28-2006, 05:09 PM
Would you walk on by?

johngalt
04-28-2006, 05:55 PM
No. Nice try.

Although that movie did spark my profound love for all things Celine Dion....

Three times with nothing to show for it? I'm not sure whether I should feel sorry for you or ridicule you. ;)

Highlifeman21
04-28-2006, 05:59 PM
Three times with nothing to show for it? I'm not sure whether I should feel sorry for you or ridicule you. ;)


Each time Titanic served its purpose. :D

Feel sorry, ridicule, they all are very fitting.

Now if I were only a better sketch artist, I'm guessing that whole drawing chicks naked thing might work out fairly well.

Jr's Boy
04-28-2006, 06:07 PM
If i were Krivsky I would pull out all the stops to get Willis.Cy Young material in Cincy,team credibility,who woulda thought.

UC_Ken
04-28-2006, 06:31 PM
Book it. I love EdE but even though I love Bailey a single-A pitcher is at best a 50/50 bet. Dontrelle despite the high IP has never shown any real indication he won't be able to handle the workload. He is a legitimate no.1 starter you can build your rotation around. Willis, Harang, and Arroyo are the beginning of something special. Look at how the White Sox did it last year. 5 quality starters takes a ton of pressure off your bullpen. We'd still have enough relatively young hitting left with Dunn, Kearns, Lopez, and Freel. We could win titles with that group and we can't without a bona-fide #1 pitcher.

realistic
04-28-2006, 08:47 PM
Lets say Willis gets to Cincy and his ERA balloons a full run the next 3 years playing in GAB. Then we will be posting here in 2009 wondering if we should pay the 15mill a year and outbid the Yankeees for our 4.50 ERA free agent pitcher. Right about the same time Homer will be ready for the majors (projected). I worry we may have that Colorado problem where pitchers get out as quick as possible and free agents dont pick up the phone when they see Cincinnati on the caller ID. Id not trade 6 years of EE and Homer for 2.5 years of Willis. Right now id still like to try to draft and develop some pitchers. However, if we do have a 5 game lead in late June...id do it fast. Otherwise id wait till December and offer a 5 year FR deal to someone like Armas, Escobar or Zito. Baby steps.

I do think Willis would bring immediate respectability and energy to the franchise and Id not really be upset if the deal were made. It would be an encouraging roll of the dice in a way. But from a logical, long term point of view its a bad idea for the franchise imho.

Just to stir up some Dunn lovers. Id offer Dunn/EE/Bailey for Willis/Cabrera.

registerthis
04-29-2006, 02:00 AM
Lets say Willis gets to Cincy and his ERA balloons a full run the next 3 years playing in GAB. Then we will be posting here in 2009 wondering if we should pay the 15mill a year and outbid the Yankeees for our 4.50 ERA free agent pitcher. Right about the same time Homer will be ready for the majors (projected). I worry we may have that Colorado problem where pitchers get out as quick as possible and free agents dont pick up the phone when they see Cincinnati on the caller ID.

The offensive factor for GABP is overstated....it slightly increases HRs and supresses others. It's nothing like Colorado.

realistic
04-29-2006, 03:07 AM
Thats how you want to spin it? If that makes you feel better about it, then go ahead. But its a hitters park no doubt about it.

Example : I like Arroyo , a lot, loved the trade and its paying off as expected. But when his ERA nears 5.00 later in the year you guys will all be shocked and wondering what happened. I doubt Roger Clemens could keep an ERA under 4 over a 200 inning season in Cincy. Agents and pitchers know that, thats all im sayin.

M2
04-29-2006, 03:08 AM
The offensive factor for GABP is overstated....it slightly increases HRs and supresses others. It's nothing like Colorado.

And Dontrelle Willis may be the toughest pitcher in all of MLB to take deep.

M2
04-29-2006, 03:16 AM
Thats how you want to spin it? If that makes you feel better about it, then go ahead. But its a hitters park no doubt about it.

Example : I like Arroyo , a lot, loved the trade and its paying off as expected. But when his ERA nears 5.00 later in the year you guys will all be shocked and wondering what happened. I doubt Roger Clemens could keep an ERA under 4 over a 200 inning season in Cincy. Agents and pitchers know that, thats all im sayin.

Aaron Harang did it and he's no Roger Clemens.

Here's the facts (because these things are quantifiable and the records are kept), the GAB played as a neutral park in 2003, a fairly extreme pitching park in 2004 and a good offensive park last year. The pitching swing in 2004 was due almost solely to creative groundskeeping.

Over the three-year life of the park, it's been generous to homers and a touch below average for singles. The best overall HR park in the majors over the past three years, and it's not particularly close, is U.S. Cellular Field ... where the world champion White Sox play. And I'm going to go out on a limb and say they proved you CAN pitch successfully in that environment.

realistic
04-29-2006, 04:11 AM
Id bet Harang is over 4.00 at the end of season this year.

This season runs are up leaguewide, for whatever reason you want to choose.

More runs = more ab's
more ab's= more hr's

Now, when you play where you are already are ripe for the HR, this trend will raise Reds ERA's and not at a linear rate.

Maybe all the high scoring is just a random early season trend? But I think theres more to it and I expect the high scoring games to continue a few years at least.


You are right though Willis hasnt historically been a HR pitcher. Id like to see a chart on where the balls were hit , many deep flies? But no way anyone can expect him to put up the same numbers in Cincy as he has in Florida for a full season. Put Dunn or FeLo in Florida and see how many HR's they hit

buckeyenut
04-29-2006, 07:35 AM
FLA wouldn't want Dunn and I am not willing to deal EE unless Cabrera is coming back. But, if Cast is willing to OK the money increase for next year to keep the guys, I am willing to do a package of EE, Bailey, Votto, Wagner, Bruce (I think FLA might want him over Kearns), and another prospect or two for Cabrera and Willis.

Given the arb dollars both guys will make after this season, I think FLA considers strongly a deal like that.

GAC
04-29-2006, 08:38 AM
Some very good comments/discussion going on here.

I too have always been concerned with Willis' erratic pitching motion and have wondered how long till arm trouble?

And to sacrifice a player like EE, along with what talent we do have in this farm system (Bailey, Wags, Bruce, Votto), makes me very, very wary.

westofyou
04-29-2006, 11:24 AM
Thats how you want to spin it? If that makes you feel better about it, then go ahead. But its a hitters park no doubt about it.


Yeah other than all that data that says it's not....

M2
04-29-2006, 11:57 AM
Id bet Harang is over 4.00 at the end of season this year.

This season runs are up leaguewide, for whatever reason you want to choose.

He may be. He might not be. Point is he finished with over 200 IP and a sub-4.00 ERA last year pitching half his innings at the GAB. In fact, he had a 3.31 ERA at the GAB and a 4.30 ERA on the road.

You've grossly overestimated the effect of the park on the pitchers who work there.


You are right though Willis hasnt historically been a HR pitcher. Id like to see a chart on where the balls were hit , many deep flies? But no way anyone can expect him to put up the same numbers in Cincy as he has in Florida for a full season. Put Dunn or FeLo in Florida and see how many HR's they hit

I actually think the greater drain on his pitching numbers would be the Reds' defense. Regardless of that, if the GAB's HR tendencies are such a great concern for you then Dontrelle Willis should be exactly the kind of pitcher you'd want to acquire.

realistic
04-29-2006, 12:01 PM
Yeah other than all that data that says it's not....


I can use data to prove the world is flat or the sky is green, but at some point common sense intervenes.

westofyou
04-29-2006, 12:03 PM
I can use data to prove the world is flat or the sky is green, but at some point common sense intervenes.
You would think so.

BTW is that the same common sense that got the Reds Eric Milton too?

TC81190
04-29-2006, 12:05 PM
I'm just wondering.




If we have roughly the same record in July as we do now (as far as W's vs. L's), do you think WayneK will try to make some deals to push us into the playoffs?

M2
04-29-2006, 12:17 PM
I can use data to prove the world is flat or the sky is green, but at some point common sense intervenes.

We know the park effects the same we know the Reds beat the Tigers in seven games to win the 1940 World Series or that Pete Rose collected 4,256 in his career. It happened and somebody bothered to count and record it when it did.

Common sense would tell you to heed the rather simple work of determining what the GAB's actual park effects are.

Edd Roush
04-29-2006, 12:25 PM
After reading all this whole thread, I think I am becoming much mroe willing to see the Reds deal EdE plus Bailey for Willis. I think that Willis would make our pitching staff so much better by putting in a Top 20 pitcher for one of the worst starters in baseball with Dave Williams.

Considering this deal is done what would you think about a defense like this. Moving Phillips to third and putting Freel full-time at second. Phillips definately has the arm for third and is much better defensively than Freel. Do you guys think something like that could work out.

Give us a line-up of
Freel 2b
Lopez SS
Dunn lf
kearns Rf
Jr Cf
phillips 3b
hatteburg 1b
valentin/larue
p

I think this could work out well for the Reds. I also believe that Homer is far from a sure bet. Dontrelle is much more of a safe bet and could make the Reds for real. It would be a great way to make Wayno/Castellini look like gods in Cincinnati.

realistic
04-29-2006, 12:28 PM
He may be. He might not be. Point is he finished with over 200 IP and a sub-4.00 ERA last year pitching half his innings at the GAB. In fact, he had a 3.31 ERA at the GAB and a 4.30 ERA on the road.

You've grossly overestimated the effect of the park on the pitchers who work there.



I actually think the greater drain on his pitching numbers would be the Reds' defense. Regardless of that, if the GAB's HR tendencies are such a great concern for you then Dontrelle Willis should be exactly the kind of pitcher you'd want to acquire.

Oh, Id for sure love to acquire Willis. Id also like Oswalt,Peavy,Clemens and Pedro. And btw, Willis numbers at the GAB are actually better than at home vs the Reds. But my point from the start was that if the Reds were to sacrifice good young talent to get Willis he would arrive with unrealistic expectations. Then 2.5 years later he will be ready to get the heck out of dodge at the exact same time Bailey should be primed to join a major league rortation at league minimum salary. I dont think thats a situation the front office wants to face, it would be safer to sign a free agent in the off season.

I had no idea the ballpark thing was such a sensitive issue around here. But id bet a lot of money if you ask NL pitchers where they least like to pitch , GAB is near the top. Ask hitters where they like to hit? Again, near the top.

M2
04-29-2006, 12:41 PM
Oh, Id for sure love to acquire Willis. Id also like Oswalt,Peavy,Clemens and Pedro. And btw, Willis numbers at the GAB are actually better than at home vs the Reds. But my point from the start was that if the Reds were to sacrifice good young talent to get Willis he would arrive with unrealistic expectations. Then 2.5 years later he will be ready to get the heck out of dodge at the exact same time Bailey should be primed to join a major league rortation at league minimum salary. I dont think thats a situation the front office wants to face, it would be safer to sign a free agent in the off season.

Free agents cost more and the chances of signing one at Willis' level are slim to none for a smaller market team. As for Bailey, he may have an impact in the majors someday and he may not. The Reds can worry about saving money in three years in three years. In the meantime they could have almost four years of Dontrelle Willis at the front of the rotation.


I had no idea the ballpark thing was such a sensitive issue around here. But id bet a lot of money if you ask NL pitchers where they least like to pitch , GAB is near the top. Ask hitters where they like to hit? Again, near the top.

It's not a sensitive subject, but it is a matter of documented fact and it's kind of silly to pretend it isn't. That pitchers and hitters might have that impression is more a reflection of the quality of Reds hitters and the suckitude of Reds pitchers. The Reds team makes it park effects seem much bigger than they are ... and we know this because we know exactly what the park effects have been.

M2
04-29-2006, 12:48 PM
FLA wouldn't want Dunn and I am not willing to deal EE unless Cabrera is coming back. But, if Cast is willing to OK the money increase for next year to keep the guys, I am willing to do a package of EE, Bailey, Votto, Wagner, Bruce (I think FLA might want him over Kearns), and another prospect or two for Cabrera and Willis.

I'd back EdE and Cabrera out of that deal and make it for Wllis alone. I love Bruce and think he'll be a fine player, but if you can take two A-ballers and turn them into a 24-year-old ace, then you do it.

realistic
04-29-2006, 01:01 PM
Ok, you guys forced me to look up some numbers to defend myself and I was shocked by the splits. I guess Ive just used the ballpark excuse to defend the Reds the past couple years to everyone around me so much that I convinced myself it was true. So, I was wrong about my assumptions about the GAB, Ill admit it. Thanks for the enligtenment.

I still say i wouldnt trade EE/Bailey today for Willis. If we have a realistic chance at the playoffs come july 31, Id reconsider. The Reds system is just so depleted from years of as you say 'suckitude' that I dont like the idea of trading valuable pieces away.

As far as being a small market team - that excuse dont fly with me. With no salary cap , its really up to what the owner is willing to spend (gamble) and we have very little idea about that yet.

M2
04-29-2006, 01:31 PM
I still say i wouldnt trade EE/Bailey today for Willis. If we have a realistic chance at the playoffs come july 31, Id reconsider. The Reds system is just so depleted from years of as you say 'suckitude' that I dont like the idea of trading valuable pieces away.

I wouldn't move EdE in that move because he'd be essential to delivering inside of the Willis window.

As for the farm system, it's a means to an end, not an end in itself. If you can get 24-year-old ace for some prospects then it seems to me the system has delivered.

Aronchis
04-30-2006, 12:26 AM
Doubtfull the Reds would include Bailey in any deal, nor would they for Willis. I think Bailey can only be had for a Number 1 righty. More likely they would seek Willis to pair with Bailey, thus finally pushing down Harang,Arroyo and Claussen's on the ladder and giving them legit 1-2. It would as they say, rock the Reds world and end a decade of suckiness. Homer is bigger than 2000 Austin Kearns/Adam Dunn because he plays a more crucial position the Reds lack talent in. It could change the franchise.

Considering the depth of pitching the Marlins are already developing in their system, they may be looking more for bats and future bats. The Reds don't have alot to offer, though Deno and a couple lower level bats may do the trick. The Marlins may think they can get alot out of Willis, but with the concerns I mentioned earlier, his value may be a bit dimmer.

M2
04-30-2006, 12:31 AM
I think Bailey can only be had for a Number 1 righty.

Why would that matter?