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View Full Version : Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?



dougdirt
05-05-2006, 12:57 PM
So I wrote this little peice for my website and basically it compares Jay Bruce with Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns in their first time around the midwest league. Take it all for what its worth, which is pretty much just a little bit of fun to look at. But I thought I would share it with you guys incase you dont check my site.

I just wrote up a little piece for my website on Jay Bruce and his comparison to both Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns as 19 year old outfielders in the Midwest League. Anyways, here you go.

Jay Bruce, the next Reds stud outfielder?

You know, it is really hard to project players in the minor leagues as far as what they will do in the Major Leagues. It is even tougher to do with a player who is still in Single A baseball. So far this season I have been extremely impressed with Jay Bruce, who is currently playing for Dayton in the Midwest League. He is just a month in, as the minor league season started April 6th and today is now May 6th. Bruce has played in 26 games and has put up some impressive stats at the plate. Throw in the fact that he has been through slumps of 0-18 and 1-15 this season and it really jumps out at you.

Like I stated before, there isnít exactly an easy way to project how someone will be as a major league when you are talking about a player who is still in the mow minor leagues like Bruce is. On the other hand, it sure is fun to compare what a player does in the same league as other guys at the same age. Two of the Reds current stud outfielder, Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns both have played in the Midwest league where Jay is currently playing. Lets take a look at their stats for their season in the Midwest League at the age of 19.

Adam Dunn - 1999 Midwest League Season - Age 19
Year AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO Avg Obp Slg
1999 313 62 96 16 2 11 44 46 64 .307 .399 .476

Austin Kearns - 1999 Midwest League Season - Age 19
Year AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO Avg Obp Slg
1999 426 72 110 36 5 13 48 50 120 .258 .340 .458

Jay Bruce - 2006 Midwest League Season - Age 19
Year AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO Avg Obp Slg
2006 104 18 29 9 2 5 18 8 20 .279 .322 ..548


Now lets say Bruce as man at bats as Austin Kearns did in 1999, that would put him on pace for 37 doubles, 21 home runs and 74 RBI. Will he stay on that current pace? No one really knows, but at least early this season, Bruce is showing some good power in his bat and he is producing runs. Not to bad for a kid who some scouts have said that his bat won't come around for a few years.

icehole3
05-05-2006, 01:13 PM
I think he's a lot like Kearns, at least his arm is... he has a rifle arm.

Oxilon
05-05-2006, 01:16 PM
What's the scouting report on Bruce's eye? Seems that he's on a pace to have similiar numbers to Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns for every category besides walks.

traderumor
05-05-2006, 01:22 PM
Bruce seems like a good candidate to either see Sarasota this year or skip it altogether and start next year in Chatty.

edabbs44
05-05-2006, 01:49 PM
It upsets me to see Dunn's averages in the minors. What happened?

BuckU
05-05-2006, 02:06 PM
It upsets me to see Dunn's averages in the minors. What happened?

Major leauge pitching happened.

registerthis
05-05-2006, 04:01 PM
It upsets me to see Dunn's averages in the minors. What happened?

His BA upsets you in spite of the fact that he has an OBP of .385 during his time in the majors? You get upset very easily.

savafan
05-05-2006, 04:20 PM
It upsets me to see Dunn's averages in the minors. What happened?

You think that's bad, look at how far Dunn's OBP has dropped! :eek:

Trade him now! :D


Year Team Name League Age Org. Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP Avg Obp Slg Ops
1998 Billings Pio 18 Cin Rk 34 125 26 36 3 1 4 13 4 2 22 23 3 1 0 1 3 .288 .404 .424 828
1999 Rockford Midw 19 Cin A 93 313 62 96 16 2 11 44 21 9 46 64 .307 *.399 .476 *875
2000 Dayton Midw 20 Cin A 122 420 101 118 29 1 16 79 24 5 100 101 12 4 0 6 10 .281 .428 .469 897
2001 Chattanooga Sou 21 Cin AA 39 140 30 48 9 0 12 31 6 3 24 31 3 1 0 1 .343 *.441 .664 *1105
2001 Louisville IL 21 Cin AAA 55 210 44 69 13 0 20 53 5 1 38 51 3 0 1 1 .329 *.434 .676 *1110
2001 Cincinnati Reds MLB 21 Cin MLB 66 244 54 64 18 1 19 43 4 2 38 74 4 2 0 0 4 .262 .371 .578 949
2002 Cincinnati Reds MLB 22 Cin MLB 158 535 84 133 28 2 26 71 19 9 128 170 9 13 1 3 8 .249 .400 .454 854
2003 Cincinnati Reds MLB 23 Cin MLB 116 381 70 82 12 1 27 57 8 2 74 126 10 8 0 4 4 .215 .354 .465 819
2004 Cincinnati Reds MLB 24 Cin MLB 161 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 6 1 108 195 5 11 0 0 8 .266 .388 .569 957
2005 Cincinnati Reds MLB 25 Cin MLB 160 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 4 2 114 168 12 14 0 2 6 .247 .387 .540 927

KronoRed
05-05-2006, 04:22 PM
Avg has dropped Homers have gone up.

Good trade off if you ask me.

Superdude
05-05-2006, 04:29 PM
What's the scouting report on Bruce's eye?

Everyone said he had good patience when we drafted him, so I wouldn't be too worried yet over 100AB's

BRM
05-05-2006, 04:49 PM
Avg has dropped Homers have gone up.

Good trade off if you ask me.

Strikeouts have went up as well. More K's, more production.

KronoRed
05-05-2006, 05:00 PM
Strikeouts have went up as well. More K's, more production.
I love strike outs

BRM
05-05-2006, 05:02 PM
I love strike outs

Doesn't everyone?

savafan
05-05-2006, 05:06 PM
I love strike outs

strikouts are sKrappy

OnBaseMachine
05-05-2006, 05:44 PM
What's the scouting report on Bruce's eye? Seems that he's on a pace to have similiar numbers to Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns for every category besides walks.

IIRC, Bruce was rated as having the second best plate discipline among high school hitters in the 2005 draft. I think Bruce will take the path of Marlins prospect Jeremy Hermida. He was rated as having great plate discipline coming out of the draft - his walk rates his first year was OK, but it wasn't until year two when he started showing that great eye.

I am very high on Jay Bruce. The power he is showing at 19 years old is very encouraging. I believe he now has 16(9 doubles, 2 triples, 5 home runs) extra-base hits in just over 100 atbats. I hope to see him protecting Adam Dunn in the Reds lineup in a few years.

johngalt
05-07-2006, 12:32 AM
I say let him have a year in Dayton killing the ball and then really start the fast track next season.

Redmachine2003
05-07-2006, 11:13 AM
If Bruce and BJ are both hitting like they are now in the middle of June move them both up to Sarasota and if they are still hitting this way at the end of the year, start them out at AA next year.

OSURedLeg
05-07-2006, 02:08 PM
If Bruce and BJ are both hitting like they are now in the middle of June move them both up to Sarasota and if they are still hitting this way at the end of the year, start them out at AA next year.

I like your enthusiasm, but in the case of Bruce that would just be too much too quick if you ask me. He's still 19 and he is still going to need some coddling before the Reds put him on the fast track. Unless he is really mashing the ball by June, leave him in Dayton to work on the finer points of the game (plate discipline being high on that list). The last thing we need is for him to get overpromoted and start pressing because he thinks he HAS to produce at a high level even though he is still young.