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Wheelhouse
05-01-2006, 10:50 PM
So word around (Bob Brenly and other analysts) is that Arroyo's success is because the NL hasn't seen him--just wait they say, and Arroyo will come back to career norms. My response to that is:
1) Arroyo is not a fastballer who hitters need to get their timing on, or a junk pitcher who hitters need to get their timing on- he throws a fastball at three arm angles, he throws a nasty curve at three arm angles, and a changeup. He has basically seven pitches. And he uses them smartly and is able to change tactics and adjust mid-game. He's a smart pitcher with a lot of variety in his arsenal. No matter how many times you see him.
2) I don't think at 29 you have met the final definition of who you are as a pitcher. At 32 you have, but I still think there's some upcurve left in Arroyo's talent being realized.

The Red Sox must be kicking themselves.

membengal
05-01-2006, 10:53 PM
Well, it could also be said in response that Cubs and Cards have each seen him twice now, and he was better in the second starts against each of those clubs than the first...

Matt700wlw
05-01-2006, 10:55 PM
Pitchers adjust too...at this point, it looks like Bronson's adjustments are better than the oppositions adjustments.

Nugget
05-01-2006, 10:56 PM
In case Bob has been reading from the same factbook as Hal, Arroyo was originally an NL pitcher. Although he may have refined himself in the three years in Boston he came up through the NL and debuted with Pittsburgh so I don't see how that can really hold water. What about Mulder et al are they going to say they pitched well last year because the NL hasn't seen them.

Wheelhouse
05-01-2006, 10:57 PM
Very good point.

CrackerJack
05-01-2006, 10:57 PM
Well I don't expect him to pitch 1 run complete games every time out.

Something like an NL adjusted career norm would actually be just fine with this team. If he has a big year then all the better. If not, he should still win games and provide rotation stability all year long.

BoCcc2832
05-01-2006, 10:58 PM
Don't forget he has that wicked breaking ball strike out pitch. In my opinion, that's his bread and butter pitch

minus5
05-01-2006, 10:59 PM
Man, he just looked sharper each time through the lineup tonight. I've had a big goofy grin during each game he's pitched. :D

Fullboat
05-01-2006, 11:00 PM
Pitchers adjust too...at this point, it looks like Bronson's adjustments are better than the oppositions adjustments.

Bingo! J. Encarnacion hit a homer and after that zippo.

traderumor
05-01-2006, 11:53 PM
Brenly's analysis is typical, but with interleague play this isn't quite as big a factor as it once was. But don't let that stop someone from making a lazy prediction. More exposure to a pitcher will likely help the hitting team, but some of what he is doing is just a marvelous mixing of speeds, pitch types and locations.

Sea Ray
05-02-2006, 12:18 AM
These guys need to actually watch him pitch. He hits his spots, changes speeds, has good movement and throws 91 MPH when he needs to. How is that not a recipe for success in this league? It's not luck that he's 5-0. He has really pitched well.

Superdude
05-02-2006, 12:18 AM
That actually is a possibility though. Arroyo was great in his first go 'round in the AL, but was more hittable in his second year with the Sox. You normally don't see that big of a drop off in K rate after one season. He seems to be back on his game after switching leagues and seeing some new hitters, but maybe it is just his tricky style that's catching everyone off guard right now? It'll be interesting to see how he performs next year and if the pattern continues. (Hopefully he's just a better pitcher than he was a year ago and is on his way to a Cy Young :thumbup: )

pedro
05-02-2006, 12:23 AM
I expect Arroyo's ERA to be around 4 this year.

Sea Ray
05-02-2006, 12:26 AM
I expect Arroyo's ERA to be around 4 this year.

Any starter on this team with an ERA of 4 will be a winner, especially if it includes a lot of innings. This staff has not enjoyed a lot of 4.00 ERA starters in recent years.

smith288
05-02-2006, 12:52 AM
I heard them basically say that the NL is a wuss league in terms of hitters so Arroyo is just mowing down the pathetic NL. I think Arroyo is a good pitcher but what do i know?

Rounding Third
05-02-2006, 12:55 AM
I heard them basically say that the NL is a wuss league in terms of hitters so Arroyo is just mowing down the pathetic NL. I think Arroyo is a good pitcher but what do i know?

Reds Pitcher=Good

My brain can't comprehend this.

:help:

He can't be good, there has to be a reason for him playing like this. Thank god we have Baseball Tonight and ESPN to give us these reasons!

Topcat
05-02-2006, 01:03 AM
Not sure who said it maybe Ken Rosenthal, but he mentioned how Maddux and Pedro are now mixing speeds even more frequently and have found succes. Maybe the NL has become nothing more than a mashers Fastball League and pitchers with change of speeds and different arm movements are succeeding?

Wheelhouse
05-02-2006, 01:27 AM
Kriv said the naysayers were furious about Arroyo initially because he is a "flyball" pitcher. Then he said "but the guy knows how to pitch."

Dunner44
05-02-2006, 01:35 AM
B-Arroyo said it was because ut was his first time through, because he didn't have to face the yanks 19 times, because he has the pitcher and others in the lineup, etc. (On BBTN)

Wheelhouse
05-02-2006, 01:40 AM
Yeah I heard that, and not facing a DH helps, but what is the guy supposed to say "Because I'm pitching beautifully."?

pedro
05-02-2006, 01:49 AM
Any starter on this team with an ERA of 4 will be a winner, especially if it includes a lot of innings. This staff has not enjoyed a lot of 4.00 ERA starters in recent years.


I agree.

M2
05-02-2006, 02:10 AM
Arroyo should pitch better than his career norms if for no other reason than these should be his prime years.

And I don't care how many times you see it, when his stuff is moving like it is this month, Bronson Arroyo is one tough pitcher. I think we're all aware that some helium's going to come out of his balloon, but 200+ IP and a 3.75 ERA is well within his grasp. Obviously if he stays incredibly hit lucky he can do a lot better than that. I should add that Arroyo probably deserves some credit for his low BABIP at this moment. Sometimes it's pure luck, but given the bite on his pitches I'd expect hitters to make less effective contact against Arroyo. He shouldn't trounce the team BABIP average, but if he finished 10-20 points under it, that wouldn't be stunning. Going to the plate against him these days has been like trying to hit a wasp.

BronsonFan
05-02-2006, 07:47 AM
Really... it's no accident he's pitching well.

Obviously he wasn't always this good with the Sox and probably wont' be with the Reds, but in contrast to the type of guys who always go out and pitch 5 2/3 innings with 4 or 5 runs on most days... and sometimes get the 6 2/3 with 1 or 2 runs... Bronson pitched some exceptional games with ace-type stats to go along with his stinkers.

Not always successful, but never rattled. Don't be surprised if he throws up a couple of 10-12 K games along the way when his breaking pitch is really biting.

StillFunkyB
05-02-2006, 08:34 AM
Yeah, I caught Olney and Dumbo on SC last night talking about Arroyo.

Those guys are complete bafoons. I hate ESPN.

bengalred
05-02-2006, 06:00 PM
HATERS! The Reds are finally doing well, we have a tremendous pitcher, and still no credit. :thumbdown

creek14
05-02-2006, 07:14 PM
I think BobB has a point.

But I think it's more of a case of Bronson telling the BoSox to kiss his :mooner: with each W.

He was hurt by the trade, he has something to prove. And if that helps the Reds, then more power to him.

NastyBoy
05-02-2006, 07:31 PM
He can locate his curvball anywhere in the strike zone. He gets ahead of the hitters then throws one out of the zone.

If anyone has MLB radio, you need to listen to the announcers for the other team. Its is interesting. Last week against the Nats, the annoucers were going on and on about his curveball during the entire game.

RedsManRick
05-02-2006, 07:51 PM
Pitchers moving from the AL to the NL see an average ERA decrease of ~.50. Bronson is approach his prime as a pitcher and had a 4.3 ERA the last two seasons in the AL. Furthermore, though GABP is home run friendly, it is run nuetral. Consider the follow Park Factors (Runs):

2003:
Fenway - 1.296
GABP - .992

2004:
Fenway - 1.120
GABP - .847

2005:
Fenway - 1.027
GABP - 1.128

Average 2003-05:
Fenway - 1.148 (14.8% increase in runs)
GABP - .989 (1.1% decrease in runs)

If nothing else changed, and assuming Bronson pitches half his games at home we would expect a drop of ~8% in his ERA based on park alone -- from 4.30 to 3.96. If you then subtract the .50 which is commonly associated with the league differential, that leaves him at 3.46 expected ERA.

Now I'm not claiming this is a scientifically accurate prediction. But given the above, I think we could reasonably expect to see a mid 3's ERA from Bronson and should not be surprised.

Spitball
05-02-2006, 10:19 PM
Don't forget he has that wicked breaking ball strike out pitch. In my opinion, that's his bread and butter pitch

He pitches backward much like Barry Zito. Instead of setting up his other pitches with his fastball, he uses his curve to get batters leaning then zips that fastball on the inside corner. He is fun to watch.