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Jpup
05-01-2006, 02:17 AM
Vote for the Reds Player Of The Month. :cool:

My vote goes to Arroyo.

SteelSD
05-01-2006, 02:51 AM
Adam Dunn.

VORP: 11.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
MLV: 8.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
EQA: .326 (Team Rank- 1st)
EQR: 18.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
RAR: 10.5 (Team Rank -1st)
RAP: 7.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
RARP: 10.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
Runs Created: 21.6 (Team Rank- 1st)
RC/27: 9.54 (Team Rank- 1st)
SECA: .646 (Team Rank- 1st)

Honorable Mention: Bronson Arroyo, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips, Todd Coffey.

Jpup
05-01-2006, 02:55 AM
Adam Dunn.

VORP: 11.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
MLV: 8.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
EQA: .326 (Team Rank- 1st)
EQR: 18.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
RAR: 10.5 (Team Rank -1st)
RAP: 7.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
RARP: 10.1 (Team Rank- 1st)
Runs Created: 21.6 (Team Rank- 1st)
RC/27: 9.54 (Team Rank- 1st)
SECA: .646 (Team Rank- 1st)

Honorable Mention: Bronson Arroyo, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips, Todd Coffey.


Do you have Arroyo compared to the rest of the team?

The Baumer
05-01-2006, 03:17 AM
Edwin has the highest VLOOP in the major leagues. He gets my vote.

SteelSD
05-01-2006, 03:28 AM
Do you have Arroyo compared to the rest of the team?

Don't need to compare Arroyo to the rest of the team at this point considering his numbers...

DIPS: 3.86
BABIP: .213

Arroyo has been exceptionally lucky thusfar but nothing I didn't expect the first time through the league.

Jpup
05-01-2006, 04:05 AM
Don't need to compare Arroyo to the rest of the team at this point considering his numbers...

DIPS: 3.86
BABIP: .213

Arroyo has been exceptionally lucky thusfar but nothing I didn't expect the first time through the league.

What do you expect him to do for the rest of the season?

redsmetz
05-01-2006, 06:16 AM
I chose Brandon Phillips almost right away before thinking about Bronson Arroyo, but now looking at the various stats, it could be any number of players. Maybe we should have had one more options...The Team!

GridironGrace
05-01-2006, 09:11 AM
Im gonna give my Vote to Eric Milton.

After the season he had last year who thought for a second that his first 2 Starts would be AWESOME outings in which we won. I think he helped us with that, gave the team the BELIEF that they could do well and win with what we have.

A confidence boost that propelled us through the month of April IMO.

Dunner44
05-01-2006, 10:39 AM
Anyone care to explain what all those funny words are? ;)

I know VORP is value over replacement player, but what are VLOOP, BABIP, DIPS, etc? Sorry I'm not a big stathead.... most of my exposure to VORP comes from football stats (i love football outsiders).

HalMorrisRules
05-01-2006, 12:19 PM
I chose Bronson. I think that the Reds and Bronson have a true symbiotic relationship. The Reds needed him to bring an AL East hardened pitching mentality and he needed this team to start out well so he wouldnt be thinking about "what could have been" in Boston. He surely hasnt been given any reason between the white lines to feel like this isnt a good situation so far this season. If both sides of the relationship continue to feed off the other then this can be a very interesting summer.

Roy Tucker
05-01-2006, 12:30 PM
Can I vote "All"?

timmario66
05-01-2006, 12:35 PM
I voted for Phillips because if they didn't have him when Griffey got hurt, Womack would have been starting and not producing anywhere close to BP.

His hustle and enthusiasm has carried over to the rest of the team.

I guess they could have called up Denorfia though.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 12:38 PM
Arroyo, without a doubt.

Everyone knew the Reds "O" would be fine this year. The starting pitching after Harang was the biggest question mark, and while it still hasn't been resolved, Arroyo has pitched like a true ace for the first month of the year--the first legit ace the reds have had since Pete Schourek in the mid-90s. Whether or not he can continue remains to be seen, but skill and legitimacy that a guy like Arroyo has brought to the Reds' rotation undoubtedly makes him the player of the month.

Honorable mention to Brandon Phillips for coming out of nowhere and walkign away with the second base job all to himself.

RedsBaron
05-01-2006, 12:45 PM
Arroyo gets my vote. From a purely statistical standpoint the vote arguably should go to Dunn, but I expected such production from Adam. I do not know whether or not Bronson can keep it up, but his performance has given the Reds thus far what they have lacked for so long---quality starting pitching.

GoReds
05-01-2006, 12:50 PM
Arroyo, hands down. It has been a long time since the Reds have had a pitcher have a month similar to Arroyo's. Simply put, Arroyo's addition has given a big boost to the rest of the staff and, apparently the team.

I like Adam - he's a statistician's dream. But there are times - like now - when it seems that there are those who feel the need to prop him up at every turn, lest Adam not be worshipped for the demi-god that he has become.

Or, am I the only one to notice his recent slump?

registerthis
05-01-2006, 12:55 PM
I like Adam - he's a statistician's dream. But there are times - like now - when it seems that there are those who feel the need to prop him up at every turn, lest Adam not be worshipped for the demi-god that he has become.

Saying that Arroyo was the team's most valuable player in April doesn't take away from what Dunn accomplishes. It merely acknowledges that there are others on this team who play an as-if-not-more vital role than Dunn plays. This team doesn't approach 17 wins in April with a Justin Germano, or whoever else was tabbed to be the starter before Arroyo arrived.

And if Arroyo and Dunn continue doing what they've been doing throughout the entire season, Arroyo will get team MVP hands down.

RedsManRick
05-01-2006, 01:03 PM
I chose Arroyo not because of an absolute greatest value comparison, but because we could pretty much expect the performance of Dunn (who clearly contributed the most), but Arroyo really gave us an unexpected 'boost' and defined our month. But also, it isn't simply a case of the best month of his career, which I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case for Phillips.

LincolnparkRed
05-01-2006, 01:05 PM
To be different, I went with Coffey since he will hopefully be the closer of the future plus Narron has put him in some tight situations so far this year and Todd has come through all of them.

SteelSD
05-01-2006, 01:17 PM
Anyone care to explain what all those funny words are? ;)

I know VORP is value over replacement player, but what are VLOOP, BABIP, DIPS, etc? Sorry I'm not a big stathead.... most of my exposure to VORP comes from football stats (i love football outsiders).

VORP- Value Over Replacement Player
MLV- Marginal Lineup Value
EQA- Equivalent Average
EQR- Equivalent Runs
RAR- Runs Above Replacement
RAP- Runs Above Position
RARP- Runs Above Replacement Position
RC- Runs Created
RC/27- Runs Created per 27 Outs
SECA- Secondary Average

DIPS- Defense Independent Pitching Stat
BABIP- Batting Average on Balls in Play


What do you expect him to do for the rest of the season?

Jpup, there are two schools of thought on that question:

1. Arroyo's BABIP numbers will regress to the mean while his HR rate remains high.

2. Arroyo is the kind of pitcher whose stuff will allow him to produce lower than average BABIP results and his HR rate will drop significantly.

Right now Arroyo's DIPS rate is 1.65, meaning that his DIPS is 1.65 times his ERA. Here's a list of the ten MLB Starting Pitchers with a DIPS rate higher than 1.60:

Jose Contreras (2.66)
Taylor Buchholz (2.34)
John Thomson (2.27)
Greg Maddux (2.04)
Chris Carpenter (1.96)
Mark Buehrle (1.81)
Brian Bannister (1.80)
Scott Elarton (1.67)
Bronson Arroyo (1.65)
Brandon Webb (1.60)

For the most part, some good names to be sure but every one of them currently boasts an ERA much lower than what we should reasonably expect. From 2000 to 2005, only one MLB SP finished a season with a DIPS rate at or above 1.60 (Roger Clemens 2005- 1.61). Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that every player on that list will tighten their DIPS rate to get closer to 1.00. How much closer is the question.

If scenario 1 above plays out, Arroyo's ERA will increase to tighten the gap. That's doesn't necessarily mean that Arroyo's DIPS will increase, but if his BABIP snaps back hard in the other direction while his HR rate remains high we may end up with a guy who'll be on the other side of the DIPS rate fence (i.e. an ERA higher than his DIPS).

If scenario 2 plays out, Arroyo's DIPS will drop and end up more in line with his current ERA. That's the best case scenario, but it's also the most unlikely scenario because it involves on us assuming that Arroyo is a historical outlier.

There is a third scenario in which Arroyo's BABIP increases but his HR rate decreases while his K and BB rate remains constant. That would also most likely lower his DIPS rate- but not to the extreme of scenario 2.

Based on his performance history coupled with his fast start, I'll go out on a limb and suggest an amalgam of scenarios 1 and 3. If that occurs, we'll likely see Arroyo's ERA right around the 4.00 mark for the season. That's better than what I'd projected initially and that projection assumes that his K rate remains constant. If that K rate drops, we're off and running for a revision again.

SteelSD
05-01-2006, 01:25 PM
Arroyo, hands down. It has been a long time since the Reds have had a pitcher have a month similar to Arroyo's. Simply put, Arroyo's addition has given a big boost to the rest of the staff and, apparently the team.

I like Adam - he's a statistician's dream. But there are times - like now - when it seems that there are those who feel the need to prop him up at every turn, lest Adam not be worshipped for the demi-god that he has become.

Or, am I the only one to notice his recent slump?

Oh please. Spare me the rhetoric. Noting that Adam Dunn was the team's most productive player in April has nothing to do with anything other than noting that Adam Dunn was the team's most productive player in April.

Arroyo had a very good month as did a bunch of other guys. And yes, we haven't seen that kind of month from a Reds pitcher for a long time. Heck, we have to go all the way back to Aaron Harang's May 2005 to find it. That's almost a whole year!

GoReds
05-01-2006, 01:57 PM
Oh please. Spare me the rhetoric. Noting that Adam Dunn was the team's most productive player in April has nothing to do with anything other than noting that Adam Dunn was the team's most productive player in April.

Arroyo had a very good month as did a bunch of other guys. And yes, we haven't seen that kind of month from a Reds pitcher for a long time. Heck, we have to go all the way back to Aaron Harang's May 2005 to find it. That's almost a whole year!

Pretty much what I figured I would get. Thanks for that.

Dunn had a good month, but didn't stand out notably from the rest of the Reds hitters. He lead the Reds in TB, SLG and HRs, but only in HRs was the difference over the next guy signficant.

Arroyo, on the other hand, led or was second in almost every category for a starting pitcher this last month. He wasn't just better than the other guys, he was significantly better.

Dunn was the best hitter, for sure. I just don't see the need to shout it at every opportunity at the expense of a player who was so much better than the rest at his position for the previous month.

Falls City Beer
05-01-2006, 02:01 PM
Pretty much what I figured I would get. Thanks for that.

Dunn had a good month, but didn't stand out notably from the rest of the Reds hitters. He lead the Reds in TB, SLG and HRs, but only in HRs was the difference over the next guy signficant.

Arroyo, on the other hand, led or was second in almost every category for a starting pitcher this last month. He wasn't just better than the other guys, he was significantly better.

Dunn was the best hitter, for sure. I just don't see the need to shout it at every opportunity at the expense of a player who was so much better than the rest at his position for the previous month.

You make some good points. I was *this* close to picking Arroyo myself, but he spit the bit against the Cardinals when given a lead.

Yeah, I know; I'm pretty harsh on pitchers. But you can't get beat by the John Rodriguezes & David Ecksteins of the world. I actually have no problem with the back-to-backers by Pujols and Rolen.

But obviously, Dunn and Arroyo were neck and neck.

RedFanAlways1966
05-01-2006, 02:04 PM
To be different, I went with Coffey since he will hopefully be the closer of the future plus Narron has put him in some tight situations so far this year and Todd has come through all of them.

Not to take away from others on this team with a 17-8 April... Todd Coffey has been as close to perfect (for his job) as anyone else on this team in the month of April.

Are there any other closers or hold-guys who have comparable stats in MLB right now?

One month... sure. But show me another bullpen guy in MLB who has comparable stats. 0.60 ERA in 15 IP. Quite impressive and most likely to be overlooked on the REDS team.

GoReds
05-01-2006, 02:10 PM
Not to take away from others on this team with a 17-8 April... Todd Coffey has been as close to perfect (for his job) as anyone else on this team in the month of April.

Are there any other closers or hold-guys who have comparable stats in MLB right now?

One month... sure. But show me another bullpen guy in MLB who has comparable stats. 0.60 ERA in 15 IP. Quite impressive and most likely to be overlooked on the REDS team.

The good news is that this is actually a debate. I'm trying to remember the last time we were debating over players having GOOD months.

Cyclone792
05-01-2006, 02:16 PM
Not to take away from others on this team with a 17-8 April... Todd Coffey has been as close to perfect (for his job) as anyone else on this team in the month of April.

Are there any other closers or hold-guys who have comparable stats in MLB right now?

One month... sure. But show me another bullpen guy in MLB who has comparable stats. 0.60 ERA in 15 IP. Quite impressive and most likely to be overlooked on the REDS team.

Coffey's been one of the three or four best relievers in baseball so far this season, and he's easily been the Reds most valuable reliever. Weathers has the fancy saves numbers, but it's been Coffey getting the Reds through those 7th and 8th inning jams to preserve the save opportunity for Weathers anyway, and Coffey's likely been used in far more crucial situations than anybody else in the pen, Weathers included.

Boston's Papelbon and New York's Duaner Sanchez have arguably been more valuable relief pitchers in baseball this season, but Coffey's nipping at their heels.

Caveat Emperor
05-01-2006, 02:17 PM
I voted Bronson Arroyo.

His BABIP numbers suggest he's getting lucky -- but watching him pitch is a little revealing on this subject, as he seems to be inducing awful contact from hitters. That suggests to me, anecdotally, that he's really on his game and that his BABIP might be more a combination of luck and excellent stuff, as opposed to outright luck that some pitchers get with "at 'em" balls and sharp liners that the defense bails them out on.

His K/9 numbers are much more in line with previous seasons in his career, so as of right now the debtate of 2004 v. 2005 Bronson seems to be indicating 2005 Arroyo was the aberration -- but it's still a little early to make that determination.

However, it's worth mentioning that tonight's start at the GABP will be only Bronson's 2nd start at home. His previous outing at home was good, but slightly less dominant than he's been on the road in Milwaukee and Washtington (6.2 IP, 5R, 3ER, 2 HR, 7K). How he pitches at home will dictate, greatly, the kind of season Arroyo has.

Still, the question is who had the best April, and there's no question that player is Bronson Arroyo. Honorable mentions to Dunn, Phillips and Easy E.

The Baumer
05-01-2006, 02:35 PM
Anyone care to explain what all those funny words are? ;)

I know VORP is value over replacement player, but what are VLOOP, BABIP, DIPS, etc? Sorry I'm not a big stathead.... most of my exposure to VORP comes from football stats (i love football outsiders).

VLOOP is a very complicated stat I invented whose sole purpose is to give Edwin Encarnacion the league lead in VLOOP.

Reds1
05-01-2006, 02:50 PM
Man, what that list show me how special the month of April really was for the Reds. Most amazing is Griffey is not even in the top 10. If you would have told me that before the season started. Just impressive. I voted for Arroyo though as he has been better then expected and a pitcher that at least gives us some credibility. We have 2 guys right now we can win everytime they pitch. You know what I mean. go Reds

SteelSD
05-01-2006, 06:50 PM
Pretty much what I figured I would get. Thanks for that.

Dunn had a good month, but didn't stand out notably from the rest of the Reds hitters. He lead the Reds in TB, SLG and HRs, but only in HRs was the difference over the next guy signficant.

I'm not sure you'd understand how much better Adam Dunn was versus the rest of the Reds hitters, but when a guy ranks 6th in the NL in Equivalent Runs it's a pretty darn big deal. When he puts up a .326 EQA over 111 PA while the only other starting position player (Phillips) on the team to post an EQA over .300 has only 68 PA, that's a pretty darn big deal as well.

That being said, it's immaterial. Most productive player is most productive player. That doesn't denigrate what Arroyo did in April. It's just a fact.


Arroyo, on the other hand, led or was second in almost every category for a starting pitcher this last month. He wasn't just better than the other guys, he was significantly better.

That says everything about the other pitchers on the team (sans Coffey- who was great) and virtually nothing about Bronson Arroyo.


Dunn was the best hitter, for sure. I just don't see the need to shout it at every opportunity at the expense of a player who was so much better than the rest at his position for the previous month.

At the "expense of a player"? Go back and read my original post. Dunn was the most productive player on the team in April. Bronson Arroyo was first on my list of Honorable Mentions. I'd considered Arroyo until I noticed that his ERA was entirely out of line with his DIPS (a product of an awful HR rate, BTW).

Production doesn't play favorites. Either you added more value to your team than everyone else or you didn't. As soon as that more productive guy ends up being someone other than Dunn, you'll see me saying so. Until then, you won't.

And as for "so much better"...

Arroyo ranks 20th in the NL in DIPS at 3.89. The guy right behind him in 21st place at 4.00 DIPS is named Aaron Harang. One guy was lucky in April. One guy wasn't. You seem to think that being lucky means the former produced at a significantly higher rate than did the latter. I don't.

harangatang
05-01-2006, 07:12 PM
I voted for Harang because I felt he stepped it up against St. Louis by outdueling Carpenter and coming back on short rest and pitching a complete game shutout against Milwaukee. Both teams are definitely ones that the Reds have had trouble with and stepping it up when the team needs you the most is why he got my vote. He did have the one real rough start of Opening Day but everyone has their day every now and then.

The Baumer
05-01-2006, 10:44 PM
Mr. DIPS foiled again! We'll get you next time Arroyo!

GoReds
05-01-2006, 11:23 PM
SteelSD -

Like many here, I grew up spending hours scrutinizing every detail of just about every box score I could get my hands on. Sunday came and I could spend half the day looking through the league leaders. Of course, this was mostly during the Big Red Machine days, so they were pretty easy to look at.

Spent a lot of time playing most baseball simulations and continuing to feed the stat Jones. Loved the stuff. Couldn't get enough.

But, what I've seen from many over the past couple of years has soured the milk a bit. Stats can certainly be used to prop up an argument and make the poster look like a genius and the guy you are responding too like a buffoon. Of course, it can go both ways, ad nauseum. Why you feel the need to beat every contrary opinion over the head with the bat of stats is beyond me.

Love Adam Dunn. Can't believe what an extraordinary ballplayer he is and can't wait to see what he becomes in the next few years. Hope he retires a Red. He had a great month and deserves some recognition.

Kudos.

But, the original post was who people considered the MVP for April. Arroyo had an outstanding and, mostly, unexpected month. He deserves the recognition. At this point, nearly 63% of others feel the same.

Nobody's slamming Adam, least of all me. But, when I sent in my original post, I was expecting such a response. It just doesn't have to be about stats and/or the defense of Adam Dunn all channels, all the time.

SteelSD
05-02-2006, 12:15 AM
SteelSD -

Like many here, I grew up spending hours scrutinizing every detail of just about every box score I could get my hands on. Sunday came and I could spend half the day looking through the league leaders. Of course, this was mostly during the Big Red Machine days, so they were pretty easy to look at.

Spent a lot of time playing most baseball simulations and continuing to feed the stat Jones. Loved the stuff. Couldn't get enough.

But, what I've seen from many over the past couple of years has soured the milk a bit. Stats can certainly be used to prop up an argument and make the poster look like a genius and the guy you are responding too like a buffoon. Of course, it can go both ways, ad nauseum. Why you feel the need to beat every contrary opinion over the head with the bat of stats is beyond me.

This is a discussion of your own choosing. It would not exist had you not responded in the following fashion:

"I like Adam - he's a statistician's dream. But there are times - like now - when it seems that there are those who feel the need to prop him up at every turn, lest Adam not be worshipped for the demi-god that he has become."

I'm not sure why you felt that was necessary. The initial post in this thread asked who we felt was the Reds' MVP for April. Over the course of a calendar month, I equate MVP with who was most productive for the team. That's it. No "worshipping". No "demi-god" status. Nada. A simple post explaining who was the most productive player in April for the Reds.

Before continuing with this discussion, you need to ask yourself a simple question:

If Adam Dunn weren't the most productive Reds player in April, do you honestly think I'd vote for him knowing how many other players had an excellent month?

Seriously, knowing my slant in utilizing objective performance data coupled with the skill of others around these parts in sniffing out BS, do you really think I can create some bias-propelled snowjob argument that would falsely prop up Adam Dunn as the most productive player on the team regardless of his actual performance? If so, then you're vastly overestimating my skill level. The stuff I'm looking at is obvious. I'm unable to "twist" it. I can't possibly hide somone else's productivity because it's readily available to anyone who cares to look.

You don't equate "most productive" with "MVP"? Fine. I don't have a problem with you using more subjective criteria, whatever it is. In fact, I don't have an issue with any one of the 96 posters who voted for Bronson Arroyo regardless of their reasoning. Do I think they're wrong? Yep. But it's a freakin' month so who cares?

That being said, your initial post was nothing more than a rhetoric-laden attack and it was treated as such. My sin was to point out that Adam Dunn was more productive than any other Reds player in April. If someone posted such and was wrong, then you might have reason to question their motivation. But that wasn't the case so your suggestion that my selection was based on bias was misplaced. And your current inference that I've been doing nothing but lying with numbers is beyond misplaced.

harangatang
05-02-2006, 12:18 AM
SteelSD -

Like many here, I grew up spending hours scrutinizing every detail of just about every box score I could get my hands on. Sunday came and I could spend half the day looking through the league leaders. Of course, this was mostly during the Big Red Machine days, so they were pretty easy to look at.

Spent a lot of time playing most baseball simulations and continuing to feed the stat Jones. Loved the stuff. Couldn't get enough.

But, what I've seen from many over the past couple of years has soured the milk a bit. Stats can certainly be used to prop up an argument and make the poster look like a genius and the guy you are responding too like a buffoon. Of course, it can go both ways, ad nauseum. Why you feel the need to beat every contrary opinion over the head with the bat of stats is beyond me.

Love Adam Dunn. Can't believe what an extraordinary ballplayer he is and can't wait to see what he becomes in the next few years. Hope he retires a Red. He had a great month and deserves some recognition.

Kudos.

But, the original post was who people considered the MVP for April. Arroyo had an outstanding and, mostly, unexpected month. He deserves the recognition. At this point, nearly 63% of others feel the same.

Nobody's slamming Adam, least of all me. But, when I sent in my original post, I was expecting such a response. It just doesn't have to be about stats and/or the defense of Adam Dunn all channels, all the time.
I agree 110%, I think Adam Dunn is an awesome player. I think what's bad is the fact is that there is no explanation of anything and the post earlier on about the meanings of the SABR acronyms is quite comical. How can you argue against a statistic when you don't know what it stands for, let alone what the statistic means or how it can be useful. I always keep an open mind to learning new things and maybe what Steel is saying is useful but for all I know it could be irrelevant. Then most typically as in the past (not this thread surprisingly) follows the cliches of something related to feces or something degrading.

The section on Sabermetrics in the FAQ has been taken down and I guess we'll have to all go buy a Bill James book just to figure out if what Steel is saying is correct. But you know what I say who cares and I'll enjoy this season of baseball watching the Reds in the way I know "best".

paintmered
05-02-2006, 12:18 AM
Edwin has the highest VLOOP in the major leagues. He gets my vote.

Can you explain what VLOOP is? I'm not exactly privy to that stat.

The Baumer
05-02-2006, 12:24 AM
VLOOP is a very complicated stat I invented whose sole purpose is to give Edwin Encarnacion the league lead in VLOOP..

kxblue
05-02-2006, 12:35 AM
I'll admit I am a casual fan (college basketball is my sport), but I have a question about stats.

Why are Arroyo's
DIPS: 3.86
BABIP: .213
important? Shouldn't his ERA (which is 2.06 after today's start), wins, and possibly WHIP be his sole measures of productivity as they are the only stats which really affect the outcome? After all, even if he is "lucky", why should his luck be counted against him?

Im not a big stat guy, so any explanation would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

BTW, I voted for Phillips simply due to his unexpected production.

SteelSD
05-02-2006, 12:39 AM
I agree 110%, I think Adam Dunn is an awesome player. I think what's bad is the fact is that there is no explanation of anything and the post earlier on about the meanings of the SABR acronyms is quite comical. How can you argue against a statistic when you don't know what it stands for, let alone what the statistic means or how it can be useful. I always keep an open mind to learning new things and maybe what Steel is saying is useful but for all I know it could be irrelevant. Then most typically as in the past (not this thread surprisingly) follows the cliches of something related to feces or something degrading.

The section on Sabermetrics in the FAQ has been taken down and I guess we'll have to all go buy a Bill James book just to figure out if what Steel is saying is correct. But you know what I say who cares and I'll enjoy this season of baseball watching the Reds in the way I know "best".

Quick question: Why is it my responsibility to educate others as to the relevance of performance metrics?

Second quick question: How do you think I learned the stuff?

Third quick question: Do I own a Bill James book?

Fourth quick question: Why have I always liked Wily Mo Pena and Felipe Lopez?

Fifth quick question: If you PM me as to what the numbers mean, do you think I'm going to help you?

The correct answers may surprise.

paintmered
05-02-2006, 12:50 AM
Quick question: Why is it my responsibility to educate others as to the relevance of performance metrics?

Second quick question: How do you think I learned the stuff?

Third quick question: Do I own a Bill James book?

Fourth quick question: Why have I always liked Wily Mo Pena and Felipe Lopez?

Fifth quick question: If you PM me as to what the numbers mean, do you think I'm going to help you?

The correct answers may surprise.

Would you be interested in writing a stats 101 type column/post? I think most Redszoners would like to learn about statistical anaylsis if given the chance to do so. In my experience, I've been reading your posts for over four years now and I still trying to catch up to your level on this subject.

SteelSD
05-02-2006, 01:18 AM
I'll admit I am a casual fan (college basketball is my sport), but I have a question about stats.

Why are Arroyo's
DIPS: 3.86
BABIP: .213
important? Shouldn't his ERA (which is 2.06 after today's start), wins, and possibly WHIP be his sole measures of productivity as they are the only stats which really affect the outcome? After all, even if he is "lucky", why should his luck be counted against him?

Im not a big stat guy, so any explanation would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

Here you go...

Pitchers, above all other players, depend on other players to produce things like Wins, ERA, WHIP, etc. In short, DIPS ERA is an isolation of only that which a pitcher can control regardless of his defense. It's an individual representation of how well a pitcher performed just like Runs Created is an individual representation of how well a hitter performed without regard to other players in the lineup.

If a pitcher has a much lower ERA than he does DIPS, then we can reasonably assume that the pitcher is either the beneficiary of a good deal of luck (BABIP randomness) or a good deal of fielder skill. If a pitcher has a higher ERA than DIPS ERA we can reasonably assume that said pitcher has been unlucky.

In 2005, the Cardinals (1.21 DIPS Rate) and the Astros (1.12 DIPS Rate) finished second and first in the NL respectively in Defensive Efficiency. DIPS rate is DIPS/ERA. Basically, you'll find that the better defensive teams will produce ERA numbers lower than they should given their collection of pitchers. There are exceptions, of course, but I haven't seen anything yet that would lead me to move DIPS to a lower rung on the individual contribution totem pole.

Wins? Not represenational of individual player skill. WHIP? The Hits portion of WHIP relies on BABIP randomness or defensive skill. ERA can vary wildly based on a number of factors (including bullpen quality and usage). None are as accurate in guaging a pitcher's actual performance as DIPS.

I'm not saying that DIPS or DIPS rate are the end-all-be-all in evaluating a pitcher's performance. But if we're talking about individual contribution, I'm going to look at that first because it tells us more about individual pitcher contribution than any other number.

registerthis
05-02-2006, 01:24 AM
I maintain that Arroyo's addition to this club, and what he has done--including the CG shutout of the Cards tonight--makes him the most valuable Red thus far in the season. Dunn's stats are impressive, I simply think Arroyo's talents mean more to this club right now.

Caveat Emperor
05-02-2006, 01:25 AM
Quick question: Why is it my responsibility to educate others as to the relevance of performance metrics?

Second quick question: How do you think I learned the stuff?

Third quick question: Do I own a Bill James book?

Fourth quick question: Why have I always liked Wily Mo Pena and Felipe Lopez?

Fifth quick question: If you PM me as to what the numbers mean, do you think I'm going to help you?

The correct answers may surprise.

1. Because ignorance kills baby kittens, and you don't seem like the kind of person that hates kittens.

2. By placing a Bill James book under your pillow and employing learning-via-osmosis. Also through repeated viewings of Tom Emanski's "Teaching the Mechanics of the Big League Swing."

3. Yes. It was given to you by the Lady of the Lake with the charge that you use it to claim your rightful place as King of RedsZone with your 10 Knights of the Diamond Table.

4. Wily Mo Pena you feel a special kinship for after besting him in a 2 out of 3 Yahtzee tournament. The two of you got to talking and realized you had a lot more in common than anyone could've imagined. Felipe, I don't know -- I'm sure there's a story behind it.

5. Sure you will. In fact, you'll have a binder full of research on his desk by tomorrow morning. We'd expect nothing less from our RedsZone MVP. If you can't hack it, we'll just promote someone else.

Plus if you do, we'll give you a promotion. You'll have as many as 4 people under you. This is a big opportunity Steel.

:thumbup:

SteelSD
05-02-2006, 01:44 AM
Would you be interested in writing a stats 101 type column/post? I think most Redszoners would like to learn about statistical anaylsis if given the chance to do so. In my experience, I've been reading your posts for over four years now and I still trying to catch up to your level on this subject.

I could, paint, but at this point I'm not exactly sure what the payoff would be for the reader. I guess from where I sit the folks who want to learn about stuff ask about it, have full access to formulas via readily accessible web sites, or want to do their own work so they're sure of the accuracy. That leaves me either covering very simple stuff like OPS, posting primer addresses that anyone can find using a Google search, or giving instructions on how to run correlation checks.

At this point, I might suggest that we're beyond the stats 101 subject and have moved into a stats 201. My question would be how many folks are actually looking to move past things like OPS, WHIP, ERA, etc. If there are enough, I certainly wouldn't recommend that I be the only contributor as we've got other folks with at least as good an understanding of advanced metrics as I (although I appreciate the compliment).

Post a poll. Might be good to guage interest first.

SteelSD
05-02-2006, 02:04 AM
1. Because ignorance kills baby kittens, and you don't seem like the kind of person that hates kittens.

Correct. I like baby kittens. I'm upset because every time someone mentions ERA, Wins, Batting Average, or RBI, God kills a kitten. That's not right.


2. By placing a Bill James book under your pillow and employing learning-via-osmosis. Also through repeated viewings of Tom Emanski's "Teaching the Mechanics of the Big League Swing."

If you ever mention Tom Emanski again, I will not be your friend.


3. Yes. It was given to you by the Lady of the Lake with the charge that you use it to claim your rightful place as King of RedsZone with your 10 Knights of the Diamond Table.

Wrong. I've never owned a Bill James book and he pretty much ticks me off regularly. His most recent public declaration which whittled down to "Well we don't really know..." is one of the most cowardly things ever written. By anyone. Ever.

James' legacy of Runs Created will go down in history as one of the primary accomplishments in statistical analysis. It's his pinnacle. But Voros McCraken is more talented than is James. So is Paul DePodesta and more than one or two guys currently writing articles on the internet. Bill James was a huge link in a long chain. He may have been the impetus for many, but he hasn't produced anything relevant publicly for a long long time. Folks working on Linear Weights are doing more to further analysis than James has in quite some time.


4. Wily Mo Pena you feel a special kinship for after besting him in a 2 out of 3 Yahtzee tournament. The two of you got to talking and realized you had a lot more in common than anyone could've imagined. Felipe, I don't know -- I'm sure there's a story behind it.

Nah. Basically I just wanted to confound Redszone by being the "stats guy" who held exceptional "tools" players in high regard. I'm still probably the only guy here who thinks that Felipe Lopez, given time, will become an above-averge fielding Shorstop.


5. Sure you will. In fact, you'll have a binder full of research on his desk by tomorrow morning. We'd expect nothing less from our RedsZone MVP. If you can't hack it, we'll just promote someone else.

Correct. Except the word "binder' like "Tom Emanski" is a huge no-no. Consider yourself on my watch list!


Plus if you do, we'll give you a promotion. You'll have as many as 4 people under you. This is a big opportunity Steel.

Dude, as long as I don't have to work weekends, I'll be happy. So make that happen. ;)

dougdirt
05-02-2006, 02:06 AM
Quick Question, arent all kittens babies?

Otherwise would they not be cats?

KronoRed
05-02-2006, 02:08 AM
Quick Question, arent all kittens babies?

Otherwise would they not be cats?
Yes, they would be cats.

SteelSD
05-02-2006, 02:37 AM
Quick Question, arent all kittens babies?

Otherwise would they not be cats?

Baby kitten:

http://www.kittenbaby.com/images/kittenphotos/red-kitten-bottle.jpg


Kitten:

http://kittens.sytes.org/kitten-93.jpg

KronoRed
05-02-2006, 02:40 AM
Awwww :)

Jpup
05-03-2006, 07:00 AM
apparently, it's Arroyo for April.

my fearless prediction for May is Felipe Lopez. :thumbup: