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View Full Version : How Is The Arroyo Trade Lookin' Now?



shredda2000
05-05-2006, 01:00 PM
I know a lot of people on this board wanted Matt Clement instead of Arroyo. So, I decided to do a little research to see how each pitcher is doing. The stats are below:

Year Team G GS W L SV IP H R ER BB K CG SHO ERA WHIP
Clement: 2006 BOS 6 6 3 2 0 35.1 39 23 21 19 25 0 0 5.35 1.64
Arroyo: 2006 CIN 6 6 5 0 0 43.2 29 12 10 10 34 1 0 2.06 0.89

I know it's early and Clement pitches in a tougher division, but if the trend continues (even when Arroyo comes down to earth), I think Arroyo will be the better trade (who would've thunk it?).

Let me know what you think...

BuckU
05-05-2006, 01:05 PM
I know it's early and Clement pitches in a tougher division

I don't think there is a tougher division right now than the NL Central. Arroyo has pitched 4 of his 6 starts against Chicago & St. Louis. Those numbers speak volumes. The Reds got the better pitcher (who, lucky for us, was cheaper anyway).

RedsManRick
05-05-2006, 01:15 PM
While he hasn't exactly gotten a ton of playing time, Wily Mo has put up a .322/.369/.559

I'm definitely pleased with what Arroyo has done, but Wily Mo is doing exactly what you'd expect from him in Boston -- great power, shaky defense.

redsmetz
05-05-2006, 01:17 PM
I don't think there is a tougher division right now than the NL Central. Arroyo has pitched 4 of his 6 starts against Chicago & St. Louis. Those numbers speak volumes. The Reds got the better pitcher (who, lucky for us, was cheaper anyway).

Thank you. I was just going to add this. I believe the NL Central may well be the best division in baseball.

guttle11
05-05-2006, 01:19 PM
Decent.

GAC
05-05-2006, 01:22 PM
Thank you. I was just going to add this. I believe the NL Central may well be the best division in baseball.

Some of the teams in the Central are playing like it is now..... but we'll see as the season progresses. I think they are gonna be some tough races in the other divisions, such as the AL East and West.

And I'd have taken two top pitching prospects for Pena. He was expendable IMO. ;)

Spitball
05-05-2006, 01:41 PM
And I'd have taken two top pitching prospects for Pena. He was expendable IMO. ;)

I'd swap an outfielder for good pitching any ol' day. I don't care if he turns into the next Sammy Sosa. How many World Series did the first Sammy Sosa play in? Pitching wins pennants, slugging outfielders drain the bank account.

savafan
05-05-2006, 01:57 PM
The best news I saw recently was an interview with Arroyo last night where he said he's loving Cincinnati because of how laid back it is there as opposed to Boston. I love it!

Falls City Beer
05-05-2006, 02:00 PM
I imagine Arroyo can enjoy a few Strutter: A Tribute to Kiss shows at Annie's. And certainly catch Gwar at Bogart's. Borrow a few Chastain cassette tapes from locals.

KronoRed
05-05-2006, 02:44 PM
Looks good...at this time.

Johnny Footstool
05-05-2006, 02:59 PM
I love jumping to conclusions a month into the season.

Cedric
05-05-2006, 03:00 PM
Clement has always been overrated. Under league ERA twice in like eight years. His inconsistency is another major factor in staying away from a pitcher like him.

registerthis
05-05-2006, 03:09 PM
I love jumping to conclusions a month into the season.

As if those of us who thought the trade was a good one from the beginning wouldn't be hearing it if Arroyo had started off 0-5 with a 6.50 ERA. To answer the question, the trade looks as good to me now as it did when we made it. I loved it then, and I love it now.

JEA
05-05-2006, 03:25 PM
I'm going to say that I like the trade... without a disclaimer about how it's only May, how he's gotten lucky, blah, blah, blah...

I liked the trade from the first day. Of course, given Arroyo's amazing start, I'm LOVING it right now.

dsmith421
05-05-2006, 03:35 PM
Looks good...at this time.

Has the potential to be the best kind of trade: both teams deal something surplus to requirements, get something they need, and play better baseball as a result.

Caveat Emperor
05-05-2006, 03:36 PM
I like the trade -- and I'll continue to like the trade even if Bronson Arroyo's numbers start to increase as his hit-luck starts to normalize (he's 5th in the majors in BABIP at .192; though, interestingly enough, Pedro Martinez, Chris Young and Chris Capuano are all in the Top-5 as well. Pedro is Pedro, and the latter two, I'm pretty high on). As long as Arroyo hovers around the 4.00 mark and keeps tossing 6-7 innings per night, I like the trade.

His great start has really let him be a difference-maker; now when he falls off, I just hope it's to a level that's still high enough to let him and Harang continue to be an effective 1-2 combination.

deltachi8
05-05-2006, 03:38 PM
call me in July....

Jr's Boy
05-05-2006, 03:44 PM
And certainly catch Gwar at Bogart's. Borrow a few Chastain cassette tapes from locals.
He needs to where is old Boston jersey to the Gwar show.:evil:

Johnny Footstool
05-05-2006, 03:57 PM
As if those of us who thought the trade was a good one from the beginning wouldn't be hearing it if Arroyo had started off 0-5 with a 6.50 ERA. To answer the question, the trade looks as good to me now as it did when we made it. I loved it then, and I love it now.

You'd probably be hearing it from some people.

vaticanplum
05-05-2006, 04:05 PM
call me in July....

I definitely think it's too early to be jumping to any serious positive conclusions...but I also think at this point we're far enough into the season to say that if he starts REALLY sucking, like Eric Milton or 6.5 ERA sucking, it would be very surprising. Something very bad would have to happen now for there to be a sharp drop-off -- I'm hoping the worst that can happen is average. Or, God forbid, an injury.

OnBaseMachine
05-05-2006, 04:28 PM
I hated the trade at first, and then as hours and days passed since the trade I began to like it more and more. Now, of course, I love the trade. Arroyo has been much better than anyone could have expected. Do I expect him to continue to post an ERA in the low 2.00's? No, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish in the 3.30-3.70 range and rack up over 160 K's.

TRF
05-05-2006, 04:31 PM
I still think Arroyo wasn't enough for WMP. And now that Pena is being recognized as a decent to good fielding CF, I firmly believe that Arroyo was not enough. I'm loving Bronson's performance so far. But I am not blind to the fact that Pena is playing very well too.

MartyFan
05-05-2006, 06:00 PM
Ya gotta give something to get something. Pena was not going to play on this team and we NEED(ED) pitching in the worst way. At this point the trade was not just good but great because BOTH teams benefit from the new guys on the roster.

WilyMo may bloom into being a BoSox Icon and that will be fine. He would not reach that potential in Cincy because of all the other things he benefits from in Boston.

Arroyo may play a while here and move on or he may be our new Jose Rijo...whatever, the confidence and wins he has brought may have changed the career direction of who knows how many players on this team and gotten this franchise kickstarted towards respectability again.

Love all around!

RedsMan3203
05-05-2006, 06:09 PM
As long as WilyMo Blossoms in the AL i'll be happy... If he makes it back to the NL to kill the Reds, I won't be that happy about it ;)

Cyclone792
05-05-2006, 06:15 PM
I still think Arroyo wasn't enough for WMP. And now that Pena is being recognized as a decent to good fielding CF, I firmly believe that Arroyo was not enough. I'm loving Bronson's performance so far. But I am not blind to the fact that Pena is playing very well too.

It's been well-known that Pena's better defensively in center field than he is in right field. Still, he's no Freel in center field and he's certainly no Denorfia either.

Offensively, Pena's hitting .322/.369/.559 so far in 65 plate appearances. His PA/BB ratio on the season is now 16.25, which falls right in line with his career PA/BB ratio of 16.60. I'll give Pena credit; he's played well so far in his first 65 Boston plate appearances, though his plate discipline is still well ... nonexistent.

However ...


Month Total PA PA/BB AVG/OBP/SLG AB TB

September '03 99 12.38/1 .273/.354/.500 88 44
April '04 32 10.67/1 .286/.375/.500 28 14
July '04 104 13.00/1 .269/.346/.591 93 55
September '04 43 10.75/1 .282/.349/.615 39 24
April '05 46 23.00/1 .326/.370/.814 43 35
August '05 40 5.71/1 .281/.425/.563 32 18

Totals 364 11.38/1 Total SLG = .588


Month Total PA PA/BB AVG/OBP/SLG AB TB

May '04 26 26.00/1 .240/.269/.600 25 15
June '04 74 24.67/1 .268/.297/.423 71 30
August '04 85 28.33/1 .225/.271/.488 80 39
June '05 82 16.40/1 .247/.293/.455 77 35
July '05 82 41.00/1 .250/.268/.413 80 33
September '05 79 19.75/1 .216/.263/.378 74 28

Totals 428 23.78/1 Total SLG = .442

What Pena has done for the Red Sox so far this season is no surprise; he performed at the same level while with the Reds in six different months during his time here. Of course, Pena had just as many months here in Cincinnati where he wasn't much more than an out machine in our lineup.

I want much, much more than simply 65 plate appearances before I begin judging Pena to have shown any type of improvement since when we dealt him. He's yet to do anything more in Boston than he did during his time with the Reds.

FWIW, I just checked his season gamelog. Pena hasn't even walked once in at least his last 35 plate appearances.

savafan
05-05-2006, 06:42 PM
When the Reds face the Red Sox in the 2006 World Series we'll all know the answer. :)

blumj
05-05-2006, 07:07 PM
FWIW, I just checked his season gamelog. Pena hasn't even walked once in at least his last 35 plate appearances.
He singled on a 3-0 pitch yesterday. I have no idea why he was swinging on 3-0. And he's been hitting mostly 8th, right in front of the pitcher, I mean Alex Gonzalez.

Cedric
05-05-2006, 07:22 PM
Freel isn't better than Pena in CF. Freel has below average instincts and makes bonehead plays just like Wily Mo.

Neither is great, but the defensive difference shouldn't matter in any discussion. In my view both are adequate, neither being way above the other.
Denorfia is the better CF, not Freel.

Reds Nd2
05-05-2006, 07:29 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5044

As Borges may have written, "Time forks perpetually into countless futures. In one of them, the Reds win the NL Central." Almost universally viewed as the division's doormat this season, the Reds are in the unlikely position of looking down on the rest of the league. But despite their 20-9 record, Clay Davenport's Playoff Odds have them behind the Brewers and Astros--both with worse actual records--because of their underlying performances. Joe Sheehan has already looked at a few reasons why that is, but today, let's take a closer look at a player who's getting a lot of press as being partly responsible for that hot start.

Todd Helton and Scott Rolen aren't the only baseball figures battling illness as of late. More than a few baseball analysts have come down with a bad case of the Aprils, particularly where Bronson Arroyo is concerned. On ESPN the other night, John Kruk mentioned that the Reds would remain in the hunt for the Division crown all summer because Arroyo was "a proven winner." Even GM Wayne Krivsky has shared his $.02, saying:


"Here we were, trying to fly under the radar. It's true we have had a lot of good things happen so far. Arroyo's been terrific, but we were only able to get him because the Red Sox had an excess of starting pitching and they needed an outfielder. The naysayers said he was a fly-ball pitcher coming to a fly-ball ballpark, but he knows how to pitch."
We can all probably agree that this is more diplomacy than analysis. But that doesn't change the fact that it's obviously not really naysaying when you have a fly-ball pitcher--one who recently lost a few K's from his strikeout rate--moving to a home run park; that's just pointing out some history, however unfortunate. Also unfortunate is that the Reds haven't exactly had great success with that kind of pitcher before.

The drop in strikeout rate from 2004 is what's worrisome, since that means more balls in play. The Reds haven't fielded a good defensive team since 2000 (when they ranked 3rd in the majors), and they didn't figure to be a top-shelf defensive team this year. Bringing a league-average pitcher into a park that inflates home runs to play in front of a suspect-to-competent defense is just asking for it. But lost in all of this is the fact that, when Krivsky made these remarks, Arroyo had exactly one start at Great American Ball Park. He's since made one more. But he's not succeeding despite GABP; he just hasn't had to deal with it yet (the Reds, as a whole, have also faced below-average offense so far—that helps, too).

In addition to this home/road discrepancy--and the uber-low .193 BABIP that Joe Sheehan mentioned the other day--Arroyo has seen a marked improvement in his L/R splits. From 2003-2005, opponents mustered the following performances against him:



AVG OBP SLG OPS
-----------------------------
vs. L .275 .338 .455 .793
vs. R .228 .281 .366 .647

To be overly simplistic about it, right-handed batters were Neifi Perez, while lefties were somewhere between Trot Nixon and Andruw Jones. This season is another story:



AVG OBP SLG OPS
-----------------------------
vs. L .171 .222 .303 .525
vs. R .193 .239 .386 .624

Arroyo's performance against righties isn't that out of line with what he's done in the past. His performance against lefties, though, is another symptom of the Aprils, and a case where we should probably side with history until given a compelling reason not to.

Cyclone792
05-05-2006, 07:36 PM
He singled on a 3-0 pitch yesterday. I have no idea why he was swinging on 3-0. And he's been hitting mostly 8th, right in front of the pitcher, I mean Alex Gonzalez.

Pena's plate discipline is awful, it always has been, and that's why he's hitting 8th in front of Alex Gonzalez. It's most definitely not the other way around. Here's his PAs by count for the season:

Hitter's Count: 18 outta 65 (27.69 percent)
Pitcher's Count: 21 outta 65 (32.31 percent)
Even Count: 26 outta 65 (40 percent)
Two-Strike Count: 26 outta 65 (40 percent)

And the hitting/pitching count numbers for Pena this season parallel his career numbers, which are quite poor. While with the Reds, Pena made a habit of getting stuck in lousy batting counts and never figuring out what a walk was. So far with Boston, Pena's still making a habit of getting stuck in lousy batting counts and hasn't yet figured out what a walk is. His good start in Boston isn't at all unlike any one of a half dozen good stretches he had with the Reds.

The only thing that has changed since previous seasons is that Pena's BABIP - which he can control only to a certain degree - is .432 this season compared to his career mark of .324. I don't doubt that Pena has the ability to put up a .350 BABIP because he hits the ball so hard when he does make contact, but .432 is just out of the realm of possible over the long haul. When his BABIP drops, and I'm certain it will, his overall line will drop unless he starts figuring out the strike zone.

Wily Mo Pena in early 2006 is still the same no-plate-discipline lottery ticket player that he was from 2003-2005 with the Reds.

Patrick Bateman
05-05-2006, 08:07 PM
Freel isn't better than Pena in CF.

I've watched them both plat alot of CF, and Freel sure looks alot better. It isn't even that close.

remdog
05-05-2006, 08:36 PM
By MartyFan: "Pena was not going to play on this team" Sure he was. The starting OF, left to right, was to be Pena, Griffey, Kearnes with Dunn moving to (his better position) 1st base. With Jr. down with injuries on top of it, Pena probably would have been on a pace to play about 161 games. ;)

Rem

Cedric
05-05-2006, 08:45 PM
I've watched them both plat alot of CF, and Freel sure looks alot better. It isn't even that close.

I'm glad you've watched them alot. I just got into the Reds this year.

It's opinion.

I find Freel to be overly aggresive and devoid of any outfield instincts. His speed doesn't make up for his horrible instincts and routes to the baseball. Pena was fine in CF.

blumj
05-05-2006, 11:32 PM
Pena appears devoid of much in the way of instincts himself. Just tonight, he comes charging in on a ball that looked like it would have hit him in the face if he'd just stood there, has to leap to barely make the catch, and lands on his butt. Sure, it's entertaining, just not exactly comforting.

Patrick Bateman
05-06-2006, 12:53 AM
I'm glad you've watched them alot. I just got into the Reds this year.

It's opinion.

I find Freel to be overly aggresive and devoid of any outfield instincts. His speed doesn't make up for his horrible instincts and routes to the baseball. Pena was fine in CF.

I guess that's where we disagree. I have always found that Freel has decent (but not great) instincts in CF while Pena well below average, though I do agree Pena's best position is CF. I think in time Pena may become a good defender because he has the tools required, but I just don't see it yet IMO.

SteelSD
05-06-2006, 02:50 AM
Pena's plate discipline is awful, it always has been, and that's why he's hitting 8th in front of Alex Gonzalez. It's most definitely not the other way around. Here's his PAs by count for the season:

Hitter's Count: 18 outta 65 (27.69 percent)
Pitcher's Count: 21 outta 65 (32.31 percent)
Even Count: 26 outta 65 (40 percent)
Two-Strike Count: 26 outta 65 (40 percent)

And the hitting/pitching count numbers for Pena this season parallel his career numbers, which are quite poor. While with the Reds, Pena made a habit of getting stuck in lousy batting counts and never figuring out what a walk was. So far with Boston, Pena's still making a habit of getting stuck in lousy batting counts and hasn't yet figured out what a walk is. His good start in Boston isn't at all unlike any one of a half dozen good stretches he had with the Reds.

The only thing that has changed since previous seasons is that Pena's BABIP - which he can control only to a certain degree - is .432 this season compared to his career mark of .324. I don't doubt that Pena has the ability to put up a .350 BABIP because he hits the ball so hard when he does make contact, but .432 is just out of the realm of possible over the long haul. When his BABIP drops, and I'm certain it will, his overall line will drop unless he starts figuring out the strike zone.

Wily Mo Pena in early 2006 is still the same no-plate-discipline lottery ticket player that he was from 2003-2005 with the Reds.

Nice analysis, but Wily Mo Pena is a player we haven't actually ever seen. We've maybe seen glimpses of Wily Mo in the play of Juan Gonzalez, but other than that he's a baseball Bigfoot who's come out into the open. Marvelous this whole history thing is. And interesting is that folks who supported the trade based on the idea that Arroyo is Bigfoot as well (i.e. that Arroyo is the oddity who control his BABIP).

If Pena can keep up the current pace, he'd finish with 7.51 RC/27 Outs. That would have ranked 8th in the AL in 2005. His current Zone Rating in Center Field is 1.000 (7 Games, 6 Games started). Low sample size indeed. But encouraging to a guy (me) who's always advocated Pena in CF. He quite obviously fields better given that position and always has.

PECOTA has a five year projection at:

2006: .282 BA/.345 OBP/.558 SLG- .903 OPS
2007: .289 BA/.353 OBP/.570 SLG- .923 OPS
2008: .290 BA/.363 OBP/.595 SLG- .958 OPS
2009: .293 BA/.364 OBP/.589 SLG- .953 OPS
2010: .287 BA/.358 OBP/.584 SLG- .942 OPS

Pena's Similarlity Score (39) is fairly low, but it's not as low as it used to be. I attribute that to the fact to Pena's big bunch of on-the-job training due to his contract.

Right now Arroyo is dramatically outperforming his expected BABIP as well as his PECOTA. His DIPS is 4.07 right now. His DIPS rate (1.98) is the fourth highest in Major League Baseball. His BABIP (.192) is the seventh-lowest in all of baseball. It's great that we've seen nothing but the best possible results from Arroyo's offerings, but that can't continue. It's simply a rule of the game.

It's early in the season, but I've yet to see a realistic argument for trading a likely .900+ OPS hitter for a likely 4.00+ ERA pitcher. It comes back to the same thing I've said all along- Run Differential swapping simply isn't a good idea if all you're doing is robbing from an offense to give to the pitching and defense. Problem is that doesn't win games. It just prolongs the losing while giving folks hope that the winning can continue. For Pena, the Reds should have received more. It's a shame they didn't because they have limited trade chips. They blew two (Casey, Pena) for a grand total of not much unless the dice come up big on the roll.

Cyclone792
05-06-2006, 04:02 AM
Nice analysis, but Wily Mo Pena is a player we haven't actually ever seen. We've maybe seen glimpses of Wily Mo in the play of Juan Gonzalez, but other than that he's a baseball Bigfoot who's come out into the open. Marvelous this whole history thing is. And interesting is that folks who supported the trade based on the idea that Arroyo is Bigfoot as well (i.e. that Arroyo is the oddity who control his BABIP).

If Pena can keep up the current pace, he'd finish with 7.51 RC/27 Outs. That would have ranked 8th in the AL in 2005. His current Zone Rating in Center Field is 1.000 (7 Games, 6 Games started). Low sample size indeed. But encouraging to a guy (me) who's always advocated Pena in CF. He quite obviously fields better given that position and always has.

PECOTA has a five year projection at:

2006: .282 BA/.345 OBP/.558 SLG- .903 OPS
2007: .289 BA/.353 OBP/.570 SLG- .923 OPS
2008: .290 BA/.363 OBP/.595 SLG- .958 OPS
2009: .293 BA/.364 OBP/.589 SLG- .953 OPS
2010: .287 BA/.358 OBP/.584 SLG- .942 OPS

Pena's Similarlity Score (39) is fairly low, but it's not as low as it used to be. I attribute that to the fact to Pena's big bunch of on-the-job training due to his contract.

Right now Arroyo is dramatically outperforming his expected BABIP as well as his PECOTA. His DIPS is 4.07 right now. His DIPS rate (1.98) is the fourth highest in Major League Baseball. His BABIP (.192) is the seventh-lowest in all of baseball. It's great that we've seen nothing but the best possible results from Arroyo's offerings, but that can't continue. It's simply a rule of the game.

It's early in the season, but I've yet to see a realistic argument for trading a likely .900+ OPS hitter for a likely 4.00+ ERA pitcher. It comes back to the same thing I've said all along- Run Differential swapping simply isn't a good idea if all you're doing is robbing from an offense to give to the pitching and defense. Problem is that doesn't win games. It just prolongs the losing while giving folks hope that the winning can continue. For Pena, the Reds should have received more. It's a shame they didn't because they have limited trade chips. They blew two (Casey, Pena) for a grand total of not much unless the dice come up big on the roll.

I definitely agree that Arroyo is drastically overperforming his expected results, and I do think he will drop back to earth well before this season concludes, perhaps before we flip the calendars over to June. In fact, even considering Arroyo's first month, if he finishes the season with an ERA below 3.50 I'll be pleasantly surprised. His BABIP ~.200 won't continue, and when it starts to level off we'll be faced with the task of having to give him some run support to come out victorious in some of his starts. However, given the nature of our offense, even when Arroyo's BABIP is leveling off, I'm confident that he'll give us a solid chance to win in the bulk of his remaining starts, and sadly he'll still be our second best starting pitcher. It's not a knock on Bronson, but we both know that a 4.00 ERA is more along the lines of what we should expect from him. Sadly, that's still in the territory of being our second best starting pitcher.

As far as Pena, I just don't ever see those OBPs that PECOTA is projecting. Averaging out those five seasons, that's an OBP of .357, and if Pena is ever able to put up a .357 OBP in any season where he has significant plate appearances, I will be beyond shocked. If I thought those OBPs were possible for Pena in a full season, then I would wholeheartedly agree that the return of Arroyo wasn't enough. But even right now after tonight's game, he has a .362 OBP, and he's doing it with the help of a .425 BABIP. The odds of Pena being able to keep his BABIP at .425 are probably close to the odds of Arroyo keeping his BABIP allowed around the .200 mark, which isn't very good for either one of them. Pena does hit the ball as hard as anybody I've ever seen, but even accounting for that, a BABIP over .400 for an entire season is far too much to ask.

You're right that Pena is a Bigfoot, and IMO that's part of the problem with the PECOTA projection for him. We've never seen a player like him before at his age, and I'm not sure the system can accurately project his future performance with any degree of certainty. If he could show us that he's able to post a PA/BB ratio under 12, then I'd have plenty of faith in his ability to put up the numbers that PECOTA projects. But he hasn't been able to figure out the strike zone, and unless he improves his ability to do so, I'm having a hard time believing those OBPs are possible. For Pena to put up a .350+ OBP, something has to give. Either his BABIP has to be beyond unreal, or he has to start taking quite a few more walks than he currently does.

BTW, what's the full line in one of those PECOTA projections? Plate appearances, at bats, Hits, singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, strikeouts, etc. I'm actually kind of curious what structure of counting stats they believe he'll put up to come up with those rate stats. What I'm most curious about is what sort of BABIP they've got him pegged down for as well as what kind of walk rate.

I think Theo took a well-positioned low risk/high reward chance with the trade based on the makeup of the Red Sox roster. He gave up a surplus for a need, and picked up a chance to win huge, all of which I can't blame him for at all. I just think the chance to win huge is extraordinarily low. Honestly, based on our surplus and needs, I flip Pena for Arroyo every time. Likewise, if I'm in Theo's shoes, based on Boston's surplus and needs, I flip Arroyo for Pena every time. Ultimately, I think it's a trade that helps both teams.

Wily Mo has sick talent, and for his sake I'd love to see him figure out the strike zone and put it all together. He hits the ball very hard when he makes contact, but unfortunately IMO, poor plate discipline may possibly be the great travesty in Wily Mo's career.

Handofdeath
05-06-2006, 11:11 AM
I definitely agree that Arroyo is drastically overperforming his expected results, and I do think he will drop back to earth well before this season concludes, perhaps before we flip the calendars over to June. In fact, even considering Arroyo's first month, if he finishes the season with an ERA below 3.50 I'll be pleasantly surprised. His BABIP ~.200 won't continue, and when it starts to level off we'll be faced with the task of having to give him some run support to come out victorious in some of his starts. However, given the nature of our offense, even when Arroyo's BABIP is leveling off, I'm confident that he'll give us a solid chance to win in the bulk of his remaining starts, and sadly he'll still be our second best starting pitcher. It's not a knock on Bronson, but we both know that a 4.00 ERA is more along the lines of what we should expect from him. Sadly, that's still in the territory of being our second best starting pitcher.

As far as Pena, I just don't ever see those OBPs that PECOTA is projecting. Averaging out those five seasons, that's an OBP of .357, and if Pena is ever able to put up a .357 OBP in any season where he has significant plate appearances, I will be beyond shocked. If I thought those OBPs were possible for Pena in a full season, then I would wholeheartedly agree that the return of Arroyo wasn't enough. But even right now after tonight's game, he has a .362 OBP, and he's doing it with the help of a .425 BABIP. The odds of Pena being able to keep his BABIP at .425 are probably close to the odds of Arroyo keeping his BABIP allowed around the .200 mark, which isn't very good for either one of them. Pena does hit the ball as hard as anybody I've ever seen, but even accounting for that, a BABIP over .400 for an entire season is far too much to ask.

You're right that Pena is a Bigfoot, and IMO that's part of the problem with the PECOTA projection for him. We've never seen a player like him before at his age, and I'm not sure the system can accurately project his future performance with any degree of certainty. If he could show us that he's able to post a PA/BB ratio under 12, then I'd have plenty of faith in his ability to put up the numbers that PECOTA projects. But he hasn't been able to figure out the strike zone, and unless he improves his ability to do so, I'm having a hard time believing those OBPs are possible. For Pena to put up a .350+ OBP, something has to give. Either his BABIP has to be beyond unreal, or he has to start taking quite a few more walks than he currently does.

I think Theo took a well-positioned low risk/high reward chance with the trade based on the makeup of the Red Sox roster. He gave up a surplus for a need, and picked up a chance to win huge, all of which I can't blame him for at all. I just think the chance to win huge is extraordinarily low. Honestly, based on our surplus and needs, I flip Pena for Arroyo every time. Likewise, if I'm in Theo's shoes, based on Boston's surplus and needs, I flip Arroyo for Pena every time. Ultimately, I think it's a trade that helps both teams.

Wily Mo has sick talent, and for his sake I'd love to see him figure out the strike zone and put it all together. He hits the ball very hard when he makes contact, but unfortunately IMO, poor plate discipline may possibly be the great travesty in Wily Mo's career.

Of course if the Rangers had been willing to give the Sox Kevin Mench we would not be having this conversation. Think about that one.

Reds Nd2
05-06-2006, 12:25 PM
BTW, what's the full line in one of those PECOTA projections? Plate appearances, at bats, Hits, singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, strikeouts, etc. I'm actually kind of curious what structure of counting stats they believe he'll put up to come up with those rate stats. What I'm most curious about is what sort of BABIP they've got him pegged down for as well as what kind of walk rate.


Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG VORP Defense WARP
2006 (age 24) 382 57 20 1 25 63 29 107 4 2 4.9 .282 .345 .558 4.0 91-RF -3 3.2
2007 (age 25) 449 74 25 1 29 78 35 118 5 2 4.6 .289 .352 .570 7.9 106-RF -2 3.8
2008 (age 26) 466 83 24 1 33 83 42 124 7 3 4.5 .290 .363 .595 34.3 110-RF -1 4.4
2009 (age 27) 513 95 27 1 35 93 46 127 7 3 4.6 .293 .364 .589 34.6 121-RF -4 4.3
2010 (age 28) 472 82 25 1 32 84 42 118 6 2 4.5 .287 .358 .584 30.7 112-RF -3 4.0

Maldez
05-06-2006, 01:09 PM
Obviously, it's way too early to make a final proclamation, but it looks like Krivsky knows what he's doing (which is even more important than any single trade).

How many of you think Dan O'Brien would've done the same deal?

Cyclone792
05-06-2006, 03:17 PM
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG VORP Defense WARP
2006 (age 24) 382 57 20 1 25 63 29 107 4 2 4.9 .282 .345 .558 4.0 91-RF -3 3.2
2007 (age 25) 449 74 25 1 29 78 35 118 5 2 4.6 .289 .352 .570 7.9 106-RF -2 3.8
2008 (age 26) 466 83 24 1 33 83 42 124 7 3 4.5 .290 .363 .595 34.3 110-RF -1 4.4
2009 (age 27) 513 95 27 1 35 93 46 127 7 3 4.6 .293 .364 .589 34.6 121-RF -4 4.3
2010 (age 28) 472 82 25 1 32 84 42 118 6 2 4.5 .287 .358 .584 30.7 112-RF -3 4.0

Thanks for the numbers, Nd2. The figures aren't exact since I didn't bother with HBP, SF etc., but this is what it looks like PECOTA's projecting for Pena:


PA/BB PA/K BABIP
Pena Career 16.67 3.14 .324
Pena PECOTA 11.76 3.84 .335

Yowza, I'm not sure about some of this.

Over the next five seasons PECOTA's got Pena with a cumalative BABIP of .335. That's incredible, and even though Pena's the type of hitter more likely to put up a high BABIP, I'm not sure it's wise to expect a .335 mark out of him.

And then there's the walk rate. If I had confidence in Pena walking every 12 plate appearances, I'd be much, much higher on him as a hitter. But even in the minor leagues his PA/BB rate was 14.93, not really that close to being sub 12.

I don't know, it seems as though PECOTA is unusually high on him. He's still got age on his side for the time being, and I hope Pena can actually do it, but I just don't like his chances.

Reds Nd2
05-06-2006, 10:31 PM
Thanks for the numbers, Nd2. The figures aren't exact since I didn't bother with HBP, SF etc., but this is what it looks like PECOTA's projecting for Pena:


PA/BB PA/K BABIP
Pena Career 16.67 3.14 .324
Pena PECOTA 11.76 3.84 .335


No problem providing the numbers, I was happy to do it. I've got a question though. How did you figure his projected BABIP?

I was curious about just how many hits/HR's would there be between his career and the projected numbers you provided for BABIP. I'm just guessing that it's not going to be that big a difference and could be explained by his HBP, SF etc., with catchers interferance being a wash in his total at bats.

I was using BABIP = (H's-HR's)/(AB's-HR's-K's), but with the numbers I posted from BP, I can't ascertain either his hits or his at bats. What am I missing?

Cyclone792
05-07-2006, 01:24 AM
No problem providing the numbers, I was happy to do it. I've got a question though. How did you figure his projected BABIP?

I was curious about just how many hits/HR's would there be between his career and the projected numbers you provided for BABIP. I'm just guessing that it's not going to be that big a difference and could be explained by his HBP, SF etc., with catchers interferance being a wash in his total at bats.

I was using BABIP = (H's-HR's)/(AB's-HR's-K's), but with the numbers I posted from BP, I can't ascertain either his hits or his at bats. What am I missing?

It isn't exact, but I simply subtracted the walks totals from the plate appearance totals to come up with the at bat figures. Then I used the batting average figure to determine the approximate number of hits.

Example from the 2006 line: 382 PAs minus 29 walks is 353 at bats. In order to post a .282 batting average in 353 at bats, Pena needs 99-100 hits. Then just use the BABIP formula: (100 - 25) / (353 - 25 - 107) = .339 BABIP, or (99 - 25) / (353 - 25 -107) = .335 BABIP.

Another way is just assume Pena has 10 plate appearances of either the HBP or SF variety. Then we'd get something like ... 382 PAs minus 29 walks minus 10 PAs for HBP/SF for 343 at bats. A .282 batting average in 343 at bats is 96-97 hits. So we'd get (97 - 25) / (343 - 25 - 107) = .341 BABIP, or (96 -25) / (343 - 25 -107) = .336 BABIP.

Again, it's not exact, but we're getting a ballpark figure in the .335 to .340 BABIP range for 2006 based on PECOTA's projections for Pena.

RedsManRick
05-07-2006, 01:46 AM
I imagine PECOTA is touchy for guys like Pena. There doesn't seem to be much middle ground for comps. Either he figures it out and becomes an absolute monster ala Sosa or he doesn't and remains a Rob Deer / Dave Kingman type. Apparently PECOTA has him going the Sosa route.

SteelSD
05-07-2006, 04:14 AM
I imagine PECOTA is touchy for guys like Pena. There doesn't seem to be much middle ground for comps. Either he figures it out and becomes an absolute monster ala Sosa or he doesn't and remains a Rob Deer / Dave Kingman type. Apparently PECOTA has him going the Sosa route.

And yet, the non-PECOTA projections for Arroyo around these parts also assume that Arroyo is an outlier who can control his BABIP.

I don't mind that folks note that Pena has low comp/similarity scores as long as we're being consistent.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2006, 10:38 AM
And yet, the non-PECOTA projections for Arroyo around these parts also assume that Arroyo is an outlier who can control his BABIP.

I don't mind that folks note that Pena has low comp/similarity scores as long as we're being consistent.

I'm not sure anyone other than a complete rube could think Arroyo can "control" his BABIP.

That's a straw man argument. I personally am not dead set on tearing down Pena--his career numbers do that just fine, he's no longer a Red, and frankly who gives a damn--this team oozes offense. I'm aware of what Arroyo is and what he is most likely to give the team (though I believe he can give the Reds closer to a 3.50 ERA, .700 OPSA). And I think that's just fine, considering that Pena, if he were still on this team, would likely get no more than his standard 300 ABs per season--not enough to countervail the production Arroyo will give over 32 starts this season (that is, unless, another outfielder was traded).

And as to the argument that Pena could have netted better--that's an argument that leads nowhere, finally, because it's unproveable either way. I'd prefer to examine what did happen and view the merits/demerits therein.

MartyFan
05-07-2006, 11:20 AM
Sure he was. The starting OF, left to right, was to be Pena, Griffey, Kearnes with Dunn moving to (his better position) 1st base. With Jr. down with injuries on top of it, Pena probably would have been on a pace to play about 161 games. ;)

Rem

Hope your joking...that was only going to happen if DanO stuck around.

In ST Dunn played how much at 1B?

We didn't need the strength of Pena as a 4th OF when we have guys like Freel, Deno and others who can fill in when someone needs a rest or goes down...we DESPERTELY needed a pitcher like Arroyo.