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Cyclone792
05-02-2006, 09:42 PM
Well, I mentioned in another thread I was keeping track game-by-game the trends for Reds pitching and defense, including the Griffey Effect, and here I will attempt to provide some data and explain, to the best of my abilities, what is going on with all of the above ;)

First, here’s the game-by-game numbers themselves:


Date Opponent IP AB H R ER BB SO HR BF HBP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP DER ERA dERA

4/3/2006 Cubs 9 42 18 16 10 7 4 1 52 0 4.00 7.00 1.00 0.459 0.575 10.00 5.45
4/5/2006 Cubs 9 34 7 6 4 0 7 3 34 0 7.00 0.00 3.00 0.167 0.833 4.00 6.00
4/6/2006 Pirates 9 35 9 5 5 0 9 2 39 3 9.00 0.00 2.00 0.292 0.720 5.00 4.03
4/7/2006 Pirates 9 37 10 6 6 3 5 2 41 1 5.00 3.00 2.00 0.267 0.733 6.00 5.81
4/8/2006 Pirates 9 40 13 9 9 3 14 1 43 0 14.00 3.00 1.00 0.480 0.520 9.00 2.74
4/9/2006 Pirates 9 31 7 5 4 2 8 1 37 1 8.00 2.00 1.00 0.273 0.760 4.00 3.57
4/11/2006 Cubs 9 36 10 2 2 0 4 1 36 0 4.00 0.00 1.00 0.290 0.710 2.00 3.77
4/12/2006 Cubs 8 31 8 4 3 2 4 0 34 0 4.50 2.25 0.00 0.296 0.714 3.38 3.07
4/13/2006 Cubs 9 32 7 3 2 4 10 1 38 0 10.00 4.00 1.00 0.286 0.739 2.00 3.77
4/14/2006 Cardinals 9 29 5 0 0 3 7 0 34 0 7.00 3.00 0.00 0.227 0.792 0.00 2.74
4/15/2006 Cardinals 8 34 11 9 9 5 5 3 40 0 5.63 5.63 3.38 0.308 0.704 10.13 8.13
4/16/2006 Cardinals 8 35 13 8 8 4 3 4 39 0 3.38 4.50 4.50 0.321 0.679 9.00 9.63
4/17/2006 Marlins 9 33 8 1 1 3 9 0 37 1 9.00 3.00 0.00 0.333 0.667 1.00 2.40
4/18/2006 Marlins 9 44 18 12 12 3 11 3 47 0 11.00 3.00 3.00 0.500 0.500 12.00 5.34
4/19/2006 Marlins 9 40 15 8 8 4 9 4 45 1 9.00 4.00 4.00 0.407 0.593 8.00 7.39
4/20/2006 Brewers 9 40 16 8 8 4 7 2 47 1 7.00 4.00 2.00 0.452 0.576 8.00 5.32
4/21/2006 Brewers 9 33 6 1 1 2 10 1 35 0 10.00 2.00 1.00 0.227 0.773 1.00 3.14
4/22/2006 Brewers 8 36 13 11 11 4 8 5 41 0 9.00 4.50 5.63 0.348 0.667 12.38 9.73
4/23/2006 Brewers 9 30 5 0 0 2 4 0 32 0 4.00 2.00 0.00 0.192 0.808 0.00 3.07
4/24/2006 Nationals 9 33 6 2 2 2 5 0 36 1 5.00 2.00 0.00 0.214 0.786 2.00 2.86
4/25/2006 Nationals 9 36 11 5 4 3 1 2 39 0 1.00 3.00 2.00 0.273 0.727 4.00 6.70
4/26/2006 Nationals 9 29 1 0 0 4 9 0 33 0 9.00 4.00 0.00 0.050 0.950 0.00 2.56
4/28/2006 Astros 9 32 9 4 4 6 3 2 41 1 3.00 6.00 2.00 0.259 0.759 4.00 7.36
4/29/2006 Astros 9 33 7 3 3 3 8 1 36 0 8.00 3.00 1.00 0.250 0.750 3.00 3.89
4/30/2006 Astros 9 34 7 3 3 2 5 2 37 1 5.00 2.00 2.00 0.185 0.815 3.00 5.69
5/1/2006 Cardinals 9 30 4 1 1 3 4 1 33 0 4.00 3.00 1.00 0.120 0.880 1.00 4.96
5/2/2006 Cardinals 9 33 10 2 2 2 3 1 38 1 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.310 0.710 2.00 4.60

IP AB H R ER BB SO HR BF HBP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP DER ERA dERA
TOTALS 239 932 254 134 122 80 176 43 1044 12 6.63 3.01 1.62 0.296 0.712 4.59 4.95

For the readers who may not know what some of the above statistical terms are, here’s a brief overview:

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The batting average on all balls hit into play off a pitching staff. This is primarily determined by a combination of luck and the fielding defense behind the pitcher. League average is around the .300 mark, and normally BABIP figures usually find their way back to that .300 mark as the number of games increases. If a pitching staff is below .300, they are considered to be hit-lucky. If they are above .300, they are considered to be hit-unlucky. Regression to the mean, in this case .300, almost always occurs as a season progresses.

DER (Defensive Efficiency Ratio): The ratio of balls in play that the defense is able to convert into outs. This is also driven partially by luck, however, teams with better fielding defenses will almost certainly find their way among the league leaders in DER while teams with poorer fielding defenses will likely find their way among the league trailers in DER. A very good DER would be near 0.740, while a very poor DER would be around 0.670. League average is around the 0.700 to 0.710 level. In individual games, this number can fluctuate drastically, but over several games most team DER numbers fall within 0.670 to 0.740, unless they are exceptionally great or poor defensively.

dERA (Defense Independent Pitching Stats Earned Run Average): Also called DIPS ERA, it is a stat which attempts to isolate the factors that are not dependent on the fielding defense behind a pitcher. It is used to deterine how an individual pitcher or pitching staff has performed regardless of the defense behind them.

The rest of the above stats should be self-explanatory to everyone.

The two important columns to compare so far are the totals for ERA and dERA. Reds pitchers currently have an ERA of 4.59, which suggests a considerable improvement over the ERAs in the 5.00 range that we’re used to in past seasons. Unfortunately, however, our dERA is nearly spot on that to 5.00 mark and sits at an ugly 4.95.

Unless Reds pitchers are able to improve their current K/9, BB/9 or HR/9 marks, it is very reasonable to assume that in the very near future our team ERA will begin to rise and level off with the team dERA mark. Consistently fielding the best possible defensive alignment will help prevent the team ERA from climbing to the tree branch that our dERA resides on. Our team BABIP is .295, and while our pitchers haven’t been considerably hit-lucky, they’ve been hit-lucky to a slight degree. What is also very probable is that our pitchers are stranding more runners on base than would be expected, and that’s definitely a fire we no longer want to engage. Sooner or later, we’re going to get burned.

Here’s a chart showing the relationship to our team ERA and team dERA so far this season. Usually, team ERA loves to follow wherever the team dERA is trending:


http://www.potd.simleaguecentral.com/downloads/dERA_ERA_5_02.JPG

For much of the early few weeks of the season, our team ERA was higher than our team dERA, which meant that our pitchers were getting unlucky and that our team defense wasn’t exactly optimal. Starting on April 23rd in Milwaukee, the tide changed and our pitchers suddenly started becoming extremely hit-lucky, and it’s also probable that our team defense improved a bit and became much more efficient.

Here’s a chart showing both how our team BABIP and DER has trended with its seasonal average along with the game-by-game trend results:


http://www.potd.simleaguecentral.com/downloads/DER_BABIP_5_02.JPG

Again, notice around April 23rd that our team defensive efficiency spikes upward while our team BABIP spikes downward. More evidence that our defense is doing a better job and that our pitchers are simply being much luckier than they were earlier in the season with where batted balls are landing.

Is being hit-lucky good for the games we’ve already won? Of course, anything that assists in achieving a win is good, even if it’s luck. The problem with luck, however, is if you rely on it consistently you’re just setting yourself up for the big collapse. Very recently during our current hot streak, Reds pitchers are simply getting exceptionally lucky. This is troublesome, because when the luck runs out and the results regress to the mean, we’re going to start seeing more of those ugly pitching performances we’re all accustomed to seeing.

For our current pitching staff to continue pitching well, or well enough to give our offense a decent chance to win every night at the yard, they must strive for three factors, 1) raise their K/9, 2) lower their BB/9, and 3) lower their HR/9. Let’s see recently what the trends are for each of the three factors:


http://www.potd.simleaguecentral.com/downloads/K9_5_02.JPG
http://www.potd.simleaguecentral.com/downloads/BB9_5_02.JPG
http://www.potd.simleaguecentral.com/downloads/HR9_5_02.JPG

The good: Our HR/9 rate is dropping as of recent games.
The meah: Our BB/9 rate is holding steady when excluding the outlier of Friday night’s game vs. Houston.
The bad: Our K/9 rate has been on a downward spiral for the last week plus.

Several things can happen in the future from this point forward, but the key will be ensuring that our K/9 rate rebounds before our pitchers suddenly start becoming BABIP hit-unlucky. If our staff can rebound the K/9 rate, we can weather the storm of some high BABIP numbers somewhat, but if we’re not striking guys out and balls hit into play start falling for hits, expect those ERAs to jump up quickly.

Now, let’s go back to the original game log chart and look at one more piece of information:


Date Opponent IP AB H R ER BB SO HR BF HBP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP DER ERA dERA

4/3/2006 Cubs 9 42 18 16 10 7 4 1 52 0 4.00 7.00 1.00 0.459 0.575 10.00 5.45
4/5/2006 Cubs 9 34 7 6 4 0 7 3 34 0 7.00 0.00 3.00 0.167 0.833 4.00 6.00
4/6/2006 Pirates 9 35 9 5 5 0 9 2 39 3 9.00 0.00 2.00 0.292 0.720 5.00 4.03
4/7/2006 Pirates 9 37 10 6 6 3 5 2 41 1 5.00 3.00 2.00 0.267 0.733 6.00 5.81
4/8/2006 Pirates 9 40 13 9 9 3 14 1 43 0 14.00 3.00 1.00 0.480 0.520 9.00 2.74
4/9/2006 Pirates 9 31 7 5 4 2 8 1 37 1 8.00 2.00 1.00 0.273 0.760 4.00 3.57
4/11/2006 Cubs 9 36 10 2 2 0 4 1 36 0 4.00 0.00 1.00 0.290 0.710 2.00 3.77
4/12/2006 Cubs 8 31 8 4 3 2 4 0 34 0 4.50 2.25 0.00 0.296 0.714 3.38 3.07
4/13/2006 Cubs 9 32 7 3 2 4 10 1 38 0 10.00 4.00 1.00 0.286 0.739 2.00 3.77
4/14/2006 Cardinals 9 29 5 0 0 3 7 0 34 0 7.00 3.00 0.00 0.227 0.792 0.00 2.74
4/15/2006 Cardinals 8 34 11 9 9 5 5 3 40 0 5.63 5.63 3.38 0.308 0.704 10.13 8.13
4/16/2006 Cardinals 8 35 13 8 8 4 3 4 39 0 3.38 4.50 4.50 0.321 0.679 9.00 9.63
4/17/2006 Marlins 9 33 8 1 1 3 9 0 37 1 9.00 3.00 0.00 0.333 0.667 1.00 2.40
4/18/2006 Marlins 9 44 18 12 12 3 11 3 47 0 11.00 3.00 3.00 0.500 0.500 12.00 5.34
4/19/2006 Marlins 9 40 15 8 8 4 9 4 45 1 9.00 4.00 4.00 0.407 0.593 8.00 7.39
4/20/2006 Brewers 9 40 16 8 8 4 7 2 47 1 7.00 4.00 2.00 0.452 0.576 8.00 5.32
4/21/2006 Brewers 9 33 6 1 1 2 10 1 35 0 10.00 2.00 1.00 0.227 0.773 1.00 3.14
4/22/2006 Brewers 8 36 13 11 11 4 8 5 41 0 9.00 4.50 5.63 0.348 0.667 12.38 9.73
4/23/2006 Brewers 9 30 5 0 0 2 4 0 32 0 4.00 2.00 0.00 0.192 0.808 0.00 3.07
4/24/2006 Nationals 9 33 6 2 2 2 5 0 36 1 5.00 2.00 0.00 0.214 0.786 2.00 2.86
4/25/2006 Nationals 9 36 11 5 4 3 1 2 39 0 1.00 3.00 2.00 0.273 0.727 4.00 6.70
4/26/2006 Nationals 9 29 1 0 0 4 9 0 33 0 9.00 4.00 0.00 0.050 0.950 0.00 2.56
4/28/2006 Astros 9 32 9 4 4 6 3 2 41 1 3.00 6.00 2.00 0.259 0.759 4.00 7.36
4/29/2006 Astros 9 33 7 3 3 3 8 1 36 0 8.00 3.00 1.00 0.250 0.750 3.00 3.89
4/30/2006 Astros 9 34 7 3 3 2 5 2 37 1 5.00 2.00 2.00 0.185 0.815 3.00 5.69
5/1/2006 Cardinals 9 30 4 1 1 3 4 1 33 0 4.00 3.00 1.00 0.120 0.880 1.00 4.96
5/2/2006 Cardinals 9 33 10 2 2 2 3 1 38 1 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.310 0.710 2.00 4.60

IP AB H R ER BB SO HR BF HBP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP DER ERA dERA
TOTALS 239 932 254 134 122 80 176 43 1044 12 6.63 3.01 1.62 0.296 0.712 4.59 4.95

Pay close attention to the ERA column for individual games. If you notice the distribution of individual game ERAs, it’s obvious that in approximately one-third of our games our pitchers are getting shelled significantly to the tune of ~8.00 ERA or higher. Then, in the other two-thirds of our games, our pitchers are performing extremely well with most of the individual game ERAs in the 0-4.00 range (i.e. range that still allows our offense at least a moderate chance of still outscoring the opposition).

How’s that compare to last season? Well, here’s the data chart:


http://www.potd.simleaguecentral.com/downloads/2005_cum.JPG

In 2005, our pitching staff only gave us individual game ERAs of 4.00 or lower ~30 percent of all our games, and game ERAs of 5.00 or lower ~45 percent of all games. What’s interesting about the comparison from last season to this season is our pitching staff is keeping us in a higher percentage of games this season than last season, however, the few games we have gotten shelled so far this season have been serious shellings.

How are we 19-8? Simple. Take an offense that’s averaging 5.85 runs per game and give them a pitching staff that’s holding their opponents to an ERA of 4.00 or lower in nearly 60 percent of our total games. Our overall pitching numbers have been abysmal, but so far we’re fortunate enough that we’ve clustered many of those bad performances together in merely a handful of total games.

Perhaps we should call this the Arroyo/Harang Effect; or what happens when we have more than one above average starting pitcher in our rotation.

Lastly for kicks and giggles, let’s analyze the Griffey Effect, but also be careful to take into consideration that since Griffey’s played in so few games this season that the small sample size looms large.

First, here’s the gamelog with the individual game totals and overall totals with and without Griffey. Following that is the chart for game-by-game defensive efficiency numbers with and without Griffey starting in center field:


With Griffey in Center Field
Date Opponent IP AB H R ER BB SO HR BF HBP Errors K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP DER ERA dERA

4/3/2006 Cubs 9 42 18 16 10 7 4 1 52 0 0 4.00 7.00 1.00 0.459 0.575 10.00
4/5/2006 Cubs 9 34 7 6 4 0 7 3 34 0 0 7.00 0.00 3.00 0.167 0.833 4.00
4/6/2006 Pirates 9 35 9 5 5 0 9 2 39 3 0 9.00 0.00 2.00 0.292 0.720 5.00
4/7/2006 Pirates 9 37 10 6 6 3 5 2 41 1 0 5.00 3.00 2.00 0.267 0.733 6.00
4/8/2006 Pirates 9 40 13 9 9 3 14 1 43 0 0 14.00 3.00 1.00 0.480 0.520 9.00
4/9/2006 Pirates 9 31 7 5 4 2 8 1 37 1 0 8.00 2.00 1.00 0.273 0.760 4.00
4/11/2006 Cubs 9 36 10 2 2 0 4 1 36 0 0 4.00 0.00 1.00 0.290 0.710 2.00
4/12/2006 Cubs 8 31 8 4 3 2 4 0 34 0 0 4.50 2.25 0.00 0.296 0.714 3.38

TOTALS 71 286 82 53 43 17 55 11 316 5 0 6.97 2.15 1.39 0.323 0.689 5.45 4.29



Without Griffey in Center Field
Date Opponent IP AB H R ER BB SO HR BF HBP Errors K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP DER ERA dERA

4/13/2006 Cubs 9 32 7 3 2 4 10 1 38 0 0 10.00 4.00 1.00 0.286 0.739 2.00
4/14/2006 Cardinals 9 29 5 0 0 3 7 0 34 0 0 7.00 3.00 0.00 0.227 0.792 0.00
4/15/2006 Cardinals 8 34 11 9 9 5 5 3 40 0 0 5.63 5.63 3.38 0.308 0.704 10.13
4/16/2006 Cardinals 8 35 13 8 8 4 3 4 39 0 0 3.38 4.50 4.50 0.321 0.679 9.00
4/17/2006 Marlins 9 33 8 1 1 3 9 0 37 1 0 9.00 3.00 0.00 0.333 0.667 1.00
4/18/2006 Marlins 9 44 18 12 12 3 11 3 47 0 0 11.00 3.00 3.00 0.500 0.500 12.00
4/19/2006 Marlins 9 40 15 8 8 4 9 4 45 1 0 9.00 4.00 4.00 0.407 0.593 8.00
4/20/2006 Brewers 9 40 16 8 8 4 7 2 47 1 0 7.00 4.00 2.00 0.452 0.576 8.00
4/21/2006 Brewers 9 33 6 1 1 2 10 1 35 0 0 10.00 2.00 1.00 0.227 0.773 1.00
4/22/2006 Brewers 8 36 13 11 11 4 8 5 41 0 0 9.00 4.50 5.63 0.348 0.667 12.38
4/23/2006 Brewers 9 30 5 0 0 2 4 0 32 0 0 4.00 2.00 0.00 0.192 0.808 0.00
4/24/2006 Nationals 9 33 6 2 2 2 5 0 36 1 0 5.00 2.00 0.00 0.214 0.786 2.00
4/25/2006 Nationals 9 36 11 5 4 3 1 2 39 0 0 1.00 3.00 2.00 0.273 0.727 4.00
4/26/2006 Nationals 9 29 1 0 0 4 9 0 33 0 0 9.00 4.00 0.00 0.050 0.950 0.00
4/28/2006 Astros 9 32 9 4 4 6 3 2 41 1 0 3.00 6.00 2.00 0.259 0.759 4.00
4/29/2006 Astros 9 33 7 3 3 3 8 1 36 0 0 8.00 3.00 1.00 0.250 0.750 3.00
4/30/2006 Astros 9 34 7 3 3 2 5 2 37 1 0 5.00 2.00 2.00 0.185 0.815 3.00
5/1/2006 Cardinals 9 30 4 1 1 3 4 1 33 0 0 4.00 3.00 1.00 0.120 0.880 1.00
5/2/2006 Cardinals 9 33 10 2 2 2 3 1 38 1 0 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.310 0.710 2.00

TOTALS 168 646 172 81 79 63 121 32 728 7 0 6.48 3.38 1.71 0.284 0.723 4.23 5.24


http://www.potd.simleaguecentral.com/downloads/DER_grif_5_02.JPG

http://www.potd.simleaguecentral.com/downloads/DER_no_grif_5_02.JPG

In one game that Griffey has started we’ve put up an excellent individual game team DER. In five games we’ve been average or slightly above average. In two games we’ve been absolutely terrible. Without Griffey, our team DER has been average or higher in two-thirds of our games, and we’ve been terrible in 16 percent of our games.

The sample size for individual games is too small to notice any noteworthy trends, but as the season progresses it could become meaningful to track how the team performs in overall efficiency with and without Griffey starting in center field.

dougdirt
05-02-2006, 10:16 PM
thats some pretty interesting stuff. I also am wondering what affect Brandon Phillips at second base coincides with the defense as well. Like you said regarding Griffey, its quite a small sample size to make any true connection to anything due to luck. Phillips started playing the same time Griffey stopped playing, so it could be a little bit of both Phillips and Griffey with the defense.

GullyFoyle
05-02-2006, 10:25 PM
Thanks Cyclone!

Very interesting... its good to have a sense of how lucky the pitchers have been and what the probable mean is. We will have to see if returning to the expected average can be done without losing a large number of games.

M2
05-02-2006, 10:31 PM
Amazing stuff Cyclone.

One add to make here is the team doubles allowed rate. With Jr. the Reds allowed 2.91 doubles per game. Without him it's dropped to 1.68 doubles per game.

Far East
05-02-2006, 11:06 PM
[QUOTE=Cyclone792]...Unless Reds pitchers are able to improve their current K/9, BB/9 or HR/9 marks, it is very reasonable to assume that in the very near future our team ERA will begin to rise and level off with the team dERA mark...

Which reinforces the virtual unanimous opinion that the Reds still need some "impact" studs in the rotation/pen. Unless they can get career years out of the likes of Milton, Wilson, Ramirez, etc.

dougdirt
05-02-2006, 11:10 PM
Far East, asking for a career year out of Ramirez in a year where he is 23 is reaching. I think he could be better than both Milton or Wilson this year, but I dont see him keeping an ERA under 4.00. He will probably be sent back down though once one of the two previously mentioned pitchers come back though.

D-Man
05-03-2006, 12:24 AM
Nice work Cyclone. Two additional points:

*The Reds are playing .700 ball right now. That level of playing is unsustainable over the long haul--clearly, this isn't the 1998 Yankees that we're watching on the field. Any team that plays .700 ball over a period of time is going to overachieve considerably.

*The Reds' pitching staff has performed in an extremely volatile fashion thus far. The club is rendering ~5 runs, but the standard deviation of runs allowed is 4 (!). In other words, its been a feast or famine staff, and that performance volatility has been extremely valuable. To quote a nice article I read recently, "Now imagine that Mr. Inconsistent allowed no runs in half his starts and 10 in the other half. He'd win all his 0-run starts, but he'd also win the occasional 10-run start (about 18% of those starts, actually)." The article suggests that a volatile performer will add an extra 1.5 wins (per 30 games played) versus a static performer. That's huge.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/same-old-same-old/

With a powerhouse offense, such this Reds' version, overcoming a disasterous start is not insurmountable. And all those 0, 1, or 2 RA performances are almost guaranteed wins for the Reds.

Cyclone792
05-03-2006, 11:30 AM
thats some pretty interesting stuff. I also am wondering what affect Brandon Phillips at second base coincides with the defense as well. Like you said regarding Griffey, its quite a small sample size to make any true connection to anything due to luck. Phillips started playing the same time Griffey stopped playing, so it could be a little bit of both Phillips and Griffey with the defense.

M2 brought up a great point about the Reds' doubles allowed rate since Griffey's been on the DL, and it's something I completely overlooked, yet is still very germane to the analysis. As useful as defensive efficiency ratio is, it still doesn't distinguish between singles, doubles and triples so it is very possible that Freel is helping track down more balls in the gaps and hold hitters to singles on balls that would otherwise have been doubles with Griffey in center field.

D-Man also touched on the volatile nature of the staff so far and the remarkable standard deviation (I think it was 3.8, specifically). Given all the factors so far this season, I'm really not that surprised that we're a few games over our pyt record.

This should be relatively easy to track from here on out, and I'll also toss the doubles allowed rates in to track with the rest of the data. That way we'll get an idea how the trends travel as the season progresses, and if/when a collapse of the pitching staff occurs we'll have a solid understanding of why, how and when that collapse happens.

lollipopcurve
05-03-2006, 12:25 PM
Interesting, Cyclone.

Regarding the doubles, I think we could describe each double to get an even better sense of what's going on with the defense. Enough of us watch the games that we could probably get a decent read on which fielders was "responsible" for each double, so to speak. I'd tag the doubles along the lines of:

Groundball: 1B line, 3B line
Shallow Pop: LF line, 1B line, LF, CF, RF
Line drive: LF line, RF line
Gapper on ground: LCF, RCF
Gapper in air: LCF, RCF
Wall ball/Over the head: LF, CF, RF

Obviously, there is some subjectivity as to how to ascribe responsibility for some of these kinds of doubles. But, I do think that in the interest of isolating the CF position, it would serve to at least weed out doubles that take place along the 1B/RF and 3B/LF lines.

dougdirt
05-03-2006, 12:45 PM
Interesting, Cyclone.

Regarding the doubles, I think we could describe each double to get an even better sense of what's going on with the defense. Enough of us watch the games that we could probably get a decent read on which fielders was "responsible" for each double, so to speak. I'd tag the doubles along the lines of:

Groundball: 1B line, 3B line
Shallow Pop: LF line, 1B line, LF, CF, RF
Line drive: LF line, RF line
Gapper on ground: LCF, RCF
Gapper in air: LCF, RCF
Wall ball/Over the head: LF, CF, RF

Obviously, there is some subjectivity as to how to ascribe responsibility for some of these kinds of doubles. But, I do think that in the interest of isolating the CF position, it would serve to at least weed out doubles that take place along the 1B/RF and 3B/LF lines.

Well I have the time later this evening to go through and look at the gameday from each game and take down what part of the field each double waas hit to. Line Drive, pop up, etc you cant tell, but you can tell what part of the field the ball was hit to. So if no one else does it before tonight, I will get on it later this afternoon/evening and we can at least get some information.

M2
05-03-2006, 12:51 PM
One thing to consider on doubles down the OF lines, a rangier CF would allow corner OFs to play the lines tighter, cutting off or catching a greater number of those balls. It's what Cesar Geronimo allowed Ken Griffey Sr. and George Foster to do.

dougdirt
05-03-2006, 12:55 PM
M2, I would imagine the information is available for a price, but for those with season tickets who go to a lot of games, do they notice the corner guys playing differently with Freel in there rather than Griffey? Obviously on TV you cant tell those things, but at the game if you were looking for it, you probably could notice it.

M2
05-03-2006, 01:18 PM
M2, I would imagine the information is available for a price, but for those with season tickets who go to a lot of games, do they notice the corner guys playing differently with Freel in there rather than Griffey? Obviously on TV you cant tell those things, but at the game if you were looking for it, you probably could notice it.

Yeah, it's impossible to tell unless you're looking for it at live games. I came away with the impression that Bob Boone shaded his corners a lot more toward CF when Jr. was out there than when, say, Reggie Taylor would be patrolling CF. Whether that's carried through to the Narron regime, I can't say.

One other consideration on OF corner doubles is that a better CF who can back up his corners might cause those players to go after balls with less trepidation than if a less rangy CF were on duty. For instance, when Adam Dunn's trying to play a low liner he might be a lot more worried about making a perfect play if he isn't sure whether the CF can cover his back. If he trusts the CF will be there to minimize any damage on a misplay then he can better focus on the athletic task at hand.

If he isn't confident the CF can get behind him, then it makes the decision of whether to let the ball drop for a hit or try to make the catch all the more difficult. It can cause a situation where you're doing too much thinking and not enough reacting.

Far East
05-03-2006, 03:31 PM
Some other stats so far, as compared to last season:

Year --- K/BB --- ERA --- WHIP --- BAA

2005 --- 1.94 --- 5.18 --- 1.50 --- .290

2006 --- 2.20 --- 4.59 --- 1.40 --- .273

The greatest improvement thus far is in strikeouts compared to walks allowed.

% Improved: K/BB ~13%, ERA ~11%, WHIP ~7%, BAA ~6%

dougdirt
05-03-2006, 07:40 PM
Ok, I am starting to go through the gameday things now, and hoping to have a chart of every double or triple against the reds. There will be several pictures, as you cant chart them all on one thing, as they play in different stadiums. I should be done this evening some time.

Cyclone792
05-03-2006, 08:09 PM
Ok, I am starting to go through the gameday things now, and hoping to have a chart of every double or triple against the reds. There will be several pictures, as you cant chart them all on one thing, as they play in different stadiums. I should be done this evening some time.

Excellent stuff, and I can't wait to see what you kind of data you come up with.

For now, here's the 2B/9 chart for game-by-game totals and the season average progressively:



Date Opponent IP 2B 2B/9 2B/9 Average

4/3/2006 Cubs 9 5 5.00 5.00
4/5/2006 Cubs 9 2 2.00 3.50
4/6/2006 Pirates 9 1 1.00 2.67
4/7/2006 Pirates 9 2 2.00 2.50
4/8/2006 Pirates 9 5 5.00 3.00
4/9/2006 Pirates 9 3 3.00 3.00
4/11/2006 Cubs 9 2 2.00 2.86
4/12/2006 Cubs 8 2 2.25 2.79
4/13/2006 Cubs 9 1 1.00 2.59
4/14/2006 Cardinals 9 1 1.00 2.43
4/15/2006 Cardinals 8 3 3.38 2.51
4/16/2006 Cardinals 8 1 1.13 2.40
4/17/2006 Marlins 9 2 2.00 2.37
4/18/2006 Marlins 9 7 7.00 2.71
4/19/2006 Marlins 9 1 1.00 2.59
4/20/2006 Brewers 9 3 3.00 2.62
4/21/2006 Brewers 9 2 2.00 2.58
4/22/2006 Brewers 8 4 4.50 2.68
4/23/2006 Brewers 9 2 2.00 2.64
4/24/2006 Nationals 9 1 1.00 2.56
4/25/2006 Nationals 9 0 0.00 2.43
4/26/2006 Nationals 9 0 0.00 2.32
4/28/2006 Astros 9 2 2.00 2.31
4/29/2006 Astros 9 2 2.00 2.29
4/30/2006 Astros 9 1 1.00 2.24
5/1/2006 Cardinals 9 1 1.00 2.19
5/2/2006 Cardinals 9 0 0.00 2.11

IP 2B 2B/9
Totals with Griffey 71 22 2.79
Totals without Griffey 168 34 1.82
Overall Totals 239 56 2.11

http://www.potd.simleaguecentral.com/downloads/2B_5_02.JPG

As you can see in both the data set and the visual chart, Reds pitchers drastically started cutting down their doubles allowed rates in the Washington series. With Griffey in center field, the Reds have held their opponents to less than two doubles only once in his eight games. Without Griffey in center field (12.75 percent), the Reds have held their opponents to less than two doubles in 10 of 19 games (52.63 percent), including three games where we haven't allowed any doubles.

This is still somewhat of a small sample size, but as the season progresses and if/when Griffey returns to center field, it will be interesting to see how the trends fluctuate.

RedsManRick
05-03-2006, 08:19 PM
Cyclone, shouldn't we be looking at doubles as a percentage of total hits, rather than as a straight value per 9? As our pitchers are more effective generally, we would expect the amount of doubles to decrease naturally. I understand there's a chicken/egg arguement here, but if we're trying to isolate the effect of fielding, we need to control for pitcher effectiveness out as much as possible.

Cyclone792
05-03-2006, 08:33 PM
Cyclone, shouldn't we be looking at doubles as a percentage of total hits, rather than as a straight value per 9? As our pitchers are more effective generally, we would expect the amount of doubles to decrease naturally. I understand there's a chicken/egg arguement here, but if we're trying to isolate the effect of fielding, we need to control for pitcher effectiveness out as much as possible.

Good call, Rick, and now that you mention it ... I think we should look at both.

I won't do another chart here, but I will show the overall numbers of doubles allowed, including isolating games with and without Griffey starting in center field:

2B percentage of hits allowed with Griffey: 26.83 percent
2B percentage of hits allowed without Griffey: 19.77 percent
2B percentage of hits allowed overall: 22.05 percent

Again, small sample size still, but pretty telling, and this will be very interesting to track as the season progresses.

dougdirt
05-03-2006, 11:41 PM
Ok, so here is a picture that documents every double hit by an opposing player against the Reds at GABP in April. The picture is a little rough, but you can see all of the hits.
http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g66/dougdirt/gabpapril.jpg

Here are the pictures of the Road Series.

This is At St. Louis
http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g66/dougdirt/stlouisaway.jpg

This is at Milwaukee ***There is a double in CF that is barely showing up. At the deep part of CF, about a 1/4" to the left where the wall starts to go down and toward LF.***
http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g66/dougdirt/milwaukeeaway.jpg

This is at Chicago
http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g66/dougdirt/chicagoawayseries.jpg

This is at Washington
http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g66/dougdirt/atwashington.jpg

Cyclone792
05-04-2006, 12:13 AM
Interesting charts, Doug, and thanks for posting them.

One quick question. Is there any way for you to easily isolate all the doubles into two groups, one group for all games Griffey started in center field and the other group for all games Griffey did not start in center field?

Just from glancing at the charts, it appears that we've given up an unusually high amount of doubles in the gaps at GABP this season, though I'm not sure if that is a valid observation or not. One thing I do know is Griffey's time in center field was predominantly at home during our first homestand so if the perception of a high amount of doubles allowed in the gaps at GABP is true, then that's certainly informative.

dougdirt
05-04-2006, 12:50 AM
Here we go Cyclone. Some of the blue got real light as they blended in, but if you look good you should be able to see them all.

http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g66/dougdirt/withwithout.jpg

M2
05-04-2006, 10:08 AM
Wow, that chart is a screaming indictment of Jr.'s defense. Nice work doug.

dougdirt
05-04-2006, 11:04 AM
Yes, the chart is rough data, as we cant tell the trajectory or velocity the ball was hit, the situation (say the outfield was playing in for a smaller hitter and had one smashed over their head) and its a real small sample size, just 6 games with and 6 games without Griffey in CF.

Cyclone792
05-05-2006, 04:02 PM
Now that I have all of this set up, it's not difficult at all to continually update so I'm going to try to keep this updated periodically in a format that's easy to read and track.

Here's the data and the charts as of games played thru 05/04/2006, and feel free to draw your own conclusions:


Overall Team Totals

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

04/10/06 6.33 4.55 1.67 7.83 2.50 3.13 3.00 28.13% .680 .333
04/20/06 5.81 4.92 1.79 7.40 3.00 2.47 2.62 23.43% .669 .343
04/30/06 4.85 4.96 1.67 6.88 3.05 2.25 2.24 22.92% .706 .302
05/04/06 4.43 4.74 1.51 6.86 2.95 2.32 2.07 21.93% .710 .297


Splits with Griffey (8 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

05/04/06 5.45 4.29 1.39 6.97 2.15 3.24 2.79 26.83% .689 .323


Splits without Griffey (21 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

05/04/06 4.04 4.94 1.56 6.81 3.26 2.09 1.80 19.79% .719 .287

Eric_Davis
05-05-2006, 06:29 PM
I prefer the more simple "the Reds are winning with smoke and mirrors" theory.

Just kidding. Nice work. I find that an OPS differential will weigh itself out over the course of a season, and the REDS should be above .500, but not 20-8. The positive is that they have lowered their opponent's OPS lately, and ownership should continue to work the trade routes and improve the overall organization.

dougdirt
05-05-2006, 06:34 PM
cyclone, again that is some great work you have there. Excellent job. If I passed around more rep points more often I would hit you up with some more but I gave you some to recently.

redsrule2500
05-06-2006, 03:06 AM
That's intense statistics....

TOBTTReds
05-10-2006, 04:29 PM
Here's my interesting finding....
With Griffey in these are better:
K/9
BB/9
HR/9

Which are all things that are not effected by the fielders.

But one of the most important "telling" numbers here is the BAPIP (Batting avg for pitches in play) is MUCH higher with Griffey in there at .323 compared to .284. So based on the other states, our pitchers were pitching much better when Griffey was playing, but still gave up more hits per PIP.

The only thing that makes sense is Griffey gives up hits.

Cyclone792
05-10-2006, 04:56 PM
Here's my interesting finding....
With Griffey in these are better:
K/9
BB/9
HR/9

Which are all things that are not effected by the fielders.

But one of the most important "telling" numbers here is the BAPIP (Batting avg for pitches in play) is MUCH higher with Griffey in there at .323 compared to .284. So based on the other states, our pitchers were pitching much better when Griffey was playing, but still gave up more hits per PIP.

The only thing that makes sense is Griffey gives up hits.

Right, you picked up on most of the trends so far.

DER is defensive efficiency ratio, which is the rate at which the defense turns batted balls into outs. When BABIP goes down, DER goes up ... and vice versa. They aren't exact, which is why I listed both, but when you see a specific pattern in one you'll usually see the same pattern in the other.

Also notice the doubles rates, both the 2B/9 and the 2B% of all hits, which is the percentage of all hits that are doubles. BABIP and DER will not distinguish the difference between a single and a double so we're left to do that ourselves. Not surprisingly, when Griffey has been in center field this season the team has given up more doubles per nine innings as well as allowing a higher percentage of hits to be doubles. There likely is several balls that Freel/Denorfia are able to cut off in the gaps and hold the batter to a single that just get by Griffey and allow the batter to reach second base.

Luck is undoubtedly involved also, and since we're early in May the sample size is also quite small. But as the season progresses, and especially when Griffey returns and logs more games in center field, the trends should start to become clear and even more meaningful. Essentially, what we've seen so far in the first six weeks is that the Reds have had a combination of better defense and better luck defensively since Griffey's been out. When Griffey returns to center field, the defensive performance of the entire team will likely head south.

BTW, it's now been four games since I've updated the charts in the thread, and my plan right now is to update this again after Thursday night's game against Washington.

Cyclone792
05-11-2006, 04:57 PM
Given the weather, this isn't exactly the game I figured Griffey would return, however, since he's activated and apparently starting tonight I figured now is a good time to post an update on the pitching/defense numbers.

As far as the Griffey defensive effect in center field, we shall see where the defensive numbers go once Griffey logs more games out in center:


Overall Team Totals

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

04/10/06 6.33 4.55 1.67 7.83 2.50 3.13 3.00 28.13% .680 .333
04/20/06 5.81 4.92 1.79 7.40 3.00 2.47 2.62 23.43% .669 .343
04/30/06 4.85 4.96 1.67 6.88 3.05 2.25 2.24 22.92% .706 .302
05/10/06 4.48 4.79 1.54 6.68 2.92 2.29 2.32 23.69% .705 .303


Splits with Griffey (8 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

05/10/06 5.45 4.29 1.39 6.97 2.15 3.24 2.79 26.83% .689 .323


Splits without Griffey (26 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

05/10/06 4.18 4.95 1.58 6.59 3.16 2.09 2.17 22.63% .710 .297

Cooper
05-12-2006, 01:04 AM
That's great work.

Cyclone792
05-21-2006, 03:18 AM
Well, Griffey is back in center field, and the defensive numbers have trended in various directions, depending on the specific statistic. I won't tell anybody what's trended where in this paragraph, but I will encourage you to look at the text charts and the graphs and notice the trends for yourself :)


Overall Team Totals

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

04/10/06 6.33 4.55 1.67 7.83 2.50 3.13 3.00 28.13% .680 .333
04/20/06 5.81 4.92 1.79 7.40 3.00 2.47 2.62 23.43% .669 .343
04/30/06 4.85 4.96 1.67 6.88 3.05 2.25 2.24 22.92% .706 .302
05/10/06 4.48 4.79 1.54 6.68 2.92 2.29 2.32 23.69% .705 .303
05/20/06 4.53 4.66 1.45 6.78 2.93 2.31 2.21 22.17% .698 .310


Splits with Griffey (16 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

05/20/06 5.28 4.36 1.35 7.18 2.76 2.60 2.33 21.71% .674 .335


Splits without Griffey (27 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

05/20/06 4.06 4.85 1.52 6.53 3.04 2.15 2.13 22.49% .714 .294

Cyclone792
05-31-2006, 01:07 AM
Another 10 days of games are in the books, and there's some very fascinating trend shifts. I'll try to sum up a few that stand out to me:

The Good: DIPS ERA has improved, K/9 has improved, BB/9 has improved, HR/9 has really improved and our K/BB has improved.
The Bad and the Ugly: Our team defensive efficiency ratio and BABIP allowed has leveled off at lousy levels. For a team to have a defensive efficiency of .698 and a BABIP allowed of .310 through the month of May, there's got to be some serious defensive shortcomings in play. Most of us realize that the team defense is rather lousy, but this is stunning so far. In fact, considering that our strikeout, walk and home run ratios have all improved recently, it's amazing to take a look and see that none of that shows up in our team ERA, which tells us that the team defense has been performing particularly poor as of the last week or two.

Also, I'm not sure how many people are keeping tabs on these updates and interested in tracking how the pitching and defense progresses through the season, but if anyone has anymore ideas on data they'd like me to try to dig up regarding the pitching and defense, let me know and I'll see what I can do. IMO, it's pretty fascinating to track the trends of what is going on as we see it happen on the field, and we can see clear "blocks" of games where the pitching has performed admirably/poorly and likewise where the defense has performed admirably/poorly.


Overall Team Totals

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

04/10/06 6.33 4.55 1.67 7.83 2.50 3.13 3.00 28.13% .680 .333
04/20/06 5.81 4.92 1.79 7.40 3.00 2.47 2.62 23.43% .669 .343
04/30/06 4.85 4.96 1.67 6.88 3.05 2.25 2.24 22.92% .706 .302
05/10/06 4.48 4.79 1.54 6.68 2.92 2.29 2.32 23.69% .705 .303
05/20/06 4.53 4.66 1.45 6.78 2.93 2.31 2.21 22.17% .698 .310
05/30/06 4.54 4.47 1.35 6.88 2.83 2.43 2.26 23.06% .698 .310


Splits with Griffey (24 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

05/30/06 5.19 4.17 1.20 7.14 2.66 2.69 2.45 23.69% .679 .329


Splits without Griffey (28 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

05/30/06 3.97 4.74 1.47 6.65 2.98 2.23 2.09 22.44% .715 .293

Cyclone792
06-12-2006, 05:23 PM
It seems odd to say this after what we've seen the past three games, but as a whole since May 31st, our pitching and defense had been shaping up and excelling in most areas. The lacking in quality we saw the final three games against the Cubs wasn't enough to offset the remarkable play we saw during our eight game winning streak.

DER and BABIP both improved dramatically during this last stretch, with our DER jumping all the way up to .706, and we peaked at .707 for the season after Arroyo's win on June 8th. Our BABIP has dropped to .302, down eight points in less than two weeks, and we peaked all the way down to .300 after Arroyo's win on June 8th.
dERA has remained steady, but our ERA has dipped to 4.37, down from 4.54 as of May 31st. The improvement in DER and BABIP was the key player in the drop.
Again, despite the last few games, our HR/9, BB/9 and 2B/9 rates have continued to improve steadily. Let's hope this trend definitely continues, but if they all reverse, then it may get very ugly very quick.
The one alarming trend to watch out for is is our K/9 taking a nosedive these last few games. It had jumped up a bit to 6.88 after May, but now is all the way down to 6.56. We've been putting a lot of pressure on our defense lately to turn batted balls into outs, and while the defense responded during our winning streak, we've seen these last few games what can happen when K/9 dips and the defense plays poorly.



Overall Team Totals

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

04/10/06 6.33 4.55 1.67 7.83 2.50 3.13 3.00 28.13% .680 .333
04/20/06 5.81 4.92 1.79 7.40 3.00 2.47 2.62 23.43% .669 .343
04/30/06 4.85 4.96 1.67 6.88 3.05 2.25 2.24 22.92% .706 .302
05/10/06 4.48 4.79 1.54 6.68 2.92 2.29 2.32 23.69% .705 .303
05/20/06 4.53 4.66 1.45 6.78 2.93 2.31 2.21 22.17% .698 .310
05/30/06 4.54 4.47 1.35 6.88 2.83 2.43 2.26 23.06% .698 .310
06/11/06 4.37 4.46 1.31 6.56 2.69 2.44 2.10 21.91% .706 .302


Splits with Griffey (33 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

06/11/06 4.81 4.25 1.20 6.67 2.58 2.58 2.19 22.26% .696 .312


Splits without Griffey (30 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

06/11/06 3.87 4.70 1.44 6.43 2.81 2.29 1.98 21.48% .717 .290

dougdirt
06-12-2006, 07:12 PM
The part that I seemed the most interested in was the with and without Griffey splits.


Splits with Griffey (33 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

06/11/06 4.81 4.25 1.20 6.67 2.58 2.58 2.19 22.26% .696 .312


Splits without Griffey (30 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

06/11/06 3.87 4.70 1.44 6.43 2.81 2.29 1.98 21.48% .717 .290
While the team ERA is much lower without Griffey, the dERA is actually quite a bit higher. Looking at the numbers, it just seems that balls are being hit a bit more lucky when Griffey is in the game than when he isnt. The difference between Griffey in the game of ERA and dERA is -0.56. The difference when he is not in the game is +0.83. I am not seeing why there is such a dramatic difference there by looking at the numbers. Can anyone explain it a little better? I mean the BABIP is quite a bit different, but is .022 enough to cause such a difference?

Cyclone792
06-13-2006, 12:02 AM
The part that I seemed the most interested in was the with and without Griffey splits.


Splits with Griffey (33 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

06/11/06 4.81 4.25 1.20 6.67 2.58 2.58 2.19 22.26% .696 .312


Splits without Griffey (30 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

06/11/06 3.87 4.70 1.44 6.43 2.81 2.29 1.98 21.48% .717 .290
While the team ERA is much lower without Griffey, the dERA is actually quite a bit higher. Looking at the numbers, it just seems that balls are being hit a bit more lucky when Griffey is in the game than when he isnt. The difference between Griffey in the game of ERA and dERA is -0.56. The difference when he is not in the game is +0.83. I am not seeing why there is such a dramatic difference there by looking at the numbers. Can anyone explain it a little better? I mean the BABIP is quite a bit different, but is .022 enough to cause such a difference?

Team luck and BABIP luck is playing some role, that's for sure. How much of a role, I'm not too certain, but when Griffey's been out of the field defensively we've had a combination of better defensive play and better luck. When he's been on the field, we've had worse defensive play and worse luck.

Of course, there's other factors that could be in play here (such as who was playing defensively at other positions) that also have a say in matters, and that's part of the limitations when splitting up team stats for an individual defensive player. Coming into tonight, I think Griffey's zone rating was about 0.82 in center field while Freel's zone rating was 0.86. That's not a huge difference, but it's enough to be meaningful. Freel's zone rating compares well to most regular/pretty good center fielders while Griffey's is well below average.

I did take a quick peak at our ball in play figures to try to get a better idea what's going on. With Griffey in center field, we've had 923 balls in play defensively and have converted 635 into outs. When Griffey's not been in center field, we've had 787 balls in play and converted 559 into outs. Convert them into balls in play per 1,000, and you'll get the straight 290 and 312 hits allowed figures as we see in BABIP. There's been 312 balls in play out of 1,000 that fall in for hits with Griffey in center field compared to 290 balls in play out of 1,000 that fall in for hits with someone else in center field.

Let's think about this for a second. First, let's consider that during the course of the entire season the Reds will probably have to field approximately 4,400 balls in play.

Now for every 1,000 balls in play, the difference between 290 hits and 312 hits is 22 hits (important because that's 22 outs not made). Additionally, in 2005 the average base acquired per non-HR hit is about 1.27 so 22 non-HR hits is roughly 28 bases. However, we've also got 2B/9 figures to help clean this up. Applying the 2B/9 rates with/without Griffey, we find that per 1,000 balls in play we'll give up 79 doubles with Griffey and 74 doubles without Griffey. Throw in the occasional triple, and on average for every 1,000 balls in play with Griffey in center field, we've given up 22 more hits for roughly 30 total bases, all the while not making those 22 outs until after all those hits and bases were given up.

I'm not sure if that's a reasonable cause to explain such the drastic difference in ERA vs. DERA for the Griffey splits. Luck is involved as well as other team factors that have to be considered as limitations when comparing macro (team) to micro (Griffey). But giving up those extra hits/bases while not making those outs will definitely result in more runs allowed. It just goes to show you how some of the best fielding metrics to date have Griffey's defensive worth at 15-20 runs below average defensively over a full season.

SteelSD
06-13-2006, 01:27 AM
Team luck and BABIP luck is playing some role, that's for sure. How much of a role, I'm not too certain, but when Griffey's been out of the field defensively we've had a combination of better defensive play and better luck. When he's been on the field, we've had worse defensive play and worse luck.

Of course, there's other factors that could be in play here (such as who was playing defensively at other positions) that also have a say in matters, and that's part of the limitations when splitting up team stats for an individual defensive player. Coming into tonight, I think Griffey's zone rating was about 0.82 in center field while Freel's zone rating was 0.86. That's not a huge difference, but it's enough to be meaningful. Freel's zone rating compares well to most regular/pretty good center fielders while Griffey's is well below average.

I did take a quick peak at our ball in play figures to try to get a better idea what's going on. With Griffey in center field, we've had 923 balls in play defensively and have converted 635 into outs. When Griffey's not been in center field, we've had 787 balls in play and converted 559 into outs. Convert them into balls in play per 1,000, and you'll get the straight 290 and 312 hits allowed figures as we see in BABIP. There's been 312 balls in play out of 1,000 that fall in for hits with Griffey in center field compared to 290 balls in play out of 1,000 that fall in for hits with someone else in center field.

Let's think about this for a second. First, let's consider that during the course of the entire season the Reds will probably have to field approximately 4,400 balls in play.

Now for every 1,000 balls in play, the difference between 290 hits and 312 hits is 22 hits (important because that's 22 outs not made). Additionally, in 2005 the average base acquired per non-HR hit is about 1.27 so 22 non-HR hits is roughly 28 bases. However, we've also got 2B/9 figures to help clean this up. Applying the 2B/9 rates with/without Griffey, we find that per 1,000 balls in play we'll give up 79 doubles with Griffey and 74 doubles without Griffey. Throw in the occasional triple, and on average for every 1,000 balls in play with Griffey in center field, we've given up 22 more hits for roughly 30 total bases, all the while not making those 22 outs until after all those hits and bases were given up.

I'm not sure if that's a reasonable cause to explain such the drastic difference in ERA vs. DERA for the Griffey splits. Luck is involved as well as other team factors that have to be considered as limitations when comparing macro (team) to micro (Griffey). But giving up those extra hits/bases while not making those outs will definitely result in more runs allowed. It just goes to show you how some of the best fielding metrics to date have Griffey's defensive worth at 15-20 runs below average defensively over a full season.

Great analysis as usual, sir. Just for fun, I decided to pull up the Zone Rating of each Reds player (minimum 30 Games Played at a position) this season. I'll exclude Catchers because ZR isn't really designed for that.

Player- Position: Zone Rating (MLB rank) <+/- Differential between top ZR player>

Scott Hatteberg- 1B: .893 ZR (MLB rank- 2nd) <.036>
Brandon Phillips- 2B: .863 ZR (MLB rank- 4th) <.043>
Felipe Lopez- SS: .797 ZR (MLB rank- 22nd) <.117>
Edwin Encarnacion- 3B: .733 ZR (MLB rank- 22nd) <.126>
Adam Dunn- LF: .785 ZR (MLB rank- 21st) <.172>
Ken Griffey- CF: .823 ZR (MLB rank- 25th*) <.104>
Ryan Freel- CF: .867 ZR (MLB rank- 22nd*) <.065>
Austin Kearns- RF: .888 (MLB rank- 6th) <.035>

*Slotted as they would if played enough games to qualify per espn.com.

Overall Reds 2006 Defensive Efficiency: .699 (MLB rank- 16th)

Right now, the Reds are producing an average Defensive Efficiency by pairing some very good fielders with some mediocre-to-bad fielders. Of the players above, Dunn, Encarnacion, Lopez, and Griffey are producing nigh-unacceptable Zone Ratings because they're producing far fewer Outs on balls in play that we could reasonably expect them to turn into Outs.

Phillips, Hatteberg, and Kearns are producing a goodly portion of Outs in their respective zones and Freel is also doing ok as his differential versus the MLB leader is less than .075.

But knowing that, I'm not so sure how strongly Griffey's presence correlates with the Reds team Runs Allowed versus a non-Griffey team. He's an issue for sure, but I've always felt that a team with a good portion of mediocre-to-bad fielders is more susceptible to random UER "spikes". Does Griffey's presence mean worse defense versus the alternative? Yep. No doubt. But how much is that due to Griffey and how much of that is due to random fluxuation caused by the remainder of the squad?

There's the question and I'm not sure we'll be able to answer it to the point of proving direct causality even though we know that Griffey's defense doesn't help. doug did a wonderful job earlier in the thread of demonstrating where Doubles were falling with Grif and without, but we've got a sample size issue. And that sample size issue could involve pitcher quality as well as random fluxuations caused by bad fielders who'll be bad fielders more often so a direct causality link between dERA and ERA may be difficult to prove for an individual player.

I will say that the Reds have been on the lucky side of things as their Component ERA and DIPS rates are on the plus side of 100%. That's never good because it means the Reds have been a little lucky thusfar. That being said, it also projects volatility because a high ERC/high DIPS team staffed with a majority of mediocre-to-bad fielders is bound to come back to Earth sometime. And yeah, the manifestation of that is going to be frustrating games where defense could have really made a difference. Problem is that the high defense-independent rates also tell us that a bunch of offense is required so the Reds just can't chuck offense for defense without a massive overhaul on the pitching staff. My, how things change, huh? LOL.

On a side note, the Brewers are the only team in baseball to have ERC and DIPS rates both under 90%. That pitching staff is primed to make a charge so don't be surprised when it happens.

And if anyone wants to pursue Zone Rating, here's a GREAT discussion on the topic:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/what_is_zone_rating/

If you'll follow that link, there's one important item that, to the best of my knowledge, is incorrect- Outs acquired outside a player's zone of responsibility do count as ZR Outs but do not count as ZR Chances.

And, if you click on that link you'll find that one of the participants is Mitchel Litchman. He's the guy who was hired by the Cardinals due to his Ultimate Zone Rating defensive analysis. Interestingly enough, he shows up to defend UZR and even Nick Swisher's defensive ability. Swisher is actually posting the 2nd best LF ZR in baseball this season. Hmn.

pedro
06-13-2006, 02:45 AM
Really nice work Cyclone. :)

Cyclone792
06-13-2006, 04:29 PM
Excellent post and summary by Steel.

One thing I wanted to point out and throw in this thread was the actual zone grid chart from the link Steel provided. This gives people an opportunity to visualize zone rating on the entire field. Again, here's the link Steel provided for the zone rating explanation, followed by the visual chart of the zone rating grid.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/what_is_zone_rating/

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/szymborski/zrgrid.jpg

Cyclone792
06-21-2006, 01:11 AM
Our DER and BABIP went horribly in the wrong direction, with DER worsening by four points and BABIP worsening by five points.
dERA, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 and K/BB remained pretty steady.
Our ERA jumped up from 4.37 all the way up to 4.56, which was mostly a function of giving up hits (by the bullpen, I might add).
I ran a standard deviation for our runs allowed totals in each game, and the standard deviation so far this season is 3.33.
We have five shutouts this season.
We have given up one run six times this season.
We have given up two runs seven times this season.
We have given up three runs eight times this season.
We have given up four runs eight times this season.
We have given up five runs five times this season.
We have given up six runs seven times this season.
We have given up seven runs seven times this season.
We have given up eight runs nine times this season.
We have given up nine runs five times this season.
We have given up 10 or more runs four times this season.



Overall Team Totals

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

04/10/06 6.33 4.55 1.67 7.83 2.50 3.13 3.00 28.13% .680 .333
04/20/06 5.81 4.92 1.79 7.40 3.00 2.47 2.62 23.43% .669 .343
04/30/06 4.85 4.96 1.67 6.88 3.05 2.25 2.24 22.92% .706 .302
05/10/06 4.48 4.79 1.54 6.68 2.92 2.29 2.32 23.69% .705 .303
05/20/06 4.53 4.66 1.45 6.78 2.93 2.31 2.21 22.17% .698 .310
05/30/06 4.54 4.47 1.35 6.88 2.83 2.43 2.26 23.06% .698 .310
06/11/06 4.37 4.46 1.31 6.56 2.69 2.44 2.10 21.91% .706 .302
06/20/06 4.56 4.48 1.33 6.57 2.70 2.43 2.11 21.72% .702 .307


Splits with Griffey (41 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

06/20/06 5.05 4.33 1.26 6.67 2.63 2.53 2.20 21.88% .691 .319


Splits without Griffey (30 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

06/20/06 3.87 4.70 1.44 6.43 2.81 2.29 1.98 21.48% .717 .290

http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/3489/deraera6202wj.jpg

http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/9941/babipder6207nn.jpg

http://img76.imageshack.us/img76/7083/k96200pd.jpg

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/4017/hr96205hw.jpg

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/5990/bb96207mt.jpg

http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/1881/2b96208hk.jpg

http://img76.imageshack.us/img76/7654/2bhit6203og.jpg

Cyclone792
06-21-2006, 01:38 AM
I'm going to take this update one step further here and take a look at the games Arroyo and Harang have started. Together, they have started 30 of our 71 games (42 percent of all starts).

We have five shutouts this season. Two have been started by Harang, and one by Arroyo (60 percent).
We have given up one run six times this season. Three have been started by Arroyo, and two by Harang (83 percent).
We have given up two runs seven times this season. Two have been started by Arroyo, and zero by Harang (29 percent).
We have given up three runs eight times this season. Two have been started by Harang, and one by Arroyo (38 percent).
We have given up four runs eight times this season. Two have been started by Arroyo, and one by Harang (38 percent).
We have given up five runs five times this season. Two have been started by Arroyo (40 percent).
We have given up six runs seven times this season. Two have been started by Arroyo, and two by Harang (57 percent).
We have given up seven runs seven times this season. One has been started by Arroyo, and one by Harang (29 percent).
We have given up eight runs nine times this season. Two have been started by Harang, and one by Arroyo (33 percent).
We have given up nine runs five times this season. Two have been started by Harang, and zero by Arroyo (40 percent).
We have given up 10 or more runs four times this season. One has been started by Harang, and zero by Arroyo (25 percent).

Let's put the above together in groups now ...

The Reds have allowed one run or less 11 times, and eight of those games have been starts by Arroyo or Harang (four by each). That's 72.7 percent.
The Reds have allowed four runs or less 26 times, and 16 of those games have been starts by Arroyo or Harang (nine by Arroyo, seven by Harang). That's 61.5 percent.
The Reds have allowed seven runs or more 25 times, and eight of those games have been starts by Arroyo or Harang (two by Arroyo, six by Harang). That's 32 percent.

Cyclone792
07-16-2006, 06:58 PM
It's been several weeks since I've posted an update, but I haven't forgotten about this project so it's time to post another update. With lots of faces on our pitching staff arriving and departing in recent weeks, it's interesting to see how the pitching staff has fared overall.

One addition I made to the below team totals chart are the pitching splits for starters vs. relievers. This will provide a great opportunity for us to measure the effectiveness of our new bullpen down the stretch with the recent additions of Guardado, Majewski and Bray.

As far as the overall pitching and defense, every single category went downhill since the last update just over three weeks ago. Our pitchers are striking out less batters, walking more batters, giving up slightly more home runs, giving up more doubles and just giving up more runs as shown by our sharp rise in ERA. On the fielding side, our BABIP shot up while our DER shot down, both bad signs. Our dERA also went up from 4.48 to 4.53, which is interesting when also noticing that our ERA went way up from 4.56 to 4.72.


Overall Team Totals

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

04/10/06 6.33 4.55 1.67 7.83 2.50 3.13 3.00 28.13% .680 .333
04/20/06 5.81 4.92 1.79 7.40 3.00 2.47 2.62 23.43% .669 .343
04/30/06 4.85 4.96 1.67 6.88 3.05 2.25 2.24 22.92% .706 .302
05/10/06 4.48 4.79 1.54 6.68 2.92 2.29 2.32 23.69% .705 .303
05/20/06 4.53 4.66 1.45 6.78 2.93 2.31 2.21 22.17% .698 .310
05/30/06 4.54 4.47 1.35 6.88 2.83 2.43 2.26 23.06% .698 .310
06/11/06 4.37 4.46 1.31 6.56 2.69 2.44 2.10 21.91% .706 .302
06/20/06 4.56 4.48 1.33 6.57 2.70 2.43 2.11 21.72% .702 .307
07/16/06 4.72 4.53 1.34 6.44 2.75 2.34 2.21 22.20% .696 .313


Splits with Griffey (58 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

07/16/06 5.08 4.36 1.23 6.48 2.72 2.38 2.31 22.65% .688 .322


Splits without Griffey (35 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

07/16/06 4.10 4.83 1.53 6.37 2.80 2.27 2.04 21.36% .711 .296


Starting and Relief Splits

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

07/16/06 Starters 4.49 4.29 1.24 6.60 2.49 2.65
07/16/06 Relievers 5.20 5.05 1.57 6.11 3.32 1.84

Cyclone792
07-30-2006, 06:57 PM
In the last two weeks since the July 16th update, there's been some slight changes, but nothing drastic.

Our team ERA has remained steady at 4.72, but our DIPS ERA has dropped slightly from 4.53 to 4.47. That entire drop can be pinned down on an improvement in our K/9 rate as it's jumped up from 6.44 to 6.59. Our BB/9 rate remained steady at 2.75 so the improvement in K/9 also pushed our K/BB up from 2.34 to 2.40. Our HR/9 rate saw a slight drop, but nothing major.

Split the starters and relief corps up, however, and we've got some more changes. In short, our starting pitching has remained steady with a similar DIPS ERA - the ERA spike is mostly the result of hits allowed - but our bullpen has shown improvements across the board.

Defensively, our DER (defensive efficiency ratio) saw a neglible increase, and we still reside in the bottom third of MLB in overall defensive efficiency.

Here's the full charts ...


Overall Team Totals

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

04/10/06 6.33 4.55 1.67 7.83 2.50 3.13 3.00 28.13% .680 .333
04/20/06 5.81 4.92 1.79 7.40 3.00 2.47 2.62 23.43% .669 .343
04/30/06 4.85 4.96 1.67 6.88 3.05 2.25 2.24 22.92% .706 .302
05/10/06 4.48 4.79 1.54 6.68 2.92 2.29 2.32 23.69% .705 .303
05/20/06 4.53 4.66 1.45 6.78 2.93 2.31 2.21 22.17% .698 .310
05/30/06 4.54 4.47 1.35 6.88 2.83 2.43 2.26 23.06% .698 .310
06/11/06 4.37 4.46 1.31 6.56 2.69 2.44 2.10 21.91% .706 .302
06/20/06 4.56 4.48 1.33 6.57 2.70 2.43 2.11 21.72% .702 .307
07/16/06 4.72 4.53 1.34 6.44 2.75 2.34 2.21 22.20% .696 .313
07/30/06 4.72 4.47 1.32 6.59 2.75 2.40 2.18 22.15% .697 .312


Splits with Griffey (69 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

07/30/06 5.05 4.30 1.20 6.65 2.76 2.41 2.23 22.25% .689 .320


Splits without Griffey (36 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

07/30/06 4.09 4.79 1.54 6.46 2.71 2.38 2.09 21.92% .711 .295


Starting and Relief Splits

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

07/16/06 Starters 4.49 4.29 1.24 6.60 2.49 2.65
07/30/06 Starters 4.63 4.30 1.25 6.73 2.54 2.65

07/16/06 Relievers 5.20 5.05 1.57 6.11 3.32 1.84
07/30/06 Relievers 4.91 4.83 1.45 6.30 3.21 1.96

redsrule2500
07-30-2006, 09:08 PM
Wow.

Ltlabner
07-30-2006, 09:46 PM
In the last two weeks since the July 16th update, there's been some slight changes, but nothing drastic.

Our team ERA has remained steady at 4.72, but our DIPS ERA has dropped slightly from 4.53 to 4.47. That entire drop can be pinned down on an improvement in our K/9 rate as it's jumped up from 6.44 to 6.59. Our BB/9 rate remained steady at 2.75 so the improvement in K/9 also pushed our K/BB up from 2.34 to 2.40. Our HR/9 rate saw a slight drop, but nothing major.

Split the starters and relief corps up, however, and we've got some more changes. In short, our starting pitching has remained steady with a similar DIPS ERA - the ERA spike is mostly the result of hits allowed - but our bullpen has shown improvements across the board.

Defensively, our DER (defensive efficiency ratio) saw a neglible increase, and we still reside in the bottom third of MLB in overall defensive efficiency.

So our pitchers are getting more strikes and giving up slightly less home runs. The bull pen is improving in several different areas. Encouraging. Will it be enough and will it last till the end?

Is the negliable improvement to defense a result of continuing to have errors at the same rate as previously? Or is it because we've reduced errors but more balls are making it into the outfield?

Cyclone792
07-30-2006, 10:03 PM
So our pitchers are getting more strikes and giving up slightly less home runs. The bull pen is improving in several different areas. Encouraging. Will it be enough and will it last till the end?

Is the negliable improvement to defense a result of continuing to have errors at the same rate as previously? Or is it because we've reduced errors but more balls are making it into the outfield?

Our K/9 rate had been in a free fall until the past two weeks. Throughout April and May we were up near a 7 K/9, but had fallen all the way down to 6.44 by mid July. We've made some ground recently, but we're still lower than we were earlier in the season. I'd like to see a big rebound and for us to finish near 7 in K/9, but I'm not sure it can happen. Fortunately, over that same time period both our BB/9 rates and HR/9 rates have also been falling. If we can get that K/9 rate to rebound back near the 7 range while maintaining our current HR/9 and BB/9 rates, we'll start to see some shutdown performances by the staff.

Defensively, the neglible improvement is mostly random variance. We've had two periods where we've played very well defensively, 1) in late April and early May when Griffey was on the DL and Freel played center field (no surprise there), and 2) in early June when a period of BABIP hit-luck likely found a home here for about two weeks.

Cyclone792
08-14-2006, 05:53 PM
Here's a short'n sweet update through games played on August 14th, 2006 ...

Our K rates have continued to improve as our K/9 is up to 6.67 now, which is the highest it's been since the end of May. Our walk rates and home run rates, however, have taken a horrible turn in the wrong direction. Over the past two weeks, we have walked far too many guys and given up far too many home runs, and those are trends that are going to have to reverse themselves, or in the very least, stop getting worse.

Also, our defense independent bullpen numbers (dERA, K/9, BB/9 and HR/9) have leveled off during the past two weeks. Our improvement in ERA is likely stemming directly from a large percentage of batted balls being hit right at defenders.

Defensively, our BABIP and defensive efficiency both went in the wrong directions.

I love the improving K rates, but hopefully as we head into the Cardinals series our pitching staff can reverse our bad trends by not issuing as many walks and allowing fewer long, deep drives.



Overall Team Totals

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

04/10/06 6.33 4.55 1.67 7.83 2.50 3.13 3.00 28.13% .680 .333
04/20/06 5.81 4.92 1.79 7.40 3.00 2.47 2.62 23.43% .669 .343
04/30/06 4.85 4.96 1.67 6.88 3.05 2.25 2.24 22.92% .706 .302
05/10/06 4.48 4.79 1.54 6.68 2.92 2.29 2.32 23.69% .705 .303
05/20/06 4.53 4.66 1.45 6.78 2.93 2.31 2.21 22.17% .698 .310
05/30/06 4.54 4.47 1.35 6.88 2.83 2.43 2.26 23.06% .698 .310
06/11/06 4.37 4.46 1.31 6.56 2.69 2.44 2.10 21.91% .706 .302
06/20/06 4.56 4.48 1.33 6.57 2.70 2.43 2.11 21.72% .702 .307
07/16/06 4.72 4.53 1.34 6.44 2.75 2.34 2.21 22.20% .696 .313
07/30/06 4.72 4.47 1.32 6.59 2.75 2.40 2.18 22.15% .697 .312
08/14/06 4.75 4.55 1.37 6.67 2.86 2.33 2.15 21.46% .693 .315


Splits with Griffey (82 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

07/30/06 5.03 4.46 1.30 6.75 2.92 2.31 2.17 21.28% .686 .323


Splits without Griffey (36 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

07/30/06 4.09 4.79 1.54 6.46 2.71 2.38 2.09 21.92% .711 .295


Starting and Relief Splits

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

07/16/06 Starters 4.49 4.29 1.24 6.60 2.49 2.65
07/30/06 Starters 4.63 4.30 1.25 6.73 2.54 2.65
08/14/06 Starters 4.74 4.40 1.34 6.82 2.61 2.61

07/16/06 Relievers 5.20 5.05 1.57 6.11 3.32 1.84
07/30/06 Relievers 4.91 4.83 1.45 6.30 3.21 1.96
08/14/06 Relievers 4.80 4.86 1.45 6.36 3.38 1.88

Cyclone792
09-12-2006, 09:05 PM
Here's some updated pitching charts ...


Overall Team Totals

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

04/10/06 6.33 4.55 1.67 7.83 2.50 3.13 3.00 28.13% .680 .333
04/20/06 5.81 4.92 1.79 7.40 3.00 2.47 2.62 23.43% .669 .343
04/30/06 4.85 4.96 1.67 6.88 3.05 2.25 2.24 22.92% .706 .302
05/10/06 4.48 4.79 1.54 6.68 2.92 2.29 2.32 23.69% .705 .303
05/20/06 4.53 4.66 1.45 6.78 2.93 2.31 2.21 22.17% .698 .310
05/30/06 4.54 4.47 1.35 6.88 2.83 2.43 2.26 23.06% .698 .310
06/11/06 4.37 4.46 1.31 6.56 2.69 2.44 2.10 21.91% .706 .302
06/20/06 4.56 4.48 1.33 6.57 2.70 2.43 2.11 21.72% .702 .307
07/16/06 4.72 4.53 1.34 6.44 2.75 2.34 2.21 22.20% .696 .313
07/30/06 4.72 4.47 1.32 6.59 2.75 2.40 2.18 22.15% .697 .312
08/14/06 4.75 4.55 1.37 6.67 2.86 2.33 2.15 21.46% .693 .315
09/11/06 4.59 4.55 1.35 6.55 2.87 2.28 2.07 21.03% .698 .310


Splits with Griffey (100 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

09/11/06 4.93 4.55 1.31 6.57 3.06 2.15 2.14 21.09% .689 .320


Splits without Griffey (43 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

09/11/06 3.72 4.58 1.43 6.47 2.44 2.66 1.89 20.84% .722 .286


Starting and Relief Splits

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

07/16/06 Starters 4.49 4.29 1.24 6.60 2.49 2.65
07/30/06 Starters 4.63 4.30 1.25 6.73 2.54 2.65
08/14/06 Starters 4.74 4.40 1.34 6.82 2.61 2.61
09/11/06 Starters 4.58 4.41 1.32 6.66 2.56 2.60

07/16/06 Relievers 5.20 5.05 1.57 6.11 3.32 1.84
07/30/06 Relievers 4.91 4.83 1.45 6.30 3.21 1.96
08/14/06 Relievers 4.80 4.86 1.45 6.36 3.38 1.88
09/11/06 Relievers 4.61 4.86 1.40 6.31 3.54 1.78

Griffey's injury actually allows us to continue pumping up the sample size data for team pitching/defensive statistics without him in center field. Three things jump out at me when I compare the games he starts in center field compared to the games he doesn't start in center field ...

Our team DER is .722 when he doesn't start in center field vs. a team DER of .689 when he does start in center field.
Our team BABIP is .286 when he doesn't start in center field vs. a team BABIP of .320 when he does start in center field.
Our team 2B/9 allowed is 1.89 when he doesn't start in center field vs. a team 2B/9 allowed of 2.14 when he does start in center field.

Now, it's difficult to draw solid conclusions using macro vs. micro, but this does give us some idea on the quality of Griffey's defense. Basically, what all the above means is that BP's fielding runs above average statistic is likely pretty darn accurate when it claims that Griffey's defensive value in center field is -22 runs above average per 162 games since the beginning of 2005. Yikes!

Additionally, because I had a passing interest, I split out the infamous 10-game west coast road trip's pitching/defensive numbers, and here's the damages ...


10-Game West Coast Trip

ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP
4.45 4.96 1.21 5.26 3.94 1.33 2.02 13.70% .690 .323

On the west coast swing, our pitchers apparently forgot how to throw strikes as our K/9 took a serious nosedive, but our BB/9 had a massive spike. Mixed in with a high BABIP, and we just gave up a ton of baserunners, and we should probably consider ourselves fortunate to have only allowed a 4.45 ERA during those 10 games. Of course, we did only manage two wins so there really wasn't much to consider fortunate to begin with.

redsrule2500
09-12-2006, 11:32 PM
Are you getting paid for this stuff?!

Cooper
09-13-2006, 12:03 PM
Wow, that's such good analysis. Griffey's defense is really hurting the team...granted this may be a statistical aberration, but the evidence is starting to mount. Cyclone --your work may be the post(s) of the year. This post has really told a story about the weaknesses of the team.

Highlifeman21
09-14-2006, 11:09 AM
Are you getting paid for this stuff?!

He just has a lot of free time on his hands.

It's a 4 horse race for RedsZone stat man of the year between Cyclone, Steed, M2 and WoY. I smell a photo finish.


:KoolAid:

KittyDuran
09-14-2006, 07:24 PM
Boy, do I have a headache....;)

Cyclone792
09-14-2006, 07:31 PM
Well, considering that I've compiled most of the game-by-game data while at work, I guess you could sort of say that I'm getting paid for it. ;)

It doesn't take much time at all to update everything, though. One minute a day to update the game-by-game data, then maybe five minutes tops to sort it out, update the charts and toss another post up. That's it. :)

KYRedsFan
09-14-2006, 10:46 PM
Wow, nice stuff. I leave for a while, and when I come back the site looks like something out of NASA.

Cyclone792
10-03-2006, 05:34 PM
And now for the final end of season charts ...


Overall Team Totals

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

04/10/06 6.33 4.55 1.67 7.83 2.50 3.13 3.00 28.13% .680 .333
04/20/06 5.81 4.92 1.79 7.40 3.00 2.47 2.62 23.43% .669 .343
04/30/06 4.85 4.96 1.67 6.88 3.05 2.25 2.24 22.92% .706 .302
05/10/06 4.48 4.79 1.54 6.68 2.92 2.29 2.32 23.69% .705 .303
05/20/06 4.53 4.66 1.45 6.78 2.93 2.31 2.21 22.17% .698 .310
05/30/06 4.54 4.47 1.35 6.88 2.83 2.43 2.26 23.06% .698 .310
06/11/06 4.37 4.46 1.31 6.56 2.69 2.44 2.10 21.91% .706 .302
06/20/06 4.56 4.48 1.33 6.57 2.70 2.43 2.11 21.72% .702 .307
07/16/06 4.72 4.53 1.34 6.44 2.75 2.34 2.21 22.20% .696 .313
07/30/06 4.72 4.47 1.32 6.59 2.75 2.40 2.18 22.15% .697 .312
08/14/06 4.75 4.55 1.37 6.67 2.86 2.33 2.15 21.46% .693 .315
09/11/06 4.59 4.55 1.35 6.55 2.87 2.28 2.07 21.03% .698 .310
10/01/06 4.53 4.53 1.33 6.56 2.89 2.27 2.05 20.88% .699 .310


Splits with Griffey (100 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

10/01/06 4.93 4.55 1.31 6.57 3.06 2.15 2.14 21.09% .689 .320


Splits without Griffey (62 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

10/01/06 3.84 4.51 1.35 6.51 2.60 2.50 1.89 20.47% .716 .292


Starting and Relief Splits

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB

07/16/06 Starters 4.49 4.29 1.24 6.60 2.49 2.65
07/30/06 Starters 4.63 4.30 1.25 6.73 2.54 2.65
08/14/06 Starters 4.74 4.40 1.34 6.82 2.61 2.61
09/11/06 Starters 4.58 4.41 1.32 6.66 2.56 2.60
10/01/06 Starters 4.58 4.43 1.31 6.61 2.64 2.50

07/16/06 Relievers 5.20 5.05 1.57 6.11 3.32 1.84
07/30/06 Relievers 4.91 4.83 1.45 6.30 3.21 1.96
08/14/06 Relievers 4.80 4.86 1.45 6.36 3.38 1.88
09/11/06 Relievers 4.61 4.86 1.40 6.31 3.54 1.78
10/01/06 Relievers 4.44 4.74 1.36 6.44 3.40 1.89

The very first thing that jumped out at me was the team ERA matching up exactly with the team DIPS ERA by the end of the season, with both figures at 4.53. That's somewhat remarkable considering we were 18th in the majors with a .699 defensive efficiency rating, including allowing an opponent BABIP of .310.

The bullpen definitely did improve overall during the second half of the season, but four relievers are primarily the causes for that improvement ...

David Weathers posted a 1.64 ERA in 33 innings after the All-Star Break.
Eddie Guardado posted a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings after the All-Star Break.
Scott Schoeneweis posted a 0.63 ERA in 14.1 innings after the All-Star Break.
Todd Coffey posted a 3.66 ERA in 32 innings after the All-Star Break.
The four above combined for a 2.14 ERA in 92.1 innings of relief after the All-Star Break.

Griffey's injuries this season afforded the Reds the opportunity to break out some substantial stat splits for the team's defense with and without him in center field. Knowing what we do about Griffey's poor individual defensive statistics - such as posting negative runs above average in several fielding models and ranking very low in zone rating - the macro/micro level provides an opportunity to help confirm or possibly contradict what we know about Griffey's individual defensive numbers.

Here's the highlights ...

The team DIPS ERA was virtually identical in both splits - 4.55 with Griffey vs. 4.51 without Griffey - but our team ERA itself was a full run higher with Griffey in center field (4.93 vs. 3.84).
The team defensive efficiency rating (DER) was .716 without Griffey compared to .689 with Griffey.
The team BABIP allowed was .292 without Griffey compared to .320 with Griffey.
The team 2B/9 rate allowed was 1.89 without Griffey compared to 2.14 with Griffey.

Now is Griffey entirely responsible for those drastic differences in team defensive stats? Most likely not, but they are very supportive of what Griffey's individual defensive statistics suggest, and that is Griffey is simply not getting the job done defensively in center field. It's costing the team in hits allowed, including doubles, and it's costing the team in runs which ultimately start showing up in the standings as costing the team a few wins.

Finally, here's game splits with and without Arroyo/Harang starting ...


Splits with Arroyo/Harang Starting

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

10/01/06 3.83 4.14 1.17 7.13 2.62 2.72 1.97 .703 .305


Splits without Arroyo/Harang Starting

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 DER BABIP

10/01/06 5.04 4.80 1.42 6.13 3.11 1.97 2.10 .694 .314

This is not simply extracting Arroyo/Harang's pitching lines from the team's pitching lines. Instead, these are the splits with Arroyo/Harang games started extracted as a whole from the overall team performance, thus any relief pitching effort given in an Arroyo/Harang start is counted in the stat split with Arroyo/Harang starting.

The purpose of this is to create an idea what type of run prevention to expect in any given start by Arroyo and Harang and also what type of run prevention to expect in any given start by everybody else on the 2006 Reds. The ERA in games started by those two is over a full run lower, the DIPS ERA is around 2/3 of a run lower, strikeout rates much higher, walk rates much lower, home run rates much lower, etc.

The total number of games is vital here. The Reds were fortunate enough to receive 70 combined starts from Arroyo and Harang this season, however, that also meant that 92 starts went to somebody else. If the Reds could acquire another similar pitcher to Arroyo and Harang, then it'd be hopeful to receive 100+ starts from higher caliber pitching with only ~60 starts from subpar starting pitching.

There's more things I can do with the data I tracked during this season, but I wanted to update all the factors that I originally set out to track when I first created this project back in early May.

Kc61
10-03-2006, 09:20 PM
Excellent analysis. Thank you.

Highlifeman21
10-03-2006, 11:01 PM
So to paraphrase all this in a nutshell, Griffey as the everyday CF in 2007 = bad.

Unfortunately, Griffey is recently on record saying that he feels that he's not hurting the team. This excellent research scoffs at Griffey's opinion. My question to the RedsZone faithful is simply this, is there anyone who really thinks that Griffey contributes to the Reds as the everyday CF, or is he a dish best served at either LF (preferably) or RF?

My vote is LF, but unfortunately unless we get a strong willed manager, Frank Robinson, I don't see Griffey being told he's no longer our everyday CF. If Robinson can do it with Soriano, I see no reason he can't do it with Griffey.

That being said, replace Narron, and maybe we'll finally get our best players on the field, in the positions they should rightfully play. Junior in LF, Dunn at 1B.