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View Full Version : Reds really need to sign Harang long term...



Spitball
05-05-2006, 11:43 AM
"It seems like every time he goes out there he gets better and better and better," said Adam Dunn. "Just talking to other people on other teams that are facing him, he's not a comfortable at-bat, when you've got 6-(feet)-7 or whatever he is coming at you. And he knows how to pitch. He's going to be good for a long time."

Harang is very good right now, and he will get better. With Arroyo already in the fold through 2008, the Reds would be in great shape if they could seal a deal with Harang for several more years.

2001MUgrad
05-05-2006, 11:48 AM
I would agree with that. He seemed decent last year. This year so far he seems really good and he'll be 28 next year, so he still has room to grow as a pitcher.

UGADaddy
05-05-2006, 11:50 AM
Hopefully new ownership will turn around the old tradition of not signing good players long term. He turns 27 on Tuesday. I'd love to see him in a Reds' uni for another 5 or 6 years. How much do you think he'd be asking for? And when does his current contract end?

Dunner44
05-05-2006, 11:54 AM
I'd really like to know when his current contract is up. If we can avoid arbitration with Aaron and lock him up for the next few years, then that would be huge for the team. I would have been willing to do this after his performance last year, and he seems to get better every year. If we can keep him and Bronson as our 1 and 2 guys, we have a very good front of the roatation. I think Harang has the ability to be a #1 starter in this league, and I can't wait to see what he can continue to do this season.

redsmetz
05-05-2006, 12:03 PM
I'd really like to know when his current contract is up. If we can avoid arbitration with Aaron and lock him up for the next few years, then that would be huge for the team. I would have been willing to do this after his performance last year, and he seems to get better every year. If we can keep him and Bronson as our 1 and 2 guys, we have a very good front of the roatation. I think Harang has the ability to be a #1 starter in this league, and I can't wait to see what he can continue to do this season.

He's on a 1 year deal right now.




Aaron Harang p
1 year/$2.35M (2006)

re-signed 1/06 (avoided arbitration)

1 year/$0.44M (2005)

1 year/$0.36M (2004)
ML service: 3.061

M2
05-05-2006, 12:12 PM
I'd really like to know when his current contract is up. If we can avoid arbitration with Aaron and lock him up for the next few years, then that would be huge for the team. I would have been willing to do this after his performance last year, and he seems to get better every year. If we can keep him and Bronson as our 1 and 2 guys, we have a very good front of the roatation. I think Harang has the ability to be a #1 starter in this league, and I can't wait to see what he can continue to do this season.

He's currently working on a one-year deal, though the Reds hold his rights until after the 2008 season.

I don't know that I'd put him in the #1 category. I suppose he could imitate one in a career year, but he's probably going to be a dependable #3 guy (200+ IP, sub-4.00 ERA) for a few years. Arroyo fits into the same mold. For a small market team like the Reds, a trio of #3 guys to go with a good offense, a solid bullpen and a capable defense could be just the ticket for a regular run at the postseason.

Anyway, like Spitball, I'd love to see the team hammer out a three-year extension with Harang.

traderumor
05-05-2006, 12:18 PM
I agree as well. After a little bit of a bumpy start, his last 3 have been just magnificent examples of what can happen when you couple a tick above average fastball and slider with the ability to consistently locate to the target.

Let's talk dollars. If you give him 3 years, I'd be guessing it would be in the $12-15M range to get it done. With the steady improvement and an unexpected higher ceiling (meaning I think he has exceeded expectations each season he's been here), I see that as a reasonable offer.

kbrake
05-05-2006, 12:30 PM
I thought they tried to talk multi-year deal with him this offseason and him and his agent declined saying they wanted to wait and see where things were after this season.

dougdirt
05-05-2006, 01:21 PM
Let's talk dollars. If you give him 3 years, I'd be guessing it would be in the $12-15M range to get it done. With the steady improvement and an unexpected higher ceiling (meaning I think he has exceeded expectations each season he's been here), I see that as a reasonable offer.

I would do that deal for Harang without a doubt. Hopefully something like that can happen.

PuffyPig
05-05-2006, 01:45 PM
I suppose he could imitate one in a career year, but he's probably going to be a dependable #3 guy (200+ IP, sub-4.00 ERA) for a few years.

Last year, Harang's 200+ inning and sub 4 ERA placed him 41st among starters (in terms of ERA). With 30 teams in the major leagues, I'd suggest that would place Harang as a dependable #2 starter, especially considering that Harang pitched at GABP and in front of Cincy's horrid defense. His stats last year closely resemble Mark Mulder, who's often considered a viable #2 starter type.

traderumor
05-05-2006, 01:49 PM
I would do that deal for Harang without a doubt. Hopefully something like that can happen.As I continue to think about that range, with $2.35 getting it done this year, that about 3.75/5/6.25 with a couple million signing bonus to give him some up front money might make a good deal for both parties. Add some incentives if he goes all nuts and performs like an ace so that he gets paid like one.

lollipopcurve
05-05-2006, 02:01 PM
I assume Krivsky had something to do with the LTCs Radke and Santana got in Minnesota. I'm optimistic he'll lock up Harang at some point. Would be a great move.

Spitball
05-05-2006, 02:29 PM
It would be nice to get him signed to a hometown (Arroyo type) contract before he starts to attract too much attention.

I love his Livan Hernandez-type inning eating capabilities...though, I hope he doesn't break down.

Gandalf the Red
05-05-2006, 02:35 PM
Let's talk dollars. If you give him 3 years, I'd be guessing it would be in the $12-15M range to get it done. With the steady improvement and an unexpected higher ceiling (meaning I think he has exceeded expectations each season he's been here), I see that as a reasonable offer.

:thumbup:
Yep, exactly...


Re: 4/23/06 - Reds vs. Brewers Game Thread

Harang spryly throws out the runner.

(Again sending mental telepathy to Krivsky: 3 years, $14 million. Get it done, Wayne.)

I'd actually prefer that Krivsky prioritize something like this right now, and worry about trading for another starter in June or July depending on how things are going. (I just think that the trade cost for a starter that'll actually help might be higher now than it would be in, say, late June--too many teams are still in the race and not wanting to deal pitching just yet.)

In the meantime, if Harang puts together a couple more months at his current pace, the opportunity to sign him to this kind of a three-year deal may pass us by...

indyred
05-05-2006, 04:28 PM
Wonder if he is looking to get out of GAB when he can...............I wouldn't mind signing him to a 3 year deal.....but I wouldn't give any pitcher more than 3 years.....are we going to have to overpay to keep our own pitcher's happy in GAB........

OnBaseMachine
05-05-2006, 04:31 PM
Wonder if he is looking to get out of GAB when he can...............I wouldn't mind signing him to a 3 year deal.....but I wouldn't give any pitcher more than 3 years.....are we going to have to overpay to keep our own pitcher's happy in GAB........

You are going waaaaaaaay overboard with your mindset that Great American Ballpark is an extreme hitter's park. The GAB is a good home run ballpark and that's it. It plays neutral on anything else. Tall grass in the infield and small gaps take away singles and doubles.

flyer85
05-05-2006, 04:35 PM
Watching the Reds play well is too much fun at the moment to focus on a LT deal for Harang. If it needs to happen it can certainly get done in the off season.

Highlifeman21
05-05-2006, 04:50 PM
I assume Krivsky had something to do with the LTCs Radke and Santana got in Minnesota. I'm optimistic he'll lock up Harang at some point. Would be a great move.


How's that one workin out for the Twins? Let's not forget about that gem they gave Joe Mays...

traderumor
05-05-2006, 05:21 PM
Watching the Reds play well is too much fun at the moment to focus on a LT deal for Harang. If it needs to happen it can certainly get done in the off season.Hopefully that policy went out the door with O'Brien or is sitting on John Allen's list of canned ideas that came with his "reassignment." Anytime is a good time to make an offer to one of your key players and keep him affordable while rewarding his success. Although I do see some merit for some contract negotiations not going on during the season (like when the sides are far apart so it is not a distraction).

traderumor
05-05-2006, 05:22 PM
How's that one workin out for the Twins? Let's not forget about that gem they gave Joe Mays...I notice you didn't bold Santana.

UC_Ken
05-05-2006, 05:46 PM
I was thinking about a Harang extention last night also. I think whoever suggested 3 yr/ 12-15 mil is low. I think with Aaron putting up a very good last year and a half he's over 5 mil. range. I'd sign him 4 years/24 mil. and be extremely excited about it. That would give us to quality pitchers for the next 2-3 years with Homer coming through the minors. Add another quality starter and we could be scary in '08. Of course we may be good enough to make the playoffs now.

Gandalf the Red
05-05-2006, 06:14 PM
I was thinking about a Harang extention last night also. I think whoever suggested 3 yr/ 12-15 mil is low. I think with Aaron putting up a very good last year and a half he's over 5 mil. range. I'd sign him 4 years/24 mil. and be extremely excited about it. That would give us to quality pitchers for the next 2-3 years with Homer coming through the minors. Add another quality starter and we could be scary in '08. Of course we may be good enough to make the playoffs now.

Maybe. The average per year is only a million different, but I'm a little leery about the four years. Of course, it's more or less Monopoly money as far as those of us on this board are concerned, so sure, what the heck ;)

Of course this depends in large part on how risk-averse Harang is. He could blow out his arm tomorrow. Or his numbers could take a dive. In which case a guaranteed 15 million might seem like a lot.

3 years at around 15 seems fair to me at this point--but that's just what I've been saying the past few weeks--if you wait two more months and he's racked up more than a dozen wins at the All-Star Break...then yeah, the Reds are going to have to cough up more... and obviously a long-term deal at that point becomes more of an economic burden if things go south next year or the year after.

Anyway, bottom line is I'd prioritize locking him up. And I think we ought to do it soon so the price is closer to Arroyo's than Milton's. This organization needs to start demonstrating some forward thinking--especially with pitchers who are A) starters and B) have actually demonstrated success at GAB...

traderumor
05-05-2006, 07:52 PM
I agree with Gandalf on the fourth year. Perhaps it could be a mutual option of $7-8M for a carrot, with a $500K buyout or something like that. I would try to avoid it though since he'd be pushing 32.

savafan
05-05-2006, 08:17 PM
I don't know that I'd put him in the #1 category. I suppose he could imitate one in a career year, but he's probably going to be a dependable #3 guy (200+ IP, sub-4.00 ERA) for a few years. Arroyo fits into the same mold. For a small market team like the Reds, a trio of #3 guys to go with a good offense, a solid bullpen and a capable defense could be just the ticket for a regular run at the postseason.



Worked for the '75-'76 Reds

George Foster
05-05-2006, 08:48 PM
I thought they tried to talk multi-year deal with him this offseason and him and his agent declined saying they wanted to wait and see where things were after this season.

That's why we need to sign him now on the "come" ( craps lingo).
If the Reds keep winning, the money will be their with increased attendance this summer and selling Reds merchandise. Sign him now, before it's to late. Take the chance that he is "for real" and do the deed. 5 million dollar signing bonus, 3 year deal, 18 million, plus incentives for 16 wins, 20 wins, etc.

This is assuming that he want's to stay in Cincinnati. He is a California boy, he might want to pitch for L.A. or S.F. Both teams have the $$$$ If that is the case, we have no chance. He is from San Diego, I doubt they have the $$$.

M2
05-06-2006, 09:35 AM
Last year, Harang's 200+ inning and sub 4 ERA placed him 41st among starters (in terms of ERA). With 30 teams in the major leagues, I'd suggest that would place Harang as a dependable #2 starter, especially considering that Harang pitched at GABP and in front of Cincy's horrid defense. His stats last year closely resemble Mark Mulder, who's often considered a viable #2 starter type.

I don't like dividing it up that way. I'm kind of Platonian when it comes to define pitcher quality. There's a universal model for what 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 starters are. A guy who throws 200+ IP with an ERA in the high 3.00s is a #3 starter. A lot of teams don't have a single starter that good (e.g. the Kansas City Royals and the 2003-2004 Reds).

So if you divide by 30 you skew the sample toward bad pitchers. IMO, if you want to create a winning baseball model then you need to think in terms of absolutes and not relatives. There's probably only a dozen #1 guys and 20 #2 guys in all of baseball.

Unassisted
05-06-2006, 09:44 AM
It takes two to tango on a deal like this. If Harang's agent is determined not to come to the bargaining table until after the season, it won't matter how many times the Reds ask him to do so.

MaineRed
05-06-2006, 10:25 AM
As far as the Reds are concerned, Harang is a canidate to be a number one. So is Arroyo. At the same time they are not among the 12 or so #1 pitchers out there that M2 talks about.

I agree that the Reds best chance is to find another guy like Harang/Arroyo and then put a good offense behind them. Call them 1, 2 and 3 or 3a, 3b and 3c. Either way, the Reds potentially could compete on a semi-regular basis with 3 guys like that. Especially with some bullpen help and an above average defense.

I too would like to see Harang locked up. To me he doesn't seem like a guy prone to breakdown. He looks to have a pretty easy motion. I don't sit and chart the guys pitches but he gun rarely seems to go as high as you know he COULD throw, if he wanted to. IMO, that is why JN is able to leave him in to throw 111 or 115 pitches.

I think now would be a great time to try to sign him to an Arroyo type deal. Aaron seems like a guy on the upswing. And he knows how to pitch. The Reds need to keep guys like this around.

As far as Bronson goes, how long do the Reds hold his rights? I know he signed a 3 year deal with Boston but does the trade give him an out, earlier than the 3 years or is he here for the duration?

indyred
05-06-2006, 10:36 AM
It takes two to tango on a deal like this. If Harang's agent is determined not to come to the bargaining table until after the season, it won't matter how many times the Reds ask him to do so.
Reason #1 why I think he may bolt as soon as he can...........Harang calls the shots......

M2
05-06-2006, 02:59 PM
It takes two to tango on a deal like this. If Harang's agent is determined not to come to the bargaining table until after the season, it won't matter how many times the Reds ask him to do so.

True, but in the wake of the Dunn contract I think we've all learned a valuable lesson in how a player who supposedly doesn't want to negotiate can get signed by a determined executive. I tend to think most every player will ink a contract if you approach him right.

The_jbh
05-06-2006, 07:03 PM
Wonder if he is looking to get out of GAB when he can...............I wouldn't mind signing him to a 3 year deal.....but I wouldn't give any pitcher more than 3 years.....are we going to have to overpay to keep our own pitcher's happy in GAB........


I've been real happy with Harang as well but I have to echo Indyreds opinion here. Don't sign pitchers longer than 3 years. If he still rockin in 3 years, extend it. This club can't afford another 5 or 6 year ablatross if Harang's arm goes to the pooper.

UC_Ken
05-06-2006, 08:06 PM
The reason I said 4 years for Harang is that he has a great frame, a great delivery, and would be 27-31 years old for the duration of the contract. If a pitcher is worth 4 or 5 years it would be this type of pitcher. However, I totally understand your unwillingness to go past 3 years with a pitcher.

redsfanmia
05-06-2006, 08:19 PM
How much longer do the Reds own his rights? Unless the Reds can sign him for a fair price I say keep doing the one year thing until he is in the last year before free agency then we try to sign him longterm if he is still pitching well.

KronoRed
05-06-2006, 08:27 PM
/\ Problem with that is he'll be much more expensive.