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View Full Version : Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter



OnBaseMachine
05-03-2006, 08:48 PM
Dunedin Top 1st

-Chris Gutierrez grounds out, shortstop Adam Rosales to first baseman Tonys Gutierrez.

-Ryan Patterson strikes out swinging.

-Ron Davenport pops out to shortstop Adam Rosales.

Bailey: 1 inning, 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 walk, 1 K

OnBaseMachine
05-03-2006, 09:06 PM
2nd inning, not so good.

-Home run
-Double
-Flyout, runner to third
-Sac Fly
-Flyout

Bailey: 2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 1 K

rdiersin
05-03-2006, 09:51 PM
2nd inning, not so good.

-Home run
-Double
-Flyout, runner to third
-Sac Fly
-Flyout

Bailey: 2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 1 K

Gave up another in the 3rd 1 more K and 2 BB.

OnBaseMachine
05-03-2006, 10:08 PM
4 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 BB(1 Ibb), 4 K

rdiersin
05-03-2006, 10:47 PM
Homer's night is done with 5.1IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 2BB, 4K, 1HR

Superdude
05-04-2006, 12:08 AM
That sucks. :(

traderumor
05-04-2006, 12:12 AM
No Happy Birthday for Homer. He is so inconsistent.

dougdirt
05-04-2006, 12:53 AM
Sucks for Homer on his birthday. He will rebound next start though, I just have a feeling.

Aronchis
05-04-2006, 01:34 AM
A crappy night for the whole organization. Krivsky probably tripped over a wire and broke his nose on the fall...........

OnBaseMachine
05-04-2006, 08:02 AM
Inconsistent is his middle name.

traderumor
05-04-2006, 08:47 AM
Inconsistent is his middle name.Yup, and absent are all those folks who were just blasting me as negative and pessimistic because I pointed that out as a reason to not get overly excited about the 6 innings of no-hit ball. I haven't seen those folks posting here yet.

OSURedLeg
05-04-2006, 09:00 AM
Yup, and absent are all those folks who were just blasting me as negative and pessimistic because I pointed that out as a reason to not get overly excited about the 6 innings of no-hit ball. I haven't seen those folks posting here yet.

I don't think one bad outing is going to change the mindsets of the people on here that are Homer backers. I personally think you're overly pessimistic as well, but in the same regard I think all the let downs this organization has had with its young pitching warrants it to some degree. But as far as Homer's outing last night, he would have had a mediocre performance at 51/3 innings & 3 earned runs given up had they not brought in what appears to be the weakest reliever in Sarasota, Kyle Edens - who then let both of the runners he inherited score. I'm not going to get down on Homer because he's a 20 year old that has not learned to show consistency with his control yet. His mechanics continue to be really sound, hitters continue to have fits with him, and when his control comes around & he's no longer putting runners on base - this kid is going to fly through our system.

traderumor
05-04-2006, 10:19 AM
I don't think one bad outing is going to change the mindsets of the people on here that are Homer backers. I personally think you're overly pessimistic as well, but in the same regard I think all the let downs this organization has had with its young pitching warrants it to some degree. But as far as Homer's outing last night, he would have had a mediocre performance at 51/3 innings & 3 earned runs given up had they not brought in what appears to be the weakest reliever in Sarasota, Kyle Edens - who then let both of the runners he inherited score. I'm not going to get down on Homer because he's a 20 year old that has not learned to show consistency with his control yet. His mechanics continue to be really sound, hitters continue to have fits with him, and when his control comes around & he's no longer putting runners on base - this kid is going to fly through our system.

One bad outing? We are looking at year 2 of consistent mediocrity and too many downright stinker games sprinkled with a few flashes of brilliance. That is not an ace in the making. Further, if his mechanics were sound, he would not have to wait for his control to come around. Control comes from consistently being able to know where the ball is going, which comes from mechanical repitition.

So, unless you want to contend that his coach is always calling a bad game, or continue to blame a poor showing on bringing in a reliever that could not bail him out from a jam, the performance does not match up with your assessment of his mechanics. Yes, I am pessimistic that Homer Bailey is going to fulfill the unrealistic expectations being placed on him. I really hope Krivsky has a mind to move him at his shiniest moment.

And the ERA jumped to 3.98 with that performance. I suppose one day the proverbial light might come on. The wing and a prayer developmental system. No thanks.

tbball10
05-04-2006, 10:41 AM
you guys are idiots. like every bailey supporter has said, while he's working on his change up he is going to be inconsistent. but he's shown flashes of his potential, and like i said, as long as he stays healthy i'm happy and he will develop into a great starting pitcher.

jeez trade rumor, his era is 3.98 in the first week of may.....big deal

rdiersin
05-04-2006, 10:49 AM
you guys are idiots. like every bailey supporter has said, while he's working on his change up he is going to be inconsistent. but he's shown flashes of his potential, and like i said, as long as he stays healthy i'm happy and he will develop into a great starting pitcher.

jeez trade rumor, his era is 3.98 in the first week of may.....big deal


So its idiotic to have doubts about a pitcher that hasn't dominated the lowest levels of the minors? Sheesh, I guess I better just stop grad school, because I'm an idiot. I'm an idiot for looking at the chances of first round draft picks and seeing that the 1st round HS pitcher draft pick has the lowest chance of having success in the majors. I guess I should just forget all objective data and just support Bailey because he's a Reds 1st round HS pitching prospect, and we've had a ton of success with those.

tbball10
05-04-2006, 10:55 AM
yup, grad school has a lot to do with baseball. he's only 20 give him some time.

rdiersin
05-04-2006, 10:56 AM
yup, grad school has a lot to do with baseball. he's only 20 give him some time.

Niether does you calling people idiots just because they don't agree with you, that was kind of the point. Yes, he is only 20 and it is early in the season. Nobody is saying give up on him. They are saying let him dominate before people start calling him our future ace, because that's what's happening. People are annointing him the next great pitcher. "He was our #1 draft pick, he has to be good. He came from Texas, where Josh Beckett and Kerry Wood and Roger Clemens came from. He throws hard and has a power curve....." On and on and on. But he hasn't put it all together. I certainly hope he does, and may even feel that he will, but he has to show it. What is so wrong with that. He hasn't done it. He hasn't shown any kind of consistency. Will he? Maybe, maybe not.

traderumor
05-04-2006, 11:07 AM
you guys are idiots. like every bailey supporter has said, while he's working on his change up he is going to be inconsistent. but he's shown flashes of his potential, and like i said, as long as he stays healthy i'm happy and he will develop into a great starting pitcher.

jeez trade rumor, his era is 3.98 in the first week of may.....big deal

Ok, at the end of the season last year, his ERA was 4.43, his WHIP was 1.46. I see a trend developing.

I did a little homework, picked a few current aces and checked out their minor league careers. Here's what I found:

Roy Oswalt
Minors-6 yrs. 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.11 K/9, 2.51 W/9
Majors-5 yrs. 3.07 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.80 K/9, 2.06 W/9

Rich Harden
Minors-5 y, 2.99/1.17/10.89/4.06
Majors-3 y, 3.60/1.27/8.14/3.76

Jason Schmidt
Minors-6y, 3.41/1.33/8.39/3.82
Majors-11y, 3.95/1.32/8.01/3.55

Dontrelle Willis
Minors-3y, 2.03/0.93/7.38/1.66
Majors-3y, 3.27/1.25/6.83/2.64

Josh Beckett
Minors-4y, 1.97/0.97/11.59/2.15
Majors-5y, 3.46/1.23/8.97/3.30

A good comp I found for Bailey is AJ Burnett. Power pitcher, control and command issues, flashes of brilliance but never living up to expectations. Take a look:

AJ Burnett
Minors-7y, 3.88/1.38/10.77/5.52
Majors-7y, 3.73/1.28/7.94/3.97

And I have always love AJ because his stuff can be so dominating, but then he is so dang frustrating because you look up and the other team has 3 or 4 runs and his pitch count is up, yet he seemingly dominated the other team. A homer here, a few walks and a base hit. And that seems to be Homer's MO. Now, you might argue that Burnett made a lot of money that way, which is true, but then think of the initial investment the Reds already have in Bailey and then the kind of money AJ made when someone is finally betting on him hitting his prime for them. Talk about pyrite.

M2
05-04-2006, 11:08 AM
you guys are idiots. like every bailey supporter has said, while he's working on his change up he is going to be inconsistent. but he's shown flashes of his potential, and like i said, as long as he stays healthy i'm happy and he will develop into a great starting pitcher.

jeez trade rumor, his era is 3.98 in the first week of may.....big deal

A) The kid was selected with the #7 pick in the draft. I don't think it's too much to ask that he be able to string a few quality performances together almost two years later.

B) The FSL is a pitcher's haven. Guys like Matt Garza, Jair Jurrjens, Phillip Hughes, Kevin Slowey, Sean Gallagher, Alay Soler, Yovani Gallardo, Scott Elbert, Mike Pelfrey and Cole Hamels have been tearing through that league, most with ERAs less than half what Bailey's sporting these days. This is a league where top pitchers dominate, not one where they struggle.

C) If Bailey is ever to become something special, one of these days he's going to have to do special things on a consistent basis. Right now, he is what he is -- a kid with the potential to become something much better, but far from the head of the class. It's nice that every now and then he does something notable to get the bees buzzing, but that's not the hallmark of a kid who deserves an "ace" label.

dougdirt
05-04-2006, 11:40 AM
He is 20. He is working on learning his changeup which at the time is mediocre at best. He is refining his curve which is a bit above average. Am I worried that he "gave up" 5 runs? No, like another poster said, he left runners on base and his bullpen buddy Kyle Edens boasting his 6.92 ERA and his 21 hits in 13 innings came in to get rocked. The first two hitters off Edens faces smashed doubles. Yes, Bailey was responsible for those runners, but it didnt help that the worst bullpen guy around came in to relieve him and got absolutely rocked.
All that said, If Bailey is still struggling at the end of May next year, then I will start to worry. Until then, I am not going to be worried about it because the kid is still VERY young and is working on his pitches.

traderumor
05-04-2006, 11:47 AM
He is 20. He is working on learning his changeup which at the time is mediocre at best. He is refining his curve which is a bit above average. Am I worried that he "gave up" 5 runs? No, like another poster said, he left runners on base and his bullpen buddy Kyle Edens boasting his 6.92 ERA and his 21 hits in 13 innings came in to get rocked. The first two hitters off Edens faces smashed doubles. Yes, Bailey was responsible for those runners, but it didnt help that the worst bullpen guy around came in to relieve him and got absolutely rocked.
All that said, If Bailey is still struggling at the end of May next year, then I will start to worry. Until then, I am not going to be worried about it because the kid is still VERY young and is working on his pitches.

So, other minor leaguers posting much more impressive numbers at a similar age are not "working on pitches?" You do not have a problem with a high first round pick "working on his pitches" to the point that the numbers would reflect someone who is a total project, if that is indeed the problem? Shouldn't an ace be polishing pitches that take him from very good to dominant, and what so far has indicated that Homer is even very good?

What I do not get at all is the justification for a bullpenner letting in runs on baserunners Homer put on base. So what? That is what WHIP is all about--baserunners become potential runs. If Homer didn't put the guys on base, then they couldn't be let in by the reliever. Those are the rules for every pitcher and their ERA, so why should Homer be excused for runners that are his responsibility eventually scoring?

flyer85
05-04-2006, 11:51 AM
Homer is likely two years away from helping the major league club unless the Reds want to rush him.

Seems to me he should be left in High A until he shows he can e consistent from start to start.

Generally the jump from A to AA is regarded as the toughest in the minors.

dougdirt
05-04-2006, 12:20 PM
So, other minor leaguers posting much more impressive numbers at a similar age are not "working on pitches?" You do not have a problem with a high first round pick "working on his pitches" to the point that the numbers would reflect someone who is a total project, if that is indeed the problem? Shouldn't an ace be polishing pitches that take him from very good to dominant, and what so far has indicated that Homer is even very good?

What I do not get at all is the justification for a bullpenner letting in runs on baserunners Homer put on base. So what? That is what WHIP is all about--baserunners become potential runs. If Homer didn't put the guys on base, then they couldn't be let in by the reliever. Those are the rules for every pitcher and their ERA, so why should Homer be excused for runners that are his responsibility eventually scoring?

With the case of some, and notice I said some of the guys you listed, are much more finess pitchers. Homer can dial it up on the gun, and in HS he probably didnt have to throw many change ups. With that fastball he had, guys knew it and they had to adjust for it. If he dropped in a curve, and they were waiting for that fastball, regardless of how good or bad it was, they were left looking like a complete fool. Now that the hitters are more advanced, he doesnt have that option and he is needing to work on his other pitchers a lot more.
Finesse type pitchers, throughout high school had already been working on their breaking stuff and change a lot more becuase their fastball wasnt enough by itself to blow guys away.

I dont want to give Homer a pass for the runners he left on, but it does have to be said. If a team has a good pen, then the runners the starters leave on base usually dont score. The Sarasota bullpen has three guys in it with ERA's over 6. As for Baileys WHIP, its 1.04 and I am hardly worried about that.

traderumor
05-04-2006, 12:29 PM
Ray Oswalt, finesse pitcher? Josh Beckett, finesse pitcher? Rich Harden, finesse pitcher? Jason Schmidt, who has been a late bloomer, isn't even really a finesse pitcher. Maybe Willis. So, that's one person on the whole list who is finesse, unless we have differing definitions of what constitutes a finesse pitcher.

As for Homer's WHIP, I suspect it will end up in the 1.30-1.40 range before all is said and done for this year.

dougdirt
05-04-2006, 01:21 PM
TR I was talking about the lsit of guys you put together who are dominating the FSL.

Jair Jurrjens is a finesse pitcher. His fastball sits in the high 80's and low 90's. He also is either ON or OFF with his breaking stuff. Last year he went on an 8 or 9 game tear where his ERA sat slightly under 2.00, then he went out and got hit again.

Matt Garza is 2 1/2 years older than Bailey is, came out of college. He should be more advanced than Bailey. Garza went into college with a fastball that he had no control over. His freshman year he went 1-6 with a 9.55 ERA.

Philip Hughes doesnt throw quite as hard as Bailey, but he is close. He does have more control of his secondary pitches though. His curve isnt as good as Baileys from scouting reports, but his slider is real good and he commands them. Command of his secondary pitches is why Hughes puts up better numbers than Bailey.

Kevin Slowey is another college pitcher who is 2 years older than Bailey. He has a fastball that sits in the high 80s and low 90s. Slowey throws a slider and a changeup that is approaching a plus pitch.

Sean Gallagher from what I have read sits in the low 90s with his fastball that can touch 94 at times and has a very good curve, a straight change and a slider. Scouting reports have said that he has very good command, but does not have overpowering stuff and his change and slider are both below average.

Alay Soler is 26 years old. I am not going into that one other than trying to compare him to a 19 year old is just very poor.

Yovani Gallardo is a power pitcher with a very good curveball. Last year in A ball his k ratio was lower than Baileys was, but this year its a bit higher. Its just May 4th though. This year their hit ratios are 6.75 to 6.82 in favor of Gallardo over Bailey and walk ratios are 2.36 to 2.55 per 9 in favor of Gallardo. They both have very good WHIP's of 1.01 and 1.04. The difference is in ERA 1.69 to 3.98. What the difference is there, I do not know becuase with numbers that are so close in everything else, their ERA should be a lot closer than 2.30 apart. Defense maybe? Bullpen maybe? I dont know, but something doesnt seem right.

Scott Elbert is one of those guys who has by different accounts either sits in the low 90s with his fastball or touches the low 90s with it while sitting in the high 80s with it. He has control over his breaking stuff. He is a finesse pitcher.

Pelfrey is a college pitcher who is 2 years older than Bailey. He is more polished. You should expect him to be better than Bailey in the same league.

Cole Hamels is absolutely in my opinion the best pitcher in the minor leagues. He has amazing control and amazing stuff. Hamels however is 2 1/2 years older than Bailey is, but also made his 4th stop in the FSL this year before his fast promotions. Hamels made a combined 12 starts in 3 years in the FSL before this year. I am not going to try and say anything against Cole, the kid is real.

M2
05-04-2006, 01:41 PM
doug, I listed the guys who are dominating the FSL, not traderumor.

You can come up with a a zillion excuses for why other pitchers are pitching the pants off of Bailey in the FSL (and we both know that was just a thumbnail of guys who are absoloutely wrecking that level and that there's dozens of others to filter in between them and where Homer's at).

If your argument is that Homer's not really ready to tool on High A hitters (though other guys his age like Elbert, Hughes and Gallagher are -- all of whom thrived in Low A as well) then that's not an argument FOR Homer Bailey. The FSL is probably the most pitching-friendly circuit in the minors. It's a league in which pitchers of all stripes shine. If Homer can't do that in the FSL this year then I would suggest that, at a bare minimum, he's a lot farther away than anyone would like him to be.

BTW, I agree with you that this most recent start shouldn't be used as evidence that Homer is a bad pitcher. Nor should his previous start be used as evidence that Homer's a great pitcher. He's an inconsistent pitcher with flaws a lot greater than enthusiasts like to admit and a lot of hard work in front him before he ranks among the better pitchers in his league or age grouping.

dougdirt
05-04-2006, 02:14 PM
M2, TR sorry for mixing up the posts. I skim through things at times and blend them together.

As for me having excuses for Bailey, maybe I am a little bit. But I dont find them to far fetched either.

The FSL is a very pitcher friendly league, but where Sarasota plays, they have one of the more hitter friendly parks in the league. Someone had the park factors for the leagues and the teams around here before, but I cant seem to find them.

Lets take a look at Bailey's home and road splits though. Small sample size of course, but lets look anyways.

Home: 15.2ip, 18 hits, 2bb, 14k, 5.74 ERA
Away: 16.0ip, 6 hits, 7bb, 19k, 2.00 ERA

Both home and away he has 3 starts each. On the road he is dominating and at home he is struggling. It will be interesting to see how it plays out over the course of the entire season as this is obviously a small sample size and could be attributed to luck or just chance.

After I get back from seeing Kremchek this afternoon I plan on taking another look into his stats a little more deeply, but I have no time right now to do it. So expect a little bit more later tonight on breaking down Baileys season so far.

dougdirt
05-04-2006, 02:16 PM
Oh and M2, you hit it on the head with Bailey about his last two starts. I will admit I am probably a little defensive of the guy becuase I really like him (kind of like I am with Griffey but not to the same extent). Oh well, it will happen sometimes.

reds44
05-04-2006, 02:21 PM
wait he threw a no hitter?

M2
05-04-2006, 02:29 PM
doug, interesting home and away numbers on Bailey so far. Though I maintain the best hitting park in the FSL would probably be the best pitching park in the Texas League.

Chip R
05-04-2006, 02:46 PM
wait he threw a no hitter?

Len Barker threw a perfect game once.

dougdirt
05-04-2006, 02:55 PM
Reds44, Bailey did not throw a no hitter. Two starts ago, he went 6 innings of no hit and 9 strikeout ball. First reliever came in and went 2 innings of no hit ball. Second reliever came in and got the first guy out in the 9th before the opposing teams leadoff hitter laid down a bunt single to get the only hit of the game.

Aronchis
05-04-2006, 03:40 PM
Bailey and Hughes Krates are the same, Hughes ability to control his secondary pitches and get them to go where he wants them to go is the main difference in looking at hits per 9. Bailey had his 3 pitches working quite well in the 6 no hit innings, but they took off on him again last night.

reds44
05-04-2006, 03:48 PM
Reds44, Bailey did not throw a no hitter. Two starts ago, he went 6 innings of no hit and 9 strikeout ball. First reliever came in and went 2 innings of no hit ball. Second reliever came in and got the first guy out in the 9th before the opposing teams leadoff hitter laid down a bunt single to get the only hit of the game.
Oh ok thanks.

MikeS21
05-04-2006, 04:45 PM
I'll say it again, like I did last week. Whenever I start getting a fuzzy feeling about Homer Bailey, I remind myself that even Dave Williams put up better numbers at High-A than Bailey has. Williams had a sub-3.00 ERA while pitching 100+ innings in the FSL. And I'll bet he was "working" on pitches too.

When Homer starts putting up Josh Beckett like numbers at High-A (ERA under 2.00 over 90+ innings), THEN I might start to get excited.

Aronchis
05-04-2006, 05:10 PM
Bailey may have also gotten into baseball later than most hurlers do, which describes his "struggles" mastering his secondary pitches, which is the only thing keeping him away from the majors. He already has a top notch delivery(which IMO made him a top 10 pick, if not top 5 to some) and power 4 seamer.

Mastering those secondary pitches though can be quite the challenge. Does Bailey have the work ethic to do it? If he does, it will be like Adam Dunn in 2001, the rest will be history. If not, he will go down as one of the most disappointing talents of the last 10 years.

Decisions, decisions.

Betterread
05-04-2006, 10:47 PM
As for Homer's WHIP, I suspect it will end up in the 1.30-1.40 range before all is said and done for this year.

Your logic (and I agree) is that Bailey is currently still too inconsistent to be labelled and elite prospect. His big potential for the future is what keeps posters' interest in him. Right now his WHIP is 1.04, yet you provide us with his potential whip. Why? It goes against your logic that he be judged on his current performance. As a fan, your interest in his future shows thru your critique of his present.

traderumor
05-05-2006, 12:16 AM
Your logic (and I agree) is that Bailey is currently still too inconsistent to be labelled and elite prospect. His big potential for the future is what keeps posters' interest in him. Right now his WHIP is 1.04, yet you provide us with his potential whip. Why? It goes against your logic that he be judged on his current performance. As a fan, your interest in his future shows thru your critique of his present.No, his current performance is based on too little data to be relied upon (6 starts). If he's sitting on that number in August, then we'd all be happy and I'd be pleasantly surprised.

registerthis
05-05-2006, 04:02 PM
Yup, and absent are all those folks who were just blasting me as negative and pessimistic because I pointed that out as a reason to not get overly excited about the 6 innings of no-hit ball. I haven't seen those folks posting here yet.

Let's not forget those that thought the major league roster would be a good place for him.

Aronchis
05-05-2006, 04:23 PM
Let's not forget those that thought the major league roster would be a good place for him.

I forgot about them because they were far and few between. The no hitter shouldn't be dismissed, but what could be. No reason to be negative on Homer's ability yet, it is still there(alas, unlike somebody like Richie Gardner who clearly had something wrong with him last year), it is between the ears which needs to develope.

traderumor
05-05-2006, 05:58 PM
I forgot about them because they were far and few between. The no hitter shouldn't be dismissed, but what could be. No reason to be negative on Homer's ability yet, it is still there(alas, unlike somebody like Richie Gardner who clearly had something wrong with him last year), it is between the ears which needs to develope.That's funny, because those who I see exercising caution on Homer as a serious prospect have really never questioned his ability, but have honed in on his performance, his inconsistency, and the significant odds against a HS pitcher ever making a meaningful contribution, esp. as a staff ace, at the major league level. There are a lot of guys who were identified as having "ability" (translated as "potential") selling insurance and coaching their son's little league team.

Aronchis
05-05-2006, 07:04 PM
That's funny, because those who I see exercising caution on Homer as a serious prospect have really never questioned his ability, but have honed in on his performance, his inconsistency, and the significant odds against a HS pitcher ever making a meaningful contribution, esp. as a staff ace, at the major league level. There are a lot of guys who were identified as having "ability" (translated as "potential") selling insurance and coaching their son's little league team.

Whats so funny about it? That Homer has a great delivery? Not to me. That is the reason why to be happy about Bailey. The chances of a major injury are low. That increases the odds that Bailey will have the chance to put it together and pitch in the Majors. In otherwords, all that inconsistancy you complain about, will pass at some point. The key is between the ears. It also means Bailey isn't going to be a 20 year old prodigy either. Take the good with the bad. If the right deal comes along, we can bid goodbye to him, but to slam that his ability isn't going to be a determining factor in his development is wrong, it most surely is.

Those guys selling car insurance, also went through major arm surguries.

M2
05-06-2006, 04:11 PM
Whats so funny about it? That Homer has a great delivery? Not to me. That is the reason why to be happy about Bailey. The chances of a major injury are low. That increases the odds that Bailey will have the chance to put it together and pitch in the Majors. In otherwords, all that inconsistancy you complain about, will pass at some point. The key is between the ears. It also means Bailey isn't going to be a 20 year old prodigy either. Take the good with the bad. If the right deal comes along, we can bid goodbye to him, but to slam that his ability isn't going to be a determining factor in his development is wrong, it most surely is.

Those guys selling car insurance, also went through major arm surguries.

I think it's a major assumption that Bailey's delivery will spare him arm surgery or that his inconsistency will just disappear. I tend to believe both of those are wishful BS. He's inconsistent partially because he's got an inconsistent release point and arm slot. If he's got an inconsistent release point and arm slot then he does not a Skippy smooth delivery and he could tweak something in his shoulder or elbow just like anyone else.

Maybe Homer avoids the injury bug and maybe he doesn't. Maybe he straightens out his wrinkles or maybe he doesn't. Maybe he moves forward or maybe he regresses. No one knows.

Aronchis
05-06-2006, 05:17 PM
I think it's a major assumption that Bailey's delivery will spare him arm surgery or that his inconsistency will just disappear. I tend to believe both of those are wishful BS. He's inconsistent partially because he's got an inconsistent release point and arm slot. If he's got an inconsistent release point and arm slot then he does not a Skippy smooth delivery and he could tweak something in his shoulder or elbow just like anyone else.

Maybe Homer avoids the injury bug and maybe he doesn't. Maybe he straightens out his wrinkles or maybe he doesn't. Maybe he moves forward or maybe he regresses. No one knows.

Yep, no one knows. He is a scouts dream right now, a statman's nightmare. Hopefully things come together and we sing in harmony. ;)

traderumor
05-06-2006, 06:16 PM
Whats so funny about it? That Homer has a great delivery? Not to me. That is the reason why to be happy about Bailey. The chances of a major injury are low. That increases the odds that Bailey will have the chance to put it together and pitch in the Majors. In otherwords, all that inconsistancy you complain about, will pass at some point. The key is between the ears. It also means Bailey isn't going to be a 20 year old prodigy either. Take the good with the bad. If the right deal comes along, we can bid goodbye to him, but to slam that his ability isn't going to be a determining factor in his development is wrong, it most surely is.

Those guys selling car insurance, also went through major arm surguries.

First of all, even pitchers with "great deliveries" encounter arm difficulties. Good mechanics is an oxymoron when it comes to the violence done to an arm to toss it 95 MPH, snap off curves and sliders, etc. I'm sure there are many things that help, but it seems that only a very select few escape arm troubles at some point in their career.

Second of all, if people who have studied pitching motions and the correlations to injury are doing groundbreaking stuff (such as Will Carroll), I do find it laughable for someone to claim that they have identified Homer as having a great delivery that gives them great confidence for future success. Yet, here we are with this great delivery, 95 FB, plus curve, and A ballers are handling him more often than he is dominating them. I'll take a guy who actually performs at a high level over the guy who causes people to believe he will perform at a higher level than he currently is every day of the week.

What it comes down to is no matter how one tries to explain away Homer's subpar numbers relative to the hype and hopes, he still must perform at a higher level than he has to date.

traderumor
05-06-2006, 06:20 PM
I would be curious for Homer supporters who would like to weigh in, how often have you actually seen him pitch? I'll admit it, I have not seen him pitch one inning, my analysis is based solely on performance indicators. But I would imagine that those who speak highly despite the lack of performance have seen him pitch quite a bit.