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View Full Version : Is Reds' Pitching any Better?



GullyFoyle
05-02-2006, 11:37 AM
I posted this in another thread on Reds Live, but I wanted to break it out and get any feedback people might have.

Red's Pitching April 2005
Games 23 Hits 220 HR 35 Earned Runs 111 ERA 5.05 WHIP 1.51

Red's Pitching April 2006
Games 25 Hits 240 HR 41 Earned Runs 119 ERA 4.85 WHIP 1.43

This does not include Arroyo's game against the Cardinals yesterday...

Statistically speaking there only seems to be a small difference which carried out over the season can be big, but its probably to early to tell...

Any ideas about why the staff looks so much better?

Cyclone792
05-02-2006, 11:47 AM
Any ideas about why the staff looks so much better?

I've recently started tracking the pitching and defensive numbers in a game-by-game basis. The info is at home, and I'm just about ready to bail out of work to head to the game right now, but when I get home I'll post some of the details. In short, at least from what I can remember, there were three primary factors:

1) Our pitchers have recently been very, very BABIP hit lucky. They've actually been so hit lucky recently that it's highly troublesome what may happen when the luck runs out.
2) Our team defensive efficiency ratio has improved considerably since Griffey's been on the DL.
3) We've had a small handful of terrible games mixed in with more above average and good games from the pitching staff moreso than a large quantity of below average games.

I'll try to post more details later tonight.

Johnny Footstool
05-02-2006, 11:52 AM
Less "pitch to contact", more "throw strikes".

Fewer walks. Improved K/9. Vastly improved K/BB ratio.


April 2005:
197.2 IP, 79 BB, 134 K

April 2006:
221 IP, 75 BB, 169 K

dougdirt
05-02-2006, 11:54 AM
1) Our pitchers have recently been very, very BABIP hit lucky. They've actually been so hit lucky recently that it's highly troublesome what may happen when the luck runs out.
2) Our team defensive efficiency ratio has improved considerably since Griffey's been on the DL.

I'll try to post more details later tonight.

1) The pitching isnt that good. Outside of Arroyo and Harang, everyone else in the rotation scares me. Arroyo isnt going to last like this and I wouldnt be suprised if he had his ERA go up to around 4 by the time the season is done. Nothing bad, but not like he is now. I dont know how BABIP works exactly, so my question is, does the improved defense have anything to do with being hit lucky, as the defense is getting to the ball more so now than they used to, or am I just wrong?

2) How much do you also think Brandon Phillips has played into that? Griffey is bad out there, but do you think the combo of Griff gone and Phillips in has helped a lot more than just Griff gone?

GullyFoyle
05-02-2006, 12:00 PM
I'll try to post more details later tonight.

Interesting... I'll look forward to it.

When I have more time it will be interesting to try to break out starters and relievers to compare...

or maybe our offense is just above pace for last year... I can't remember if we started out on a tear offensively speaking or not... will check back.

Reds1
05-02-2006, 01:22 PM
The starters are going longer in games, walking less batters. I think our numbers are inflated from a couple bad games. Like the 11-0 Brewers game and opening day for sure. I'd like to see revised stats taking those two games out. The line up we have know is better defensively and that seems to have helped out the pitching. I think they are better looking beyond the numbers. The pen has even been much better of late, but that's no surprise as they don't have so many innings to pitch.

ochre
05-02-2006, 01:27 PM
You'd have to also take out the two best games for that to be valid.

GullyFoyle
05-02-2006, 02:04 PM
Reds 2005 April Starters:
GS WHIP ERA
Ortiz 1 1.60 1.80
Claussen 3 1.53 2.51
Harang 5 1.33 4.30
Wilson 6 1.56 5.25
Belisle 3 1.53 6.35
Milton 5 1.54 6.75

IP by starters: 128.1
IP per Game by starters: 5.57
Avg. WHIP for Starters 1.50
Avg. ERA for Starters: 5.01


Reds 2006 April Starters:
GS WHIP ERA
Arroyo 5 .92 2.34
Elizardo 2 1.15 3.46
Harang 6 1.25 4.35
Claussen 5 1.62 6.04
Milton 3 1.39 6.50
Williams 4 2.24 9.53

IP by starters: 147.1
IP per Game by starters: 5.88
Avg. WHIP for Starters 1.42
Avg. ERA for Starters: 5.27

This years starting staff has a better combined WHIP (Walks plus Hits divided by Innings Pitched) but a worse ERA and more Innings Pitched per Game.

It looks like this year might be slightly better... but, I suspect Cyclone's numbers will show that it is mainly luck and defense. :(

As you might guess Williams is bring the Reds down, down, down...

GullyFoyle
05-02-2006, 02:06 PM
The starters are going longer in games, walking less batters. I think our numbers are inflated from a couple bad games. Like the 11-0 Brewers game and opening day for sure. I'd like to see revised stats taking those two games out. The line up we have know is better defensively and that seems to have helped out the pitching. I think they are better looking beyond the numbers. The pen has even been much better of late, but that's no surprise as they don't have so many innings to pitch.


You'd have to also take out the two best games for that to be valid.

Yep, it would hardly be fair to take out the Brewers' 11-0 game and not take out the Reds' 11-0 game... :)

KronoRed
05-02-2006, 03:05 PM
We'll see at the end of the year, the pen still has the capacity to destroy all the good the starters do ;)

M2
05-02-2006, 03:33 PM
The pitching is a curious mix of better and worse. Overall, it's still plenty bad, but there are more good pitchers (particularly starters) than the Reds have had in recent years. So far it's been underscoring the power things gone right can have, even in the face of multiple things gone wrong.

Reds1
05-02-2006, 03:34 PM
Yep, it would hardly be fair to take out the Brewers' 11-0 game and not take out the Reds' 11-0 game... :)


Ya. :) It just seems they are pitching much better then those numbers, but I guess a lot of games like today. We give up 10 hits, but only 2 Runs. Again, pretty good defense today. This is just sweet.

traderumor
05-02-2006, 04:35 PM
The first two weeks of the season put the staff numbers in a pretty big hole. Since the Florida comeback, the only really bad pitching night was the 11-0 game.

Falls City Beer
05-02-2006, 04:41 PM
The first two weeks of the season put the staff numbers in a pretty big hole. Since the Florida comeback, the only really bad pitching night was the 11-0 game.

Right. It's important to consider how things are trending, particularly when where they're trending from is the outset of the season, which can produce highly unrepresentative numbers from both pitchers and hitters.

VR
05-02-2006, 05:05 PM
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=mlb&statType=2&sitSplit=&timeSubFrame=14&groupByTeam=true&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1

just sayin'

RedsManRick
05-02-2006, 05:11 PM
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=mlb&statType=2&sitSplit=&timeSubFrame=14&groupByTeam=true&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1

just sayin'

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?statType=3&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&groupByTeam=true&sitSplit=&Submit=Submit&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=14&sortByStat=DER

just sayin'

registerthis
05-02-2006, 06:24 PM
Yep, it's been a good week to be a Reds fan. One of the most enjoyable that I can remember recently.

wheels
05-02-2006, 06:38 PM
The offense seems to be in hyper drive right now as well.

Couple that with some honest to goodness pitching gems, and you've got yourself a good start.

The offense will hit a rough patch at some point, and I hope the pitching will continue to be up to the task. That will be the real test.

I also hope that Krivsky won't rest. They still another good starter.

I wish they could clone Aaron Harang.

Kc61
05-03-2006, 06:40 PM
The offense seems to be in hyper drive right now as well.

Couple that with some honest to goodness pitching gems, and you've got yourself a good start.

The offense will hit a rough patch at some point, and I hope the pitching will continue to be up to the task. That will be the real test.

I also hope that Krivsky won't rest. They still another good starter.

I wish they could clone Aaron Harang.

With Milton and Wilson on the horizon, the Lizard showing some ability, and Dumatrait in the wings, I don't know if a better starter option is attainable from outside before the trade deadline. I assume that, if in the race, they will try to get one then.

The bullpen is a different story and needs some immediate help. Todd Coffey is carrying a mighty big load as the 7th and 8th inning guy in virtually all competitive games. Mercker slips in once and awhile, but Coffey is being asked to cover a lot of pitching ground. I think the Reds need another late inning, durable set up man relatively soon. Maybe he is already on the team (time to try Hammond again?), but if not they need to add this piece.