PDA

View Full Version : How Long Do You Keep The Man Down?



Krusty
05-01-2006, 09:08 AM
Chris Denorfia is tearing up Triple A pitching with a .350+ batting average. He was impressive in spring training and won praise from GM Wayne Krivsky. Yet with the addition of Brandon Phillips, playing time is hard to get despite Ryan Freel playing centerfield. And with Junior soon to come back, you can pretty much expect Denorfia not to be called up anytime soon.

So isn't it about time for the club to realize they can win without Junior and be better off with Freel and Denorfia in centerfield defensively? And don't be surprise by the starting rotation. Eric Milton and Dave Williams are who they are. Paul Wilson is on the comeback but his performances doesn't really excite me. Right now you have a rotation of Arroyo, Claussen, Harang and Ramirez. This team could use another starter.

But to keep Denorfia down at Louisville with nothing to prove is wasting the talents of a young ballplayer.

BuckU
05-01-2006, 10:13 AM
I think messing with the current chemistry/personnel right now would be bad. Since the Phillips acquisition everybody has taken well to their roles.

As well as Denorfia is playing, there is no spot for him. Whatever the Reds have been doing, it's working. Don't mess with it.

Chip R
05-01-2006, 10:20 AM
You going to bring him up just to sit him on the bench?

Danny Serafini
05-01-2006, 10:32 AM
If anything I think keeping Denorfia down is a sign of the Reds starting to return to respectability. This is a normal situation for a good team, they've got good players who have to stay in the minors because they've already got a roster full of decent players. We're just not used to seeing that because the rosters have been filled out with junk the past few years. There really isn't a lot of filler (out of the position players) on the Reds roster right now.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 11:05 AM
I hope Krivsky is workign the phones overtime to see if there are any AL teams who might have an interest in a star DH with power but no legs? Maybe the orioles--Angelos seems to have a thing for aging superstars, with Junior he might finally get one that actually produces.

membengal
05-01-2006, 11:13 AM
Might not the Angels have an interest?

max venable
05-01-2006, 11:16 AM
I think messing with the current chemistry/personnel right now would be bad. Since the Phillips acquisition everybody has taken well to their roles.

As well as Denorfia is playing, there is no spot for him. Whatever the Reds have been doing, it's working. Don't mess with it.

Does this mean that we shouldn't pursue another starting pitcher because it would mean "messing with the current chemistry?"

Kriv has been "messing with the chemistry" ever since he got here. THAT'S what seems to be working, IMO.

smith288
05-01-2006, 11:31 AM
I hope Krivsky is workign the phones overtime to see if there are any AL teams who might have an interest in a star DH with power but no legs? Maybe the orioles--Angelos seems to have a thing for aging superstars, with Junior he might finally get one that actually produces.
Again... Griffey would need to approve of any move and I doubt he would unless its to a definate World Series contender. The Orioles are the antithesis of that even though they are only 1.5 back... they still suck.

Chip R
05-01-2006, 11:38 AM
Again... Griffey would need to approve of any move and I doubt he would unless its to a definate World Series contender. The Orioles are the antithesis of that even though they are only 1.5 back... they still suck.

And someone would have to want him. He's no good to anyone now since he isn't currently healthy. For those teams even entertaining a thought about trading for Jr. this latest injury - no matter how much everyone is soft-pedaling it - has to give them pause. They see the guy hurt himself shagging flies and aggravating it batting. Even if he is just used as a DH, several of his injuries have come from running the bases. Even DHs have to run the bases.

smith288
05-01-2006, 11:42 AM
Griffey as trade bait is pretty much dead in my mind. Love him but he aint a healthy cat anymore.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 12:49 PM
Again... Griffey would need to approve of any move and I doubt he would unless its to a definate World Series contender. The Orioles are the antithesis of that even though they are only 1.5 back... they still suck.

I'm well aware of Griffey's contract situation--it's not as if every time someone floats the idea that Junior would be better off going to an AL team they aren't also aware that he has 10-5 rights.

It doesn't mean Krivsky shouldn't be trying to trade him. Krivsky can only work out a deal, its up to Junior whether or not to approve it.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 12:51 PM
Griffey as trade bait is pretty much dead in my mind. Love him but he aint a healthy cat anymore.

35 HR, 92 RBI and a .370 OBP last year says otherwise.

Griffey's essentially done as a position player. But there are more than a handful of AL teams who would no doubt be happy to add that kind of power to their team in a DH role, where Junior could still be very successful.

kaldaniels
05-01-2006, 01:18 PM
35 HR, 92 RBI and a .370 OBP last year says otherwise.

Griffey's essentially done as a position player. But there are more than a handful of AL teams who would no doubt be happy to add that kind of power to their team in a DH role, where Junior could still be very successful.

C'mon. Griffey is about as big a trade risk as anything based on his 5-yr history. Sadly anyone looking at him objectively sees last year as an abomination (sp?) of his recent injury plauged years. We couldn't give him away. That is a fact.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 01:21 PM
C'mon. Griffey is about as big a trade risk as anything based on his 5-yr history. Sadly anyone looking at him objectively sees last year as an abomination (sp?) of his recent injury plauged years. We couldn't give him away. That is a fact.

First of all, the word you're looking for is "aberration".

Second of all, we had a trade worked out to send him to the White Sox last year that got nixed by ownership. So not being able to give him away is not "a fact"--it's completely wrong. The "fact" is that his offensive capabilities mean he is still a tradeable commodity. The differing value is what we can expect in return, but at this point I'd be happy with a pair of prospects--one legit, one not so--to get him off the field.

kaldaniels
05-01-2006, 01:23 PM
First of all, the word you're looking for is "aberration".

Second of all, we had a trade worked out to send him to the White Sox last year that got nixed by ownership. So not being able to give him away is not "a fact"--it's completely wrong. The "fact" is that his offensive capabilities mean he is still a tradeable commodity. The differing value is what we can expect in return, but at this point I'd be happy with a pair of prospects--one legit, one not so--to get him off the field.

We could not give him away today. Period. We would have to take our medicine and swallow some contract dollars. Fact. A Slam-Dunk Fact.

REDREAD
05-01-2006, 01:24 PM
Isn't Jr only under contract through the end of 2007? IMO, the Reds aren't going to get a whole lot for him (if they found a willing partner), and getting the payflex from shedding his contract one year earlier isn't going to make that much of a difference. (I'm assuming that if Jr was traded tommorrow, Wayne wouldn't be able to start a spending spree, but I could be wrong.. I'm assuming the money wouldn't be available until the offseason).

Might as well keep Jr and let him retire as a Red. It would be one thing if Defornia was the next Eric Davis, but he's really not anything special.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 01:24 PM
We could not give him away today. Period. We would have to take our medicine and swallow some contract dollars. Fact. A Slam-Dunk Fact.

What is your proof of this "slam dunk fact"? Your own personal opinion on the subject?

registerthis
05-01-2006, 01:25 PM
Isn't Jr only under contract through the end of 2007?

No, it's 2009.

kaldaniels
05-01-2006, 01:28 PM
What is your proof of this "slam dunk fact"? Your own personal opinion on the subject?

Its a fact. Peace out.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 01:29 PM
Its a fact. Peace out.

Oh, OK then.

Anything else I should know about the team that isn't readily apparent to us mere mortals?

joeberk
05-01-2006, 01:32 PM
I think Griffey will play out his contract and hang it up. Maybe he'd move in July of 2009 to get a ring, but that's about it.

IMO Denorfia is the intended replacement if/when another outfielder (gut: Kearns) gets traded for pitching.

kaldaniels
05-01-2006, 01:34 PM
Oh, OK then.

Anything else I should know about the team that isn't readily apparent to us mere mortals?

You should know that the Reds trade to the Sox consisted of this.

From USA Today:


The White Sox, whose deal for Ken Griffey Jr. (for three minor league prospects) was killed by Reds owner Carl Lindner last weekend, would revisit their trade talks if Griffey clears waivers in August.
Reds would have received Casey Rogowski, Chris Young, and a fringe prospect, and would have only been on the hook for $4 million a year for the next three years of Griffey's salary, which would be a per year savings of $8.5 million.

But the Reds owner killed the deal.

That would cost the Reds $12 million for basically sending Griffey to the Sox. Even last year when he was in the middle of a Comeback Player of the year season, no one would just come along and take his contract.

Are you saying that if we set Griffey and his again injured knee on the trading block and said "he is yours for nothing if you take his contract" someone would take him??? If so you are drinking some strong Kool-Aid.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 01:35 PM
I think Griffey will play out his contract and hang it up. Maybe he'd move in July of 2009 to get a ring, but that's about it.

He won't play out his contract in the outfield, that's for sure. I doubt he has enough left to play there this year, not to mention 3 years beyond this one.
The only way he MIGHT make it with the Reds through 2009 is by switching to first, and even that is no guarantee. More likely, he's either traded, or he retires within the next year or two. No way, no how is Junior playing in the OF for the Reds in 2009.

Sabo Fan
05-01-2006, 01:38 PM
Griffey has little to no trade value right now, the Reds would have to wait until after this season, assuming he has a decent year, to get anything of value for him.

As for Denorfia's situation, I think he's the guy who has some nice value and you look to move him. Package him with LaRue (which clears a little bit of payroll as well) and a prospect and see what kind of starter that will fetch you. I like Denorfia, but I think his biggest contribution to this team right now needs to be as trade bait.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 01:40 PM
You should know that the Reds trade to the Sox consisted of this.

Are you saying that if we set Griffey and his again injured knee on the trading block and said "he is yours for nothing if you take his contract" someone would take him??? If so you are drinking some strong Kool-Aid.

I remember the trade proposal well, Kal. There's nothing in the USA piece that hasn't been rehashed on this board a million times.

I never said we wouldn't have to eat some of his contract, it's likely that we will. But that's an inconsequential component of any deal for Junior, as far as I'm concerned. I've consistently maintained that Junior should be dealt, and that there's a trade market for him. his offensive numbers from last year indicate that. Would the Reds have to kick in some salary? Most certainly; and I've never said otherwise.

So, the point remains: Junior should be dealt to an AL team to serve as the DH. beyond that, you can make up any facts that you like.

deltachi8
05-01-2006, 01:40 PM
Its a fact. Peace out.

In God we trust...all others must bring data.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 01:43 PM
Griffey has little to no trade value right now, the Reds would have to wait until after this season, assuming he has a decent year, to get anything of value for him.

See, I disagree with that. Griffey needs to come back and hit a few HRs first, sure, but assuming he can do that much the perfect time to trade him is at the trade deadline, when teams are scrambling for the pieces that will put them over the edge. You don't want to give teams an entire offseason to ponder a Junior acquisition, give them a couple of days. Dangle his offensive production numbers in front of them, entice them witht he possibility of mitigating his injury risk by playing him as strictly a DH, and see who bites. GMs make some crazy moves when they're battling for playoff position. That's when the market for Junior's services will be their highest.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 01:46 PM
In God we trust...all others must bring data.

I think, therefore it is.

Sabo Fan
05-01-2006, 01:54 PM
See, I disagree with that. Griffey needs to come back and hit a few HRs first, sure, but assuming he can do that much the perfect time to trade him is at the trade deadline, when teams are scrambling for the pieces that will put them over the edge. You don't want to give teams an entire offseason to ponder a Junior acquisition, give them a couple of days. Dangle his offensive production numbers in front of them, entice them witht he possibility of mitigating his injury risk by playing him as strictly a DH, and see who bites. GMs make some crazy moves when they're battling for playoff position. That's when the market for Junior's services will be their highest.

You may be right, afterall, there is a sucker born every minute. Unfortunately there aren't a lot of sucker GMs out there. At this point, I think for Junior to have any value at all he needs to demonstrate that he can go at least half a season without injury before anyone would want him. With the exception of last year he hasn't been able to do that since his first year here.

My thinking that if he could remain healthy the rest of this year and put up some Junior-like numbers then you could get a decent return come the offseason. Maybe a hot couple months would revitalize his value, but I think at this point teams are so afraid he'll break down again that you can never expect to get much of anything for him. Last year would have netted a nice return, but unfortunately Kenny Williams won't make that mistake twice and I doubt anyone else will either.

I think Junior is here for as long as he wants to play, and I would guess that if he has another injury-plagued year this year that it will be his last.

BuckU
05-01-2006, 02:39 PM
Does this mean that we shouldn't pursue another starting pitcher because it would mean "messing with the current chemistry?"

Kriv has been "messing with the chemistry" ever since he got here. THAT'S what seems to be working, IMO.

I guess that I was under the impression that there is a universal consensus that you can never have enough pitching…

My point was, if you bring Denorfia up, you have to play him. He needs to be playing everyday. Who sits? With everybody getting pretty acclimated to their roles it just doesn’t make sense to rock the boat.

After Jr comes back he would be a 5th outfielder at best. No need to tinker while the team is on a successful streak.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
05-01-2006, 02:58 PM
First of all, the word you're looking for is "aberration".

Second of all, we had a trade worked out to send him to the White Sox last year that got nixed by ownership. So not being able to give him away is not "a fact"--it's completely wrong. The "fact" is that his offensive capabilities mean he is still a tradeable commodity. The differing value is what we can expect in return, but at this point I'd be happy with a pair of prospects--one legit, one not so--to get him off the field.
off the field, come on. You cant tell me that we are not a better team with Griffey in the line up. Cant you all just let him be, he wants to be here which is rare these days, but since we are winning games right now and hes not playing we want to trade him away. I would move griffey to first base before i ever considered trading him. I want to see him retire in a reds uniform no matter how sooner or later that is. I like to think if it were not for injuries that the man chasing the all time home run record would have been a Red and he would have done it the right way.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 03:13 PM
off the field, come on. You cant tell me that we are not a better team with Griffey in the line up.

In the lineup? Sure. On the field? No, we're not. We're a far, far better team with Freel in CF than we are with Junior.


Cant you all just let him be, he wants to be here which is rare these days, but since we are winning games right now and hes not playing we want to trade him away.

No, I'd want to trade him regardless of what we were doing, and regardless of whether he was in the lineup or not. As nice of a story as Griffey wanting to be here is, the Reds have a team to field and a level of competitiveness they need to reach. It is very difficult for them to do that whilst having a $12 mil/year OFer with gimpy legs and an awful injury history.


I would move griffey to first base before i ever considered trading him. I want to see him retire in a reds uniform no matter how sooner or later that is. I like to think if it were not for injuries that the man chasing the all time home run record would have been a Red and he would have done it the right way.

Sure, and if it weren't for a lack of skills I'd be playing MLB rather than watching it.

I'd move Junior to first regardless of the situation, but even if we do move him there, we should still be pursuing a trade. The "can Junior stay healthy" train left the station a long time ago, now it's simply a need to mitigate damages.

Handofdeath
05-01-2006, 03:32 PM
35 HR, 92 RBI and a .370 OBP last year says otherwise.


Griffey had pretty good numbers last year but he played in only 128 games. He was not healthy for a full season...again.

traderumor
05-01-2006, 03:50 PM
The way Freel has been playing CF, the defense is going to suffer again if they simply put Jr. back out there when he comes back. He has been taking away gap shots that Jr. would be picking up off the warning track. The most logical move at this point is to move Griffey to LF, Dunn to 1b, Freel and Denorfia in CF, goodbye McCracken and a reliever such as Rick White. The offense is improved, the defense is improved and the bullpen is improved. The bench is also improved with Aurilia and Hatteberg at the ready. Of course, this has been obvious around these parts for months, time for Krivsky to kill Jr. softly with his song.

KronoRed
05-01-2006, 04:04 PM
You going to bring him up just to sit him on the bench?
Yes.

I'll take a good bench guy, he'll get at bats..he has no growing left to do in AAA.

BuckU
05-01-2006, 04:28 PM
Yes.

I'll take a good bench guy, he'll get at bats..he has no growing left to do in AAA.

I disagree. How is 5 at bats a week better than 5 at bats a night in any scenario?

red-in-la
05-01-2006, 04:43 PM
No, it's 2009.

I believe the club has to exercise an option to keep him THROUGH 2009. Either way, JR is still owe some serious coin.

In a way, I agree that he is currently pretty tough to move, unless you are paying him to play for somebody else.....besides, there is a clear way to keep the offense intact AND play JR everyday, and that is to move Dunn to 1B where he played abunch of games last year and put JR in LF.

Instead of worrying about health or contracts or trade value, you only have to have a real manager who can go and talk to the players and make them see how that makes a MUCH better team.

The question of the year is......is Narron a real manager?

KronoRed
05-01-2006, 04:46 PM
I disagree. How is 5 at bats a week better than 5 at bats a night in any scenario?
Soaking up the MLB experience and all that.

I just think he's going to start to get bored down in AAA, might hurt his game

IMO

BuckU
05-01-2006, 05:05 PM
Soaking up the MLB experience and all that.

I just think he's going to start to get bored down in AAA, might hurt his game

IMO

I thought that's what spring training was for, to get the big leauge experience.

Let him tear it up in AAA. It gets people talking about him and raises his potential trade value.

registerthis
05-01-2006, 05:54 PM
I believe the club has to exercise an option to keep him THROUGH 2009. Either way, JR is still owe some serious coin.

he's signed through 2008, with a club option for 2009;

Ken Griffey Jr. of
9 years/$116.5M (2000-08), plus $16.5M 2009 club option

00-08:$12.5M/year, 09:$16.5M club option ($4M buyout)
$57.5M in salary deferred at 4% interest, to be paid 2009-2024, reducing contract's present-day value at time of signing to between $9.2M and $9.3M annually, according to Reds management sources
$5.5M of 2000 salary deferred
$6.5M/year of 2001-2008 salaries deferred
agent: Brian Goldberg
ML service: 17.000

registerthis
05-01-2006, 05:56 PM
I thought that's what spring training was for, to get the big leauge experience.

Let him tear it up in AAA. It gets people talking about him and raises his potential trade value.

I have to agree with this. Either the guy is going to play regularly, or you try to flip him for someone who will, neither of which will be accomplished by bringing him up to the big league club to pinch hit a few times a week and get the occasional spot start. He may have nothing left to prove in AAA, but he won't prove anything by riding the pine in Cincinnati.

KronoRed
05-01-2006, 05:57 PM
he's signed through 2008, with a club option for 2009;

Ken Griffey Jr. of
9 years/$116.5M (2000-08), plus $16.5M 2009 club option

00-08:$12.5M/year, 09:$16.5M club option ($4M buyout)
$57.5M in salary deferred at 4% interest, to be paid 2009-2024, reducing contract's present-day value at time of signing to between $9.2M and $9.3M annually, according to Reds management sources
$5.5M of 2000 salary deferred
$6.5M/year of 2001-2008 salaries deferred
agent: Brian Goldberg
ML service: 17.000
If I'm not mistaken the Reds have been putting the deferred part away since the start of the deal, so in 09 after the buy out JR will be completely paid for.

So..what was the point of the differed cash? ;)

griffeyfreak4
05-01-2006, 06:48 PM
See, I disagree with that. Griffey needs to come back and hit a few HRs first, sure, but assuming he can do that much the perfect time to trade him is at the trade deadline, when teams are scrambling for the pieces that will put them over the edge. You don't want to give teams an entire offseason to ponder a Junior acquisition, give them a couple of days. Dangle his offensive production numbers in front of them, entice them with the possibility of mitigating his injury risk by playing him as strictly a DH, and see who bites. GMs make some crazy moves when they're battling for playoff position. That's when the market for Junior's services will be their highest.


I don't understand this. If Griffey comes back, and he produces like Griffey can, then why would we trade him? When Griffey is producing, it will allow other guys to have opportunities to produce, and this team will be much better.

With a Griffey that's producing, and a Griffey-Dunn 1, 2 punch, then it will allow both stars to produce super-star stats, and help this team tremendously, so why trade him?

KronoRed
05-01-2006, 06:51 PM
/\
Because he can't stay healthy and we have guys (Deno, Freel) who could slide in and do an adequate job.

If that money can be off the payroll then it should be done, the Reds don't have the market to pay that much for a PT player.

redsmetz
05-01-2006, 06:51 PM
I don't understand this. If Griffey comes back, and he produces like Griffey can, then why would we trade him? When Griffey is producing, it will allow other guys to have opportunities to produce, and this team will be much better.

With a Griffey that's producing, and a Griffey-Dunn 1, 2 punch, then it will allow both stars to produce super-star stats, and help this team tremendously, so why trade him?

This is something I wonder. Does Griffey give Dunn excellent cover, forcing teams to pitch to Dunn? I think that might be a possibility, but perhaps there are some statistics that show otherwise. As for the outfield, I will concede that Griffey doesn't cover what he used to cover, but I think what we lose, we gain from his bat, whether through his own production or better production from Dunn - IMO.

MartyFan
05-01-2006, 07:43 PM
If we can trade Junior for a QUALITY arm + a minor leaguer I would do it and gladly pick up some of his salary and bring Denorfia up...the thing about "chemistry" is garbage...the chemistry is good because the team is winning whereas last year the chemistry was good because everybody was in love with one another and the team didn't perform.

GAC
05-01-2006, 10:15 PM
You going to bring him up just to sit him on the bench?

Exactly. No room for him.

Use him as trade bait.... dangle him to help improve this pitching even more.

Denorfia's are a dime a dozen IMO.

KronoRed
05-01-2006, 10:18 PM
If we can trade Junior for a QUALITY arm + a minor leaguer I would do it and gladly pick up some of his salary and bring Denorfia up...the thing about "chemistry" is garbage...the chemistry is good because the team is winning whereas last year the chemistry was good because everybody was in love with one another and the team didn't perform.
:clap:

The Reds will find plenty of takers if they agree to pick up 90% of his deal, then they can go younger and better defensively.

BuckU
05-02-2006, 10:16 AM
Denorfia's are a dime a dozen IMO.

I agree with this. In 2 years we are going to have the same problem with Jay Bruce and B.J. (not to the same extent) anyway.

KronoRed
05-02-2006, 04:16 PM
Gonna be more then 2 years on Bruce..I say closer to 4.