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M2
05-03-2006, 10:22 AM
If I could pick a night for Dave Williams' best start of the year, it would be this coming Sunday.

The game itself isn't anything momentous, but the Arizona Diamondbacks play in the weakest division in baseball. Every team there believes it's a contender ... and when you're only one game out of first (behind the Colorado Rockies), who's to tell you you're wrong?

Arizona's in a weird spot because it's got young players like Stephen Drew, Carlos Quentin and Chris Young almost ready for the majors and a good bullpen. Yet it has starting pitching woes as large as the Reds, with three starters carrying an ERA over 6.00. Terry Mulholland is also the only lefty on the entire pitching staff.

If Dave Williams can have a big game against the Snakes then that's a team that just might covet his services. Two guys worth pursuing on the franchise are Brandon Medders, a young reliever, and Scott Hairston, a former hot prospect now lost in the shuffle. I think Medders could be a real sleeper as a bullpen fix. Hairston wouldn't have a specific spot on the team at the moment, but he might make for nice trade bait to a club in need of a capable young stick closer to the trading deadling.

Anyway, if there's one team Dave Williams needs to impress, it's the D-Backs.

TRF
05-03-2006, 10:37 AM
ugh.

Just the thought that he might impress makes me think he might impress Narron, or worse Krivsky. But I'll take it a step further. I think he's auditioning in front of that whole division.

Let the bidding begin. :)

M2
05-03-2006, 10:51 AM
Just the thought that he might impress makes me think he might impress Narron, or worse Krivsky. But I'll take it a step further. I think he's auditioning in front of that whole division.

Hopefully they have the good sense to do unto others then split.

Heath
05-03-2006, 10:57 AM
Actually, didn't Dave Williams just impress the president of the Dave Williams Fan Club?

:D

Dave Williams in Colorado...... :yikes:

Johnny Footstool
05-03-2006, 11:03 AM
Crap.

I read the title of this thread ("Dave Williams' next start") and thought the next words would be "...will be his last in a Reds uniform."

Wishful thinking, I guess.

TRF
05-03-2006, 11:18 AM
Kriv has to be thinking he can flip him for something... anything, or I think he'd have removed him from at least the rotation by now.

How many time does Matt Belisle have to bail him out before someone realizes that maybe the wrong guy is starting?

redsmetz
05-03-2006, 11:27 AM
ugh.

Just the thought that he might impress makes me think he might impress Narron, or worse Krivsky. But I'll take it a step further. I think he's auditioning in front of that whole division.

Let the bidding begin. :)

This makes absolutely no sense to me, much the same way the desire to see Eric Milton fail makes no sense to me. If either of these guys can find a way to be successful, then I want that. As long as they're on my team, I want them to do well, period.

redsmetz
05-03-2006, 11:29 AM
How many time does Matt Belisle have to bail him out before someone realizes that maybe the wrong guy is starting?

Boy, yeah, Matt sure bailed him out yesterday.

Now granted, the Dave Williams we've seen thus far dodged a bullet yesterday, but he dodged it nonetheless. When he's out there, I want him to do well because it leads to another tick in the old W column.

M2
05-03-2006, 11:37 AM
This makes absolutely no sense to me, much the same way the desire to see Eric Milton fail makes no sense to me. If either of these guys can find a way to be successful, then I want that. As long as they're on my team, I want them to do well, period.

Nobody wants any Reds pitchers to fail, but there has to be a recognition that certain guys are going to fail more often than not and that it would better to offload that monkey onto someone else's back.

oneupper
05-03-2006, 11:44 AM
Isn't Bank One a hitters park?

redsmetz
05-03-2006, 12:02 PM
Nobody wants any Reds pitchers to fail, but there has to be a recognition that certain guys are going to fail more often than not and that it would better to offload that monkey onto someone else's back.

The post I was responding to feared that Williams might impress and if Williams is impressing, then he's succeeding. To not want him to impress is to what him to fail.

I share the belief that Danno made an awful trade, but as long as Williams is on the roster, I want him to pitch well. If we can get something for him, great, but while he's hear (to be redundant :) ), I hope he succeeds like he did yesterday.

M2
05-03-2006, 12:12 PM
The post I was responding to feared that Williams might impress and if Williams is impressing, then he's succeeding. To not want him to impress is to what him to fail.

The way I read it, the desire TRF had was for the Reds front office not to take one good start to heart and begin thinking Williams is something he isn't.

Caveat Emperor
05-03-2006, 12:55 PM
Isn't Bank One a hitters park?

David Williams could pitch in Yellowstone and turn it into a hitters park.

As far as trading him -- I'm lukewarm on dealing him until the Reds figure out what Eric Milton and Paul Wilson are going to be when they come off the DL and/or if the Reds decide to make a deal for starting pitching.

As bad as Williams is, he's the best of what's around -- which is as much a comment on the Reds farm system as it is on Dave Williams awfulness.

Plus, I just don't think anyone is dumb enough to trade for him -- other than if Doug Melvin falls into a coma and Dan O'Brien is put in charge of Milwaukee. Then, I'd consider offering Williams for Prince Fielder and see if he bites. I mean, who could resist the opportunity to trade a slow first baseman for a #1 starter.

Johnny Footstool
05-03-2006, 01:05 PM
The post I was responding to feared that Williams might impress and if Williams is impressing, then he's succeeding. To not want him to impress is to what him to fail.


The fear is that one good start will bolster management's confidence in Williams to the point that they will be willing to suffer through 4 or 5 more disasters in hopes that he can "regain his form".

That clearly hurts the team in the long run.

TRF
05-03-2006, 01:28 PM
The post I was responding to feared that Williams might impress and if Williams is impressing, then he's succeeding. To not want him to impress is to what him to fail.

I share the belief that Danno made an awful trade, but as long as Williams is on the roster, I want him to pitch well. If we can get something for him, great, but while he's hear (to be redundant :) ), I hope he succeeds like he did yesterday.

You think i want Williams to be a bad pitcher? Or Milton for that matter? Ridiculous. They are bad pitchers. I want Narron and Kriv to recognize that and replace them with better pitchers. Belisle is a better pitcher than Dave Williams. In fact he's likely better than Eric Milton too. I'd like some pitchers better than Matt Belisle too, thank you.

I'd love it if Dave Williams became something he is not, but if you actually watched the game, you saw how many runners he put on. And he never faced Pujols or Rolen. Edmonds came in late. Against their "A" team, he likely would have given up at least 5 runs. He got lucky. And with Claussen struggling, and Ramirez still a relative unknown as far as how he'll continue to handle this season, The known suckitude quantities need to be thinned out. That means Williams. His fastball is slow and straight, and he has no out pitch.

redsmetz
05-03-2006, 01:33 PM
You think i want Williams to be a bad pitcher? Or Milton for that matter? Ridiculous. They are bad pitchers. I want Narron and Kriv to recognize that and replace them with better pitchers. Belisle is a better pitcher than Dave Williams. In fact he's likely better than Eric Milton too. I'd like some pitchers better than Matt Belisle too, thank you.

I'd love it if Dave Williams became something he is not, but if you actually watched the game, you saw how many runners he put on. And he never faced Pujols or Rolen. Edmonds came in late. Against their "A" team, he likely would have given up at least 5 runs. He got lucky. And with Claussen struggling, and Ramirez still a relative unknown as far as how he'll continue to handle this season, The known suckitude quantities need to be thinned out. That means Williams. His fastball is slow and straight, and he has no out pitch.

I listened to the game and I said very plainly he dodged a bullet. That said, everytime we run him out there, if bullets must be dodged, I want them dodged. But there are too many people on this board who seem to want both of these guys to fail. Fail they may, but when they're out there, I'm pulling for them not to. They're the hand we've been dealt by the previous regime, and until we find something better, I want them to pitch well enough to win.

TRF
05-03-2006, 01:37 PM
I don't WANT him to fail.

I know he will. badly.

BRM
05-03-2006, 01:40 PM
I don't WANT him to fail.

I know he will. badly.

I think some folks confuse predicting a player's failure with hoping for it. Just because I think Williams and Milton will continue to suck doesn't mean I want them to.

redsmetz
05-03-2006, 01:52 PM
TRF wrote:


But I'll take it a step further. I think he's auditioning in front of that
whole division.

In going back and re-reading the thread, I have to acknowledge that you weren't hoping for his failure, per se, rather you were clearly expressing your worry that the Reds might want to keep him. The statement quoted above is what set me straight.

Sorry for the confusion in this case.

smith288
05-03-2006, 02:24 PM
Isn't Bank One a hitters park?
I dont believe so...I thought center field was cavernous but I could be thinking of some other place.

BTW...B.O.B. is no more. Its Chase Field due to Chase buying B.O.

backbencher
05-03-2006, 04:32 PM
The fear is that one good start will bolster management's confidence in Williams to the point that they will be willing to suffer through 4 or 5 more disasters in hopes that he can "regain his form".

That clearly hurts the team in the long run.

Doesn't Krivsky deserve the benefit of the doubt?

KronoRed
05-03-2006, 04:33 PM
Chase is a terrible name for a stadium, it shall always be the airport hanger to me ;)

TRF
05-03-2006, 04:53 PM
Doesn't Krivsky deserve the benefit of the doubt?

No.

Signing Hatte was a bad move IMO, as he is well, let's say not great defensively. Keepin RA was a good thing since he seems to have been humbled by the lack of interest the entire planet had in him, but that was a DanO move. Jerking Dunn to and fro when it comes to what position he was playing... bad. Getting Cody Ross? pointless.

Some of his minor league moves have been a little strange at first, but seem to be reaping rewards such as having Dumatrait repeat AA, and moving Medlock to the pen at AA, in essence fast tracking Medlock.

Krivsky has a bit of a logjam at 2B with 3 guys on the major league roster, and 2 more at AAA.

But looking at Williams last start, if he has any thoughts about him other than who can he pawn this guy off on, then he may just be insane. So, I'm with M2. Hopefully Williams has a great night Sunday, and come the following monday or tuesday he's a Rockie, or a Giant, or a Dodger, or even a Seibu Lion.

redsmetz
05-03-2006, 05:49 PM
Signing Hatte was a bad move IMO, as he is well, let's say not great defensively.

I know this disagreement will be ongoing on these boards, but I think the signing of Hatteberg, coupled with the retention of Aurelia have proven to be good moves. For now, it's a good situation and Hatteberg's defense has not been shabby, in my opinion.

registerthis
05-03-2006, 06:50 PM
I know this disagreement will be ongoing on these boards, but I think the signing of Hatteberg, coupled with the retention of Aurelia have proven to be good moves. For now, it's a good situation and Hatteberg's defense has not been shabby, in my opinion.

I agree.

It's difficult for me to find a reason to hate the hatteberg signing. if he was keeping a better, younger player from playing--then yeah, sure. But the Hatte-Aurilia platoon is working thus far. I don't see anything wrong with having him on the team. Additionally, Hatte has great plate discipline, which can only be a positive on a team with a number of young, impressionable hitters.

redsmetz
05-03-2006, 08:58 PM
Additionally, Hatte has great plate discipline, which can only be a positive on a team with a number of young, impressionable hitters.

I think this is potentially a huge plus.

GAC
05-03-2006, 09:27 PM
I agree.

It's difficult for me to find a reason to hate the hatteberg signing. if he was keeping a better, younger player from playing--then yeah, sure. But the Hatte-Aurilia platoon is working thus far. I don't see anything wrong with having him on the team. Additionally, Hatte has great plate discipline, which can only be a positive on a team with a number of young, impressionable hitters.

I thoroughly agree.

Looking at the 1B platoon, we have 2 Mil invested that is producing (combined) a .294 B/A .387 OB% + .486 SLG = .874 OPS 6 Hrs 17 RBIs

I'll take that. ;)

TRF
05-03-2006, 10:28 PM
Hatte is the kind of guy that has numbers that deceive. good OBP, but no speed, and no pop. plus he is limited defensively.

Johnny Footstool
05-04-2006, 01:40 AM
Doesn't Krivsky deserve the benefit of the doubt?

Why would he?

He made one trade for Arroyo that has panned out surprisingly well, and he acquired Brandon Phillips for nothing (a move a number of people on this board were clamoring for). That doesn't earn him the benefit of the doubt for anything.

The Baumer
05-04-2006, 02:01 AM
IMO Krivsky is just trying to get as much use out of Williams as he can. Everytime Williams barely scrapes by, that is 5 more days that the Reds have to analyze, negotiate, and prepare for a replacement. Although his stuff is terrible he has been getting decent enough results to win. Rest assured that Williams won't be a Red for very long, at most by the end of this season.

Guacarock
05-04-2006, 03:37 AM
Getting Cody Ross? pointless.

Wrong. Here's why.

1. Griffey's days in CF are clearly numbered. To save wear and tear on his fragile legs, he ought to have already been shifted to LF or 1B. Soon enough, the Front Office will have little choice but to make just such a move, not only for the good of the team, but also to safeguard Junior's health and the remaining $30 million or so we have invested in him. The only other alternative -- trading Griffey, perhaps to an American League team where he can DH. Regardless of whether he stays or goes, it's looking more likely that he will not remain a fixture in CF, leaving that position wide open.

2. If Griffey can no longer patrol CF, who does? With Griffey on the DL, we have Freel subbing for him. Freel is arguably the better defender. But is he a long-term solution or a stopgap? Hard to say. If push comes to shove, we all know Freel could be packaged for pitching. Also, the verdict is out on whether Freel can play everyday without going in the tank himself. We have seen his batting average plummet 100 points since he got inserted into the lineup on a daily basis. Perhaps it's just a fluke and a bad streak, or perhaps an indicator that he's really a super-sub, but not a reliable starter.

3. Which brings us to Cody Ross. It would have been pointless to expend a lot of our trade stock to bring him on board as insurance behind Griffey and Freel. But it doesn't hurt at all to acquire him as cheaply as we did for a PTBNL. He was judged the best prospect in the Detroit Tigers system a few years ago, and the best outfield defender in the LA Dodgers system only last year. He has some power to go along with his glove. Personally, I see no harm or foul in giving him a tryout and a chance to compete for any OF vacancies we might have, either starting or fill-in posts.

4. Everyone on the board is sold on Denorfia, but even with the strong performance he has logged in our minor league system, it's a mistake to hand him the keys to the kingdom before he makes the jump to the Bigs and proves he's up to the task. Challenges still await Denorfia. Better that he win a job over real competition, like Cody Ross might provide, than to be anointed because he's less gimpy than a veteran PH specialist like McCracken.

5. Let's say Denorfia wins the right to succeed Junior in CF, fair and square. Still doesn't mean we made a mistake picking up Ross. Maybe he could be useful as a bench player. With Ross' defensive skills, his power, and his scrappiness, he might not be Griffey's replacement, but that doesn't preclude him from filling Wiley Mo's role.

In sum, it's premature to call the acquisition of Cody Ross pointless. He's had one at-bat in a Reds uniform. At the least, let's see him play a few games at GABP or Louisville before making such blanket pronouncements. It's just my spider sense tingling, but I sincerely doubt that Ross is Romano redux. Ross has more potential than that, but just how much more remains to be seen.

Ravenlord
05-04-2006, 10:54 AM
i was thinking something similar to this after the series against the Cards. LaRusa for some God-awful reason considers Williams one of the best lefties in the NL. Williams had a quality start against the Cardinals.

the crux is that Jockety probably thinks Williams is crap. thoughLaRusa might have enough pull to be able to convince Jockety to at least make a minimalist offer. might be able to pull out a Tyler Johnson (who seems to be the anti-Krivsky pitcher model), or a Cody Haerther (about two years off).

Ravenlord
05-04-2006, 11:05 AM
Getting Cody Ross? pointless
i don't know...probably like the Reds pitchers (especially the starters), i like the idea of an OF of Ross, Denorfia, and Kearns.

backbencher
05-04-2006, 11:10 AM
Why would he?

He made one trade for Arroyo that has panned out surprisingly well, and he acquired Brandon Phillips for nothing (a move a number of people on this board were clamoring for). That doesn't earn him the benefit of the doubt for anything.

Well, first because everyone - even DanO, even Bowden - deserves the benefit of the doubt until they lose it. Krivsky has had a successful career in a competitive field and was chosen ahead of others. It doesn mean he'll be great - the same criteria applied to DanO, once - but things work better if you start with the assumption that the other guy knows something, too. Particularly in a case like this where we know Krivsky has access to a lot more information than do we message board yutzes.

On top of that, Krivsky seems to do all the right things. Sure, there are no big moves, but every incremental move - including Phillips, which is a move no other team in MLB made - seems to be leaning toward the good. As others have noted, the Hatteberg/Aurilia platoon seems highly functional, at least for now. And we know from Womack that Krivsky is willing to boot a veteran to the curb when necessary.

I'm not saying Krivsky will be great, or even good - it's just too early - but I can't imagine actually expecting bad things out of him.

TRF
05-04-2006, 11:31 AM
Wrong. Here's why.

1. Griffey's days in CF are clearly numbered. To save wear and tear on his fragile legs, he ought to have already been shifted to LF or 1B. Soon enough, the Front Office will have little choice but to make just such a move, not only for the good of the team, but also to safeguard Junior's health and the remaining $30 million or so we have invested in him. The only other alternative -- trading Griffey, perhaps to an American League team where he can DH. Regardless of whether he stays or goes, it's looking more likely that he will not remain a fixture in CF, leaving that position wide open.

2. If Griffey can no longer patrol CF, who does? With Griffey on the DL, we have Freel subbing for him. Freel is arguably the better defender. But is he a long-term solution or a stopgap? Hard to say. If push comes to shove, we all know Freel could be packaged for pitching. Also, the verdict is out on whether Freel can play everyday without going in the tank himself. We have seen his batting average plummet 100 points since he got inserted into the lineup on a daily basis. Perhaps it's just a fluke and a bad streak, or perhaps an indicator that he's really a super-sub, but not a reliable starter.

3. Which brings us to Cody Ross. It would have been pointless to expend a lot of our trade stock to bring him on board as insurance behind Griffey and Freel. But it doesn't hurt at all to acquire him as cheaply as we did for a PTBNL. He was judged the best prospect in the Detroit Tigers system a few years ago, and the best outfield defender in the LA Dodgers system only last year. He has some power to go along with his glove. Personally, I see no harm or foul in giving him a tryout and a chance to compete for any OF vacancies we might have, either starting or fill-in posts.

4. Everyone on the board is sold on Denorfia, but even with the strong performance he has logged in our minor league system, it's a mistake to hand him the keys to the kingdom before he makes the jump to the Bigs and proves he's up to the task. Challenges still await Denorfia. Better that he win a job over real competition, like Cody Ross might provide, than to be anointed because he's less gimpy than a veteran PH specialist like McCracken.

5. Let's say Denorfia wins the right to succeed Junior in CF, fair and square. Still doesn't mean we made a mistake picking up Ross. Maybe he could be useful as a bench player. With Ross' defensive skills, his power, and his scrappiness, he might not be Griffey's replacement, but that doesn't preclude him from filling Wiley Mo's role.

In sum, it's premature to call the acquisition of Cody Ross pointless. He's had one at-bat in a Reds uniform. At the least, let's see him play a few games at GABP or Louisville before making such blanket pronouncements. It's just my spider sense tingling, but I sincerely doubt that Ross is Romano redux. Ross has more potential than that, but just how much more remains to be seen.

Cody Ross is a 25 year old OF that has never hit at the major league level, except for a good day in LA. Nothing he does is better than what Denorfia does, and honestly, an OF of Jr. in left, Deno in CF in Kearns in right would do it for me, if the thinking is Freel has to go for pitching.

As for your comparison to Romano. After looking at their minor league numbers, I'd say they were pretty similar players, with Ross getting a slight edge in power, Romano a slight OBP edge even though his OBP was mostly hit driven in the higher levels.

The fact is, both guys are the 25th man on the roster. The league has a lot of 25th man types, so why get one that is out of options and then not play him?

While I'll give you that defensively Ross has WMP beat, offensively I don't think he could carry his jock in a wheel barrel.

Getting Ross to me is a mistake because he has no options, and is probably the last guy on the bench. Now if the Reds send Q down, then perhaps we see what we can see with the guy, but so far, he's had 1 AB with the reds. 1.

M2
05-04-2006, 11:43 AM
Why wouldn't you want a young guy with good D, decent wheels and who hit well in the upper minors on your bench? Seems to me, that's pretty much an ideal bench player.

backbencher
05-04-2006, 11:53 AM
Why wouldn't you want a young guy with good D, decent wheels and who hit well in the upper minors on your bench? Seems to me, that's pretty much an ideal bench player.

Agreed. I see Ross as evidence that the front office is counting on Junior to take McCracken's spot, Ross to serve as the fourth/fifth OF and Denorfia to get more seasoning either for a trade or as a potential starter in the event another OF is traded.

westofyou
05-04-2006, 11:54 AM
Why wouldn't you want a young guy with good D, decent wheels and who hit well in the upper minors on your bench? Seems to me, that's pretty much an ideal bench player.
Ed Armbrister?

M2
05-04-2006, 11:58 AM
Ed Armbrister?

More akin to Michael Tucker I'd say.

TRF
05-04-2006, 12:22 PM
Why wouldn't you want a young guy with good D, decent wheels and who hit well in the upper minors on your bench? Seems to me, that's pretty much an ideal bench player.

It's not that i don't want the type of you describe, but i want flexibility with that player. Denorfia is that player with better all around skills and he still has options. Getting Ross restricts roster flexibility, especially if you like him. I think the Reds like Deno, but like that he has options.

Kriv gets rid of Womack because TW offered little, and restricted options for the roster. Honestly, Ross offers little too, and he restricts the roster.

just my opinion.

M2
05-04-2006, 12:28 PM
It's not that i don't want the type of you describe, but i want flexibility with that player. Denorfia is that player with better all around skills and he still has options. Getting Ross restricts roster flexibility, especially if you like him. I think the Reds like Deno, but like that he has options.

Kriv gets rid of Womack because TW offered little, and restricted options for the roster. Honestly, Ross offers little too, and he restricts the roster.

just my opinion.

If he can hit, field and run, then I don't see where he's restricting anything. The idea should be getting players worth keeping in the majors, not collecting those whom you can send to the minors.

TRF
05-04-2006, 12:39 PM
If he can hit. 1AB and he's on the DL. He's never shown the ability to hit at the ML level except for one good day in LA. So all things being equal (history) I take Deno over Ross and look for more pitching.

M2
05-04-2006, 12:46 PM
If he can hit. 1AB and he's on the DL. He's never shown the ability to hit at the ML level except for one good day in LA. So all things being equal (history) I take Deno over Ross and look for more pitching.

B.J. Upton's never much hit at the ML level either. I think I'd take him too.

Of all the things in the world that I could possibly worry about with a player, whether a 25-year-old who's hit steadily on his entire climb through the minors can hit a little bit isn't one of them.

All things being equal, I'd take Deno and Ross and look for more pitching. Quinton McCracken would be the guy holding the short straw.

TRF
05-04-2006, 01:27 PM
You aren't actually comparing BJ Upton to Cody Ross, but I get your point. However, while Ross' SLG has been good throughout the minors, his OBP has only been so-so.

Now I looked up how to calculate a player MLE, then decided it would be easier to stab myself in the foot. Ross does not translate too well in the OBP area. Plus his last two seasons were in the PCL which is a hitters league I believe. I don't think he has the pop you think he has.

I could be wrong, but this isn't the same situation as Brandon Phillips, and I think you need flexibility with your 25th man.

Guacarock
05-04-2006, 01:44 PM
If he can hit. 1AB and he's on the DL. He's never shown the ability to hit at the ML level except for one good day in LA. So all things being equal (history) I take Deno over Ross and look for more pitching.

What's wrong with carrying Cody Ross for a month or so, just to see what he can give us? Maybe he will cost McCracken a job, but with McCracken hitting under the Mendoza line, so what? Even without Ross' presence, McCracken will have to step up his game, or else soon be supplanted by Abad, Long, Stratton, Buchanan or another eager "stud" from Louisville.

I also don't think Ross impacts Denorfia significantly. In actuality, Denorfia is being held back by Freel. So long as Freel remains the fourth outfielder, and we have Griffey/Kearns/Dunn entrenched as regular OFs, there's not much percentage in keeping Denorfia on the big league roster. But shed Freel or shift an OF to 1B, and Denorfia's value to the Reds rises immensely. Otherwise, he doesn't have a role or playing time with the Reds, so he mostly lingers in Louisville.

Once Griffey is back and once the team drops one of its extra catchers (which ought to happen as soon as practical), this OF logjam will sort itself out. Then we can grade Krivsky and each of the players involved. Until then, chalk it up as an "incomplete" work in progress.

TRF
05-04-2006, 01:55 PM
I also don't think Ross impacts Denorfia significantly. In actuality, Denorfia is being held back by Freel. So long as Freel remains the fourth outfielder, and we have Griffey/Kearns/Dunn entrenched as regular OFs, there's not much percentage in keeping Denorfia on the big league roster. But shed Freel or shift an OF to 1B, and Denorfia's value to the Reds rises immensely. Otherwise, he doesn't have a role or playing time with the Reds, so he mostly lingers in Louisville.

And this is why I don't give him the benefit of the doubt. Freel needs to be either the everyday CF, or moved for pitching with Deno being the everyday CF. Junior needs to move to LF, and Dunn needs to realize he is the best option at 1B. And the men to make these guys realize it are Narron and Krivsky. The entire team is made better by these changes.. offense, defense, and the pitching will certainly reap the benefits.

It's a tweak, but an important one. And one that needs attention too, not scouring the waiver wire for Cody Ross.

KronoRed
05-04-2006, 04:02 PM
I'd prefer Ross over McCracken

backbencher
05-04-2006, 04:05 PM
And this is why I don't give him the benefit of the doubt. Freel needs to be either the everyday CF, or moved for pitching with Deno being the everyday CF. Junior needs to move to LF, and Dunn needs to realize he is the best option at 1B. And the men to make these guys realize it are Narron and Krivsky. The entire team is made better by these changes.. offense, defense, and the pitching will certainly reap the benefits.

It's a tweak, but an important one. And one that needs attention too, not scouring the waiver wire for Cody Ross.

Of course, Krivsky can't move Junior to LF while he is on the DL, and he can't trade Freel unless there is a trade partner. Unless you know of a trade foregone, I don't see how either current event loses Krivsky a thing, credibility wise.

Contrasted with that etherea, we know that Krivsky recognizes the glut of OFs (see Wily Mo) and how to trade one for a pitcher (same). Given that data point - and the complete absence of any contradictory information - I don't see how the presumption is that Krivsky is out to lunch on this issue. Heck, I'm not sure that I can read the Ross/Ross acquisitions as anything other than stage-setting for a hitting-for-pitching deal.

redsrule2500
05-06-2006, 03:17 AM
Well they just beat us with 7 runs, so I wouldn't write them out by wanting Dave Williams to pitch against them.

Marc D
05-08-2006, 01:38 AM
Welch made an interseting point today when he compared Williams ability to have catastrophic inning in the blink of an eye to that of RZ favorite Jimmy Haynes. It got me thinking about it so I looked up some numbers.

Haynes career(insert oxymoron joke here)
ERA: 5.37
WHIP: 1.63
H9:10.18
K9:5.71
HR9:1.11

Williams career to date
ERA: 4.53
WHIP: 1.38
H9: 8.62
K9: 5.47
HR9:1.29

Williams isn't there yet but he shows some real promise, especially if you consider he strikes out fewer batters and allows more home runs per 9 than Jimmy did.

If Williams can continue to build on what he has done so far this year I think he can catch Jimmy in ERA, WHIP and H9 making him one of the truely special pitchers in MLB history. Rember he's only 27 and probably just now coming into his own.

Think about it, how many other guys will be able to say they were from Alaska and worse than Jimmy Haynes?

TRF
05-08-2006, 10:20 AM
TRF wrote:



In going back and re-reading the thread, I have to acknowledge that you weren't hoping for his failure, per se, rather you were clearly expressing your worry that the Reds might want to keep him. The statement quoted above is what set me straight.

Sorry for the confusion in this case.

no problem, but as you can see, fail he did. A 4 run lead and he implodes with 2 outs. Audition over, Dave Williams, I sentence you to mop up duty in the pen.

Clausse needs to step up. I think his loss in Coors was his best pitched game this year, so he may be heading in the right direction. But Williams has got to go. Hell at this point I'm ready for Dumatrait. Anyone would be better than Dave Williams.

membengal
05-08-2006, 10:52 AM
For what it's worth, in the off chance that the front office happens by these pages every so often and reads this, I am making my once yearly trip to Cincy this upcoming weekend, this time just me and my 4-year-old son, who is really starting to get into baseball in general and the Reds in particular.

It is absolutely disheartening to realize that the tix I bought for Saturday night sentence me to having to watch (and then explain to my child) Dave Williams pitch against the Phillies, and anticipate watching Howard, Utley, Abreu et al launch balls into the night.

If the Reds want to fix alleged attendance issues, start by not making it so much like roulette for us out of town fans to come to the games...

Chip R
05-08-2006, 11:06 AM
Funny thing is, he won the game. As we know, a lot of people in the game and in the media value a guy who puts up wins regardless of his other stats. Williams is a perfect example. If I've heard it once, I've heard a hundred times how he got double digit victories in PIT last year.

But the thing you have to remember if you are trying to trade him is that other teams see that the pitching poor Reds are trying to trade him. They are going to think it's pretty weird that the Reds are trying to trade away a starting pitcher.

traderumor
05-08-2006, 11:10 AM
Every team has #5 starters that many hope are not on the mound when they go to a game who in their day were as bad as many consider Dave Williams to be. For example, it was a bummer to know that Clay Kirby was pitching instead of Gullett, Billingham or Norman when I only got to see maybe 3-5 games all year. I think Williams stinks as much as the next guy, but who is pitching is of no consideration for going to a ballgame for this out of towner. Heck, I went to one game thinking it was going to be Elmer Dessens turn and I show up to find Jared Fernandez had just been called up and Dessens was being pushed back a day. As it were, Graves ended up blowing the game in the ninth. Go figure.

TRF
05-08-2006, 11:45 AM
Funny thing is, he won the game. As we know, a lot of people in the game and in the media value a guy who puts up wins regardless of his other stats. Williams is a perfect example. If I've heard it once, I've heard a hundred times how he got double digit victories in PIT last year.

But the thing you have to remember if you are trying to trade him is that other teams see that the pitching poor Reds are trying to trade him. They are going to think it's pretty weird that the Reds are trying to trade away a starting pitcher.

Eat his contract. Demote him to the pan. Trade him to the Northern League for 60 cases of beer. Dave Williams on the mound is a long damn day for players and fans alike. He is flat awful. He has zero value, and watching him pitch endangers my television/computer.

membengal
05-08-2006, 11:48 AM
Well, it's no consideration for me either, trumour, as I am coming, having already committed to this weekend. That said, I don't think it is too much to ask that the Reds make an effort to ask more from their fifth starter than an ERA scraping 8.00 and a WHIP around 2.00. That kind of stuff is simply not acceptable to most fans, and should embarrass a front office looking to pump up interest in an interesting team.

And, when you are coming from 8 hours away, and driving, it is more than a little irritant. I would have felt differntly (and did) when I was coming only from the east side of Columbus...

Falls City Beer
05-08-2006, 12:01 PM
Well, it's no consideration for me either, trumour, as I am coming, having already committed to this weekend. That said, I don't think it is too much to ask that the Reds make an effort to ask more from their fifth starter than an ERA scraping 8.00 and a WHIP around 2.00. That kind of stuff is simply not acceptable to most fans, and should embarrass a front office looking to pump up interest in an interesting team.

And, when you are coming from 8 hours away, and driving, it is more than a little irritant. I would have felt differntly (and did) when I was coming only from the east side of Columbus...

Excellent post. Making an example of a joke like Williams is the kind of change of culture this ballclub should be instituting.

traderumor
05-08-2006, 12:23 PM
Well, it's no consideration for me either, trumour, as I am coming, having already committed to this weekend. That said, I don't think it is too much to ask that the Reds make an effort to ask more from their fifth starter than an ERA scraping 8.00 and a WHIP around 2.00. That kind of stuff is simply not acceptable to most fans, and should embarrass a front office looking to pump up interest in an interesting team.

And, when you are coming from 8 hours away, and driving, it is more than a little irritant. I would have felt differntly (and did) when I was coming only from the east side of Columbus...Still, a #5 starter is the #5 starter for a reason, regardless of how bad the numbers are for a particular guy at some point in time. Honestly, Williams is performing well below his career numbers, so it isn't like the guy has no performance expectations that give the Reds absolutely no good reason to keep running him out there. What was funny about yesterday's outing is that I had just commented that he had pretty good stuff for a change right before the shoe dropped on the five run inning, and then he recovered and did not give up another run.

Further, the Reds have skipped him and have rearranged the rotation and moved him back a day at times, so I think they are not showing a very high level of confidence. I would not be broken hearted if they cut him tomorrow, but I do not think their decision to give him some time to reach his career norms is completely meritless, either.

As for your original comment, the Reds are still far way from having a serviceable #5 starter. They barely have three consistent members of the rotation, so I'm not sure what rabbit they are supposed to pull out of a hat. Germano? Belisle? Maybe, I dunno.

membengal
05-08-2006, 12:29 PM
At this point, I would be far happier looking forward to seeing a Germano or Belisle out there than Williams. Far happier. If only for the momentary hope for better things out of that spot in the rotation. At this point, the most I can realistically hope from from Williams is that the Reds score 8 and he only yields 7. That is less than optimal, for any spot in the rotation...

traderumor
05-08-2006, 12:47 PM
At this point, I would be far happier looking forward to seeing a Germano or Belisle out there than Williams. Far happier. If only for the momentary hope for better things out of that spot in the rotation. At this point, the most I can realistically hope from from Williams is that the Reds score 8 and he only yields 7. That is less than optimal, for any spot in the rotation...The Reds won 3-2 in his previous start.

ochre
05-08-2006, 12:53 PM
Isn't Mother's Day this weekend?

Tempting fate membengal?

membengal
05-08-2006, 12:55 PM
Traderumour...Yeah, they did. But he also gave up, as I recall, something like 11 hits in his time in the game, and practically redefined luck as it relates to runs allowed versus runners on base...

Edit: 8 hits and 2 walks in 6 and 2/3 against a Cards line-up missing Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen. C'mon now...

I refuse to buy into his competence, and am unsure what exactly it is that you see in him, unless you are arguing at this point just because you like to argue...

membengal
05-08-2006, 12:56 PM
Isn't Mother's Day this weekend?

Tempting fate membengal?

Yes. Yes I am. Back to the scene of the crime, as it were. That game in 2002 never happened.

traderumor
05-08-2006, 01:05 PM
Yeah, they did. But he also gave up, as I recall, something like 11 hits in his time in the game, and practically redefined luck as it relates to runs allowed versus runners on base...

I refuse to buy into his competence, and am unsure what exactly it is that you see in him, unless you are arguing at this point just because you like to argue...I think I pretty clearly stated that I think Williams is not worth much, but I really don't think presenting a few reasons why the Reds keep him in the rotation deserves the charge of arguing for the sake of arguing. It seems that Williams is being evaluated on being brought in a trade for Casey so he should be better rather than comparing him to the expectations for a #5 major league starter. If Williams accomplished his career norms in Cincy, he would be a #5 starter that would keep you in many games.

But to say a trip to watch the Reds is ruined because they have a pitcher at the back of their rotation that is no good is a charge that could be made by the fans of all 30 major league teams.

SteelSD
05-08-2006, 01:14 PM
I think I pretty clearly stated that I think Williams is not worth much, but I really don't think presenting a few reasons why the Reds keep him in the rotation deserves the charge of arguing for the sake of arguing. It seems that Williams is being evaluated on being brought in a trade for Casey so he should be better rather than comparing him to the expectations for a #5 major league starter. If Williams accomplished his career norms in Cincy, he would be a #5 starter that would keep you in many games.

But to say a trip to watch the Reds is ruined because they have a pitcher at the back of their rotation that is no good is a charge that could be made by the fans of all 30 major league teams.

tr, if Dave Williams produced to his career norms (and in particular his recent "norm") he'd be a 5.00+ ERA pitcher. You want that in the rotation five slot? I don't.

But he's nowhere near those norms right now. His OPSA is an appalling 1.223 (that's not a typo). His HR rate is through the roof and his K rate has dug itself through the floor. His WHIP is nearly 2.00. He's Jimmy Anderson v2.0. Time for the Reds to move on.

TRF
05-08-2006, 01:41 PM
I swear this was a bomb on a timer left by DanO to cripple the Reds.

Caveat Emperor
05-08-2006, 01:58 PM
But he's nowhere near those norms right now. His OPSA is an appalling 1.223 (that's not a typo). His HR rate is through the roof and his K rate has dug itself through the floor. His WHIP is nearly 2.00. He's Jimmy Anderson v2.0. Time for the Reds to move on.

To put that in perspective, Albert Pujols is leading the major leagues with an OPS of 1.273. On a night where Dave Williams pitches, it's the functional equivalent of facing an opposing lineup consisting of 9 Albert Pujols clones.

Further, Dave Williams is allowing opposing hitters to reach base at a .500 OBP. Basically any batter stepping into the box has a 50/50 shot of reaching base when Williams is on the mound.

This guy isn't just a bad pitcher, he's a cancer at the center of the diamond. Even middling numbers from Germano or Belisle would give the Reds a better chance to compete than the junkball Williams is pitching right now.

traderumor
05-08-2006, 02:31 PM
tr, if Dave Williams produced to his career norms (and in particular his recent "norm") he'd be a 5.00+ ERA pitcher. You want that in the rotation five slot? I don't.

But he's nowhere near those norms right now. His OPSA is an appalling 1.223 (that's not a typo). His HR rate is through the roof and his K rate has dug itself through the floor. His WHIP is nearly 2.00. He's Jimmy Anderson v2.0. Time for the Reds to move on.I'm not sure what adjustments you are making, but going into this year, Williams career ERA in the majors was 4.25 with a 1.33 WHIP. The last two years his ERA was 4.41 and 4.42. That I do want in the #5 slot. Has he been awful so far this year? Yes. Do I wonder how he compiled those numbers over any meaningful length of time having seen his stuff? Sure. But still, those are the numbers.

membengal
05-08-2006, 02:36 PM
To put that in perspective, Albert Pujols is leading the major leagues with an OPS of 1.273. On a night where Dave Williams pitches, it's the functional equivalent of facing an opposing lineup consisting of 9 Albert Pujols clones.

Further, Dave Williams is allowing opposing hitters to reach base at a .500 OBP. Basically any batter stepping into the box has a 50/50 shot of reaching base when Williams is on the mound.

This guy isn't just a bad pitcher, he's a cancer at the center of the diamond. Even middling numbers from Germano or Belisle would give the Reds a better chance to compete than the junkball Williams is pitching right now.

Yes. 100% agree. My disagreement with tr apparently stems from just how awful each of us views Williams. I view him just about precisely like CE just laid out. After a year of just figuring that at some point Milton would stop being awful and get to somewhere near career norms, and it not happening, I am a LOT less patient to wait and see if Williams can get back to alleged career norms.

Then again, since he doesn't have much of a track record, all things considered, perhaps we are seeing what is his more accurate career norms.

I apologize for not having the time to look it up, but I suspect the league wide ERAs for 5th straters is a lot less than where Williams currently resides...

traderumor
05-08-2006, 02:48 PM
Yes. 100% agree. My disagreement with tr apparently stems from just how awful each of us views Williams. I view him just about precisely like CE just laid out. After a year of just figuring that at some point Milton would stop being awful and get to somewhere near career norms, and it not happening, I am a LOT less patient to wait and see if Williams can get back to alleged career norms.

Then again, since he doesn't have much of a track record, all things considered, perhaps we are seeing what is his more accurate career norms.

I apologize for not having the time to look it up, but I suspect the league wide ERAs for 5th straters is a lot less than where Williams currently resides...Sure there is. It's May 8 and there are a lot guys at both ends of the spectrum when you look at their numbers at this point in the season. The DBacks had Hernandez out there yesterday sporting a 7 something ERA as a back of the rotation guy too, and I don't think it went down any after his pounding. And he was throwing some meatballs, just with a little more flair.

Although I think I've made this perfectly clear, I'll try one more time. I am in no way intending to say Williams is anymore than he is, and that is someone possessing career numbers that could make him a serviceable #5 starter. While it may be dramatic to trot out his numbers on May 8 and bring Albert Pujols into the debate, then claim he is an embarrassment to ever pick up the ball again as a Cincinnati Red and should be summarily cut so that out of towners will come to more games, I can see where the Reds do expect him to improve from what he has shown thus far and would consider him to be able to fit the job description.

Of course the goal would be to have a better pitcher in that slot someday. I don't think that I've argued anything any different, at least not intentionally. But bringing in fodder to replace fodder hardly seems the way to go with the staff in the state it is.

KronoRed
05-08-2006, 02:58 PM
Eat his contract. Demote him to the pan. Trade him to the Northern League for 60 cases of beer. Dave Williams on the mound is a long damn day for players and fans alike. He is flat awful. He has zero value, and watching him pitch endangers my television/computer.
Well not the TV but I agree with the Rest ;)

membengal
05-08-2006, 03:03 PM
If there is any chance at all that the new fodder will be better than the fodder that is currently Dave Williams, I say you go for the new fodder. That's all.

And, of course, if he does pitch on Saturday night, I hope he magically channels Tom Browning circa 1990 and is amazing. But I certainly am not expecting that. And I really am not expecting to see a guy capable of having an ERA like he did last year.I don't know how Williams mustered that, but he seems ill-suited to match that at the moment, and in GABP.

Cyclone792
05-08-2006, 03:16 PM
I'm not sure what adjustments you are making, but going into this year, Williams career ERA in the majors was 4.25 with a 1.33 WHIP. The last two years his ERA was 4.41 and 4.42. That I do want in the #5 slot. Has he been awful so far this year? Yes. Do I wonder how he compiled those numbers over any meaningful length of time having seen his stuff? Sure. But still, those are the numbers.

The only reason Williams had a league average ERA of 4.25 is because he was incredibly hit lucky. Not a function of any type of good performance on his end. Just good luck.

Coming into this season, Dave Williams had logged 334.2 innings. He racked up 211 strikeouts while walking 140 batters, giving up 48 home runs and 306 hits. Add it up, and Dave Williams came into 2006 with a career DIPS ERA of 5.02. DIPS ERA won't lie to ya; it's use is primarily in determining the future performance of a pitcher based on past defense independent statistics. It predicted Williams would explode into a pile of trash, and sure enough, Williams has done just that.

Williams BABIPs: .243 in 2001, .245 in 2002, .262 in 2004, .275 in 2004. So far in 2006 his BABIP is .324. Part of the difference between his first four seasons and this season is primarily going from being exceptionally hit lucky to now being somewhat hit unlucky.

FWIW, Williams has a DIPS ERA this season of 7.10. That's what 8 home runs allowed, 14 walks and only 10 strike outs gets you in 28.2 innings of work. Mix in a 7.10 DIPS ERA with being slightly hit unlucky and the result is the 7.85 ERA we now currently see.

redsmetz
05-08-2006, 03:32 PM
The Reds won 3-2 in his previous start.

In my opinion, he's only had two decent starts, the one he lost to Pittsburgh, I think and that last 3-2. I long ago conceded that posters weren't wishing for him to fail. Yes, I think we'd be better with him in the pen for mop up or down in Louisville (he does have options - don't know if he has a split contract - I doubt it).

I assume Wayne is looking under every rock for better starters.

joe

traderumor
05-08-2006, 03:49 PM
The only reason Williams had a league average ERA of 4.25 is because he was incredibly hit lucky. Not a function of any type of good performance on his end. Just good luck.

Coming into this season, Dave Williams had logged 334.2 innings. He racked up 211 strikeouts while walking 140 batters, giving up 48 home runs and 306 hits. Add it up, and Dave Williams came into 2006 with a career DIPS ERA of 5.02. DIPS ERA won't lie to ya; it's use is primarily in determining the future performance of a pitcher based on past defense independent statistics. It predicted Williams would explode into a pile of trash, and sure enough, Williams has done just that.

Williams BABIPs: .243 in 2001, .245 in 2002, .262 in 2004, .275 in 2004. So far in 2006 his BABIP is .324. Part of the difference between his first four seasons and this season is primarily going from being exceptionally hit lucky to now being somewhat hit unlucky.

FWIW, Williams has a DIPS ERA this season of 7.10. That's what 8 home runs allowed, 14 walks and only 10 strike outs gets you in 28.2 innings of work. Mix in a 7.10 DIPS ERA with being slightly hit unlucky and the result is the 7.85 ERA we now currently see.
Not to get off on a tangent, but I'd argue that his BABIP is at the .324 range because he is throwing meatballs up there and that fewer meatballs resulted in the lower prior year BABIPs. I'm not sure I totally buy into the total luck theory that seems to be the requirement of BABIP. Of course, admittedly, I am not a BABIP expert, but I am reluctant to accept any theory that involves "oh he was just lucky for the 4 partial seasons that he has pitched in the majors."

traderumor
05-08-2006, 03:52 PM
In my opinion, he's only had two decent starts, the one he lost to Pittsburgh, I think and that last 3-2. I long ago conceded that posters weren't wishing for him to fail. Yes, I think we'd be better with him in the pen for mop up or down in Louisville (he does have options - don't know if he has a split contract - I doubt it).

I assume Wayne is looking under every rock for better starters.

joeThere is nothing in my opinions that are based on the premise that posters are wishing him to fail. I do think at this point that his performance must be judged on what his job description is , which I consider for a #5 starter to be worse than a league average pitcher. In this day and age, I'm thinking that an ERA in the 4.50-4.75 range (although I think the avg is up so far this year) and a WHIP in the 1.40-1.50 range to speak in generalities. I can see why the Reds think he is capable of doing that so that he can earn his paycheck instead of paying yet another guy to go away.

Cyclone792
05-08-2006, 04:21 PM
Not to get off on a tangent, but I'd argue that his BABIP is at the .324 range because he is throwing meatballs up there and that fewer meatballs resulted in the lower prior year BABIPs. I'm not sure I totally buy into the total luck theory that seems to be the requirement of BABIP. Of course, admittedly, I am not a BABIP expert, but I am reluctant to accept any theory that involves "oh he was just lucky for the 4 partial seasons that he has pitched in the majors."

Williams' BABIP this season is just part of the difference, tr.

If Dave Williams was performing to his career norms in defense independent stats such as K/9, BB/9 and HR/9, then he'd currently have an ERA in the ~5.50 range right now after factoring in being slightly hit unlucky in BABIP. Sure, that makes him more bearable than what he's given us, but that's still bad, and I don't think any of us wants even that in our rotation.

As bad as Williams has looked, his BABIP of .327 this season isn't terrible. Below average, of course, but not outside what you'd expect for a guy just being unlucky for five weeks. What's made Williams awful this season is his defense independent metrics, none of which he was ever any good to begin with:

2005 K/9: 5.71
2006 K/9: 3.14

2005 BB/9: 3.76
2006 BB/9: 4.40

2005 HR/9: 1.30
2006 HR/9: 2.51

2005 K/BB: 1.52
2006 K/BB: 0.71

The meatballs he's thrown to the plate that we recognize? Many are landing over the fence, which clearly shows up in the numbers. But then Williams is compounding the issue by allowing more balls in play this season than in previous seasons with his drop in K rate, which will result in more baserunners. And to top it off, he's hurting himself a third time by allowing even more baserunners via the free pass. That's a recipe for giving up a truckload of runs, and being hit unlucky just makes his awful performance shine uglier. It's one big, dirty mess, and the result is ... well ... Dave Williams so far in 2006.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-look-at-dips1/ ... that's not a bad article to get a grasp over DIPS, BABIP and all that jazz.

Patrick Bateman
05-08-2006, 04:29 PM
Not to get off on a tangent, but I'd argue that his BABIP is at the .324 range because he is throwing meatballs up there and that fewer meatballs resulted in the lower prior year BABIPs. I'm not sure I totally buy into the total luck theory that seems to be the requirement of BABIP. Of course, admittedly, I am not a BABIP expert, but I am reluctant to accept any theory that involves "oh he was just lucky for the 4 partial seasons that he has pitched in the majors."

Well here's an article I found that helps explain the whole luck factor theory:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

Maybe you know most of this, but it can help you become more of a BAPIP/DIPS expert.

EDIT: I see Cyclone also found a good article while I posted. Not trying to steal your thunder.

traderumor
05-08-2006, 04:32 PM
Williams' BABIP this season is just part of the difference, tr.

If Dave Williams was performing to his career norms in defense independent stats such as K/9, BB/9 and HR/9, then he'd currently have an ERA in the ~5.50 range right now after factoring in being slightly hit unlucky in BABIP. Sure, that makes him more bearable than what he's given us, but that's still bad, and I don't think any of us wants even that in our rotation.

As bad as Williams has looked, his BABIP of .327 this season isn't terrible. Below average, of course, but not outside what you'd expect for a guy just being unlucky for five weeks. What's made Williams awful this season is his defense independent metrics, none of which he was ever any good to begin with:

2005 K/9: 5.71
2006 K/9: 3.14

2005 BB/9: 3.76
2006 BB/9: 4.40

2005 HR/9: 1.30
2006 HR/9: 2.51

2005 K/BB: 1.52
2006 K/BB: 0.71

The meatballs he's thrown to the plate that we recognize? Many are landing over the fence, which clearly shows up in the numbers. But then Williams is compounding the issue by allowing more balls in play this season than in previous seasons with his drop in K rate, which will result in more baserunners. And to top it off, he's hurting himself a third time by allowing even more baserunners via the free pass. That's a recipe for giving up a truckload of runs, and being hit unlucky just makes his awful performance shine uglier. It's one big, dirty mess, and the result is ... well ... Dave Williams so far in 2006.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-look-at-dips1/ ... that's not a bad article to get a grasp over DIPS, BABIP and all that jazz.
Honestly, I understand that both with my subjective observations and how ugly the numbers have been. Yet, his career numbers to date were not accumulated in a vaccuum.

redsmetz
05-08-2006, 04:50 PM
There is nothing in my opinions that are based on the premise that posters are wishing him to fail. I do think at this point that his performance must be judged on what his job description is , which I consider for a #5 starter to be worse than a league average pitcher. In this day and age, I'm thinking that an ERA in the 4.50-4.75 range (although I think the avg is up so far this year) and a WHIP in the 1.40-1.50 range to speak in generalities. I can see why the Reds think he is capable of doing that so that he can earn his paycheck instead of paying yet another guy to go away.

That would be interesting to see what the league average is for #5 starters ( or the MLB Average). I don't think the Reds should jettison his contract. I don't think that would be to our advantage, but I'm not adverse to seeing his turn skipped from time to time (which, by definition) 5th starters are apt to have happen. In fact, one might argue that he did better the last time out in Washington with that extra day's rest.

I still would like for him to get it together in put together a couple of decent starts (not stellar, just decent).

joe

Cyclone792
05-08-2006, 05:12 PM
Honestly, I understand that both with my subjective observations and how ugly the numbers have been. Yet, his career numbers to date were not accumulated in a vaccuum.

You must isolate his defense independent stats to understand how effective - or in Williams' case, ineffective - he's really been his entire career. If he had an average defense with average luck behind him prior to 2006, he was a 5.00 ERA pitcher. Good luck and good defenders gave off the perception that Williams was actually a worthwhile innings eater on the mound, when in reality he's always been awful.

Bad pitching signings and acquisitions occur when teams fail to isolate defense independent variables in a pitcher's performance, which results in a massive failure to attempt to properly analyze the pitcher in question. Instead, those teams fall victim to a guy who was either hit lucky, benefitted greatly from the defenders behind him, benefitted from a wealth of run support, and in some cases, benefitted from more than one of those factors at once. Recognizing the real performance via isolated defense independent variables in pitchers such as Eric Milton and Dave Williams, who were a mirage of their real selves prior to coming to Cincinnati, would probably have kept them from coming to Cincinnati period, but our former front office regime failed miserably in that regard, along with just about everything else.

traderumor
05-08-2006, 05:21 PM
Cyclone,

Thanks for the follow up. I did not get a chance to read the article, but your last explanation gets a "fair enough" from me. Hopefully membengal gets an over his head performance, or at least a slugfest with the Reds coming out on top.

One thing I don't understand is how offensive run support relates to isolating independent variables in a pitcher's performance? Also, aren't the defensive metrics still a little shaky that would give rise to something like DIPS ERA?

membengal
05-08-2006, 05:25 PM
Hopefully membengal gets an over his head performance, or at least a slugfest with the Reds coming out on top.

Yes, I would very much like that.

Or, in the future, a 5th starter who doesn't display the characteristics that make me not look forward to watching him live like I don't look forward to a visit to the proctologist...

Cyclone792
05-08-2006, 05:56 PM
Cyclone,

Thanks for the follow up. I did not get a chance to read the article, but your last explanation gets a "fair enough" from me. Hopefully membengal gets an over his head performance, or at least a slugfest with the Reds coming out on top.

One thing I don't understand is how offensive run support relates to isolating independent variables in a pitcher's performance? Also, aren't the defensive metrics still a little shaky that would give rise to something like DIPS ERA?

Offensive run support has a large bearing on a pitcher's win totals, and that becomes a problem when front offices look at an impressive win total and deems a pitcher worthy of spending millions upon millions of dollars on. It would not surprise me at all if O'Brien got wide-eyed at Milton's win totals in 2004 without ever attempting to analyze why Milton won as many games as he did.

Defensive fielding metrics are still a bit shaky, which is why DIPS ERA uses the pitching metrics that have no relationship with fielding defense (except in very, very rare cases such as a hitter reaching on a strikeout due to a passed ball or something). Strikeouts are fully the pitcher's job, walks are fully the pitcher's job, same with home runs allowed. Hits allowed involves balls in play and the defense, so DIPS excludes that, same as WHIP since it involves hits allowed.

Strikeouts, walks allowed and home runs allowed are what's important. Those are the three crucial variables in determining the likely future success of a pitcher. When the Arroyo/Pena trade occurred, Arroyo's strikeout rate was a large topic within the discussion of that deal since strikeout rate is a key factor in determining how successful a pitcher will be.

The vast majority of pitchers in baseball have very little control over where on the diamond a regular ball in play will be hit, same as he has little to no control over the defense's ability to turn that batted ball into an out (it has been shown that a pitcher such as Greg Maddux has some slight ability to control BABIP, but pitchers like Maddux are rare exceptions). As an example, look at Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000. Martinez was a machine in both seasons, but his BABIP was .344 in 1999, then .253 in 2000 (and in 2001 it was right back up to .322). In regards to BABIP, from 1999-2001, Martinez had a string of seasons that were unlucky, lucky and unlucky once again.

Even a guy like Pedro Martinez in his peak had a BABIP that would fluctuate by 70+ points from each season to the next. Pedro couldn't control his BABIP, but what he could control was his strikeout rate, walks allowed rate and home runs allowed rate, all of which were stellar during those seasons. That's why when we see a guy like Dave Williams put up a 4.25 ERA, a 5.02 DIPS ERA and have BABIPs around .250 prior to coming to the Reds, we can easily guess that he's likely going to get bombed sooner than later, and sooner has inconveniently already arrived. His BABIP can randomly jump to .325, and that turns his 4.25 ERA into a 5.25 ERA with the snap of a finger. And that's assuming his strikeout/walk/HR rates remain the same, which unfortunately they've gotten worse.

When we see Williams' meatballs, they're serving as two functions: more home runs allowed and less strikeouts, and less strikeouts simply results in more balls in play. If Williams strikes more batters out, he's helping reduce the total amount of balls in play hit off him. What he cannot control is the rate of hits off the balls in play that he gives up, aka his BABIP. That may sound confusing, but hopefully you see the difference there.

Then of course there's the factor of Williams' control also going down the pipes, resulting in an increase in his walk rate. That just creates more baserunners that leads to even more runs, but that's self-explanatory and everybody understands that part.

traderumor
05-08-2006, 06:00 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to find out Williams is hurt eventually. If he isn't, I'm sure there are a few takers to see that he is ;)