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UPRedsFan
05-05-2006, 08:52 AM
Staff ERA is now 4.43, 9th place in the NL. Staff strikeouts rank 6th.

How many of you think they have a chance to keep the ERA under 5 for the season this year? And if they do, what do some of you statisticians project for a win total?

2001MUgrad
05-05-2006, 11:52 AM
under 5 I'd say the certainly win more than they lose :)

Blarkin
05-05-2006, 11:59 AM
I don't see the Reds ERA staying under 5. The GABP is a hitter’s park, and the reds being in the central division face a lot of good hitting teams. Yes the reds can still win a lot of games with their hitting, but I do not see teams like the cards, astros, cubs, and brewers coming in to our stadium and not putting some runs on the board. As of right now we really only have two defining pitchers. The bats will get hot as the season goes along, pitchers will be figured out and runs will be scored. So I say no way the reds keep the ERA under 5.

RedsManRick
05-05-2006, 12:17 PM
I don't see the Reds ERA staying under 5. The GABP is a hitter’s park, and the reds being in the central division face a lot of good hitting teams. Yes the reds can still win a lot of games with their hitting, but I do not see teams like the cards, astros, cubs, and brewers coming in to our stadium and not putting some runs on the board. As of right now we really only have two defining pitchers. The bats will get hot as the season goes along, pitchers will be figured out and runs will be scored. So I say no way the reds keep the ERA under 5.

While this has been covered extensively elsewhere, the park factors for GABP to date (since it opened) show it as a homer-friendly, but run neutral park. It is very double/triple unfriendly.

Based on the numbers, the Reds hitting & pitching the last few years are more reflective of their hitting & pitching talent than park effects.

A number of us have also gone through the exercise of showing how the team can maintain an ERA under 5.00 for the entire season. Basically, we need to NOT have a starter get 30+ starts with a mid 6.00 ERA and we need the 11th and 12th guys in the bullpen to not implode completely.

I'm not saying it will or won't happen, but it very reasonably could happen. Do a search through my post history to find the full explication.

registerthis
05-05-2006, 12:37 PM
While this has been covered extensively elsewhere, the park factors for GABP to date (since it opened) show it as a homer-friendly, but run neutral park. It is very double/triple unfriendly.

Based on the numbers, the Reds hitting & pitching the last few years are more reflective of their hitting & pitching talent than park effects.

A number of us have also gone through the exercise of showing how the team can maintain an ERA under 5.00 for the entire season. Basically, we need to NOT have a starter get 30+ starts with a mid 6.00 ERA and we need the 11th and 12th guys in the bullpen to not implode completely.

I'm not saying it will or won't happen, but it very reasonably could happen. Do a search through my post history to find the full explication.

This is very true. i would add one point, however. For the Reds to keep that staff ERA under 5, I think another starter needs to be brought in. Between Claussen, Ramirez, Williams, Milton, Wilson etc. I think it's entirely possible that one of them will accumulate a high number of starts and a 6+ ERA. One or even two might surprise, but one is bound to hit his career norms.

If the Reds are able to pick up another starter that's capable of pitching a good number of innings with a 4.5 ERA, I think this team can and will compete.

2001MUgrad
05-05-2006, 01:30 PM
I get tired of seeing the HR numbers by park. It has less to do with the Park as it does the team that plays there. The Reds have a team with a very powerful offense that hits lots of HR's period. The other thing is that they have a pitching staff, particularly starting staff that are notorious for giving up a ton of HR's. I don't think the Power numbers would be a lot different if the Reds called another park home unless it was say RFK or something just so out of the ordinary.

PuffyPig
05-05-2006, 01:37 PM
This is very true. i would add one point, however. For the Reds to keep that staff ERA under 5, I think another starter needs to be brought in. Between Claussen, Ramirez, Williams, Milton, Wilson etc. I think it's entirely possible that one of them will accumulate a high number of starts and a 6+ ERA. One or even two might surprise, but one is bound to hit his career norms.



Not necessaily disagreeing with you, but none of Claussen, Williams, Milton or Wilson has an ERA anywhere close to 6.00+ as a "career norm".

RedsManRick
05-05-2006, 01:39 PM
I get tired of seeing the HR numbers by park. It has less to do with the Park as it does the team that plays there. The Reds have a team with a very powerful offense that hits lots of HR's period. The other thing is that they have a pitching staff, particularly starting staff that are notorious for giving up a ton of HR's. I don't think the Power numbers would be a lot different if the Reds called another park home unless it was say RFK or something just so out of the ordinary.

What park factor does is compare how many homers are hit (or runs scored, doubles, etc.) in GABP by the Reds and their opponents relative to the number of homers hit by the Reds and their opponents on the road.

So the park factor is the ratio of these things. So a 1.2 Home Run park factor means that the Reds AND their opponents hit 20% more homers at home than on the road. Essentially, this controls for the quality of the team playing in that park. That is to say, if the Reds lost Adam Dunn tomorrow, their park factor would not change.

Again, Park Factors are not counts of events -- they are ratios comparing the rate at which events happen at one stadium compared to other stadiums.

buckeyenut
05-05-2006, 08:43 PM
I believe Harang and Arroyo end the year 3.50-3.75. We need Claussen to end the year 4.00-4.25. Then we are really looking for 4.50-4.75 out of two of Ramirez, Milton, Williams, and Wilson, and you could even throw in Germano. I like Ramirez's chances, although it might be too early for him to be in the majors. The other guys need good (not great, but good) years in my estimation to hit that target.

membengal
05-06-2006, 10:26 AM
It will if six out of every seven runs given up continue to be unearned...

VR
05-06-2006, 12:51 PM
3.99 Over the last 30 days (9th in majors)
2.07 Over the last 7 days (leaders)

Good combination recently, I think bully ERA is under 2 over the last 3 weeks or so.

FoReel
05-06-2006, 02:55 PM
I don't see the Reds ERA staying under 5. The GABP is a hitter’s park, and the reds being in the central division face a lot of good hitting teams. Yes the reds can still win a lot of games with their hitting, but I do not see teams like the cards, astros, cubs, and brewers coming in to our stadium and not putting some runs on the board. As of right now we really only have two defining pitchers. The bats will get hot as the season goes along, pitchers will be figured out and runs will be scored. So I say no way the reds keep the ERA under 5.

GABP might be a hitters park but those are not hitting teams besides the Card, right now there winning on all pitching.